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Chinese soldiers preparing
for battle.
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This is what Beijing wants to show
the world.
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With each military drill,
China is drawing ever-closer circles
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00:00:12,550 --> 00:00:13,890
around Taiwan.
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00:00:14,390 --> 00:00:18,300
China has a clear goal: to gain
control over the island.
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China will surely be reunified.
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Are you willing to get involved
militarily to defend Taiwan
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if it comes to that?
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Yes.
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Thatโs the commitment we made.
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The United States is building up its
military presence in the region.
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And is practicing how to sink
Chinese ships.
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00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,670
We're not going to come
to an agreement over Taiwan.
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Wait for the unification to
be achieved.
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Peacefully, I hope.
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Not peacefully, I dread.
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But why are these two superpowers
so fixated on Taiwan?
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What's in it for China and the U.S.?
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And how do people
in Taiwan feel about it?
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It's Taiwan's location that makes
it a geopolitical flashpoint.
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Taiwan has 23 million
inhabitants โ
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and its main island lies only
130 km away from China's mainland.
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These tiny islands right
off the coast are also
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under Taiwanese control.
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And Chinese military drills
around the whole of Taiwan
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are getting bigger and more frequent.
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In recent videos released by China's
People's Liberation Army,
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Beijing has threatened to
encircle the island.
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It sees Taiwan as part of its
territory and says it's ready
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to use force, if necessary,
to get it back.
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We'll talk more about the history
and Taiwan's status later.
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For now, you need to know
that in the late 1940s,
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there was a civil war in China
between Communists and Nationalists.
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The Communists won and took control
of mainland China.
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And the Nationalists fled to Taiwan.
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That laid the groundwork
for today's tensions.
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The U.S. has an ambiguous policy
towards Taiwan.
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Since the late 1970s,
it has recognized Communist Beijing
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as the only legitimate
government of China.
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But it has informal ties
with Taiwan and is seen
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as the island's protector.
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Okay.
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Let's go back to the map
to understand why the U.S.
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and China can't quit Taiwan.
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In some ways, Taiwan's strategic
importance is about three chokepoints
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around the island.
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To the west,
there's the Taiwan Strait.
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It's a key trade route
for both Beijing and Taiwan โ
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and also for everybody else.
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Almost all the world's biggest
container ships pass through here.
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To the north, the Miyako Strait.
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It runs between Taiwan
and these Japanese islands.
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And in the south, the Bashi Strait.
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It runs between Taiwan
and the Philippines.
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For China, these two straits
on either side of Taiwan
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are key strategic gateways
to the Pacific Ocean.
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Taiwan is in the middle
of the Chinese coastline,
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which is very important.
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This is Victor Gao.
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He is a former Chinese diplomat
and vice-president of
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the Center for China and Globalization,
a Beijing think-tank some say
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is close to the Chinese Communist Party.
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Taiwan Island faces the Pacific
directly, and if Taiwan is occupied
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by a foreign country, for example,
it interrupts the continuity
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of the Chinese coastline and
also prevents the Chinese access
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directly to the Pacific Ocean.
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The U.S. says it has no troops
permanently stationed in Taiwan
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but the island plays
an important role in U.S. strategy.
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To understand why, let's look
at the military bases in the region.
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Here are some of China's main
naval bases close to its coast.
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And the U.S. has some of its key bases
in South Korea,
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Japan, and the Philippines.
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If you connect the dots,
you'll see the U.S. bases form a chain.
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Taiwan sits at the heart
of what we call in the United States
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the 'first island chain'.
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David Sacks is an expert
at the Council on Foreign Relations,
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a think-tank in New York City.
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In the past, he worked
at the American Institute in Taiwan,
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which serves as the de facto
U.S. embassy on the island.
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If you look at
the first island chain,
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these are all formal treaty allies
of the United States, or
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close partners, in the case of Taiwan.
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And with that the way it is, the
United States can project power close
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to China's shores, protect its allies
and its interests.
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Conversely, it's very difficult for
the Chinese military to project power
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outside of the first island chain
and threaten the United States
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physically or our interests
in the Indo-Pacific.
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To strengthen this 'island chain',
the U.S. is expanding
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military cooperation with Japan
and the Philippines,
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which are also wary of what they see
as China's expansionist goals.
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For example, just last year the
U.S. gained access to military bases
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in the north of the Philippines.
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Right next to the Bashi Strait,
one of those Chinese gateways
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to the Pacific Ocean we mentioned.
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Here you can see American
and Philippine troops conducting
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exercises in the waters nearby
earlier this year.
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They even sank an old Chinese-built
ship that the Philippine navy
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used in the past:
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a clear message to Beijing.
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And obviously, China is not happy
about the U.S. 'island chain' strategy.
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Come on!
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We are not living
in the 19th century.
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We are not living
in the imperialist century.
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Using this outmoded way
of thinking as if you can
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set up a chain to block, for example,
China from accessing
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the Pacific Ocean, is ludicrous.
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Beijing is rapidly modernizing its navy,
in part to be able to
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break through the chain of U.S. allies.
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For example,
with the 'Fujian' aircraft carrier.
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Here it is on sea trials
earlier this year.
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It's China's third aircraft carrier
and the biggest ship
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in the Chinese navy.
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The number one objective here
is to keep the United States
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out of the region during a conflict.
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So, what we call 'anti-access/area
denial': Prevent the United States
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from being able to defend
our treaty allies and partners.
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So to sum up:
Taiwan's location makes it essential
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to both sides as they try to gain
the upper hand in the region.
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But the rivalry is also about money.
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Big money.
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Economically, the small island
also has an outsize importance
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for both China and the U.S. โ even though
neither officially recognizes
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Taiwan as a country.
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Both China and the U.S. have
significant trade links with Taiwan.
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And much of that business comes
from just one company:
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TSMC โ
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Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing Company.
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It produces microchips.
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00:08:02,070 --> 00:08:05,870
Taiwan makes 90 % of the
most advanced ones in the world.
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00:08:06,870 --> 00:08:09,500
Both the U.S. and China
are dependent on them.
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And so is everybody else.
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There's a good chance TSMC's
semiconductors are in the device
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that you're using to watch
this video right now.
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They are in new cars,
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00:08:23,826 --> 00:08:25,403
fridges,
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and fighter jets.
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Everywhere.
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They're needed to develop
new AI models.
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And U.S. leaders worry that losing
Taiwan to China could
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permanently shift economic tides
against them.
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We don't assume that a region
under Chinese hegemony would be open
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to U.S. trade and investment.
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I think that China
would reorder the region.
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They want the United States to
basically supply them
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with raw materials that are turned
into manufactured goods in China
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and then sold all over the world.
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And there isn't really a role
for the United States or
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other industrialized countries in that.
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00:09:02,030 --> 00:09:05,300
The Chinese economy is already larger
than that of the United States
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00:09:05,309 --> 00:09:07,460
if we use purchasing power parity.
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00:09:07,470 --> 00:09:11,750
China produced more
than 30 million cars in 2023.
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The Americans probably produced
less than half of that.
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So why should anyone believe,
they can have some benefit
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of picking a fight with China?
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No, there is no benefit.
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China does not look
at Taiwan from an economic
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or commercial perspective.
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So why is Taiwan so important
to Beijing then?
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To understand, let's dive
back into history.
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China lost control over Taiwan
during what it calls
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the 'Century of Humiliation' โ
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these caricatures of China
being carved up
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by various foreign powers
might explain why.
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From the mid-19th
until the mid-20th century,
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China was plagued by invasions
and internal disputes.
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This is important,
because that notion
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of humiliation still plays a big role
in Chinese state ideology even today.
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00:10:09,270 --> 00:10:13,600
In 1895, Japan took Taiwan from China
and made it a colony.
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After World War II, the Allies forced
Japan to give it back.
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But at the time,
China was in the middle
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of a civil war:
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00:10:24,193 --> 00:10:25,760
The government of the Republic of China,
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or ROC, was led by Nationalists
under Chiang Kai-Shek.
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00:10:34,510 --> 00:10:37,590
Mao Zedong led Communist forces
against them.
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00:10:39,630 --> 00:10:43,750
In 1949, the victorious Communists
marched into Beijing and
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established the People's Republic
of China on the mainland.
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00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:52,000
The defeated government of
the Republic of China fled to Taiwan.
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That's why there are two governments
that call themselves 'China':
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one on the mainland, the People's
Republic of China, or PRC.
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00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:04,200
And on Taiwan,
the Republic of China, or ROC.
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00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:10,320
The PRC government in Beijing sees
Taiwan as a breakaway province
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and says there is only one China.
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Even though they have never actually
been in charge in Taiwan.
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00:11:16,710 --> 00:11:20,910
Most of the world accepts this
One China policy, including the U.S.
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They don't recognize Taiwan
as an independent country.
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Wait.
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So why is the U.S.
supporting Taiwan then?
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There is also a history to that.
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After the Civil War,
the U.S. initially saw
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00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:39,793
the Nationalist government in Taiwan
as the only real China, rejecting
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the Communist government on the mainland.
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00:11:42,683 --> 00:11:47,350
U.S. soldiers were even stationed in
Taiwan under a common defense pact.
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00:11:48,809 --> 00:11:51,280
The change came in the 1970s.
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The U.S. sought closer relations
with Beijing.
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That meant closing the U.S. embassy
in Taiwan and pulling out U.S. troops.
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00:12:00,990 --> 00:12:04,803
Still, informal ties persisted,
like that de facto embassy.
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00:12:04,803 --> 00:12:08,670
And the U.S. still guarantees to sell
Taiwan weapons.
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00:12:09,070 --> 00:12:11,660
But they have
a deliberately ambiguous policy
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00:12:11,670 --> 00:12:13,929
on whether they would defend Taiwan.
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00:12:14,429 --> 00:12:16,307
It's meant to prevent China
from invading and
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00:12:16,307 --> 00:12:18,870
Taiwan from declaring independence.
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00:12:20,590 --> 00:12:25,070
But that strange limbo has been
the status quo in Taiwan for decades.
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00:12:25,390 --> 00:12:28,050
And it's created realities
on the ground.
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00:12:28,790 --> 00:12:31,843
Taiwan developed from
a Nationalist authoritarian regime
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into one of the strongest democracies
in the region.
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00:12:35,530 --> 00:12:37,020
There are elections,
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00:12:38,388 --> 00:12:39,687
a free press,
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00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:41,710
and civil liberties.
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00:12:42,950 --> 00:12:46,750
Taiwan was first in Asia to legalize
same-sex-marriage.
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00:12:46,750 --> 00:12:49,450
This year a progressive party
was reelected for
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00:12:49,450 --> 00:12:53,090
a third term, vowing to
maintain that tense status quo.
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DW's Taiwan correspondent
Yuchen Li can give us a sense
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00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:00,179
of things on the ground.
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00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,430
Here in Taiwan,
the atmosphere is very different
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00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,380
from what you might read
in the headlines.
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00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:07,910
The tension has become part
of daily life.
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00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,080
One key reason is that people
in Taiwan have been living under
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00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:15,040
the threat of the Chinese
Communist Party for many decades.
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00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,750
The majority of the Taiwanese
prefer to maintain
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00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:23,160
the status quo with China, but how to
do so is a rather polarized debate.
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00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,927
If China wants to bully us, at least
we still have the U.S. and Japan.
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00:13:28,927 --> 00:13:30,506
They are our friends.
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00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,099
I've always been
skeptical of America.
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00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:41,559
But we have no choice, if we can't
get stronger or have enough forces.
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00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:46,756
It's tricky.
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00:13:46,756 --> 00:13:50,796
We should have a friendly
relationship with both of them.
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00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:54,350
It's always been like this.
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00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,350
Ever since the founding of the country,
we've been caught up
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00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:57,380
in this drama.
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00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,506
But one thing is clear
for many Taiwanese โ
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00:14:00,506 --> 00:14:02,980
Taiwan's voice is usually drowned out.
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00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:07,080
Amid the U.S.-China rivalry, many feel
that Taiwan is only 'a pawn'
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00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,510
in the game, and
no matter what comes next,
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00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:14,200
the island should have the right
and autonomy to decide its own fate.
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00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,380
But there is one more factor
that stands in the way of that.
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00:14:18,550 --> 00:14:21,790
Taiwan represents something
for both superpowers.
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00:14:27,870 --> 00:14:30,820
Taiwan has embraced the U.S.
worldview, which promotes
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00:14:30,830 --> 00:14:33,010
democracy and capitalism.
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00:14:33,150 --> 00:14:36,830
China is a one-party system
and a socialist market economy.
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And a major Chinese Communist Party
narrative centers on Taiwan.
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Remember the Century of Humiliation
we mentioned, when China lost Taiwan?
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Well Chinese President Xi Jinping
sees bringing Taiwan back into
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the fold as an important step
in overcoming that humiliation.
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This is part of the
so-called 'national rejuvenation',
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a revival of the Chinese nation
as a great power.
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With Xi Jinping, I think,
you did see some impatience.
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Xi Jinping has clearly put himself
forward as a leader of, you know,
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world historic importance.
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He views himself in a very
similar way, I think,
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to Vladimir Putin, that he's
just not a run-of-the-mill leader.
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He's transformative.
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No one, no country, no single
human being will be able to block
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the peaceful reunification of China
or the non-peaceful
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reunification of China.
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So, we should all call on the United
States: "Don't play with fire!"
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But for the U.S., supporting
Taiwan also means keeping up
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key alliances in the region
and promoting democracy.
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If China were to invade and
annex Taiwan, we would see
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that democracy extinguished,
and it could send chilling effects
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to democracies around the world.
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You would have deep questions
being asked in South Korea,
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Japan, and the Philippines
on whether they can rely on
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the United States for their security.
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Because of where Taiwan is and
what it represents, neither China
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nor the U.S. isable back down.
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And the rest of us are stuck watching
the superpower rivalry play out.
21922
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