All language subtitles for The Irrational S02E06 - The Wrong Side of Maybe (Awafim.tv)

[light percussive music]

♪ ♪

- Onto today's topic.

Why do we learn
the wrong lessons

from low probability events?

Take texting and driving.

We know it's a bad idea.

So why do so many of us
still take that risk?

- Because we're irrational

in some way
you're about to tell us.

- [laughs] OK, OK.

I walked right into that.

But she's right. We are.

Imagine the actual risk of
crashing while texting is 2%.

And every time you don't crash,

you update your internal
risk barometer.

After a while,
you feel so secure

that you're texting even more.

This, my friends, is called
the faulty learning cycle.

Our real risk never drops,

but our feelings
about that risk,

based on our limited experience
with crashing, lie to us.

So the next time you get away
with texting and driving,

remember, you got lucky.

And you could always use
my method,

which is rarely text
and never drive.

[laughter]

- That's a let.

Ball grazed the net.
We both saw it.

- Did we?

Or is your terror at facing
an opponent of my stature

distorting your ocular input?

- Sorry to call again.

It's my first day back
with Dr. Mercer,

and I need my access
restored to his server.

- Oh, sorry, Phoebe.

Also, hello.

Welcome back.

Uh, let me just--

- I suppose you want
your old spot back, huh?

- No, it's OK.

Uh, I'm good here,
under the AC vent.

You two keep working.

- Hm.

Phoebe doesn't feel it yet.

- The power
of the preemptive break.

How could she?

We only just stumbled upon it.

Studies show breaks at work
enhance productivity, right?

But starting the day
with a break...

that's something only
a Mercer-nary could figure out.

- A Mercer-nary?
- Mm-hmm.

[phone rings]

Oh.

- Go ahead.

- It's fine. You can take it.

- I don't care who picks up

as long as it's not
my voicemail.

- Professor Mercer's phone.

It's HDP.

They say they can get you in
with the company founders.

- They can? When?

- This morning?

That might be a little--

actually, that's great.

Yes, thank you.

He'll be there in an hour.

- HDP?

- Horizon Decision Partners.

They're a consulting firm
of forecasters.

- Ultra-forecasters.

It's what they call
the really good ones.

- Oh, are these the people
who claim they can

actually predict the future?

Sounds a little sci-fi.

- No, it's not.

It's data modeling, you know?

You love data.

- Imagine a drug maker

trying to predict
the next pandemic

or a politician looking
to craft new policy

ahead of Supreme Court
decisions.

You'd order
a forecast from HDP.

- It's pretty cutting edge.

They can predict market moves,
sports outcomes,

elections, even wars.

- Between their data and mine,

I can see some real
opportunities

to help people make
better decisions.

- Of course,
they're booked solid for months

with fancier clients.

So we figured out a workaround.

- Rizwan and Simon
already know this,

but I'm debating a new laser
surgery to reduce my scars.

I requested a forecast
of my outcomes

so that I can weigh the risks.

- Sounds like they bit.

- So who can predict which
of you three will drive me?

♪ ♪

- I'll be right back.

- Thank you.

- For a field I only
learned about today,

this office is impressive.

Wow.

- Speaking of offices,
how's it being back?

Fitting like an old shoe?

- Kind of smelling like one.
- [laughs]

Yeah, the boys don't uphold
the Phoebe tidiness standard,

that's for sure.

- The thing is,
Rizwan's the head RA now.

And even if I wanted
to big-foot him,

and I don't,
I've caught up on his work,

and it's fantastic.

So my only question is--

- How to deal with
the pecking order?

What if I say I'll leave
you guys to figure that out?

- I would say,
of everything I've missed,

this is what I miss most.

- I'm afraid
there's been a mistake.

There's nothing on the books
this morning with Dr. Mercer.

Our CEO, Willa,
and our partner, Zed,

are both at a breakfast.

[indistinct chatter]

- That's odd.

So who called us?

- That'd be me.

I'm sorry
for the bait and switch,

Dr. Mercer and--

- Phoebe Duncan.

- I'm Laura Bennett.

I've followed
your career forever.

I didn't think
you'd take a meeting

with an associate forecaster.

But I know you're
the person to call

when there's a serious problem.

- So what's the problem?

I think a lot of people
are about to die,

and I need you
to help save them.

[suspenseful music]

♪ ♪

HDP hired me for my
high-accuracy forecasting

in the transpo sector--

you know, cars, planes, trains.

For some reason,
I really get trains.

And much like this type A,
they're subject to

the always/never paradox.

- Those are systems
that are always in use

but should never fail?

- Though, with transportation,

there's always
a baseline accident risk.

When we forecast, we start our
models off that percentage.

- Tell me if I follow.

You look at what
happened before,

and you adjust the risk
based on current conditions.

- Exactly.

And currently, the mid-Atlantic
corridor of the railway system

is looking at
a perfect storm of risk,

predicting
a mass casualty event

sometime in the next 24 hours.

- That's a pretty
precise window.

- For the next 24 hours,
Line 1 is shut down

due to a bridge repair,
diverting all traffic

to Line 2,
which is about 100 years old

and in desperate need
of servicing.

- Which ups the chance
of derailment or collision.

- By 20%.

Plus, with a spike
in flu cases,

the railway is understaffed.

- It's a holiday weekend,
which must mean more travelers.

- And bad weather to boot.

Any one factor,
the system survives.

But this many?

- This says two days ago,

someone hacked
into Line 2's PTC.

What's that?

- Positive Train Control.

It's an automated safeguard
against crashes,

which is now down.

- So we're suddenly looking
at a looming catastrophe.

- I don't know what'll go wrong
or exactly where,

but the numbers suggest
it will happen.

And it's not just
passengers at risk.

It's rail employees,
all the people living

and working along the route.

- This can't be the first time

that your company's
spotted disaster.

What's HDP's protocol
for intervention?

- That's why I called you,
Dr. Mercer.

We have a policy
of non-intervention.

- So you don't do anything?

- It's Willa's policy.

She feels very strongly
about it.

- Do you have any concrete
evidence you can show her,

a specific event?

- I'm eyeing
four passenger trains

out of New England
this morning.

If any of them leaves
more than 30 minutes late,

they will speed
to make up time,

bringing their odds
of a mass casualty event

up to 87%.

[tense music]

- So are they late?

♪ ♪

- The first two left on time.

The third one,
only 10 minutes late.

But the Orlando Express
is projected

to leave 20 minutes late.

- So far.

- Come on, kids.

We're gonna miss the train.

Put on your fast legs.

- Dad, I looked at the maps.

We can hit every attraction
at the park,

but we'll need to move fast.

- Final boarding call
for the Orlando Express.

- I am all in, bud.

But first, we gotta get
on this attraction.

All right.
All right, are you ready?

1, 2, 3.
- My purse!

[bell ringing]
Mitch!

- Oh, no, no, no.
- Oh, oh.

- Oh, uh, Conductor!

- Please, can you help us?

Nothing like a scare
to start a vacation.

- Well, lucky for us,
we have 22 hours

of gorgeous scenery
to get over it.

- The Orlando Express
just left 32 minutes late.

There's an almost 90% chance

that the system fails
catastrophically.

- Which means
any of these trains

[tense music]

♪ ♪

- Dr. Mercer,
this is our CEO, Willa,

and Zed, our head of data.

- I'm sorry, Dr. Mercer.

But our policy, it's ironclad.

- Help me.

If you forecast something
terrible is gonna happen,

why wouldn't you intervene?

- Because that's just
not what we do here.

- We work for our clients,
which, in this case, is--

- A lumber company looking
to reduce shipping costs.

- We're data scientists,
nothing more.

- So are we.

But our jobs can't just

start and end with data.

We go to amazing lengths
to respond to a disaster.

How could we not do
the same thing to prevent one?

- If we cry the sky is falling,

there are two
possible outcomes.

One, nothing bad happens
and we get sued

for wasting people's
time and money.

Two, disaster still hits
and we get sued

for not warning them sooner.

- But surely, the bigger risk
is loss of life.

- Maybe, or maybe in trying

to stop something
from going wrong,

we inadvertently cause
something else to go wrong.

- You mean the law
of unintended consequences.

- And as Laura well knows,
we like to think of ourselves

as time travelers.

I mean, any interference,

it can disrupt the timeline.

And we can't take that risk.

I'm sorry for wasting
your time, Dr. Mercer.

[tense music]

- Whoa, we're speeding up.

- Think the engineer is trying
to make up time?

- I hope so.

Check-in's at 4:00 tomorrow.

- Just so I have this straight,

the American Railroad
Organization, the ARO,

has a safety system called PTC?

- Yes, Positive Train Control.

- And you want me
to look into a hack

that took down Line 2's PTC,

according to someone at HDP,
ASAP?

- [laughs] You having fun?

- Just flashing back
to all those acronyms

in the FBI handbook.

I'm on it, Alec.

I'll call you back.

- Uh, I almost didn't
recognize the place.

- [laughs] Yeah, it needed
a little personality.

- Alec told me that
he was gonna ask you

to look into the hack.

He wants me to try to get
the American Railroad

Organization to issue
an emergency stop order,

but no luck so far.

- I can't imagine
big three-letter agencies

like to be bossed
around by other ones.

- Well, that's not
really the FBI's purpose.

If we had more than
Laura's forecast in hand,

we could do better.

- Well, I'll tell you this.

Whoever took down
PTC was hardcore.

- Oh?
- Yeah.

FBI Cyber's already
poked into the hack.

No idea.

But whoever did this used
a military-grade virus.

This baby doesn't
just corrupt software.

It ebolas hardware.

The initial strike took down
all the PTC control boxes

on Line 2, and since then,
our hacker has been

destroying new ones
as fast as they're replaced.

- It sounds like one
of those ransomware attacks.

But there's no ransom demand?

- Nada.

And no terrorist
organization has

claimed responsibility either.

- So someone just wants
to make trains

less safe for some reason?

- Mm.

Well, too bad for them,
Kylie's on it.

Once I find them, the only
acronym they'll be saying

is FML.

- Simon, Rizwan,

I'm gonna throw this ball
at your head.

Duck.

I submit to the court
that warnings work,

HDP's justifications be damned.

But Laura believes
the only way to lower the risk

is to shut down the entire
Mid-Atlantic Corridor

until the window
of danger passes.

- Shut down
the entire corridor?

An always/never system
like railways

won't just have an off button.

- It's largely by design,

and I fear
that may work against us.

ARO could issue
an emergency order.

I've asked Marisa
to look into it.

- Yeah, but it'd be
an outside shot

even if Laura's forecast had
Willa and Zed's blessing,

which it doesn't.

- So a different target.

Founders Freight is
the only company

that Laura says can effectively
shut down the corridor.

Getting them to do it
will be a hard sell.

They'll lose money.

So what's the best way

to get them to act
on our warnings?

- Well, I mean, it might take
a minute, but I think we--

- Top of my head,
remember the riff

on Ernst Fehr's costly altruism
paradigm we ran last year?

[light percussive music]

- Totally.

That's a great idea.

- Ernst Fehr?

I'm not familiar.

- Phoebe, can you catch him up?

- In effect,
we'll be asking a company

to forfeit a day's earnings
to avoid something bad.

- Right.

Our costly altruism experiment
helped figure out

who people were
more likely to do that for,

themselves or others.

- We ran two variations.

And Rizwan thought
the risk factor had to be

truly awful,
so we decided on...

- Chum.

[sighs] Have you seen "Jaws"?

Sharks love it.

Humans, not so much.

- We told our participants

they had a chance
to spin a wheel.

If they played,
they'd get $50.

But if the wheel
landed on red,

I'd dump a bucket of chum
on their heads.

- Anything to help
with chapter dues.

- Variation 1, 81% of them
were willing to play.

♪ ♪

[wheel ticking]

- [sighs]

[wheel ticking]

- Worth it!

- Oh!

[laughter, groans]

- Not worth it.

- Next, we told the second
group there'd be

a different consequence
for a red zone spin.

Rather than dump the chum
on them, we'd dump it on...

Who wants to risk
sweet Mrs. Oris?

- Chum Grandma?

No way.

- In our second variation,

only 53% wanted
to risk Mrs. Oris.

[wheel ticking]

♪ ♪

- Oh!

[laughter]

- It's the concept
of social utility.

People are sometimes
more motivated to protect

others than themselves.

- It seems like that's how we
should warn Founders Freight--

frame it that the real damage
is to others, not them.

They could save hundreds,
maybe thousands of lives.

- Talking about so many lives

makes people think in numbers,

which might actually
dull our impact.

- But if we get specific
with social utility

about who could get killed,
like Mrs. Oris,

that could do the job.

Phoebe, can you help me find
an identifiable victim?

- [sighs]

So that's Phoebe.

Back 5 minutes and--

- Casually pantsing
the both of us.

You'll get used to it.

- Just a couple of Kens
getting Barbied.

- It may stop a disaster, though.

We should help.

Mercer-naries fan out.

- Founders Freight CEO,
Denise Franks,

this is Laura Bennett.

And this is Private
First Class Zach Kowalski.

Zach is on a train home
to Dover right now

on special leave
from Fort Sill.

His wife just gave birth
to their first son.

From what he's posting,
Zach is elated.

He has no idea
the danger he's in.

- And you can keep it that way.

Founders Freight owns

70% of Line 2's
physical tracks.

- Help us, Ms. Franks.

Shut down Line 2.

- All we need is 18 hours

to finish the repairs
on Line 1.

- Look, even if I believed
in this forecasting--

- Uh, respectfully,
it's not a matter of belief.

It's not crystals
and tea leaves.

Laura is a data scientist.

It's probability.

- I was with the FAA post 9/11.

Everyone knew
another attack was coming,

so we shut down air traffic
for three days

and nearly bankrupted
the industry.

- You're worried about
unintended consequences.

- We grounded planes
because something might happen.

And that harmed people too.

Sick people got stuck
without their meds.

Auto fatalities went up
with the forced increase

in road traffic.

I'm not making the same mistake
again, Dr. Mercer.

[dramatic music]

♪ ♪

- So much for social utility.

The odds couldn't be clearer.

They say, "Stop the trains."

But Ms. Franks is
afraid of landing

on the lower percentage
side of things.

- In my field, we call that

getting caught
on the wrong side of maybe.

- Which means we have to find
another solution.

If we don't, people
like Private Kowalski

may never get back
to their families again.

- OK, OK.

What if we trigger
a multi-state blackout?

What?

- I mean, I'll write it down.

- It's all right, man.

None of us are
hitting home runs.

- True.

You did suggest that
my family buy the railroad.

- Yeah, that was a joke.
- It sure was.

- Levity lightens stress,
which can promote creativity.

- Uh-huh.

- How goes it?

Any progress?

- Does negative progress count?

- The problem is, our best
ideas are also highly illegal.

- I just talked to Marisa.

ARO won't shut down Line 2.

They say that everything is
technically within regulation--

the tracks, the personnel, signals.

- Does that Include
their busted PTC?

- After the hack,
they issued a waiver

to keep the traffic flowing on
the line, claiming it was safe.

- So a shutdown order
would be an admission

they'd made a mistake.

- We have to find a new play.

Kylie said that whoever hacked
the control boxes

is still taking them down.

She thinks
she's close to tracing

the virus back to its source.

But even if that works,

the system is still
on the brink.

Laura, Zed, was there a crash?

- Not yet that we know of,
though Laura had a near-miss.

- Word got back to Willa that

I went around
the firm's policy.

- And she threatened
to fire Laura.

But as we argued,
I had a sense of clarity.

Now, before we opened
Horizon Decision Partners,

I used to publish forecasts
directly on online forums

so that the public could act
and change things.

I really miss that now.

- I want to help.

What are you thinking?

- How soon can you get
on the news?

- Depends.

- Now, I watched your clips
from the past year--

NBC, PBS.

You're convincing.

I say you go directly
to the public.

- You want me
to tell the public

about a train crash coming?

- We're eight hours
into this thing,

and we've been lucky so far.

But I just ran a forecast.

If we can disrupt
enough passenger trains,

the system will cool
to a safe level.

- Maybe.

But we're not taking
irrationality into account.

I mean, wouldn't that
cause a panic?

- Rizwan's right.

When brains think
they're headed for disaster,

people may freeze,
try to flee, or fight.

- What if the riders revolt
to stop or get off a train

and we actually make
a disaster happen that way?

- We didn't calculate for that.

- They're right.

We don't want to risk
mass panic.

But I might have a way to get
travelers to cancel their trips

before they make them.

- Welcome back.

We are talking about
the cutting-edge science

of ultra forecasting

with the irrational
Dr. Alec Mercer.

- Joy, we're all irrational.

- I know.

I just love saying that.

- So this forecasting stuff
is making me feel

like I'm in "Minority Report."

Can you give us an example
of how it might be used?

- Well, I just had
an interesting chat

with an ultra forecaster
who predicts that

train travel will be
a nightmare

from now until tomorrow.

They landed near 85%
that there will be

nothing but delays
and cancellations

up the whole
Mid-Atlantic Corridor.

- He's forecasting delays
instead of catastrophes

to reduce train travel
without causing panic.

- Big area.

- If it were me,

I'd be looking for any
other way to travel.

- Well, folks,
you heard it here.

We've seen the future,
and it's you

rethinking those train plans.

- Any pointers
before we go in there?

- Just follow my lead.

You're a wizard for tracking
the virus back to this base.

You'll know when to jump in.

- What if they won't talk?

- Marisa put us on this
because she trusts us

to handle it
while she focuses on

preventing a train disaster.

- But I don't know.

- They'll talk.

In fact, as far as they know,
each of them already has.

Captain Francine Sharp.

- Yes.

- Marine Major Jeremy Andre.
- Yes.

- You're aware of the charges
that you abused your access

to steal a viral weapon
from this base,

which was used to hack
the train system?

- That's a lie.

- Try proving that.

- Here's the thing.
I don't need to.

Your partner already confessed.

I guess he didn't see another
option once he saw what we had.

Miss Mercer?

- [clears throat]

So here's the deal.

When you stole the virus,
you scrubbed the code

of anything that could trace it
back to this base.

But what you didn't know
is that the servers here

leave a hidden data stamp
on every file they touch.

And if you know
to look for that,

you can pinpoint that
download to this base

during your joint shift.

- If you know so much--

- Why am I even sitting here?

- Because your partner
only confessed

to helping steal the virus.

- They say you're the only one
that knows what happened next,

that you hacked the PTC
or sold it to someone who did,

which means if you don't talk,
the bulk of this lands on you.

- So what will it be,
truth or consequences?

- [scoffs]

[tense music]

We sold it.

- We sold it.

- It's working.

People are so bailing
on their train trips,

thanks to the professor's
interview.

- And to Kylie for making
the clip go viral,

however she does that.

- Oh, Laura's calling.

- Laura.

- You guys,
so many people canceled

in the last 90 minutes.

The train lines pulled
17% of passenger trains

out of service.

My forecast is changing
as we speak.

- Oh, it is changing,
all right.

With passenger traffic cut,
freighter traffic's up.

- That's fine.
Didn't we expect that?

- Did you also expect that
most of those freighters

are hauling crude oil?

You know what we call those?
Bomb trains.

Because if one explodes,
it'll kill thousands.

- This--no, this wasn't
in my forecast.

There has been no increase
in oil prices.

- Look, watch what happens

when we add those
into the mix.

[beeping]

This is exactly why I didn't
want you to intervene.

- 91%.

- And it's why you're fired.

- Whoa, wait.
What's going on?

- With these bomb trains
in the mix,

chances of a disaster
just went up to 91%.

- Which means...

- When--not if--people die,

it'll be our fault.

[horn blaring]

- A rumor just hit my socials.

Looks like we might be
in for some mega delays.

Should we get off at
the next stop, rent a car?

- We're still moving.

Do you really want to wrangle
all of this off the train?

- And boom.

Kylie magic.

While Cyber goes through
the list of everyone

the Marines sold that virus to,
at least we can see

if anyone's close to crashing,
including those oil trains.

- I hope we can do
better than that.

- Laura, I'm glad
you could make it.

I'm sorry you lost
your job over this.

- Thanks.

- Wait, is that the ARO's
internal train tracker?

- Yep.

I'm that good.

- God, there are way more
oil trains than I thought.

Why are there so many?

- Good question.

The timing of the PTC hacks
is suspicious enough.

Add to that, the hacker is
fighting to keep them offline.

Plus, all of these bomb trains.

It makes me wonder, is someone
playing against us here?

- Now that I can see
where the trains are speeding,

I can forecast which ones
are more likely to crash.

- There's no one better
than Alec

at talking people
into better decisions.

If we can radio the engineers
of the most endangered trains,

then maybe he can get them
to at least slow down.

- Looks like problem train
number 1 is the one

that left 32 minutes late.

The Orlando Express
is speeding and will

pass multiple oil trains.

- OK, we start there.

Only that stunt that
Alec pulled with Joy Reid

probably ticked off
the entire train industry.

They're not gonna be
leaping to connect us

with the engineers.

- Hacking into radio signals
is the oldest hack in the book.

I'm on it.

OK, so bad thought.

What if this guy just laughs
us randos off the line?

- Well, he shouldn't.

Marisa will announce
that she's FBI

and give me the legitimacy
to cut through any doubts.

- OK, then.

3, 2, 1.

We're live.

- Engineer Chip Parsons,

this is Special Agent
Marisa Clark of the FBI.

Do you copy?
- Parsons. Copy.

But this is a private channel.
Dispatch only.

- Then you can imagine how
serious I am contacting you.

I'm investigating the PTC hack,

and there is an imminent
crash risk in your area.

We need you to slow way down.

- I'm on a schedule, ma'am.

That's a no-go
until I hear from my boss.

- What about your boss's boss?

We've been speaking
with the ARO.

Do you know who that is?

- Yes, I do.

- OK, I'm going to give you

to my consultant,
Dr. Alec Mercer.

He can fill you in.

- Hi, Chip.

Is it Chip or Parsons?

- Chip's fine.

- I can understand
how your head may be spinning

from this PTC situation.

- You're telling me.

But all's well here.

We only got PTC on this line
four years ago,

and I managed before that.

I'm just running it
old-school--

blocking signal,
keeping it safe.

- I'm sure you mean to.

But you're going
20 miles over the limit.

- I've been disciplined
for late arrivals.

- I can understand how much
pressure you must feel.

But those late arrivals,

I can't imagine
that they were on you.

- Of course they weren't.

- That's what I'm saying.

The system is over-stressed,

and it's about to break.

But it doesn't have to break
with your train, Chip.

If you slow down
until the system settles,

you will arrive late.

But if you don't,
your passengers may get hurt.

[tense music]

♪ ♪

[beeping]

- Damn. Damn it!

- What's going on?

- I'm being diverted.

I--I gotta go.

- He's gone.

Like, radio off gone.

- And he's speeding up.

What is happening?
- I don't know.

- ARO ticker says
there was an incident

ahead of Chip on the tracks.

A commuter train on Chip's line
almost hit a maintenance truck.

I have video of the incident.

[suspenseful music]

- Go, go!

Out of the way,
out of the way now!

♪ ♪

- They switched it
just in time.

- Was anyone hurt?

- Ticker says
there's no injuries,

but the commuter train
did crack an axle

when it sidetracked
at that speed.

- Looks like the disabled train
is blocking Chip's route.

That's why they diverted him.

- This is nuts.

We have 12 hours until
we're out of the danger zone,

and now all of the north-
and southbound traffic

are sharing
a single set of rails.

- Which means
the Orlando Express

is almost certainly
on a collision course

- Marisa's got ahold
of first responders.

She's readying them
for a possible crash.

- Why would they put two trains
on an actual collision course?

There has to be a protocol
to let them pass.

- There is.

There are side loops
off the main track

made for passing.

FF-388 will be
pulling onto one soon.

Only problem is,
this side loop is 3 miles long,

and our bomb train
is even longer.

- You're saying
that the train's tail

is just gonna hang out
on the main track like that?

How is that even a thing?

- There is a maneuver
for the trains to pass safely.

FF-388 has to move
at just the right time

to let the Orlando Express by.

- That sounds delicate.

- Kylie, who's driving
that freight train?

The ARO may say
it's safe out there,

but you'd need two experienced
engineers to pull that off.

- It looks like it's
a Conrad R. Fisher, age 34.

He's only been driving freight
trains for all of four months.

- We can't rely on this Conrad

to let the Orlando Express
pass by safely,

not with Chip speeding
like he is.

We need to get Chip to stop.

[tense music]

♪ ♪

- [sighs]

- Are you OK?

- What if Willa's right?

We changed the timeline,
and now it looks like

those two trains are
gonna crash.

- The future isn't
written yet, OK?

Whatever happens, we will
get through it together.

Right now, I have an idea
that I need to go over

with just you.

- Why just me?

- Because it's
a very risky Hail Mary.

And if my sister knew
what I was up to,

she'd try to stop me.

[tense music]

♪ ♪

- [sighs]

- Well, in the spirit
of long shots,

I called my mom
to see if we know anyone

who could help shut down
that 100-mile stretch of track.

Turns out, our family divested
from our railroad holdings

too long ago
to have much influence.

- First, I will never get used
to sentences like that.

But seems like we're both
in the same boat here.

- Yeah, I feel that.

- Are we just talking
about the case?

Because I can't help but feel
it's been a little...

- Weird since you came back?

- Exactly.

And I don't want you
to feel weird.

- You either.

[soft music]

Riz and I were talking,
and, uh, it's a new dynamic.

Would it help if I say that I
am intimidated as hell by you?

- What?

No, you're not.

- Are you kidding?

You practically sneezed out
that costly altruism idea.

- Simon, I've been doing this
for years.

- Oh, so you're saying
my insecurity is irrational?

I think Rizwan's feeling it
too, by the way.

He isn't sure whether
to mediate or defer to you

or what.

- I know.

I know.

- So what do we do?

Can you sneeze again
and figure this out?

- I would if I could.

But I promise, with this,

we're all on equal footing.

♪ ♪

- Cyber finally connected
one of the buyers

to the attacks on the PTC.

- Does that mean
we caught our hacker?

- The field team is
arresting him as we speak.

- George Millton,

AKA VenomToxx.

[tense music]

Who hacks trains?

- I don't have any idea
what you're talking about.

- I'm talking about you,
George, the kind of person who

uses a computer virus
to disrupt a safety system

to make trains crash.

What happened?

Did your dog get hit by
a train when you were a kid?

- I told you.

It wasn't me.

- Come on, George.

The Marines you bought it
from gave us your name.

- They're lying.

- OK, you really want
to play that game?

Because your hacks

are gonna cause
a train disaster,

which means that
you're not gonna only be

charged with computer fraud.

You'll be charged with homicide
and possibly terrorism.

- I'm no terrorist.

- You deployed
a military-grade cyber weapon

on a civilian
transportation system.

What would you call that?

Is this some kind of message?

What's the agenda?

- I don't have an agenda.

I have a quote.

- You're a work-for-hire?

Who hired you?

- They left an
envelope full of cash,

and I didn't ask questions.

They just wanted
the PTC boxes down.

- Did they say why?

- I don't know.

- Well, let's start with
what you do know.

- [sighs]

- Is that Kylie again?
- Yeah.

I'll talk to her
after I stop this disaster.

- So how are we doing this?

You said you had a plan?

- I do, but it can't
include you, Rizwan.

I need you to stay
far away from this.

- What about you?

Professor?

- I'm right where I need to be.

[suspenseful music]

- Kylie, I need to see
what's going on here.

- I found a traffic camera
near the crossing.

Just give me a couple seconds
to splice into it.

No damn way.

[suspenseful music]

- This is not a good idea.

♪ ♪

[horn blaring]

- Once again,
my brother chooses crazy.

- It's not entirely crazy.

The crossing he's at has

a motion-activated
hazard sensor.

So as long as he keeps moving,

it's gonna blast
an emergency message

that a person is on the tracks.

The Orlando Express is required
to obey that message.

Chip has to stop.

- So you helped him
figure out how to do this.

- Well, that spot's
a bottleneck.

It should bring
all of Line 2 to a halt.

The only problem is--

- Oh, you only see one problem?

- Chip could bet on
the professor bailing

and leaping off the tracks

instead of braking
the train hard,

risking derailment.

- It's a real life
trolley problem.

One man on the tracks
to save hundreds.

Very Alec.
I'll give him that.

- Chip is irrational.

I mean, if he doesn't stop,
Alec could die.

- Well, my forecast
put the chances

of the train stopping at 90%.

I was very clear
what the other 10% meant.

But he liked his odds.

[tense music]

[horn blaring]

- Chip's alarm has
got to be going crazy.

Why isn't he stopping?

[beeping]

[horn blaring]

- He's banking on me to blink.

I'm banking on him.

- Well, one of you is wrong.

- Can he even stop
at this point?

Is it too late?

- I can't forecast
when it's this close.

[horn blaring]

[beeping]

- Move! Move! Move!

- Brake!

[beeping]

[brakes screeching]

♪ ♪

- This is the Orlando Express.

We had to make
an emergency stop.

Emergency stop.

Line 2 shut down.

Repeat, Line 2 must shut down.

♪ ♪

- All the trains are stopped.

Gotta love a good traffic jam.

Whew.
- So it worked.

Alec didn't die.

The train stopped.

And I only had
a minor heart attack.

- When the Orlando Express
stopped at that choke point,

dispatch was forced to stop
traffic all the way up Line 2.

- Giving us
the system reset we need.

- By the time trains
are moving again,

Line 1's bridge
will be repaired,

and traffic will be
restored on both lines.

Plus, you caught the hacker.

- I just keep wondering,
if we hadn't had the PTC hack,

would things have
gotten so bad?

- No. No way.

PTC was designed to prevent

the situations
that happened today.

- That's what I thought.

Millton has no idea
who hired him,

but whoever it was
also urged him

to keep taking down
the PTC boxes,

even when the bomb trains kept
entering the system.

- So it was all connected?

Someone did all this
counting on a train disaster.

But who would do that?

- Only someone
who would see it coming.

I had a hunch,

and I looked into
your finances.

Guess what I found.

You made a big play
on one of your own forecasts,

but you missed.

You dug yourself
a $3 million hole,

and you had to make it up fast.

- Luckily, one bad bet aside,

you're still the best
at what you do--

so good, in fact,
that you saw that

the train system was overheated

weeks before Laura did
and jumped on it.

- You hired George Millton
to take down the PTC system

to guarantee a disaster,

and then you shorted
train stocks to profit.

- Only you didn't foresee me.

♪ ♪

- You can't prove any of that.

- Oh, but we can.

Along the way,
you made a mistake.

You said you watched me on PBS.

It didn't register then.

But then when I knew
that we were looking

for a forecaster, it hit me.

My PBS talk was
about panic triggers.

That's why you urged me
to go on the news

about an imminent crash

because you were banking on

the resulting panic
to cause one.

Good thing it didn't work.

- That's not evidence.

- No, but we have
your computer now

with your private forecasts,

including one that says adding
bomb trains to the system

will increase
the disaster odds.

- Not only that--the oil exec
who ordered the bomb trains

said you called
with a prediction

that fuel prices
were about to rise.

And if he wanted to win,

he would have to move
that oil fast.

- So you can deny it
if you want, but we got you.

- You could have
killed hundreds.

- And now I predict that
you're gonna go to prison.

- So I've thought
about our problem.

- That we ordered
too many fries?

Sorry, I'm deflecting.

You mean the not knowing
where we all fit

now that you're back situation?

- Give that man a fry.

- Mm.

- The thing is, in light
of the forecasting case,

I think our answer might be
easier than we think.

We have to live
in the discomfort.

- Ew.

That sounds--

- Uncomfortable, I know.

But if I took anything
from watching Laura work,

it's that we need data
to look ahead.

And right now,
we don't have much.

- I guess that's true.

I mean, you just got back.

I know I've changed
since you were here last.

And every day with Simon
is brand new.

- Aw, buddy.

[glasses clinking]

- That's why I think
our best path

is to experiment,
try out different roles,

and muddle to what works.

To figuring it out together.

- To our newest Mercer-nary.

- Oh, also, that name must die.

Non-negotiable.
I will pull legacy rank.

- Fine.

How about The Mercerfuls?

- [laughs]
- Oh, no, I got it.

I got it.
The Professornals.

- Mm-mm.
[laughter]

- Come on.
That one's--that one's good.

- I know I can be stubborn,

but I have to hand it
to you two.

A lot of people are alive
because you acted.

- Does this mean,
when lives are at stake,

HDP will intervene from now on?

- I can't promise that.

But maybe it's not
always/never either.

One thing I'm 100% on--

I never should
have fired Laura.

- Willa has invited me
back to HDP,

this time in
a leadership position.

- With Zed gone,
I need a strong partner

to challenge me now and then.

- That's a smart move.

There's a lot of spectators
in the world,

but not enough heroes.

And it doesn't take
an ultra-forecaster

to envision
an important future for you.

And once you're settled in,

maybe I can even get
that meeting

with the partners on the books.

- You got a deal.

Oh, and I almost forgot.

Peace offering.

- You forecasted
my scar surgery.

- It's the very least
I could do, given everything.

So take a look.

Call me if you have
any questions.

But if you want
the, um, the TL;DR...

- Mm?
- "Too long; didn't read."

- The report says, "Do it."

[light percussive music]

♪ ♪

[solemn music]

♪ ♪

- I know
what you're gonna say.

- Oh, so you also know
that I'm still going to.

♪ ♪

You keep cutting it close
and surviving.

But that doesn't mean
that you can keep

doing dangerous things.

♪ ♪

- I have fallen victim

to a faulty learning cycle.

And I'll be more careful
in the future.

Speaking of,

I got the weather forecast
for my maybe scar surgery.

The odds are 91% in favor,

even factoring in
my opioid addiction.

- So you're doing it?

♪ ♪

- No, I'm not,
at least not now.

- You don't want to get stuck
on the wrong side of maybe.

- Eh, that's part of it.

But when it comes
to making decisions,

forecasting is just
another tool.

It can point
to maybe doing a brave thing,

like what Laura did.

But ultimately,
we have to be comfortable

with our decisions,
and I'm simply not.

All that is to say,

I'd rather focus on
where I am now

than on where
I hope to be someday.

- I like that.

- [sighs]

[laughs]

Good, 'cause I do too.

- You know, I think
I'll also take my comfort

into consideration,
and mine's saying,

put 24-hour armed security
on your brother.

- [laughs]

♪ ♪

[tense music]

♪ ♪

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