All language subtitles for Yellowstone.Supervolcano.2015.WEBRip.x264-ION10English

Narrator: IT'S NATURE AT
ITS MOST SAVAGE AND FEARSOME--

VOLCANIC BLASTS,

SPEWING PILLARS
OF SUPERHOT CLOUDS SKYWARD,

UNLEASHING HURRICANES
OF MOLTEN ROCK AND FIRE.

BUT AS AWESOME
AS PAST ERUPTIONS HAVE BEEN,

ONE COMING ERUPTION IS DESTINED
TO CHANGE LIFE ON OUR PLANET...

KILLING MILLIONS OF PEOPLE,

ALTERING THE EARTH'S CLIMATE,

CREATING WORLD-WIDE FAMINE.

Woman: IT WOULD BE SO MASSIVE.
IT WOULD HAVE SUCH IMPACTS.

IT'S HARD TO FATHOM.

Man: THIS WOULD TRULY
BE A CATASTROPHIC EVENT

ON A GLOBAL SCALE.

Narrator: AND THE SOURCE
OF THIS MONSTROUS DEVASTATION

LURKS JUST MILES
BELOW THE SURFACE

OF AMERICA'S
FIRST NATIONAL PARK.

Reporter: WE ARE DIRECTLY OVER
MT. ST. HELENS RIGHT NOW,

AND THERE IS NO QUESTION AT ALL

THAT THE VOLCANIC ACTIVITY
HAS BEGUN.

Narrator: MAY 18, 1980.

8:32 A.M.

A 5.1 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE
ROCKS MT. ST. HELENS

IN SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON STATE

AND TRIGGERS
THE DEADLIEST VOLCANIC ERUPTION

IN U.S. HISTORY.

Man on radio: NORTHWEST SIDE
IS SLIDING DOWN.

ALL RIGHT, WE GOT IT, BOYS.

THE WHOLE NORTHWEST SECTION.

Narrator: IN MINUTES,
A MUSHROOM-SHAPED CLOUD

SHOOTS UP TEN MILES HIGH.

BELOW THE CLOUD,

SUPERHEATED FLOWS
OF ROCK AND DEBRIS

SURGE OUT OF THE CRATER,
RACING OVER THE LAND,

INCINERATING
EVERYTHING IN ITS PATH.

NO ONE IS PREPARED
FOR THE CHAOS.

Man: GET OFF THE BRIDGE!

Narrator: A RIVER,
SWOLLEN WITH MUD AND DEBRIS,

RAGES OUT OF CONTROL.

THE DEVASTATION IS IMMENSE.

EVERYTHING WITHIN
A 230-SQUARE-MILE AREA

OF THE MOUNTAIN IS OBLITERATED.

57 PEOPLE ARE KILLED,

AND THOUSANDS OF ACRES
DESTROYED.

BY MIDDAY, THE ERUPTION ENDS,

LEAVING A ONCE SERENE AND
BEAUTIFUL REGION A WASTELAND.

A GRACEFUL CONE-SHAPED VOLCANO
IS NOW A BLASTED STUMP,

AND A NATION IS IN AWE
OF NATURE'S DESTRUCTIVE POWER.

BUT THERE'S
ONE VOLCANO IN THE U.S.

WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO WREAK DEVASTATION

ON A FAR GREATER SCALE.

IT'S LOCATED 575 MILES AWAY
FROM MT. ST. HELENS,

IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF WYOMING.

FOR OVER A CENTURY,
TENS OF MILLIONS OF VISITORS

HAVE MARVELED AT YELLOWSTONE'S
BREATHTAKING SCENERY.

BUT BENEATH THIS SPECTACULAR
BEAUTY LIES A TICKING TIME BOMB.

WE GET A GLIMPSE OF IT EACH DAY
FROM OLD FAITHFUL.

EVERY 90 MINUTES,
THIS FAMOUS GEYSER

SHOOTS OVER 8,000 GALLONS OF
BOILING WATER 18 STORIES HIGH.

A TOURIST ATTRACTION,
BUT FAR FROM BENIGN.

YELLOWSTONE IS ONE

OF THE LARGEST VOLCANIC SYSTEMS
ON EARTH.

SCIENTISTS
CALL IT A SUPERVOLCANO

BECAUSE OF THE SIZE
OF PAST EXPLOSIONS.

Ben Andrews:
THE CRITERIA THAT WE USE

TO DECIDE WHETHER
AN ERUPTION IS A SUPER-ERUPTION

IS ESSENTIALLY
THE VOLUME OF THE ERUPTION,

AND THAT IS, IF AN ERUPTION
HAS MORE THAN 240 CUBIC MILES,

OR 1,000 CUBIC KILOMETERS
OF PUMICE AND ASH

THAT CAME OUT IN THAT ONE EVENT,
THEN IT'S A SUPER-ERUPTION.

Narrator: THERE HAVE BEEN
THREE SUPER-ERUPTIONS

AT YELLOWSTONE
OVER THE LAST 2.1 MILLION YEARS.

THE LAST BIG ONE
WAS 640,000 YEARS AGO;

THE ONE BEFORE THAT,
666,000 YEARS PRIOR.

WHICH LEAVES MANY TO WONDER
WHAT'S NEXT.

THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS
THAT SOMETHING UNUSUAL

MAY BE HAPPENING IN THE PARK.

IN 2004, FIVE BISON WERE
FOUND DEAD IN A GEYSER BASIN.

Hank Heasler: THEY WEREN'T
IN A TYPICAL DEATH POSE,

KIND OF LIKE A CAT
THAT'S CURLED UP.

IT LOOKS LIKE
THEY'D JUST FALLEN OVER.

WE THINK IT WAS JUST A VERY COLD
NIGHT, A VERY STILL NIGHT.

THE GEOTHERMAL GASES
ACCUMULATED,

AND THE BISON JUST BASICALLY
DROPPED WHERE THEY STOOD.

Narrator:
THE GASES WERE IDENTIFIED

AS HYDROGEN SULFIDE
AND CARBON DIOXIDE,

TWO COMPONENTS OF WHAT'S FOUND
JUST BELOW THE GROUND

AT YELLOWSTONE--
BOILING-HOT MAGMA.

THE YELLOWSTONE SUPERVOLCANO

SITS ON WHAT GEOLOGISTS
CALL A HOT SPOT.

UNLIKE OTHER VOLCANOES
IN THE WORLD,

YELLOWSTONE ISN'T CONE-SHAPED
WITH A CRATER AT THE TOP.

INSTEAD, IT'S A CALDERA,

A LARGE DEPRESSION IN THE EARTH
50 MILES LONG BY 30 MILES WIDE,

FORMED DURING
ITS LAST MAJOR ERUPTION.

YOU CAN BE STANDING
ON THE CALDERA

WITHOUT REALIZING
YOU'RE STANDING

IN THE CRATER
OF AN ACTIVE VOLCANO,

ONE THAT'S ERUPTED OVER 25 TIMES
SINCE ITS LAST SUPER-BLAST.

Andrews:
YELLOWSTONE IS MOST FAMOUS

FOR ITS VERY LARGE
SUPER-ERUPTIONS.

HOWEVER, THERE HAVE BEEN
A SERIES OF OTHER ERUPTIONS.

THESE ARE SMALLER
THAN SUPER-ERUPTIONS,

BUT THEY'RE STILL
ENORMOUS EVENTS,

50 OR SO TIMES AS BIG
AS MT. ST. HELENS.

Narrator: GIVEN ITS PAST, THE
NEXT YELLOWSTONE SUPER-ERUPTION

COULD BE THE LARGEST NATURAL
DISASTER IN RECORDED HISTORY.

IN OUR LIFETIME, WE HAVE NOTHING
TO COMPARE IT WITH.

THE ICELANDIC VOLCANIC ERUPTION
IN 2010

GROUNDED FLIGHTS
AROUND THE WORLD FOR A WEEK,

CAUSING THE BIGGEST AIR TRAVEL
SHUTDOWN SINCE WORLD WAR II,

BUT IT DOESN'T COME CLOSE TO
WHAT YELLOWSTONE'S CAPABLE OF.

A YELLOWSTONE SUPER-ERUPTION

WOULD EJECT
OVER 1,000 CUBIC KILOMETERS,

240 CUBIC MILES,

OF PUMICE AND ASH
FROM DEEP WITHIN THE EARTH.

Michael Rampino: WHICH WOULD
COME OUT OF THE VOLCANO

AND DESTROY ALL--
EVERYTHING IN ITS PATH.

Jake Lowenstern:
1,000 CUBIC KILOMETERS IS ENOUGH

TO BURY THE STATE OF TEXAS
ABOUT FIVE FEET DEEP.

Bob Smith: IT WOULD BE
ROUGHLY THE EQUIVALENT VOLUME

OF THE SIZE
OF THE GRAND CANYON TWICE.

Narrator:
THE EXPLOSION WOULD ALSO RELEASE

FEROCIOUS AVALANCHES
OF HOT ASH, PUMICE, AND GAS,

CALLED PYROCLASTIC FLOWS.

Andrews: THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY

LIKE SUPER-HEATED
SANDBLASTING CLOUDS

THAT CAN DESTROY PRETTY MUCH
EVERYTHING IN THEIR PATH

THROUGH EITHER KNOCKING IT DOWN
OR SANDBLASTING IT TO BITS

OR SETTING
THE RESULTING DEBRIS ON FIRE.

Narrator: CASE IN POINT--
THE 1995 VOLCANIC ERUPTION

ON THE CARIBBEAN ISLAND
OF MONTSERRAT.

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
SURGED DOWN THE MOUNTAIN

AND INTO
THE CAPITAL CITY OF PLYMOUTH,

BURYING IT UNDER MORE THAN
30 FEET OF MUD AND ASH,

RENDERING IT UNINHABITABLE.

WHILE PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
SEAR THE LAND,

THE VOLCANIC ASH
IN THE AIR IS DEADLY.

Lori Dengler: THIS IS A BOMB.

THIS IS A BOMB ACTUALLY FROM
MT. ST. HELENS, 1980 ERUPTION,

AND WHEN YOU'RE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THE VOLCANO

AND YOU GET BIG GLOPS OF MAGMA
AND LAVA THAT END UP IN THE AIR,

THEN THEY COOL,
LITERALLY, IN THE AIR

AND THEN COME DOWN
AS A BIG, HEAVY, SOLID CHUNK.

IN THE CASE
OF MT. ST. HELENS,

SOME OF THESE BOMBS
WERE THIS BIG OR THIS BIG,

BUT WE'VE CERTAINLY SEEN,
IN OTHER PLACES,

BOMBS THAT ARE
AS LARGE AS A HOUSE.

Narrator: THESE BOMBS ARE MIXED
WITH TONS OF VOLCANIC ASH,

BUT IT'S NOT THE POWDERY RESIDUE
YOU SEE IN YOUR FIREPLACE.

SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION
GEOLOGIST BEN ANDREWS

IS AN EXPERT
ON EXPLOSIVE ERUPTIONS.

Andrews: FIREPLACE ASH
IS ESSENTIALLY JUST BURNED WOOD.

VOLCANIC ASH
IS PULVERIZED PUMICE AND ROCK,

SMALLER THAN TWO MILLIMETERS,

AND IF WE LOOK AT IT
WITH A MICROSCOPE,

WE SEE THAT'S IT'S ESSENTIALLY
LITTLE BITS OF BROKEN CRYSTALS,

LITTLE BITS OF BROKEN ROCK,
AND BITS OF BROKEN PUMICE,

AND IF WE LOOK AT THAT PUMICE,
WE SEE THAT IT'S GLASS.

Narrator: A PETROGRAPHIC OPTICAL
MICROSCOPE REVEALS SOME DETAILS,

BUT IT'S NOT
UNTIL YOU SEE VOLCANIC ASH

WITH A SCANNING
ELECTRON MICROSCOPE

THAT YOU LEARN
HOW DANGEROUS IT IS.

Andrews: SO, WE'RE LOOKING
AT A SAMPLE OF ASH

FROM THE 1980 ERUPTION
OF MT. ST. HELENS HERE,

AND AS WE LOOK AT THIS,

WE CAN SEE RIGHT NOW

THAT IT'S MUCH MORE
THAN JUST FINE-GRAINED DUST.

WE HAVE A PIECE OF GLASS

THAT THEN HAS SOME VERY SHARP
FEATURES TO IT.

WE SEE THAT IT HAS THESE POINTS
AND SHARP EDGES AROUND IT,

AND EACH ONE OF THESE PARTICLES,

IN THIS PARTICULAR
FIELD OF VIEW,

EACH ONE OF THE BIG PARTICLES

IS ABOUT HALF THE SIZE
OF A HUMAN HAIR.

IN THE CASE OF VOLCANIC ASH,

YOU'RE INHALING
BITS OF BROKEN GLASS,

WHICH EFFECTIVELY CAN LACERATE
YOUR ENTIRE RESPIRATORY SYSTEM.

Narrator: IF YOU'RE CLOSE
TO A SUPER-ERUPTION,

INHALING LARGE AMOUNTS
OF VOLCANIC ASH

CAN BURN THE LINING OF
YOUR LUNGS, CAUSING RAPID DEATH.

BUT FURTHER AWAY,

AIRBORNE ASH WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO BREATHE,

AND THAT CAN KILL YOU, TOO.

PROJECT MANAGERS AT THE FEDERAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY

TAKE THE THREAT

OF A YELLOWSTONE
SUPER-ERUPTION SERIOUSLY,

MAPPING OUT SIX DANGER ZONES.

FOLLOWING AN ERUPTION, ZONE 1,
CLOSEST TO YELLOWSTONE,

WOULD BE SUFFOCATED
BY UP TO SIX FEET OF ASH.

70,000 PEOPLE ARE AT RISK HERE.

THE ASH CLOUD
WOULD REACH NEARBY COMMUNITIES

IN A MATTER OF MINUTES,

LEAVING LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RESIDENTS TO ESCAPE.

Man: THIS IS AS FAR EAST
AS YOU CAN GO.

Narrator: TRAVEL 60 MILES
FURTHER TO ZONE 2,

AND ANOTHER 400,000 PEOPLE

ARE AT RISK
FROM OVER THREE FEET OF ASH.

THERE WOULD BE
SEVERE HEALTH PROBLEMS

ON A SCALE THAT WOULD OVERWHELM
LOCAL HOSPITALS AND CLINICS.

THE DEADLY ASH
WOULD SPREAD QUICKLY

AS IT RISES
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE.

IN ZONE 3, MORE THAN A MILLION
PEOPLE WOULD BE EXPOSED.

IN ZONE 4,
SALT LAKE CITY AND DENVER

WOULD BE CRUSHED
BY A FOOT AND A HALF OF ASH,

TWICE THE AMOUNT NEEDED
TO COLLAPSE A BUILDING.

NOTHING SHORT
OF A CONCRETE BUNKER

WOULD SUPPORT THE WEIGHT.

IN ZONE 5, CITIES AS FAR AWAY
AS KANSAS CITY AND ST. LOUIS

WOULD SEE
NEARLY A HALF-FOOT OF ASH.

EVEN THAT AMOUNT
CAN CAUSE ROOFS TO COLLAPSE.

BY THE TIME THE ASH COVERS
ZONE 6, IT WOULD BLANKET AN AREA

FROM SAN FRANCISCO TO NEW YORK,
FROM DALLAS TO DETROIT,

DUMPING ABOUT A HALF AN INCH,

STILL ENOUGH TO IRRITATE
LUNGS AND EYES.

IN TOTAL, AT LEAST 200 MILLION
PEOPLE WOULD BE AFFECTED

BY THE ASH FALLOUT
FROM THE YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO.

IF THE SUPER-ERUPTION
OCCURS WITHOUT ANY WARNING,

THE HUMAN TOLL
WOULD BE UNIMAGINABLE.

EVEN WITH WARNING, THE IMPACT
WOULD BE CATASTROPHIC,

WITH DEATHS IN THE MILLIONS.

AS FOR THOSE
WHO SURVIVE THE BLAST,

THEY WOULD FACE A WORLD
OF DESPERATION AND TURMOIL,

CAUSED BY GRITTY,
ABRASIVE FRAGMENTS

RAINING DOWN ON THEM
FROM THE SKY.

THE ASHFALL RESULTING
FROM A SUPERVOLCANIC ERUPTION

AT YELLOWSTONE
WOULD ENDANGER THE FOOD CHAIN.

CROPS IN THE HEARTLAND
OF AMERICA

WOULD BE SEVERELY DAMAGED,
IF NOT DESTROYED.

Rampino: WELL, THE PROBLEM IS

THAT THE BREAD BASKET
OF NORTH AMERICA

IS DOWNWIND
FROM THE YELLOWSTONE VOLCANO,

AND THE ASH THAT WOULD
COVER THE GROUND SURFACE

WOULD DESTROY
THE GROWING SEASON

IN THE U.S. AND CANADA,

AND THE WORLD SUPPLY OF GRAIN
WOULD BE IN TROUBLE.

Narrator:
EVEN IF FOOD WERE AVAILABLE,

DISTRIBUTING IT
THROUGHOUT NORTH AMERICA

WOULD BE NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

AIRCRAFT WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO FLY

BECAUSE OF ASH
IN THE STRATOSPHERE.

IT'S WHY PLANES
WERE GROUNDED FOR DAYS

AFTER THE 2010
ICELANDIC ERUPTION.

FLYING THROUGH VOLCANIC ASH

IS LIKE FLYING
THROUGH CLOUDS OF SAND.

THE SMALL, GRITTY PARTICLES CAN
DAMAGE JET AIRCRAFT BLADES,

AFFECTING
THE ENGINE'S PERFORMANCE.

THIS SIMULATION SHOWS WHAT ASH
CAN DO WITHIN A JET TURBINE

WHEN IT STRIKES AN ENGINE BLADE
MADE OF TITANIUM.

Man: CLOSE THE UNIT UP.

Narrator: IN JUST FIVE MINUTES,

THE ASH BLASTS A HOLE
THROUGH THE BLADE,

WHICH COULD LEAD TO CATASTROPHIC
ENGINE FAILURE IN MIDFLIGHT.

WHILE NOT AS DRAMATIC,

ASH CAN ALSO DISABLE
GROUND-BASED VEHICLES.

Rampino: AUTOMOBILES,
THEIR ENGINES WOULD GET CLOGGED

WITH THE VOLCANIC ASH,
SO THERE'D BE NO TRUCKS.

IN THE MIDDLE OF NORTH AMERICA,

THERE'D BE NO WAY TO GET FOOD
IN OR OUT OF THAT ZONE.

Narrator: THE VOLUME OF ASH

WOULD POSE THE MOST SERIOUS
THREAT TO HUMAN HEALTH.

CANADIAN RAHUL SINGH
HAS RESPONDED

TO NATURAL DISASTERS
AROUND THE WORLD.

AS A PARAMEDIC AND DIRECTOR
OF THE CHARITY GLOBAL MEDIC,

HE'S SEEN THE EFFECT
VOLCANIC ASH CAN HAVE FIRSTHAND.

Rahul Singh: YOU KNOW
THAT PEOPLE ARE GOING TO NEED

FOOD, WATER, SHELTER,
ACCESS TO PRIMARY HEALTHCARE.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
WITH A VOLCANO?

THE ASH.
THE ASH IS THE KILLER.

Narrator: THERE'S EVIDENCE
OF ASH'S DEADLY EFFECTS

FROM 12 MILLION YEARS AGO
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

HERE, AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF NEBRASKA'S

ASHFALL FOSSIL BEDS SITE

ARE THE SKELETONS
OF OVER 200 PREHISTORIC ANIMALS

THAT DIED
FROM EXPOSURE TO VOLCANIC ASH.

THE ASH CAME FROM A VOLCANO

THAT ERUPTED OVER 1,000 MILES
AWAY IN WHAT IS NOW IDAHO.

RESEARCHERS AT THE SITE

SCRAPE AWAY LAYERS
OF SOIL AND SEDIMENT,

REVEALING A SCENE REMINISCENT
OF THE HUMAN TRAGEDY AT POMPEII.

THESE ANIMALS SURVIVED
THE INITIAL ASHFALL,

BUT OVER TIME, AS THEY GRAZED
ON ASH-COVERED GRASSES,

THEY BREATHED IN
THE POWDERY GLASS DUST,

WHICH SHREDDED THEIR LUNGS,

AND HERE, AT WHAT
WAS AN ANCIENT WATERHOLE,

THEY SUFFOCATED TO DEATH.

IF YOU DON'T DIE FROM
INHALING ASH AFTER AN ERUPTION,

YOUR NEXT CONCERN
WOULD BE CLEAN DRINKING WATER.

FALLING ASH WOULD CONTAMINATE
RIVERS AND LAKES.

WATER LIKE THIS
WOULD HAVE TO BE FILTERED,

AND RAHUL SINGH KNOWS ABOUT
THE CONSEQUENCES IF IT ISN'T.

Singh: OUR TEAMS ARE
SPECIALTY IN PROVIDING PEOPLE

WITH ACCESS
TO CLEAN DRINKING WATER

AND ACCESS
TO PRIMARY HEALTHCARE.

THE ASH IS GOING TO GIVE US
TONS OF PATIENTS,

BUT IN TWO OR THREE DAYS,
THAT ASH IS ALSO GOING TO WRECK

THE WATER SOURCE
OF ALL THOSE PEOPLE,

SO THAT SAME PATIENT
YOU MAY HAVE TREATED

ON THE FIRST DAY OF AN EVENT,

BECAUSE THE ASH
IS WHAT HE INHALED

AND IT MADE HIM
SHORT OF BREATH

AND IT'S CAUSED
ALL KINDS OF PROBLEMS,

IN TWO OR THREE DAYS,

IF YOU DON'T GET
CLEAN WATER UP AND RUNNING,

THEY'RE GOING TO BE
A PATIENT AGAIN.

Narrator: THE EFFECTS OF
A YELLOWSTONE SUPER-ERUPTION

WOULDN'T BE CONFINED
TO NORTH AMERICA.

THEY WOULD BE GLOBAL,

TRIGGERING CATASTROPHIC
CLIMATE CHANGE.

IT'S HAPPENED BEFORE.

SCIENTISTS USE A NUMERIC SCALE

TO MEASURE THE MAGNITUDE
OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION.

Sally Sennert: SO THE VOLCANIC
EXPLOSIVITY INDEX, OR VEI,

IS A WAY FOR SCIENTISTS

TO MEASURE
HOW BIG AN ERUPTION IS.

IT'S SIMILAR TO
THE RICHTER SCALE OF MAGNITUDE

FOR EARTHQUAKES

IN THE FACT THAT
IT'S A LOGARITHMIC SCALE,

SO A VEI 6 IS GOING TO BE
10 TIMES BIGGER THAN A VEI 5,

AND 100 TIMES BIGGER
THAN A VEI 4,

SO THE PURPOSE OF THE VEI SCALE

IS TO GET SCIENTISTS ON
THE SAME PAGE ABOUT AN ERUPTION,

YOU KNOW, SO WHEN YOU SAY VEI 5,

THAT HAS SOME MEANING ABOUT
HOW MUCH VOLUME WAS ERUPTED,

HOW HIGH AN ASH PLUME WENT.

MAY 18, 1980 ERUPTION
OF MT. ST. HELENS, FOR INSTANCE,

WAS BARELY A VEI 5,
WHICH IS CONSIDERED VERY LARGE.

MT. PINATUBO AND KRAKATAU
WERE BOTH VEI 6.

A SUPER-ERUPTION
WOULD BE A VEI 8,

OR 1,000 TIMES GREATER THAN
THE MT. ST. HELENS ERUPTION.

Narrator:
WHILE THE LARGEST ERUPTION

IN THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES,

MT. ST. HELENS IS NOT
THE BIGGEST IN HUMAN HISTORY.

Rampino: THE BIGGEST VOLCANIC
ERUPTION IN HISTORIC TIMES

IS THE TAMBORA EVENT
OF 1815 IN INDONESIA,

AND THAT WAS FOLLOWED
BY GLOBAL CLIMATIC COOLING

AND FAILURE OF THE CROPS
IN NORTH AMERICA AND IN EUROPE.

THERE WAS A FAMINE
IN WESTERN EUROPE.

1816 HAS BEEN CALLED
THE YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER.

NOW, YELLOWSTONE IS HUNDREDS
OF TIMES BIGGER THAN TAMBORA,

AND THE EFFECT WOULD BE GLOBAL.

THERE WOULD JUST BE WET AND COLD
WEATHER ALL OVER THE WORLD.

WE COINED THE TERM
"VOLCANIC WINTER"

TO COVER WHAT WOULD HAPPEN

AFTER A MAJOR SUPERVOLCANO
LIKE YELLOWSTONE.

Narrator: PROFESSOR RAMPINO HAS
STUDIED SLICES OF VOLCANIC ROCK

TO LEARN HOW PREVIOUS VOLCANOES
HAVE CHANGED THE EARTH.

HE PAINTS A GRIM VIEW OF LIFE
AFTER A SUPER-ERUPTION.

Rampino: TEMPERATURES
WOULD DROP, ON AVERAGE,

AROUND THE WORLD
ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS,

AND IN PARTS OF THE WORLD,
INCLUDING AFRICA, FOR EXAMPLE,

IN THE EQUATORIAL REGIONS,

THE TEMPERATURE EFFECT
WOULD BE EVEN GREATER,

20 DEGREES CELSIUS IN CHANGE.

TROPICAL VEGETATION
COULD NOT COPE

WITH THESE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

ALL ABOVEGROUND VEGETATION
COULD BE KILLED OFF.

THERE'D BE A 50 PERCENT DIE-OFF
OF TEMPERATE FORESTS.

THERE MIGHT BE
A 100 PERCENT DIE-OFF

IN TROPICAL RAIN FORESTS.

THIS WOULD TRULY BE
A CATASTROPHIC EVENT

ON A GLOBAL SCALE.

Narrator: THE LUNGS OF THE WORLD
WOULD BE IN JEOPARDY,

BUT NOT JUST FROM ASH.

A SUPERVOLCANIC ERUPTION
IN YELLOWSTONE

WOULD RELEASE SULFUR DIOXIDE
UP INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

IN COMBINATION WITH WATER VAPOR,
IT WOULD FORM AEROSOLS

THAT COULD BLOCK THE SUN
FROM REACHING EARTH.

Rampino: THE INDICATIONS ARE

THAT THE ASH AND THE AEROSOLS
THAT ARE FORMED

WOULD STAY
IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE

FOR FIVE OR SIX YEARS,

SO IMAGINE
THE RICE PRODUCTION IN ASIA.

FIVE OR SIX YEARS
OF LITTLE OR NO GROWING SEASON

WOULD CLEARLY
CAUSE A WORLDWIDE FAMINE.

Narrator: AND IN THE WAKE
OF WORLDWIDE FAMINE

WOULD COME A BARREN
AND DESOLATE WORLD.

YELLOWSTONE'S SUPERVOLCANO
IS HOME

TO THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION

OF HOT SPRINGS,
GEYSERS, AND BUBBLING MUD POTS

IN THE WORLD.

IT DOESN'T HAVE THE CONE SHAPE
OF OTHER VOLCANOES,

BUT BELOW THE SURFACE,

THERE'S AN EXTINCTION-LEVEL
EVENT WAITING TO HAPPEN.

IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME.

A SUPER-ERUPTION EXPLODING
FROM THIS RESTLESS CALDERA

WOULD DEVASTATE
THE IMMEDIATE AREA.

THE PYROCLASTIC FLOW
COULD SPREAD FROM THE SITE

IN ALL DIRECTIONS,

SMOTHERING PEOPLE, ANIMALS,
AND VEGETATION

IN UP TO SIX FEET
OF ASH AND DEBRIS.

SEISMIC ACTIVITY DOESN'T
NECESSARILY FORESHADOW

A MAJOR VOLCANIC ERUPTION,

BUT GEOLOGISTS SOMETIMES SEE
A LINK BETWEEN THE TWO.

Dengler:
THERE'S NO WAY A SUPERVOLCANO,

OR REALLY ANY VOLCANO,
FOR THAT MATTER,

CAN ERUPT
WITHOUT CAUSING EARTHQUAKES.

CONVERSELY, WHEN YOU HAVE
VERY LARGE EARTHQUAKES,

YOU TEND TO AFFECT
THE PLUMBING SYSTEMS

OF VOLCANOES THAT ARE NEARBY.

Narrator: MARTIN STRYKER
OF BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA,

KNOWS ALL TOO WELL THE
SEISMIC DANGERS OF YELLOWSTONE.

News Announcer:
ONE OF AMERICA'S WORST SERIES

OF EARTHQUAKES IN THIS CENTURY,
FELT THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWEST.

Narrator: IN 1959,
MARTIN WAS 15 YEARS OLD,

ON A FAMILY CAMPING TRIP
NEAR YELLOWSTONE.

LATE ONE EVENING,
HE WAS STARTLED AWAKE.

HIS TWO YOUNGER BROTHERS

WERE READING COMIC BOOKS
BY FLASHLIGHT.

Martin Stryker: AND I SAID,
YOU KNOW, "WHAT'S GOING ON?

IS THIS A THUNDERSTORM?"

AND THEY SAID,
"YEAH, WE THINK SO."

AND THEY JUST WENT BACK
TO WHAT THEY WERE DOING,

BUT, TO ME,
IT DIDN'T FEEL RIGHT,

SO I GOT UP,
AND I WENT OUTSIDE THE TENT,

AND I LOOKED
RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME,

AND TEN FEET AWAY WAS OUR CAR,

AND ON TOP OF THE CAR
WERE TWO PINE TREES

THAT HAD SNAPPED OFF
AND WERE BROKEN.

Narrator:
MARTIN'S DAD AND HIS STEPMOM

WERE SLEEPING IN A TENT NEARBY.

Stryker: I SAW THAT A BOULDER

WAS SITTING
RIGHT ON TOP OF THEIR TENT,

AND THE TENT WAS
TOTALLY COVERED BY THIS BOULDER.

I REALIZED THEN
THAT THEY'D BEEN KILLED.

News Announcer:
IN MADISON RIVER CANYON,

50 MILLION TONS
OF EARTH AND ROCK,

THE TOP
OF AN 8,000-FOOT MOUNTAIN

THUNDERED
ACROSS A FOREST CAMPGROUND

IN ONE
OF THE BIGGEST LANDSLIDES.

Narrator:
THE LANDSLIDE WAS THE RESULT

OF A MAGNITUDE 7.5 QUAKE
THAT KILLED 28 PEOPLE.

Stryker: IT SHOWS THE POWER
OF THE INITIAL QUAKE

BECAUSE THIS ROCK HAD BEEN
JARRED LOOSE ON THE HILLSIDE,

HAD JUMPED--
RUN DOWN THE HILL,

JUMPED OVER THE PICNIC TABLE,
AND LANDED ON TOP OF THEIR TENT

IN, LIKE, NOTHING FLAT.

MY INSTINCT
WAS TO PROTECT MY BROTHERS.

THEN WHEN I TOOK THEM OUTSIDE

AND TOLD THEM THAT
DAD AND ETHYL HAD BEEN KILLED,

I MEAN, THAT WAS
A HECK OF A SHOCK.

THE NEXT DAY, A SHERIFF AND
A RANGER AND A FARMER CAME BY,

AND THEY GOT A WINCH,
AND THEY PULLED THE ROCKS BACK,

AND THAT WAS FAIRLY
TRAUMATIC TO ME, YOU KNOW.

Narrator: THE HEBGEN LAKE
EARTHQUAKE IS A DEADLY REMINDER

OF THE GEOLOGIC FORCES AT WORK
IN YELLOWSTONE.

DEEP BENEATH THE SURFACE,

MAGMA WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE TOP.

IT WILL PUSH AND SHOVE THE ROCK
AROUND, PRODUCING EARTHQUAKES.

IT'S NORMAL FOR YELLOWSTONE

TO HAVE
3,000 EARTHQUAKES A YEAR,

BUT 2008
SAW AN ALARMING INCREASE.

IN JUST TWO WEEKS, THOUSANDS
OF QUAKES, AN EARTHQUAKE SWARM,

ROCKED THE AREA AND PUT
GEOPHYSICIST BOB SMITH ON ALERT.

Bob Smith: THE FRONT
OF THE EARTHQUAKE SWARM

WAS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH

AT ABOUT A KILOMETER A DAY,
WHICH IS A VERY HIGH RATE.

Lowenstern: THE EARTHQUAKES
WERE UNDERNEATH A LAKE,

AND SO THAT ALWAYS
KIND OF RAISES A RED FLAG

WITH THE PUBLIC IS BECAUSE IT'S
A LITTLE BIT MORE MYSTERIOUS

WHEN SOMETHING'S HAPPENING
BENEATH A BODY OF WATER.

IN ADDITION, WE COULD
SEE THAT THE EARTHQUAKES

DID MIGRATE OVER TIME,

AND SO THAT IMPLIES
THAT MAYBE SOMETHING'S MOVING,

MAYBE SOME FLUID,
MAYBE EVEN SOME MAGMA.

Smith:
WHATEVER IT DID, IT STOPPED.

I WAS CONCERNED THAT IT WAS
A FAILED EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE,

AND WE'RE BUILDING UP
THIS LONG FRACTURE ZONE,

GET ENOUGH STRESS,

WE CAN HAVE A MUCH LARGER
EARTHQUAKE NUCLEATING.

Narrator: THEN, IN 2010,
ANOTHER ALARM GOES OFF.

Man: EARTHQUAKES
HAVE BEEN ROCKING

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
ALL DAY.

RESEARCHERS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

SAY THE PARK'S IN THE MIDDLE
OF A SWARM OF QUAKES

THAT STARTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

SINCE YESTERDAY,
SEISMOLOGISTS SAY

THEY'VE RECORDED
MORE THAN 200 QUAKES.

Narrator:
THIS TIME, THE EARTHQUAKE SWARM

LASTED A MONTH
BEFORE IT STOPPED.

Smith: YOU KNOW, GEOLOGICALLY,
EVERYONE GETS EXCITED

ABOUT THINGS THAT START RAPIDLY,

BUT WE NEVER TALK ABOUT
THINGS THAT STOP RAPIDLY,

AND IT'S THE STOPPING PHASE
THAT WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND.

Narrator: RECENTLY, SCIENTISTS
HAVE COLLECTED NEW DATA,

GIVING THEM A BETTER PICTURE

OF YELLOWSTONE'S
UNDERGROUND PLUMBING.

RIGHT BENEATH THE CALDERA,
FROM THE LAST ERUPTION,

SITS THE MAGMA CHAMBER.

AND IT'S FED BY A PLUME OF MAGMA

STRETCHING DOWN 465 MILES
NORTHWEST INTO MONTANA.

IT'S MOSTLY SOLID ROCK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LIQUEFY,

AND SCIENTISTS ARE CLOSELY
MONITORING IT.

MAGMA, OR MOLTEN ROCK,
IS RISING THROUGH THE PLUME

INTO THE MAGMA CHAMBER
AT TWO INCHES A YEAR.

Smith: THERE'S NO REASON
FOR IT TO STOP.

ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT
COME IN SPURTS,

OUR IMAGES SHOW
WIDER PARTS AND NARROWER PARTS,

SO IT'S LIKE SLUGS OF MATERIAL

THAT ARE FLOWING
IN A SEWER LINE,

AND THIS RESTLESS
YELLOWSTONE CALDERA

IS TRULY LIVING, BREATHING,

AND EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE,
IT BURPS.

Narrator: THE DANGER IS
IF THE PLUME STARTS LIQUEFYING

AND MOVING UP
AT A FASTER RATE.

Lowenstern: NATURAL SYSTEMS CAN
THROW US A LOT OF CURVEBALLS.

A LOT OF THINGS CAN HAPPEN
THAT WE'RE NOT REALLY READY FOR.

Narrator:
SCIENTIST JAKE LOWENSTERN

IS LOOKING FOR A PATTERN

CONNECTING
THE SUPERVOLCANO TODAY

AND ITS THREE PRIOR
MAJOR ERUPTIONS--

2.1 MILLION YEARS AGO,

1.3 MILLION YEARS AGO,

AND 640,000 YEARS AGO.

Lowenstern: IN TWO OF THE REALLY
LARGE ERUPTIONS AT YELLOWSTONE,

SO MUCH MATERIAL COMES OUT,

ENTIRE MOUNTAIN RANGES END UP
FALLING INTO THE GROUND

AND, ESSENTIALLY, DISAPPEARING.

Narrator:
ONE 50-MILE STRETCH OF MOUNTAINS

SIMPLY DISAPPEARED BY COLLAPSING
INTO THE MAGMA CHAMBER.

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO GEOLOGIST
JOHN WESTGATE

HAS TRACKED THE ASH FROM
YELLOWSTONE'S PRIOR ERUPTIONS.

John Westgate: IT COVERED
MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES.

IT OCCURS
RIGHT OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

IT'S EVEN FOUND
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

UP IN NORTHEAST MONTANA, THERE'S
A SITE THAT WE'RE WORKING ON.

THE TEPHRA'S
OVER 7 METERS THICK.

THESE ERUPTIONS ARE ENORMOUS.

THE AMOUNT OF MATERIAL
ERUPTED FROM THEM, HUGE.

Narrator: WHEN MT. ST. HELENS
ERUPTED IN MAY 1980,

IT BLEW OFF
ONE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN

AND TRIGGERED AN AVALANCHE
OF SNOW, MUD, ASH, AND ROCK.

DRIVEN BY THE WIND,

THE ASH LANDED IN 11 STATES
AND UP INTO CANADA,

BUT THAT'S NOTHING
COMPARED TO THE AMOUNT OF ASH

FROM YELLOWSTONE'S
LAST THREE MAJOR ERUPTIONS.

IN MAGNITUDE AND VOLUME,

EACH ONE WAS FAR GREATER
THAN MT. ST. HELENS.

TODAY THERE'S LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
THE SUPERVOLCANO'S VIOLENT PAST.

THE 50-BY-30-MILE CALDERA
FROM THE LAST ERUPTION

WAS COVERED BY LAVA AND ASH
AND SMOOTHED OVER BY GLACIERS.

FORESTS NOW CONCEAL THE SCARS.

BUT THIS PASTORAL
IMAGE OF YELLOWSTONE

DOESN'T FOOL
GEOPHYSICIST BOB SMITH.

HE'S BEEN WATCHING THE VOLCANO
FOR HIS ENTIRE CAREER.

Smith: THIS THING'S BEEN ACTIVE
FOR 17 MILLION YEARS,

AND AS WE SEE IT TODAY,
IT'S VERY DYNAMIC.

WHEN YOU DRIVE TO YELLOWSTONE
FROM ANYWHERE,

YOU DRIVE UPHILL
ONTO THIS HIGH PLATEAU,

AND THE PLATEAU'S ESSENTIALLY
THE TOP OF THE HOT SPOT.

IT INCLUDES THE EARTHQUAKES,

IT INCLUDES THE CONCEPT
OF HEAT FLOW

THAT'S DRIVING THE GEYSERS
AND HOT SPRINGS,

BUT IT HAS ITS SOURCE DEEPER
IN THE EARTH'S UPPER MANTLE.

Narrator: IT'S THAT MYSTERIOUS
HEAT SOURCE DEEP IN THE EARTH

THAT'S FUELING YELLOWSTONE.

NORTH AMERICA
IS A TECTONIC PLATE

MOVING AT ABOUT AN INCH PER YEAR
IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

AS THE PLATE MOVES,
CRACKS AND FRACTURES

ALLOW MAGMA TO MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE EARTH'S SURFACE

AND SOMETIMES PUNCH THROUGH
AS AN ERUPTION.

THIS PLATE MOVEMENT HAS
LEFT BEHIND A TRAIL OF CALDERAS

FROM PAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS,
CALLED A HOT SPOT TRACK.

FROM YELLOWSTONE, IT STRETCHES

NEARLY 500 MILES
TO THE SOUTHWEST,

SIGNS OF A VIOLENT PAST.

Lowenstern: ALL WE SEE
IS WHAT HAPPENS AT THE SURFACE,

BUT WE DON'T KNOW
THE ACTUAL PLAYERS IN DETAIL

OF WHAT'S HAPPENING DOWN BELOW.

Narrator:
GEOLOGIST HANK HEASLER,

ARMED WITH AN INFRARED CAMERA,
MONITORS HEAT LEVELS

AT YELLOWSTONE'S
NORRIS GEYSER BASIN,

EVEN IN THE DEAD OF WINTER.

Heasler:
RIGHT HERE, MUCH OF NORRIS

IS AT BOILING TEMPERATURES,
SO A LOT OF HEAT,

A LOT OF THERMAL ENERGY
COMING FROM THE MOLTEN ROCK

THAT'S RIGHT HERE
BENEATH OUR FEET.

Narrator: 187 FEET UNDERGROUND,
THE TEMPERATURE

CAN REACH
OVER 460 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

Lowenstern: YELLOWSTONE IS
STILL A TREMENDOUS HEAT SOURCE,

AND IT'S REALLY A GLOBALLY
SIGNIFICANT VOLCANIC SYSTEM.

THERE IS NO PLACE ON EARTH
QUITE LIKE YELLOWSTONE.

Narrator: AND THERE'S NO PLACE
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE

AN EARTH-SHATTERING ERUPTION
THAN HERE.

Walter Cronkite:
GEOLOGISTS WHO GOT A CLOSER VIEW

OF THE VOLCANO,

FLYING RIGHT INTO THE CRATER,

CALLED THE SCENE
"SPOOKY" AND "SCARY."

OTHER SCIENTISTS
REPORTED NEW RUMBLINGS

FROM THE MOUNTAIN TODAY.

THEY AREN'T SURE
WHAT THAT PORTENDS.

Narrator: THE 1980
MT. ST. HELENS VOLCANIC ERUPTION

WAS THE DEADLIEST
IN U.S. HISTORY.

Man: WE HAD A MAJOR ERUPTION
OCCURRING AT 8:32...

Narrator: THE FIRST TO OCCUR
IN THE ERA OF LIVE TELEVISION.

Man: NORTHWEST FLANK OF
THE MOUNTAIN SEEMS TO BE GONE.

Narrator: NEVER BEFORE
HAD THE WORLD WITNESSED

A VOLCANO'S DESTRUCTIVE POWER
IN REAL TIME,

BUT WHILE A MEDIA EVENT,

IT WAS ALSO AN UNPRECEDENTED
OPPORTUNITY FOR SCIENTISTS.

THE 1980 ERUPTION WAS THE FIRST
TO BE THOROUGHLY MONITORED

WITH A VARIETY OF GEOPHYSICAL
INSTRUMENTS,

OBSERVING
AND MEASURING THE PROCESSES

THAT PRODUCED
SUCH AN EXPLOSIVE FURY.

Man: 845.

Narrator: SINCE THEN,
SCIENTISTS HAVE KEPT A CLOSE EYE

ON THE YELLOWSTONE CALDERA,
WATCHING FOR UNUSUAL ACTIVITY.

GEOPHYSICIST DAVID MENCIN
IS TRYING TO DECIPHER

STRANGE SIGNALS
COMING FROM YELLOWSTONE LAKE.

THESE SIGNALS ARE PICKED UP
BY INSTRUMENTS

BURIED UNDER THE LAKE,
FAR BENEATH THE EARTH'S CRUST.

MENCIN AND HIS TEAM COULDN'T
BELIEVE THE READINGS THEY GOT--

MYSTERIOUS MESSAGES
FROM THE DEEP.

David Mencin: WE THOUGHT THE
INSTRUMENT WAS MALFUNCTIONING

UNTIL WE NOTICED
THEY WERE SHOWING UP

ON ALL THE INSTRUMENTS
SIMULTANEOUSLY.

Narrator: THEY REALIZED
THE LAKE WAS MAKING WAVES,

UNDETECTABLE TO THE EYE, BUT
REGISTERING ON THE INSTRUMENTS.

WATER MOVING BACK AND FORTH,

LIKE WATER DISPLACED
IN A BATHTUB.

Mencin: THIS WATER,
THIS BIG WEIGHT OF WATER

GOING BACK AND FORTH
IS ESSENTIALLY PUSHING DOWN

ON THE CRUST
ON TOP OF THE CALDERA,

AND IT'S REACTING DIFFERENTLY
BECAUSE THE LAYER UNDERNEATH

IS MORE LIKE A FLUID
THAN IT IS A SOLID,

AND WE DON'T UNDERSTAND
WHAT'S FORCING THIS TO HAPPEN.

Narrator: AND IT'S NOT
JUST THE WATER MAKING WAVES.

THE GROUND ITSELF IS MOVING.

BEGINNING IN 2004,
SCIENTISTS DISCOVERED

A QUARTER OF THE YELLOWSTONE
CALDERA WAS RISING

NEARLY THREE INCHES A YEAR
RIGHT OVER THE MAGMA CHAMBER.

Lowenstern:
IT WAS ABOUT 25 CENTIMETERS

OVER THAT ENTIRE
FOUR-TO-SIX-YEAR PERIOD.

Narrator: THEN IN 2010,

THE EARTH SLOWLY
STARTED GOING BACK DOWN.

NO ONE'S QUITE SURE WHAT'S
CAUSING THIS RISE AND FALL.

Lowenstern: PEOPLE STILL ARGUE
ABOUT EXACTLY WHAT IT MEANS.

Narrator: THE MEANING
OF THESE GEOLOGIC CLUES

MAY BE UP FOR DEBATE,

BUT THERE'S LITTLE DOUBT
ABOUT THE ECONOMIC COSTS

OF A YELLOWSTONE
SUPER-ERUPTION.

ACCORDING TO FEMA, THE ESTIMATED
ECONOMIC LOSSES IN THE U.S.

COULD RUN TO UP TO $3 TRILLION.

THE EFFECTS ON THE WORLD ECONOMY
WOULD BE EQUALLY CATASTROPHIC

IF A GLOBAL VOLCANIC WINTER
RESULTED.

Westgate: SO ARE WE PREPARED
FOR THIS EVENT?

PROBABLY NOT.

Narrator: WHILE THERE'S NO WAY
TO PREVENT A SUPER-ERUPTION,

THERE MAY BE WAYS
TO MITIGATE ITS IMPACT,

IF THERE ARE
EARLY WARNING SIGNS.

Dengler: IT'S FEASIBLE TO KEEP
EVERYBODY OUT OF THE PARK.

NOT AN EASY THING TO DO,

BUT THAT'S SOMETHING
THEY CAN PLAN FOR.

Rampino:
THAT'S A BIG EVACUATION PLAN,

AND CERTAINLY
THINGS ARE GOING TO GO WRONG.

PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE KILLED
IN CAR ACCIDENTS, FOR EXAMPLE,

IN THE RUSH TO GET AWAY
FROM THE VOLCANO.

Narrator:
FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN ZONES

FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ERUPTION,

SURVIVAL WOULD DEPEND
ON PREPARING FOR THE WORST.

BUT HOW BAD WOULD THE WORST BE?

Dengler: AND I WOULD SAY
THAT THE EXAMPLE OF JAPAN

HAS A NUMBER OF
VERY IMPORTANT LESSONS FOR US.

THEY WERE NOT PREPARED FOR IT.

THE EARTHQUAKE WAS BIGGER.
THE TSUNAMI WAS BIGGER.

BASED ON THE HISTORIC
EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY,

THEY THOUGHT THEY REALLY
HAD A PRETTY GOOD UNDERSTANDING

OF HOW THINGS MOVED,

AND WHEN THEY GOT A 9,

THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY
OF SEISMOLOGISTS, ENGINEERS

WERE REALLY, REALLY SURPRISED.

WE REALLY DO HAVE TO CONSIDER

THAT THE EVENT
MAY EXCEED OUR PARAMETERS.

Narrator:
IN AMERICA, HURRICANE KATRINA

REVEALED HOW VULNERABLE
PEOPLE AND PROPERTY ARE

IN THE FACE
OF MASSIVE NATURAL DISASTERS.

BUT WHILE EVACUATION
FOR A HURRICANE

MAY MOVE PEOPLE
AWAY FROM IMPACT ZONES

FOR A PERIOD OF DAYS
OR A WEEK,

A SUPER-ERUPTION'S DESTRUCTIVE
POWER WOULD BE FAR GREATER

AND LAST FAR LONGER.

FOR INDIVIDUALS
TO SURVIVE A SUPER-ERUPTION,

IT MAY TAKE A NEW MIND-SET.

Dengler: DEVELOPING
A CULTURE OF PREPAREDNESS.

IT'S NOT PARANOIA.

IT'S NOT CONSTANTLY THINKING

THAT SOMETHING'S
GOING TO HAPPEN,

BUT SIMPLE THINGS
LIKE HAVING THE ABILITY

TO LAST ON YOUR OWN
FOR A WEEK,

HAVING FOOD AND SUPPLIES,
HAVING A KIT IN YOUR CAR.

Narrator: FOR A COMMUNITY
TO SURVIVE A SUPER-ERUPTION,

IT REQUIRES PLANNING
AND PREPAREDNESS ON A VAST SCALE

AND BEGINS
WITH STOCKPILING THE ESSENTIALS,

STARTING WITH WATER.

Singh: JUST WHAT WE KEEP
IN STOCK IS ENOUGH TO PURIFY

ABOUT 150 MILLION LITERS
OF CLEAN DRINKING WATER.

YOU DON'T GET FOLKS
CLEAN WATER, PEOPLE DIE,

AND IT'S AS SIMPLE AS THAT.

Narrator: THE CANADIAN CHARITY
GLOBAL MEDIC

HAS RESPONDED
TO 60 NATURAL DISASTERS

IN 35 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
AROUND THE WORLD.

Singh:
AND ONE THING I CAN TELL YOU

AS A UNIFORM RULE
IS NO ONE'S PREPARED ENOUGH.

YOU AND YOUR FAMILY SHOULD BE
STOCKPILED FOR ABOUT THREE DAYS

BECAUSE THAT'S PROBABLY
WHAT IT'S GOING TO TAKE

THE REST OF OUR SOCIETY

TO COME AND PROVIDE YOU
WITH SUPPLEMENTAL AID.

Narrator: THERE'S THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT FOOD SECURITY

WILL BECOME A CONCERN
ONCE INITIAL SUPPLIES RUN OUT.

Singh: FOOD'S TOUGH
TO DISTRIBUTE AT ANY TIME.

I THINK BACK TO HAITI,

WHERE WE HAD TO USE U.N. TROOPS
TO ROLL DOWN THE STREETS

JUST TO PROTECT
OUR CONVOYS OF FOOD,

JUST SO WE COULD GET THEM

INTO COMMUNITY CENTERS
OF MAKESHIFT CITIES.

Narrator:
SOME SCIENTISTS ADVOCATE

GOVERNMENTS TAKING MEASURES NOW

TO GUARD
AGAINST EVENTUAL SHORTAGES.

Rampino: ONE OF THE THINGS
YOU MIGHT WANT TO DO

IF YOU'RE WAITING
FOR A SUPERVOLCANIC ERUPTION

IS TO BE ABLE
TO STORE ENOUGH FOOD

TO GET YOU
THROUGH THE FIVE OR SIX YEARS

WHEN THERE'S GOING TO BE
NO GROWING SEASON,

BUT WHEN THE YIELDS ARE HIGH,

WE ONLY HAVE ABOUT TWO MONTH'S
WORTH OF GRAIN IN STORAGE

IN THE UNITED STATES,

SO WE REALLY
HAVE TO MAKE A MAJOR EFFORT

TO STOCKPILE ENOUGH FOODS
AND OTHER MATERIALS.

Narrator: THE CHALLENGE
MAY SEEM INSURMOUNTABLE,

THE CONSEQUENCES INEVITABLE,

BUT WITH A DISASTER SO GREAT
LOOMING IN THE FUTURE,

THE QUESTION BECOMES
WHEN WILL IT HAPPEN?

AS SCIENTISTS LEARN MORE
ABOUT HOW VOLCANOES BEHAVE,

THEY SEARCH FOR CLUES
THAT MAY HELP PINPOINT

THE NEXT YELLOWSTONE
SUPER-ERUPTION,

BUT FORECASTING WHEN IT WILL
HAPPEN IS TRICKY BUSINESS.

Sennert: SOME VOLCANOES ERUPT
WITH MORE REGULARITY,

AND ARE A LITTLE BIT EASIER
TO PREDICT,

AND SOME AREN'T,

AND YELLOWSTONE, YOU KNOW,
IT'S A DYNAMIC SYSTEM,

AND SO A DYNAMIC SYSTEM LIKE
THAT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

Westgate:
WE KNOW A MAJOR ERUPTION

WILL OCCUR IN THE FUTURE,

BUT EXACTLY WHEN, WE DON'T KNOW.

Lowenstern:
I DO KNOW THAT THERE WILL BE

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
AGAIN AT YELLOWSTONE.

I DON'T THINK
THEY'RE VERY LIKELY TO HAPPEN

WITHIN MY LIFETIME.

Narrator: THE SCIENTISTS AGREE
IT'S HARD TO PREDICT THE TIMING

OF YELLOWSTONE'S NEXT
MAJOR ERUPTION.

Rampino: SO WILL THAT BE
IN OUR LIFETIME,

OUR CHILDREN'S LIFETIME,
OUR GRANDCHILDREN'S?

WE CAN'T SAY FOR SURE

BECAUSE WE'VE NEVER EXPERIENCED
IN HISTORIC TIMES

AN ERUPTION THAT BIG.

Narrator:
WHEN THE ERUPTION COMES,

SCIENTISTS AGREE
THERE WILL BE WARNING SIGNS,

WEEKS, IF NOT MONTHS,
IN ADVANCE.

Dengler: WE'RE GOING TO SEE

AT LEAST SIX WEEKS
OF RE-AWAKENING--

INCREASED EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY,

INCREASED
SMALL-SCALE STEAM ERUPTIONS,

GROUND SWELLING,
GAS EMISSIONS

BECAUSE
THAT'S CERTAINLY WHAT WE SAW

IN THE CASE
OF ST. HELENS AND PINATUBO.

Narrator:
BUT HAS THE RE-AWAKENING BEGUN?

Lowenstern: THE DIFFICULT THING
IS ALWAYS GOING TO BE

UNDERSTANDING HOW BIG IS THIS
GOING TO BE, HOW BIG CAN IT GET?

AND THAT'S NOT SOMETHING

THAT WE REALLY HAVE
THAT MUCH EXPERIENCE WITH

BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T HAD
ANY ERUPTIONS IN HISTORIC TIME

THAT ARE OF THAT KIND OF SCALE.

Narrator: THERE'S GOOD REASON
WHY SCIENTISTS AND OFFICIALS

ARE HESITANT TO SOUND THE ALARM.

Westgate:
WHEN YOU START TO MAKE COMMENTS

ABOUT POTENTIAL ERUPTIONS OR,
INDEED, POTENTIAL EARTHQUAKES,

LOCAL ADMINISTRATIVE BODIES
GET VERY, VERY UPSET.

REAL ESTATE VALUES DROP.
TOURISM DECREASES.

I MEAN,
YOU HAVE REAL ISSUES THERE.

Smith: I DON'T MAKE
THE DECISIONS TO EVACUATE.

I JUST TELL THE MANAGERS,

"HERE ARE THE POSSIBILITIES,
AND HERE'S THE LIKELIHOOD.

IT'S UP TO YOU."

Narrator:
BUT WHAT HAPPENS WHEN SCIENTISTS

FAIL TO WARN THE PUBLIC?

IN 2009, IN L'AQUILA, ITALY,
A SERIES OF EARTHQUAKE SWARMS

WERE RECORDED IN THE MONTHS

BEFORE A 6.3 EARTHQUAKE
SHOOK THE CITY.

NO EVACUATION WAS ORDERED.

MORE THAN 300 PEOPLE
WERE KILLED.

SIX SEISMOLOGISTS
AND A GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL

WERE CHARGED
WITH MANSLAUGHTER

FOR FAILING TO WARN PEOPLE
ABOUT THE COMING EARTHQUAKE.

Rampino:
WE DON'T KNOW ENOUGH

ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS
OF AN IMPENDING ERUPTION

TO BE ABLE TO SAY, "OKAY,
NOW IS THE TIME TO EVACUATE."

IF YOU MAKE A MISTAKE
AND THE VOLCANO DOESN'T GO OFF,

THEN YOU'VE MOVED
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE

FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER,

SO, POLITICALLY,
IT MIGHT BE A PROBLEM

OF WHO IS
GOING TO MAKE THE CALL?

THE GOVERNOR, THE PRESIDENT,
THE LOCAL MAYORS?

WHO'S GOING TO MAKE THE CALL
TO BEGIN TO EVACUATE?

Narrator:
IT'S A TOUGH CALL TO MAKE

BECAUSE,
EVEN IF YOU KNOW THE DATE,

HOW DO YOU EVACUATE
MOST OF THE UNITED STATES

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI?

Smith: I ALWAYS WORRY ABOUT HOW
MUCH ERROR WE HAVE IN OUR DATA.

WHAT'S THE VARIABILITY
IN AN ANSWER?

I COULD ANSWER YOU,
I COULD SAY,

"50 PERCENT CHANCE
IN 10 DAYS,"

BUT WHAT IF I'M OFF
BY 1,000 PERCENT?

Andrews:
IN MY VIEW, THERE WILL BE

ANOTHER SUPER-ERUPTION
FROM YELLOWSTONE,

BUT IT'S ALMOST CERTAINLY
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN

FOR MANY THOUSANDS OF YEARS.

Rampino: PEOPLE WANT TO
PUT THEIR HEADS IN THE SAND.

THEY DON'T WANT TO THINK

ABOUT THESE SUPER-ERUPTIONS
HAPPENING AGAIN,

AND WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT
THAT VOLCANO IS GOING TO GO OFF.

Narrator: TODAY,
YELLOWSTONE'S OLD FAITHFUL

ERUPTS PREDICTABLY
EVERY 90 MINUTES OR SO.

BUT AS FOR EXACTLY
WHEN YELLOWSTONE WILL UNLEASH

ITS INEVITABLE
CATASTROPHIC FURY,

WHETHER TOMORROW OR
MANY THOUSAND OF YEARS FROM NOW,

THE ANSWER LIES BURIED
DEEP WITHIN THE EARTH.