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the following is a conversation with

the following is a conversation with

the following is a conversation with John mimer a professor at University of

John mimer a professor at University of

John mimer a professor at University of Chicago and one of the most influential

Chicago and one of the most influential

Chicago and one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world

and controversial thinkers in the world

and controversial thinkers in the world he teaches speaks and writes about the

he teaches speaks and writes about the

he teaches speaks and writes about the nature of power and War on the global

nature of power and War on the global

nature of power and War on the global stage in history and

stage in history and

stage in history and today please allow me to say once again

today please allow me to say once again

today please allow me to say once again my hope for this little journey am

my hope for this little journey am

my hope for this little journey am on I will speak to everyone on all sides

on I will speak to everyone on all sides

on I will speak to everyone on all sides with compassion with empathy and with

with compassion with empathy and with

with compassion with empathy and with backbone I will speak with Vladimir

backbone I will speak with Vladimir

backbone I will speak with Vladimir Putin and with vadimus zy with Russians

Putin and with vadimus zy with Russians

Putin and with vadimus zy with Russians and with ukrainians with Israelis and

and with ukrainians with Israelis and

and with ukrainians with Israelis and with Palestinians with

with Palestinians with

with Palestinians with everyone my goal is to do whatever small

everyone my goal is to do whatever small

everyone my goal is to do whatever small part I can to decrease the amount of

part I can to decrease the amount of

part I can to decrease the amount of suffering in the world by trying to

suffering in the world by trying to

suffering in the world by trying to reveal our common

reveal our common

reveal our common Humanity I believe that in the end Truth

Humanity I believe that in the end Truth

Humanity I believe that in the end Truth and Love

wins I will get attacked for being naive

wins I will get attacked for being naive

wins I will get attacked for being naive for being a shill for being

for being a shill for being

for being a shill for being weak I am none of those things but I do

weak I am none of those things but I do

weak I am none of those things but I do make mistakes and I will get

make mistakes and I will get

make mistakes and I will get better I love you

better I love you

better I love you all this is Alex Freedman podcast to

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in the description and now dear friends

in the description and now dear friends here's John

here's John

here's John mammer can you explain explain your view

mammer can you explain explain your view

mammer can you explain explain your view on power in international Politics as

on power in international Politics as

on power in international Politics as outlined in your book The Tragedy of

outlined in your book The Tragedy of

outlined in your book The Tragedy of great power politics and in your writing

great power politics and in your writing

great power politics and in your writing since then yeah I make two sets of

since then yeah I make two sets of

since then yeah I make two sets of points there first of all I believe that

points there first of all I believe that

points there first of all I believe that power is the currency of international

power is the currency of international

power is the currency of international relations and by that I mean that states

relations and by that I mean that states

relations and by that I mean that states are deeply interested in the balance of

are deeply interested in the balance of

are deeply interested in the balance of power and they're interested in

power and they're interested in

power and they're interested in maximizing how much power they control

maximizing how much power they control

maximizing how much power they control and the question is why States care so

and the question is why States care so

and the question is why States care so much about power I in the International

much about power I in the International

much about power I in the International System there's no higher authority so if

System there's no higher authority so if

System there's no higher authority so if you get into trouble and you dial 911

you get into trouble and you dial 911

you get into trouble and you dial 911 there's nobody at the other end in a

there's nobody at the other end in a

there's nobody at the other end in a system like that you have no choice but

system like that you have no choice but

system like that you have no choice but to figure out for yourself how best to

to figure out for yourself how best to

to figure out for yourself how best to protect yourself and the best way to

protect yourself and the best way to

protect yourself and the best way to protect yourself is to be powerful to

protect yourself is to be powerful to

protect yourself is to be powerful to have as much power as you can possibly

have as much power as you can possibly

have as much power as you can possibly gain over all the other states in the

gain over all the other states in the

gain over all the other states in the system therefore States care about power

system therefore States care about power

system therefore States care about power because it enhances or maximizes their

because it enhances or maximizes their

because it enhances or maximizes their prospects for survival second point I

prospects for survival second point I

prospects for survival second point I would make is that in the real story or

would make is that in the real story or

would make is that in the real story or in my story power is largely a function

in my story power is largely a function

in my story power is largely a function of material factors uh the two ke key

of material factors uh the two ke key

of material factors uh the two ke key building blocks of Power are population

building blocks of Power are population

building blocks of Power are population size and wealth you want to have a lot

size and wealth you want to have a lot

size and wealth you want to have a lot of people and you want to be really

of people and you want to be really

of people and you want to be really wealthy of course course this is why the

wealthy of course course this is why the

wealthy of course course this is why the United States is so powerful it has lots

United States is so powerful it has lots

United States is so powerful it has lots of people and it has lots of wealth

of people and it has lots of wealth

of people and it has lots of wealth China was not considered a great power

China was not considered a great power

China was not considered a great power until

until

until recently uh because it didn't have a lot

recently uh because it didn't have a lot

recently uh because it didn't have a lot of wealth certainly had population size

of wealth certainly had population size

of wealth certainly had population size but it didn't have wealth and without

but it didn't have wealth and without

but it didn't have wealth and without both a large population and much wealth

both a large population and much wealth

both a large population and much wealth you're usually not considered a great

you're usually not considered a great

you're usually not considered a great power uh so I think power matters uh but

power uh so I think power matters uh but

power uh so I think power matters uh but uh when we talk about power it's

uh when we talk about power it's

uh when we talk about power it's important to understand that it's a

important to understand that it's a

important to understand that it's a population size and wealth that are

population size and wealth that are

population size and wealth that are underpinning it so there's a lot of

underpinning it so there's a lot of

underpinning it so there's a lot of interesting things there first you said

interesting things there first you said

interesting things there first you said nations in relation to each other are is

nations in relation to each other are is

nations in relation to each other are is essentially in a state of anarchism yeah

essentially in a state of anarchism yeah

essentially in a state of anarchism yeah well Anarchy basically means the

well Anarchy basically means the

well Anarchy basically means the opposite of hierarchy sometimes people

opposite of hierarchy sometimes people

opposite of hierarchy sometimes people think when you're talking about Anarchy

think when you're talking about Anarchy

think when you're talking about Anarchy you're talking about murder and mayham

you're talking about murder and mayham

you're talking about murder and mayham but that's not what Anarchy means in the

but that's not what Anarchy means in the

but that's not what Anarchy means in the realist context Anarchy simply means

realist context Anarchy simply means

realist context Anarchy simply means that you don't have hierarchy there's no

that you don't have hierarchy there's no

that you don't have hierarchy there's no higher authority that sits above States

higher authority that sits above States

higher authority that sits above States states are like pool balls on a table

states are like pool balls on a table

states are like pool balls on a table right and in an anarchic world uh

right and in an anarchic world uh

right and in an anarchic world uh there's no higher authority that you can

there's no higher authority that you can

there's no higher authority that you can turn to uh if you get into trouble and

turn to uh if you get into trouble and

turn to uh if you get into trouble and of course the political philosopher who

of course the political philosopher who

of course the political philosopher who laid this all out was Thomas Hobbs and

laid this all out was Thomas Hobbs and

laid this all out was Thomas Hobbs and Hobbs talked about life in the state of

Hobbs talked about life in the state of

Hobbs talked about life in the state of nature and in the state of nature you

nature and in the state of nature you

nature and in the state of nature you have

have

have individuals and those individuals

individuals and those individuals

individuals and those individuals compete with each other for power and

compete with each other for power and

compete with each other for power and the reason that they do is because in

the reason that they do is because in

the reason that they do is because in the state of nature by definition you

the state of nature by definition you

the state of nature by definition you have no higher authority and hobbs' view

have no higher authority and hobbs' view

have no higher authority and hobbs' view is that the way to get out of this

is that the way to get out of this

is that the way to get out of this terrible situation where individuals are

terrible situation where individuals are

terrible situation where individuals are competing with each other and even

competing with each other and even

competing with each other and even killing each other is to create a state

killing each other is to create a state

killing each other is to create a state it's what he calls the Leviathan and

it's what he calls the Leviathan and

it's what he calls the Leviathan and that of course is the title of his

that of course is the title of his

that of course is the title of his famous book so the idea is to escape

famous book so the idea is to escape

famous book so the idea is to escape Anarchy you create a state and that

Anarchy you create a state and that

Anarchy you create a state and that means you go from Anarchy to hierarchy

means you go from Anarchy to hierarchy

means you go from Anarchy to hierarchy the problem in international politics is

the problem in international politics is

the problem in international politics is that there is no world State there is no

that there is no world State there is no

that there is no world State there is no hierarchy and if you have no hierarchy

hierarchy and if you have no hierarchy

hierarchy and if you have no hierarchy and you're in an anarchic system you

and you're in an anarchic system you

and you're in an anarchic system you have no choice but to try to maximize

have no choice but to try to maximize

have no choice but to try to maximize your relative power power to make sure

your relative power power to make sure

your relative power power to make sure you are as we used to say when I was a

you are as we used to say when I was a

you are as we used to say when I was a kid on New York City playgrounds the

kid on New York City playgrounds the

kid on New York City playgrounds the biggest and baddest dude on the Block

biggest and baddest dude on the Block

biggest and baddest dude on the Block not because you necessarily want to beat

not because you necessarily want to beat

not because you necessarily want to beat up on other kids or on other states but

up on other kids or on other states but

up on other kids or on other states but because again that's the best way to

because again that's the best way to

because again that's the best way to survive and as I like to point out to

survive and as I like to point out to

survive and as I like to point out to people the best example of what happens

people the best example of what happens

people the best example of what happens when you're weak in in National politics

when you're weak in in National politics

when you're weak in in National politics is what the Chinese call the century of

is what the Chinese call the century of

is what the Chinese call the century of national

national

national humiliation from the late 1840s to the

humiliation from the late 1840s to the

humiliation from the late 1840s to the late 1940s the Chinese were remarkably

late 1940s the Chinese were remarkably

late 1940s the Chinese were remarkably weak and the great powers in the system

weak and the great powers in the system

weak and the great powers in the system prayed upon them and uh that sends a

prayed upon them and uh that sends a

prayed upon them and uh that sends a very important message to not only the

very important message to not only the

very important message to not only the Chinese but to other states in the

Chinese but to other states in the

Chinese but to other states in the system don't be weak be as powerful as

system don't be weak be as powerful as

system don't be weak be as powerful as you can and we'll talk about it but

you can and we'll talk about it but

you can and we'll talk about it but humiliation can lead to resentment and

humiliation can lead to resentment and

humiliation can lead to resentment and resentment leads to uh something you've

resentment leads to uh something you've

resentment leads to uh something you've also studied which is Nazi Germany in

also studied which is Nazi Germany in

also studied which is Nazi Germany in the

the

the 1930s we'll talk about it um

1930s we'll talk about it um

1930s we'll talk about it um but staying to the psychology and

but staying to the psychology and

but staying to the psychology and philosophy

philosophy

philosophy picture what's the connection between

picture what's the connection between

picture what's the connection between the will to power in the individual as

the will to power in the individual as

the will to power in the individual as you mentioned and the will to power in a

you mentioned and the will to power in a

you mentioned and the will to power in a nation the will to power in an

nation the will to power in an

nation the will to power in an individual has a lot to do with

individual has a lot to do with

individual has a lot to do with individual's psychology uh the story

individual's psychology uh the story

individual's psychology uh the story that I tell about the pursuit of power

that I tell about the pursuit of power

that I tell about the pursuit of power is a structural argument it's an

is a structural argument it's an

is a structural argument it's an argument that says when you are in a

argument that says when you are in a

argument that says when you are in a particular structure when you're in a

particular structure when you're in a

particular structure when you're in a system that has a specific

system that has a specific

system that has a specific architecture which is

architecture which is

architecture which is anarchy the states have no choice but to

anarchy the states have no choice but to

anarchy the states have no choice but to compete for power uh so structure is

compete for power uh so structure is

compete for power uh so structure is really driving the story here Will To

really driving the story here Will To

really driving the story here Will To Power has a lot more to do with an

Power has a lot more to do with an

Power has a lot more to do with an individual uh in in the nichan story

individual uh in in the nichan story

individual uh in in the nichan story where that concept comes from so it's

where that concept comes from so it's

where that concept comes from so it's very important to understand that I'm

very important to understand that I'm

very important to understand that I'm not argu arguing that states are

not argu arguing that states are

not argu arguing that states are inherently aggressive right my point is

inherently aggressive right my point is

inherently aggressive right my point is that as long as states are in Anarchy

that as long as states are in Anarchy

that as long as states are in Anarchy right they have no choice but to behave

right they have no choice but to behave

right they have no choice but to behave in an aggressive fashion but if you went

in an aggressive fashion but if you went

in an aggressive fashion but if you went to a hierarchic system uh there's no

to a hierarchic system uh there's no

to a hierarchic system uh there's no reason for those states to worry about

reason for those states to worry about

reason for those states to worry about the balance of power because if they get

the balance of power because if they get

the balance of power because if they get into trouble there is a higher authority

into trouble there is a higher authority

into trouble there is a higher authority that they can turn to there is in effect

that they can turn to there is in effect

that they can turn to there is in effect the Leviathan so what is the role of

the Leviathan so what is the role of

the Leviathan so what is the role of military might in this uh will to power

military might in this uh will to power

military might in this uh will to power on the national level well military

on the national level well military

on the national level well military might what ultimately matters as I said

might what ultimately matters as I said

might what ultimately matters as I said to you before the two building blocks of

to you before the two building blocks of

to you before the two building blocks of Power are population size and wealth you

Power are population size and wealth you

Power are population size and wealth you didn't mention military money I did not

didn't mention military money I did not

didn't mention military money I did not no that's right and it's good that you

no that's right and it's good that you

no that's right and it's good that you CAU that because if you have a large

CAU that because if you have a large

CAU that because if you have a large population and you're a wealthy country

population and you're a wealthy country

population and you're a wealthy country what you do is you build a large

what you do is you build a large

what you do is you build a large military and it's ultimately the size of

military and it's ultimately the size of

military and it's ultimately the size of your military that matters uh because

your military that matters uh because

your military that matters uh because militaries fight Wars and if states are

militaries fight Wars and if states are

militaries fight Wars and if states are concerned about survival which I argue

concerned about survival which I argue

concerned about survival which I argue is the principal goal of every state in

is the principal goal of every state in

is the principal goal of every state in the International System for what I

the International System for what I

the International System for what I think are obvious reasons then they're

think are obvious reasons then they're

think are obvious reasons then they're going to care about having a powerful

going to care about having a powerful

going to care about having a powerful military that can protect them if

military that can protect them if

military that can protect them if another state comes after them what's

another state comes after them what's

another state comes after them what's not obvious that a large Nation with a

not obvious that a large Nation with a

not obvious that a large Nation with a lot of people and a a lot of money

lot of people and a a lot of money

lot of people and a a lot of money should necessarily build a gigantic Army

should necessarily build a gigantic Army

should necessarily build a gigantic Army and seek to attain

and seek to attain

and seek to attain superpower like dominant sole superpower

superpower like dominant sole superpower

superpower like dominant sole superpower status to military might but you're

status to military might but you're

status to military might but you're saying as you see the world today it has

saying as you see the world today it has

saying as you see the world today it has to be that way yeah I'm arguing it is

to be that way yeah I'm arguing it is

to be that way yeah I'm arguing it is obvious if you're a state in the

obvious if you're a state in the

obvious if you're a state in the International System uh do you want to

International System uh do you want to

International System uh do you want to be weak uh if you live next door to Nazi

be weak uh if you live next door to Nazi

be weak uh if you live next door to Nazi Germany or imperial Germany or napole

Germany or imperial Germany or napole

Germany or imperial Germany or napole iic France or even the United States the

iic France or even the United States the

iic France or even the United States the United States is a ruthless great power

United States is a ruthless great power

United States is a ruthless great power you surely recognize that and if you're

you surely recognize that and if you're

you surely recognize that and if you're dealing with the United States of

dealing with the United States of

dealing with the United States of America and you're Vladimir Putin you

America and you're Vladimir Putin you

America and you're Vladimir Putin you want to make sure you're as powerful as

want to make sure you're as powerful as

want to make sure you're as powerful as possible so that the United States

possible so that the United States

possible so that the United States doesn't put its gun sits on you and come

doesn't put its gun sits on you and come

doesn't put its gun sits on you and come after you same thing is true with China

after you same thing is true with China

after you same thing is true with China you want to be powerful in the

you want to be powerful in the

you want to be powerful in the International System States understand

International System States understand

International System States understand that and they go to Great Lengths to

that and they go to Great Lengths to

that and they go to Great Lengths to become powerful just take the United

become powerful just take the United

become powerful just take the United States of America when it started in

States of America when it started in

States of America when it started in 1783 it was comprised of 13 measly

1783 it was comprised of 13 measly

1783 it was comprised of 13 measly colonies strung out along the Atlantic

colonies strung out along the Atlantic

colonies strung out along the Atlantic Seaboard over time you know the uh

Seaboard over time you know the uh

Seaboard over time you know the uh various leaders of the United States

various leaders of the United States

various leaders of the United States went to Great Lengths to turn that

went to Great Lengths to turn that

went to Great Lengths to turn that country into the dominant power in the

country into the dominant power in the

country into the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere and then once that

Western Hemisphere and then once that

Western Hemisphere and then once that was achieved in 1900 we've gone to Great

was achieved in 1900 we've gone to Great

was achieved in 1900 we've gone to Great Lengths to make sure that there's no

Lengths to make sure that there's no

Lengths to make sure that there's no peer uh competitor in the system uh we

peer uh competitor in the system uh we

peer uh competitor in the system uh we just want to make sure that we're number

just want to make sure that we're number

just want to make sure that we're number one uh and my argument is that this is

one uh and my argument is that this is

one uh and my argument is that this is not peculiar to the United

not peculiar to the United

not peculiar to the United States uh if I'm China for example

States uh if I'm China for example

States uh if I'm China for example today I would want to dominate Asia the

today I would want to dominate Asia the

today I would want to dominate Asia the way the United States dominates the

way the United States dominates the

way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere they'd be fools not

Western Hemisphere they'd be fools not

Western Hemisphere they'd be fools not to if I were Imperial Germany I'd want

to if I were Imperial Germany I'd want

to if I were Imperial Germany I'd want to dominate all of Europe the way the

to dominate all of Europe the way the

to dominate all of Europe the way the United States dominates the Western

United States dominates the Western

United States dominates the Western Hemisphere why because if you dominate

Hemisphere why because if you dominate

Hemisphere why because if you dominate all of Europe assuming you're Imperial

all of Europe assuming you're Imperial

all of Europe assuming you're Imperial Germany or Napoleonic France then no

Germany or Napoleonic France then no

Germany or Napoleonic France then no other state in the area or in the region

other state in the area or in the region

other state in the area or in the region can threaten you because you're simply

can threaten you because you're simply

can threaten you because you're simply so

so

so powerful uh and again what I'm saying

powerful uh and again what I'm saying

powerful uh and again what I'm saying here is that the structure of the

here is that the structure of the

here is that the structure of the International System really matters it's

International System really matters it's

International System really matters it's the fact that you're in this anarchic

the fact that you're in this anarchic

the fact that you're in this anarchic system where survival is your principal

system where survival is your principal

system where survival is your principal goal and where I can't know your

goal and where I can't know your

goal and where I can't know your intentions right you're another state I

intentions right you're another state I

intentions right you're another state I can't know that at some point you might

can't know that at some point you might

can't know that at some point you might not come after me you might and if

not come after me you might and if

not come after me you might and if you're really powerful and I'm not I'm

you're really powerful and I'm not I'm

you're really powerful and I'm not I'm in deep trouble yeah so some of the

in deep trouble yeah so some of the

in deep trouble yeah so some of the ideas underlying what you've said uh

ideas underlying what you've said uh

ideas underlying what you've said uh offensive realism which I would love to

offensive realism which I would love to

offensive realism which I would love to talk to you about sort of the history of

talk to you about sort of the history of

talk to you about sort of the history of realism versus liberalism but some of

realism versus liberalism but some of

realism versus liberalism but some of the ideas you already mentioned uh

the ideas you already mentioned uh

the ideas you already mentioned uh Anarchy between

Anarchy between

Anarchy between states everybody's trying to develop a

states everybody's trying to develop a

states everybody's trying to develop a military capabilities uncertainty such

military capabilities uncertainty such

military capabilities uncertainty such an interesting concept uh States cannot

an interesting concept uh States cannot

an interesting concept uh States cannot be sure that other states will not use

be sure that other states will not use

be sure that other states will not use military capabilities against them which

military capabilities against them which

military capabilities against them which is that's of enormous importance story

is that's of enormous importance story

is that's of enormous importance story and so interesting because you also say

and so interesting because you also say

and so interesting because you also say that this makes realist more cautious

that this makes realist more cautious

that this makes realist more cautious and more

and more

and more peaceful the

peaceful the

peaceful the uncertainty because of all the

uncertainty because of all the

uncertainty because of all the uncertainty involved here it's better to

uncertainty involved here it's better to

uncertainty involved here it's better to approach International politics with

approach International politics with

approach International politics with caution which is really interesting to

caution which is really interesting to

caution which is really interesting to think about

think about

think about uh again survival most States interested

uh again survival most States interested

uh again survival most States interested in survival and the other interesting

in survival and the other interesting

in survival and the other interesting thing is you assume all the states are

rational um which most of the time most

rational um which most of the time most

rational um which most of the time most of the time you call this framework

of the time you call this framework

of the time you call this framework offensive realism C can you just give a

offensive realism C can you just give a

offensive realism C can you just give a overview of the history of the realism

overview of the history of the realism

overview of the history of the realism versus liberalism debate as World Views

versus liberalism debate as World Views

versus liberalism debate as World Views well I think for many centuries now the

well I think for many centuries now the

well I think for many centuries now the big

big

big divide uh within the world of

divide uh within the world of

divide uh within the world of international relations

international relations

international relations theory is between realism and liberalism

theory is between realism and liberalism

theory is between realism and liberalism these are Tim honored bodies of theory

these are Tim honored bodies of theory

these are Tim honored bodies of theory and before I tell you what I think the

and before I tell you what I think the

and before I tell you what I think the differences are between those two bodies

differences are between those two bodies

differences are between those two bodies of theory it is important to emphasize

of theory it is important to emphasize

of theory it is important to emphasize that there are differences among

that there are differences among

that there are differences among realists and differences among

realists and differences among

realists and differences among liberals uh um and so when you talk

liberals uh um and so when you talk

liberals uh um and so when you talk about me as an offensive realist you

about me as an offensive realist you

about me as an offensive realist you should understand that there are also

should understand that there are also

should understand that there are also defensive realists out there and there

defensive realists out there and there

defensive realists out there and there are uh a panoply of liberal theories as

are uh a panoply of liberal theories as

are uh a panoply of liberal theories as well but uh basically realists believe

well but uh basically realists believe

well but uh basically realists believe that power matters that states compete

that power matters that states compete

that power matters that states compete for power and that war is an instrument

for power and that war is an instrument

for power and that war is an instrument of

of

of statecraft and uh uh liberals on the

statecraft and uh uh liberals on the

statecraft and uh uh liberals on the other hand have what I would say is a

other hand have what I would say is a

other hand have what I would say is a more idealistic view of the world uh

more idealistic view of the world uh

more idealistic view of the world uh this is not to say that they're naive or

this is not to say that they're naive or

this is not to say that they're naive or foolish but they believe there are

foolish but they believe there are

foolish but they believe there are aspects of international

aspects of international

aspects of international politics uh that lead to a less

politics uh that lead to a less

politics uh that lead to a less competitive and more peaceful world than

competitive and more peaceful world than

competitive and more peaceful world than most realists see uh and I'll lay out

most realists see uh and I'll lay out

most realists see uh and I'll lay out for you very quickly what are the three

for you very quickly what are the three

for you very quickly what are the three major liberal theories today that I

major liberal theories today that I

major liberal theories today that I think will give you a sense of the more

think will give you a sense of the more

think will give you a sense of the more optimistic perspective that is inherent

optimistic perspective that is inherent

optimistic perspective that is inherent in the liberal

in the liberal

in the liberal Enterprise uh the first and most

Enterprise uh the first and most

Enterprise uh the first and most important of the liberal theories is

important of the liberal theories is

important of the liberal theories is democratic peace Theory and this is a

democratic peace Theory and this is a

democratic peace Theory and this is a theory that says democracies do not

theory that says democracies do not

theory that says democracies do not fight against other

fight against other

fight against other democracies so the more the world is

democracies so the more the world is

democracies so the more the world is populated with democracies the less like

populated with democracies the less like

populated with democracies the less like ly it is that we will have

ly it is that we will have

ly it is that we will have wars uh and this basic argument is

wars uh and this basic argument is

wars uh and this basic argument is inherent in Francis fukiyama the end of

inherent in Francis fukiyama the end of

inherent in Francis fukiyama the end of History he argues that democracy Triumph

History he argues that democracy Triumph

History he argues that democracy Triumph first over fascism in the 20th century

first over fascism in the 20th century

first over fascism in the 20th century it then triumphed over communism and

it then triumphed over communism and

it then triumphed over communism and that means that in the future we're have

that means that in the future we're have

that means that in the future we're have more and more liberal democracies on the

more and more liberal democracies on the

more and more liberal democracies on the planet and if you have more and more

planet and if you have more and more

planet and if you have more and more liberal democracies in those democ acies

liberal democracies in those democ acies

liberal democracies in those democ acies don't fight each other then you have a

don't fight each other then you have a

don't fight each other then you have a more peaceful world that was his

more peaceful world that was his

more peaceful world that was his argument it's a very liberal argument a

argument it's a very liberal argument a

argument it's a very liberal argument a realist like me would say that it

realist like me would say that it

realist like me would say that it doesn't matter whether a state is a

doesn't matter whether a state is a

doesn't matter whether a state is a democracy or not all states behave the

democracy or not all states behave the

democracy or not all states behave the same way because the structure of the

same way because the structure of the

same way because the structure of the system getting back to our earlier

system getting back to our earlier

system getting back to our earlier discussion about International Anarchy

discussion about International Anarchy

discussion about International Anarchy the structure of the system leaves those

the structure of the system leaves those

the structure of the system leaves those States no choice whether they're democ

States no choice whether they're democ

States no choice whether they're democ acies or autocracies and again the

acies or autocracies and again the

acies or autocracies and again the liberal view this first liberal theory

liberal view this first liberal theory

liberal view this first liberal theory is that democracies don't fight other

is that democracies don't fight other

is that democracies don't fight other democracies and therefore the more

democracies and therefore the more

democracies and therefore the more democracies you have the more peaceful

democracies you have the more peaceful

democracies you have the more peaceful the world can I just uh sort of try to

the world can I just uh sort of try to

the world can I just uh sort of try to unpack that a little bit so on the

unpack that a little bit so on the

unpack that a little bit so on the Democratic peace Theory I guess would

Democratic peace Theory I guess would

Democratic peace Theory I guess would say that in democracies leaders are

say that in democracies leaders are

say that in democracies leaders are elected and the underlying assumption is

elected and the underlying assumption is

elected and the underlying assumption is most people want peace and so they will

most people want peace and so they will

most people want peace and so they will elect peace makers so the more you

elect peace makers so the more you

elect peace makers so the more you democracies you have the more likely you

democracies you have the more likely you

democracies you have the more likely you have peace and then the realist

have peace and then the realist

have peace and then the realist perspective what says that it doesn't

perspective what says that it doesn't

perspective what says that it doesn't matter if the majority of people want

matter if the majority of people want

matter if the majority of people want peace the

peace the

peace the structure of international politics is

structure of international politics is

structure of international politics is such that superpowers want to become

such that superpowers want to become

such that superpowers want to become more Super and powerful and they do that

more Super and powerful and they do that

more Super and powerful and they do that through War you can't make that argument

through War you can't make that argument

through War you can't make that argument that you're making about democracies

that you're making about democracies

that you're making about democracies because if you're saying that

because if you're saying that

because if you're saying that democracies are inclined toward peace

democracies are inclined toward peace

democracies are inclined toward peace and the the electorate picks leaders who

and the the electorate picks leaders who

and the the electorate picks leaders who are inclined towards peace then you have

are inclined towards peace then you have

are inclined towards peace then you have to show that democracies are in general

to show that democracies are in general

to show that democracies are in general more peaceful than non-democracies and

more peaceful than non-democracies and

more peaceful than non-democracies and you can't support that argument you can

you can't support that argument you can

you can't support that argument you can find lots of evidence to support the

find lots of evidence to support the

find lots of evidence to support the argument that democracies don't fight

argument that democracies don't fight

argument that democracies don't fight other

other

other democracies so the argument I believe

democracies so the argument I believe

democracies so the argument I believe that you have to make if you're going to

that you have to make if you're going to

that you have to make if you're going to support Democratic peace Theory the main

support Democratic peace Theory the main

support Democratic peace Theory the main argument you have to make

argument you have to make

argument you have to make is that liberal

is that liberal

is that liberal democracies have a healthy respect for

democracies have a healthy respect for

democracies have a healthy respect for each other and they can assess each

each other and they can assess each

each other and they can assess each other's intentions if you're a liberal

other's intentions if you're a liberal

other's intentions if you're a liberal democracy and I'm a liberal democracy we

democracy and I'm a liberal democracy we

democracy and I'm a liberal democracy we know we have value systems that argue

know we have value systems that argue

know we have value systems that argue against aggression and argue for

against aggression and argue for

against aggression and argue for peaceful resolution of Christ es and

peaceful resolution of Christ es and

peaceful resolution of Christ es and therefore given these Norms we can trust

therefore given these Norms we can trust

therefore given these Norms we can trust each other we can know each other's

each other we can know each other's

each other we can know each other's intentions remember for realists like me

intentions remember for realists like me

intentions remember for realists like me uncertainty about intentions really

uncertainty about intentions really

uncertainty about intentions really helps Drive the train but if you're

helps Drive the train but if you're

helps Drive the train but if you're talking about two

talking about two

talking about two democracies right the argument there is

democracies right the argument there is

democracies right the argument there is that they know each other's intentions

that they know each other's intentions

that they know each other's intentions and for you sure maybe democracies

and for you sure maybe democracies

and for you sure maybe democracies reduce uncertainty a little bit but not

reduce uncertainty a little bit but not

reduce uncertainty a little bit but not enough to stop the train I think that's

enough to stop the train I think that's

enough to stop the train I think that's right yeah that's that's right so that's

right yeah that's that's right so that's

right yeah that's that's right so that's Democratic peace theory yes the second

Democratic peace theory yes the second

Democratic peace theory yes the second theory is economic interdependence

theory is economic interdependence

theory is economic interdependence Theory and that's the argument that in a

Theory and that's the argument that in a

Theory and that's the argument that in a globalized world like the one that we

globalized world like the one that we

globalized world like the one that we live in and have lived in for a long

live in and have lived in for a long

live in and have lived in for a long time there's a great deal of economic

time there's a great deal of economic

time there's a great deal of economic interdependence and if you and I are two

interdependence and if you and I are two

interdependence and if you and I are two countries uh or if you inm two countries

countries uh or if you inm two countries

countries uh or if you inm two countries and uh we're economically interdependent

and uh we're economically interdependent

and uh we're economically interdependent and we're both getting prosperous as a

and we're both getting prosperous as a

and we're both getting prosperous as a result of this economic intercourse the

result of this economic intercourse the

result of this economic intercourse the last thing that we're going to do is

last thing that we're going to do is

last thing that we're going to do is start a war either one of us because who

start a war either one of us because who

start a war either one of us because who would kill the goose that lays the

would kill the goose that lays the

would kill the goose that lays the golden eggs it's that kind of argument

golden eggs it's that kind of argument

golden eggs it's that kind of argument so there you have an argument that

so there you have an argument that

so there you have an argument that economic interdependence leads to peace

economic interdependence leads to peace

economic interdependence leads to peace and then the third liberal argument has

and then the third liberal argument has

and then the third liberal argument has to do with

to do with

to do with institutions uh sometimes referred to is

institutions uh sometimes referred to is

institutions uh sometimes referred to is liberal institutionalism and this is the

liberal institutionalism and this is the

liberal institutionalism and this is the argument that if you can get States into

argument that if you can get States into

argument that if you can get States into institutions where they become rule

institutions where they become rule

institutions where they become rule abiding

abiding

abiding actors they will obey the rule

actors they will obey the rule

actors they will obey the rule that dictate that war is not

that dictate that war is not

that dictate that war is not acceptable uh so if you get them to

acceptable uh so if you get them to

acceptable uh so if you get them to accept uh uh the UN rules on when you

accept uh uh the UN rules on when you

accept uh uh the UN rules on when you can and cannot initiate a war uh then

can and cannot initiate a war uh then

can and cannot initiate a war uh then you'll have a more peaceful world so

you'll have a more peaceful world so

you'll have a more peaceful world so those are the liberal theories and as

those are the liberal theories and as

those are the liberal theories and as you can tell they're very different from

you can tell they're very different from

you can tell they're very different from realism as articulated by somebody like

realism as articulated by somebody like

realism as articulated by somebody like me can you uh maybe argue against the

me can you uh maybe argue against the

me can you uh maybe argue against the economic interdependence and in the

economic interdependence and in the

economic interdependence and in the institutions that institutions follow

institutions that institutions follow

institutions that institutions follow rules um a little bit so the the the

rules um a little bit so the the the

rules um a little bit so the the the Golden Goose with the golden egg you're

Golden Goose with the golden egg you're

Golden Goose with the golden egg you're saying that nations are happy to kill

saying that nations are happy to kill

saying that nations are happy to kill the goose because again they want Power

the goose because again they want Power

the goose because again they want Power if they think it's necessary to kill the

if they think it's necessary to kill the

if they think it's necessary to kill the Golden Goose yeah because of security

Golden Goose yeah because of security

Golden Goose yeah because of security concerns they will do it the point is

concerns they will do it the point is

concerns they will do it the point is that economic

that economic

that economic interdependence at its root has

interdependence at its root has

interdependence at its root has Prosperity as the core variable yeah in

Prosperity as the core variable yeah in

Prosperity as the core variable yeah in the realist story The Core variable is

the realist story The Core variable is

the realist story The Core variable is survival and survival always trumps

survival and survival always trumps

survival and survival always trumps Prosperity so if you go back to the

Prosperity so if you go back to the

Prosperity so if you go back to the period before World War I we're in

period before World War I we're in

period before World War I we're in Europe it's

Europe it's

Europe it's 1913 or early 1914

1913 or early 1914

1913 or early 1914 what you see is that you have an intense

what you see is that you have an intense

what you see is that you have an intense security competition between all of the

security competition between all of the

security competition between all of the great powers on one side you have the

great powers on one side you have the

great powers on one side you have the Triple Alliance and on the other side

Triple Alliance and on the other side

Triple Alliance and on the other side you have the triple onon you have these

you have the triple onon you have these

you have the triple onon you have these two alliances and you have an intense

two alliances and you have an intense

two alliances and you have an intense security competition between them okay

security competition between them okay

security competition between them okay at the same time you have a great deal

at the same time you have a great deal

at the same time you have a great deal of economic interdependence it's amazing

of economic interdependence it's amazing

of economic interdependence it's amazing how much economic intercourse is taking

how much economic intercourse is taking

how much economic intercourse is taking place in Europe among all the actors

place in Europe among all the actors

place in Europe among all the actors right people are getting prosperous or

right people are getting prosperous or

right people are getting prosperous or countries are getting prosperous as a

countries are getting prosperous as a

countries are getting prosperous as a result but nevertheless in the famous

result but nevertheless in the famous

result but nevertheless in the famous July crisis of

July crisis of

July crisis of 1914 this economic Prosperity is unable

1914 this economic Prosperity is unable

1914 this economic Prosperity is unable to prevent World War I because security

to prevent World War I because security

to prevent World War I because security concerns or survival is more important

concerns or survival is more important

concerns or survival is more important uh so there are you know going to be

uh so there are you know going to be

uh so there are you know going to be lots of situations where prosperity and

lots of situations where prosperity and

lots of situations where prosperity and survival come into conflict and in those

survival come into conflict and in those

survival come into conflict and in those cases survival will win

cases survival will win

cases survival will win and uh maybe you can speak to the

and uh maybe you can speak to the

and uh maybe you can speak to the different camps of realists you said

different camps of realists you said

different camps of realists you said offensive and defensive can you draw a

offensive and defensive can you draw a

offensive and defensive can you draw a distinction between those two yeah let

distinction between those two yeah let

distinction between those two yeah let me just back up a bit on that one and

me just back up a bit on that one and

me just back up a bit on that one and you were talking about Will To Power

you were talking about Will To Power

you were talking about Will To Power before uh the first big

before uh the first big

before uh the first big divide between realists is structural

divide between realists is structural

divide between realists is structural realists and human nature realists nice

realists and human nature realists nice

realists and human nature realists nice and H

and H

and H morganth who was influenced by nature

morganth who was influenced by nature

morganth who was influenced by nature and

and

and therefore had that will to power logic

therefore had that will to power logic

therefore had that will to power logic embedded in his thinking about how the

embedded in his thinking about how the

embedded in his thinking about how the world works right he was a human nature

world works right he was a human nature

world works right he was a human nature realist okay I'm a structural

realist okay I'm a structural

realist okay I'm a structural realist and I believe it's not human

realist and I believe it's not human

realist and I believe it's not human nature it's it's not individuals and

nature it's it's not individuals and

nature it's it's not individuals and some Will To Power that drives

some Will To Power that drives

some Will To Power that drives competition and War what drives compet

competition and War what drives compet

competition and War what drives compet ition in war is the structure of the

ition in war is the structure of the

ition in war is the structure of the system it's Anarchy so you're not as

system it's Anarchy so you're not as

system it's Anarchy so you're not as romantic as the human nature realists

romantic as the human nature realists

romantic as the human nature realists yeah there's just a a world of

yeah there's just a a world of

yeah there's just a a world of difference between the two sure it's

difference between the two sure it's

difference between the two sure it's just important to understand that so

just important to understand that so

just important to understand that so within that this from the structural

within that this from the structural

within that this from the structural that there's a subdivision also of

that there's a subdivision also of

that there's a subdivision also of offensive and defensive yes inside the

offensive and defensive yes inside the

offensive and defensive yes inside the structural realist world right and you

structural realist world right and you

structural realist world right and you have a handful of realists who believe

have a handful of realists who believe

have a handful of realists who believe that the structure of the

that the structure of the

that the structure of the system Fosters competition for sure

system Fosters competition for sure

system Fosters competition for sure security competition but it really rules

security competition but it really rules

security competition but it really rules out great power War almost all the time

out great power War almost all the time

out great power War almost all the time so it makes sense to care about the

so it makes sense to care about the

so it makes sense to care about the balance of power but to focus on

balance of power but to focus on

balance of power but to focus on maintaining how much power you have

maintaining how much power you have

maintaining how much power you have that's the defense of realism

that's the defense of realism

that's the defense of realism maintaining how much power you have not

maintaining how much power you have not

maintaining how much power you have not trying to gain more power because the

trying to gain more power because the

trying to gain more power because the argument the defensive realists make is

argument the defensive realists make is

argument the defensive realists make is that if you try to gain more power the

that if you try to gain more power the

that if you try to gain more power the system will punish you the structure

system will punish you the structure

system will punish you the structure will punish

will punish

will punish you I'm not a defensive realist I'm an

you I'm not a defensive realist I'm an

you I'm not a defensive realist I'm an offensive realist and my argument is

offensive realist and my argument is

offensive realist and my argument is that states look for

that states look for

that states look for opportunities to gain more power and

opportunities to gain more power and

opportunities to gain more power and every time they see or almost every time

every time they see or almost every time

every time they see or almost every time they see an opportunity to gain more

they see an opportunity to gain more

they see an opportunity to gain more power um and they think the likelihood

power um and they think the likelihood

power um and they think the likelihood of success is high and the cost will not

of success is high and the cost will not

of success is high and the cost will not be great they'll jump at that

be great they'll jump at that

be great they'll jump at that opportunity just to linger on the human

opportunity just to linger on the human

opportunity just to linger on the human nature

nature

nature perspective how do you explain Hitler

perspective how do you explain Hitler

perspective how do you explain Hitler and Nazi

and Nazi

and Nazi Germany uh just one of the more

Germany uh just one of the more

Germany uh just one of the more recent

recent

recent aggressive expansions through military

aggressive expansions through military

aggressive expansions through military might how do you explain that in the

might how do you explain that in the

might how do you explain that in the framework of uh offensive

framework of uh offensive

framework of uh offensive realism well I think that Nazi Germany

realism well I think that Nazi Germany

realism well I think that Nazi Germany was driven in large part by structural

was driven in large part by structural

was driven in large part by structural considerations and I think if you look

considerations and I think if you look

considerations and I think if you look at Imperial Germany which was largely

at Imperial Germany which was largely

at Imperial Germany which was largely responsible for starting World War I and

responsible for starting World War I and

responsible for starting World War I and of course Nazi Germany's largely

of course Nazi Germany's largely

of course Nazi Germany's largely responsible for starting World War II

responsible for starting World War II

responsible for starting World War II what that tells you is you didn't need

what that tells you is you didn't need

what that tells you is you didn't need Adolf Hitler to start World War I right

Adolf Hitler to start World War I right

Adolf Hitler to start World War I right and I believe that there is a good

and I believe that there is a good

and I believe that there is a good chance you would have had World War II

chance you would have had World War II

chance you would have had World War II in the absence of Hitler right I believe

in the absence of Hitler right I believe

in the absence of Hitler right I believe that Germany was very powerful it was

that Germany was very powerful it was

that Germany was very powerful it was deeply worried about the balance of

deeply worried about the balance of

deeply worried about the balance of power in Europe and it had strong

power in Europe and it had strong

power in Europe and it had strong incentives to behave

incentives to behave

incentives to behave aggressively uh in in the late 1930s

aggressively uh in in the late 1930s

aggressively uh in in the late 1930s early

early

early 1940s so I I believe that structure

1940s so I I believe that structure

1940s so I I believe that structure mattered however I want to qualify that

mattered however I want to qualify that

mattered however I want to qualify that in the case of Adolf Hitler because I do

in the case of Adolf Hitler because I do

in the case of Adolf Hitler because I do think he had what you would call a Will

think he had what you would call a Will

think he had what you would call a Will To Power I've never used that word to

To Power I've never used that word to

To Power I've never used that word to describe him before but it's consistent

describe him before but it's consistent

describe him before but it's consistent with my point that I often make that

with my point that I often make that

with my point that I often make that there are two leaders or there have been

there are two leaders or there have been

there are two leaders or there have been two leaders in modern history who are

two leaders in modern history who are

two leaders in modern history who are congenital

congenital

congenital aggressors uh and one was Napoleon and

aggressors uh and one was Napoleon and

aggressors uh and one was Napoleon and the other was Hitler now if you want to

the other was Hitler now if you want to

the other was Hitler now if you want to call that a Will To Power you can do

call that a Will To Power you can do

call that a Will To Power you can do that I I'm more comfortable referring to

that I I'm more comfortable referring to

that I I'm more comfortable referring to H As A congenital aggressor and

H As A congenital aggressor and

H As A congenital aggressor and referring to Napoleon As A congenital

referring to Napoleon As A congenital

referring to Napoleon As A congenital aggressor although there were important

aggressor although there were important

aggressor although there were important differences between the two because

differences between the two because

differences between the two because Hitler was probably the most murderous

Hitler was probably the most murderous

Hitler was probably the most murderous leader uh in recorded history and

leader uh in recorded history and

leader uh in recorded history and Napoleon was not in that category at all

Napoleon was not in that category at all

Napoleon was not in that category at all uh but but both of them uh were uh

uh but but both of them uh were uh

uh but but both of them uh were uh driven by what you would call a Will To

driven by what you would call a Will To

driven by what you would call a Will To Power uh and that has to be uh married

Power uh and that has to be uh married

Power uh and that has to be uh married to the structural argument in Hitler's

to the structural argument in Hitler's

to the structural argument in Hitler's case and also in Napoleon's case is

case and also in Napoleon's case is

case and also in Napoleon's case is there some degree on the human

there some degree on the human

there some degree on the human psychology side that

psychology side that

psychology side that resentment because of how because of

resentment because of how because of

resentment because of how because of what happened after World War I led to

what happened after World War I led to

what happened after World War I led to Hitler wielding so much power and then

Hitler wielding so much power and then

Hitler wielding so much power and then Hitler starting World War II so this is

Hitler starting World War II so this is

Hitler starting World War II so this is the The Human Side perhaps the reason I

the The Human Side perhaps the reason I

the The Human Side perhaps the reason I asked that question is also because you

asked that question is also because you

asked that question is also because you mentioned the century of humiliation on

mentioned the century of humiliation on

mentioned the century of humiliation on the China side so to so to which degree

the China side so to so to which degree

the China side so to so to which degree did

did

did humiliation lead to Hitler and lead to

humiliation lead to Hitler and lead to

humiliation lead to Hitler and lead to World War I well the question of what

World War I well the question of what

World War I well the question of what led to Hitler is a very different

led to Hitler is a very different

led to Hitler is a very different question than the question of what led

question than the question of what led

question than the question of what led to World War II once Hitler was in power

to World War II once Hitler was in power

to World War II once Hitler was in power I mean after January 30th 1933 he's in

I mean after January 30th 1933 he's in

I mean after January 30th 1933 he's in power and then the question of what is

power and then the question of what is

power and then the question of what is driving him comes racing to the four uh

driving him comes racing to the four uh

driving him comes racing to the four uh is there resentment over the Versa

is there resentment over the Versa

is there resentment over the Versa treaty and what happened to Germany yes

treaty and what happened to Germany yes

treaty and what happened to Germany yes did that matter yes but my argument is

did that matter yes but my argument is

did that matter yes but my argument is that structure was the principal Factor

that structure was the principal Factor

that structure was the principal Factor uh driving the train in Hitler's case

uh driving the train in Hitler's case

uh driving the train in Hitler's case but what I'm saying here is that there

but what I'm saying here is that there

but what I'm saying here is that there were other factors well as well

were other factors well as well

were other factors well as well resentment being one of them will to

resentment being one of them will to

resentment being one of them will to power or the fact that he was A

power or the fact that he was A

power or the fact that he was A congenital aggressor in my lexicon uh

congenital aggressor in my lexicon uh

congenital aggressor in my lexicon uh certainly mattered as well so I I don't

certainly mattered as well so I I don't

certainly mattered as well so I I don't want to dismiss um your point uh about

want to dismiss um your point uh about

want to dismiss um your point uh about resentment so Hitler in particular the

resentment so Hitler in particular the

resentment so Hitler in particular the way he wielded the way he gained so much

way he wielded the way he gained so much

way he wielded the way he gained so much power might have

power might have

power might have been the general resentment of the

been the general resentment of the

been the general resentment of the populace of the German populace I think

populace of the German populace I think

populace of the German populace I think that uh as a result of um defea in World

that uh as a result of um defea in World

that uh as a result of um defea in World War I and all the trials and

War I and all the trials and

War I and all the trials and tribulations associated with viar

tribulations associated with viar

tribulations associated with viar Germany and then the coming of uh the

Germany and then the coming of uh the

Germany and then the coming of uh the Great Depression all of those factors

Great Depression all of those factors

Great Depression all of those factors definitely account for his coming to

definitely account for his coming to

definitely account for his coming to power I think that one of the

power I think that one of the

power I think that one of the reasons um that he was so successful at

reasons um that he was so successful at

reasons um that he was so successful at winning over the German people once he

winning over the German people once he

winning over the German people once he came to

came to

came to power uh was because there was a great

power uh was because there was a great

power uh was because there was a great deal of resentment uh in the German body

deal of resentment uh in the German body

deal of resentment uh in the German body politic and he played on that resentment

politic and he played on that resentment

politic and he played on that resentment that surely helped them get elected too

that surely helped them get elected too

that surely helped them get elected too but I think having studied the

but I think having studied the

but I think having studied the it was even more important once he took

it was even more important once he took

it was even more important once he took over I also believe that one of the

over I also believe that one of the

over I also believe that one of the principal reasons that he was so popular

principal reasons that he was so popular

principal reasons that he was so popular and he was wildly popular inside Nazi

and he was wildly popular inside Nazi

and he was wildly popular inside Nazi Germany is because he was the only

Germany is because he was the only

Germany is because he was the only leader of an industrialized country who

leader of an industrialized country who

leader of an industrialized country who pulled his country out of

pulled his country out of

pulled his country out of depression uh and that really

depression uh and that really

depression uh and that really mattered uh and uh it made him uh very

mattered uh and uh it made him uh very

mattered uh and uh it made him uh very effective it's also worth noting that he

effective it's also worth noting that he

effective it's also worth noting that he was a remarkably Charis Matic individual

was a remarkably Charis Matic individual

was a remarkably Charis Matic individual uh I find that hard to believe because

uh I find that hard to believe because

uh I find that hard to believe because every time I look at him or listen to

every time I look at him or listen to

every time I look at him or listen to his speeches uh he does not appear to be

his speeches uh he does not appear to be

his speeches uh he does not appear to be charismatic to me but uh I've talked to

charismatic to me but uh I've talked to

charismatic to me but uh I've talked to a number of people who are experts on

a number of people who are experts on

a number of people who are experts on this subject who assure me that he was

this subject who assure me that he was

this subject who assure me that he was very charismatic and I would note to you

very charismatic and I would note to you

very charismatic and I would note to you if you look at public opinion polls in

if you look at public opinion polls in

if you look at public opinion polls in Germany West Germany in the late 1940s

Germany West Germany in the late 1940s

Germany West Germany in the late 1940s this is the late 1940s after the Third

this is the late 1940s after the Third

this is the late 1940s after the Third Reich is destroyed in 1945

Reich is destroyed in 1945

Reich is destroyed in 1945 he is still remarkably popular in the

he is still remarkably popular in the

he is still remarkably popular in the polls Stalin is still popular in many

polls Stalin is still popular in many

polls Stalin is still popular in many parts of Eastern Europe yeah yeah and

parts of Eastern Europe yeah yeah and

parts of Eastern Europe yeah yeah and Stalin's popular in many quarters inside

Stalin's popular in many quarters inside

Stalin's popular in many quarters inside Russia uh and Stalin murdered more of

Russia uh and Stalin murdered more of

Russia uh and Stalin murdered more of his own people than he murdered people

his own people than he murdered people

his own people than he murdered people outside of the Soviet Union and still to

outside of the Soviet Union and still to

outside of the Soviet Union and still to you the ties of History turn not on

you the ties of History turn not on

you the ties of History turn not on individuals but on structural

individuals but on structural

individuals but on structural considerations so so Hitler may be a uh

considerations so so Hitler may be a uh

considerations so so Hitler may be a uh surface

surface

surface layer characteristics of how Germany

layer characteristics of how Germany

layer characteristics of how Germany started a war but not the really the

started a war but not the really the

started a war but not the really the reason well history is a

reason well history is a

reason well history is a multi-dimensional phenomenon oh I hear

multi-dimensional phenomenon oh I hear

multi-dimensional phenomenon oh I hear and we're talking about Interstate

and we're talking about Interstate

and we're talking about Interstate relations here yes and realism is a

relations here yes and realism is a

relations here yes and realism is a theory about how States interact with

theory about how States interact with

theory about how States interact with each other and there are many other

each other and there are many other

each other and there are many other dimensions to International politics and

dimensions to International politics and

dimensions to International politics and if you're talking talking about someone

if you're talking talking about someone

if you're talking talking about someone like Adolf Hitler right uh why did he

like Adolf Hitler right uh why did he

like Adolf Hitler right uh why did he start World War II uh is a very

start World War II uh is a very

start World War II uh is a very different question then why did he uh

different question then why did he uh

different question then why did he uh start the Holocaust or why did he push

start the Holocaust or why did he push

start the Holocaust or why did he push forward a holocaust I mean that's you

forward a holocaust I mean that's you

forward a holocaust I mean that's you know a different question and realism

know a different question and realism

know a different question and realism doesn't answer that question so I want

doesn't answer that question so I want

doesn't answer that question so I want to be very clear that you know I'm not

to be very clear that you know I'm not

to be very clear that you know I'm not someone who argues that realism answers

someone who argues that realism answers

someone who argues that realism answers every question about International

every question about International

every question about International politics but it does answer what is you

politics but it does answer what is you

politics but it does answer what is you know one of the big if not the biggest

know one of the big if not the biggest

know one of the big if not the biggest questions that IR Scholars care about

questions that IR Scholars care about

questions that IR Scholars care about which is what causes security

which is what causes security

which is what causes security competition and what causes great power

competition and what causes great power

competition and what causes great power War does offensive realism answer the

War does offensive realism answer the

War does offensive realism answer the question why

question why

question why Hitler attacked the Soviet Union Yes

Hitler attacked the Soviet Union Yes

Hitler attacked the Soviet Union Yes because from a military strategy

because from a military strategy

because from a military strategy perspective you know there's pros and

perspective you know there's pros and

perspective you know there's pros and cons to that decision pros and cons to

cons to that decision pros and cons to

cons to that decision pros and cons to every decision the question is is did he

every decision the question is is did he

every decision the question is is did he think that he could win a quick and

think that he could win a quick and

think that he could win a quick and decisive Victory and uh he did I mean as

decisive Victory and uh he did I mean as

decisive Victory and uh he did I mean as did his generals it's very interesting I

did his generals it's very interesting I

did his generals it's very interesting I I've spent a lot of time studying German

I've spent a lot of time studying German

I've spent a lot of time studying German decision making uh in World War II if

decision making uh in World War II if

decision making uh in World War II if you look at the German decision um to

you look at the German decision um to

you look at the German decision um to invade Poland on September 1st 1939 and

invade Poland on September 1st 1939 and

invade Poland on September 1st 1939 and you look at the uh German decision to

you look at the uh German decision to

you look at the uh German decision to invade France on May 10th 1940 and then

invade France on May 10th 1940 and then

invade France on May 10th 1940 and then the Soviet Union on June 22nd 1941

the Soviet Union on June 22nd 1941

the Soviet Union on June 22nd 1941 what you see is there was actually quite

what you see is there was actually quite

what you see is there was actually quite a bit of resistance to Hitler in

a bit of resistance to Hitler in

a bit of resistance to Hitler in 1938 at the time of jeos Slovakia Munich

1938 at the time of jeos Slovakia Munich

1938 at the time of jeos Slovakia Munich and there was also quite a bit of

and there was also quite a bit of

and there was also quite a bit of resistance in September

resistance in September

resistance in September 1939 internally or you mean internally

1939 internally or you mean internally

1939 internally or you mean internally internally for sure yeah people had

internally for sure yeah people had

internally for sure yeah people had doubts they didn't think the ver mock

doubts they didn't think the ver mock

doubts they didn't think the ver mock was ready and given the fact that world

was ready and given the fact that world

was ready and given the fact that world war one had just ended about 20 years

war one had just ended about 20 years

war one had just ended about 20 years before the thought of starting another

before the thought of starting another

before the thought of starting another European war was not especially

European war was not especially

European war was not especially attractive to lots of German policy

attractive to lots of German policy

attractive to lots of German policy makers including military

makers including military

makers including military leaders and then came France 1940 in the

leaders and then came France 1940 in the

leaders and then came France 1940 in the runup to May 10th 1940 uh there was huge

runup to May 10th 1940 uh there was huge

runup to May 10th 1940 uh there was huge resistance uh in the uh German Army to

resistance uh in the uh German Army to

resistance uh in the uh German Army to attacking France uh but that was

attacking France uh but that was

attacking France uh but that was eventually eliminated because they came

eventually eliminated because they came

eventually eliminated because they came up with a clever plan uh the man Stein

up with a clever plan uh the man Stein

up with a clever plan uh the man Stein plan if you look at the decision to

plan if you look at the decision to

plan if you look at the decision to invade the Soviet Union on June 22nd

invade the Soviet Union on June 22nd

invade the Soviet Union on June 22nd 1941 which is the only case where they

1941 which is the only case where they

1941 which is the only case where they fail they succeeded in France they

fail they succeeded in France they

fail they succeeded in France they succeeded in Poland they suceeded uh at

succeeded in Poland they suceeded uh at

succeeded in Poland they suceeded uh at Munich in

Munich in

Munich in 1938 Soviet Union is where they fail

1938 Soviet Union is where they fail

1938 Soviet Union is where they fail there's hardly any resistance at all

there's hardly any resistance at all

there's hardly any resistance at all right yeah well and to say that they

right yeah well and to say that they

right yeah well and to say that they failed the Soviet Union I mean my

failed the Soviet Union I mean my

failed the Soviet Union I mean my grandfather F I mean from from the

grandfather F I mean from from the

grandfather F I mean from from the Soviet Union you know there's a lot lot

Soviet Union you know there's a lot lot

Soviet Union you know there's a lot lot of successes early on so there's poor

of successes early on so there's poor

of successes early on so there's poor military I would say uh strategic

military I would say uh strategic

military I would say uh strategic decisions along the way but it was uh it

decisions along the way but it was uh it

decisions along the way but it was uh it caught Stalin offu

caught Stalin offu

caught Stalin offu guard maybe you can correct me but from

guard maybe you can correct me but from

guard maybe you can correct me but from my

perspective terrifyingly so they could

perspective terrifyingly so they could

perspective terrifyingly so they could have been successful if certain

have been successful if certain

have been successful if certain different decisions were made from a

different decisions were made from a

different decisions were made from a military perspective yeah I I've always

military perspective yeah I I've always

military perspective yeah I I've always had the sense they came terrifyingly

had the sense they came terrifyingly

had the sense they came terrifyingly close to winning uh you can make the

close to winning uh you can make the

close to winning uh you can make the opposite argument that they were doomed

opposite argument that they were doomed

opposite argument that they were doomed uh but I I'm not terribly comfortable

uh but I I'm not terribly comfortable

uh but I I'm not terribly comfortable making that argument I think the ver

making that argument I think the ver

making that argument I think the ver mock by the summer of

mock by the summer of

mock by the summer of 1941 was a finally tuned instrument for

1941 was a finally tuned instrument for

1941 was a finally tuned instrument for War and the Red Army was in quite

War and the Red Army was in quite

War and the Red Army was in quite terrible shape uh Stalin had purged the

terrible shape uh Stalin had purged the

terrible shape uh Stalin had purged the officer Corp uh they had performed po

officer Corp uh they had performed po

officer Corp uh they had performed po poorly in Finland uh and uh there were

poorly in Finland uh and uh there were

poorly in Finland uh and uh there were all sorts of reasons to think that they

all sorts of reasons to think that they

all sorts of reasons to think that they were no match for the ver moed and if

were no match for the ver moed and if

were no match for the ver moed and if you look at what happened in the initial

you look at what happened in the initial

you look at what happened in the initial stages of the conflict that proved to be

stages of the conflict that proved to be

stages of the conflict that proved to be the case uh the Germans won a lot of

the case uh the Germans won a lot of

the case uh the Germans won a lot of significant tactical victories early on

significant tactical victories early on

significant tactical victories early on and if they focused and went to Moscow

and if they focused and went to Moscow

and if they focused and went to Moscow as quickly as possible it's again

as quickly as possible it's again

as quickly as possible it's again terrifyingly so could have been uh

terrifyingly so could have been uh

terrifyingly so could have been uh basically topple topple Stalin um and

basically topple topple Stalin um and

basically topple topple Stalin um and one thing that's that's possible that's

one thing that's that's possible that's

one thing that's that's possible that's possible fortunately we're not going to

possible fortunately we're not going to

possible fortunately we're not going to run the experiment again but one could

run the experiment again but one could

run the experiment again but one could argue that that had they concentrated as

argue that that had they concentrated as

argue that that had they concentrated as the generals wanted to do in going

the generals wanted to do in going

the generals wanted to do in going straight for Moscow that they would have

straight for Moscow that they would have

straight for Moscow that they would have won I mean what Hitler wanted to do is

won I mean what Hitler wanted to do is

won I mean what Hitler wanted to do is he he wanted to go into the Ukraine I

he he wanted to go into the Ukraine I

he he wanted to go into the Ukraine I mean Hitler thought that the main axis

mean Hitler thought that the main axis

mean Hitler thought that the main axis uh there were three axes the northern

uh there were three axes the northern

uh there were three axes the northern axis went towards Leningrad the central

axis went towards Leningrad the central

axis went towards Leningrad the central AIS of course went to Moscow and then

AIS of course went to Moscow and then

AIS of course went to Moscow and then the southern Access Army group South uh

the southern Access Army group South uh

the southern Access Army group South uh headed towards Ukraine and deep into the

headed towards Ukraine and deep into the

headed towards Ukraine and deep into the caucuses and Hitler believed that uh

caucuses and Hitler believed that uh

caucuses and Hitler believed that uh that that should have been the main axis

that that should have been the main axis

that that should have been the main axis and in fact in

and in fact in

and in fact in 1942 the Soviets excuse me the Germans

1942 the Soviets excuse me the Germans

1942 the Soviets excuse me the Germans go back on the offensive in 19 42 this

go back on the offensive in 19 42 this

go back on the offensive in 19 42 this is Operation Blue and the main axis in

is Operation Blue and the main axis in

is Operation Blue and the main axis in 42 is deep into the Ukraine and into the

42 is deep into the Ukraine and into the

42 is deep into the Ukraine and into the caucuses and that fails but one could

caucuses and that fails but one could

caucuses and that fails but one could argue that had they done that in 41 had

argue that had they done that in 41 had

argue that had they done that in 41 had they not gone to Moscow had they gone

they not gone to Moscow had they gone

they not gone to Moscow had they gone you know had they concentrated on going

you know had they concentrated on going

you know had they concentrated on going deep into Ukraine and into the caucuses

deep into Ukraine and into the caucuses

deep into Ukraine and into the caucuses they could have knock the Soviets out

they could have knock the Soviets out

they could have knock the Soviets out that way uh I'm I'm not sure that in the

that way uh I'm I'm not sure that in the

that way uh I'm I'm not sure that in the end I believe that I I think in the end

end I believe that I I think in the end

end I believe that I I think in the end the Soviets would have won no matter

the Soviets would have won no matter

the Soviets would have won no matter what but I'm not 100% sure of that that

what but I'm not 100% sure of that that

what but I'm not 100% sure of that that so sometimes um maybe you can educate me

so sometimes um maybe you can educate me

so sometimes um maybe you can educate me but sometimes you know they say just

but sometimes you know they say just

but sometimes you know they say just like when Napoleon winter defeated

like when Napoleon winter defeated

like when Napoleon winter defeated Hitler in in Russia I think not often

Hitler in in Russia I think not often

Hitler in in Russia I think not often enough people tell the story of the the

enough people tell the story of the the

enough people tell the story of the the soldiers and the the motivation and how

soldiers and the the motivation and how

soldiers and the the motivation and how hard they

hard they

hard they fight so uh it turns out that ukrainians

fight so uh it turns out that ukrainians

fight so uh it turns out that ukrainians and Russians are not easy to conquer

and Russians are not easy to conquer

and Russians are not easy to conquer they're the kinds of people that don't

they're the kinds of people that don't

they're the kinds of people that don't roll over and fight bravely there seems

roll over and fight bravely there seems

roll over and fight bravely there seems to be a difference in certain people

to be a difference in certain people

to be a difference in certain people peoples in how they see War how they

peoples in how they see War how they

peoples in how they see War how they approach War how proud they are to fight

approach War how proud they are to fight

approach War how proud they are to fight for their country to die for their

for their country to die for their

for their country to die for their country these kinds of things so I think

country these kinds of things so I think

country these kinds of things so I think Battle of staling gr tells at least to

Battle of staling gr tells at least to

Battle of staling gr tells at least to me a story of extremely Brave fighting

me a story of extremely Brave fighting

me a story of extremely Brave fighting on the Soviet side and that it's a

on the Soviet side and that it's a

on the Soviet side and that it's a component of War I it's not just

component of War I it's not just

component of War I it's not just structural it's not just military

structural it's not just military

structural it's not just military strategy

strategy

strategy it's also the humans involved but maybe

it's also the humans involved but maybe

it's also the humans involved but maybe that's a romantic notion of war no I I

that's a romantic notion of war no I I

that's a romantic notion of war no I I think there's a great deal of Truth in

think there's a great deal of Truth in

think there's a great deal of Truth in that but let's just unpack it a bit in

that but let's just unpack it a bit in

that but let's just unpack it a bit in the case of uh the Soviet Union in World

the case of uh the Soviet Union in World

the case of uh the Soviet Union in World War II the counterargument to that um is

War II the counterargument to that um is

War II the counterargument to that um is that in World War I the uh Russian army

that in World War I the uh Russian army

that in World War I the uh Russian army disintegrated uh and uh if you look at

disintegrated uh and uh if you look at

disintegrated uh and uh if you look at what happened when Napoleon and invaded

what happened when Napoleon and invaded

what happened when Napoleon and invaded in

in

in 1812 and you look at what happened in

1812 and you look at what happened in

1812 and you look at what happened in 1917 and then you look at what happened

1917 and then you look at what happened

1917 and then you look at what happened between 41 and

between 41 and

between 41 and 45 the Napoleon case looks a lot like

45 the Napoleon case looks a lot like

45 the Napoleon case looks a lot like the Hitler case and it fits neatly with

the Hitler case and it fits neatly with

the Hitler case and it fits neatly with your argument but World War I does not

your argument but World War I does not

your argument but World War I does not fit neatly with your argument because

fit neatly with your argument because

fit neatly with your argument because the Russians lost and surrendered yeah

the Russians lost and surrendered yeah

the Russians lost and surrendered yeah and you had the infamous Treaty of BR

and you had the infamous Treaty of BR

and you had the infamous Treaty of BR lovk where the Soviet Union then cuz

lovk where the Soviet Union then cuz

lovk where the Soviet Union then cuz went from Russia to the Soviet Union in

went from Russia to the Soviet Union in

went from Russia to the Soviet Union in October 1917 the Soviet Union

October 1917 the Soviet Union

October 1917 the Soviet Union surrendered large amounts of uh Soviet

surrendered large amounts of uh Soviet

surrendered large amounts of uh Soviet territory because it had suffered a

territory because it had suffered a

territory because it had suffered a humiliating defeat my argument for why

humiliating defeat my argument for why

humiliating defeat my argument for why the Russians let me take that back why

the Russians let me take that back why

the Russians let me take that back why the Soviets fought like wild dogs in

the Soviets fought like wild dogs in

the Soviets fought like wild dogs in World War II is that they were up

World War II is that they were up

World War II is that they were up against a genocidal

against a genocidal

against a genocidal adversary you want understand that the

adversary you want understand that the

adversary you want understand that the Germans murdered huge numbers of Soviet

Germans murdered huge numbers of Soviet

Germans murdered huge numbers of Soviet p

p

p uh the overall total was 3.7 million and

uh the overall total was 3.7 million and

uh the overall total was 3.7 million and by December December of 1941 remember

by December December of 1941 remember

by December December of 1941 remember the invasion is June 41 by December of

the invasion is June 41 by December of

the invasion is June 41 by December of 1941 uh the Germans have murdered 2

1941 uh the Germans have murdered 2

1941 uh the Germans have murdered 2 million Soviet PS at that point in time

million Soviet PS at that point in time

million Soviet PS at that point in time they had murdered many more PWS than

they had murdered many more PWS than

they had murdered many more PWS than they had murdered Jews and this is not

they had murdered Jews and this is not

they had murdered Jews and this is not to deny for one second that they were on

to deny for one second that they were on

to deny for one second that they were on a murderous Rampage when it came to Jews

a murderous Rampage when it came to Jews

a murderous Rampage when it came to Jews but they were also on a murderous

but they were also on a murderous

but they were also on a murderous Rampage when it came to Soviet citizens

Rampage when it came to Soviet citizens

Rampage when it came to Soviet citizens and Soviet soldiers right so those

and Soviet soldiers right so those

and Soviet soldiers right so those Soviet soldiers quickly came to

Soviet soldiers quickly came to

Soviet soldiers quickly came to understand that they were fighting for

understand that they were fighting for

understand that they were fighting for their lives if they were taken prisoner

their lives if they were taken prisoner

their lives if they were taken prisoner they would die so they fought like wild

they would die so they fought like wild

they would die so they fought like wild dogs yeah you know the story of the

dogs yeah you know the story of the

dogs yeah you know the story of the Holocaust of the 6 million Jews is often

Holocaust of the 6 million Jews is often

Holocaust of the 6 million Jews is often told extensively if uh Hitler won

told extensively if uh Hitler won

told extensively if uh Hitler won conquer the Soviet Union it's terrifying

conquer the Soviet Union it's terrifying

conquer the Soviet Union it's terrifying to think on a much grander scam than the

to think on a much grander scam than the

to think on a much grander scam than the Holocaust what what would have happened

Holocaust what what would have happened

Holocaust what what would have happened to the Slavic people to the to the

to the Slavic people to the to the

to the Slavic people to the to the Soviet people absolutely all you have to

Soviet people absolutely all you have to

Soviet people absolutely all you have to do is read The Hunger plan right and

do is read The Hunger plan right and

do is read The Hunger plan right and they also had had a plan uh what is it

they also had had a plan uh what is it

they also had had a plan uh what is it called Grand planned East I forget the

called Grand planned East I forget the

called Grand planned East I forget the exact name of it uh which made it clear

exact name of it uh which made it clear

exact name of it uh which made it clear that they they were going to murder many

that they they were going to murder many

that they they were going to murder many tens of millions of people and by the

tens of millions of people and by the

tens of millions of people and by the way believe that they would have

way believe that they would have

way believe that they would have murdered all the Poes and all the Roma I

murdered all the Poes and all the Roma I

murdered all the Poes and all the Roma I mean my view is that the Jews were

mean my view is that the Jews were

mean my view is that the Jews were number one on the genocidal Hit List the

number one on the genocidal Hit List the

number one on the genocidal Hit List the Roma or the gypsies were number two and

Roma or the gypsies were number two and

Roma or the gypsies were number two and the Poes were number three uh and of

the Poes were number three uh and of

the Poes were number three uh and of course I just explained to you how many

course I just explained to you how many

course I just explained to you how many PS they had killed so they would have

PS they had killed so they would have

PS they had killed so they would have ended up murdering huge numbers of

ended up murdering huge numbers of

ended up murdering huge numbers of Soviet citizens as well but people

Soviet citizens as well but people

Soviet citizens as well but people quickly figured out that this was

quickly figured out that this was

quickly figured out that this was happening mhm that's my point to you and

happening mhm that's my point to you and

happening mhm that's my point to you and that gave them needless to say very

that gave them needless to say very

that gave them needless to say very powerful incentives to fight hard uh

powerful incentives to fight hard uh

powerful incentives to fight hard uh against uh the Germans and to make sure

against uh the Germans and to make sure

against uh the Germans and to make sure that they did not win to fast forward in

that they did not win to fast forward in

that they did not win to fast forward in time but not in

space let me ask you about uh the war in

Ukraine why did Russia invade Ukraine on

Ukraine why did Russia invade Ukraine on

Ukraine why did Russia invade Ukraine on February 24th 2022

February 24th 2022

February 24th 2022 what are some of the explanations given

what are some of the explanations given

what are some of the explanations given and which do you find the most

and which do you find the most

and which do you find the most convincing well clearly the conventional

convincing well clearly the conventional

convincing well clearly the conventional wisdom is that Putin uh is principally

wisdom is that Putin uh is principally

wisdom is that Putin uh is principally responsible Putin is an imperialist uh

responsible Putin is an imperialist uh

responsible Putin is an imperialist uh he's an expansionist that's the

he's an expansionist that's the

he's an expansionist that's the conventional thinking yeah yeah and the

conventional thinking yeah yeah and the

conventional thinking yeah yeah and the idea is that uh he he uh is bent on

idea is that uh he he uh is bent on

idea is that uh he he uh is bent on creating a greater Russia uh and even

creating a greater Russia uh and even

creating a greater Russia uh and even more so he's interested in dominating

more so he's interested in dominating

more so he's interested in dominating Eastern Europe Europe if not all of

Eastern Europe Europe if not all of

Eastern Europe Europe if not all of Europe um and that Ukraine was the first

Europe um and that Ukraine was the first

Europe um and that Ukraine was the first stop on the train line uh and what he

stop on the train line uh and what he

stop on the train line uh and what he wanted to do was to conquer all of

wanted to do was to conquer all of

wanted to do was to conquer all of Ukraine uh incorporated into a greater

Ukraine uh incorporated into a greater

Ukraine uh incorporated into a greater Russia and then he would move on and

Russia and then he would move on and

Russia and then he would move on and Conquer other countries this is the

Conquer other countries this is the

Conquer other countries this is the conventional wisdom my view is there is

conventional wisdom my view is there is

conventional wisdom my view is there is no evidence uh let me emphasize zero

no evidence uh let me emphasize zero

no evidence uh let me emphasize zero evidence to support that argument which

evidence to support that argument which

evidence to support that argument which part does he would the imperialist part

part does he would the imperialist part

part does he would the imperialist part the sense that he would he sought to

the sense that he would he sought to

the sense that he would he sought to conquer all of Ukraine and move on and

conquer all of Ukraine and move on and

conquer all of Ukraine and move on and Conquer there's no evidence he was

Conquer there's no evidence he was

Conquer there's no evidence he was interested in conquering all of Ukraine

interested in conquering all of Ukraine

interested in conquering all of Ukraine there was no interested there's no

there was no interested there's no

there was no interested there's no evidence beforehand that he was

evidence beforehand that he was

evidence beforehand that he was interested in coning conquering any of

interested in coning conquering any of

interested in coning conquering any of Ukraine and there's no way that an army

Ukraine and there's no way that an army

Ukraine and there's no way that an army that had

that had

that had 190,000 troops at the

190,000 troops at the

190,000 troops at the most right could have conquered curred

most right could have conquered curred

most right could have conquered curred all of Ukraine just impossible as I like

all of Ukraine just impossible as I like

all of Ukraine just impossible as I like to emphasize when the Germans went into

to emphasize when the Germans went into

to emphasize when the Germans went into Poland in

Poland in

Poland in 1939 uh and the Germans you want to

1939 uh and the Germans you want to

1939 uh and the Germans you want to remember were only intent on Conquering

remember were only intent on Conquering

remember were only intent on Conquering the Western half of Poland because the

the Western half of Poland because the

the Western half of Poland because the Soviets uh who came in later that month

Soviets uh who came in later that month

Soviets uh who came in later that month were going to conquer the eastern half

were going to conquer the eastern half

were going to conquer the eastern half of Poland so the Western half of Poland

of Poland so the Western half of Poland

of Poland so the Western half of Poland is much smaller than Ukraine and the

is much smaller than Ukraine and the

is much smaller than Ukraine and the Germans went in with 1.5 million troops

Germans went in with 1.5 million troops

Germans went in with 1.5 million troops uh if uh Vladimir Putin were bent on

uh if uh Vladimir Putin were bent on

uh if uh Vladimir Putin were bent on conquering all of Ukraine he would have

conquering all of Ukraine he would have

conquering all of Ukraine he would have needed at least two million troops I

needed at least two million troops I

needed at least two million troops I would argue he'd need three million

would argue he'd need three million

would argue he'd need three million troops because not only do he need to

troops because not only do he need to

troops because not only do he need to conquer the country you then have to

conquer the country you then have to

conquer the country you then have to occupy it uh but the idea that 190,000

occupy it uh but the idea that 190,000

occupy it uh but the idea that 190,000 troops was sufficient for conquering uh

troops was sufficient for conquering uh

troops was sufficient for conquering uh all of Ukraine is not a serious argument

all of Ukraine is not a serious argument

all of Ukraine is not a serious argument furthermore he was not interested in

furthermore he was not interested in

furthermore he was not interested in conquering Ukraine and that's why in

conquering Ukraine and that's why in

conquering Ukraine and that's why in March 2020 2 this is immediately after

March 2020 2 this is immediately after

March 2020 2 this is immediately after the war starts he is negotiating with

the war starts he is negotiating with

the war starts he is negotiating with zalinsky to end the war there are

zalinsky to end the war there are

zalinsky to end the war there are serious negotiations taking place in

serious negotiations taking place in

serious negotiations taking place in Istanbul involving the Turks and Naf

Istanbul involving the Turks and Naf

Istanbul involving the Turks and Naf Tali Bennett who was the Israeli Prime

Tali Bennett who was the Israeli Prime

Tali Bennett who was the Israeli Prime Minister at the time was deeply involved

Minister at the time was deeply involved

Minister at the time was deeply involved in negotiating with both Putin and

in negotiating with both Putin and

in negotiating with both Putin and zalinski to end the war well if he was

zalinski to end the war well if he was

zalinski to end the war well if he was interested Putin in conquering all of

interested Putin in conquering all of

interested Putin in conquering all of Ukraine why in God's name would he be

Ukraine why in God's name would he be

Ukraine why in God's name would he be negotiating with zinski to end the war

negotiating with zinski to end the war

negotiating with zinski to end the war and of course what they were negotiating

and of course what they were negotiating

and of course what they were negotiating about was NATO expansion into Ukraine

about was NATO expansion into Ukraine

about was NATO expansion into Ukraine which was the principal cause of the war

which was the principal cause of the war

which was the principal cause of the war uh people in the west don't want to hear

uh people in the west don't want to hear

uh people in the west don't want to hear that argument because if it is true

that argument because if it is true

that argument because if it is true which it is then the West is principally

which it is then the West is principally

which it is then the West is principally responsible for this bloodbath that's

responsible for this bloodbath that's

responsible for this bloodbath that's now taking place and of course the West

now taking place and of course the West

now taking place and of course the West doesn't want to be principally

doesn't want to be principally

doesn't want to be principally responsible it wants to blame Vladimir

responsible it wants to blame Vladimir

responsible it wants to blame Vladimir Putin so we've invented this story out

Putin so we've invented this story out

Putin so we've invented this story out of whole cloth that he is an aggressor

of whole cloth that he is an aggressor

of whole cloth that he is an aggressor that he's the second coming of Adolf

that he's the second coming of Adolf

that he's the second coming of Adolf Hitler and that what he did in Ukraine

Hitler and that what he did in Ukraine

Hitler and that what he did in Ukraine was try to uh to conquer all of it and

was try to uh to conquer all of it and

was try to uh to conquer all of it and he failed but uh with a little bit of

he failed but uh with a little bit of

he failed but uh with a little bit of luck he probably would have conquered

luck he probably would have conquered

luck he probably would have conquered all of it and he'd now be in the Baltic

all of it and he'd now be in the Baltic

all of it and he'd now be in the Baltic states and eventually end up uh

states and eventually end up uh

states and eventually end up uh dominating all of Eastern Europe as I

dominating all of Eastern Europe as I

dominating all of Eastern Europe as I said I think there's no no evidence to

said I think there's no no evidence to

said I think there's no no evidence to support this so maybe there's a lot of

support this so maybe there's a lot of

support this so maybe there's a lot of things to ask there maybe just to linger

things to ask there maybe just to linger

things to ask there maybe just to linger on NATO

on NATO

on NATO expansion what is NATO

expansion what is NATO

expansion what is NATO expansion what is the threat of NATO

expansion what is the threat of NATO

expansion what is the threat of NATO expansion and why is it such a concern

expansion and why is it such a concern

expansion and why is it such a concern for

for

for Russia

Russia

Russia NATO was a mortal enemy of the Soviet

NATO was a mortal enemy of the Soviet

NATO was a mortal enemy of the Soviet Union during the Cold War it's a

Union during the Cold War it's a

Union during the Cold War it's a military Alliance which has at its heart

military Alliance which has at its heart

military Alliance which has at its heart the United States of America which is

the United States of America which is

the United States of America which is the most powerful State on the planet

the most powerful State on the planet

the most powerful State on the planet it is perfectly understandable that

it is perfectly understandable that

it is perfectly understandable that Russia is not going to want that

Russia is not going to want that

Russia is not going to want that military Alliance on its doorstep here

military Alliance on its doorstep here

military Alliance on its doorstep here in the United States we have as you well

in the United States we have as you well

in the United States we have as you well know what's called the Monroe Doctrine

know what's called the Monroe Doctrine

know what's called the Monroe Doctrine and that basically says no great powers

and that basically says no great powers

and that basically says no great powers from Europe or Asia are allowed to come

from Europe or Asia are allowed to come

from Europe or Asia are allowed to come into our neighborhood and form a

into our neighborhood and form a

into our neighborhood and form a military alliance with anybody in this

military alliance with anybody in this

military alliance with anybody in this neighborhood uh when I was young there

neighborhood uh when I was young there

neighborhood uh when I was young there was this thing called the Cuban Missile

was this thing called the Cuban Missile

was this thing called the Cuban Missile Crisis the Soviets had the audacity to

Crisis the Soviets had the audacity to

Crisis the Soviets had the audacity to put nuclear armed missiles in Cuba we

put nuclear armed missiles in Cuba we

put nuclear armed missiles in Cuba we told them in no uncertain terms that

told them in no uncertain terms that

told them in no uncertain terms that that was not acceptable and that those

that was not acceptable and that those

that was not acceptable and that those missiles had to be removed this is our

missiles had to be removed this is our

missiles had to be removed this is our backyard and we do not tolerate distant

backyard and we do not tolerate distant

backyard and we do not tolerate distant great Powers coming into our

great Powers coming into our

great Powers coming into our neighborhood well what's good for the

neighborhood well what's good for the

neighborhood well what's good for the goose is good for the gander and if we

goose is good for the gander and if we

goose is good for the gander and if we don't like great Powers coming into our

don't like great Powers coming into our

don't like great Powers coming into our neighborhood it's hardly surprising that

neighborhood it's hardly surprising that

neighborhood it's hardly surprising that the Russians did not want want NATO on

the Russians did not want want NATO on

the Russians did not want want NATO on their doorstep uh they made that

their doorstep uh they made that

their doorstep uh they made that manifestly clear um when the Cold War

manifestly clear um when the Cold War

manifestly clear um when the Cold War ended and they exacted a promise from us

ended and they exacted a promise from us

ended and they exacted a promise from us that we would not expand NATO and then

that we would not expand NATO and then

that we would not expand NATO and then when we started expanding NATO they made

when we started expanding NATO they made

when we started expanding NATO they made it clear after the first trunch in 1999

it clear after the first trunch in 1999

it clear after the first trunch in 1999 that they were profoundly unhappy with

that they were profoundly unhappy with

that they were profoundly unhappy with that they made it clear in 2004 after

that they made it clear in 2004 after

that they made it clear in 2004 after the second trunch that they were

the second trunch that they were

the second trunch that they were profoundly happy with that

profoundly happy with that

profoundly happy with that expansion and then in April 2008 when

expansion and then in April 2008 when

expansion and then in April 2008 when NATO announced that uh Ukraine and

NATO announced that uh Ukraine and

NATO announced that uh Ukraine and Georgia would become part of NATO they

Georgia would become part of NATO they

Georgia would become part of NATO they made it unequivocally clear not just

made it unequivocally clear not just

made it unequivocally clear not just Putin that that was not going to happen

Putin that that was not going to happen

Putin that that was not going to happen they were drawing a Red Line in the Sand

they were drawing a Red Line in the Sand

they were drawing a Red Line in the Sand and it is no accident that in August

and it is no accident that in August

and it is no accident that in August 2008 remember the Bucharest Summit is

2008 remember the Bucharest Summit is

2008 remember the Bucharest Summit is April 2008 and August 2008 you had a war

April 2008 and August 2008 you had a war

April 2008 and August 2008 you had a war between Georgia and Russia and that

between Georgia and Russia and that

between Georgia and Russia and that involved at its core NATO expansion so

involved at its core NATO expansion so

involved at its core NATO expansion so uh the Americans and their allies should

uh the Americans and their allies should

uh the Americans and their allies should have understood by at least August 2008

have understood by at least August 2008

have understood by at least August 2008 that continuing to push to bring Ukraine

that continuing to push to bring Ukraine

that continuing to push to bring Ukraine into NATO was going to lead to disaster

into NATO was going to lead to disaster

into NATO was going to lead to disaster and I would note that there were all

and I would note that there were all

and I would note that there were all sorts of people in the 1990s like George

sorts of people in the 1990s like George

sorts of people in the 1990s like George Kennan William Perry who was Bill

Kennan William Perry who was Bill

Kennan William Perry who was Bill Clinton's Secretary of Defense the

Clinton's Secretary of Defense the

Clinton's Secretary of Defense the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Paul Nitza and so forth and so on who

Paul Nitza and so forth and so on who

Paul Nitza and so forth and so on who argued that NATO expansion would end up

argued that NATO expansion would end up

argued that NATO expansion would end up producing a disaster which it has I

producing a disaster which it has I

producing a disaster which it has I would note that uh at the famous April

would note that uh at the famous April

would note that uh at the famous April 2008 Bucharest Summit where NATO said

2008 Bucharest Summit where NATO said

2008 Bucharest Summit where NATO said that Ukraine would be brought into the

that Ukraine would be brought into the

that Ukraine would be brought into the alliance Angela Merkel and uh Nicholas

alliance Angela Merkel and uh Nicholas

alliance Angela Merkel and uh Nicholas sarosi the German and French leaders

sarosi the German and French leaders

sarosi the German and French leaders respectively opposed that decision

respectively opposed that decision

respectively opposed that decision Angela Merkel later said that the reason

Angela Merkel later said that the reason

Angela Merkel later said that the reason she opposed it was because she

she opposed it was because she

she opposed it was because she understood that Putin would interpret it

understood that Putin would interpret it

understood that Putin would interpret it as a declaration of war just think about

as a declaration of war just think about

as a declaration of war just think about that Merkel is telling you that she

that Merkel is telling you that she

that Merkel is telling you that she opposed NATO expansion into Ukraine

opposed NATO expansion into Ukraine

opposed NATO expansion into Ukraine because she understood correctly that

because she understood correctly that

because she understood correctly that Putin would see it as a declaration of

Putin would see it as a declaration of

Putin would see it as a declaration of war what did the United States and its

war what did the United States and its

war what did the United States and its friend in friends in Europe do they

friend in friends in Europe do they

friend in friends in Europe do they continue to push and push because we

continue to push and push because we

continue to push and push because we thought that we could push NATO

thought that we could push NATO

thought that we could push NATO expansion down their throat after 2008

expansion down their throat after 2008

expansion down their throat after 2008 the same way we did in 1999 and 2004 but

the same way we did in 1999 and 2004 but

the same way we did in 1999 and 2004 but we were wrong and it all blew up in our

we were wrong and it all blew up in our

we were wrong and it all blew up in our face in

face in

face in 2014 and when it blew up in our face in

2014 and when it blew up in our face in

2014 and when it blew up in our face in 2014 what did we do did we back off and

2014 what did we do did we back off and

2014 what did we do did we back off and say well maybe the Russians have some

say well maybe the Russians have some

say well maybe the Russians have some legitimate security interest no that's

legitimate security interest no that's

legitimate security interest no that's not the way we operate we continue to

not the way we operate we continue to

not the way we operate we continue to Double Down

Double Down

Double Down and the end result is that in 2022 you

and the end result is that in 2022 you

and the end result is that in 2022 you got a war and as I've argued for a long

got a war and as I've argued for a long

got a war and as I've argued for a long time now we the West are principally

time now we the West are principally

time now we the West are principally responsible for that not Vladimir Putin

responsible for that not Vladimir Putin

responsible for that not Vladimir Putin so the expansion of NATO is primarily

so the expansion of NATO is primarily

so the expansion of NATO is primarily responsible yeah to put it in more

responsible yeah to put it in more

responsible yeah to put it in more general terms what we were trying to do

general terms what we were trying to do

general terms what we were trying to do was turn Ukraine into a western bulwark

was turn Ukraine into a western bulwark

was turn Ukraine into a western bulwark on Russia's border and it really wasn't

on Russia's border and it really wasn't

on Russia's border and it really wasn't NATO expansion alone NATO expansion was

NATO expansion alone NATO expansion was

NATO expansion alone NATO expansion was the most important element of our

the most important element of our

the most important element of our strategy but the strategy had two other

strategy but the strategy had two other

strategy but the strategy had two other dimensions one was EU expansion and the

dimensions one was EU expansion and the

dimensions one was EU expansion and the third was the color

third was the color

third was the color Revolution we were trying to for orange

Revolution we were trying to for orange

Revolution we were trying to for orange revolution in Ukraine and the basic goal

revolution in Ukraine and the basic goal

revolution in Ukraine and the basic goal there was to turn Ukraine into a

there was to turn Ukraine into a

there was to turn Ukraine into a pro-western liberal

pro-western liberal

pro-western liberal democracy and that meant that you'd have

democracy and that meant that you'd have

democracy and that meant that you'd have Ukraine if it worked a pro-western

Ukraine if it worked a pro-western

Ukraine if it worked a pro-western liberal democracy that was in the EU and

liberal democracy that was in the EU and

liberal democracy that was in the EU and that was in NATO this was our goal and

that was in NATO this was our goal and

that was in NATO this was our goal and the Russians made it unequivocally clear

the Russians made it unequivocally clear

the Russians made it unequivocally clear Ukraine was not going to become a

Ukraine was not going to become a

Ukraine was not going to become a Western bullwark on their border and

Western bullwark on their border and

Western bullwark on their border and most importantly they made it clear that

most importantly they made it clear that

most importantly they made it clear that Ukraine in NATO was

Ukraine in NATO was

Ukraine in NATO was unacceptable can we talk about the mind

unacceptable can we talk about the mind

unacceptable can we talk about the mind of Vladimir Putin you've mentioned that

of Vladimir Putin you've mentioned that

of Vladimir Putin you've mentioned that this idea that he has aspirations

this idea that he has aspirations

this idea that he has aspirations for uh imperialist

for uh imperialist

for uh imperialist Conquest that he dreams of Empire is not

Conquest that he dreams of Empire is not

Conquest that he dreams of Empire is not grounded in reality he wrote an essay in

grounded in reality he wrote an essay in

grounded in reality he wrote an essay in 2021 about one

2021 about one

2021 about one people do you think there is some degree

people do you think there is some degree

people do you think there is some degree to

to

to which he still dreams of the former

which he still dreams of the former

which he still dreams of the former Soviet Union

Soviet Union

Soviet Union reuniting no he's made it clear that uh

reuniting no he's made it clear that uh

reuniting no he's made it clear that uh anybody with a a triple digit IQ

anybody with a a triple digit IQ

anybody with a a triple digit IQ understands that it's nuts to think

understands that it's nuts to think

understands that it's nuts to think about recreating the Soviet

about recreating the Soviet

about recreating the Soviet Union he thinks it's a tragedy that the

Union he thinks it's a tragedy that the

Union he thinks it's a tragedy that the Soviet Union fell apart but as he made

Soviet Union fell apart but as he made

Soviet Union fell apart but as he made clear in that essay the July 12th 2021

clear in that essay the July 12th 2021

clear in that essay the July 12th 2021 essay and as he made clear in speeches

essay and as he made clear in speeches

essay and as he made clear in speeches before immediately before he invaded

before immediately before he invaded

before immediately before he invaded Ukraine he

Ukraine he

Ukraine he accepted uh the breakup of the Soviet

accepted uh the breakup of the Soviet

accepted uh the breakup of the Soviet Union and he accepted uh the status quo

Union and he accepted uh the status quo

Union and he accepted uh the status quo in in Europe safe for the fact he did

in in Europe safe for the fact he did

in in Europe safe for the fact he did not accept the idea that Ukraine would

not accept the idea that Ukraine would

not accept the idea that Ukraine would become part of NATO he's been in power

become part of NATO he's been in power

become part of NATO he's been in power for over two decades is there a degree

for over two decades is there a degree

for over two decades is there a degree that power can

that power can

that power can affect a Leader's ability to see the

affect a Leader's ability to see the

affect a Leader's ability to see the world

world

world clearly as they say

clearly as they say

clearly as they say corrupt um do you think po has corrupted

corrupt um do you think po has corrupted

corrupt um do you think po has corrupted of Vladimir Putin to a degree it's very

of Vladimir Putin to a degree it's very

of Vladimir Putin to a degree it's very hard for me to answer that question

hard for me to answer that question

hard for me to answer that question because I I don't know him and I've not

because I I don't know him and I've not

because I I don't know him and I've not studied him carefully uh in terms of his

studied him carefully uh in terms of his

studied him carefully uh in terms of his overall performance over the course of

overall performance over the course of

overall performance over the course of you know the 23 years that he's been in

you know the 23 years that he's been in

you know the 23 years that he's been in power um I've studied him as a

power um I've studied him as a

power um I've studied him as a strategist and I've studied how he you

strategist and I've studied how he you

strategist and I've studied how he you know deals with the West uh and you know

know deals with the West uh and you know

know deals with the West uh and you know deals with the International System more

deals with the International System more

deals with the International System more generally uh since 2014

generally uh since 2014

generally uh since 2014 and I think he is a first class

and I think he is a first class

and I think he is a first class strategist this is not to say he doesn't

strategist this is not to say he doesn't

strategist this is not to say he doesn't make

make

make mistakes uh and he admits he's made some

mistakes uh and he admits he's made some

mistakes uh and he admits he's made some mistakes uh U but uh I think that the

mistakes uh U but uh I think that the

mistakes uh U but uh I think that the West is dealing with a formidable

West is dealing with a formidable

West is dealing with a formidable adversary here uh and I don't see any

adversary here uh and I don't see any

adversary here uh and I don't see any evidence that he's either lost speed off

evidence that he's either lost speed off

evidence that he's either lost speed off his fast ball or that power has

his fast ball or that power has

his fast ball or that power has corrupted his thinking about strategic

corrupted his thinking about strategic

corrupted his thinking about strategic Affairs so he has consistently put as a

Affairs so he has consistently put as a

Affairs so he has consistently put as a primary concern

primary concern

primary concern security as does the United States he's

security as does the United States he's

security as does the United States he's put for Russia security making sure that

put for Russia security making sure that

put for Russia security making sure that NATO doesn't get close to its borders I

NATO doesn't get close to its borders I

NATO doesn't get close to its borders I think that's clear yeah I I think as I

think that's clear yeah I I think as I

think that's clear yeah I I think as I emphasized early on in our conversation

emphasized early on in our conversation

emphasized early on in our conversation that leaders privilege security or

that leaders privilege security or

that leaders privilege security or survival over everything else and by the

survival over everything else and by the

survival over everything else and by the way he he gave a number of talks uh and

way he he gave a number of talks uh and

way he he gave a number of talks uh and press

press

press conferences uh in addition to writing

conferences uh in addition to writing

conferences uh in addition to writing that famous article that you referred to

that famous article that you referred to

that famous article that you referred to on July 12th 2021 so we have you know a

on July 12th 2021 so we have you know a

on July 12th 2021 so we have you know a pretty clear record of what he was

pretty clear record of what he was

pretty clear record of what he was saying and I would argue what he was

saying and I would argue what he was

saying and I would argue what he was thinking in the runup to the war in

thinking in the runup to the war in

thinking in the runup to the war in February

February

February 2022 and if you read uh what he said uh

2022 and if you read uh what he said uh

2022 and if you read uh what he said uh it's quite clear that he privileged

it's quite clear that he privileged

it's quite clear that he privileged security or survival he was deeply

security or survival he was deeply

security or survival he was deeply concerned about the security of Russia

concerned about the security of Russia

concerned about the security of Russia and Russia is a quite vulnerable state

and Russia is a quite vulnerable state

and Russia is a quite vulnerable state in a lot of ways especially if you think

in a lot of ways especially if you think

in a lot of ways especially if you think back to what it looked like in the 1990s

back to what it looked like in the 1990s

back to what it looked like in the 1990s is you know better than I do uh it was

is you know better than I do uh it was

is you know better than I do uh it was in terrible shape uh the Chinese talk

in terrible shape uh the Chinese talk

in terrible shape uh the Chinese talk about the century of national

about the century of national

about the century of national humiliation one could argue that for the

humiliation one could argue that for the

humiliation one could argue that for the Russians that was the decade of national

Russians that was the decade of national

Russians that was the decade of national humiliation and um and it took Putin I

humiliation and um and it took Putin I

humiliation and um and it took Putin I think quite a bit of time to bring the

think quite a bit of time to bring the

think quite a bit of time to bring the Russians back from the dead I think he

Russians back from the dead I think he

Russians back from the dead I think he eventually succeeded but uh it took a

eventually succeeded but uh it took a

eventually succeeded but uh it took a considerable amount of time and I think

considerable amount of time and I think

considerable amount of time and I think he understood that he was not playing a

he understood that he was not playing a

he understood that he was not playing a particularly strong hand he was playing

particularly strong hand he was playing

particularly strong hand he was playing something of a weak hand and he had to

something of a weak hand and he had to

something of a weak hand and he had to be very careful very cautious and I

be very careful very cautious and I

be very careful very cautious and I think he was uh and I think that's very

think he was uh and I think that's very

think he was uh and I think that's very different than the United States the

different than the United States the

different than the United States the United States was the unipole it was the

United States was the unipole it was the

United States was the unipole it was the most powerful state in the history of

most powerful state in the history of

most powerful state in the history of the world most powerful State relative

the world most powerful State relative

the world most powerful State relative to all its possible competitors from you

to all its possible competitors from you

to all its possible competitors from you know roughly 1989 certainly after

know roughly 1989 certainly after

know roughly 1989 certainly after December 1991 when the Soviet Union fell

December 1991 when the Soviet Union fell

December 1991 when the Soviet Union fell apart up until I would argue about 2017

apart up until I would argue about 2017

apart up until I would argue about 2017 we were incredibly powerful and even

we were incredibly powerful and even

we were incredibly powerful and even after

after

after 2017 up to today the United States

2017 up to today the United States

2017 up to today the United States Remains the most powerful state in the

Remains the most powerful state in the

Remains the most powerful state in the system and because of our geographical

system and because of our geographical

system and because of our geographical location uh we are in a uh terrific

location uh we are in a uh terrific

location uh we are in a uh terrific uh situation to survive in any great

uh situation to survive in any great

uh situation to survive in any great power competition so uh you have a

power competition so uh you have a

power competition so uh you have a situation involving the United States

situation involving the United States

situation involving the United States that's different than the situation

that's different than the situation

that's different than the situation involving Russia they're they're just

involving Russia they're they're just

involving Russia they're they're just much more vulnerable uh than we are and

much more vulnerable uh than we are and

much more vulnerable uh than we are and and therefore I think Putin tends to be

and therefore I think Putin tends to be

and therefore I think Putin tends to be more sensitive about security uh than

more sensitive about security uh than

more sensitive about security uh than any American president in recent Times

any American president in recent Times

any American president in recent Times Europe on one side China on the other

Europe on one side China on the other

Europe on one side China on the other side it's a complicated situation

side it's a complicated situation

side it's a complicated situation yeah and we talked before about 1812

yeah and we talked before about 1812

yeah and we talked before about 1812 when Napoleon invaded and Moscow got

when Napoleon invaded and Moscow got

when Napoleon invaded and Moscow got burned to the ground we talked about

burned to the ground we talked about

burned to the ground we talked about World War I where the Russians were

World War I where the Russians were

World War I where the Russians were actually defeated uh and surrendered uh

actually defeated uh and surrendered uh

actually defeated uh and surrendered uh and then we talked about 1941 to 1945

and then we talked about 1941 to 1945

and then we talked about 1941 to 1945 where although thankfully uh the Soviets

where although thankfully uh the Soviets

where although thankfully uh the Soviets prevailed uh it was uh it was a close

prevailed uh it was uh it was a close

prevailed uh it was uh it was a close call and I mean the casualties the

call and I mean the casualties the

call and I mean the casualties the destruction that the Soviet

destruction that the Soviet

destruction that the Soviet Union uh had inflicted on it by the

Union uh had inflicted on it by the

Union uh had inflicted on it by the Germans is just almost almost hard to

Germans is just almost almost hard to

Germans is just almost almost hard to believe

believe

believe just uh so they are sensitive you can

just uh so they are sensitive you can

just uh so they are sensitive you can understand full well or at least you

understand full well or at least you

understand full well or at least you should be able to understand full well

should be able to understand full well

should be able to understand full well why the idea of bringing Ukraine up to

why the idea of bringing Ukraine up to

why the idea of bringing Ukraine up to their border really spooked them uh I

their border really spooked them uh I

their border really spooked them uh I don't understand why more Americans

don't understand why more Americans

don't understand why more Americans don't understand that it just it it

don't understand that it just it it

don't understand that it just it it befuddles me I think it to do with the

befuddles me I think it to do with the

befuddles me I think it to do with the fact that Americans are not very good in

fact that Americans are not very good in

fact that Americans are not very good in putting themselves in the shoes of other

putting themselves in the shoes of other

putting themselves in the shoes of other countries uh and uh you really if if

countries uh and uh you really if if

countries uh and uh you really if if you're going to be a first class

you're going to be a first class

you're going to be a first class strategist in international politics you

strategist in international politics you

strategist in international politics you have to be able to do that you have to

have to be able to do that you have to

have to be able to do that you have to put yourself in the shoes of the other

put yourself in the shoes of the other

put yourself in the shoes of the other side and think about how they think so

side and think about how they think so

side and think about how they think so you don't make foolish mistakes and as a

you don't make foolish mistakes and as a

you don't make foolish mistakes and as a starting point Americans tend to see

starting point Americans tend to see

starting point Americans tend to see themselves as the good guys and a set of

themselves as the good guys and a set of

themselves as the good guys and a set of others as the bad guys and you have to

others as the bad guys and you have to

others as the bad guys and you have to be able to empathize that

be able to empathize that

be able to empathize that Russians think of themselves as the good

Russians think of themselves as the good

Russians think of themselves as the good guys the Chinese think of themselves as

guys the Chinese think of themselves as

guys the Chinese think of themselves as the good guys and just be able to

the good guys and just be able to

the good guys and just be able to empathize if they are the good guys it's

empathize if they are the good guys it's

empathize if they are the good guys it's like that uh funny skit are we the

like that uh funny skit are we the

like that uh funny skit are we the baddies consider the United States could

baddies consider the United States could

baddies consider the United States could be the bad guys like first of all EMP

be the bad guys like first of all EMP

be the bad guys like first of all EMP like see the world if the United States

like see the world if the United States

like see the world if the United States is the bad guys and China is the good

is the bad guys and China is the good

is the bad guys and China is the good guys what does that world look like be

guys what does that world look like be

guys what does that world look like be able to just exist with that thought

able to just exist with that thought

able to just exist with that thought because that is what the Chinese

because that is what the Chinese

because that is what the Chinese leadership and many Chinese citizens uh

leadership and many Chinese citizens uh

leadership and many Chinese citizens uh if not now maybe in the future will

if not now maybe in the future will

if not now maybe in the future will believe and you have to kind of do the

believe and you have to kind of do the

believe and you have to kind of do the calculation the simulation forward from

calculation the simulation forward from

calculation the simulation forward from that and same with Russia same with with

that and same with Russia same with with

that and same with Russia same with with other nations yeah I agree with you 100%

other nations yeah I agree with you 100%

other nations yeah I agree with you 100% and just you know I always think of

and just you know I always think of

and just you know I always think of Michael McFall at Stanford who was the

Michael McFall at Stanford who was the

Michael McFall at Stanford who was the American ambassador to uh Russia I think

American ambassador to uh Russia I think

American ambassador to uh Russia I think between 2012 and

between 2012 and

between 2012 and 2014 and uh he he told me that he told

2014 and uh he he told me that he told

2014 and uh he he told me that he told Putin uh that Putin didn't have to worry

Putin uh that Putin didn't have to worry

Putin uh that Putin didn't have to worry about NATO expansion because the United

about NATO expansion because the United

about NATO expansion because the United States was a benign

States was a benign

States was a benign hegemon and uh I asked Mike what Putin's

hegemon and uh I asked Mike what Putin's

hegemon and uh I asked Mike what Putin's response was to that and uh Mike said

response was to that and uh Mike said

response was to that and uh Mike said that Putin didn't believe it uh and uh

that Putin didn't believe it uh and uh

that Putin didn't believe it uh and uh but Mike believed it he should believe

but Mike believed it he should believe

but Mike believed it he should believe it and that we could move NATO Eastward

it and that we could move NATO Eastward

it and that we could move NATO Eastward to include Ukraine and in the end we'

to include Ukraine and in the end we'

to include Ukraine and in the end we' get away with it because we are a benign

get away with it because we are a benign

get away with it because we are a benign heiman but the fact is that's not what

heiman but the fact is that's not what

heiman but the fact is that's not what Putin saw Putin saw us as a malign

Putin saw Putin saw us as a malign

Putin saw Putin saw us as a malign hedgemon and what Mike thinks or any

hedgemon and what Mike thinks or any

hedgemon and what Mike thinks or any American thinks doesn't matter what

American thinks doesn't matter what

American thinks doesn't matter what matters is what Putin thinks but also

matters is what Putin thinks but also

matters is what Putin thinks but also the drums of War have been beating for

the drums of War have been beating for

the drums of War have been beating for some reason NATO expansion has been

some reason NATO expansion has been

some reason NATO expansion has been threatened for some reason so you've

threatened for some reason so you've

threatened for some reason so you've talked about NATO expansion being

talked about NATO expansion being

talked about NATO expansion being dead so like it doesn't make sense from

dead so like it doesn't make sense from

dead so like it doesn't make sense from a geop political perspective on the

a geop political perspective on the

a geop political perspective on the Europe side to expand NATO uh but

Europe side to expand NATO uh but

Europe side to expand NATO uh but nevertheless that threat has been uh

nevertheless that threat has been uh

nevertheless that threat has been uh echoed so um why has NATO expansion been

echoed so um why has NATO expansion been

echoed so um why has NATO expansion been pushed from your perspective there are

pushed from your perspective there are

pushed from your perspective there are two reasons one is first of all we

two reasons one is first of all we

two reasons one is first of all we thought it was a wonderful thing uh to

thought it was a wonderful thing uh to

thought it was a wonderful thing uh to bring more and more countries into NATO

bring more and more countries into NATO

bring more and more countries into NATO we thought that it facilitated peace and

we thought that it facilitated peace and

we thought that it facilitated peace and prosperity it was ultimately all for the

prosperity it was ultimately all for the

prosperity it was ultimately all for the goodh um and uh we also thought that uh

goodh um and uh we also thought that uh

goodh um and uh we also thought that uh uh countries like Ukraine had a right to

uh countries like Ukraine had a right to

uh countries like Ukraine had a right to join NATO these are sovereign countries

join NATO these are sovereign countries

join NATO these are sovereign countries that can decide for themselves and the

that can decide for themselves and the

that can decide for themselves and the Russians have no say in what Ukraine

Russians have no say in what Ukraine

Russians have no say in what Ukraine wants to do and then finally and uh this

wants to do and then finally and uh this

wants to do and then finally and uh this is a point I emphasized before we were

is a point I emphasized before we were

is a point I emphasized before we were very powerful and we thought we could

very powerful and we thought we could

very powerful and we thought we could shove it down their throat so so it's a

shove it down their throat so so it's a

shove it down their throat so so it's a combination of those factors that led us

combination of those factors that led us

combination of those factors that led us to pursue what I think was ultimately uh

to pursue what I think was ultimately uh

to pursue what I think was ultimately uh a foolish

a foolish

a foolish policy we've talked about how Wars get

policy we've talked about how Wars get

policy we've talked about how Wars get started how do you hope the war in

started how do you hope the war in

started how do you hope the war in Ukraine ends what are the ways to end

Ukraine ends what are the ways to end

Ukraine ends what are the ways to end this war what are the ways to achieve

this war what are the ways to achieve

this war what are the ways to achieve peace there to uh end the

peace there to uh end the

peace there to uh end the the I would say senseless

the I would say senseless

the I would say senseless death of young men as always happens in

death of young men as always happens in

death of young men as always happens in War I I'm sad to say I don't have a good

War I I'm sad to say I don't have a good

War I I'm sad to say I don't have a good answer to that um I I don't think

answer to that um I I don't think

answer to that um I I don't think there's any real Prospect of a

there's any real Prospect of a

there's any real Prospect of a meaningful peace agreement I think it's

meaningful peace agreement I think it's

meaningful peace agreement I think it's almost

almost

almost impossible uh I I think the best you can

impossible uh I I think the best you can

impossible uh I I think the best you can hope for uh at this point is it's some

hope for uh at this point is it's some

hope for uh at this point is it's some some point the shooting stops you have a

some point the shooting stops you have a

some point the shooting stops you have a ceasefire and then you have a frozen

ceasefire and then you have a frozen

ceasefire and then you have a frozen conflict uh and that Frozen conflict uh

conflict uh and that Frozen conflict uh

conflict uh and that Frozen conflict uh will not be highly stable uh and uh the

will not be highly stable uh and uh the

will not be highly stable uh and uh the U ukrainians and the West will do

U ukrainians and the West will do

U ukrainians and the West will do everything they can to weaken Russia's

everything they can to weaken Russia's

everything they can to weaken Russia's position uh and the Russians will go to

position uh and the Russians will go to

position uh and the Russians will go to Great Lengths to not only damage that

Great Lengths to not only damage that

Great Lengths to not only damage that dysfunctional rum state that Ukraine

dysfunctional rum state that Ukraine

dysfunctional rum state that Ukraine becomes but the Russians will go to

becomes but the Russians will go to

becomes but the Russians will go to Great Lengths to so dissension within

Great Lengths to so dissension within

Great Lengths to so dissension within the alliance and uh and that includes in

the alliance and uh and that includes in

the alliance and uh and that includes in terms of transatlantic relations so

terms of transatlantic relations so

terms of transatlantic relations so you'll have this

you'll have this

you'll have this continuing security competition between

continuing security competition between

continuing security competition between Russia on one side and Ukraine and the

Russia on one side and Ukraine and the

Russia on one side and Ukraine and the West on the other even when you get a

West on the other even when you get a

West on the other even when you get a frozen

frozen

frozen peace uh and um or you get a frozen

peace uh and um or you get a frozen

peace uh and um or you get a frozen conflict and uh and and and the

conflict and uh and and and the

conflict and uh and and and the potential for escalation there will be

potential for escalation there will be

potential for escalation there will be great uh so I think this is a disaster

great uh so I think this is a disaster

great uh so I think this is a disaster that's a a very realist perspective let

that's a a very realist perspective let

that's a a very realist perspective let me ask you sort of a the The Human Side

me ask you sort of a the The Human Side

me ask you sort of a the The Human Side of it do you think there's some power to

of it do you think there's some power to

of it do you think there's some power to leader sitting down having a

leader sitting down having a

leader sitting down having a conversation man to man leader to leader

conversation man to man leader to leader

conversation man to man leader to leader about this there's there there is just a

about this there's there there is just a

about this there's there there is just a lot of death

lot of death

lot of death happening it seems that from an economic

happening it seems that from an economic

happening it seems that from an economic perspective from a historic perspec from

perspective from a historic perspec from

perspective from a historic perspec from a human perspective both nations are

a human perspective both nations are

a human perspective both nations are losing is is it possible for Vladimir

losing is is it possible for Vladimir

losing is is it possible for Vladimir zalinski and and Vladimir Putin to sit

zalinski and and Vladimir Putin to sit

zalinski and and Vladimir Putin to sit down and talk and

down and talk and

down and talk and to uh figure out a way where uh the

to uh figure out a way where uh the

to uh figure out a way where uh the security concerns are addressed and both

security concerns are addressed and both

security concerns are addressed and both Nations can um minimize the amount of

Nations can um minimize the amount of

Nations can um minimize the amount of suffering that's happening and and and

suffering that's happening and and and

suffering that's happening and and and create a a path towards future

create a a path towards future

create a a path towards future flourishing I think the answer is no

flourishing I think the answer is no

flourishing I think the answer is no even with uh United States in d three

even with uh United States in d three

even with uh United States in d three people in the room well I think you if

people in the room well I think you if

people in the room well I think you if the United States is involved the answer

the United States is involved the answer

the United States is involved the answer is definitely no you have to get the

is definitely no you have to get the

is definitely no you have to get the Americans out uh and then I I think if

Americans out uh and then I I think if

Americans out uh and then I I think if you have zinski and Putin talking you

you have zinski and Putin talking you

you have zinski and Putin talking you know you have a sliver of a chance there

know you have a sliver of a chance there

know you have a sliver of a chance there the Americans

the Americans

the Americans are a real problem look let's go back to

are a real problem look let's go back to

are a real problem look let's go back to what happens right after the war starts

what happens right after the war starts

what happens right after the war starts okay as I said before this is we're

okay as I said before this is we're

okay as I said before this is we're talking March early April of 2022 the

talking March early April of 2022 the

talking March early April of 2022 the the war starts on February 24th

the war starts on February 24th

the war starts on February 24th 2022 and as I said to you uh the two

2022 and as I said to you uh the two

2022 and as I said to you uh the two sides were negotiating in Aon buul and

sides were negotiating in Aon buul and

sides were negotiating in Aon buul and they were also uh negotiating through

they were also uh negotiating through

they were also uh negotiating through Neftali Bennett and the Bennett track

Neftali Bennett and the Bennett track

Neftali Bennett and the Bennett track and the Turkish track were operating

and the Turkish track were operating

and the Turkish track were operating together I mean they were not at Cross

together I mean they were not at Cross

together I mean they were not at Cross purposes at

purposes at

purposes at all what

all what

all what happened Bennett tells the story very

happened Bennett tells the story very

happened Bennett tells the story very clearly that they had made significant

clearly that they had made significant

clearly that they had made significant progress in reaching an agreement this

progress in reaching an agreement this

progress in reaching an agreement this is zalinski on one side and Putin on the

is zalinski on one side and Putin on the

is zalinski on one side and Putin on the other Bennett is talking in person to

other Bennett is talking in person to

other Bennett is talking in person to both Putin and uh

both Putin and uh

both Putin and uh zalinski and what happens to produce

zalinski and what happens to produce

zalinski and what happens to produce failure the answer is the United States

failure the answer is the United States

failure the answer is the United States and Britain get involved and tells ziny

and Britain get involved and tells ziny

and Britain get involved and tells ziny to walk they tell zalinsky to walk if

to walk they tell zalinsky to walk if

to walk they tell zalinsky to walk if they had come in and encouraged zinski

they had come in and encouraged zinski

they had come in and encouraged zinski to try to figure out a way with Putin to

to try to figure out a way with Putin to

to try to figure out a way with Putin to shut this one down and worked with

shut this one down and worked with

shut this one down and worked with Bennett and worked with

Bennett and worked with

Bennett and worked with erdogan we might have been able to shut

erdogan we might have been able to shut

erdogan we might have been able to shut the war down then but it was the United

the war down then but it was the United

the war down then but it was the United States well let me sort of uh push back

States well let me sort of uh push back

States well let me sort of uh push back on that you're you're you're correct but

on that you're you're you're correct but

on that you're you're you're correct but so United States paints this like um

so United States paints this like um

so United States paints this like um picture that everybody's aligned so I

picture that everybody's aligned so I

picture that everybody's aligned so I maybe you can correct me but I believe

maybe you can correct me but I believe

maybe you can correct me but I believe in the power of individuals especially

in the power of individuals especially

in the power of individuals especially individual leaders again whether it's

individual leaders again whether it's

individual leaders again whether it's Biden or Trump or whoever goes into a

Biden or Trump or whoever goes into a

Biden or Trump or whoever goes into a room and says in a way that's convincing

room and says in a way that's convincing

room and says in a way that's convincing that no more NATO

that no more NATO

that no more NATO expansion and actually just on a basic

expansion and actually just on a basic

expansion and actually just on a basic human

human

human level ask the question of why are we

level ask the question of why are we

level ask the question of why are we doing all this senseless

doing all this senseless

doing all this senseless killing and look at the interest of one

killing and look at the interest of one

killing and look at the interest of one Russia look at the interest of the other

Russia look at the interest of the other

Russia look at the interest of the other Ukraine their interest are pretty simple

Ukraine their interest are pretty simple

Ukraine their interest are pretty simple and say the United States is going to

and say the United States is going to

and say the United States is going to stay out of this we're not going to

stay out of this we're not going to

stay out of this we're not going to expand NATO and say all that in a way

expand NATO and say all that in a way

expand NATO and say all that in a way that's convincing which is NATO

that's convincing which is NATO

that's convincing which is NATO expansion is silly at this point china

expansion is silly at this point china

expansion is silly at this point china is the big threat we're not going to do

is the big threat we're not going to do

is the big threat we're not going to do this kind of uh conflict escalation with

this kind of uh conflict escalation with

this kind of uh conflict escalation with Russia the Cold War is Over let's let's

Russia the Cold War is Over let's let's

Russia the Cold War is Over let's let's uh normalize relations well let me just

uh normalize relations well let me just

uh normalize relations well let me just embellish your argument okay thank

embellish your argument okay thank

embellish your argument okay thank you did I need it if we say there's a

you did I need it if we say there's a

you did I need it if we say there's a sliver of a chance that you can do this

sliver of a chance that you can do this

sliver of a chance that you can do this and I do think there is a sliver of a

and I do think there is a sliver of a

and I do think there is a sliver of a chance let me just embellish your point

chance let me just embellish your point

chance let me just embellish your point Thank you need all the help I can get

Thank you need all the help I can get

Thank you need all the help I can get two things have to be done here in my

two things have to be done here in my

two things have to be done here in my opinion one is uh Ukraine has to become

opinion one is uh Ukraine has to become

opinion one is uh Ukraine has to become neutral and it has to completely sever

neutral and it has to completely sever

neutral and it has to completely sever all security ties with the West

all security ties with the West

all security ties with the West right it's not like

right it's not like

right it's not like uh you can say we're not going to expand

uh you can say we're not going to expand

uh you can say we're not going to expand NATO to include Ukraine but we're going

NATO to include Ukraine but we're going

NATO to include Ukraine but we're going to continue to have some loose security

to continue to have some loose security

to continue to have some loose security arrangement with Ukraine none of that

arrangement with Ukraine none of that

arrangement with Ukraine none of that has to be completely severed Ukraine has

has to be completely severed Ukraine has

has to be completely severed Ukraine has to be on its own okay and number two

to be on its own okay and number two

to be on its own okay and number two Ukraine has to accept the fact that the

Ukraine has to accept the fact that the

Ukraine has to accept the fact that the Russians are going to keep the four

Russians are going to keep the four

Russians are going to keep the four oblas that they've now annexed and

oblas that they've now annexed and

oblas that they've now annexed and Crimea right the Russians are not going

Crimea right the Russians are not going

Crimea right the Russians are not going to give them back and what you really

to give them back and what you really

to give them back and what you really want to do if you're zalinski or who's

want to do if you're zalinski or who's

want to do if you're zalinski or who's ever running Ukraine in this scenario

ever running Ukraine in this scenario

ever running Ukraine in this scenario that we're positing is you want to make

that we're positing is you want to make

that we're positing is you want to make sure the Russians don't take another

sure the Russians don't take another

sure the Russians don't take another four oblas to include arke and Odessa

four oblas to include arke and Odessa

four oblas to include arke and Odessa right if I'm playing Putin's hand and

right if I'm playing Putin's hand and

right if I'm playing Putin's hand and this war goes on I'm thinking about

this war goes on I'm thinking about

this war goes on I'm thinking about taking four more oblas I I want to take

taking four more oblas I I want to take

taking four more oblas I I want to take about 43% of Ukraine and an exit to

about 43% of Ukraine and an exit to

about 43% of Ukraine and an exit to Russia right and I certainly want Odessa

Russia right and I certainly want Odessa

Russia right and I certainly want Odessa and I certainly want harke and I I want

and I certainly want harke and I I want

and I certainly want harke and I I want the two ooss in between as well right

the two ooss in between as well right

the two ooss in between as well right literally or as uh leverage in

literally or as uh leverage in

literally or as uh leverage in negotiation no Ukraine neutrality I want

negotiation no Ukraine neutrality I want

negotiation no Ukraine neutrality I want them literally uh I want to conquer them

them literally uh I want to conquer them

them literally uh I want to conquer them literally uh but my point to you is if

literally uh but my point to you is if

literally uh but my point to you is if we can begin to talk about cutting a

we can begin to talk about cutting a

we can begin to talk about cutting a deal now you may be able to head that

deal now you may be able to head that

deal now you may be able to head that kind of aggression off at the pass in

kind of aggression off at the pass in

kind of aggression off at the pass in other words you may be able to limit

other words you may be able to limit

other words you may be able to limit Putin and Russia to annexing the four

Putin and Russia to annexing the four

Putin and Russia to annexing the four oblas that they've now annexed plus

oblas that they've now annexed plus

oblas that they've now annexed plus Crimea that's the best I think you can

Crimea that's the best I think you can

Crimea that's the best I think you can hope for but the point is you have to

hope for but the point is you have to

hope for but the point is you have to get the ukrainians to accept that you

get the ukrainians to accept that you

get the ukrainians to accept that you have to get the ukrainians to accept

have to get the ukrainians to accept

have to get the ukrainians to accept becoming a truly neutral State and

becoming a truly neutral State and

becoming a truly neutral State and conceding that the Russians keep a big

conceding that the Russians keep a big

conceding that the Russians keep a big chunk of territory it's about 23% of

chunk of territory it's about 23% of

chunk of territory it's about 23% of ukra Ian territory that they've

ukra Ian territory that they've

ukra Ian territory that they've annexed and I find it hard to imagine

annexed and I find it hard to imagine

annexed and I find it hard to imagine any Ukrainian leader agreeing to that

any Ukrainian leader agreeing to that

any Ukrainian leader agreeing to that well there there there could be more

well there there there could be more

well there there there could be more Nuance things like no military

Nuance things like no military

Nuance things like no military involvement between the United States

involvement between the United States

involvement between the United States and Ukraine but economic involvement

and Ukraine but economic involvement

and Ukraine but economic involvement sort of uh financial

sort of uh financial

sort of uh financial support So normalizing economic

support So normalizing economic

support So normalizing economic relationships with Ukraine with Russia I

relationships with Ukraine with Russia I

relationships with Ukraine with Russia I I think you could probably get away with

I think you could probably get away with

I think you could probably get away with that I I think the the the tricky

that I I think the the the tricky

that I I think the the the tricky question there that you would have

question there that you would have

question there that you would have answer is what about EU expansion right

answer is what about EU expansion right

answer is what about EU expansion right and I think EU expansion is probably a

and I think EU expansion is probably a

and I think EU expansion is probably a no no for the Russians because most

no no for the Russians because most

no no for the Russians because most people don't recognize this but there is

people don't recognize this but there is

people don't recognize this but there is a military Dimension built into EU

a military Dimension built into EU

a military Dimension built into EU expansion it's not purely an

expansion it's not purely an

expansion it's not purely an economic uh Alliance uh or relationship

economic uh Alliance uh or relationship

economic uh Alliance uh or relationship or institution whatever word you want to

or institution whatever word you want to

or institution whatever word you want to use there's a military Dimension to that

use there's a military Dimension to that

use there's a military Dimension to that and in the runup to the war War uh

and in the runup to the war War uh

and in the runup to the war War uh actually in the runup to the 2014 crisis

actually in the runup to the 2014 crisis

actually in the runup to the 2014 crisis when it first broke out uh the Russians

when it first broke out uh the Russians

when it first broke out uh the Russians made it clear they saw EU expansion as a

made it clear they saw EU expansion as a

made it clear they saw EU expansion as a stalking horse for NATO expansion so EU

stalking horse for NATO expansion so EU

stalking horse for NATO expansion so EU expansion is tricky but I I think your

expansion is tricky but I I think your

expansion is tricky but I I think your point of close economic relations

point of close economic relations

point of close economic relations between uh or healthy economic relations

between uh or healthy economic relations

between uh or healthy economic relations to use a better term between Ukraine and

to use a better term between Ukraine and

to use a better term between Ukraine and the West is possible I I I think the

the West is possible I I I think the

the West is possible I I I think the Russians have a vested interest in if if

Russians have a vested interest in if if

Russians have a vested interest in if if it's a neutral Ukraine they have a

it's a neutral Ukraine they have a

it's a neutral Ukraine they have a vested interest in that Ukraine

vested interest in that Ukraine

vested interest in that Ukraine flourishing but that then brings us back

flourishing but that then brings us back

flourishing but that then brings us back to the territorial issue right well so

to the territorial issue right well so

to the territorial issue right well so do you believe it's possible for

do you believe it's possible for

do you believe it's possible for individual human relations to counteract

individual human relations to counteract

individual human relations to counteract the structural forces that you talk

the structural forces that you talk

the structural forces that you talk about so meaning the

about so meaning the

about so meaning the leaders being able to pick up the phone

leaders being able to pick up the phone

leaders being able to pick up the phone and make agreements that are good for

and make agreements that are good for

and make agreements that are good for Humanity as a whole and for their

Humanity as a whole and for their

Humanity as a whole and for their individual nations in the long term I

individual nations in the long term I

individual nations in the long term I think leadership matters here

think leadership matters here

think leadership matters here uh I mean one of the real problems here

uh I mean one of the real problems here

uh I mean one of the real problems here is that there's no trust and on the

is that there's no trust and on the

is that there's no trust and on the Russian side and that has to do with the

Russian side and that has to do with the

Russian side and that has to do with the Minsk agreements um the uh uh the Minsk

Minsk agreements um the uh uh the Minsk

Minsk agreements um the uh uh the Minsk agreements uh which were designed to

agreements uh which were designed to

agreements uh which were designed to shut down the Civil

shut down the Civil

shut down the Civil War uh in eastern Ukraine in the

War uh in eastern Ukraine in the

War uh in eastern Ukraine in the donbass um really mattered to the

donbass um really mattered to the

donbass um really mattered to the Russians and there were four players

Russians and there were four players

Russians and there were four players involved in the uh uh the mince process

involved in the uh uh the mince process

involved in the uh uh the mince process uh four main players Russia and Ukraine

uh four main players Russia and Ukraine

uh four main players Russia and Ukraine of course and then Germany and

of course and then Germany and

of course and then Germany and France and uh I believe the Russians

France and uh I believe the Russians

France and uh I believe the Russians took the Minsk Accords seriously uh I

took the Minsk Accords seriously uh I

took the Minsk Accords seriously uh I believe Putin took them very seriously

believe Putin took them very seriously

believe Putin took them very seriously he wanted to shut down that

he wanted to shut down that

he wanted to shut down that conflict um and uh Angela Merkel franois

conflict um and uh Angela Merkel franois

conflict um and uh Angela Merkel franois Holland he was the French leader and

Holland he was the French leader and

Holland he was the French leader and penko who was the Ukrainian leader those

penko who was the Ukrainian leader those

penko who was the Ukrainian leader those were the three key players besides Putin

were the three key players besides Putin

were the three key players besides Putin again Holan from France Merkel from

again Holan from France Merkel from

again Holan from France Merkel from Germany and penko from Ukraine have all

Germany and penko from Ukraine have all

Germany and penko from Ukraine have all explicitly said they were not seriously

explicitly said they were not seriously

explicitly said they were not seriously interested in reaching an agreement in

interested in reaching an agreement in

interested in reaching an agreement in all of the discussions with Putin they

all of the discussions with Putin they

all of the discussions with Putin they were bamboozling him they were trying to

were bamboozling him they were trying to

were bamboozling him they were trying to trick him so that they would buy time to

trick him so that they would buy time to

trick him so that they would buy time to build up Ukraine's military uh Putin is

build up Ukraine's military uh Putin is

build up Ukraine's military uh Putin is profoundly upset about these admissions

profoundly upset about these admissions

profoundly upset about these admissions by these three leaders he believes he

by these three leaders he believes he

by these three leaders he believes he was fooled into thinking that mince

was fooled into thinking that mince

was fooled into thinking that mince could work he believes that he

could work he believes that he

could work he believes that he negotiated in good faith and they did

negotiated in good faith and they did

negotiated in good faith and they did not and he believes that the level of

not and he believes that the level of

not and he believes that the level of trust now between Russia uh and the West

trust now between Russia uh and the West

trust now between Russia uh and the West is virtually zero as a result of this

is virtually zero as a result of this

is virtually zero as a result of this experience over Minsk I only bring this

experience over Minsk I only bring this

experience over Minsk I only bring this up because it cuts against your argument

up because it cuts against your argument

up because it cuts against your argument that leaders could pick up the phone and

that leaders could pick up the phone and

that leaders could pick up the phone and talk to each other and trust each other

talk to each other and trust each other

talk to each other and trust each other at least somewhat uh to work out a

at least somewhat uh to work out a

at least somewhat uh to work out a meaningful deal if you're Putin at this

meaningful deal if you're Putin at this

meaningful deal if you're Putin at this point in time trusting the West is not

point in time trusting the West is not

point in time trusting the West is not an idea it's going to be very attractive

an idea it's going to be very attractive

an idea it's going to be very attractive at all in fact you're going to distrust

at all in fact you're going to distrust

at all in fact you're going to distrust anything they say yeah distrust anything

anything they say yeah distrust anything

anything they say yeah distrust anything the West say but there is individual

the West say but there is individual

the West say but there is individual humans the way human nature works is

humans the way human nature works is

humans the way human nature works is when you sit in the cross from a person

when you sit in the cross from a person

when you sit in the cross from a person you can trust a human being while still

you can trust a human being while still

you can trust a human being while still distrusting the West I mean I I I

distrusting the West I mean I I I

distrusting the West I mean I I I believe in the power of that I I think

believe in the power of that I I think

believe in the power of that I I think with the right leaders you can sit down

with the right leaders you can sit down

with the right leaders you can sit down and talk like over override the general

and talk like over override the general

and talk like over override the general structural distrust of the West and say

structural distrust of the West and say

structural distrust of the West and say you know what I like this guy or gal

you know what I like this guy or gal

you know what I like this guy or gal whatever I do hope zilinski and Putin

whatever I do hope zilinski and Putin

whatever I do hope zilinski and Putin sit down together and talk have multiple

sit down together and talk have multiple

sit down together and talk have multiple talks just remember they were doing that

talks just remember they were doing that

talks just remember they were doing that in March and the Americans came in and

in March and the Americans came in and

in March and the Americans came in and the British came in yeah and they

the British came in yeah and they

the British came in yeah and they scotched a potential

scotched a potential

scotched a potential deal

deal

deal well uh the other beautiful thing about

well uh the other beautiful thing about

well uh the other beautiful thing about human nature there's forgiveness and

human nature there's forgiveness and

human nature there's forgiveness and there's uh trying again when you're the

there's uh trying again when you're the

there's uh trying again when you're the leader of a country in an anarchic

leader of a country in an anarchic

leader of a country in an anarchic system you have to be very careful not

system you have to be very careful not

system you have to be very careful not to let uh your trust in a foreign leader

to let uh your trust in a foreign leader

to let uh your trust in a foreign leader take you too far because if that foreign

take you too far because if that foreign

take you too far because if that foreign leader betrays you or betrays your trust

leader betrays you or betrays your trust

leader betrays you or betrays your trust and stabs you in the back you could die

and stabs you in the back you could die

and stabs you in the back you could die and again you want to remember that the

and again you want to remember that the

and again you want to remember that the principal responsibility of any leader I

principal responsibility of any leader I

principal responsibility of any leader I don't care what country it is is to to

don't care what country it is is to to

don't care what country it is is to to ensure the survival of their state and

ensure the survival of their state and

ensure the survival of their state and that means that you know trust is only

that means that you know trust is only

that means that you know trust is only going to buy you so much and when you've

going to buy you so much and when you've

going to buy you so much and when you've already

already

already betrayed the trust of a leader uh you

betrayed the trust of a leader uh you

betrayed the trust of a leader uh you really are not going to be able to rely

really are not going to be able to rely

really are not going to be able to rely on trust very much to help you moving

on trust very much to help you moving

on trust very much to help you moving forward now you disagree with that I

forward now you disagree with that I

forward now you disagree with that I hope you're right and if they can shut

hope you're right and if they can shut

hope you're right and if they can shut down the Ukraine Russia War uh it would

down the Ukraine Russia War uh it would

down the Ukraine Russia War uh it would be wonderful if if I'm proved dead wrong

be wonderful if if I'm proved dead wrong

be wonderful if if I'm proved dead wrong uh that would be wonderful news uh

uh that would be wonderful news uh

uh that would be wonderful news uh my my prediction that this war is going

my my prediction that this war is going

my my prediction that this war is going to go on for a long time and

to go on for a long time and

to go on for a long time and uh and end in an ugly way is a

uh and end in an ugly way is a

uh and end in an ugly way is a prediction that I don't like it all uh

prediction that I don't like it all uh

prediction that I don't like it all uh so I hope I'm wrong you wrote that many

so I hope I'm wrong you wrote that many

so I hope I'm wrong you wrote that many in the west believe that the best hope

in the west believe that the best hope

in the west believe that the best hope for ending the Ukraine Wars to remove

for ending the Ukraine Wars to remove

for ending the Ukraine Wars to remove Vladimir Putin from power but you argue

Vladimir Putin from power but you argue

Vladimir Putin from power but you argue that uh this is is in the

that uh this is is in the

that uh this is is in the case can you explain well a lot of

case can you explain well a lot of

case can you explain well a lot of people thought when uh they were having

people thought when uh they were having

people thought when uh they were having all that trouble the Russians were

all that trouble the Russians were

all that trouble the Russians were having all that trouble with progan and

having all that trouble with progan and

having all that trouble with progan and the Vagner group that Putin was

the Vagner group that Putin was

the Vagner group that Putin was vulnerable and was likely to be

vulnerable and was likely to be

vulnerable and was likely to be overthrown and what would happen is uh a

overthrown and what would happen is uh a

overthrown and what would happen is uh a peaceloving leader would replace Putin

peaceloving leader would replace Putin

peaceloving leader would replace Putin uh I made two points at the time and I

uh I made two points at the time and I

uh I made two points at the time and I would make those same two points now

would make those same two points now

would make those same two points now number one he's not

number one he's not

number one he's not likely to be

likely to be

likely to be overthrown he was not likely then to be

overthrown he was not likely then to be

overthrown he was not likely then to be overthrown uh and I think you know as

overthrown uh and I think you know as

overthrown uh and I think you know as long as his health holds up I think he

long as his health holds up I think he

long as his health holds up I think he will remain in power my second point is

will remain in power my second point is

will remain in power my second point is if he doesn't remain in power and he's

if he doesn't remain in power and he's

if he doesn't remain in power and he's replaced I would bet a lot of money that

replaced I would bet a lot of money that

replaced I would bet a lot of money that his replacement will be more hawkish and

his replacement will be more hawkish and

his replacement will be more hawkish and more Hardline than Putin is uh I

more Hardline than Putin is uh I

more Hardline than Putin is uh I actually think one could argue that

actually think one could argue that

actually think one could argue that Putin was too trusting of the West

Putin was too trusting of the West

Putin was too trusting of the West before the war

before the war

before the war started uh and number two I think one

started uh and number two I think one

started uh and number two I think one could argue that he has not waged the

could argue that he has not waged the

could argue that he has not waged the war against Ukraine as vigorously as one

war against Ukraine as vigorously as one

war against Ukraine as vigorously as one might have

might have

might have expected uh he was slow to mobilize the

expected uh he was slow to mobilize the

expected uh he was slow to mobilize the nation for War uh and he has pursued a

nation for War uh and he has pursued a

nation for War uh and he has pursued a limited war in all sorts of ways the

limited war in all sorts of ways the

limited war in all sorts of ways the Israelis for example have killed more

Israelis for example have killed more

Israelis for example have killed more civilians in Gaza in one month than the

civilians in Gaza in one month than the

civilians in Gaza in one month than the Russians have killed over 18 months in

Russians have killed over 18 months in

Russians have killed over 18 months in Ukraine the idea that Vladimir Putin is

Ukraine the idea that Vladimir Putin is

Ukraine the idea that Vladimir Putin is waging a punishment campaign and killing

waging a punishment campaign and killing

waging a punishment campaign and killing on purpose large numbers of civilians

on purpose large numbers of civilians

on purpose large numbers of civilians it's simply not true uh all of this is

it's simply not true uh all of this is

it's simply not true uh all of this is to say that uh I would imagine that if

to say that uh I would imagine that if

to say that uh I would imagine that if Putin leaves office and someone else

Putin leaves office and someone else

Putin leaves office and someone else comes in to replace him that someone

comes in to replace him that someone

comes in to replace him that someone else will be at least if not more

else will be at least if not more

else will be at least if not more Hardline than him in terms of waging the

Hardline than him in terms of waging the

Hardline than him in terms of waging the war and certainly will not trust the

war and certainly will not trust the

war and certainly will not trust the West any more than he

West any more than he

West any more than he has by way of advice let me ask you if I

has by way of advice let me ask you if I

has by way of advice let me ask you if I were to have a conversation interview

were to have a conversation interview

were to have a conversation interview Vladimir Putin and zalinski individually

Vladimir Putin and zalinski individually

Vladimir Putin and zalinski individually what should I ask them if you me and

what should I ask them if you me and

what should I ask them if you me and Vladimir Putin are having a chat what

Vladimir Putin are having a chat what

Vladimir Putin are having a chat what are

are

are good ideas to explore what are good

good ideas to explore what are good

good ideas to explore what are good questions to ask what are good things to

questions to ask what are good things to

questions to ask what are good things to say onor off the mic once again that

say onor off the mic once again that

say onor off the mic once again that could

could

could potentially even slightly lessen the

potentially even slightly lessen the

potentially even slightly lessen the Mount of suffering in the world caused

Mount of suffering in the world caused

Mount of suffering in the world caused by this war oh I think if you get an

by this war oh I think if you get an

by this war oh I think if you get an interview with Vladimir Putin there's

interview with Vladimir Putin there's

interview with Vladimir Putin there's just all sorts of questions you could

just all sorts of questions you could

just all sorts of questions you could ask him and my sense is that Putin is a

ask him and my sense is that Putin is a

ask him and my sense is that Putin is a straight shooter uh he's also very

straight shooter uh he's also very

straight shooter uh he's also very knowledgeable about history and he has

knowledgeable about history and he has

knowledgeable about history and he has simple theories in his head about how

simple theories in his head about how

simple theories in his head about how the world works and I think he would

the world works and I think he would

the world works and I think he would level with you and all you would have to

level with you and all you would have to

level with you and all you would have to do is just you know figure out what all

do is just you know figure out what all

do is just you know figure out what all the right questions are and that would

the right questions are and that would

the right questions are and that would not be hard to do right uh you know you

not be hard to do right uh you know you

not be hard to do right uh you know you could ask him why was he so foolish this

could ask him why was he so foolish this

could ask him why was he so foolish this is for for example why was he so foolish

is for for example why was he so foolish

is for for example why was he so foolish is to uh uh trust uh poreno Holland and

is to uh uh trust uh poreno Holland and

is to uh uh trust uh poreno Holland and Merkel uh in the Minsk

Merkel uh in the Minsk

Merkel uh in the Minsk Accords uh you know why after his famous

Accords uh you know why after his famous

Accords uh you know why after his famous talk at munic in 2007 where he made it

talk at munic in 2007 where he made it

talk at munic in 2007 where he made it clear that he was so unhappy with the

clear that he was so unhappy with the

clear that he was so unhappy with the West uh did he continue uh to you know

West uh did he continue uh to you know

West uh did he continue uh to you know in a very important way trust the West

in a very important way trust the West

in a very important way trust the West why didn't he mobilize uh the Russian

why didn't he mobilize uh the Russian

why didn't he mobilize uh the Russian military before late September

military before late September

military before late September 2022 uh you know once the negotiations

2022 uh you know once the negotiations

2022 uh you know once the negotiations that we were talking about before uh

that we were talking about before uh

that we were talking about before uh involving

involving

involving istanbull uh and uh Naf Tali Ben and

istanbull uh and uh Naf Tali Ben and

istanbull uh and uh Naf Tali Ben and once they broke down you know why didn't

once they broke down you know why didn't

once they broke down you know why didn't he immediately mobilize more of the

he immediately mobilize more of the

he immediately mobilize more of the Russian population to fight the war just

Russian population to fight the war just

Russian population to fight the war just all sorts of questions like that and

all sorts of questions like that and

all sorts of questions like that and then you could ask them questions about

then you could ask them questions about

then you could ask them questions about you know where uh he sees this one

you know where uh he sees this one

you know where uh he sees this one headed uh what's the best strategy for

headed uh what's the best strategy for

headed uh what's the best strategy for Russia uh if the ukrainians will not

Russia uh if the ukrainians will not

Russia uh if the ukrainians will not agree to neutrality right you know

agree to neutrality right you know

agree to neutrality right you know people like John mirer say you'll

people like John mirer say you'll

people like John mirer say you'll probably take uh close to half of

probably take uh close to half of

probably take uh close to half of Ukraine is that true does it make sense

Ukraine is that true does it make sense

Ukraine is that true does it make sense to take

to take

to take Odessa and John mimer also has questions

Odessa and John mimer also has questions

Odessa and John mimer also has questions about

about

about China your future relationships with

China your future relationships with

China your future relationships with China yeah I mean one really important

China yeah I mean one really important

China yeah I mean one really important question that I would ask him is if the

question that I would ask him is if the

question that I would ask him is if the United States had basically not driven

United States had basically not driven

United States had basically not driven you into the arms of the Chinese if

you into the arms of the Chinese if

you into the arms of the Chinese if there had been no war over Ukraine and

there had been no war over Ukraine and

there had been no war over Ukraine and the United States had and its European

the United States had and its European

the United States had and its European allies had gone to considerable length

allies had gone to considerable length

allies had gone to considerable length to create some sort of security

to create some sort of security

to create some sort of security architecture in Europe uh that resulted

architecture in Europe uh that resulted

architecture in Europe uh that resulted in you Vladimir Putin having good

in you Vladimir Putin having good

in you Vladimir Putin having good relations with Ukraine what would your

relations with Ukraine what would your

relations with Ukraine what would your relations with China be uh

relations with China be uh

relations with China be uh and uh you know how would you think

and uh you know how would you think

and uh you know how would you think about that uh so there there are just

about that uh so there there are just

about that uh so there there are just plenty of questions uh you could ask

plenty of questions uh you could ask

plenty of questions uh you could ask him well hope Burns Eternal in my heart

him well hope Burns Eternal in my heart

him well hope Burns Eternal in my heart I think probably in Putin's heart and

I think probably in Putin's heart and

I think probably in Putin's heart and zelinsky's heart I

zelinsky's heart I

zelinsky's heart I hope cuz hope is uh the leap of trust

hope cuz hope is uh the leap of trust

hope cuz hope is uh the leap of trust that we've talked about I think is

that we've talked about I think is

that we've talked about I think is necessary for deescalation and for peace

necessary for deescalation and for peace

necessary for deescalation and for peace well you realize I have from the

well you realize I have from the

well you realize I have from the beginning argued

beginning argued

beginning argued for different policies that were all

for different policies that were all

for different policies that were all designed to prevent this war from ever

designed to prevent this war from ever

designed to prevent this war from ever happening yes I don't know if you know

happening yes I don't know if you know

happening yes I don't know if you know this but in 1993 I argued that Ukraine

this but in 1993 I argued that Ukraine

this but in 1993 I argued that Ukraine should keep its nuclear weapons I was

should keep its nuclear weapons I was

should keep its nuclear weapons I was probably the only person in the west who

probably the only person in the west who

probably the only person in the west who made that argument and my argument in

made that argument and my argument in

made that argument and my argument in 1993 this is in foreign affairs was that

1993 this is in foreign affairs was that

1993 this is in foreign affairs was that there may come the day when Russia

there may come the day when Russia

there may come the day when Russia thinks about invading Ukraine and should

thinks about invading Ukraine and should

thinks about invading Ukraine and should that day come it would be very helpful

that day come it would be very helpful

that day come it would be very helpful for prev venting War if Ukraine had

for prev venting War if Ukraine had

for prev venting War if Ukraine had nuclear weapons so military might is

nuclear weapons so military might is

nuclear weapons so military might is essential for maintaining a balance of

essential for maintaining a balance of

essential for maintaining a balance of power and peace well if you're

power and peace well if you're

power and peace well if you're interested in deterring an adversary if

interested in deterring an adversary if

interested in deterring an adversary if I'm worried about you coming after me

I'm worried about you coming after me

I'm worried about you coming after me the best way to deter you is to have

the best way to deter you is to have

the best way to deter you is to have military might and if you're Russia and

military might and if you're Russia and

military might and if you're Russia and I'm Ukraine I'm far weaker than you yeah

I'm Ukraine I'm far weaker than you yeah

I'm Ukraine I'm far weaker than you yeah right and having a nuclear deterrent

right and having a nuclear deterrent

right and having a nuclear deterrent would be very effective at convincing

would be very effective at convincing

would be very effective at convincing you not to attack me because if you

you not to attack me because if you

you not to attack me because if you attack me you're threatening my survival

attack me you're threatening my survival

attack me you're threatening my survival and that's the one circumstance where it

and that's the one circumstance where it

and that's the one circumstance where it is

is

is likely that I would use nuclear weapons

likely that I would use nuclear weapons

likely that I would use nuclear weapons to defend myself and given the

to defend myself and given the

to defend myself and given the consequences of nuclear use you would be

consequences of nuclear use you would be

consequences of nuclear use you would be reluctant in the extreme to attack me so

reluctant in the extreme to attack me so

reluctant in the extreme to attack me so that's why I argued in 93 that if

that's why I argued in 93 that if

that's why I argued in 93 that if Ukraine kept its nuclear weapons that

Ukraine kept its nuclear weapons that

Ukraine kept its nuclear weapons that made War down the road much less likely

made War down the road much less likely

made War down the road much less likely and I believe I was correct and in fact

and I believe I was correct and in fact

and I believe I was correct and in fact Bill Clinton who played the key role in

Bill Clinton who played the key role in

Bill Clinton who played the key role in forcing Ukraine to give up its nuclear

forcing Ukraine to give up its nuclear

forcing Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons now says he has said it publicly

weapons now says he has said it publicly

weapons now says he has said it publicly you can find it on YouTube that he made

you can find it on YouTube that he made

you can find it on YouTube that he made a mistake doing that furthermore I

a mistake doing that furthermore I

a mistake doing that furthermore I argued in

argued in

argued in 2014 that it made eminently good sense

2014 that it made eminently good sense

2014 that it made eminently good sense not to continue to push to bring Ukraine

not to continue to push to bring Ukraine

not to continue to push to bring Ukraine into NATO because the end result is that

into NATO because the end result is that

into NATO because the end result is that Ukraine would be destroyed and Ukraine

Ukraine would be destroyed and Ukraine

Ukraine would be destroyed and Ukraine is being destroyed so I was deeply

is being destroyed so I was deeply

is being destroyed so I was deeply interested at the time in making sure

interested at the time in making sure

interested at the time in making sure that that didn't happen for the good of

that that didn't happen for the good of

that that didn't happen for the good of the ukrainians not to mention because

the ukrainians not to mention because

the ukrainians not to mention because stability in Europe is a net positive

stability in Europe is a net positive

stability in Europe is a net positive for almost everybody involved but people

for almost everybody involved but people

for almost everybody involved but people did not listen to me then either how do

did not listen to me then either how do

did not listen to me then either how do nuclear weapons change the calculus of

nuclear weapons change the calculus of

nuclear weapons change the calculus of offensive realism because of mutually

offensive realism because of mutually

offensive realism because of mutually assured destruction I mean it's not just

assured destruction I mean it's not just

assured destruction I mean it's not just military might it's just so

military might it's just so

military might it's just so destructive that you basically can't use

destructive that you basically can't use

destructive that you basically can't use nuclear weapons

nuclear weapons

nuclear weapons unless you want complete destruction

unless you want complete destruction

unless you want complete destruction there's no question that the presence of

there's no question that the presence of

there's no question that the presence of nuclear weapons makes it much less

nuclear weapons makes it much less

nuclear weapons makes it much less likely I'm choosing my words carefully

likely I'm choosing my words carefully

likely I'm choosing my words carefully here much less likely that a great power

here much less likely that a great power

here much less likely that a great power would aggress against another great

would aggress against another great

would aggress against another great power it doesn't take that possibility

power it doesn't take that possibility

power it doesn't take that possibility off the table but it makes it much less

off the table but it makes it much less

off the table but it makes it much less likely because of the reasons that you

likely because of the reasons that you

likely because of the reasons that you articulated uh but with regard to

articulated uh but with regard to

articulated uh but with regard to nuclear use

nuclear use

nuclear use it's an interesting question how you

it's an interesting question how you

it's an interesting question how you think about nuclear use in a mad world I

think about nuclear use in a mad world I

think about nuclear use in a mad world I mean your point that we're in a mad

mean your point that we're in a mad

mean your point that we're in a mad world is that that's mad Capital mad as

world is that that's mad Capital mad as

world is that that's mad Capital mad as well as mad small letters but let's

well as mad small letters but let's

well as mad small letters but let's stick to the capital letters we're in a

stick to the capital letters we're in a

stick to the capital letters we're in a world of mutual assured destruction uh

world of mutual assured destruction uh

world of mutual assured destruction uh there's no question that in that

there's no question that in that

there's no question that in that World um uh it's uh unlikely that

World um uh it's uh unlikely that

World um uh it's uh unlikely that nuclear weapons would be used but the

nuclear weapons would be used but the

nuclear weapons would be used but the way you use nuclear weapons in that

way you use nuclear weapons in that

way you use nuclear weapons in that world is you use them uh for

world is you use them uh for

world is you use them uh for manipulation to risk purposes

manipulation to risk purposes

manipulation to risk purposes demonstration of fact you you put both

demonstration of fact you you put both

demonstration of fact you you put both sides out on the slippery slope now what

sides out on the slippery slope now what

sides out on the slippery slope now what exactly am I saying here let me talk

exactly am I saying here let me talk

exactly am I saying here let me talk about NATO Doctrine during the Cold War

about NATO Doctrine during the Cold War

about NATO Doctrine during the Cold War we lived in a Mad World United States

we lived in a Mad World United States

we lived in a Mad World United States and Soviet Union or The warsa Pact in

and Soviet Union or The warsa Pact in

and Soviet Union or The warsa Pact in NATO both had an assured destruction

NATO both had an assured destruction

NATO both had an assured destruction capability so you had mutual assured

capability so you had mutual assured

capability so you had mutual assured destruction if the warsa pact were to

destruction if the warsa pact were to

destruction if the warsa pact were to invade Western Europe and here we're

invade Western Europe and here we're

invade Western Europe and here we're talking about West

talking about West

talking about West Germany uh and NATO was losing the war

Germany uh and NATO was losing the war

Germany uh and NATO was losing the war we said that we would use nuclear

we said that we would use nuclear

we said that we would use nuclear weapons how would we use nuclear weapons

weapons how would we use nuclear weapons

weapons how would we use nuclear weapons given that we were in a Mad World the

given that we were in a Mad World the

given that we were in a Mad World the argument was that we would use a handful

argument was that we would use a handful

argument was that we would use a handful of nuclear weapons against the warsa PCT

of nuclear weapons against the warsa PCT

of nuclear weapons against the warsa PCT not through not necessarily against

not through not necessarily against

not through not necessarily against their military forces

their military forces

their military forces could be in a remote area we would use a

could be in a remote area we would use a

could be in a remote area we would use a small number of nuclear weapons mhm to

small number of nuclear weapons mhm to

small number of nuclear weapons mhm to signal to the Soviets that we were

signal to the Soviets that we were

signal to the Soviets that we were deadly serious about putting an end to

deadly serious about putting an end to

deadly serious about putting an end to their

their

their offensive uh and that we were throwing

offensive uh and that we were throwing

offensive uh and that we were throwing both sides out on the slippery slope to

both sides out on the slippery slope to

both sides out on the slippery slope to Oblivion in other words we were

Oblivion in other words we were

Oblivion in other words we were manipulating risk and the last clear

manipulating risk and the last clear

manipulating risk and the last clear chance to avoid Armageddon rested with

chance to avoid Armageddon rested with

chance to avoid Armageddon rested with them and then we would tell them that if

them and then we would tell them that if

them and then we would tell them that if you retaliated with a handful of nuclear

you retaliated with a handful of nuclear

you retaliated with a handful of nuclear weapons and you didn't cease your

weapons and you didn't cease your

weapons and you didn't cease your offensive against West Germany we would

offensive against West Germany we would

offensive against West Germany we would launch a small another nuclear attack we

launch a small another nuclear attack we

launch a small another nuclear attack we would uh explode a handful more of

would uh explode a handful more of

would uh explode a handful more of nuclear weapons all for the purposes of

nuclear weapons all for the purposes of

nuclear weapons all for the purposes of showing you our resolve right so this is

showing you our resolve right so this is

showing you our resolve right so this is the manipulation of risk strategy in lot

the manipulation of risk strategy in lot

the manipulation of risk strategy in lot of the language I just used in

of the language I just used in

of the language I just used in describing it to you is language that

describing it to you is language that

describing it to you is language that Thomas shelling invented right now fast

Thomas shelling invented right now fast

Thomas shelling invented right now fast forward to the present if Russia were

forward to the present if Russia were

forward to the present if Russia were you losing in Ukraine that's the one

you losing in Ukraine that's the one

you losing in Ukraine that's the one scenario I think where Russia would have

scenario I think where Russia would have

scenario I think where Russia would have used nuclear weapons and the question is

used nuclear weapons and the question is

used nuclear weapons and the question is how would Russia have used nuclear

how would Russia have used nuclear

how would Russia have used nuclear weapons again we're assuming that the

weapons again we're assuming that the

weapons again we're assuming that the Russians are losing to the ukrainians I

Russians are losing to the ukrainians I

Russians are losing to the ukrainians I believe they would have pursued a

believe they would have pursued a

believe they would have pursued a manipulation risk strategy they would

manipulation risk strategy they would

manipulation risk strategy they would have used four or five 30 or4 who knows

have used four or five 30 or4 who knows

have used four or five 30 or4 who knows nuclear weapons maybe just one in a

nuclear weapons maybe just one in a

nuclear weapons maybe just one in a rural area that kills very few people

rural area that kills very few people

rural area that kills very few people yes exactly and basically that would

yes exactly and basically that would

yes exactly and basically that would spook everybody the Americans just the

spook everybody the Americans just the

spook everybody the Americans just the mushroom cloud yeah the it's because of

mushroom cloud yeah the it's because of

mushroom cloud yeah the it's because of the threat of escalation right again you

the threat of escalation right again you

the threat of escalation right again you your point is we're in a mad world I

your point is we're in a mad world I

your point is we're in a mad world I accept that and if you have limited

accept that and if you have limited

accept that and if you have limited nuclear use right we understand hard ly

nuclear use right we understand hard ly

nuclear use right we understand hard ly anything about nuclear escalation

anything about nuclear escalation

anything about nuclear escalation because thank goodness we've never had a

because thank goodness we've never had a

because thank goodness we've never had a nuclear war so once you throw both sides

nuclear war so once you throw both sides

nuclear war so once you throw both sides out on the slippery slope even if you

out on the slippery slope even if you

out on the slippery slope even if you only use one nuclear weapon in your

only use one nuclear weapon in your

only use one nuclear weapon in your scenario you don't know what the

scenario you don't know what the

scenario you don't know what the escalation Dynamics look like so

escalation Dynamics look like so

escalation Dynamics look like so everybody has a powerful incentive to

everybody has a powerful incentive to

everybody has a powerful incentive to put an end to the conflict right away I

put an end to the conflict right away I

put an end to the conflict right away I might add to you that there were people

might add to you that there were people

might add to you that there were people who believed that we would not even

who believed that we would not even

who believed that we would not even initiate a manipulation of risk strategy

initiate a manipulation of risk strategy

initiate a manipulation of risk strategy in Europe if we were losing to the warsa

in Europe if we were losing to the warsa

in Europe if we were losing to the warsa pack during the Cold War both Henry

pack during the Cold War both Henry

pack during the Cold War both Henry Kissinger and Robert mcnamar said after

Kissinger and Robert mcnamar said after

Kissinger and Robert mcnamar said after leaving office that they would not have

leaving office that they would not have

leaving office that they would not have done it they would have not initiated

done it they would have not initiated

done it they would have not initiated nuclear use even limited nuclear that's

nuclear use even limited nuclear that's

nuclear use even limited nuclear that's what we're talking about here they would

what we're talking about here they would

what we're talking about here they would rather be red than dead right that was

rather be red than dead right that was

rather be red than dead right that was is the argument too risky too risky

is the argument too risky too risky

is the argument too risky too risky that's exactly right but if they had

that's exactly right but if they had

that's exactly right but if they had used one nuclear weapon in your story or

used one nuclear weapon in your story or

used one nuclear weapon in your story or three or four in my

three or four in my

three or four in my story everybody would have said oh my

story everybody would have said oh my

story everybody would have said oh my God we've got to shut this one down

God we've got to shut this one down

God we've got to shut this one down immediately I only tell you this story

immediately I only tell you this story

immediately I only tell you this story or lay out this scenario be as an answer

or lay out this scenario be as an answer

or lay out this scenario be as an answer to your question of how you use nuclear

to your question of how you use nuclear

to your question of how you use nuclear weapons in a mad world and this is the

weapons in a mad world and this is the

weapons in a mad world and this is the answer I this is all very terrifying uh

answer I this is all very terrifying uh

answer I this is all very terrifying uh perhaps in part it's terrifying to me

perhaps in part it's terrifying to me

perhaps in part it's terrifying to me because I can see in the 21st

because I can see in the 21st

because I can see in the 21st century China

century China

century China Russia Israel United States using a

Russia Israel United States using a

Russia Israel United States using a nuclear weapon in this

nuclear weapon in this

nuclear weapon in this way blowing it up somewhere in the

way blowing it up somewhere in the

way blowing it up somewhere in the middle of nowhere that kills maybe

middle of nowhere that kills maybe

middle of nowhere that kills maybe nobody but I'm terrified of seeing the

nobody but I'm terrified of seeing the

nobody but I'm terrified of seeing the mushro cloud and not

mushro cloud and not

mushro cloud and not knowing what you know given social media

knowing what you know given social media

knowing what you know given social media given how fast news travels what the

given how fast news travels what the

given how fast news travels what the escalation looks like there just you

escalation looks like there just you

escalation looks like there just you know in in in a in a matter of minutes

know in in in a in a matter of minutes

know in in in a in a matter of minutes how the news travels and how the leaders

how the news travels and how the leaders

how the news travels and how the leaders react it's terrifying that this this

react it's terrifying that this this

react it's terrifying that this this little

little

little demonstration of

demonstration of

demonstration of power um the Ripple effects of it in a

power um the Ripple effects of it in a

power um the Ripple effects of it in a matter of minutes seconds what that

matter of minutes seconds what that

matter of minutes seconds what that leads to because it's like it's human

leads to because it's like it's human

leads to because it's like it's human emotions it's like you you see the

emotions it's like you you see the

emotions it's like you you see the landscape of human emotions the leaders

landscape of human emotions the leaders

landscape of human emotions the leaders and the populace and the and the way

and the populace and the and the way

and the populace and the and the way news are reported and then the landscape

news are reported and then the landscape

news are reported and then the landscape of risk as you mentioned shifting like

of risk as you mentioned shifting like

of risk as you mentioned shifting like the world's most intense nonlinear

the world's most intense nonlinear

the world's most intense nonlinear dynamical

dynamical

dynamical system and it it is just terrifying

system and it it is just terrifying

system and it it is just terrifying because the the the entirety of human

because the the the entirety of human

because the the the entirety of human civilizations hangs in the balance there

civilizations hangs in the balance there

civilizations hangs in the balance there and it's like like

and it's like like

and it's like like this like hundreds of millions of people

this like hundreds of millions of people

this like hundreds of millions of people could be dead let's just talk about this

could be dead let's just talk about this

could be dead let's just talk about this in the context of the Ukraine war

in the context of the Ukraine war

in the context of the Ukraine war um if uh if the Russians were losing as

um if uh if the Russians were losing as

um if uh if the Russians were losing as I said before which is not the case

I said before which is not the case

I said before which is not the case anymore but in 2022 it it did look like

anymore but in 2022 it it did look like

anymore but in 2022 it it did look like that um if the Russians are losing and

that um if the Russians are losing and

that um if the Russians are losing and they turn to nuclear weapons the

they turn to nuclear weapons the

they turn to nuclear weapons the question is how do they use them and

question is how do they use them and

question is how do they use them and they would use them in

they would use them in

they would use them in Ukraine and because Ukraine has no

Ukraine and because Ukraine has no

Ukraine and because Ukraine has no nuclear weapons of its own Ukraine

nuclear weapons of its own Ukraine

nuclear weapons of its own Ukraine cannot retaliate it's not a mutual

cannot retaliate it's not a mutual

cannot retaliate it's not a mutual assured destruction world it's a case

assured destruction world it's a case

assured destruction world it's a case where one side has nuclear weapons and

where one side has nuclear weapons and

where one side has nuclear weapons and the other doesn't that means that the

the other doesn't that means that the

the other doesn't that means that the Russians are likely to think that they

Russians are likely to think that they

Russians are likely to think that they can get away with using nuclear weapons

can get away with using nuclear weapons

can get away with using nuclear weapons in ways that would not be the case if

in ways that would not be the case if

in ways that would not be the case if they were attacking NATO and therefore

they were attacking NATO and therefore

they were attacking NATO and therefore it makes nuclear use more likely okay

it makes nuclear use more likely okay

it makes nuclear use more likely okay that's point one point two is let's

that's point one point two is let's

that's point one point two is let's assume that the Russians use two or

assume that the Russians use two or

assume that the Russians use two or three nuclear weapons in a remote area

three nuclear weapons in a remote area

three nuclear weapons in a remote area sweating by the way just just as a

sweating by the way just just as a

sweating by the way just just as a commentary the question terrifying yeah

commentary the question terrifying yeah

commentary the question terrifying yeah the question then is what does the West

the question then is what does the West

the question then is what does the West do now macron has said and Biden has

do now macron has said and Biden has

do now macron has said and Biden has also I think implicitly made this clear

also I think implicitly made this clear

also I think implicitly made this clear we would not retaliate with nuclear

we would not retaliate with nuclear

we would not retaliate with nuclear weapons if the Russians were to attack

weapons if the Russians were to attack

weapons if the Russians were to attack with a handful of nuclear weapons in

with a handful of nuclear weapons in

with a handful of nuclear weapons in Western

Western

Western Ukraine but then the question is what

Ukraine but then the question is what

Ukraine but then the question is what would we do mhm

would we do mhm

would we do mhm and if you listen to David Petraeus what

and if you listen to David Petraeus what

and if you listen to David Petraeus what David Petraeus says is that we should

David Petraeus says is that we should

David Petraeus says is that we should attack the Russian naval Assets in the

attack the Russian naval Assets in the

attack the Russian naval Assets in the Black

Black

Black Sea and attack Russian forces in

Sea and attack Russian forces in

Sea and attack Russian forces in Ukraine well once you do that you have a

Ukraine well once you do that you have a

Ukraine well once you do that you have a great power War you have NATO versus

great power War you have NATO versus

great power War you have NATO versus Russia which is another way of saying

Russia which is another way of saying

Russia which is another way of saying you have the United States versus Russia

you have the United States versus Russia

you have the United States versus Russia we're now in a great power War they have

we're now in a great power War they have

we're now in a great power War they have no nuclear weapons we have nuclear

no nuclear weapons we have nuclear

no nuclear weapons we have nuclear weapons they've used nuclear weapons

weapons they've used nuclear weapons

weapons they've used nuclear weapons what is the happy ending here and just

what is the happy ending here and just

what is the happy ending here and just to take it a step further and go back to

to take it a step further and go back to

to take it a step further and go back to our earlier discussion about moving NATO

our earlier discussion about moving NATO

our earlier discussion about moving NATO up to Russia's borders the point I made

up to Russia's borders the point I made

up to Russia's borders the point I made which you surely agree with is that the

which you surely agree with is that the

which you surely agree with is that the Russians are very fearful when they see

Russians are very fearful when they see

Russians are very fearful when they see NATO coming up to their border well

NATO coming up to their border well

NATO coming up to their border well here's a case where not only is NATO

here's a case where not only is NATO

here's a case where not only is NATO come up to their border but they're in a

come up to their border but they're in a

come up to their border but they're in a war with NATO

war with NATO

war with NATO right on their

right on their

right on their border what do the escalation Dynamics

border what do the escalation Dynamics

border what do the escalation Dynamics look like there you know what the answer

look like there you know what the answer

look like there you know what the answer is who knows that should scare the

is who knows that should scare the

is who knows that should scare the living but Jesus out of you right and

living but Jesus out of you right and

living but Jesus out of you right and some of it could be like you mentioned

some of it could be like you mentioned

some of it could be like you mentioned unintended there could be unintended

unintended there could be unintended

unintended there could be unintended consequences there could be a Russian

consequences there could be a Russian

consequences there could be a Russian missile misses and hits

missile misses and hits

missile misses and hits Poland these kinds of things that just

Poland these kinds of things that just

Poland these kinds of things that just escalate

escalate

escalate misunderstandings

misunderstandings

misunderstandings miscommunications even uh I mean nuclear

miscommunications even uh I mean nuclear

miscommunications even uh I mean nuclear weapon could be boy it could have been

weapon could be boy it could have been

weapon could be boy it could have been planned to go location X and it went to

planned to go location X and it went to

planned to go location X and it went to a location y that ended up actually

a location y that ended up actually

a location y that ended up actually killing a very large number of people I

killing a very large number of people I

killing a very large number of people I mean uh

mean uh

mean uh just that the the escalation that

just that the the escalation that

just that the the escalation that happens there just happens in in a

happens there just happens in in a

happens there just happens in in a matter of minutes and the only way to

matter of minutes and the only way to

matter of minutes and the only way to stop that is communication between

stop that is communication between

stop that is communication between leaders and that to me is a big argument

leaders and that to me is a big argument

leaders and that to me is a big argument for ongoing communication you know this

for ongoing communication you know this

for ongoing communication you know this is a story that during the Cuban Missile

is a story that during the Cuban Missile

is a story that during the Cuban Missile Crisis um Kennedy put out the word uh no

Crisis um Kennedy put out the word uh no

Crisis um Kennedy put out the word uh no aircraft uh under any circumstances or

aircraft uh under any circumstances or

aircraft uh under any circumstances or to penetrate Soviet airspace yeah yeah

to penetrate Soviet airspace yeah yeah

to penetrate Soviet airspace yeah yeah and he then found out a few days later

and he then found out a few days later

and he then found out a few days later that uh some guy hadn't gotten the

that uh some guy hadn't gotten the

that uh some guy hadn't gotten the message and had penetrated in an

message and had penetrated in an

message and had penetrated in an aircraft deep in to Soviet airspace yeah

aircraft deep in to Soviet airspace yeah

aircraft deep in to Soviet airspace yeah and uh this supports your basic point

and uh this supports your basic point

and uh this supports your basic point that you know you know uh bad things

that you know you know uh bad things

that you know you know uh bad things happen and uh and again the overarching

happen and uh and again the overarching

happen and uh and again the overarching point here is we've never done this

point here is we've never done this

point here is we've never done this before thankfully therefore we don't

before thankfully therefore we don't

before thankfully therefore we don't have a lot of experience as to how it

have a lot of experience as to how it

have a lot of experience as to how it plays itself out uh it it's really a

plays itself out uh it it's really a

plays itself out uh it it's really a theoretical Enterprise because there's

theoretical Enterprise because there's

theoretical Enterprise because there's no empirical basis for talking about

no empirical basis for talking about

no empirical basis for talking about escalation uh you know in a nuclear

escalation uh you know in a nuclear

escalation uh you know in a nuclear crisis and that of course is a wonderful

crisis and that of course is a wonderful

crisis and that of course is a wonderful thing well in general the uh the human

thing well in general the uh the human

thing well in general the uh the human spe species as a whole is a is a oneoff

spe species as a whole is a is a oneoff

spe species as a whole is a is a oneoff is a theoretical Enterprise the survival

is a theoretical Enterprise the survival

is a theoretical Enterprise the survival of the human species you know we've seen

of the human species you know we've seen

of the human species you know we've seen Empires rise and fall but we haven't

Empires rise and fall but we haven't

Empires rise and fall but we haven't seen the human species rise and fall so

seen the human species rise and fall so

seen the human species rise and fall so far it's been rising but uh it's not

far it's been rising but uh it's not

far it's been rising but uh it's not obvious that it doesn't end in fact I

obvious that it doesn't end in fact I

obvious that it doesn't end in fact I think about aliens a lot and the fact

think about aliens a lot and the fact

think about aliens a lot and the fact that we don't see aliens makes me

that we don't see aliens makes me

that we don't see aliens makes me suspect it's not so easy to survive in

suspect it's not so easy to survive in

suspect it's not so easy to survive in this complicated world of ours Switching

this complicated world of ours Switching

this complicated world of ours Switching gears a little bit and going to a

gears a little bit and going to a

gears a little bit and going to a different part of the

different part of the

different part of the world also engulfed in

world also engulfed in

world also engulfed in war let me ask you about the uh

war let me ask you about the uh

war let me ask you about the uh situation in Israel uh why did Hamas

situation in Israel uh why did Hamas

situation in Israel uh why did Hamas attack Israel on October 7th 2023 as you

attack Israel on October 7th 2023 as you

attack Israel on October 7th 2023 as you understand the

situation what was the reason that

situation what was the reason that

situation what was the reason that attack

attack

attack happened well I think the main reason

happened well I think the main reason

happened well I think the main reason was that you had this suffocating

was that you had this suffocating

was that you had this suffocating occupation I think as long as the

occupation I think as long as the

occupation I think as long as the occupation persists the Palestinians are

occupation persists the Palestinians are

occupation persists the Palestinians are going to

going to

going to resist uh as you well know this is not

resist uh as you well know this is not

resist uh as you well know this is not the first time there has been a

the first time there has been a

the first time there has been a Palestinian Uprising there was the first

Palestinian Uprising there was the first

Palestinian Uprising there was the first inata there was the second inata now

inata there was the second inata now

inata there was the second inata now there's October 7th and they're

there's October 7th and they're

there's October 7th and they're uprisings besides those three uh so this

uprisings besides those three uh so this

uprisings besides those three uh so this is not terribly

is not terribly

is not terribly surprising uh a lot of people

surprising uh a lot of people

surprising uh a lot of people hypothesized that uh this attack was due

hypothesized that uh this attack was due

hypothesized that uh this attack was due to the fact that uh the Israelis the

to the fact that uh the Israelis the

to the fact that uh the Israelis the Saudis and the Americans were working

Saudis and the Americans were working

Saudis and the Americans were working together to Foster another Abraham

together to Foster another Abraham

together to Foster another Abraham Accord uh and that the Palestinians

Accord uh and that the Palestinians

Accord uh and that the Palestinians would in effect be sold down the river

would in effect be sold down the river

would in effect be sold down the river uh I think given the fact that this was

uh I think given the fact that this was

uh I think given the fact that this was in the planning stages for probably

in the planning stages for probably

in the planning stages for probably about two years uh and the Abraham

about two years uh and the Abraham

about two years uh and the Abraham Accords with regard to Saudi Arabia are

Accords with regard to Saudi Arabia are

Accords with regard to Saudi Arabia are relatively new phenomenon I don't think

relatively new phenomenon I don't think

relatively new phenomenon I don't think that's uh the main driving force here I

that's uh the main driving force here I

that's uh the main driving force here I think the main driving force is that the

think the main driving force is that the

think the main driving force is that the Palestinians uh feel oppressed as they

Palestinians uh feel oppressed as they

Palestinians uh feel oppressed as they should and that this was a a resistance

should and that this was a a resistance

should and that this was a a resistance move they were resisting the Israeli

move they were resisting the Israeli

move they were resisting the Israeli occupation so that

occupation so that

occupation so that resistance the attack involved killing a

resistance the attack involved killing a

resistance the attack involved killing a large number of Israeli

large number of Israeli

large number of Israeli civilians there's many questions ask

civilians there's many questions ask

civilians there's many questions ask there but one is do you think Hamas

there but one is do you think Hamas

there but one is do you think Hamas fully understood what the retaliation

fully understood what the retaliation

fully understood what the retaliation will involve from Israel into

will involve from Israel into

will involve from Israel into Gaza they had to understand I

Gaza they had to understand I

Gaza they had to understand I mean you had you know operation castled

mean you had you know operation castled

mean you had you know operation castled in

in

in 200 uh 8 2009 it started I think right

200 uh 8 2009 it started I think right

200 uh 8 2009 it started I think right after Christmas 20 8 and it ended right

after Christmas 20 8 and it ended right

after Christmas 20 8 and it ended right before President Obama took office uh in

before President Obama took office uh in

before President Obama took office uh in January 2009 and

January 2009 and

January 2009 and uh the Israelis periodically do what

uh the Israelis periodically do what

uh the Israelis periodically do what they call mowing the lawn where they go

they call mowing the lawn where they go

they call mowing the lawn where they go into Gaza and they pound the

into Gaza and they pound the

into Gaza and they pound the Palestinians uh to remind them that

Palestinians uh to remind them that

Palestinians uh to remind them that they're not supposed to rise up and

they're not supposed to rise up and

they're not supposed to rise up and cause any problem uh

cause any problem uh

cause any problem uh so there's no question in my mind that

so there's no question in my mind that

so there's no question in my mind that the uh the Hamas forces understood full

the uh the Hamas forces understood full

the uh the Hamas forces understood full well that the Israelis would retaliate

well that the Israelis would retaliate

well that the Israelis would retaliate and they would retaliate in force as

and they would retaliate in force as

and they would retaliate in force as they have done yeah even the metaphor of

they have done yeah even the metaphor of

they have done yeah even the metaphor of Mo the lawn is disturbing to me in many

Mo the lawn is disturbing to me in many

Mo the lawn is disturbing to me in many ways I actually

ways I actually

ways I actually saw uh Norman filastine I think say that

saw uh Norman filastine I think say that

saw uh Norman filastine I think say that well then if you use that metaphor then

well then if you use that metaphor then

well then if you use that metaphor then you could say that Hamas was also the

you could say that Hamas was also the

you could say that Hamas was also the lawn and it's such a

lawn and it's such a

lawn and it's such a horrific image because the result on

horrific image because the result on

horrific image because the result on either side is just the death of

either side is just the death of

either side is just the death of civilians I mean let me ask you about

civilians I mean let me ask you about

civilians I mean let me ask you about the death of civilians so during the

the death of civilians so during the

the death of civilians so during the attack 1400 Israelis were

attack 1400 Israelis were

attack 1400 Israelis were killed over 240 were taken hostage and

killed over 240 were taken hostage and

killed over 240 were taken hostage and then in response as we sit

then in response as we sit

then in response as we sit today uh Israel's military response has

today uh Israel's military response has

today uh Israel's military response has killed over 10,000 people in Gaza and

killed over 10,000 people in Gaza and

killed over 10,000 people in Gaza and given the nature of the demographics

given the nature of the demographics

given the nature of the demographics it's it's a very heavily young

it's it's a very heavily young

it's it's a very heavily young population over 40% of them are under

population over 40% of them are under

population over 40% of them are under the age of 18 of those killed that's uh

the age of 18 of those killed that's uh

the age of 18 of those killed that's uh of course according to Ministry of

of course according to Ministry of

of course according to Ministry of Health of Palestinian

Health of Palestinian

Health of Palestinian Authority so what do you think is a

Authority so what do you think is a

Authority so what do you think is a long-term effect on the prospect of

long-term effect on the prospect of

long-term effect on the prospect of Peace when so many civilians

Peace when so many civilians

Peace when so many civilians die I mean I think it's disastrous

die I mean I think it's disastrous

die I mean I think it's disastrous U uh I mean

the only way you're going to get peace

the only way you're going to get peace

the only way you're going to get peace here uh is if you have a two-state

here uh is if you have a two-state

here uh is if you have a two-state solution um where the Palestinians have

solution um where the Palestinians have

solution um where the Palestinians have a sovereign state of their own and there

a sovereign state of their own and there

a sovereign state of their own and there is a sovereign Jewish State uh and these

is a sovereign Jewish State uh and these

is a sovereign Jewish State uh and these two states live side by side American

two states live side by side American

two states live side by side American Presidents since Jimmy Carter have

Presidents since Jimmy Carter have

Presidents since Jimmy Carter have understood this full well and this is

understood this full well and this is

understood this full well and this is why we have pushed very hard for

why we have pushed very hard for

why we have pushed very hard for two-state solution indeed many American

two-state solution indeed many American

two-state solution indeed many American Jews and many Israelis have pushed for a

Jews and many Israelis have pushed for a

Jews and many Israelis have pushed for a two-state solution because they think

two-state solution because they think

two-state solution because they think that that is the only way you're going

that that is the only way you're going

that that is the only way you're going to get uh peace uh between the two sides

to get uh peace uh between the two sides

to get uh peace uh between the two sides uh but what's happened here is that in

uh but what's happened here is that in

uh but what's happened here is that in recent years the Israelis have lost all

recent years the Israelis have lost all

recent years the Israelis have lost all interest in a two-state solution uh and

interest in a two-state solution uh and

interest in a two-state solution uh and it's in large part because the political

it's in large part because the political

it's in large part because the political center of gravity in Israel has steadily

center of gravity in Israel has steadily

center of gravity in Israel has steadily moved to the right uh when I was a young

moved to the right uh when I was a young

moved to the right uh when I was a young boy uh the political Center of GRA

boy uh the political Center of GRA

boy uh the political Center of GRA in Israel was much further to the left

in Israel was much further to the left

in Israel was much further to the left than it is today and uh it is in uh it

than it is today and uh it is in uh it

than it is today and uh it is in uh it is in a position now the political

is in a position now the political

is in a position now the political center of gravity where there's hardly

center of gravity where there's hardly

center of gravity where there's hardly any support for two-state solution and

any support for two-state solution and

any support for two-state solution and Netanyahu and the rest of the people in

Netanyahu and the rest of the people in

Netanyahu and the rest of the people in his government were in favor or are in

his government were in favor or are in

his government were in favor or are in favor of a greater Israel this just no

favor of a greater Israel this just no

favor of a greater Israel this just no question about

question about

question about that

that

that well on top of that you now have had a

well on top of that you now have had a

well on top of that you now have had a war where as you

war where as you

war where as you described huge numbers of civilians have

described huge numbers of civilians have

described huge numbers of civilians have been killed and you already had bad

been killed and you already had bad

been killed and you already had bad blood between the Palestinians and the

blood between the Palestinians and the

blood between the Palestinians and the Israelis before this

Israelis before this

Israelis before this conflict uh and you can imagine how

conflict uh and you can imagine how

conflict uh and you can imagine how people on each side now feel about

people on each side now feel about

people on each side now feel about people on the other side so even if you

people on the other side so even if you

people on the other side so even if you didn't have this opposition inside

didn't have this opposition inside

didn't have this opposition inside Israel to a two-state solution

Israel to a two-state solution

Israel to a two-state solution how could you possibly get the Israelis

how could you possibly get the Israelis

how could you possibly get the Israelis now to agree to a two-state solution I

now to agree to a two-state solution I

now to agree to a two-state solution I think for the foreseeable future the

think for the foreseeable future the

think for the foreseeable future the animosity inside Israel towards the

animosity inside Israel towards the

animosity inside Israel towards the Palestinians is so great that it is

Palestinians is so great that it is

Palestinians is so great that it is impossible to move the Israelis in that

impossible to move the Israelis in that

impossible to move the Israelis in that direction and the Israelis here are the

direction and the Israelis here are the

direction and the Israelis here are the key players more so than the

key players more so than the

key players more so than the Palestinians because it's the Israelis

Palestinians because it's the Israelis

Palestinians because it's the Israelis who control greater Israel it's the

who control greater Israel it's the

who control greater Israel it's the Israelis who you have to convince now I

Israelis who you have to convince now I

Israelis who you have to convince now I want to be clear here you also

want to be clear here you also

want to be clear here you also ultimately have to get around the fact

ultimately have to get around the fact

ultimately have to get around the fact that Hamas right is not committed to a

that Hamas right is not committed to a

that Hamas right is not committed to a two State solution but I think that

two State solution but I think that

two State solution but I think that problem could be dealt with it's

problem could be dealt with it's

problem could be dealt with it's important to understand that Arafat and

important to understand that Arafat and

important to understand that Arafat and the PLO was once adamantly opposed to a

the PLO was once adamantly opposed to a

the PLO was once adamantly opposed to a two-state solution but Arafat came

two-state solution but Arafat came

two-state solution but Arafat came around to understand that that was

around to understand that that was

around to understand that that was really the only hope for settling this

really the only hope for settling this

really the only hope for settling this and he became a proponent of a two-state

and he became a proponent of a two-state

and he became a proponent of a two-state solution and that's true of makhmud

solution and that's true of makhmud

solution and that's true of makhmud Abbas who runs the PA in the West

Abbas who runs the PA in the West

Abbas who runs the PA in the West Bank it's not true of Hamas at this

Bank it's not true of Hamas at this

Bank it's not true of Hamas at this point in time they want a one- state

point in time they want a one- state

point in time they want a one- state solution they want a Palestinian State

solution they want a Palestinian State

solution they want a Palestinian State and of course the Israelis want a

and of course the Israelis want a

and of course the Israelis want a one-state solution too which is a Jewish

one-state solution too which is a Jewish

one-state solution too which is a Jewish state that controls all of um all of

state that controls all of um all of

state that controls all of um all of Greater

Greater

Greater Israel so the question is can you get

Israel so the question is can you get

Israel so the question is can you get some sort of agreement and I think to

some sort of agreement and I think to

some sort of agreement and I think to get to your the nub of your question

get to your the nub of your question

get to your the nub of your question given what's just happened uh it's it's

given what's just happened uh it's it's

given what's just happened uh it's it's almost impossible to imagine that

almost impossible to imagine that

almost impossible to imagine that happening anytime soon the cynical

happening anytime soon the cynical

happening anytime soon the cynical perspective here is that uh those in

perspective here is that uh those in

perspective here is that uh those in power benefit from conflict while the

power benefit from conflict while the

power benefit from conflict while the people on both sides suffer is there a

people on both sides suffer is there a

people on both sides suffer is there a degree of Truth to that or for the

degree of Truth to that or for the

degree of Truth to that or for the people in power to maintain power

people in power to maintain power

people in power to maintain power conflict needs to continue no I I don't

conflict needs to continue no I I don't

conflict needs to continue no I I don't believe that I mean just to take the

believe that I mean just to take the

believe that I mean just to take the Netanyahu government or any Israeli

Netanyahu government or any Israeli

Netanyahu government or any Israeli government that maintains uh the

government that maintains uh the

government that maintains uh the occupation what you want is you want a

occupation what you want is you want a

occupation what you want is you want a Palestinian population that submits to

Palestinian population that submits to

Palestinian population that submits to Israeli domination of Greater Israel you

Israeli domination of Greater Israel you

Israeli domination of Greater Israel you don't want resistance you don't want an

don't want resistance you don't want an

don't want resistance you don't want an inada you don't want what happened on

inada you don't want what happened on

inada you don't want what happened on October 7th in fact I think one of the

October 7th in fact I think one of the

October 7th in fact I think one of the principal reasons that the Israelis are

principal reasons that the Israelis are

principal reasons that the Israelis are pounding Gaza and killing huge numbers

pounding Gaza and killing huge numbers

pounding Gaza and killing huge numbers of civilians punishing the civilian

of civilians punishing the civilian

of civilians punishing the civilian population in ways that clearly violate

population in ways that clearly violate

population in ways that clearly violate the laws of war is because they want the

the laws of war is because they want the

the laws of war is because they want the Palestinians to understand that they are

Palestinians to understand that they are

Palestinians to understand that they are not allowed to rise up and resist the

not allowed to rise up and resist the

not allowed to rise up and resist the occupation that's their goal so I think

occupation that's their goal so I think

occupation that's their goal so I think the Israelis would prefer that the

the Israelis would prefer that the

the Israelis would prefer that the Palestinians roll over and accept

Palestinians roll over and accept

Palestinians roll over and accept submission in terms of the people who

submission in terms of the people who

submission in terms of the people who live in Gaza to include the elites and

live in Gaza to include the elites and

live in Gaza to include the elites and the people who live in the West Bank to

the people who live in the West Bank to

the people who live in the West Bank to include the elites they would much

include the elites they would much

include the elites they would much prefer to move to some sort of situation

prefer to move to some sort of situation

prefer to move to some sort of situation where uh the Palestinians have a state

where uh the Palestinians have a state

where uh the Palestinians have a state of their own I think in the case of the

of their own I think in the case of the

of their own I think in the case of the pa uh under abas they would accept a

pa uh under abas they would accept a

pa uh under abas they would accept a two-state solution I think what at this

two-state solution I think what at this

two-state solution I think what at this point in time Hamas wants is a one-state

point in time Hamas wants is a one-state

point in time Hamas wants is a one-state solution but they want peace all of them

solution but they want peace all of them

solution but they want peace all of them want peace um you know the two different

want peace um you know the two different

want peace um you know the two different sets of leadership in Palestine and the

sets of leadership in Palestine and the

sets of leadership in Palestine and the Israelis so you think Hamas wants peace

Israelis so you think Hamas wants peace

Israelis so you think Hamas wants peace sure but on its own terms that's the

sure but on its own terms that's the

sure but on its own terms that's the point what does peace look like like for

point what does peace look like like for

point what does peace look like like for Hamas at this point in time I think

Hamas at this point in time I think

Hamas at this point in time I think peace basically means a greater Israel

peace basically means a greater Israel

peace basically means a greater Israel controlled by Palestine or

controlled by Palestine or

controlled by Palestine or Palestinians okay so essentially I mean

Palestinians okay so essentially I mean

Palestinians okay so essentially I mean it's the whole land is called Palestine

it's the whole land is called Palestine

it's the whole land is called Palestine and there's no Israel I think at this

and there's no Israel I think at this

and there's no Israel I think at this point in time that's their principal

point in time that's their principal

point in time that's their principal goal I do believe and there have been

goal I do believe and there have been

goal I do believe and there have been hints over time Jimmy Carter has said

hints over time Jimmy Carter has said

hints over time Jimmy Carter has said this that Hamas can be convinced that a

this that Hamas can be convinced that a

this that Hamas can be convinced that a two-state solution assuming that the

two-state solution assuming that the

two-state solution assuming that the Palestinians get a viable

Palestinians get a viable

Palestinians get a viable uh state of their own that Hamas would

uh state of their own that Hamas would

uh state of their own that Hamas would buy into that can we say that with a

buy into that can we say that with a

buy into that can we say that with a high degree of certainty no but I think

high degree of certainty no but I think

high degree of certainty no but I think I think the Israelis should have pursued

I think the Israelis should have pursued

I think the Israelis should have pursued that possibility they should have worked

that possibility they should have worked

that possibility they should have worked with abas they should have worked with

with abas they should have worked with

with abas they should have worked with Hamas to do everything they can to

Hamas to do everything they can to

Hamas to do everything they can to facilitate a two-state solution because

facilitate a two-state solution because

facilitate a two-state solution because I think ultimately that's in Israel's

I think ultimately that's in Israel's

I think ultimately that's in Israel's interest now the Israeli government and

interest now the Israeli government and

interest now the Israeli government and most Israelis at this point in time I

most Israelis at this point in time I

most Israelis at this point in time I believe don't agree with that what do

believe don't agree with that what do

believe don't agree with that what do you think of Israel starting the ground

you think of Israel starting the ground

you think of Israel starting the ground invasion of Gaza recently on October

invasion of Gaza recently on October

invasion of Gaza recently on October 27th the question

27th the question

27th the question is uh should they

is uh should they

is uh should they continue uh until they have finally

continue uh until they have finally

continue uh until they have finally defeated

defeated

defeated Hamas uh there are all sorts of reports

Hamas uh there are all sorts of reports

Hamas uh there are all sorts of reports in the media including in the Israeli

in the media including in the Israeli

in the media including in the Israeli media that they're not going to be

media that they're not going to be

media that they're not going to be allowed by the United States to continue

allowed by the United States to continue

allowed by the United States to continue this

this

this offensive uh for much more than a few

offensive uh for much more than a few

offensive uh for much more than a few weeks um the Israelis have been saying

weeks um the Israelis have been saying

weeks um the Israelis have been saying it would it's going to take in in the

it would it's going to take in in the

it would it's going to take in in the best of all possible worlds a number of

best of all possible worlds a number of

best of all possible worlds a number of months if not a year to finish off Hamas

months if not a year to finish off Hamas

months if not a year to finish off Hamas well it doesn't look like they're going

well it doesn't look like they're going

well it doesn't look like they're going to have enough time to do that I doubt

to have enough time to do that I doubt

to have enough time to do that I doubt whether they can finish off Hamas even

whether they can finish off Hamas even

whether they can finish off Hamas even if they're given the time uh I think

if they're given the time uh I think

if they're given the time uh I think they're going to run into Fierce

they're going to run into Fierce

they're going to run into Fierce resistance

resistance

resistance uh and when they run into Fierce

uh and when they run into Fierce

uh and when they run into Fierce resistance and large numbers of Israelis

resistance and large numbers of Israelis

resistance and large numbers of Israelis going to die start to die uh they'll

going to die start to die uh they'll

going to die start to die uh they'll lose their appetite for this and they

lose their appetite for this and they

lose their appetite for this and they the Israelis surely know at this point

the Israelis surely know at this point

the Israelis surely know at this point in time that even if they finish off

in time that even if they finish off

in time that even if they finish off Hamas even if I'm wrong and they're able

Hamas even if I'm wrong and they're able

Hamas even if I'm wrong and they're able to finish off Hamas another group is

to finish off Hamas another group is

to finish off Hamas another group is going to rise up to uh resist the

going to rise up to uh resist the

going to rise up to uh resist the occupation the idea that you can use

occupation the idea that you can use

occupation the idea that you can use what Z Yaba insky called the Iron Wall

what Z Yaba insky called the Iron Wall

what Z Yaba insky called the Iron Wall to beat the Palestinians into submission

to beat the Palestinians into submission

to beat the Palestinians into submission is delusional it's just not going to

is delusional it's just not going to

is delusional it's just not going to happen the Palestinians want a state of

happen the Palestinians want a state of

happen the Palestinians want a state of their own they don't want to live under

their own they don't want to live under

their own they don't want to live under occupation and uh there's no military

occupation and uh there's no military

occupation and uh there's no military solution for Israel here there has to be

solution for Israel here there has to be

solution for Israel here there has to be a political solution and the only viable

a political solution and the only viable

a political solution and the only viable political solution is a two-state

political solution is a two-state

political solution is a two-state solution I mean you can't go to

solution I mean you can't go to

solution I mean you can't go to democracy you can't go to a situation

democracy you can't go to a situation

democracy you can't go to a situation where you give the Palestinians equal

where you give the Palestinians equal

where you give the Palestinians equal rights inside a greater Israel in large

rights inside a greater Israel in large

rights inside a greater Israel in large part because there are

part because there are

part because there are now as many Palestinians as there are

now as many Palestinians as there are

now as many Palestinians as there are Israeli Jews and over time the balance

Israeli Jews and over time the balance

Israeli Jews and over time the balance the demographic balance shifts against

the demographic balance shifts against

the demographic balance shifts against the Israeli Jews and in favor the

the Israeli Jews and in favor the

the Israeli Jews and in favor the Palestinians in which case you'll end up

Palestinians in which case you'll end up

Palestinians in which case you'll end up with a Palestinian state in Greater

with a Palestinian state in Greater

with a Palestinian state in Greater Israel so you know democracy for all

Israel so you know democracy for all

Israel so you know democracy for all doesn't work uh the Israelis I believe

doesn't work uh the Israelis I believe

doesn't work uh the Israelis I believe are quite interested in ethnic cleansing

are quite interested in ethnic cleansing

are quite interested in ethnic cleansing I think they saw this um uh this recent

I think they saw this um uh this recent

I think they saw this um uh this recent set of events as an opportunity to

set of events as an opportunity to

set of events as an opportunity to cleanse Gaza but that's not going to

cleanse Gaza but that's not going to

cleanse Gaza but that's not going to happen uh the jordanians and the

happen uh the jordanians and the

happen uh the jordanians and the Egyptians have made it clear that that's

Egyptians have made it clear that that's

Egyptians have made it clear that that's not happening the United States has now

not happening the United States has now

not happening the United States has now made it clear that that's not happening

made it clear that that's not happening

made it clear that that's not happening and and the Palestinians will not leave

and and the Palestinians will not leave

and and the Palestinians will not leave uh they'll die in place uh so uh ethnic

uh they'll die in place uh so uh ethnic

uh they'll die in place uh so uh ethnic cleansing doesn't work so you're really

cleansing doesn't work so you're really

cleansing doesn't work so you're really left with two Alternatives a two-state

left with two Alternatives a two-state

left with two Alternatives a two-state solution or a greater Israel that is

solution or a greater Israel that is

solution or a greater Israel that is effectively an apartheid state I mean

effectively an apartheid state I mean

effectively an apartheid state I mean that's what the occupation has led to

that's what the occupation has led to

that's what the occupation has led to and all sorts of people have been

and all sorts of people have been

and all sorts of people have been predicting this for a long long time and

predicting this for a long long time and

predicting this for a long long time and you've now reached the point you know

you've now reached the point you know

you've now reached the point you know here in the United States if you say

here in the United States if you say

here in the United States if you say that Israel is an apartheid state that's

that Israel is an apartheid state that's

that Israel is an apartheid state that's going to get you into all sorts of

going to get you into all sorts of

going to get you into all sorts of trouble but the fact is that Human

trouble but the fact is that Human

trouble but the fact is that Human Rights Watch Amnesty International and

Rights Watch Amnesty International and

Rights Watch Amnesty International and betum which is the leading Israeli Human

betum which is the leading Israeli Human

betum which is the leading Israeli Human Rights group all three of those

Rights group all three of those

Rights group all three of those institutions or organizations have

institutions or organizations have

institutions or organizations have issued detailed reports making the case

issued detailed reports making the case

issued detailed reports making the case that Israel is an apartheid state

that Israel is an apartheid state

that Israel is an apartheid state furthermore if you read the Israeli

furthermore if you read the Israeli

furthermore if you read the Israeli media right all sorts of Israelis

media right all sorts of Israelis

media right all sorts of Israelis including Israeli

including Israeli

including Israeli leaders refer to Israel as an apartheid

leaders refer to Israel as an apartheid

leaders refer to Israel as an apartheid state it's it's not that unusual to hear

state it's it's not that unusual to hear

state it's it's not that unusual to hear that term used in Israel this is

that term used in Israel this is

that term used in Israel this is disaster for Israel in my opinion and

disaster for Israel in my opinion and

disaster for Israel in my opinion and Steve Walt and I said this by the way

Steve Walt and I said this by the way

Steve Walt and I said this by the way when we wrote the Israel Lobby that

when we wrote the Israel Lobby that

when we wrote the Israel Lobby that Israel is an aparte state which is

Israel is an aparte state which is

Israel is an aparte state which is equivalent to Israel as an occupier uh

equivalent to Israel as an occupier uh

equivalent to Israel as an occupier uh is not good for Israel uh and that

is not good for Israel uh and that

is not good for Israel uh and that brings us back to the two-state solution

brings us back to the two-state solution

brings us back to the two-state solution but as you and I were talking about a

but as you and I were talking about a

but as you and I were talking about a few minutes ago it's hard to see how you

few minutes ago it's hard to see how you

few minutes ago it's hard to see how you get a two-state

get a two-state

get a two-state solution and the end result of this

solution and the end result of this

solution and the end result of this conversation is utter despair

conversation is utter despair

conversation is utter despair because the path to a two-state solution

because the path to a two-state solution

because the path to a two-state solution is blocked by the amount of um hate

is blocked by the amount of um hate

is blocked by the amount of um hate that's created by civilian deaths so

that's created by civilian deaths so

that's created by civilian deaths so that plus the fact that the Israeli

that plus the fact that the Israeli

that plus the fact that the Israeli government uh is filled with people uh

government uh is filled with people uh

government uh is filled with people uh who have no interest in a two-state

who have no interest in a two-state

who have no interest in a two-state solution they're

solution they're

solution they're ideologically deeply committed to a

ideologically deeply committed to a

ideologically deeply committed to a greater Israel they want all the land

greater Israel they want all the land

greater Israel they want all the land between the Jordan River and the

between the Jordan River and the

between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea to

Mediterranean Sea to

Mediterranean Sea to be part of a Jewish state they're just

be part of a Jewish state they're just

be part of a Jewish state they're just ideologically committed to that and uh

ideologically committed to that and uh

ideologically committed to that and uh and of course as we were talking about

and of course as we were talking about

and of course as we were talking about before with regard to Hamas Hamas wants

before with regard to Hamas Hamas wants

before with regard to Hamas Hamas wants everything between the river and the sea

everything between the river and the sea

everything between the river and the sea to be a Palestinian State and you know

to be a Palestinian State and you know

to be a Palestinian State and you know when you have two sides with those kinds

when you have two sides with those kinds

when you have two sides with those kinds of views right um um you're in deep

of views right um um you're in deep

of views right um um you're in deep trouble because there's little room for

trouble because there's little room for

trouble because there's little room for compromise so what you have to do to get

compromise so what you have to do to get

compromise so what you have to do to get this to work is you have to convince the

this to work is you have to convince the

this to work is you have to convince the Israelis that it's in their interest to

Israelis that it's in their interest to

Israelis that it's in their interest to have a two-state solution and you have

have a two-state solution and you have

have a two-state solution and you have you've already taken care of the PA on

you've already taken care of the PA on

you've already taken care of the PA on this front the Palestinian Authority but

this front the Palestinian Authority but

this front the Palestinian Authority but you've got to convince Hamas that it's

you've got to convince Hamas that it's

you've got to convince Hamas that it's uh its maximalist goals are are not

uh its maximalist goals are are not

uh its maximalist goals are are not going to work and it's in its interest

going to work and it's in its interest

going to work and it's in its interest uh to follow in the footsteps of Arafat

uh to follow in the footsteps of Arafat

uh to follow in the footsteps of Arafat and accept a two-state solution but uh

and accept a two-state solution but uh

and accept a two-state solution but uh even if you do that at this point let's

even if you do that at this point let's

even if you do that at this point let's say that you know there's a lot of

say that you know there's a lot of

say that you know there's a lot of willing inness uh intellectually on both

willing inness uh intellectually on both

willing inness uh intellectually on both sides to do that the problem is that the

sides to do that the problem is that the

sides to do that the problem is that the hatred that has been fueled by this

hatred that has been fueled by this

hatred that has been fueled by this recent con uh this ongoing conflict is

recent con uh this ongoing conflict is

recent con uh this ongoing conflict is so great that it's just hard to imagine

so great that it's just hard to imagine

so great that it's just hard to imagine how you can make a two-state solution

how you can make a two-state solution

how you can make a two-state solution work at this juncture uh that's why I've

work at this juncture uh that's why I've

work at this juncture uh that's why I've sort of taken to saying and I hope I'm

sort of taken to saying and I hope I'm

sort of taken to saying and I hope I'm wrong here that you know on the

wrong here that you know on the

wrong here that you know on the two-state solution uh that that boat has

two-state solution uh that that boat has

two-state solution uh that that boat has sailed it's just you know it's no longer

sailed it's just you know it's no longer

sailed it's just you know it's no longer possible well again I believe in

possible well again I believe in

possible well again I believe in leadership and there's other parties at

leadership and there's other parties at

leadership and there's other parties at play here Other Nations Jordan Saudi

play here Other Nations Jordan Saudi

play here Other Nations Jordan Saudi Arabia other other players in the m in

Arabia other other players in the m in

Arabia other other players in the m in the Middle East that could help that

the Middle East that could help that

the Middle East that could help that could help through a normalization of

could help through a normalization of

could help through a normalization of relationships and these kinds of things

relationships and these kinds of things

relationships and these kinds of things there's there's always hope like you

there's there's always hope like you

there's there's always hope like you said Slither of Hope Slither of hope I

said Slither of Hope Slither of hope I

said Slither of Hope Slither of hope I think human civilization progresses

think human civilization progresses

think human civilization progresses forward by taking advantage of the all

forward by taking advantage of the all

forward by taking advantage of the all the slyther it can get uh let me ask you

the slyther it can get uh let me ask you

the slyther it can get uh let me ask you about you mentioned the Israel Lobby you

about you mentioned the Israel Lobby you

about you mentioned the Israel Lobby you wrote a book probably your most

wrote a book probably your most

wrote a book probably your most controversial book on the topic not

controversial book on the topic not

controversial book on the topic not probably clearly the most controversial

probably clearly the most controversial

probably clearly the most controversial book I ever wrote so you've uh

book I ever wrote so you've uh

book I ever wrote so you've uh criticized the Israel Lobby in the

criticized the Israel Lobby in the

criticized the Israel Lobby in the United States for influencing US

United States for influencing US

United States for influencing US policy um in the Middle East can you

policy um in the Middle East can you

policy um in the Middle East can you explain what the Israel Lobby is their

explain what the Israel Lobby is their

explain what the Israel Lobby is their influence and your

influence and your

influence and your criticism over the past let's say a

criticism over the past let's say a

criticism over the past let's say a couple

couple

couple decades well the argument that Steve

decades well the argument that Steve

decades well the argument that Steve Walt and I made actually we wrote an

Walt and I made actually we wrote an

Walt and I made actually we wrote an article first and uh which appeared in

article first and uh which appeared in

article first and uh which appeared in the London Review of Books uh and then

the London Review of Books uh and then

the London Review of Books uh and then we wrote the book

we wrote the book

we wrote the book itself uh our argument is that the lobby

itself uh our argument is that the lobby

itself uh our argument is that the lobby is a loose Coalition of individuals and

is a loose Coalition of individuals and

is a loose Coalition of individuals and organizations uh that push American

organizations uh that push American

organizations uh that push American policy in a pro-israel

policy in a pro-israel

policy in a pro-israel direction uh and uh basically the lobby

direction uh and uh basically the lobby

direction uh and uh basically the lobby is interested in getting Israel excuse

is interested in getting Israel excuse

is interested in getting Israel excuse me getting the United States and here

me getting the United States and here

me getting the United States and here we're talking mainly about the American

we're talking mainly about the American

we're talking mainly about the American government to support Israel no matter

government to support Israel no matter

government to support Israel no matter what Israel does and our argument is

what Israel does and our argument is

what Israel does and our argument is that if you look at the relationship

that if you look at the relationship

that if you look at the relationship between the United States and Israel

between the United States and Israel

between the United States and Israel it's unprecedented in modern history uh

it's unprecedented in modern history uh

it's unprecedented in modern history uh this is the closest relationship that

this is the closest relationship that

this is the closest relationship that you can find between any two countries

you can find between any two countries

you can find between any two countries in recorded history it's truly amazing

in recorded history it's truly amazing

in recorded history it's truly amazing the extent to which Israel and the

the extent to which Israel and the

the extent to which Israel and the United States are joined at the Hep and

United States are joined at the Hep and

United States are joined at the Hep and we support Israel no matter what almost

we support Israel no matter what almost

we support Israel no matter what almost all the time uh and uh our argument is

all the time uh and uh our argument is

all the time uh and uh our argument is that that is largely due to the

that that is largely due to the

that that is largely due to the influence of the lobby the lobby is uh

influence of the lobby the lobby is uh

influence of the lobby the lobby is uh an extremely powerful interest group now

an extremely powerful interest group now

an extremely powerful interest group now it's very important to understand that

it's very important to understand that

it's very important to understand that the American political system is set up

the American political system is set up

the American political system is set up in ways that allow interest groups of

in ways that allow interest groups of

in ways that allow interest groups of All Sorts to wield great influence so in

All Sorts to wield great influence so in

All Sorts to wield great influence so in the United States you have an interest

the United States you have an interest

the United States you have an interest group or a Lobby like the National Rifle

group or a Lobby like the National Rifle

group or a Lobby like the National Rifle Association that makes it well n

Association that makes it well n

Association that makes it well n impossible to get gun control right uh

impossible to get gun control right uh

impossible to get gun control right uh and so with the Israel Lobby you have

and so with the Israel Lobby you have

and so with the Israel Lobby you have this group of individuals and

this group of individuals and

this group of individuals and organizations that wield enormous

organizations that wield enormous

organizations that wield enormous influence on US policy toward the Middle

influence on US policy toward the Middle

influence on US policy toward the Middle East and this

East and this

East and this is not surprising given the nature of

is not surprising given the nature of

is not surprising given the nature of the American political system uh so our

the American political system uh so our

the American political system uh so our argument is that the lobby is not doing

argument is that the lobby is not doing

argument is that the lobby is not doing anything that's illegal or illicit or

anything that's illegal or illicit or

anything that's illegal or illicit or immoral or unethical it's just a good

immoral or unethical it's just a good

immoral or unethical it's just a good old-fashioned American interest group

old-fashioned American interest group

old-fashioned American interest group and it just happens to be extremely

and it just happens to be extremely

and it just happens to be extremely powerful

powerful

powerful and our argument is that this is not

and our argument is that this is not

and our argument is that this is not good for the United States because no

good for the United States because no

good for the United States because no two countries have the same interests

two countries have the same interests

two countries have the same interests all the time and when our interests

all the time and when our interests

all the time and when our interests conflict with Israel's interests we

conflict with Israel's interests we

conflict with Israel's interests we should be able to do what we think is in

should be able to do what we think is in

should be able to do what we think is in our national interest in America's

our national interest in America's

our national interest in America's national interest but the lobby tends to

national interest but the lobby tends to

national interest but the lobby tends to conflate America's national interests

conflate America's national interests

conflate America's national interests with Israel's National interest and

with Israel's National interest and

with Israel's National interest and wants the United States to support

wants the United States to support

wants the United States to support Israel no matter what we also argue and

Israel no matter what we also argue and

Israel no matter what we also argue and I cannot emphasize this enough given

I cannot emphasize this enough given

I cannot emphasize this enough given what's going on in the world today that

what's going on in the world today that

what's going on in the world today that the

the

the lobbies effects the lobby has not

lobbies effects the lobby has not

lobbies effects the lobby has not been pushing policies that are in

been pushing policies that are in

been pushing policies that are in Israel's interests so our argument is

Israel's interests so our argument is

Israel's interests so our argument is that the lobby right the lobby pushes

that the lobby right the lobby pushes

that the lobby right the lobby pushes policies that are not in America's

policies that are not in America's

policies that are not in America's interest or not in Israel's interest now

interest or not in Israel's interest now

interest or not in Israel's interest now you're saying to yourself what exactly

you're saying to yourself what exactly

you're saying to yourself what exactly does he mean by that

does he mean by that

does he mean by that what every president since Jimmy Carter

what every president since Jimmy Carter

what every president since Jimmy Carter has tried to do as I said before is to

has tried to do as I said before is to

has tried to do as I said before is to foster a two-state solution to push

foster a two-state solution to push

foster a two-state solution to push Israel which is the dominant

Israel which is the dominant

Israel which is the dominant player in Greater Israel push Israel to

player in Greater Israel push Israel to

player in Greater Israel push Israel to accept the two-state solution and we

accept the two-state solution and we

accept the two-state solution and we have run into huge resistance from the

have run into huge resistance from the

have run into huge resistance from the lobby whenever we tried to let's be

lobby whenever we tried to let's be

lobby whenever we tried to let's be blunt about it co Israel right in a

blunt about it co Israel right in a

blunt about it co Israel right in a perfect world where there was no Lobby

perfect world where there was no Lobby

perfect world where there was no Lobby and an American president was free to

and an American president was free to

and an American president was free to put pressure on Israel to coers Israel I

put pressure on Israel to coers Israel I

put pressure on Israel to coers Israel I believe we would have gone a long way

believe we would have gone a long way

believe we would have gone a long way towards getting two-state solution and I

towards getting two-state solution and I

towards getting two-state solution and I believe this would have been in Israel's

believe this would have been in Israel's

believe this would have been in Israel's interest uh but we couldn't get a

interest uh but we couldn't get a

interest uh but we couldn't get a two-state solution because it was almost

two-state solution because it was almost

two-state solution because it was almost impossible to put meaningful pressure on

impossible to put meaningful pressure on

impossible to put meaningful pressure on Israel because of the lobby so this was

Israel because of the lobby so this was

Israel because of the lobby so this was not in Israel's interest and it was not

not in Israel's interest and it was not

not in Israel's interest and it was not in America's interest and that was the

in America's interest and that was the

in America's interest and that was the argument that we made and uh we of

argument that we made and uh we of

argument that we made and uh we of course got huge push back for making

course got huge push back for making

course got huge push back for making that argument what's the underlying

that argument what's the underlying

that argument what's the underlying motivation of the lobby is it religious

motivation of the lobby is it religious

motivation of the lobby is it religious in nature is it um similar to the way

in nature is it um similar to the way

in nature is it um similar to the way warhawks are sort of militaristic in

warhawks are sort of militaristic in

warhawks are sort of militaristic in nature is it nationalistic in nature

nature is it nationalistic in nature

nature is it nationalistic in nature what what's uh if you were to describe

what what's uh if you were to describe

what what's uh if you were to describe this loose Coalition of people what what

this loose Coalition of people what what

this loose Coalition of people what what would you say is their motivation well

would you say is their motivation well

would you say is their motivation well first of all I think you have to

first of all I think you have to

first of all I think you have to distinguish between Jews and Christians

distinguish between Jews and Christians

distinguish between Jews and Christians you want to remember that there are a

you want to remember that there are a

you want to remember that there are a huge number of Christian zionists who

huge number of Christian zionists who

huge number of Christian zionists who are deeply committed to Israel no matter

are deeply committed to Israel no matter

are deeply committed to Israel no matter what right and then there are a large

what right and then there are a large

what right and then there are a large number of Jews the Jews are obviously

number of Jews the Jews are obviously

number of Jews the Jews are obviously the most important of those two groups

the most important of those two groups

the most important of those two groups in the Israel lobby but you know one of

in the Israel lobby but you know one of

in the Israel lobby but you know one of the arguments that we made in the book

the arguments that we made in the book

the arguments that we made in the book is that you should not call it the

is that you should not call it the

is that you should not call it the Jewish Lobby because it's not populated

Jewish Lobby because it's not populated

Jewish Lobby because it's not populated just by Jews and Christian zionists are

just by Jews and Christian zionists are

just by Jews and Christian zionists are an important part of that life lobby but

an important part of that life lobby but

an important part of that life lobby but furthermore there are a good number of

furthermore there are a good number of

furthermore there are a good number of Jews who are opposed to the lobby uh and

Jews who are opposed to the lobby uh and

Jews who are opposed to the lobby uh and the policies that the lobby perve and

the policies that the lobby perve and

the policies that the lobby perve and there are uh a number of Jews who are

there are uh a number of Jews who are

there are uh a number of Jews who are prominent

prominent

prominent anti-zionists right so and they're

anti-zionists right so and they're

anti-zionists right so and they're obviously not in the lobby or or if you

obviously not in the lobby or or if you

obviously not in the lobby or or if you take a group like Jewish voice for peace

take a group like Jewish voice for peace

take a group like Jewish voice for peace right Jewish voice for peace is not in

right Jewish voice for peace is not in

right Jewish voice for peace is not in the lobby so it's wrong to call it a

the lobby so it's wrong to call it a

the lobby so it's wrong to call it a Jewish Lobby but with regard to the

Jewish Lobby but with regard to the

Jewish Lobby but with regard to the American Jews who were in that Lobby uh

American Jews who were in that Lobby uh

American Jews who were in that Lobby uh I I think that really this is all about

I I think that really this is all about

I I think that really this is all about nationalism it's not so much religion

nationalism it's not so much religion

nationalism it's not so much religion many of those Jews who are influential

many of those Jews who are influential

many of those Jews who are influential in the lobby are not religious in any

in the lobby are not religious in any

in the lobby are not religious in any meaningful sense of that term but they

meaningful sense of that term but they

meaningful sense of that term but they self-identify as Jewish in in in the

self-identify as Jewish in in in the

self-identify as Jewish in in in the sense that they feel they're part of a

sense that they feel they're part of a

sense that they feel they're part of a Jewish nation and that in addition to

Jewish nation and that in addition to

Jewish nation and that in addition to being an American right are part of this

being an American right are part of this

being an American right are part of this tribe this nation called Jews and that

tribe this nation called Jews and that

tribe this nation called Jews and that they have a

they have a

they have a responsibility um to push the United

responsibility um to push the United

responsibility um to push the United States in ways that

States in ways that

States in ways that support uh the Jewish state so I I think

support uh the Jewish state so I I think

support uh the Jewish state so I I think that's what drives most if not almost

that's what drives most if not almost

that's what drives most if not almost all the Jews this is not to say there's

all the Jews this is not to say there's

all the Jews this is not to say there's not a religious dimension for some of

not a religious dimension for some of

not a religious dimension for some of them but I think that the the main

them but I think that the the main

them but I think that the the main connection is much more tribal in nature

connection is much more tribal in nature

connection is much more tribal in nature so I had a conversation with Benjamin

so I had a conversation with Benjamin

so I had a conversation with Benjamin Yahoo and he said fundamentally if

Yahoo and he said fundamentally if

Yahoo and he said fundamentally if you're anti-zionist you're

you're anti-zionist you're

you're anti-zionist you're anti-semitic so the the the Zionist

anti-semitic so the the the Zionist

anti-semitic so the the the Zionist project is tied at the hip to the Jewish

project is tied at the hip to the Jewish

project is tied at the hip to the Jewish project what do you have to say to that

project what do you have to say to that

project what do you have to say to that look you can Define

look you can Define

look you can Define anti-Semitism any way you want right and

anti-Semitism any way you want right and

anti-Semitism any way you want right and you can Define anti-Semitism to

you can Define anti-Semitism to

you can Define anti-Semitism to incorporate anti-an

incorporate anti-an

incorporate anti-an ISM uh and uh I think we have reached

ISM uh and uh I think we have reached

ISM uh and uh I think we have reached the point where

the point where

the point where anti-Semitism is identified today not

anti-Semitism is identified today not

anti-Semitism is identified today not just with anti-zionism but with

just with anti-zionism but with

just with anti-zionism but with criticism of Israel if you criticize

criticism of Israel if you criticize

criticism of Israel if you criticize Israel people will say some people will

Israel people will say some people will

Israel people will say some people will say you're an

say you're an

say you're an anti-semite and if that's your

anti-semite and if that's your

anti-semite and if that's your definition of

definition of

definition of anti-semitism it's taken an important

anti-semitism it's taken an important

anti-semitism it's taken an important term and stretched it to the point where

term and stretched it to the point where

term and stretched it to the point where it's

it's

it's meaningless right so when Steve and I

meaningless right so when Steve and I

meaningless right so when Steve and I wrote the book uh wrote the article and

wrote the book uh wrote the article and

wrote the book uh wrote the article and then wrote the book all sorts of people

then wrote the book all sorts of people

then wrote the book all sorts of people said that we were anti-semites this is a

said that we were anti-semites this is a

said that we were anti-semites this is a ludicrous charge but what they meant was

ludicrous charge but what they meant was

ludicrous charge but what they meant was you're criticizing the lobby you're

you're criticizing the lobby you're

you're criticizing the lobby you're criticizing Israel and therefore you're

criticizing Israel and therefore you're

criticizing Israel and therefore you're an

an

an anti-semite okay if that's what an

anti-semite okay if that's what an

anti-semite okay if that's what an anti-semite is somebody who criticizes

anti-semite is somebody who criticizes

anti-semite is somebody who criticizes Israel you know probably half the Jewish

Israel you know probably half the Jewish

Israel you know probably half the Jewish Community if not more in the United

Community if not more in the United

Community if not more in the United States is anti-Semitic and of course you

States is anti-Semitic and of course you

States is anti-Semitic and of course you get into all these crazy games where

get into all these crazy games where

get into all these crazy games where people are calling Jews self-hating Jews

people are calling Jews self-hating Jews

people are calling Jews self-hating Jews and anti-semites because they're

and anti-semites because they're

and anti-semites because they're critical of Israel but even people who

critical of Israel but even people who

critical of Israel but even people who are anti-zionists I don't think they're

are anti-zionists I don't think they're

are anti-zionists I don't think they're anti-semitic at all uh you can argue

anti-semitic at all uh you can argue

anti-semitic at all uh you can argue they're misguided that's fine but uh

they're misguided that's fine but uh

they're misguided that's fine but uh many of these people are Jewish and

many of these people are Jewish and

many of these people are Jewish and proud of the fact that they're Jewish

proud of the fact that they're Jewish

proud of the fact that they're Jewish they just don't believe that nationalism

they just don't believe that nationalism

they just don't believe that nationalism and Jewish nationalism is a force that

and Jewish nationalism is a force that

and Jewish nationalism is a force that should be applauded and you want to

should be applauded and you want to

should be applauded and you want to understand that in the American context

understand that in the American context

understand that in the American context there is a rich tradition of anti-

there is a rich tradition of anti-

there is a rich tradition of anti- Zionism right and these were not people

Zionism right and these were not people

Zionism right and these were not people who were anti-semites if you go back to

who were anti-semites if you go back to

who were anti-semites if you go back to the 30s 40s 50s and the same thing was

the 30s 40s 50s and the same thing was

the 30s 40s 50s and the same thing was even true in Europe there were all sorts

even true in Europe there were all sorts

even true in Europe there were all sorts of European Jews who were opposed to

of European Jews who were opposed to

of European Jews who were opposed to Zionism were they anti-semites I don't

Zionism were they anti-semites I don't

Zionism were they anti-semites I don't think so but we've gotten to the point

think so but we've gotten to the point

think so but we've gotten to the point now where people are so interested in

now where people are so interested in

now where people are so interested in stopping any criticism of Israel that

stopping any criticism of Israel that

stopping any criticism of Israel that they wield this weapon of uh calling

they wield this weapon of uh calling

they wield this weapon of uh calling people anti-semites uh so uh Loosely

people anti-semites uh so uh Loosely

people anti-semites uh so uh Loosely that uh the term has kind of lost

that uh the term has kind of lost

that uh the term has kind of lost meaning so I I think Netanyahu is is

meaning so I I think Netanyahu is is

meaning so I I think Netanyahu is is wrongheaded to equate uh anti-zionism

wrongheaded to equate uh anti-zionism

wrongheaded to equate uh anti-zionism with anti-Semitism Alan dtz was one of

with anti-Semitism Alan dtz was one of

with anti-Semitism Alan dtz was one of the people that call you specifically

the people that call you specifically

the people that call you specifically anti-semitic um so

anti-semitic um so

anti-semitic um so just looking at the space of

just looking at the space of

just looking at the space of discourse how do

discourse how do

discourse how do you where's this Slither of Hope for

you where's this Slither of Hope for

you where's this Slither of Hope for healthy discourse about us relationships

healthy discourse about us relationships

healthy discourse about us relationships with

with

with Israel

Israel

Israel um between you and Alan dtz and others

um between you and Alan dtz and others

um between you and Alan dtz and others like him well I think until there is a

like him well I think until there is a

like him well I think until there is a settlement of the Israeli Palestinian

settlement of the Israeli Palestinian

settlement of the Israeli Palestinian conf conflict there's no hope of putting

conf conflict there's no hope of putting

conf conflict there's no hope of putting an end to this nonsense right so these

an end to this nonsense right so these

an end to this nonsense right so these are just uses of terms to kind of cheat

are just uses of terms to kind of cheat

are just uses of terms to kind of cheat your way through the through the

your way through the through the

your way through the through the discourse it's shortcut no it's the

discourse it's shortcut no it's the

discourse it's shortcut no it's the silence people right it's very very

silence people right it's very very

silence people right it's very very important to understand that one of the

important to understand that one of the

important to understand that one of the lobb's principal goals is to make sure

lobb's principal goals is to make sure

lobb's principal goals is to make sure we don't have an open discourse a free

we don't have an open discourse a free

we don't have an open discourse a free willing discourse about Israel because

willing discourse about Israel because

willing discourse about Israel because they understand people in the lobby

they understand people in the lobby

they understand people in the lobby understand that if you have an open

understand that if you have an open

understand that if you have an open discourse Israel will end up looking

discourse Israel will end up looking

discourse Israel will end up looking very bad right you don't want to talk

very bad right you don't want to talk

very bad right you don't want to talk about the occupation you don't want to

about the occupation you don't want to

about the occupation you don't want to talk about how Israel was created right

talk about how Israel was created right

talk about how Israel was created right all all these subjects are ones that uh

all all these subjects are ones that uh

all all these subjects are ones that uh will cause problems for Israel see just

will cause problems for Israel see just

will cause problems for Israel see just to go to the present crisis okay when

to go to the present crisis okay when

to go to the present crisis okay when you have a

you have a

you have a disaster and what happened on October

disaster and what happened on October

disaster and what happened on October 7th is a disaster one of the first

7th is a disaster one of the first

7th is a disaster one of the first things that happens is that people begin

things that happens is that people begin

things that happens is that people begin to ask the question how did this happen

to ask the question how did this happen

to ask the question how did this happen right what's the root cause of this

right what's the root cause of this

right what's the root cause of this problem this is a disaster we have to

problem this is a disaster we have to

problem this is a disaster we have to understand what caused it so that we can

understand what caused it so that we can

understand what caused it so that we can work to uh to make sure it doesn't

work to uh to make sure it doesn't

work to uh to make sure it doesn't happen again so we can work to shut it

happen again so we can work to shut it

happen again so we can work to shut it down and then make sure it doesn't

down and then make sure it doesn't

down and then make sure it doesn't happen again but once you start talking

happen again but once you start talking

happen again but once you start talking about the root causes right you end up

about the root causes right you end up

about the root causes right you end up talking about how Israel was created

talking about how Israel was created

talking about how Israel was created right and that means telling a story

right and that means telling a story

right and that means telling a story that is not pretty about how the

that is not pretty about how the

that is not pretty about how the zionists conquered

zionists conquered

zionists conquered Palestine uh and number two it means

Palestine uh and number two it means

Palestine uh and number two it means talking about the occupation right it's

talking about the occupation right it's

talking about the occupation right it's not like uh Hamas attacked on October

not like uh Hamas attacked on October

not like uh Hamas attacked on October 7th because there were just a bunch of

7th because there were just a bunch of

7th because there were just a bunch of anti-semites who hated Jews and wanted

anti-semites who hated Jews and wanted

anti-semites who hated Jews and wanted to kill Jews this is not you know Nazi

to kill Jews this is not you know Nazi

to kill Jews this is not you know Nazi Germany right this is directly related

Germany right this is directly related

Germany right this is directly related to the occupation and to what was going

to the occupation and to what was going

to the occupation and to what was going on inside of Gaza and it's not in

on inside of Gaza and it's not in

on inside of Gaza and it's not in Israel's interest or the Lobby's

Israel's interest or the Lobby's

Israel's interest or the Lobby's interest to have an open discourse about

interest to have an open discourse about

interest to have an open discourse about what the Israelis have been doing to the

what the Israelis have been doing to the

what the Israelis have been doing to the Palestinians since I would say roughly

Palestinians since I would say roughly

Palestinians since I would say roughly 1903 when the second alah came to Israel

1903 when the second alah came to Israel

1903 when the second alah came to Israel or came to what was then Palestine right

or came to what was then Palestine right

or came to what was then Palestine right want to talk about that and we don't

want to talk about that and we don't

want to talk about that and we don't want to talk about from the Lobby's

want to talk about from the Lobby's

want to talk about from the Lobby's point of view the influence that the

point of view the influence that the

point of view the influence that the lobby has right uh it's better from the

lobby has right uh it's better from the

lobby has right uh it's better from the Lobby's point of view if most Americans

Lobby's point of view if most Americans

Lobby's point of view if most Americans think that uh American support of Israel

think that uh American support of Israel

think that uh American support of Israel is just done for all the right moral and

is just done for all the right moral and

is just done for all the right moral and strategic reasons not because of the

strategic reasons not because of the

strategic reasons not because of the lobby and when John mirer and Steve Walt

lobby and when John mirer and Steve Walt

lobby and when John mirer and Steve Walt come along and say you have to

come along and say you have to

come along and say you have to understand that this special

understand that this special

understand that this special relationship is due in large part to the

relationship is due in large part to the

relationship is due in large part to the Lobby's influence that is not an

Lobby's influence that is not an

Lobby's influence that is not an argument that uh people in the lobby

argument that uh people in the lobby

argument that uh people in the lobby want to hear so the point is you have to

want to hear so the point is you have to

want to hear so the point is you have to go to Great Lengths for all these

go to Great Lengths for all these

go to Great Lengths for all these reasons you have to go to Great Lengths

reasons you have to go to Great Lengths

reasons you have to go to Great Lengths to silence people like me and Steve Walt

to silence people like me and Steve Walt

to silence people like me and Steve Walt and one of the ways to do that is to

and one of the ways to do that is to

and one of the ways to do that is to call us anti-semites I think the chapter

call us anti-semites I think the chapter

call us anti-semites I think the chapter or the section of the book where we talk

or the section of the book where we talk

or the section of the book where we talk about this charge of anti-Semitism is

about this charge of anti-Semitism is

about this charge of anti-Semitism is called the Great silencer that's what we

called the Great silencer that's what we

called the Great silencer that's what we call the charge of anti-Semitism the

call the charge of anti-Semitism the

call the charge of anti-Semitism the great silencer who wants to be called an

great silencer who wants to be called an

great silencer who wants to be called an anti-semite especially in the wake of

anti-semite especially in the wake of

anti-semite especially in the wake of the Holocaust do I want to be called

the Holocaust do I want to be called

the Holocaust do I want to be called called an anti-semite oh my God no uh

called an anti-semite oh my God no uh

called an anti-semite oh my God no uh and uh so it's very effective but you

and uh so it's very effective but you

and uh so it's very effective but you know it is important to talk about these

know it is important to talk about these

know it is important to talk about these issues in my humble opinion and I think

issues in my humble opinion and I think

issues in my humble opinion and I think if we had talked about these issues uh

if we had talked about these issues uh

if we had talked about these issues uh way back

way back

way back when it would have gone a long way

when it would have gone a long way

when it would have gone a long way towards uh you know maybe getting a

towards uh you know maybe getting a

towards uh you know maybe getting a two-state solution which I think was the

two-state solution which I think was the

two-state solution which I think was the best alternative here it it's

best alternative here it it's

best alternative here it it's complicated and I I wonder if you can

complicated and I I wonder if you can

complicated and I I wonder if you can comment on the complexity of this

comment on the complexity of this

comment on the complexity of this because criticizing Israel and you know

because criticizing Israel and you know

because criticizing Israel and you know criticizing the

criticizing the

criticizing the lobby can

lobby can

lobby can um for a lot of people be a dog whistle

um for a lot of people be a dog whistle

um for a lot of people be a dog whistle for sort of anti-Semitic conspiracy

for sort of anti-Semitic conspiracy

for sort of anti-Semitic conspiracy theories that you know this idea that

theories that you know this idea that

theories that you know this idea that Jews run everything run the world

Jews run everything run the world

Jews run everything run the world they're this kind of

they're this kind of

they're this kind of cabal and you know

cabal and you know

cabal and you know it's it's also very true that people who

it's it's also very true that people who

it's it's also very true that people who are legitimately

are legitimately

are legitimately anti-semitic are also critics of Israel

anti-semitic are also critics of Israel

anti-semitic are also critics of Israel in the same kind of way and so it's such

in the same kind of way and so it's such

in the same kind of way and so it's such a complicated landscape in which to have

a complicated landscape in which to have

a complicated landscape in which to have discussions because

discussions because

discussions because um uh you know even people like David

um uh you know even people like David

um uh you know even people like David Duke uh who are you know racist don't

Duke uh who are you know racist don't

Duke uh who are you know racist don't sound racist on the

sound racist on the

sound racist on the surface I haven't listened to him enough

surface I haven't listened to him enough

surface I haven't listened to him enough but like you know there's dog whistles

but like you know there's dog whistles

but like you know there's dog whistles it's it's a complicated space in which

it's it's a complicated space in which

it's it's a complicated space in which to have

to have

to have discussions because it um I mean I

discussions because it um I mean I

discussions because it um I mean I wonder if you can sort of speak to

wonder if you can sort of speak to

wonder if you can sort of speak to that um because there's this silencing

that um because there's this silencing

that um because there's this silencing effect of calling everybody into Semitic

effect of calling everybody into Semitic

effect of calling everybody into Semitic but it's also true that there is

but it's also true that there is

but it's also true that there is anti-Semitism in the world like there is

anti-Semitism in the world like there is

anti-Semitism in the world like there is a sizable population of people that hate

a sizable population of people that hate

a sizable population of people that hate Jews there's probably a sizable

Jews there's probably a sizable

Jews there's probably a sizable population of people who hate Muslims

population of people who hate Muslims

population of people who hate Muslims too

too

too but you know I lot of hate out there a

but you know I lot of hate out there a

but you know I lot of hate out there a lot of hate out there uh but the hatred

lot of hate out there uh but the hatred

lot of hate out there uh but the hatred of Jews has like a long history and so

of Jews has like a long history and so

of Jews has like a long history and so you have like you know Rolling Stones

you have like you know Rolling Stones

you have like you know Rolling Stones have a a set of great hits and there's

have a a set of great hits and there's

have a a set of great hits and there's just a set of great hits of the ways

just a set of great hits of the ways

just a set of great hits of the ways conspiracy theories you can make up

conspiracy theories you can make up

conspiracy theories you can make up about the Jews that are used as part of

about the Jews that are used as part of

about the Jews that are used as part of the hatred uh so there's like nice

the hatred uh so there's like nice

the hatred uh so there's like nice templates for that and I I just wonder

templates for that and I I just wonder

templates for that and I I just wonder if you can comment

if you can comment

if you can comment on operating as a historian as an

on operating as a historian as an

on operating as a historian as an analyst as a strategic thinker in this

analyst as a strategic thinker in this

analyst as a strategic thinker in this kind of space yeah we obviously when we

kind of space yeah we obviously when we

kind of space yeah we obviously when we wrote the article which we did before

wrote the article which we did before

wrote the article which we did before the book gave the subject a great deal

the book gave the subject a great deal

the book gave the subject a great deal of thought I mean uh what you say just

of thought I mean uh what you say just

of thought I mean uh what you say just now is music to our ears I'm talking for

now is music to our ears I'm talking for

now is music to our ears I'm talking for me and about me and Steve uh I mean I

me and about me and Steve uh I mean I

me and about me and Steve uh I mean I think that you know your point about dog

think that you know your point about dog

think that you know your point about dog whistles is

correct look we went to Great Lengths to

correct look we went to Great Lengths to

correct look we went to Great Lengths to make it clear that

make it clear that

make it clear that this is not a cabal it's not a

this is not a cabal it's not a

this is not a cabal it's not a conspiracy and in fact in a very

conspiracy and in fact in a very

conspiracy and in fact in a very important way the lobby operates out in

important way the lobby operates out in

important way the lobby operates out in the open right

the open right

the open right uh they brag about their power right and

uh they brag about their power right and

uh they brag about their power right and this was true before we wrote the

this was true before we wrote the

this was true before we wrote the article right and um and we

article right and um and we

article right and um and we said in the article and the book and you

said in the article and the book and you

said in the article and the book and you heard me say it here first of all it's

heard me say it here first of all it's

heard me say it here first of all it's not a Jewish law

not a Jewish law

not a Jewish law right um secondly it's not a cabal right

right um secondly it's not a cabal right

right um secondly it's not a cabal right it's an American interest group and and

it's an American interest group and and

it's an American interest group and and the American system is designed such

the American system is designed such

the American system is designed such that interest groups are perfectly legal

that interest groups are perfectly legal

that interest groups are perfectly legal and some of them are super effective EXA

and some of them are super effective EXA

and some of them are super effective EXA I mean you hit the nail right on the

I mean you hit the nail right on the

I mean you hit the nail right on the head that's exactly right

head that's exactly right

head that's exactly right and you know and there was nothing that

and you know and there was nothing that

and you know and there was nothing that we said that was

we said that was

we said that was anti-semitic by any reasonable

anti-semitic by any reasonable

anti-semitic by any reasonable definition of that term and you know

definition of that term and you know

definition of that term and you know huge numbers of Jews have known me and

huge numbers of Jews have known me and

huge numbers of Jews have known me and Steve over the years and nobody ever

Steve over the years and nobody ever

Steve over the years and nobody ever ever said that we were anti-semitic

ever said that we were anti-semitic

ever said that we were anti-semitic before March 2006 when the article

before March 2006 when the article

before March 2006 when the article appeared because we're not

appeared because we're not

appeared because we're not anti-semitic but look you've got this

anti-semitic but look you've got this

anti-semitic but look you've got this interest group right that has a

interest group right that has a

interest group right that has a significant influence on American

significant influence on American

significant influence on American policy and on Israeli policy

policy and on Israeli policy

policy and on Israeli policy and you want to talk about it it's just

and you want to talk about it it's just

and you want to talk about it it's just important to talk about it it's

important to talk about it it's

important to talk about it it's important for Jews right in the United

important for Jews right in the United

important for Jews right in the United States for Jews and Israel to talk about

States for Jews and Israel to talk about

States for Jews and Israel to talk about this the idea that you want to silence

this the idea that you want to silence

this the idea that you want to silence critics is not a smart way to go about

critics is not a smart way to go about

critics is not a smart way to go about doing business in my

doing business in my

doing business in my opinion if we were wrong if Steve and I

opinion if we were wrong if Steve and I

opinion if we were wrong if Steve and I were so wrong and their arguments were

were so wrong and their arguments were

were so wrong and their arguments were so foul they could have easily exposed

so foul they could have easily exposed

so foul they could have easily exposed those arguments they could have gone uh

those arguments they could have gone uh

those arguments they could have gone uh into combat with this in terms of the

into combat with this in terms of the

into combat with this in terms of the marketplace of ideas and easily knocked

marketplace of ideas and easily knocked

marketplace of ideas and easily knocked us down the problem was that our

us down the problem was that our

us down the problem was that our arguments were quite powerful and

arguments were quite powerful and

arguments were quite powerful and instead of engaging us and defeating our

instead of engaging us and defeating our

instead of engaging us and defeating our arguments they wanted to silence us and

arguments they wanted to silence us and

arguments they wanted to silence us and this is not good right it's not good for

this is not good right it's not good for

this is not good right it's not good for Israel it's not good for the United

Israel it's not good for the United

Israel it's not good for the United States and I would argue in the end if

States and I would argue in the end if

States and I would argue in the end if anything it's going to fall Foster

anything it's going to fall Foster

anything it's going to fall Foster anti-Semitism I think you don't want to

anti-Semitism I think you don't want to

anti-Semitism I think you don't want to run around telling people that they

run around telling people that they

run around telling people that they can't talk about Israel without being

can't talk about Israel without being

can't talk about Israel without being called an anti-semite it's just not it's

called an anti-semite it's just not it's

called an anti-semite it's just not it's not healthy uh in terms of the issue

not healthy uh in terms of the issue

not healthy uh in terms of the issue that you're raising right but I still

that you're raising right but I still

that you're raising right but I still agree with you that it is a tricky issue

agree with you that it is a tricky issue

agree with you that it is a tricky issue it's I I don't want to make light of

it's I I don't want to make light of

it's I I don't want to make light of that you know I know that there's this

that you know I know that there's this

that you know I know that there's this piece of literature out there called the

piece of literature out there called the

piece of literature out there called the protocols of the Elders of Zion and I

protocols of the Elders of Zion and I

protocols of the Elders of Zion and I fully understand that if you're not

fully understand that if you're not

fully understand that if you're not careful you can come close to writing

careful you can come close to writing

careful you can come close to writing volume two of the protocol but I don't

volume two of the protocol but I don't

volume two of the protocol but I don't believe that we wrote anything that was

believe that we wrote anything that was

believe that we wrote anything that was even close to that and again I think

even close to that and again I think

even close to that and again I think that a healthy debate on the issues that

that a healthy debate on the issues that

that a healthy debate on the issues that we were raising would have been in not

we were raising would have been in not

we were raising would have been in not only in America's interest but it would

only in America's interest but it would

only in America's interest but it would have been in Israel's

have been in Israel's

have been in Israel's interest yeah I mean um Underneath It

interest yeah I mean um Underneath It

interest yeah I mean um Underneath It All is just I wonder why there's so much

All is just I wonder why there's so much

All is just I wonder why there's so much hate against groups why it's such a

hate against groups why it's such a

hate against groups why it's such a sticky way of

sticky way of

sticky way of thinking not just tribalism like proud

thinking not just tribalism like proud

thinking not just tribalism like proud of your country and kind of hating

of your country and kind of hating

of your country and kind of hating another country but really deeply hating

another country but really deeply hating

another country but really deeply hating like hating in a way where it's part of

like hating in a way where it's part of

like hating in a way where it's part of your identity kind of

your identity kind of

your identity kind of hate well just to make a general point

hate well just to make a general point

hate well just to make a general point on this issue in our conversation here

on this issue in our conversation here

on this issue in our conversation here today you often talk about individual

today you often talk about individual

today you often talk about individual leaders and the word individual often

leaders and the word individual often

leaders and the word individual often pops up in your vocabulary yes I believe

pops up in your vocabulary yes I believe

pops up in your vocabulary yes I believe that we are ultimately social animals

that we are ultimately social animals

that we are ultimately social animals before we are individuals I believe

before we are individuals I believe

before we are individuals I believe we're born into tribes we're heavily

we're born into tribes we're heavily

we're born into tribes we're heavily socialized and that we carve out space

socialized and that we carve out space

socialized and that we carve out space for our

for our

for our individualism but we are part of tribes

individualism but we are part of tribes

individualism but we are part of tribes and or social groups or nations call

and or social groups or nations call

and or social groups or nations call them what you want ethnic groups

them what you want ethnic groups

them what you want ethnic groups religious groups but the fact is that

religious groups but the fact is that

religious groups but the fact is that these tribes often crash into each other

these tribes often crash into each other

these tribes often crash into each other and when they crash into each other uh

and when they crash into each other uh

and when they crash into each other uh they end up hating each other uh if you

they end up hating each other uh if you

they end up hating each other uh if you go to a place like Bosnia right the

go to a place like Bosnia right the

go to a place like Bosnia right the croats and the serbs oh my God and then

croats and the serbs oh my God and then

croats and the serbs oh my God and then throw in the

throw in the

throw in the bosniacs which is the term for Bosnian

bosniacs which is the term for Bosnian

bosniacs which is the term for Bosnian Muslims and you know Muslims croats

Muslims and you know Muslims croats

Muslims and you know Muslims croats serbs uh oh and uh the tribes you know

serbs uh oh and uh the tribes you know

serbs uh oh and uh the tribes you know hate each other uh and uh in a funny way

hate each other uh and uh in a funny way

hate each other uh and uh in a funny way that hatred almost never goes away uh

that hatred almost never goes away uh

that hatred almost never goes away uh and uh I guess there are some exceptions

and uh I guess there are some exceptions

and uh I guess there are some exceptions to that uh if you look at the Germans

to that uh if you look at the Germans

to that uh if you look at the Germans after World War II they've gone a long

after World War II they've gone a long

after World War II they've gone a long way towards reducing I wouldn't want to

way towards reducing I wouldn't want to

way towards reducing I wouldn't want to say completely eliminating but reducing

say completely eliminating but reducing

say completely eliminating but reducing a lot of the hatred uh that existed

a lot of the hatred uh that existed

a lot of the hatred uh that existed between Germans and their

between Germans and their

between Germans and their neighbors uh but that's really kind of

neighbors uh but that's really kind of

neighbors uh but that's really kind of an anomalous case uh I mean you go

an anomalous case uh I mean you go

an anomalous case uh I mean you go around East Asia today and the hatred of

around East Asia today and the hatred of

around East Asia today and the hatred of Japan in a place like China the hatred

Japan in a place like China the hatred

Japan in a place like China the hatred of Japan in a place like Korea just not

of Japan in a place like Korea just not

of Japan in a place like Korea just not to be

to be

to be underestimated and uh so but I think a

underestimated and uh so but I think a

underestimated and uh so but I think a lot of it just has to do with the fact

lot of it just has to do with the fact

lot of it just has to do with the fact that you're dealing with social groups

that you're dealing with social groups

that you're dealing with social groups that have crashed into each other uh at

that have crashed into each other uh at

that have crashed into each other uh at one point or another and there are those

one point or another and there are those

one point or another and there are those lingering effects and by the way this

lingering effects and by the way this

lingering effects and by the way this gets back to our discussion a few

gets back to our discussion a few

gets back to our discussion a few minutes ago about trying to get a

minutes ago about trying to get a

minutes ago about trying to get a two-state solution between the

two-state solution between the

two-state solution between the Palestinians and the isra Jews now that

Palestinians and the isra Jews now that

Palestinians and the isra Jews now that you have had uh this horrible War which

you have had uh this horrible War which

you have had uh this horrible War which is

is

is ongoing it's

ongoing it's

ongoing it's interesting to ask to go back to World

interesting to ask to go back to World

interesting to ask to go back to World War II now you said uh you studied Nazi

War II now you said uh you studied Nazi

War II now you said uh you studied Nazi Germany in in the 30s from a perspective

Germany in in the 30s from a perspective

Germany in in the 30s from a perspective of

of

of maybe offensive

maybe offensive

maybe offensive realism uh but just to look at the

realism uh but just to look at the

realism uh but just to look at the Holocaust it's sometimes popular in

Holocaust it's sometimes popular in

Holocaust it's sometimes popular in public discourse today to compare

public discourse today to compare

public discourse today to compare certain things to the Holocaust people

certain things to the Holocaust people

certain things to the Holocaust people have compared the Hamas attack on Israel

have compared the Hamas attack on Israel

have compared the Hamas attack on Israel to the

to the

to the Holocaust saying things like it's the

Holocaust saying things like it's the

Holocaust saying things like it's the the

the

the biggest attack on Jews since the

biggest attack on Jews since the

biggest attack on Jews since the Holocaust which kind

Holocaust which kind

Holocaust which kind of

of

of implies that there's a comparison U

implies that there's a comparison U

implies that there's a comparison U people have made that same comparison in

people have made that same comparison in

people have made that same comparison in the other

the other

the other direction what do you make of this

direction what do you make of this

direction what do you make of this comparison is it comparable is it is the

comparison is it comparable is it is the

comparison is it comparable is it is the use of the

use of the

use of the Holocaust uh have any accuracy in

Holocaust uh have any accuracy in

Holocaust uh have any accuracy in comparisons of modern day international

politics is it possible that you could

politics is it possible that you could

politics is it possible that you could have another

have another

have another genocide yes and I would argue that what

genocide yes and I would argue that what

genocide yes and I would argue that what you had in Rwanda was a

you had in Rwanda was a

you had in Rwanda was a genocide right the Holocaust is not the

genocide right the Holocaust is not the

genocide right the Holocaust is not the only

only

only genocide I believe the word genocide is

genocide I believe the word genocide is

genocide I believe the word genocide is used too Loosely today

used too Loosely today

used too Loosely today uh and as you know lots of people and I

uh and as you know lots of people and I

uh and as you know lots of people and I mean lots of people who are pro

mean lots of people who are pro

mean lots of people who are pro Palestinian accuse the Israelis of

Palestinian accuse the Israelis of

Palestinian accuse the Israelis of engaging in genocide in Gaza I think

engaging in genocide in Gaza I think

engaging in genocide in Gaza I think what the Israelis are doing in Gaza uh

what the Israelis are doing in Gaza uh

what the Israelis are doing in Gaza uh represents a massacre I I would use that

represents a massacre I I would use that

represents a massacre I I would use that term given the number of civilians that

term given the number of civilians that

term given the number of civilians that they've killed and the fact that they've

they've killed and the fact that they've

they've killed and the fact that they've been indiscriminate in terms of how

been indiscriminate in terms of how

been indiscriminate in terms of how they've been bombing Gaza but I would

they've been bombing Gaza but I would

they've been bombing Gaza but I would not not use the word

not not use the word

not not use the word genocide uh for me a genocide is where

genocide uh for me a genocide is where

genocide uh for me a genocide is where one side attempts to eliminate another

one side attempts to eliminate another

one side attempts to eliminate another group from the planet uh I think that

group from the planet uh I think that

group from the planet uh I think that what happened with the Holocaust was

what happened with the Holocaust was

what happened with the Holocaust was clearly a genocide and that the Germans

clearly a genocide and that the Germans

clearly a genocide and that the Germans were bent uh on destroying all of

were bent uh on destroying all of

were bent uh on destroying all of European jewry and if they could have

European jewry and if they could have

European jewry and if they could have gotten their hands on uh Jews outside of

gotten their hands on uh Jews outside of

gotten their hands on uh Jews outside of Europe they would have murdered them as

Europe they would have murdered them as

Europe they would have murdered them as well that's a gen side and I think with

well that's a gen side and I think with

well that's a gen side and I think with the hutus and the tootsies you had a

the hutus and the tootsies you had a

the hutus and the tootsies you had a similar situation uh I think with the

similar situation uh I think with the

similar situation uh I think with the Turks and the Armenians during World War

Turks and the Armenians during World War

Turks and the Armenians during World War I that was a genocide but I have a

I that was a genocide but I have a

I that was a genocide but I have a rather narrow definition of what a

rather narrow definition of what a

rather narrow definition of what a genocide is and I don't think they're

genocide is and I don't think they're

genocide is and I don't think they're many cases that qualify as a genocide

many cases that qualify as a genocide

many cases that qualify as a genocide the Holocaust certainly does okay

the Holocaust certainly does okay

the Holocaust certainly does okay now what Hamas did doesn't even come

now what Hamas did doesn't even come

now what Hamas did doesn't even come close to what happened to European jeury

close to what happened to European jeury

close to what happened to European jeury between let's say

between let's say

between let's say 1939 uh and 1945 although I date the

1939 uh and 1945 although I date the

1939 uh and 1945 although I date the start of the Holocaust to

start of the Holocaust to

start of the Holocaust to 1941 if we were you know looking at it

1941 if we were you know looking at it

1941 if we were you know looking at it closely but let's just say 1939 when

closely but let's just say 1939 when

closely but let's just say 1939 when they invade Poland 1939 to

they invade Poland 1939 to

they invade Poland 1939 to 1945

1945

1945 whated Pals in comparison it's hard to

whated Pals in comparison it's hard to

whated Pals in comparison it's hard to believe anybody would make that argument

believe anybody would make that argument

believe anybody would make that argument right yes a lot of Jews died uh but uh

right yes a lot of Jews died uh but uh

right yes a lot of Jews died uh but uh uh

uh

uh hardly

hardly

hardly uh hardly any compared to the number

uh hardly any compared to the number

uh hardly any compared to the number that died uh you know at the hands of

that died uh you know at the hands of

that died uh you know at the hands of the Germans I mean it just no parallel

the Germans I mean it just no parallel

the Germans I mean it just no parallel at all uh and furthermore Hamas was in

at all uh and furthermore Hamas was in

at all uh and furthermore Hamas was in no position to kill all the Jews in the

no position to kill all the Jews in the

no position to kill all the Jews in the Middle East just not not going to happen

Middle East just not not going to happen

Middle East just not not going to happen yeah but there's also levels of things

yeah but there's also levels of things

yeah but there's also levels of things you know using uh Germans using uh human

you know using uh Germans using uh human

you know using uh Germans using uh human skin for lamps there's just levels of

skin for lamps there's just levels of

skin for lamps there's just levels of evil in this world yes but you don't see

evil in this world yes but you don't see

evil in this world yes but you don't see that with I mean that's not what Hamas

that with I mean that's not what Hamas

that with I mean that's not what Hamas is doing I mean I I I want to be very

is doing I mean I I I want to be very

is doing I mean I I I want to be very clear here I am not justifying the kill

clear here I am not justifying the kill

clear here I am not justifying the kill hamas's killing of civilians okay not

hamas's killing of civilians okay not

hamas's killing of civilians okay not for one second but I'm just saying and

for one second but I'm just saying and

for one second but I'm just saying and and and by the way just to go to the

and and by the way just to go to the

and and by the way just to go to the Israelis and what they're doing in Gaza

Israelis and what they're doing in Gaza

Israelis and what they're doing in Gaza right as I said to you before I do

right as I said to you before I do

right as I said to you before I do believe that is a massacre and I believe

believe that is a massacre and I believe

believe that is a massacre and I believe that's to be condemned the killing of

that's to be condemned the killing of

that's to be condemned the killing of civilians

civilians

civilians uh this is not legitimate collateral

uh this is not legitimate collateral

uh this is not legitimate collateral damage they're directly punishing the

damage they're directly punishing the

damage they're directly punishing the population but I would not call that a

population but I would not call that a

population but I would not call that a genocide right and I would not compare

genocide right and I would not compare

genocide right and I would not compare that to the Holocaust for for one second

that to the Holocaust for for one second

that to the Holocaust for for one second I just want to be very clear on that do

I just want to be very clear on that do

I just want to be very clear on that do you think uh if Israel could they would

you think uh if Israel could they would

you think uh if Israel could they would avoid the death of any

avoid the death of any

avoid the death of any civilians so you're saying there's some

civilians so you're saying there's some

civilians so you're saying there's some degree of punishment of collective

degree of punishment of collective

degree of punishment of collective they're purposely killing civilians it's

they're purposely killing civilians it's

they're purposely killing civilians it's this the Iron Wall they're trying to

this the Iron Wall they're trying to

this the Iron Wall they're trying to beat the Palestinians in the

beat the Palestinians in the

beat the Palestinians in the submission

submission

submission right there's no way you kill this many

right there's no way you kill this many

right there's no way you kill this many civilians

civilians

civilians um if you're trying to precisely take

um if you're trying to precisely take

um if you're trying to precisely take out Hamas Fighters and by the way the

out Hamas Fighters and by the way the

out Hamas Fighters and by the way the Israeli spokesman the IDF spokesman has

Israeli spokesman the IDF spokesman has

Israeli spokesman the IDF spokesman has explicitly said that we are not pursuing

explicitly said that we are not pursuing

explicitly said that we are not pursuing Precision bombing and that what we are

Precision bombing and that what we are

Precision bombing and that what we are doing is trying to you know maximize the

doing is trying to you know maximize the

doing is trying to you know maximize the amount of Destruction and damage uh that

amount of Destruction and damage uh that

amount of Destruction and damage uh that we can inflict on the

we can inflict on the

we can inflict on the Palestinians and uh I I I think this is

Palestinians and uh I I I think this is

Palestinians and uh I I I think this is a major mistake on the part of Israel

a major mistake on the part of Israel

a major mistake on the part of Israel first of all it ends up being a moral

first of all it ends up being a moral

first of all it ends up being a moral stain on your reputation number one and

stain on your reputation number one and

stain on your reputation number one and number two it doesn't work it doesn't

number two it doesn't work it doesn't

number two it doesn't work it doesn't work the the Palestinians are not going

work the the Palestinians are not going

work the the Palestinians are not going to roll over and submit to uh Israeli

to roll over and submit to uh Israeli

to roll over and submit to uh Israeli domination of their life uh um so you

domination of their life uh um so you

domination of their life uh um so you know the whole concept of the Iron Wall

know the whole concept of the Iron Wall

know the whole concept of the Iron Wall gabatin Sky's term was

gabatin Sky's term was

gabatin Sky's term was misguided um and and and by the way the

misguided um and and and by the way the

misguided um and and and by the way the iron if you look at what the Israelis

iron if you look at what the Israelis

iron if you look at what the Israelis are doing they're trying to do two

are doing they're trying to do two

are doing they're trying to do two things one is the iron wall and that's

things one is the iron wall and that's

things one is the iron wall and that's where you punish the civilian population

where you punish the civilian population

where you punish the civilian population in Gaza and get them to submit the other

in Gaza and get them to submit the other

in Gaza and get them to submit the other thing that they're trying to do is get

thing that they're trying to do is get

thing that they're trying to do is get Hamas they want to destroy Hamas and the

Hamas they want to destroy Hamas and the

Hamas they want to destroy Hamas and the belief there is that if they destroy

belief there is that if they destroy

belief there is that if they destroy Hamas they've solved the problem but as

Hamas they've solved the problem but as

Hamas they've solved the problem but as many Israelis no including people on the

many Israelis no including people on the

many Israelis no including people on the hard right even if you destroy Hamas

hard right even if you destroy Hamas

hard right even if you destroy Hamas they are going to be replaced by another

they are going to be replaced by another

they are going to be replaced by another group another resistance group uh and

group another resistance group uh and

group another resistance group uh and that resistance group will employ Terror

that resistance group will employ Terror

that resistance group will employ Terror yeah I think you I think you've said

yeah I think you I think you've said

yeah I think you I think you've said that uh other terrorist organizations

that uh other terrorist organizations

that uh other terrorist organizations have used the situation in Palestine as

have used the situation in Palestine as

have used the situation in Palestine as a as a kind of a recruit recruitment

a as a kind of a recruit recruitment

a as a kind of a recruit recruitment mechanism for for a long time Osama bin

mechanism for for a long time Osama bin

mechanism for for a long time Osama bin lad made it clear that this was one of

lad made it clear that this was one of

lad made it clear that this was one of those principal reasons for attacking

those principal reasons for attacking

those principal reasons for attacking the United States right and the United

the United States right and the United

the United States right and the United States attacked back and uh got us into

States attacked back and uh got us into

States attacked back and uh got us into a 20-year war that

a 20-year war that

a 20-year war that cost the lives of millions of people not

cost the lives of millions of people not

cost the lives of millions of people not not American but uh human

not American but uh human

not American but uh human beings and uh engaged in torture and

beings and uh engaged in torture and

beings and uh engaged in torture and torture yeah no I think if you look at

torture yeah no I think if you look at

torture yeah no I think if you look at how we reacted to

how we reacted to

how we reacted to 9/11 and how the Israelis are reacting

9/11 and how the Israelis are reacting

9/11 and how the Israelis are reacting to what happened on October 7th uh

to what happened on October 7th uh

to what happened on October 7th uh there's uh quite a bit of similarity in

there's uh quite a bit of similarity in

there's uh quite a bit of similarity in that both sides the Israeli side and the

that both sides the Israeli side and the

that both sides the Israeli side and the American side uh are enraged right and

American side uh are enraged right and

American side uh are enraged right and they lash out and they go on a

they lash out and they go on a

they lash out and they go on a rampage and the end result is not good

rampage and the end result is not good

rampage and the end result is not good is there capacity within Israel or with

is there capacity within Israel or with

is there capacity within Israel or with within United States after

within United States after

within United States after 911 to do something approximating turn

911 to do something approximating turn

911 to do something approximating turn the other

the other

the other cheek

cheek

cheek of understanding the root of Terror is

of understanding the root of Terror is

of understanding the root of Terror is hate and fighting that hate

hate and fighting that hate

hate and fighting that hate with uh not the S naive but

with uh not the S naive but

with uh not the S naive but compassion well I I don't think in

compassion well I I don't think in

compassion well I I don't think in either case you're going to turn the

either case you're going to turn the

either case you're going to turn the other cheek uh I think well some I what

other cheek uh I think well some I what

other cheek uh I think well some I what I mean by that is some some limited

I mean by that is some some limited

I mean by that is some some limited powerful military response but very

powerful military response but very

powerful military response but very limited yeah coupled with a smart

limited yeah coupled with a smart

limited yeah coupled with a smart political strategy political strategy

political strategy political strategy

political strategy political strategy diplomacy yeah that's what they should

diplomacy yeah that's what they should

diplomacy yeah that's what they should have done yeah right but is there

have done yeah right but is there

have done yeah right but is there capacity for that or from your offensive

capacity for that or from your offensive

capacity for that or from your offensive realism perspective it's just the odds

realism perspective it's just the odds

realism perspective it's just the odds are really

are really

are really low no from my offensive realist

low no from my offensive realist

low no from my offensive realist perspective or my realist perspective

perspective or my realist perspective

perspective or my realist perspective that's what you should do right my my

that's what you should do right my my

that's what you should do right my my view is states are rational actors they

view is states are rational actors they

view is states are rational actors they should be cunning right they should

should be cunning right they should

should be cunning right they should think about uh the Strategic situation

think about uh the Strategic situation

think about uh the Strategic situation they're in and choose the appropriate

they're in and choose the appropriate

they're in and choose the appropriate response and uh what happens and this is

response and uh what happens and this is

response and uh what happens and this is why my theory is not always correct is

why my theory is not always correct is

why my theory is not always correct is that sometimes states are not rational

that sometimes states are not rational

that sometimes states are not rational and they

and they

and they misbehave I would argue in the Israeli

misbehave I would argue in the Israeli

misbehave I would argue in the Israeli case uh that it would have been good

case uh that it would have been good

case uh that it would have been good after October 7th or starting on October

after October 7th or starting on October

after October 7th or starting on October 7th if the United States

7th if the United States

7th if the United States had uh tried to hold the Israelis back

had uh tried to hold the Israelis back

had uh tried to hold the Israelis back and

and

and countenanced uh a more uh moderate

countenanced uh a more uh moderate

countenanced uh a more uh moderate response more with uh to to SP take some

response more with uh to to SP take some

response more with uh to to SP take some time just to think about how to deal

time just to think about how to deal

time just to think about how to deal with this problem instead of lashing out

with this problem instead of lashing out

with this problem instead of lashing out I I think given what happened to the

I I think given what happened to the

I I think given what happened to the Israelis given how shocked they were

Israelis given how shocked they were

Israelis given how shocked they were given the level of fear given the level

given the level of fear given the level

given the level of fear given the level of Rage they were going to lash out and

of Rage they were going to lash out and

of Rage they were going to lash out and I don't believe that was in their

I don't believe that was in their

I don't believe that was in their interest I think it would have been made

interest I think it would have been made

interest I think it would have been made would have made sense to to think about

would have made sense to to think about

would have made sense to to think about it and to think about a smarter strategy

it and to think about a smarter strategy

it and to think about a smarter strategy than they're now employing and I think

than they're now employing and I think

than they're now employing and I think you know the Americans blew it the

you know the Americans blew it the

you know the Americans blew it the Americans gave them a bare hug and a

Americans gave them a bare hug and a

Americans gave them a bare hug and a green light and said we'll give you all

green light and said we'll give you all

green light and said we'll give you all the Weaponry you need and go out and do

the Weaponry you need and go out and do

the Weaponry you need and go out and do it and uh I don't think that was the

it and uh I don't think that was the

it and uh I don't think that was the smart thing to do look in the wake of

smart thing to do look in the wake of

smart thing to do look in the wake of October 7th the Israelis had no good

October 7th the Israelis had no good

October 7th the Israelis had no good strategy right it's it's not like

strategy right it's it's not like

strategy right it's it's not like there's a magic formula that they just

there's a magic formula that they just

there's a magic formula that they just didn't see and we should have told them

didn't see and we should have told them

didn't see and we should have told them what the magic formula was right that's

what the magic formula was right that's

what the magic formula was right that's not true they were in a sense caught

not true they were in a sense caught

not true they were in a sense caught between IR rock and a hard place in

between IR rock and a hard place in

between IR rock and a hard place in terms of what to do but there's smarter

terms of what to do but there's smarter

terms of what to do but there's smarter things and Dumber things and I think the

Israelis lashed out in ways that are

Israelis lashed out in ways that are

Israelis lashed out in ways that are counterproductive I think you know going

counterproductive I think you know going

counterproductive I think you know going on a rampage and you know killing huge

on a rampage and you know killing huge

on a rampage and you know killing huge number the civilians is not it's

number the civilians is not it's

number the civilians is not it's obviously morally wrong but it's also

obviously morally wrong but it's also

obviously morally wrong but it's also just not in their strategic interest

just not in their strategic interest

just not in their strategic interest right I mean uh because it's it's not

right I mean uh because it's it's not

right I mean uh because it's it's not going to buy them anything right and in

going to buy them anything right and in

going to buy them anything right and in fact it's going to cost them right

fact it's going to cost them right

fact it's going to cost them right because people all over the planet are

because people all over the planet are

because people all over the planet are turning against Israel uh I saw you know

turning against Israel uh I saw you know

turning against Israel uh I saw you know an Israeli think tank today uh that has

an Israeli think tank today uh that has

an Israeli think tank today uh that has been tracking uh protest around the

been tracking uh protest around the

been tracking uh protest around the world um gave some figures for what it

world um gave some figures for what it

world um gave some figures for what it looked like uh between October 7th and

looked like uh between October 7th and

looked like uh between October 7th and October 13th in terms of the number of

October 13th in terms of the number of

October 13th in terms of the number of uh protests around the world that were

uh protests around the world that were

uh protests around the world that were pro-israel versus Pro Palestine and then

pro-israel versus Pro Palestine and then

pro-israel versus Pro Palestine and then it looked at the numbers from U October

it looked at the numbers from U October

it looked at the numbers from U October 13th up to the present and I think the

13th up to the present and I think the

13th up to the present and I think the numbers were 69% were Pro Palestinian in

numbers were 69% were Pro Palestinian in

numbers were 69% were Pro Palestinian in the first six days after October 7th

the first six days after October 7th

the first six days after October 7th 69% and I think 31% take these numbers

69% and I think 31% take these numbers

69% and I think 31% take these numbers with a grain of salt 31% were pro-israel

with a grain of salt 31% were pro-israel

with a grain of salt 31% were pro-israel so I think it was 69 and

so I think it was 69 and

so I think it was 69 and 31 um and uh since then since October

31 um and uh since then since October

31 um and uh since then since October 13th if you look at the number of

13th if you look at the number of

13th if you look at the number of protests around the world 95% have been

protests around the world 95% have been

protests around the world 95% have been Pro Palestinian and 5% have been

Pro Palestinian and 5% have been

Pro Palestinian and 5% have been pro-israel uh and what this tells you is

pro-israel uh and what this tells you is

pro-israel uh and what this tells you is that public opinion around the world has

that public opinion around the world has

that public opinion around the world has shifted against Israel and if you look

shifted against Israel and if you look

shifted against Israel and if you look at some of the demonstrations in places

at some of the demonstrations in places

at some of the demonstrations in places like London and Washington DC it's truly

like London and Washington DC it's truly

like London and Washington DC it's truly amazing the number of people who are

amazing the number of people who are

amazing the number of people who are coming out in support of the

coming out in support of the

coming out in support of the Palestinians and uh all this again is

Palestinians and uh all this again is

Palestinians and uh all this again is just to support my point that it was

just to support my point that it was

just to support my point that it was just not smart for Israel to uh launch

just not smart for Israel to uh launch

just not smart for Israel to uh launch this bombing campaign right you can make

this bombing campaign right you can make

this bombing campaign right you can make an argument for going after Hamas and

an argument for going after Hamas and

an argument for going after Hamas and doing it in a c surgical way or as

doing it in a c surgical way or as

doing it in a c surgical way or as surgical a way as possible uh but uh

surgical a way as possible uh but uh

surgical a way as possible uh but uh that's not what they did and again my

that's not what they did and again my

that's not what they did and again my point to you is I think that this

point to you is I think that this

point to you is I think that this punishment campaign is not going to work

punishment campaign is not going to work

punishment campaign is not going to work strategically in other words they're not

strategically in other words they're not

strategically in other words they're not going to beat the Palestinians into

going to beat the Palestinians into

going to beat the Palestinians into submission they're not going to finish

submission they're not going to finish

submission they're not going to finish off Hamas and at the same time by

off Hamas and at the same time by

off Hamas and at the same time by pursuing this strategy they're doing

pursuing this strategy they're doing

pursuing this strategy they're doing huge damage to their reputation around

huge damage to their reputation around

huge damage to their reputation around the world well I just uh yeah in the

the world well I just uh yeah in the

the world well I just uh yeah in the wake of October

7th given the geopolitical

7th given the geopolitical

7th given the geopolitical context I think there's a lot of

context I think there's a lot of

context I think there's a lot of Leverage to be the great ethical

Leverage to be the great ethical

Leverage to be the great ethical superpower that that demonstrate power

superpower that that demonstrate power

superpower that that demonstrate power without killing any

without killing any

without killing any civilians and use that leverage

civilians and use that leverage

civilians and use that leverage diplomatic leverage to push forward

diplomatic leverage to push forward

diplomatic leverage to push forward something like abrahamic Accords with

something like abrahamic Accords with

something like abrahamic Accords with more nations with with Saudi Arabia push

more nations with with Saudi Arabia push

more nations with with Saudi Arabia push for peace aggressively peace agreements

for peace aggressively peace agreements

for peace aggressively peace agreements this kind of stuff economic

this kind of stuff economic

this kind of stuff economic relationships all this kind of

relationships all this kind of

relationships all this kind of stuff and thereby pressure the

stuff and thereby pressure the

stuff and thereby pressure the Palestinian Authority you know towards

Palestinian Authority you know towards

Palestinian Authority you know towards um perhaps a two-state

um perhaps a two-state

um perhaps a two-state solution but I think what you're missing

solution but I think what you're missing

solution but I think what you're missing here just in the Israeli case is that

here just in the Israeli case is that

here just in the Israeli case is that the Israeli government is not interested

the Israeli government is not interested

the Israeli government is not interested in the two-state solution and you want

in the two-state solution and you want

in the two-state solution and you want to remember that Benjamin Netanyahu who

to remember that Benjamin Netanyahu who

to remember that Benjamin Netanyahu who looks very hawkish when you look at him

looks very hawkish when you look at him

looks very hawkish when you look at him in isolation

in isolation

in isolation doesn't look so hawkish when you look at

doesn't look so hawkish when you look at

doesn't look so hawkish when you look at him compared to the rest of the people

him compared to the rest of the people

him compared to the rest of the people in his cabinet right he he he almost

in his cabinet right he he he almost

in his cabinet right he he he almost looks like a moderate he's got a lot of

looks like a moderate he's got a lot of

looks like a moderate he's got a lot of people who are way out to the right of

people who are way out to the right of

people who are way out to the right of him

him

him and these people and this of course

and these people and this of course

and these people and this of course includes Netanyahu are not interested in

includes Netanyahu are not interested in

includes Netanyahu are not interested in the two-state solution so the question

the two-state solution so the question

the two-state solution so the question you have to ask yourself is you if

you have to ask yourself is you if

you have to ask yourself is you if you're if you're Benjamin Netanyahu and

you're if you're Benjamin Netanyahu and

you're if you're Benjamin Netanyahu and it's July 7th late the excuse me October

it's July 7th late the excuse me October

it's July 7th late the excuse me October 7th late in the day what do you do

7th late in the day what do you do

7th late in the day what do you do you're not thinking about a two-state

you're not thinking about a two-state

you're not thinking about a two-state solution you're thinking about an

solution you're thinking about an

solution you're thinking about an occupation that's not going to end and

occupation that's not going to end and

occupation that's not going to end and the question is how do you deal with the

the question is how do you deal with the

the question is how do you deal with the Palestinians given what's just happened

Palestinians given what's just happened

Palestinians given what's just happened well there's people in the cabinet and

well there's people in the cabinet and

well there's people in the cabinet and then there's history and history

then there's history and history

then there's history and history remembers great leaders and

remembers great leaders and

remembers great leaders and so uh Benjamin nyaho can look in the

so uh Benjamin nyaho can look in the

so uh Benjamin nyaho can look in the streets of Israel and see the protests

streets of Israel and see the protests

streets of Israel and see the protests and think of how history will remember

and think of how history will remember

and think of how history will remember him and I think a two-state solution is

him and I think a two-state solution is

him and I think a two-state solution is on the table for a great leader well it

on the table for a great leader well it

on the table for a great leader well it was there was he the person who was

was there was he the person who was

was there was he the person who was going to take advantage of it I don't

going to take advantage of it I don't

going to take advantage of it I don't think so but well he's a student of

think so but well he's a student of

think so but well he's a student of History well at this point the will see

History well at this point the will see

History well at this point the will see does I mean it's very at this point it's

does I mean it's very at this point it's

does I mean it's very at this point it's very difficult um like you said 95% now

very difficult um like you said 95% now

very difficult um like you said 95% now or whatever the number is of protests I

or whatever the number is of protests I

or whatever the number is of protests I think the the window in which Israel has

think the the window in which Israel has

think the the window in which Israel has the the ears of the world they can do

the the ears of the world they can do

the the ears of the world they can do the the big ethical peace act action

the the big ethical peace act action

the the big ethical peace act action towards peace is uh I think as closed or

towards peace is uh I think as closed or

towards peace is uh I think as closed or maybe there's still a Slither but it's

maybe there's still a Slither but it's

maybe there's still a Slither but it's just

just

just um uh the slippery slope of of hate is

um uh the slippery slope of of hate is

um uh the slippery slope of of hate is has taken off it's quite depressing to

has taken off it's quite depressing to

has taken off it's quite depressing to watch what's going I I agree 100%

watch what's going I I agree 100%

watch what's going I I agree 100% unequivocally depressing but you know of

unequivocally depressing but you know of

unequivocally depressing but you know of course as you talk about the the role of

course as you talk about the the role of

course as you talk about the the role of you us involvement is of critical

you us involvement is of critical

you us involvement is of critical importance here for the United

importance here for the United

importance here for the United States and the argument you make is that

States and the argument you make is that

States and the argument you make is that we should not be involved in

we should not be involved in

we should not be involved in Ukraine at least to the degree we are we

Ukraine at least to the degree we are we

Ukraine at least to the degree we are we being the United States uh and we should

being the United States uh and we should

being the United States uh and we should not be involved in Israel to the degree

not be involved in Israel to the degree

not be involved in Israel to the degree we are because it's stretching us too

we are because it's stretching us too

we are because it's stretching us too thin when uh the

thin when uh the

thin when uh the big geopolitical contender in the 21st

big geopolitical contender in the 21st

big geopolitical contender in the 21st century with the United States is

century with the United States is

century with the United States is China that is that a correct summary

China that is that a correct summary

China that is that a correct summary yeah I I I think just on Ukraine we

yeah I I I think just on Ukraine we

yeah I I I think just on Ukraine we should not have pushed Ukraine to join

should not have pushed Ukraine to join

should not have pushed Ukraine to join NATO sure uh and once the war started we

NATO sure uh and once the war started we

NATO sure uh and once the war started we should have worked overtime to shut it

should have worked overtime to shut it

should have worked overtime to shut it down immediately March Yeah March right

down immediately March Yeah March right

down immediately March Yeah March right and and you remember by the way not to

and and you remember by the way not to

and and you remember by the way not to go back to Ukraine in great

go back to Ukraine in great

go back to Ukraine in great detail in the fall early fall of 2022

detail in the fall early fall of 2022

detail in the fall early fall of 2022 the war starts February 2022 there's

the war starts February 2022 there's

the war starts February 2022 there's March 2022 which we've talked about

March 2022 which we've talked about

March 2022 which we've talked about which is in negotiations in the fall of

which is in negotiations in the fall of

which is in negotiations in the fall of 2022 I think it was in

2022 I think it was in

2022 I think it was in September uh the uh ukrainians had won

September uh the uh ukrainians had won

September uh the uh ukrainians had won two major tactical victories one in

two major tactical victories one in

two major tactical victories one in hiran and the other in harke and at that

hiran and the other in harke and at that

hiran and the other in harke and at that point in time General Millie who was the

point in time General Millie who was the

point in time General Millie who was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said now is the time to negotiate

said now is the time to negotiate

said now is the time to negotiate because this is the high watermark for

because this is the high watermark for

because this is the high watermark for the ukrainians yeah Millie understood

the ukrainians yeah Millie understood

the ukrainians yeah Millie understood that things were only going to get worse

that things were only going to get worse

that things were only going to get worse and the White House shut Millie down and

and the White House shut Millie down and

and the White House shut Millie down and said we're not negotiating so we have

said we're not negotiating so we have

said we're not negotiating so we have blown a number of opportunities here to

blown a number of opportunities here to

blown a number of opportunities here to head this problem off at the pass uh and

head this problem off at the pass uh and

head this problem off at the pass uh and uh but that's my view there and uh with

uh but that's my view there and uh with

uh but that's my view there and uh with regard to the Israelis my only point

regard to the Israelis my only point

regard to the Israelis my only point about Israel is that it would be better

about Israel is that it would be better

about Israel is that it would be better for Israel and better for the United

for Israel and better for the United

for Israel and better for the United States if we the United States were in

States if we the United States were in

States if we the United States were in was in a position the United States was

was in a position the United States was

was in a position the United States was in a position to put pressure on Israel

in a position to put pressure on Israel

in a position to put pressure on Israel from time to time

from time to time

from time to time as Steve and I say in the book we should

as Steve and I say in the book we should

as Steve and I say in the book we should be able to treat Israel like a normal

be able to treat Israel like a normal

be able to treat Israel like a normal country right the fact is that countries

country right the fact is that countries

country right the fact is that countries sometimes do stupid things this includes

sometimes do stupid things this includes

sometimes do stupid things this includes the United States and Israel and if

the United States and Israel and if

the United States and Israel and if Israel is pursuing a policy that we

Israel is pursuing a policy that we

Israel is pursuing a policy that we think is unwise we should be in a

think is unwise we should be in a

think is unwise we should be in a position where we could put pressure on

position where we could put pressure on

position where we could put pressure on Israel yeah that's our argument right

Israel yeah that's our argument right

Israel yeah that's our argument right but

but

but anyway we goofed both with regard to

anyway we goofed both with regard to

anyway we goofed both with regard to Ukraine and with regard to the Middle

Ukraine and with regard to the Middle

Ukraine and with regard to the Middle East East and we're now up to our

East East and we're now up to our

East East and we're now up to our eyeballs in alligators in both of those

eyeballs in alligators in both of those

eyeballs in alligators in both of those regions and as you describe my view this

regions and as you describe my view this

regions and as you describe my view this is not good because the area of the most

is not good because the area of the most

is not good because the area of the most strategic importance for the United

strategic importance for the United

strategic importance for the United States Today Is East Asia and that's

States Today Is East Asia and that's

States Today Is East Asia and that's because China is there and China is the

because China is there and China is the

because China is there and China is the most serious threat the United States

most serious threat the United States

most serious threat the United States faces do you think there will be a

faces do you think there will be a

faces do you think there will be a war with China in the 21st century I

war with China in the 21st century I

war with China in the 21st century I don't know uh my argument is there will

don't know uh my argument is there will

don't know uh my argument is there will be there is right now a serious security

be there is right now a serious security

be there is right now a serious security competition and uh at the same time

competition and uh at the same time

competition and uh at the same time there is a real possibility of War

there is a real possibility of War

there is a real possibility of War whether or not we avoid it is very hard

whether or not we avoid it is very hard

whether or not we avoid it is very hard to say uh I mean we did during the Cold

to say uh I mean we did during the Cold

to say uh I mean we did during the Cold War we had a serious security

War we had a serious security

War we had a serious security competition from roughly

competition from roughly

competition from roughly 1947 to

1947 to

1947 to 1989 and uh and we thankfully avoided

1989 and uh and we thankfully avoided

1989 and uh and we thankfully avoided war probably came the closest in 19 1962

war probably came the closest in 19 1962

war probably came the closest in 19 1962 with the Cuban Missile

with the Cuban Missile

with the Cuban Missile Crisis but uh we avoided it and I think

Crisis but uh we avoided it and I think

Crisis but uh we avoided it and I think we can avoid it here is it for sure no

we can avoid it here is it for sure no

we can avoid it here is it for sure no you've said that China won't move on

you've said that China won't move on

you've said that China won't move on Taiwan militarily in part because it's

Taiwan militarily in part because it's

Taiwan militarily in part because it's uh as you said amphibious operations are

uh as you said amphibious operations are

uh as you said amphibious operations are difficult why will China not move on

difficult why will China not move on

difficult why will China not move on Taiwan is in your

Taiwan is in your

Taiwan is in your sense uh in the near future well it's

sense uh in the near future well it's

sense uh in the near future well it's because there's this body of water

because there's this body of water

because there's this body of water called the the Taiwan straigh MH which

called the the Taiwan straigh MH which

called the the Taiwan straigh MH which is a big body of water and getting

is a big body of water and getting

is a big body of water and getting across water uh is very difficult unless

across water uh is very difficult unless

across water uh is very difficult unless you can walk on water so geography still

you can walk on water so geography still

you can walk on water so geography still has a role to play in the 21st century

has a role to play in the 21st century

has a role to play in the 21st century oh yeah I think geography is very

oh yeah I think geography is very

oh yeah I think geography is very important big bodies of water really

important big bodies of water really

important big bodies of water really matter yeah in an Ideal World you'd like

matter yeah in an Ideal World you'd like

matter yeah in an Ideal World you'd like to have the Pacific Ocean between you

to have the Pacific Ocean between you

to have the Pacific Ocean between you and any potential adversary you know

and any potential adversary you know

and any potential adversary you know 6,000 miles yes 6,000 miles of water

6,000 miles yes 6,000 miles of water

6,000 miles yes 6,000 miles of water hard to get across I if you're a country

hard to get across I if you're a country

hard to get across I if you're a country and I'm a country and there's land

and I'm a country and there's land

and I'm a country and there's land between us I can take my Panzer

between us I can take my Panzer

between us I can take my Panzer divisions and I can go right across the

divisions and I can go right across the

divisions and I can go right across the land and get into your country or attack

land and get into your country or attack

land and get into your country or attack your country and you of course can take

your country and you of course can take

your country and you of course can take your Panzer divisions and come across

your Panzer divisions and come across

your Panzer divisions and come across that same piece of land but if there's a

that same piece of land but if there's a

that same piece of land but if there's a big body of water between us your Panzer

big body of water between us your Panzer

big body of water between us your Panzer divisions can't go across the water and

divisions can't go across the water and

divisions can't go across the water and then the question is how do you get them

then the question is how do you get them

then the question is how do you get them across the water and that's very tricky

across the water and that's very tricky

across the water and that's very tricky and in a world we have lots of

and in a world we have lots of

and in a world we have lots of submarines and you have lots of aircraft

submarines and you have lots of aircraft

submarines and you have lots of aircraft and you have missiles that are landbased

and you have missiles that are landbased

and you have missiles that are landbased that can hit those surface ships it is

that can hit those surface ships it is

that can hit those surface ships it is very very hard to you know to attack

very very hard to you know to attack

very very hard to you know to attack across a body of water and all you have

across a body of water and all you have

across a body of water and all you have to do is think about uh Normandy you

to do is think about uh Normandy you

to do is think about uh Normandy you know the American invasion of Normandy

know the American invasion of Normandy

know the American invasion of Normandy June 6th 1944 coming in on Omaha Beach

June 6th 1944 coming in on Omaha Beach

June 6th 1944 coming in on Omaha Beach right uh oh boy that was really

right uh oh boy that was really

right uh oh boy that was really difficult but there is a growing

difficult but there is a growing

difficult but there is a growing asymmetry of military power

asymmetry of military power

asymmetry of military power there that even though it's difficult

there that even though it's difficult

there that even though it's difficult that is correct so I I guess that is

that is correct so I I guess that is

that is correct so I I guess that is correct so I recently had a conversation

correct so I recently had a conversation

correct so I recently had a conversation with Elon Musk and and he

with Elon Musk and and he

with Elon Musk and and he says

says

says that uh you know China is quite serious

that uh you know China is quite serious

that uh you know China is quite serious about the one China policy and it seems

about the one China policy and it seems

about the one China policy and it seems inevitable that Taiwan will have to be

inevitable that Taiwan will have to be

inevitable that Taiwan will have to be if you look at this pragmatically in the

if you look at this pragmatically in the

if you look at this pragmatically in the 21st century it seems inevitable that

21st century it seems inevitable that

21st century it seems inevitable that Taiwan will have to be a part of China

Taiwan will have to be a part of China

Taiwan will have to be a part of China and so we can get there either

and so we can get there either

and so we can get there either diplomatically or militarily like

diplomatically or militarily like

diplomatically or militarily like um what do you think about the

um what do you think about the

um what do you think about the inevitability of that kind of idea when

inevitability of that kind of idea when

inevitability of that kind of idea when a nation says this is a top

a nation says this is a top

a nation says this is a top priority for us

priority for us

priority for us um what do you think about them meaning

um what do you think about them meaning

um what do you think about them meaning it and what do we do about that there's

it and what do we do about that there's

it and what do we do about that there's no question it's a top priority for them

no question it's a top priority for them

no question it's a top priority for them and there's no question they mean it but

and there's no question they mean it but

and there's no question they mean it but it's also a top priority for us not to

it's also a top priority for us not to

it's also a top priority for us not to let them take Taiwan why exactly because

let them take Taiwan why exactly because

let them take Taiwan why exactly because it's an important strategic asset uh

it's an important strategic asset uh

it's an important strategic asset uh many people will say it's because

many people will say it's because

many people will say it's because taiwan's a democracy but that doesn't

taiwan's a democracy but that doesn't

taiwan's a democracy but that doesn't matter that

matter that

matter that much uh it's

much uh it's

much uh it's because uh of two strategic reasons the

because uh of two strategic reasons the

because uh of two strategic reasons the first is that uh if we were to let

first is that uh if we were to let

first is that uh if we were to let Taiwan

Taiwan

Taiwan go it would have hugely negative

go it would have hugely negative

go it would have hugely negative consequences for our alliance structure

consequences for our alliance structure

consequences for our alliance structure in East Asia to contain China we need

in East Asia to contain China we need

in East Asia to contain China we need allies we have an alliance structure and

allies we have an alliance structure and

allies we have an alliance structure and our allies Japanese South

our allies Japanese South

our allies Japanese South Koreans Filipinos

Koreans Filipinos

Koreans Filipinos Australians they're all counting on us

Australians they're all counting on us

Australians they're all counting on us to be there for them and if we say we're

to be there for them and if we say we're

to be there for them and if we say we're not going to defend Taiwan the Chinese

not going to defend Taiwan the Chinese

not going to defend Taiwan the Chinese attack they're going to say I bet if the

attack they're going to say I bet if the

attack they're going to say I bet if the Chinese attack us the Americans won't be

Chinese attack us the Americans won't be

Chinese attack us the Americans won't be there for us uh so the it have

there for us uh so the it have

there for us uh so the it have uh a damaging effect on our alliance

uh a damaging effect on our alliance

uh a damaging effect on our alliance structure which we cannot afford cuz

structure which we cannot afford cuz

structure which we cannot afford cuz because containing China is a wicked

because containing China is a wicked

because containing China is a wicked problem it's a powerful State you were

problem it's a powerful State you were

problem it's a powerful State you were getting to this before when you talked

getting to this before when you talked

getting to this before when you talked about China versus Taiwan so that's the

about China versus Taiwan so that's the

about China versus Taiwan so that's the first reason second reason is you want

first reason second reason is you want

first reason second reason is you want to bottle up the Chinese Navy and the

to bottle up the Chinese Navy and the

to bottle up the Chinese Navy and the Chinese Air Force inside the first

Chinese Air Force inside the first

Chinese Air Force inside the first island chain you don't want to let them

island chain you don't want to let them

island chain you don't want to let them get

get

get out uh into the Pacific you don't want

out uh into the Pacific you don't want

out uh into the Pacific you don't want them dominating the Waters of East Asia

them dominating the Waters of East Asia

them dominating the Waters of East Asia you want to bottle them up again inside

you want to bottle them up again inside

you want to bottle them up again inside the first island chain and you can only

the first island chain and you can only

the first island chain and you can only do that if you control Taiwan if you

do that if you control Taiwan if you

do that if you control Taiwan if you don't control Taiwan they get out into

don't control Taiwan they get out into

don't control Taiwan they get out into the Philippine Sea into the Pacific and

the Philippine Sea into the Pacific and

the Philippine Sea into the Pacific and the Western Pacific and cause all sorts

the Western Pacific and cause all sorts

the Western Pacific and cause all sorts of problems well you saying all that

of problems well you saying all that

of problems well you saying all that you've also said the century of

you've also said the century of

you've also said the century of humiliation Japan and the United States

humiliation Japan and the United States

humiliation Japan and the United States are a source of that humiliation for

are a source of that humiliation for

are a source of that humiliation for China

China

China don't you think they see the other side

don't you think they see the other side

don't you think they see the other side of that absolutely and in the interest

of that absolutely and in the interest

of that absolutely and in the interest of avoiding a World

of avoiding a World

of avoiding a World War I guess the question is uh how do we

War I guess the question is uh how do we

War I guess the question is uh how do we avoid a World War it

avoid a World War it

avoid a World War it doesn't um seem like the military invol

doesn't um seem like the military invol

doesn't um seem like the military invol involvement in the conflict between

involvement in the conflict between

involvement in the conflict between China and Taiwan is the

China and Taiwan is the

China and Taiwan is the way well I I don't want there's no good

way well I I don't want there's no good

way well I I don't want there's no good answers here I'm just saying there are

answers here I'm just saying there are

answers here I'm just saying there are no good which is the the less bad option

no good which is the the less bad option

no good which is the the less bad option well what you want to do is you want to

well what you want to do is you want to

well what you want to do is you want to make sure that you

make sure that you

make sure that you deter uh China from invading Taiwan you

deter uh China from invading Taiwan you

deter uh China from invading Taiwan you want to avoid a war you and I are in

want to avoid a war you and I are in

want to avoid a war you and I are in complete agreement on that we don't want

complete agreement on that we don't want

complete agreement on that we don't want a war but we want to contain China we do

a war but we want to contain China we do

a war but we want to contain China we do not want to let China dominate Asia that

not want to let China dominate Asia that

not want to let China dominate Asia that that's what the Americans are

that's what the Americans are

that's what the Americans are principally concerned with here and it's

principally concerned with here and it's

principally concerned with here and it's what China's neighbors are principally

what China's neighbors are principally

what China's neighbors are principally concerned with this includes the

concerned with this includes the

concerned with this includes the Japanese the South Koreans Filipinos

Japanese the South Koreans Filipinos

Japanese the South Koreans Filipinos Australians and the Taiwan East we they

Australians and the Taiwan East we they

Australians and the Taiwan East we they don't want and we don't want China to

don't want and we don't want China to

don't want and we don't want China to dominate the region so we have to

dominate the region so we have to

dominate the region so we have to contain it but at the same time and this

contain it but at the same time and this

contain it but at the same time and this should be music to your ears we not only

should be music to your ears we not only

should be music to your ears we not only want to contain it we want to make sure

want to contain it we want to make sure

want to contain it we want to make sure we don't end up in a shooting match with

we don't end up in a shooting match with

we don't end up in a shooting match with the Chinese because this could be

the Chinese because this could be

the Chinese because this could be disastrous so you have to have a very

disastrous so you have to have a very

disastrous so you have to have a very smart policy you have to build powerful

smart policy you have to build powerful

smart policy you have to build powerful military forces and you have to make

military forces and you have to make

military forces and you have to make sure you don't do anything that's

sure you don't do anything that's

sure you don't do anything that's provocative on Taiwan for example the

provocative on Taiwan for example the

provocative on Taiwan for example the last thing you want want is for the

last thing you want want is for the

last thing you want want is for the Taiwanese government to declare its

Taiwanese government to declare its

Taiwanese government to declare its independence because the Chinese have

independence because the Chinese have

independence because the Chinese have said if Taiwan does that we'll go to war

said if Taiwan does that we'll go to war

said if Taiwan does that we'll go to war and of course we don't want that so my

and of course we don't want that so my

and of course we don't want that so my view is you want to smartly build up

view is you want to smartly build up

view is you want to smartly build up your military forces and you want to do

your military forces and you want to do

your military forces and you want to do everything you can to contain China uh

everything you can to contain China uh

everything you can to contain China uh and at the same time not be

and at the same time not be

and at the same time not be provocative so a big component of that

provocative so a big component of that

provocative so a big component of that is making uh sure your military the US

is making uh sure your military the US

is making uh sure your military the US military is bigger than the Chinese

military is bigger than the Chinese

military is bigger than the Chinese military not necessarily uh it's an

military not necessarily uh it's an

military not necessarily uh it's an interesting question uh a lot of people

interesting question uh a lot of people

interesting question uh a lot of people think that to make deterrence work right

think that to make deterrence work right

think that to make deterrence work right you have to be able to beat the chines

you have to be able to beat the chines

you have to be able to beat the chines and therefore you need a much bigger

and therefore you need a much bigger

and therefore you need a much bigger military uh and I don't think over time

military uh and I don't think over time

military uh and I don't think over time that's possible right I think it's

that's possible right I think it's

that's possible right I think it's probably not even possible now to beat

probably not even possible now to beat

probably not even possible now to beat the Chinese in a war over Taiwan or a in

the Chinese in a war over Taiwan or a in

the Chinese in a war over Taiwan or a in a war in the South China Sea I think

a war in the South China Sea I think

a war in the South China Sea I think what you want to do is make it clear to

what you want to do is make it clear to

what you want to do is make it clear to the Chinese either that they will be no

the Chinese either that they will be no

the Chinese either that they will be no winner in other words you don't have to

winner in other words you don't have to

winner in other words you don't have to win but you want to make sure they don't

win but you want to make sure they don't

win but you want to make sure they don't win okay it's it's it's a lose

win okay it's it's it's a lose

win okay it's it's it's a lose lose uh proposition if they go to war

lose uh proposition if they go to war

lose uh proposition if they go to war over Taiwan or what have you uh and if

over Taiwan or what have you uh and if

over Taiwan or what have you uh and if you can't do that right you think that

you can't do that right you think that

you can't do that right you think that they're so powerful that they're

they're so powerful that they're

they're so powerful that they're ultimately going to win you want to

ultimately going to win you want to

ultimately going to win you want to convince them that Victory would would

convince them that Victory would would

convince them that Victory would would be a pic victory in other words they

be a pic victory in other words they

be a pic victory in other words they would pay a god awul price to win the

would pay a god awul price to win the

would pay a god awul price to win the war you follow what I'm saying so excuse

war you follow what I'm saying so excuse

war you follow what I'm saying so excuse me the best strategy for deterrence is

me the best strategy for deterrence is

me the best strategy for deterrence is you win China loses second best strategy

you win China loses second best strategy

you win China loses second best strategy is a stalemate nobody wins third best

is a stalemate nobody wins third best

is a stalemate nobody wins third best strategy is they win but they pay a God

strategy is they win but they pay a God

strategy is they win but they pay a God awful price and the fourth possibility

awful price and the fourth possibility

awful price and the fourth possibility which you don't want is they went

which you don't want is they went

which you don't want is they went quickly and decisively right uh if

quickly and decisively right uh if

quickly and decisively right uh if that's the case then you don't have much

deterrence what is a world with China as

deterrence what is a world with China as

deterrence what is a world with China as the sole dominant superpower look like I

the sole dominant superpower look like I

the sole dominant superpower look like I mean a little bit underlying our

mean a little bit underlying our

mean a little bit underlying our discussion is this kind of idea that us

discussion is this kind of idea that us

discussion is this kind of idea that us is the good guys and China is the bad

is the good guys and China is the bad

is the good guys and China is the bad guys first of all you know the you know

guys first of all you know the you know

guys first of all you know the you know dividing the world into good guys and

dividing the world into good guys and

dividing the world into good guys and bad guys seems to

bad guys seems to

bad guys seems to somehow miss the Nuance of this

somehow miss the Nuance of this

somehow miss the Nuance of this whole human civilization project we're

whole human civilization project we're

whole human civilization project we're undertaking but what does the world look

undertaking but what does the world look

undertaking but what does the world look like where China is the dominant sole

like where China is the dominant sole

like where China is the dominant sole superpower in a unipolar

superpower in a unipolar

superpower in a unipolar world well I I don't tend to think of

world well I I don't tend to think of

world well I I don't tend to think of the world in terms of good guys and bad

the world in terms of good guys and bad

the world in terms of good guys and bad guys as a good realist I I think that

guys as a good realist I I think that

guys as a good realist I I think that you know states are States they're all

you know states are States they're all

you know states are States they're all black boxes you know I don't

black boxes you know I don't

black boxes you know I don't discriminate between democracies and

discriminate between democracies and

discriminate between democracies and autocracies but having said that I am an

autocracies but having said that I am an

autocracies but having said that I am an American americ and as an American I'm

American americ and as an American I'm

American americ and as an American I'm interested in the security of my country

interested in the security of my country

interested in the security of my country the survival of my country so I want the

the survival of my country so I want the

the survival of my country so I want the United States to be the most powerful

United States to be the most powerful

United States to be the most powerful state in the world which means I want

state in the world which means I want

state in the world which means I want the do United States to dominate the

the do United States to dominate the

the do United States to dominate the Western Hemisphere I want us to be a

Western Hemisphere I want us to be a

Western Hemisphere I want us to be a regional hedgemon and I want to make

regional hedgemon and I want to make

regional hedgemon and I want to make sure that China does not dominate Asia

sure that China does not dominate Asia

sure that China does not dominate Asia the way we dominate the Western

the way we dominate the Western

the way we dominate the Western Hemisphere it's not because I think

Hemisphere it's not because I think

Hemisphere it's not because I think we're the good guys and they're the bad

we're the good guys and they're the bad

we're the good guys and they're the bad guys guys uh if I were Chinese and I

guys guys uh if I were Chinese and I

guys guys uh if I were Chinese and I were in Beijing and I were XI jinping's

were in Beijing and I were XI jinping's

were in Beijing and I were XI jinping's National Security adviser i' tell him

National Security adviser i' tell him

National Security adviser i' tell him what we got to do is make sure we

what we got to do is make sure we

what we got to do is make sure we dominate the world or dominate our

dominate the world or dominate our

dominate the world or dominate our region and then do everything we can to

region and then do everything we can to

region and then do everything we can to undermine America's position in the

undermine America's position in the

undermine America's position in the Western Hemisphere right that that be my

Western Hemisphere right that that be my

Western Hemisphere right that that be my view uh so I guess you could say I do

view uh so I guess you could say I do

view uh so I guess you could say I do view the world in terms of good guys and

view the world in terms of good guys and

view the world in terms of good guys and bad guys cuz I'm an American and I more

bad guys cuz I'm an American and I more

bad guys cuz I'm an American and I more like us and Them versus Us and Them

like us and Them versus Us and Them

like us and Them versus Us and Them that's that's a nice way to put it yeah

that's that's a nice way to put it yeah

that's that's a nice way to put it yeah it's US versus them not so much good

it's US versus them not so much good

it's US versus them not so much good guys versus bad guys is it possible to

guys versus bad guys is it possible to

guys versus bad guys is it possible to have a stable peaceful world with a good

have a stable peaceful world with a good

have a stable peaceful world with a good balance of power with where it's China

balance of power with where it's China

balance of power with where it's China and us as superpowers you it's a bipolar

and us as superpowers you it's a bipolar

and us as superpowers you it's a bipolar world no longer unipolar yeah okay so

world no longer unipolar yeah okay so

world no longer unipolar yeah okay so you're hypothesizing a world where they

you're hypothesizing a world where they

you're hypothesizing a world where they dominate Asia yeah and we dominate the

dominate Asia yeah and we dominate the

dominate Asia yeah and we dominate the Western Hemisphere I I believe there

Western Hemisphere I I believe there

Western Hemisphere I I believe there would be uh a great deal of security

would be uh a great deal of security

would be uh a great deal of security compet comptition intense security

compet comptition intense security

compet comptition intense security competition between those two

competition between those two

competition between those two superpowers the definition of intense

superpowers the definition of intense

superpowers the definition of intense matters here so it could be

matters here so it could be

matters here so it could be small small military conflicts or it

small small military conflicts or it

small small military conflicts or it could be extremely large unstable

could be extremely large unstable

could be extremely large unstable military conflicts well conflict let's

military conflicts well conflict let's

military conflicts well conflict let's use the word War okay so I I distinguish

use the word War okay so I I distinguish

use the word War okay so I I distinguish between security competition and War and

between security competition and War and

between security competition and War and what I'm telling you is you'll have an

what I'm telling you is you'll have an

what I'm telling you is you'll have an intense security

intense security

intense security competition where there's no shooting or

competition where there's no shooting or

competition where there's no shooting or if there's shooting it's mainly proxies

if there's shooting it's mainly proxies

if there's shooting it's mainly proxies that are doing the fighting much like

that are doing the fighting much like

that are doing the fighting much like the Vietnam War right uh or you could

the Vietnam War right uh or you could

the Vietnam War right uh or you could have a case where one of those

have a case where one of those

have a case where one of those superpowers was involved in a war

superpowers was involved in a war

superpowers was involved in a war against a proxy of the other superpower

against a proxy of the other superpower

against a proxy of the other superpower Korean War think the Korean War the

Korean War think the Korean War the

Korean War think the Korean War the United States fought the Chinese who

United States fought the Chinese who

United States fought the Chinese who were allied with the Soviets at the time

were allied with the Soviets at the time

were allied with the Soviets at the time but uh a war between the United States

but uh a war between the United States

but uh a war between the United States and China just like a war between the

and China just like a war between the

and China just like a war between the United States and the Soviet Union

United States and the Soviet Union

United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War that's what you

during the Cold War that's what you

during the Cold War that's what you really want to invoid avoid so I think

really want to invoid avoid so I think

really want to invoid avoid so I think you'd have an intense security

you'd have an intense security

you'd have an intense security competition right you'd have wars

competition right you'd have wars

competition right you'd have wars involving proxies of each of those two

involving proxies of each of those two

involving proxies of each of those two superpowers and you would probably have

superpowers and you would probably have

superpowers and you would probably have some Wars where one of the superpowers

some Wars where one of the superpowers

some Wars where one of the superpowers was involved in a proxy right with the

was involved in a proxy right with the

was involved in a proxy right with the other super one of the super other

other super one of the super other

other super one of the super other superpowers proxies so it seems likely

superpowers proxies so it seems likely

superpowers proxies so it seems likely then if that's the case then it would be

then if that's the case then it would be

then if that's the case then it would be Taiwan is the proxy and us fighting

Taiwan is the proxy and us fighting

Taiwan is the proxy and us fighting China through the proxy of Taiwan what

China through the proxy of Taiwan what

China through the proxy of Taiwan what yeah well that would assume the United

yeah well that would assume the United

yeah well that would assume the United States but you want to remember you're

States but you want to remember you're

States but you want to remember you're hypothesizing a situation where China

hypothesizing a situation where China

hypothesizing a situation where China dominates Asia oh already has dominated

dominates Asia oh already has dominated

dominates Asia oh already has dominated yeah it's already dominated Taiwan uh I

yeah it's already dominated Taiwan uh I

yeah it's already dominated Taiwan uh I see we we well where do you find the

see we we well where do you find the

see we we well where do you find the proxies Australia the Middle East could

proxies Australia the Middle East could

proxies Australia the Middle East could be a good case oh wow right Persian Gulf

be a good case oh wow right Persian Gulf

be a good case oh wow right Persian Gulf right oh boy and then our discussion of

right oh boy and then our discussion of

right oh boy and then our discussion of Israel becomes even more dramatically

Israel becomes even more dramatically

Israel becomes even more dramatically yeah well Israel Israel gets involved I

yeah well Israel Israel gets involved I

yeah well Israel Israel gets involved I think I think in this scenario if you're

think I think in this scenario if you're

think I think in this scenario if you're talking about a us China

talking about a us China

talking about a us China competition right and you're talking

competition right and you're talking

competition right and you're talking about the Middle East I think it's the

about the Middle East I think it's the

about the Middle East I think it's the gulf it's it's the Saudis the Iranians

gulf it's it's the Saudis the Iranians

gulf it's it's the Saudis the Iranians the Iraqis it's the oil don't you think

the Iraqis it's the oil don't you think

the Iraqis it's the oil don't you think it could be Israel versus Iran with

it could be Israel versus Iran with

it could be Israel versus Iran with some very 1984 kind of dramatic

some very 1984 kind of dramatic

some very 1984 kind of dramatic Partnership of Iran Russia and China

Partnership of Iran Russia and China

Partnership of Iran Russia and China versus United States Europe and um

versus United States Europe and um

versus United States Europe and um Israel I think that's possible yeah I

Israel I think that's possible yeah I

Israel I think that's possible yeah I think that's possible yeah now that I I

think that's possible yeah now that I I

think that's possible yeah now that I I mean I hadn't thought about it uh until

mean I hadn't thought about it uh until

mean I hadn't thought about it uh until you said it but yeah I think that that

you said it but yeah I think that that

you said it but yeah I think that that that is possible isn't isn't that

that is possible isn't isn't that

that is possible isn't isn't that terrifying yeah well that you know in

terrifying yeah well that you know in

terrifying yeah well that you know in your scenario where China already

your scenario where China already

your scenario where China already dominates Asia and we dominate the

dominates Asia and we dominate the

dominates Asia and we dominate the Western Hemisphere uh I think you start

Western Hemisphere uh I think you start

Western Hemisphere uh I think you start talking about we the most likely

talking about we the most likely

talking about we the most likely places uh that the United States and

places uh that the United States and

places uh that the United States and China go

China go

China go head-to-head or or fight through proxies

head-to-head or or fight through proxies

head-to-head or or fight through proxies uh I I think it is the goal for the

uh I I think it is the goal for the

uh I I think it is the goal for the Middle East and the scenario that you

Middle East and the scenario that you

Middle East and the scenario that you posit I mean one one question I

posit I mean one one question I

posit I mean one one question I have I don't know about you but for me

have I don't know about you but for me

have I don't know about you but for me unlike with the Soviet

unlike with the Soviet

unlike with the Soviet Union and I know I was born there but

Union and I know I was born there but

Union and I know I was born there but even outside of that the cultural

even outside of that the cultural

even outside of that the cultural Gap the the the loss in Translation the

Gap the the the loss in Translation the

Gap the the the loss in Translation the communication gap between China and the

communication gap between China and the

communication gap between China and the United States seems to be much greater

United States seems to be much greater

United States seems to be much greater than that of what was the former Soviet

than that of what was the former Soviet

than that of what was the former Soviet Union and the United

Union and the United

Union and the United States I see two cultures intermingling

States I see two cultures intermingling

States I see two cultures intermingling and communicating is one of the ways to

and communicating is one of the ways to

and communicating is one of the ways to deescalate future

deescalate future

deescalate future conflict it's an interesting question I

conflict it's an interesting question I

conflict it's an interesting question I mean at a sort of an abstract

mean at a sort of an abstract

mean at a sort of an abstract theoretical level my argument is that

theoretical level my argument is that

theoretical level my argument is that great Powers Act according to realist

great Powers Act according to realist

great Powers Act according to realist dictates and they understand the those

dictates and they understand the those

dictates and they understand the those realist dictates and uh that could lead

realist dictates and uh that could lead

realist dictates and uh that could lead to cooperation or it can lead to uh War

to cooperation or it can lead to uh War

to cooperation or it can lead to uh War uh it depends U I would say just in the

uh it depends U I would say just in the

uh it depends U I would say just in the case of the Soviets a lot of people

case of the Soviets a lot of people

case of the Soviets a lot of people describe the Cold War as an ideological

describe the Cold War as an ideological

describe the Cold War as an ideological competition above all else it's was

competition above all else it's was

competition above all else it's was communism

communism

communism versus liberal democracy or communism

versus liberal democracy or communism

versus liberal democracy or communism versus liberal capitalism whatever

versus liberal capitalism whatever

versus liberal capitalism whatever uh I actually don't believe that I I

uh I actually don't believe that I I

uh I actually don't believe that I I believe the Soviets were uh realists to

believe the Soviets were uh realists to

believe the Soviets were uh realists to the core uh I believe Stalin was a

the core uh I believe Stalin was a

the core uh I believe Stalin was a realist par

realist par

realist par exellence uh and that ideology did not

exellence uh and that ideology did not

exellence uh and that ideology did not matter much in Stalin's foreign policy

matter much in Stalin's foreign policy

matter much in Stalin's foreign policy and I believe if you look at Soviet

and I believe if you look at Soviet

and I believe if you look at Soviet foreign policy uh after World War II you

foreign policy uh after World War II you

foreign policy uh after World War II you know throughout the Cold War they were

know throughout the Cold War they were

know throughout the Cold War they were realists to the core uh and uh and I

realists to the core uh and uh and I

realists to the core uh and uh and I think in those days the Americans were

think in those days the Americans were

think in those days the Americans were realists right uh lot of liberal

realists right uh lot of liberal

realists right uh lot of liberal ideology floating around out there but

ideology floating around out there but

ideology floating around out there but the Americans were realists and I think

the Americans were realists and I think

the Americans were realists and I think one of the reasons you avoided uh a

one of the reasons you avoided uh a

one of the reasons you avoided uh a shooting match between the United States

shooting match between the United States

shooting match between the United States and the Soviet Union from 47 to uh

and the Soviet Union from 47 to uh

and the Soviet Union from 47 to uh 89 uh was because both sides I think uh

89 uh was because both sides I think uh

89 uh was because both sides I think uh understood basic balance of power

understood basic balance of power

understood basic balance of power logic us China competition is somewhat

logic us China competition is somewhat

logic us China competition is somewhat different first of all the Chinese are

different first of all the Chinese are

different first of all the Chinese are realists to the core uh I I've spent a

realists to the core uh I I've spent a

realists to the core uh I I've spent a lot of time in China I basically have

lot of time in China I basically have

lot of time in China I basically have rock and roll I'm basically a rock and

rock and roll I'm basically a rock and

rock and roll I'm basically a rock and roll star in China uh the Chinese you're

roll star in China uh the Chinese you're

roll star in China uh the Chinese you're kind of a big deal in China I love it

kind of a big deal in China I love it

kind of a big deal in China I love it the Chinese are my kind of people

the Chinese are my kind of people

the Chinese are my kind of people they're realists right they speak my

they're realists right they speak my

they're realists right they speak my language yeah it's the United States

language yeah it's the United States

language yeah it's the United States that is not very realist American

that is not very realist American

that is not very realist American leaders uh have a very powerful liberal

leaders uh have a very powerful liberal

leaders uh have a very powerful liberal bent and tend not to see the world in

bent and tend not to see the world in

bent and tend not to see the world in realist terms I Believe by the way just

realist terms I Believe by the way just

realist terms I Believe by the way just going back to our discussion of NATO

going back to our discussion of NATO

going back to our discussion of NATO expansion I think our inability to

expansion I think our inability to

expansion I think our inability to understand that NATO expansion was

understand that NATO expansion was

understand that NATO expansion was anathema to the Soviet to the Russians

anathema to the Soviet to the Russians

anathema to the Soviet to the Russians was do in large part to the fact that we

was do in large part to the fact that we

was do in large part to the fact that we just during the unipolar moment didn't

just during the unipolar moment didn't

just during the unipolar moment didn't think of international politics from a

think of international politics from a

think of international politics from a realist perspective and didn't respect

realist perspective and didn't respect

realist perspective and didn't respect anyone who thought about International

anyone who thought about International

anyone who thought about International politics from a realist

politics from a realist

politics from a realist perspective if those various American

perspective if those various American

perspective if those various American administrations starting with the

administrations starting with the

administrations starting with the Clinton administration had put their

Clinton administration had put their

Clinton administration had put their realest hat on they would have

realest hat on they would have

realest hat on they would have understood that NATO expansion into

understood that NATO expansion into

understood that NATO expansion into Ukraine was not a good idea but we had

Ukraine was not a good idea but we had

Ukraine was not a good idea but we had this thoroughly liberal view of the

this thoroughly liberal view of the

this thoroughly liberal view of the world that dominated our thinking and

world that dominated our thinking and

world that dominated our thinking and it's gone away somewhat since we've

it's gone away somewhat since we've

it's gone away somewhat since we've moved into multipolarity but not

moved into multipolarity but not

moved into multipolarity but not completely and uh this makes me a little

completely and uh this makes me a little

completely and uh this makes me a little nervous right to pick up on your point I

nervous right to pick up on your point I

nervous right to pick up on your point I mean the United States is thinking about

mean the United States is thinking about

mean the United States is thinking about the world in ways that are somewhat

the world in ways that are somewhat

the world in ways that are somewhat different than the Chinese who are real

different than the Chinese who are real

different than the Chinese who are real is par Excellence so

is par Excellence so

is par Excellence so that's fascinating so the Chinese are

that's fascinating so the Chinese are

that's fascinating so the Chinese are pragmatic uh about thinking of the world

pragmatic uh about thinking of the world

pragmatic uh about thinking of the world and

and

and um as a competition of military Powers

um as a competition of military Powers

um as a competition of military Powers all the ways in which he described the

all the ways in which he described the

all the ways in which he described the realist perspective so that I mean

realist perspective so that I mean

realist perspective so that I mean that's a that's a that's a hopeful thing

that's a that's a that's a hopeful thing

that's a that's a that's a hopeful thing right

right

right if uh we can achieve stability and a

if uh we can achieve stability and a

if uh we can achieve stability and a balance of powers through that military

balance of powers through that military

balance of powers through that military competition yeah I I actually think

competition yeah I I actually think

competition yeah I I actually think that's right I think if the United

that's right I think if the United

that's right I think if the United States just let me talk a little bit

States just let me talk a little bit

States just let me talk a little bit about the United States to get at the

about the United States to get at the

about the United States to get at the issue you're raising if the United

issue you're raising if the United

issue you're raising if the United States pursues a smart containment

States pursues a smart containment

States pursues a smart containment strategy MH given what you just said and

strategy MH given what you just said and

strategy MH given what you just said and I said about the Chinese I think we will

I said about the Chinese I think we will

I said about the Chinese I think we will avoid war the problem with the Americans

avoid war the problem with the Americans

avoid war the problem with the Americans is it's not just the

is it's not just the

is it's not just the liberalism it's the possibility that we

liberalism it's the possibility that we

liberalism it's the possibility that we will pursue a roll back policy in other

will pursue a roll back policy in other

will pursue a roll back policy in other words during the Cold War uh we pursued

words during the Cold War uh we pursued

words during the Cold War uh we pursued containment it was whenever anybody

containment it was whenever anybody

containment it was whenever anybody talked about American Grand strategy

talked about American Grand strategy

talked about American Grand strategy towards the Soviet Union was Containment

towards the Soviet Union was Containment

towards the Soviet Union was Containment containment containment we now know from

containment containment we now know from

containment containment we now know from the historical record that the United

the historical record that the United

the historical record that the United States was not only pursuing containment

States was not only pursuing containment

States was not only pursuing containment it was pursuing roll back we were trying

it was pursuing roll back we were trying

it was pursuing roll back we were trying to roll back Soviet power to put it

to roll back Soviet power to put it

to roll back Soviet power to put it bluntly we were trying to wreck the

bluntly we were trying to wreck the

bluntly we were trying to wreck the Soviet Union

Soviet Union

Soviet Union okay and I would not be surprised moving

okay and I would not be surprised moving

okay and I would not be surprised moving forward with regard to China if the

forward with regard to China if the

forward with regard to China if the United States pursues a serious roll

United States pursues a serious roll

United States pursues a serious roll back policy and uh so you're saying

back policy and uh so you're saying

back policy and uh so you're saying throughout history United States was

throughout history United States was

throughout history United States was always doing that always where's that

always doing that always where's that

always doing that always where's that from why why can't we respect the power

from why why can't we respect the power

from why why can't we respect the power of other nations because they may be a

of other nations because they may be a

of other nations because they may be a threat to us we well I mean you don't

threat to us we well I mean you don't

threat to us we well I mean you don't look you don't respect the power of

look you don't respect the power of

look you don't respect the power of other nations you fear the power of

other nations you fear the power of

other nations you fear the power of other nations well fear and respect to

other nations well fear and respect to

other nations well fear and respect to Nextdoor neighbors depending on the

Nextdoor neighbors depending on the

Nextdoor neighbors depending on the neighborhood you're living in but I I

neighborhood you're living in but I I

neighborhood you're living in but I I just mean it's it could be very

just mean it's it could be very

just mean it's it could be very counterproductive to try because if you

counterproductive to try because if you

counterproductive to try because if you can empathize with they if if you assume

can empathize with they if if you assume

can empathize with they if if you assume they rational actors you trying to roll

they rational actors you trying to roll

they rational actors you trying to roll back will

back will

back will create um would lean into the

create um would lean into the

create um would lean into the uncertainty of potential conflict so you

uncertainty of potential conflict so you

uncertainty of potential conflict so you want to avoid the uncertainty of

want to avoid the uncertainty of

want to avoid the uncertainty of potential conflict caution right well

potential conflict caution right well

potential conflict caution right well yes and no look your point is you want

yes and no look your point is you want

yes and no look your point is you want to empathize you want to be able to put

to empathize you want to be able to put

to empathize you want to be able to put yourself in the shoes of the other side

yourself in the shoes of the other side

yourself in the shoes of the other side yes I agree 100% but with that right

yes I agree 100% but with that right

yes I agree 100% but with that right it's very important if you're a first

it's very important if you're a first

it's very important if you're a first class strategist to be able to do that

class strategist to be able to do that

class strategist to be able to do that but it's the same time there is this

but it's the same time there is this

but it's the same time there is this competition for power taking place and

competition for power taking place and

competition for power taking place and what you want to do is maximize how much

what you want to do is maximize how much

what you want to do is maximize how much power you have relative to the other

power you have relative to the other

power you have relative to the other side and the other side wants to

side and the other side wants to

side and the other side wants to maximize how much power it has relative

maximize how much power it has relative

maximize how much power it has relative to you so you have this competition for

to you so you have this competition for

to you so you have this competition for power right uh that's taking place all

power right uh that's taking place all

power right uh that's taking place all the time and that's taking place at the

the time and that's taking place at the

the time and that's taking place at the same time you want to have empathy or

same time you want to have empathy or

same time you want to have empathy or you want to be able to put yourself in

you want to be able to put yourself in

you want to be able to put yourself in the shoes of the other side so those two

the shoes of the other side so those two

the shoes of the other side so those two things kind of go together right it just

things kind of go together right it just

things kind of go together right it just feels less threatening to build up your

feels less threatening to build up your

feels less threatening to build up your thing versus try to hurt the other

thing versus try to hurt the other

thing versus try to hurt the other person's thing the other group's thing

person's thing the other group's thing

person's thing the other group's thing right but if you build up your own power

right but if you build up your own power

right but if you build up your own power you were building up your capability to

you were building up your capability to

you were building up your capability to hurt the other side right but like you I

hurt the other side right but like you I

hurt the other side right but like you I guess you don't rattle the saber just

guess you don't rattle the saber just

guess you don't rattle the saber just just work on manufacturing

just work on manufacturing

just work on manufacturing Sabers well that I agree with I I think

Sabers well that I agree with I I think

Sabers well that I agree with I I think that you know the United States you know

that you know the United States you know

that you know the United States you know uh wants to make sure it has a big stick

uh wants to make sure it has a big stick

uh wants to make sure it has a big stick in East Asia for purposes of containing

in East Asia for purposes of containing

in East Asia for purposes of containing China and avoiding a war right again I

China and avoiding a war right again I

China and avoiding a war right again I want to be clear I'm not advocating uh

want to be clear I'm not advocating uh

want to be clear I'm not advocating uh that we start World War III but the

that we start World War III but the

that we start World War III but the point is you want to have a big stick

point is you want to have a big stick

point is you want to have a big stick and you want to make sure that you don't

and you want to make sure that you don't

and you want to make sure that you don't overstep your bounds in terms of using

overstep your bounds in terms of using

overstep your bounds in terms of using that big stick this is the danger with

that big stick this is the danger with

that big stick this is the danger with rollback right that you get too

rollback right that you get too

rollback right that you get too aggressive and you precipitate a war

aggressive and you precipitate a war

aggressive and you precipitate a war right and you also just have to be very

right and you also just have to be very

right and you also just have to be very careful what you say and to go back to

careful what you say and to go back to

careful what you say and to go back to your favorite argument you want to be

your favorite argument you want to be

your favorite argument you want to be able to have empathy or put yourself in

able to have empathy or put yourself in

able to have empathy or put yourself in uh the shoes of the other side because

uh the shoes of the other side because

uh the shoes of the other side because if you do something you want to think

if you do something you want to think

if you do something you want to think smartly about what that other side how

smartly about what that other side how

smartly about what that other side how that other side is going to see your

that other side is going to see your

that other side is going to see your action and how they're going to react

action and how they're going to react

action and how they're going to react right and and mostly focus on the

right and and mostly focus on the

right and and mostly focus on the carrots have a giant stick laying around

carrots have a giant stick laying around

carrots have a giant stick laying around but never mention it just focus on the

but never mention it just focus on the

but never mention it just focus on the carrots well occasionally you have to

carrots well occasionally you have to

carrots well occasionally you have to mention the stick right no everyone

mention the stick right no everyone

mention the stick right no everyone knows the stick is there there is some

knows the stick is there there is some

knows the stick is there there is some truth in that right I mean yeah uh but

truth in that right I mean yeah uh but

truth in that right I mean yeah uh but you know and words matter a lot it feels

you know and words matter a lot it feels

you know and words matter a lot it feels you know this uh current President

you know this uh current President

you know this uh current President Biden's meeting with xiin ping and I

Biden's meeting with xiin ping and I

Biden's meeting with xiin ping and I think the wars exchanged there are

think the wars exchanged there are

think the wars exchanged there are really important I have a notion the

really important I have a notion the

really important I have a notion the leaders can stop Wars just as much as

leaders can stop Wars just as much as

leaders can stop Wars just as much as they can start

they can start

they can start wars well leaders matter there's no

wars well leaders matter there's no

wars well leaders matter there's no question about that no question but just

question about that no question but just

question about that no question but just on on red Eric you want to remember that

on on red Eric you want to remember that

on on red Eric you want to remember that Putin has on more than one occasion very

Putin has on more than one occasion very

Putin has on more than one occasion very subtly rattled the nuclear sword oh yeah

subtly rattled the nuclear sword oh yeah

subtly rattled the nuclear sword oh yeah and it has been very effective yeah

and it has been very effective yeah

and it has been very effective yeah because Joe Biden has paid attention and

because Joe Biden has paid attention and

because Joe Biden has paid attention and Joe Biden wants to make sure we don't

Joe Biden wants to make sure we don't

Joe Biden wants to make sure we don't end up in a thermonuclear war and thank

end up in a thermonuclear war and thank

end up in a thermonuclear war and thank goodness uh he's thinking that way so

goodness uh he's thinking that way so

goodness uh he's thinking that way so all Putin has to do is mention the

all Putin has to do is mention the

all Putin has to do is mention the possibility of nuclear war just to go

possibility of nuclear war just to go

possibility of nuclear war just to go back to Taiwan you know a switch areas

back to Taiwan you know a switch areas

back to Taiwan you know a switch areas of the world

of the world

of the world if you're interested in containing China

if you're interested in containing China

if you're interested in containing China and you're interested in

and you're interested in

and you're interested in deterrence and let's go back to those

deterrence and let's go back to those

deterrence and let's go back to those various scenarios where the Chinese win

various scenarios where the Chinese win

various scenarios where the Chinese win we win Chinese win but they do it at a

we win Chinese win but they do it at a

we win Chinese win but they do it at a costly at Great cost one could

costly at Great cost one could

costly at Great cost one could argue that that discussion that I laid

argue that that discussion that I laid

argue that that discussion that I laid out before didn't take into account

out before didn't take into account

out before didn't take into account nuclear weapons and all President Biden

nuclear weapons and all President Biden

nuclear weapons and all President Biden or any of his successors has to do is

or any of his successors has to do is

or any of his successors has to do is just very subtly uh rattle uh or or or

just very subtly uh rattle uh or or or

just very subtly uh rattle uh or or or or or employ the nuclear threat you know

or or employ the nuclear threat you know

or or employ the nuclear threat you know uh and just sort of remind the Chinese

uh and just sort of remind the Chinese

uh and just sort of remind the Chinese that you know you start a war over

that you know you start a war over

that you know you start a war over Taiwan it could easily escalate into a

Taiwan it could easily escalate into a

Taiwan it could easily escalate into a nuclear war you want to understand we

nuclear war you want to understand we

nuclear war you want to understand we both have nuclear weapons and if either

both have nuclear weapons and if either

both have nuclear weapons and if either one of us is put into a desperate

one of us is put into a desperate

one of us is put into a desperate situation we may turn to those nuclear

situation we may turn to those nuclear

situation we may turn to those nuclear weapons and oh by the way jingping you

weapons and oh by the way jingping you

weapons and oh by the way jingping you want to understand that we're out here

want to understand that we're out here

want to understand that we're out here in the water and using nuclear weapons

in the water and using nuclear weapons

in the water and using nuclear weapons in the water it's not

in the water it's not

in the water it's not that it's not the same as using War uh

that it's not the same as using War uh

that it's not the same as using War uh nuclear weapons on land so we may very

nuclear weapons on land so we may very

nuclear weapons on land so we may very well use them I'm not saying we will but

well use them I'm not saying we will but

well use them I'm not saying we will but anyway a little saber rattling yeah

anyway a little saber rattling yeah

anyway a little saber rattling yeah right let me just zoom out on human

right let me just zoom out on human

right let me just zoom out on human history what makes Empires collapse and

history what makes Empires collapse and

history what makes Empires collapse and what makes them last when they

what makes them last when they

what makes them last when they do when you look at human history in

do when you look at human history in

do when you look at human history in your sense

your sense

your sense thinking about the United States perhaps

thinking about the United States perhaps

thinking about the United States perhaps as an

as an

as an Empire I don't view the United States as

Empire I don't view the United States as

Empire I don't view the United States as an Empire uh what's the what's the def

an Empire uh what's the what's the def

an Empire uh what's the what's the def so to you Empire is a thing that seeks

so to you Empire is a thing that seeks

so to you Empire is a thing that seeks expansion

expansion

expansion constantly yeah I I think it's a country

constantly yeah I I think it's a country

constantly yeah I I think it's a country uh that incorporates

uh that incorporates

uh that incorporates different uh regions or areas around the

different uh regions or areas around the

different uh regions or areas around the world uh into sort of a giant sphere of

world uh into sort of a giant sphere of

world uh into sort of a giant sphere of influence without

influence without

influence without incorporating those

incorporating those

incorporating those territories actually into the state

territories actually into the state

territories actually into the state itself so you had this thing called the

itself so you had this thing called the

itself so you had this thing called the British Empire and it controlled areas

British Empire and it controlled areas

British Empire and it controlled areas like

like

like India uh uh North

India uh uh North

India uh uh North America uh and Kenya just to pick a

America uh and Kenya just to pick a

America uh and Kenya just to pick a couple instances at different points

couple instances at different points

couple instances at different points Singapore would be another example

Singapore would be another example

Singapore would be another example Australia would be another example Le so

Australia would be another example Le so

Australia would be another example Le so these were all entities that were part

these were all entities that were part

these were all entities that were part of the British Empire right and the

of the British Empire right and the

of the British Empire right and the United States has taken a stabit Empire

United States has taken a stabit Empire

United States has taken a stabit Empire after the Spanish American war for

after the Spanish American war for

after the Spanish American war for example uh with regard to the

example uh with regard to the

example uh with regard to the Philippines and Cuba and Puerto Rico but

Philippines and Cuba and Puerto Rico but

Philippines and Cuba and Puerto Rico but we never got serious about it there's

we never got serious about it there's

we never got serious about it there's never been an American Empire this is

never been an American Empire this is

never been an American Empire this is not to say the United States is not an

not to say the United States is not an

not to say the United States is not an incredibly powerful country that go all

incredibly powerful country that go all

incredibly powerful country that go all around the world building military bases

around the world building military bases

around the world building military bases and stationing troops Here There and

and stationing troops Here There and

and stationing troops Here There and Everywhere but we're not running an

Everywhere but we're not running an

Everywhere but we're not running an Empire the way the British Empire was

Empire the way the British Empire was

Empire the way the British Empire was run or the French

run or the French

run or the French Empire uh so the question for me is why

Empire uh so the question for me is why

Empire uh so the question for me is why did those Empires go away the why did

did those Empires go away the why did

did those Empires go away the why did the British Empire go away if you ever

the British Empire go away if you ever

the British Empire go away if you ever look at a map of the world in 1922 after

look at a map of the world in 1922 after

look at a map of the world in 1922 after World War I it's truly amazing how much

World War I it's truly amazing how much

World War I it's truly amazing how much of that map is controlled by Britain

of that map is controlled by Britain

of that map is controlled by Britain right they had a huge Empire and it

right they had a huge Empire and it

right they had a huge Empire and it disappeared probably by far the biggest

disappeared probably by far the biggest

disappeared probably by far the biggest in terms of area Empire and human

in terms of area Empire and human

in terms of area Empire and human history I think so I think that's right

history I think so I think that's right

history I think so I think that's right it almost has to be yeah right right uh

it almost has to be yeah right right uh

it almost has to be yeah right right uh it's crazy crazy yeah it's and then no

it's crazy crazy yeah it's and then no

it's crazy crazy yeah it's and then no longer no longer is the case yeah now I

longer no longer is the case yeah now I

longer no longer is the case yeah now I I going be clear the the Americans have

I going be clear the the Americans have

I going be clear the the Americans have wielded maybe even greater influence

wielded maybe even greater influence

wielded maybe even greater influence than Britain did when it had its Empire

than Britain did when it had its Empire

than Britain did when it had its Empire but I don't believe we have an EMP

but I don't believe we have an EMP

but I don't believe we have an EMP Empire that bears any resemblance to the

Empire that bears any resemblance to the

Empire that bears any resemblance to the British

British

British Empire so the question is what happened

Empire so the question is what happened

Empire so the question is what happened to that British Empire what happened to

to that British Empire what happened to

to that British Empire what happened to the French Empire what happened to the

the French Empire what happened to the

the French Empire what happened to the Belgian Empire what happened to the

Belgian Empire what happened to the

Belgian Empire what happened to the Dutch Empire these were countries that

Dutch Empire these were countries that

Dutch Empire these were countries that had colonies all over the planet the

had colonies all over the planet the

had colonies all over the planet the Dutch East Indies right Vietnam was you

Dutch East Indies right Vietnam was you

Dutch East Indies right Vietnam was you know French Indochina where where did

know French Indochina where where did

know French Indochina where where did those Empires go two factors finish them

those Empires go two factors finish them

those Empires go two factors finish them off number one nationalism nationalism

off number one nationalism nationalism

off number one nationalism nationalism became a very powerful force in the 19th

became a very powerful force in the 19th

became a very powerful force in the 19th century it began to rear its head in the

century it began to rear its head in the

century it began to rear its head in the late 18th century it became a very

late 18th century it became a very

late 18th century it became a very powerful force in the 19th and certainly

powerful force in the 19th and certainly

powerful force in the 19th and certainly in the 20th can you explain nationalism

in the 20th can you explain nationalism

in the 20th can you explain nationalism here nationalism is the idea that these

here nationalism is the idea that these

here nationalism is the idea that these different nations that were part of the

different nations that were part of the

different nations that were part of the Empire like the Kenyans wanted their own

Empire like the Kenyans wanted their own

Empire like the Kenyans wanted their own State nation state this is my point

State nation state this is my point

State nation state this is my point about the Palestinians right this is

about the Palestinians right this is

about the Palestinians right this is Palestinian nationalism what is Zionism

Palestinian nationalism what is Zionism

Palestinian nationalism what is Zionism Zionism is Jewish nationalism Jewish

Zionism is Jewish nationalism Jewish

Zionism is Jewish nationalism Jewish nationalism think of Theodore herzl's

nationalism think of Theodore herzl's

nationalism think of Theodore herzl's famous book it's called the Jewish State

famous book it's called the Jewish State

famous book it's called the Jewish State nation state think of the word nation

nation state think of the word nation

nation state think of the word nation state that embodies nationalism nation

state that embodies nationalism nation

state that embodies nationalism nation state Jewish State Palestinians want

state Jewish State Palestinians want

state Jewish State Palestinians want their own State two- State solution

their own State two- State solution

their own State two- State solution right can't beat the Palestinians into

right can't beat the Palestinians into

right can't beat the Palestinians into submission right the Indians wanted

submission right the Indians wanted

submission right the Indians wanted their own State The pakistanis Wanted

their own State The pakistanis Wanted

their own State The pakistanis Wanted their own State the Kenyans wanted their

their own State the Kenyans wanted their

their own State the Kenyans wanted their own State Singapore wanted its own State

own State Singapore wanted its own State

own State Singapore wanted its own State oh the Americans wanted their own State

oh the Americans wanted their own State

oh the Americans wanted their own State this is called the American Revolution y

this is called the American Revolution y

this is called the American Revolution y right so that's the first reason

right so that's the first reason

right so that's the first reason nationalism that these Empires

nationalism that these Empires

nationalism that these Empires disappeared the second reason is that

disappeared the second reason is that

disappeared the second reason is that from a cost benefit analysis uh they no

from a cost benefit analysis uh they no

from a cost benefit analysis uh they no longer made any sense uh and it was the

longer made any sense uh and it was the

longer made any sense uh and it was the coming of the Industrial Revolution once

coming of the Industrial Revolution once

coming of the Industrial Revolution once the Industrial Revolution comes an

the Industrial Revolution comes an

the Industrial Revolution comes an Empire is basically an albatross around

Empire is basically an albatross around

Empire is basically an albatross around your neck I would argue that the British

your neck I would argue that the British

your neck I would argue that the British Empire was an albatross around Britain's

Empire was an albatross around Britain's

Empire was an albatross around Britain's neck in most of the 20th century some my

neck in most of the 20th century some my

neck in most of the 20th century some my friends disagree with that and think

friends disagree with that and think

friends disagree with that and think there were all sorts of benefits uh from

there were all sorts of benefits uh from

there were all sorts of benefits uh from the British Empire but you want to

the British Empire but you want to

the British Empire but you want to remember that in the 20th century the

remember that in the 20th century the

remember that in the 20th century the three countries that really were

three countries that really were

three countries that really were powerful were the United States Germany

powerful were the United States Germany

powerful were the United States Germany and the Soviet Union those were the big

and the Soviet Union those were the big

and the Soviet Union those were the big three did any of them have an Empire

three did any of them have an Empire

three did any of them have an Empire no that's a good car in the industrial

no that's a good car in the industrial

no that's a good car in the industrial world yes you don't need you know uh an

world yes you don't need you know uh an

world yes you don't need you know uh an Empire right what you need is a powerful

Empire right what you need is a powerful

Empire right what you need is a powerful manufacturing base well the the cost

manufacturing base well the the cost

manufacturing base well the the cost benefit analysis is different before the

benefit analysis is different before the

benefit analysis is different before the Industrial Revolution there's been many

Industrial Revolution there's been many

Industrial Revolution there's been many empires there's no question that Empires

empires there's no question that Empires

empires there's no question that Empires uh came and went right I mean yes right

uh came and went right I mean yes right

uh came and went right I mean yes right and or if do just look at the British

and or if do just look at the British

and or if do just look at the British and the French uh in the Seven Years War

and the French uh in the Seven Years War

and the French uh in the Seven Years War 1756 to

1756 to

1756 to 1763 the British win they get Canada

1763 the British win they get Canada

1763 the British win they get Canada right and that's why you know Quebec

right and that's why you know Quebec

right and that's why you know Quebec Montreal all these big French speaking

Montreal all these big French speaking

Montreal all these big French speaking areas are now part of uh Canada right uh

areas are now part of uh Canada right uh

areas are now part of uh Canada right uh so borders change and you know C

so borders change and you know C

so borders change and you know C countries got established the United

countries got established the United

countries got established the United States being one and remember South

States being one and remember South

States being one and remember South American Central America were once

American Central America were once

American Central America were once completely dominated by the Spanish and

completely dominated by the Spanish and

completely dominated by the Spanish and in the case of Brazil the

in the case of Brazil the

in the case of Brazil the Portuguese but uh they all in the 19th

Portuguese but uh they all in the 19th

Portuguese but uh they all in the 19th century got their

century got their

century got their independence right and what I'm saying

independence right and what I'm saying

independence right and what I'm saying to you is in the 19th and in the 20th

to you is in the 19th and in the 20th

to you is in the 19th and in the 20th century there were two forces that were

century there were two forces that were

century there were two forces that were really driving the train one is

really driving the train one is

really driving the train one is nationalism and then the other is the

nationalism and then the other is the

nationalism and then the other is the Industrial Revolution which changes the

Industrial Revolution which changes the

Industrial Revolution which changes the cost benefit

cost benefit

cost benefit analysis almost too crazy of a question

analysis almost too crazy of a question

analysis almost too crazy of a question but if you

but if you

but if you look let me calculate let's say 500

look let me calculate let's say 500

look let me calculate let's say 500 years from now and you you you you John

years from now and you you you you John

years from now and you you you you John M sh Som travel through time and are at

M sh Som travel through time and are at

M sh Som travel through time and are at a bookstore looking at the uh entire

a bookstore looking at the uh entire

a bookstore looking at the uh entire history of human civilization in a

history of human civilization in a

history of human civilization in a single book what role does US play like

single book what role does US play like

single book what role does US play like what's the story of us over the next 100

what's the story of us over the next 100

what's the story of us over the next 100 200 300

200 300

200 300 years is it a big role small

years is it a big role small

years is it a big role small role well that's a long time if you you

role well that's a long time if you you

role well that's a long time if you you ask me let's just say the next hundred

ask me let's just say the next hundred

ask me let's just say the next hundred years yeah that's okay I think that's

years yeah that's okay I think that's

years yeah that's okay I think that's still tough that's still tough but

still tough that's still tough but

still tough that's still tough but actually you know I think we're in

actually you know I think we're in

actually you know I think we're in excellent shape M and here's the reason

excellent shape M and here's the reason

excellent shape M and here's the reason going back to the beginning of our

going back to the beginning of our

going back to the beginning of our conversation you asked me you know about

conversation you asked me you know about

conversation you asked me you know about power and I told you the two principal

power and I told you the two principal

power and I told you the two principal building blocks of Power are population

building blocks of Power are population

building blocks of Power are population size and wealth okay and therefore you

size and wealth okay and therefore you

size and wealth okay and therefore you want to look around the world and you

want to look around the world and you

want to look around the world and you want to look at what you think the

want to look at what you think the

want to look at what you think the demographics are of countries like

demographics are of countries like

demographics are of countries like Britain uh the United States

Britain uh the United States

Britain uh the United States uh

uh

uh Iran uh China Russia pick your country

Iran uh China Russia pick your country

Iran uh China Russia pick your country moving forward right what the

moving forward right what the

moving forward right what the demographics look like and how wealthy

demographics look like and how wealthy

demographics look like and how wealthy of those are those countries likely to

of those are those countries likely to

of those are those countries likely to be what you discover very quickly and is

be what you discover very quickly and is

be what you discover very quickly and is that almost every country around the

that almost every country around the

that almost every country around the world is

world is

world is depopulating over

depopulating over

depopulating over time right Russia's going to be much

time right Russia's going to be much

time right Russia's going to be much smaller China's going to be much smaller

smaller China's going to be much smaller

smaller China's going to be much smaller uh 100 years from now than both of those

uh 100 years from now than both of those

uh 100 years from now than both of those countries or it's best we could tell

countries or it's best we could tell

countries or it's best we could tell United

United

United States American women are not having

States American women are not having

States American women are not having lots of babies these days no question

lots of babies these days no question

lots of babies these days no question about that but we have immigration we're

about that but we have immigration we're

about that but we have immigration we're an immigrant culture you're a perfect

an immigrant culture you're a perfect

an immigrant culture you're a perfect manifestation of that you're perfect

manifestation of that you're perfect

manifestation of that you're perfect you're now an American that's wonderful

you're now an American that's wonderful

you're now an American that's wonderful we need more people like you right so

we need more people like you right so

we need more people like you right so when I hear Donald Trump and other

when I hear Donald Trump and other

when I hear Donald Trump and other arguing that immigration's a terrible

arguing that immigration's a terrible

arguing that immigration's a terrible thing this is

thing this is

thing this is ridiculous immig ation is what made us

ridiculous immig ation is what made us

ridiculous immig ation is what made us great right it's when my relatives came

great right it's when my relatives came

great right it's when my relatives came over in the middle of the 19th century

over in the middle of the 19th century

over in the middle of the 19th century from Germany and Ireland right that's

from Germany and Ireland right that's

from Germany and Ireland right that's fascinating like you know because you

fascinating like you know because you

fascinating like you know because you know there's been a huge

know there's been a huge

know there's been a huge concern America and other developed

concern America and other developed

concern America and other developed nations are not having enough children

nations are not having enough children

nations are not having enough children but you you just made me

but you you just made me

but you you just made me realize in the long Arc of History the

realize in the long Arc of History the

realize in the long Arc of History the United States has gotten really damn

United States has gotten really damn

United States has gotten really damn good at integrating immigrants and you

good at integrating immigrants and you

good at integrating immigrants and you and like helping them flourish the whole

and like helping them flourish the whole

and like helping them flourish the whole diversity of uh that that makes up

diversity of uh that that makes up

diversity of uh that that makes up America there's a Machinery of

America there's a Machinery of

America there's a Machinery of integrating other

integrating other

integrating other cultures yeah yeah just very quickly on

cultures yeah yeah just very quickly on

cultures yeah yeah just very quickly on this Sam Huntington's book who are we

this Sam Huntington's book who are we

this Sam Huntington's book who are we yeah uh which in many ways I I love that

yeah uh which in many ways I I love that

yeah uh which in many ways I I love that book but it has one fundamental flaw and

book but it has one fundamental flaw and

book but it has one fundamental flaw and a number of people told him beforehand

a number of people told him beforehand

a number of people told him beforehand that that flaw existed and he didn't fix

that that flaw existed and he didn't fix

that that flaw existed and he didn't fix it but Sam argues in the book that we

it but Sam argues in the book that we

it but Sam argues in the book that we have large numbers of Hispanics in this

have large numbers of Hispanics in this

have large numbers of Hispanics in this country and we're doing a very poor job

country and we're doing a very poor job

country and we're doing a very poor job of integrating them into the mainstream

of integrating them into the mainstream

of integrating them into the mainstream and they're not becoming Americans and

and they're not becoming Americans and

and they're not becoming Americans and because many of them are concentrated in

because many of them are concentrated in

because many of them are concentrated in the southwest of the United States

the southwest of the United States

the southwest of the United States unlike other ethnic groups that were

unlike other ethnic groups that were

unlike other ethnic groups that were spread out all over God's Little Green

spread out all over God's Little Green

spread out all over God's Little Green Acre right we're going to have uh this

Acre right we're going to have uh this

Acre right we're going to have uh this cohesive group of

cohesive group of

cohesive group of Spanish-speaking Americans right who we

Spanish-speaking Americans right who we

Spanish-speaking Americans right who we going to want to break away and the

going to want to break away and the

going to want to break away and the United States is no longer going to be

United States is no longer going to be

United States is no longer going to be you know a reasonably coherent nation

you know a reasonably coherent nation

you know a reasonably coherent nation state he's wrong the all the evidence is

state he's wrong the all the evidence is

state he's wrong the all the evidence is that Hispanics are integrating into the

that Hispanics are integrating into the

that Hispanics are integrating into the American

American

American mainstream uh more quickly and more

mainstream uh more quickly and more

mainstream uh more quickly and more effectively than the European econom uh

effectively than the European econom uh

effectively than the European econom uh the European immigrant groups that came

the European immigrant groups that came

the European immigrant groups that came starting around 1835 if you look at

starting around 1835 if you look at

starting around 1835 if you look at immigration from Europe into the United

immigration from Europe into the United

immigration from Europe into the United States leaving aside the original wasps

States leaving aside the original wasps

States leaving aside the original wasps who came over and founded the place the

who came over and founded the place the

who came over and founded the place the immigrants start coming in large numbers

immigrants start coming in large numbers

immigrants start coming in large numbers in 1835 and we really don't shut the

in 1835 and we really don't shut the

in 1835 and we really don't shut the door until

door until

door until 1924 right starting this is a crude

1924 right starting this is a crude

1924 right starting this is a crude overview starting in 1835 and running up

overview starting in 1835 and running up

overview starting in 1835 and running up till about

till about

till about 1885 it's mainly Germans and Irish

1885 it's mainly Germans and Irish

1885 it's mainly Germans and Irish that's why Germans are the largest

that's why Germans are the largest

that's why Germans are the largest ethnic group to ever come to the United

ethnic group to ever come to the United

ethnic group to ever come to the United States and the Irish are right behind

States and the Irish are right behind

States and the Irish are right behind them these are the European ethnic

them these are the European ethnic

them these are the European ethnic groups we're talking about then starting

groups we're talking about then starting

groups we're talking about then starting in 1885

in 1885

in 1885 uh polls Jews and Italians start coming

uh polls Jews and Italians start coming

uh polls Jews and Italians start coming right uh and the Germans and Irish keep

right uh and the Germans and Irish keep

right uh and the Germans and Irish keep coming and this is why Ellis Island is

coming and this is why Ellis Island is

coming and this is why Ellis Island is opened I think it's 1893 Ellis Island is

opened I think it's 1893 Ellis Island is

opened I think it's 1893 Ellis Island is open because Castle Garden in New York

open because Castle Garden in New York

open because Castle Garden in New York which had handled all the previous

which had handled all the previous

which had handled all the previous immigrants coming across the pond Castle

immigrants coming across the pond Castle

immigrants coming across the pond Castle Garden couldn't handle them all so they

Garden couldn't handle them all so they

Garden couldn't handle them all so they opened up Ellis Island that's why

opened up Ellis Island that's why

opened up Ellis Island that's why somebody like me I can't find my distant

somebody like me I can't find my distant

somebody like me I can't find my distant relatives records in Ellis Island

relatives records in Ellis Island

relatives records in Ellis Island because they came through Castle Garden

because they came through Castle Garden

because they came through Castle Garden right whereas lots of Jews I know lots

right whereas lots of Jews I know lots

right whereas lots of Jews I know lots of Italians I know they can find their

of Italians I know they can find their

of Italians I know they can find their relatives records in Ellis Island

relatives records in Ellis Island

relatives records in Ellis Island because they came through Ellis Island

because they came through Ellis Island

because they came through Ellis Island the point is you had all these

the point is you had all these

the point is you had all these immigrants who came in roughly between

immigrants who came in roughly between

immigrants who came in roughly between 1835 and 1924 when we shut the gates

1835 and 1924 when we shut the gates

1835 and 1924 when we shut the gates this the only time we've ever really

this the only time we've ever really

this the only time we've ever really shut the gates in a meaningful way right

shut the gates in a meaningful way right

shut the gates in a meaningful way right and this is what made America great

and this is what made America great

and this is what made America great right all these people and they made

right all these people and they made

right all these people and they made lots of babies right so in some sense

lots of babies right so in some sense

lots of babies right so in some sense make America great again means getting

make America great again means getting

make America great again means getting in getting more immigrants in well we

in getting more immigrants in well we

in getting more immigrants in well we open the gates again in' 65 MH closed

open the gates again in' 65 MH closed

open the gates again in' 65 MH closed them in 24 open them in 65 I'm

them in 24 open them in 65 I'm

them in 24 open them in 65 I'm oversimplifying the story here because

oversimplifying the story here because

oversimplifying the story here because we didn't completely shut them we almost

we didn't completely shut them we almost

we didn't completely shut them we almost completely shut them in 24 opened in 65

completely shut them in 24 opened in 65

completely shut them in 24 opened in 65 and we've had huge numbers of immigrants

and we've had huge numbers of immigrants

and we've had huge numbers of immigrants flowing in these immigrants who have

flowing in these immigrants who have

flowing in these immigrants who have been flowing in since 65 are not

been flowing in since 65 are not

been flowing in since 65 are not Europeans they're not mainly Europeans

Europeans they're not mainly Europeans

Europeans they're not mainly Europeans they're mainly Hispanic anics and

they're mainly Hispanic anics and

they're mainly Hispanic anics and Asians if you look at those Hispanics

Asians if you look at those Hispanics

Asians if you look at those Hispanics and Asians they're integrating into the

and Asians they're integrating into the

and Asians they're integrating into the American mainstream at a much faster and

American mainstream at a much faster and

American mainstream at a much faster and more effective clip than was the case

more effective clip than was the case

more effective clip than was the case with those immigrants who come came in

with those immigrants who come came in

with those immigrants who come came in in the 19th century and early 20th

in the 19th century and early 20th

in the 19th century and early 20th century the Irish oh my God you know

century the Irish oh my God you know

century the Irish oh my God you know they were treated horribly there's a

they were treated horribly there's a

they were treated horribly there's a book a very famous book that's been

book a very famous book that's been

book a very famous book that's been written called when the Irish became

written called when the Irish became

written called when the Irish became White just think about the title of that

White just think about the title of that

White just think about the title of that book there was discrimination against

book there was discrimination against

book there was discrimination against all these groups right and the worst

all these groups right and the worst

all these groups right and the worst discrimination of course was against

discrimination of course was against

discrimination of course was against Chinese Americans right uh but we've

Chinese Americans right uh but we've

Chinese Americans right uh but we've gotten much better and what we should do

gotten much better and what we should do

gotten much better and what we should do moving forward is redouble our efforts

moving forward is redouble our efforts

moving forward is redouble our efforts to integrate immigrants into the

to integrate immigrants into the

to integrate immigrants into the American mainstream you know Hispanics

American mainstream you know Hispanics

American mainstream you know Hispanics you know Asians of All Sorts because the

you know Asians of All Sorts because the

you know Asians of All Sorts because the fact is that America is rapidly reaching

fact is that America is rapidly reaching

fact is that America is rapidly reaching the point where it's not going to be an

the point where it's not going to be an

the point where it's not going to be an allwhite country right uh I have five

allwhite country right uh I have five

allwhite country right uh I have five children and two of my children are was

children and two of my children are was

children and two of my children are was it Generation Z gen

it Generation Z gen

it Generation Z gen Z gen Z is the last majority

Z gen Z is the last majority

Z gen Z is the last majority white uh generation right subsequent

white uh generation right subsequent

white uh generation right subsequent Generations are not majority white uh So

Generations are not majority white uh So

Generations are not majority white uh So for anybody who's bothered by this I'm

for anybody who's bothered by this I'm

for anybody who's bothered by this I'm not bothered by that but for anybody who

not bothered by that but for anybody who

not bothered by that but for anybody who is bothered by this they better get used

is bothered by this they better get used

is bothered by this they better get used to it because Americans aren't making

to it because Americans aren't making

to it because Americans aren't making enough babies that we can continue to

enough babies that we can continue to

enough babies that we can continue to grow uh population wise in a robust way

grow uh population wise in a robust way

grow uh population wise in a robust way so we need immigration and we're an

so we need immigration and we're an

so we need immigration and we're an immigrant culture and this is a great

immigrant culture and this is a great

immigrant culture and this is a great virtue it has been a great virtue over

virtue it has been a great virtue over

virtue it has been a great virtue over time it should be a source of hope not

time it should be a source of hope not

time it should be a source of hope not worry that's my view that's my view and

worry that's my view that's my view and

worry that's my view that's my view and America when it works is a place that is

America when it works is a place that is

America when it works is a place that is very attractive to immigrants and

very attractive to immigrants and

very attractive to immigrants and immigrants can do very well here and and

immigrants can do very well here and and

immigrants can do very well here and and then the real key moving forward is

then the real key moving forward is

then the real key moving forward is inter marriage right and you have a huge

inter marriage right and you have a huge

inter marriage right and you have a huge amount of in marriage right somebody was

amount of in marriage right somebody was

amount of in marriage right somebody was telling me not too long ago that the

telling me not too long ago that the

telling me not too long ago that the highest intermarriage rates in the

highest intermarriage rates in the

highest intermarriage rates in the United States are among Asian women

United States are among Asian women

United States are among Asian women Asian-American women Asian women and

Asian-American women Asian women and

Asian-American women Asian women and anglos right and uh I say wonderful uh

anglos right and uh I say wonderful uh

anglos right and uh I say wonderful uh and uh great yeah no the more love love

and uh great yeah no the more love love

and uh great yeah no the more love love uh is the fastest way to integrate yeah

uh is the fastest way to integrate yeah

uh is the fastest way to integrate yeah well you don't what you want to do is

well you don't what you want to do is

well you don't what you want to do is you want to eliminate difference yes

you want to eliminate difference yes

you want to eliminate difference yes right you want to eliminate difference

right you want to eliminate difference

right you want to eliminate difference right it's like you know people who say

right it's like you know people who say

right it's like you know people who say I'm an anti semi right I have two

I'm an anti semi right I have two

I'm an anti semi right I have two grandsons who Adolf Hitler would have

grandsons who Adolf Hitler would have

grandsons who Adolf Hitler would have thrown into a guest chamber one of whose

thrown into a guest chamber one of whose

thrown into a guest chamber one of whose first name is John and middle name is

first name is John and middle name is

first name is John and middle name is Mir shimer right yeah this is what you

Mir shimer right yeah this is what you

Mir shimer right yeah this is what you want yeah right Steve Walt's wife and

want yeah right Steve Walt's wife and

want yeah right Steve Walt's wife and his two children would have been thrown

his two children would have been thrown

his two children would have been thrown into a gas chamber by Adolf Hitler right

into a gas chamber by Adolf Hitler right

into a gas chamber by Adolf Hitler right this is what you want you want

this is what you want you want

this is what you want you want intermarriage now there are a good

intermarriage now there are a good

intermarriage now there are a good number of people in some of those groups

number of people in some of those groups

number of people in some of those groups especially among Jews who don't like

especially among Jews who don't like

especially among Jews who don't like inter marriage right but they've lost

inter marriage right but they've lost

inter marriage right but they've lost because I haven't looked recently at the

because I haven't looked recently at the

because I haven't looked recently at the data uh the data among um for inter

data uh the data among um for inter

data uh the data among um for inter marriage rates among uh basically

marriage rates among uh basically

marriage rates among uh basically secular Jews but it used to be around

secular Jews but it used to be around

secular Jews but it used to be around 62% large numbers of Jews marry goam and

62% large numbers of Jews marry goam and

62% large numbers of Jews marry goam and they've lost because of inter marriage

they've lost because of inter marriage

they've lost because of inter marriage inter marriage helps fight tribalism

inter marriage helps fight tribalism

inter marriage helps fight tribalism destructive kind of tribalism exactly

destructive kind of tribalism exactly

destructive kind of tribalism exactly calling me an

calling me an

calling me an anti-semite they haven't met my

anti-semite they haven't met my

anti-semite they haven't met my grandsons my son-in-law nieces that I a

grandsons my son-in-law nieces that I a

grandsons my son-in-law nieces that I a niece that I have nephews that I

niece that I have nephews that I

niece that I have nephews that I have brother-in-laws that I have Jewish

have brother-in-laws that I have Jewish

have brother-in-laws that I have Jewish right come on and this this gives a

right come on and this this gives a

right come on and this this gives a really nice hopeful view of America is

really nice hopeful view of America is

really nice hopeful view of America is is the integration of different

is the integration of different

is the integration of different different cultures different kinds of

different cultures different kinds of

different cultures different kinds of peoples that is a unique property of

peoples that is a unique property of

peoples that is a unique property of America yes but just to go back to where

America yes but just to go back to where

America yes but just to go back to where we started it was not smooth in the

we started it was not smooth in the

we started it was not smooth in the beginning all things are rough in the

beginning all things are rough in the

beginning all things are rough in the beginning all things are rough in the

beginning all things are rough in the

beginning all things are rough in the beginning what advice would you give to

beginning what advice would you give to

beginning what advice would you give to a young person today about how to have a

a young person today about how to have a

a young person today about how to have a career they can be proud of or life they

career they can be proud of or life they

career they can be proud of or life they can be proud of well I think it's very

can be proud of well I think it's very

can be proud of well I think it's very important to make sure that you do

important to make sure that you do

important to make sure that you do something in life that really interests

something in life that really interests

something in life that really interests you my mother used to use this phrase

you my mother used to use this phrase

you my mother used to use this phrase floats your boat you want to do

floats your boat you want to do

floats your boat you want to do something that floats your boat or to

something that floats your boat or to

something that floats your boat or to use another one of my mother's phrase

use another one of my mother's phrase

use another one of my mother's phrase phrases you want to get up you want to

phrases you want to get up you want to

phrases you want to get up you want to do something where you get up out of bed

do something where you get up out of bed

do something where you get up out of bed in the morning with a bounce in your

in the morning with a bounce in your

in the morning with a bounce in your step right so I I think that you know if

step right so I I think that you know if

step right so I I think that you know if your mother and father want you to be a

your mother and father want you to be a

your mother and father want you to be a lawyer and they're pushing you to be a

lawyer and they're pushing you to be a

lawyer and they're pushing you to be a lawyer and you don't want to be a lawyer

lawyer and you don't want to be a lawyer

lawyer and you don't want to be a lawyer you want to be a policeman be a

you want to be a policeman be a

you want to be a policeman be a policeman right don't do what other

policeman right don't do what other

policeman right don't do what other people want you to do because it's very

people want you to do because it's very

people want you to do because it's very important to find a job and occupation

important to find a job and occupation

important to find a job and occupation that you really

that you really

that you really love uh the second thing I would say and

love uh the second thing I would say and

love uh the second thing I would say and this has to do with your point about um

this has to do with your point about um

this has to do with your point about um humility

humility

humility uh uh you want to think about the

uh uh you want to think about the

uh uh you want to think about the humility uis index my friend Steve

humility uis index my friend Steve

humility uis index my friend Steve vanever who teaches at MIT he and I

vanever who teaches at MIT he and I

vanever who teaches at MIT he and I invented this concept we call it the uis

invented this concept we call it the uis

invented this concept we call it the uis humility index and you want to have a

humility index and you want to have a

humility index and you want to have a healthy dose of humility but you also

healthy dose of humility but you also

healthy dose of humility but you also want to have a healthy dose of

want to have a healthy dose of

want to have a healthy dose of uis you want to think you can change the

uis you want to think you can change the

uis you want to think you can change the world you want to think you can make

world you want to think you can make

world you want to think you can make things better for yourself you want to

things better for yourself you want to

things better for yourself you want to take chances you want to think sometimes

take chances you want to think sometimes

take chances you want to think sometimes that you know better than other people

that you know better than other people

that you know better than other people do huis is not a bad thing but at the

do huis is not a bad thing but at the

do huis is not a bad thing but at the same time you have to have humility yeah

same time you have to have humility yeah

same time you have to have humility yeah you have to understand that a man or a

you have to understand that a man or a

you have to understand that a man or a woman has his or her limits and you want

woman has his or her limits and you want

woman has his or her limits and you want to listen to other people people you

to listen to other people people you

to listen to other people people you want to be a good listener right uh so

want to be a good listener right uh so

want to be a good listener right uh so always remember the importance of the

always remember the importance of the

always remember the importance of the uis humility index and the importance of

uis humility index and the importance of

uis humility index and the importance of having healthy doses of both uus and

having healthy doses of both uus and

having healthy doses of both uus and humility speaking of humility you're

humility speaking of humility you're

humility speaking of humility you're mortal like all humans are do you Ponder

mortal like all humans are do you Ponder

mortal like all humans are do you Ponder your mortality are you afraid of it are

your mortality are you afraid of it are

your mortality are you afraid of it are you afraid of

you afraid of

you afraid of death I'm not sure I'm afraid of death

death I'm not sure I'm afraid of death

death I'm not sure I'm afraid of death uh I I don't want to die because I enjoy

uh I I don't want to die because I enjoy

uh I I don't want to die because I enjoy life so much too much fun yeah I you

life so much too much fun yeah I you

life so much too much fun yeah I you know given how horrible the world is

know given how horrible the world is

know given how horrible the world is today I hate to I hate to say that I'm

today I hate to I hate to say that I'm

today I hate to I hate to say that I'm having too much fun but do I find what I

having too much fun but do I find what I

having too much fun but do I find what I do interesting and gratifying I I I do

do interesting and gratifying I I I do

do interesting and gratifying I I I do uh I just love what I do uh and I love

uh I just love what I do uh and I love

uh I just love what I do uh and I love studying you know International politics

studying you know International politics

studying you know International politics and I love being intellectually curious

and I love being intellectually curious

and I love being intellectually curious about all sorts of subjects I love

about all sorts of subjects I love

about all sorts of subjects I love talking to you about this and that uh I

talking to you about this and that uh I

talking to you about this and that uh I mean this is really wonderful and I

mean this is really wonderful and I

mean this is really wonderful and I often tell people you know thank

often tell people you know thank

often tell people you know thank goodness I'm only 28 years old because I

goodness I'm only 28 years old because I

goodness I'm only 28 years old because I do try to behave like I'm only 28 years

do try to behave like I'm only 28 years

do try to behave like I'm only 28 years old but I am well aware of the fact that

old but I am well aware of the fact that

old but I am well aware of the fact that uh as my mother used to say nothing is

uh as my mother used to say nothing is

uh as my mother used to say nothing is forever and that includes me and when

forever and that includes me and when

forever and that includes me and when you're 75 going on 76 you understand

you're 75 going on 76 you understand

you're 75 going on 76 you understand that you have a limited number of years

that you have a limited number of years

that you have a limited number of years left uh and I find that depressing um

left uh and I find that depressing um

left uh and I find that depressing um because I've been I've been very lucky

because I've been I've been very lucky

because I've been I've been very lucky and uh and I feel like I've won the

and uh and I feel like I've won the

and uh and I feel like I've won the lottery and uh I'm very thankful for

lottery and uh I'm very thankful for

lottery and uh I'm very thankful for that and I I'd like to you know make it

that and I I'd like to you know make it

that and I I'd like to you know make it last for as long as possible but uh I do

last for as long as possible but uh I do

last for as long as possible but uh I do understand that you know nothing is

understand that you know nothing is

understand that you know nothing is forever yeah the finiteness of things

forever yeah the finiteness of things

forever yeah the finiteness of things yeah you never think that when you're

yeah you never think that when you're

yeah you never think that when you're young I mean you know you think uh

young I mean you know you think uh

young I mean you know you think uh you're going to live forever and you're

you're going to live forever and you're

you're going to live forever and you're just not going to get old I never

just not going to get old I never

just not going to get old I never thought this would happen that I would

thought this would happen that I would

thought this would happen that I would become 75 years old well you you got you

become 75 years old well you you got you

become 75 years old well you you got you got so much energy and boldness and

got so much energy and boldness and

got so much energy and boldness and fearlessness and and and excitement to

fearlessness and and and excitement to

fearlessness and and and excitement to you that I'm I'm really grateful to see

you that I'm I'm really grateful to see

you that I'm I'm really grateful to see that especially given how much I'm sure

that especially given how much I'm sure

that especially given how much I'm sure you've been attacked for

you've been attacked for

you've been attacked for having uh bold ideas and presenting them

having uh bold ideas and presenting them

having uh bold ideas and presenting them and not

and not

and not losing yeah not losing that youthful

losing yeah not losing that youthful

losing yeah not losing that youthful energy is beautiful to see thank you not

energy is beautiful to see thank you not

energy is beautiful to see thank you not becoming cynical John it's a huge honor

becoming cynical John it's a huge honor

becoming cynical John it's a huge honor to speak with you that you give me so

to speak with you that you give me so

to speak with you that you give me so much time and so much respect and so

much time and so much respect and so

much time and so much respect and so much love I this was a really incredible

much love I this was a really incredible

much love I this was a really incredible conversation thank you so much for

conversation thank you so much for

conversation thank you so much for everything you do in the world for

everything you do in the world for

everything you do in the world for looking out into the world and trying to

looking out into the world and trying to

looking out into the world and trying to understand it and teach us and thank you

understand it and teach us and thank you

understand it and teach us and thank you so much for talking with a silly kid

so much for talking with a silly kid

so much for talking with a silly kid like me is my pleasure thank you very

like me is my pleasure thank you very

like me is my pleasure thank you very much I thoroughly enjoyed it awesome

much I thoroughly enjoyed it awesome

much I thoroughly enjoyed it awesome thanks for listening to this

thanks for listening to this

thanks for listening to this conversation with John mimer to support

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me leave you with some words from

me leave you with some words from Plato Only The Dead have seen the end of

Plato Only The Dead have seen the end of

Plato Only The Dead have seen the end of War thank you for listening and hope to

War thank you for listening and hope to

War thank you for listening and hope to see you next time