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I'm going to leave it at that.
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It's now my great pleasure to introduce
Maynard Orm, who's the president and CEO
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of Oregon Public Broadcasting,
who will introduce Mr. Burke.
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Thank you, Terry, and welcome to this
inaugural lecture series of ICEP.
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I can't go on any further without just
saying a great big thank you to Terry
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Bristol for organizing this once again.
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We're just really thrilled.
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It is a special privilege for me tonight
to introduce our speaker, James Burke.
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Why is that so?
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It is because he is one of the very few
who is able to take difficult and
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sometimes abstract ideas, put them into
context, and translate their meaning for
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mere mortals like me.
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I cherish the nights when, sitting in a
darkened room with the glow from the TV
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set, I heard our speaker present an idea
that excited me so much I couldn't stop
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thinking about it and unfortunately didn't
get very much sleep that night.
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His tangential and integrated thinking has
classified him as a, quote, one of the
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most influential and intriguing minds in
the Western world, end quote.
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For over 30 years, this prolific man has
produced, directed, written, and presented
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award-winning programs for the BBC,
PBS, and the Learning Channel,
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to name a few.
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His mind-transforming series like
Connections 1, 2, and 3, After the
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Warming, The Day the Universe Changed,
The Real Thing, and Tomorrow's World,
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to name a few, have influenced us all.
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He is currently working on the Burke
Knowledge Web, a large interactive website
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due to debut in late 2002.
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Burke holds an MA from Oxford as well as
two honorary doctorates.
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His talk tonight asks the question,
is the internet redefining knowledge?
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I'm assuming that if the answer was no,
he wouldn't be giving this presentation.
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Please welcome our special and celebrated
guest, James Burke.
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Well, that will have exhausted you.
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No, I shall.
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Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.
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It's jolly nice to be back in Portland.
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The weather is so nice.
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It hasn't rained since I got here.
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As you've heard, and as you may know,
I have wasted the last 35 years of my life
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as a science historian and journalist
doing TV programs and writing books and
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magazines and stuff about technological
change and its social effects.
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And in order that you get into proper
perspective of what I want to say tonight,
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which is really about, well, a number of
things, least of all what the title is,
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let me remind you of what the late great
Mark Twain once said when he might have
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been talking about people like me when he
said it.
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He said, in the real world, the right
thing never happens in the right place at
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the right time.
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It is the task of journalists and
historians to rectify this error.
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So I want to put in a bit of
rectification.
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I want to put into general historical
context this evening that some of the
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processes exercising people's minds these
days, what the technology coming down the
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pike is going to do to us, how you best
prepare for it and why that has not been
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easy up until now.
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And I want to argue that the high rates of
innovation we live with today and the
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historical difficulty we've had predicting
innovation accurately up until now and
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finally the opportunities that the coming
technologies will offer to take a
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radically different approach to knowledge
management all spring from the same
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creative moment about 500 years ago when
somebody triggered all this with a
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solution to a small local contemporary
problem that went on to change the world.
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But let me start with predicting the
future because if you get that right,
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you've got it made.
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The unfortunate thing about the future is,
if you think about it, it hasn't happened
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yet.
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And never will, if you get my drift.
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The great Danish quantum physicist Niels
Bohr on the subject once perspicaciously
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said, prediction is extremely difficult,
especially about the future.
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Now, I don't think that was just Danish
humour.
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Well, you never know.
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I think, rather, he was talking about the
humongous number of variables involved in
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any change and those variables multiply
through history.
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Once upon a time, decision making was
extremely simple.
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You could have any colour, Model T Ford
you liked, as long as it was black.
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Today, by the time you get round to
reading the manual, there's been an
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upgrade.
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If you can read the manual in the first
place.
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By the time the high schools are teaching
what they need to teach to keep up with
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innovation, their material is already out
of date.
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And as a consequence, the reaction of the
average person in the street to the flood
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of new technology that overwhelms us every
day always reminds me of the story of the
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depressive who gets a couple of days off
from the clinic where he's being treated,
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goes to the beach to get himself a tan.
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The next day, his psychiatrist back in the
hospital gets a postcard.
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The message on the card reads,
I think, very much like the average
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person's reaction to the present high
rates of innovation because the message on
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the card from the holidaying depressive
reads, having a wonderful time,
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why?
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Let me start with one of the reasons that
happens, why it has been so difficult for
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us so far to second guess change,
to recognize, for example, what unlimited
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bandwidth and technological convergence is
going to do to almost every aspect of our
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lives.
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The challenge of how difficult it can be
to get prediction right was once amusingly
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illustrated by the great modern
philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein.
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He's the guy, you know, who ruined
corporate communications because he once
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said, if anything can be said at all,
it can be said clearly.
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Anyway, somebody once went up to
Wittgenstein and said, what a bunch of
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morons, we must have been back 700 years
ago in the days before Copernicus told us
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how the solar system worked, to have
looked up in the sky and to have thought
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that what we were seeing up there was the
sun going round the earth.
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Well, as any idiot knows, the earth goes
round the sun and you don't need to be
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Einstein to get that.
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To which the great man is said to have
replied, as philosophers will do,
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yeah, yeah, he said.
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But he said, I wonder what it would have
looked like up there if the sun had been
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going round the earth.
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The point being, of course, it would have
looked exactly the same.
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What he was saying was that in any
decision you're constrained by your
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knowledge context, what you know at the
time.
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You're in a box.
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And science and technology are no
exception.
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As an astronomer, if you think the
universe is made of omelets, you design
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instruments to find traces of
intergalactic egg.
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And if you don't find any, no problem,
instrument failure.
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And not, of course, that your view of the
cosmos is wrong, because at any time the
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contemporary view, the view from inside
the box, the company view, is the only
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right one or there would be anarchy.
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We have to have a general agreement on how
to think that we can all stick to at any
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one time.
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Conformity is a security matter.
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Trouble, however, about being in this box,
and you may know this already,
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is that it dictates how you see the future
and plan for it and act on that plan.
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And the problem is, the view from inside
the box is not always what turns out.
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Principally, as I want to show,
because the future is almost never a
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simple linear extension of the present.
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Now, this can become very soon very
embarrassingly obvious to people like
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Gutenberg who thought he'd print a few
Bibles and that would be that.
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Or the head of IBM 50 years ago who said,
take it from me, the world will need five
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computers.
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Or Popular Science magazine the same year
saying, take it from us, those computers
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will never weigh more than one and a half
tonnes.
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Or my favourite prediction, Bill Gates in
1984, 640k ought to be enough for anybody.
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He claims he didn't say it.
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But the trouble with second guessing the
future lies partly in the process of
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change itself and the only thing you can
say with certainty about change is that it
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is uncertain because, as Niels Bohr said,
of the variables involved.
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Because while you're in your box planning
on bringing about change with some new
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idea or some new gizmo, at the same time
in lots of other boxes you don't know
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about, other people are doing precisely
the same thing.
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So even as you decide on your straight
pathway to the future, somebody out there
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is putting a bend in the road.
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Let me illustrate how nonlinear the
process of change can be with a not very
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serious sequence of events from the
history of technology that end in the
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modern world with a modern innovation that
I assure you every single person in this
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room, in this theatre tonight is
intimately acquainted.
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So you should get there, as you were,
before I do.
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One dark and stormy night in 1707 off the
south-western coast of England an English
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admiral called Sir Cloudsley Shovel I had
to change my name is bringing the Great
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British Fleet home to England,
decides to turn right and only one of the
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44 navigators in the fleet says don't do
it, so he does.
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They hit the rocks, the entire British
fleet sinks, all the British fleet sailors
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drown, and so does Admiral Shovel.
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This stimulates the British Parliament to
offer a large prize for better navigation
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techniques, thus prompting a clockmaker
called Huntsman to go looking for better
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steel for a clock spring.
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Now, this is because those of you who sail
will know that if you're going east-west,
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the most important thing you can know is
the exact time back at base.
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If you know that, if you have a clock on
board that tells you that, you know
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precisely how much later or earlier one of
the heavenly bodies came up over the
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horizon, and that tells you where you are,
time zone-wise, if you like, the problem
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of longitude.
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Now, this is a serious matter to us Brits
at the time because we are sailing over
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here to exploit you guys.
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We saw nothing wrong with taxation without
representation.
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What's changed?
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Now, the steel that guy Huntsman finds for
his clock spring is perfect for clock
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springs and, as it turns out, for cutting
other metal.
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So an ironmaker called Wilkinson uses it
to bore out thin-walled water pipes and
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then thin-walled cannon barrels,
which, in spite of the fact that we are at
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war with both of you at the time,
he sells to you and the French.
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Nothing changes.
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A little bit later on, Napoleon uses these
very lightweight cannon barrels to develop
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something called mobile horse artillery
and wins all his battles, except the last
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one.
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Sorry.
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In 1810, Napoleon sets up a prize for
encouraging French inventors and a
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champagne bottle called Apier steps
forward with a brilliant idea.
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Put food into the champagne bottle,
put the cork in and boil it up and kill
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all the germs that nobody knows exist and
preserve the food.
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Ten years later, an English company is
doing it because they bought Apier's
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patent, which they only happen to see
because it is quite literally on the table
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next to the one they went to Paris to buy,
which is a patent for a new
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continuous-process paper-making technique
that allows the first ever toilet roll to
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be made.
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00:12:36,660 --> 00:12:38,700
You see what I mean about innovation being
surprising?
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How could anybody have forecast the toilet
roll from the most frightening of
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navigational problems?
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00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:47,000
English joke.
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00:12:50,410 --> 00:12:54,210
What is happening here is, I think,
the fundamental process involved in
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innovation and the main reason why so far
it has been so hard to second-guess
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change.
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It's the way change happens when things
come together in ways they haven't before
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because when that juxtaposition occurs,
the rules of math change and one-on-one
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00:13:07,910 --> 00:13:08,970
becomes three.
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00:13:09,470 --> 00:13:13,890
The result of the process is more than the
sum of the parts and almost always
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00:13:13,890 --> 00:13:14,930
unpredictably so.
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00:13:15,250 --> 00:13:22,510
I mean, the German 19th century automotive
engineer Wilhelm Maybach puts together the
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00:13:22,510 --> 00:13:27,230
perfume spray and gasoline and comes up
with what we call the carburettor.
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00:13:28,090 --> 00:13:28,690
Another one.
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00:13:28,750 --> 00:13:32,510
Around about the same time, a medical
researcher accidentally spilled some of
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the newly invented artificial dye into a
petri dish containing bacteria.
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00:13:36,830 --> 00:13:41,530
Next morning he sees that it has
preferentially stained and killed only one
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kind of bacteria.
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Bingo.
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Chemotherapy.
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Now, in the face of this kind of
serendipity, the only important question
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that matters is why.
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00:13:49,850 --> 00:13:54,650
What is it about change that makes it so
hard to manage because it is constantly so
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00:13:54,650 --> 00:13:55,170
surprising?
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00:13:55,890 --> 00:13:59,830
Good surprising if it's you doing it to
your enemy on the battlefield or in the
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00:13:59,830 --> 00:14:03,090
marketplace, and bad surprising if it's
hitting you.
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00:14:04,210 --> 00:14:09,050
I believe change is a surprise because of
that knowledge management idea about 500
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years ago that I mentioned, which brought
us all here today and which also happened
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00:14:13,750 --> 00:14:16,530
because of what you might describe as a
surprise.
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One hell of a surprise.
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00:14:18,990 --> 00:14:21,390
And one which also brought us all here
today.
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00:14:21,630 --> 00:14:26,270
But let me first very briefly go back to
the beginning where knowledge management
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00:14:26,270 --> 00:14:32,030
first emerged as a concept in the caves of
Paleolithic prehistory, which is where we
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00:14:32,030 --> 00:14:34,510
get our attitudes and our institutions.
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00:14:35,810 --> 00:14:38,670
Which I believe all start with the first
flint axe.
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00:14:39,710 --> 00:14:44,070
If you think about it at the time,
the first flint tool is the best thing to
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00:14:44,070 --> 00:14:47,030
hit human beings since eating berries and
dirt.
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00:14:48,490 --> 00:14:51,790
Because it makes it possible to go out and
hunt for the lunch on the hoof that is
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00:14:51,790 --> 00:14:52,510
walking past.
220
00:14:53,410 --> 00:14:57,710
And whatever it was we human beings were
going to be, the flint tool in one sense
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00:14:57,710 --> 00:15:01,270
freezes us at that point in our
development, freezes the way we will think
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00:15:01,270 --> 00:15:05,570
and act and organise and innovate from
then until about yesterday.
223
00:15:06,670 --> 00:15:09,730
First of all because if you're going to
hunt, you're going to need noodlers who
224
00:15:09,730 --> 00:15:14,290
will go on making the flint axes and
spearheads and butchering tools.
225
00:15:14,290 --> 00:15:18,790
And then you need a man with a plan or you
won't coordinate the hunt and lunch will
226
00:15:18,790 --> 00:15:19,630
get away.
227
00:15:19,930 --> 00:15:23,050
And then you need lots of people to do
what the man with the plan says.
228
00:15:23,930 --> 00:15:28,070
So you set up a top-down decision-making
process in which, you may have heard this
229
00:15:28,070 --> 00:15:33,090
before, the few get power and reward and
the many are excluded from involvement and
230
00:15:33,090 --> 00:15:34,430
do what they're told.
231
00:15:35,490 --> 00:15:39,150
So when I say we freeze at that point in
our development, it's because while I was
232
00:15:39,150 --> 00:15:43,110
just describing what goes on in
Paleolithic caves, I could as easily have
233
00:15:43,110 --> 00:15:45,450
been describing what goes on in general
motors.
234
00:15:46,570 --> 00:15:51,290
The entire top-down command structure of
modern society starts with the flint axe
235
00:15:51,290 --> 00:15:56,750
and shapes the culture and the way we will
think from then on, which is what
236
00:15:56,750 --> 00:15:58,250
technology always does.
237
00:15:59,190 --> 00:16:05,730
The flint axe kicks off a kind of cultural
cascade effect because its first use
238
00:16:05,730 --> 00:16:10,490
creates a discontinuity because it
introduces the first non-cyclic,
239
00:16:10,490 --> 00:16:15,390
once and for all change, which people get
used to and then want more of,
240
00:16:15,710 --> 00:16:20,170
which they always do, which generates
public expectation of an even better tool
241
00:16:20,170 --> 00:16:23,990
tomorrow, which it always does,
which generates the requirement that the
242
00:16:23,990 --> 00:16:27,790
noodlers will come up with the goods to
satisfy those expectations, which it
243
00:16:27,790 --> 00:16:28,450
always does.
244
00:16:28,810 --> 00:16:32,010
And above all, keep the man with the plan
in power.
245
00:16:32,910 --> 00:16:37,570
Now, because of some work at a laboratory
not too far from where I live in France,
246
00:16:37,570 --> 00:16:44,090
we know that to create the hottest flint
axe on the market about 200,000 years ago
247
00:16:44,090 --> 00:16:49,230
took about 100 extremely precise blows to
a piece of flint in an extremely precise
248
00:16:49,230 --> 00:16:53,530
sequence, taking into consideration the
exact fracturing characteristics of the
249
00:16:53,530 --> 00:16:54,730
stone at each blow.
250
00:16:55,510 --> 00:17:00,470
And to pass on such a skill as a noodler
instructor, you had to be able to instruct
251
00:17:00,470 --> 00:17:05,450
with the same linear exact precision,
which is why, according to one eminent
252
00:17:05,450 --> 00:17:08,410
Dutch paleontologist, language happens.
253
00:17:08,650 --> 00:17:11,510
Language is advanced axe-making.
254
00:17:12,350 --> 00:17:16,670
And like axe-making is linear,
precise, and step-by-step.
255
00:17:16,990 --> 00:17:21,750
And like the axe, language cuts reality
into conceptual pieces you can reassemble
256
00:17:21,750 --> 00:17:22,630
in different ways.
257
00:17:23,570 --> 00:17:26,210
Some thousands of years later,
when the Greeks find themselves in a
258
00:17:26,210 --> 00:17:30,090
situation very like ours today,
where innovative solutions will open up
259
00:17:30,090 --> 00:17:35,430
global markets, they use language to cut
up thought and reassemble it so as to
260
00:17:35,430 --> 00:17:40,410
innovate using logic, which is the flint
axe magnified a million times.
261
00:17:40,710 --> 00:17:44,150
Because as you know, with logic you can
solve problems by putting together two
262
00:17:44,150 --> 00:17:47,310
things you know to produce a third thing
you didn't know.
263
00:17:47,810 --> 00:17:50,330
For example, stars give off light.
264
00:17:50,670 --> 00:17:52,330
Light comes from fires.
265
00:17:52,910 --> 00:17:54,450
Stars are fires.
266
00:17:54,950 --> 00:17:58,010
Pretty good for people with no infrared
spectrometry, right?
267
00:17:58,770 --> 00:18:04,270
What turns this process into the cutting
edge of modern science and technology is
268
00:18:04,270 --> 00:18:09,370
that knowledge management idea I mentioned
500 years ago, triggered, as I said,
269
00:18:09,490 --> 00:18:10,910
by an off-the-wall accident.
270
00:18:11,370 --> 00:18:17,070
It is the rediscovery of America by
Columbus on what he thought was a clear
271
00:18:17,070 --> 00:18:18,230
shot for Japan.
272
00:18:19,650 --> 00:18:21,990
America blows everybody away.
273
00:18:22,670 --> 00:18:27,870
It's not in the two basic databases of the
time, the Bible and Aristotle.
274
00:18:28,550 --> 00:18:29,930
So what the hell is it doing there?
275
00:18:32,170 --> 00:18:35,850
And then all those new animals and
organisms start flooding across the
276
00:18:35,850 --> 00:18:38,190
Atlantic and they're not on Aristotle's
list either.
277
00:18:38,530 --> 00:18:40,110
So what the hell are they doing there?
278
00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:41,830
In the intellectual...
279
00:18:41,830 --> 00:18:45,030
Oh, I forgot to say, and of course,
around the same time Copernicus is saying
280
00:18:45,030 --> 00:18:48,570
the Earth is not the centre of the solar
system and Galileo is saying, you're
281
00:18:48,570 --> 00:18:49,730
right, I can see that.
282
00:18:50,430 --> 00:18:55,470
And the Dutch engineer called Simon Steven
is going around muttering, which means
283
00:18:55,470 --> 00:18:57,530
don't believe in miracles.
284
00:18:57,990 --> 00:19:00,510
And the whole thing is summed up by the
poet John Dunn, the English poet,
285
00:19:00,630 --> 00:19:04,490
who says, the new philosophy calls all in
doubt.
286
00:19:05,670 --> 00:19:09,170
In the intellectual panic that follows,
like can they trust anything they know
287
00:19:09,170 --> 00:19:14,010
anymore, the answer comes from a French
noodler that I blame for absolutely
288
00:19:14,010 --> 00:19:14,530
everything.
289
00:19:15,670 --> 00:19:17,870
His name is René Descartes.
290
00:19:18,390 --> 00:19:20,950
And he comes up with a knowledge
management idea that changes the world.
291
00:19:20,950 --> 00:19:24,510
And he works out how to generate and
handle trustworthy new data without
292
00:19:24,510 --> 00:19:25,770
screwing up.
293
00:19:27,470 --> 00:19:28,350
I'll paraphrase.
294
00:19:28,830 --> 00:19:30,310
Apply methodical doubt, he says.
295
00:19:30,430 --> 00:19:32,310
If the guy says it's definite,
think of it as probable.
296
00:19:32,370 --> 00:19:34,110
If he says it's probable, think of it as
possible.
297
00:19:34,370 --> 00:19:36,490
And if the word is it's possible,
forget it.
298
00:19:38,210 --> 00:19:40,630
And Descartes says, take a reductionist
approach.
299
00:19:41,010 --> 00:19:43,630
Reduce a problem down to its simplest
component part.
300
00:19:43,910 --> 00:19:44,850
You'll know how it works.
301
00:19:45,150 --> 00:19:46,410
You'll see how to fix it.
302
00:19:46,690 --> 00:19:51,630
Methodical doubt and reductionism turn the
process of change into a noodler's
303
00:19:51,630 --> 00:19:52,190
paradise.
304
00:19:52,990 --> 00:19:57,650
And pretty soon the mission statement
becomes, learn more and more about less
305
00:19:57,650 --> 00:19:58,590
and less.
306
00:19:59,490 --> 00:20:03,490
Like a pal of mine at Oxford who got his
doctorate in the 17th century poet
307
00:20:03,490 --> 00:20:05,230
Milton's use of the comma.
308
00:20:10,310 --> 00:20:14,570
You laugh, he is now the head of a
department at a major American university.
309
00:20:16,610 --> 00:20:20,590
Because he did what reductionism requires
you to do to be a success.
310
00:20:20,590 --> 00:20:25,390
Make your specialist niche so small
there's only room for you in there.
311
00:20:28,460 --> 00:20:29,560
And your comma.
312
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,220
And then, and above all, explain yourself
only in gobbledygook.
313
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,640
In this way you are incomprehensible and
therefore irreplaceable.
314
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:44,160
This is one reason why innovation,
it seems to me, is always such a surprise.
315
00:20:44,380 --> 00:20:48,260
Because as reductionism is applied,
the body of knowledge is driven to become
316
00:20:48,260 --> 00:20:52,260
ever more specialist, ever more
fragmented, ever more complex.
317
00:20:52,780 --> 00:20:56,280
So even as a specialist you don't know
what the guys at the next workbench are
318
00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:00,800
doing, scratching their heads at something
so esoteric you don't even know how to
319
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:01,300
spell it.
320
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:06,120
And then letting it loose to interact with
other things that they didn't know were
321
00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:09,200
happening out there and cause change that
nobody expects.
322
00:21:09,380 --> 00:21:12,200
Least of all, the unsuspecting slob in the
street.
323
00:21:13,220 --> 00:21:17,000
Small wonder then that this process
generates the holiday-making depressives I
324
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:21,420
mentioned at the beginning and the
nonlinear toilet-roll innovation sequences
325
00:21:21,420 --> 00:21:23,040
that make planning so difficult.
326
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:28,300
So not surprisingly, most people find
managing change difficult because
327
00:21:28,300 --> 00:21:33,700
Descartes' reductionism has not prepared
us to handle the ripples that spread out
328
00:21:33,700 --> 00:21:34,280
from innovation.
329
00:21:35,120 --> 00:21:36,120
Take one example.
330
00:21:36,460 --> 00:21:41,320
The ripple effects are one very minor
by-product of the early printing press.
331
00:21:42,420 --> 00:21:49,780
In the early 17th century, 1609 I think,
new printed maps updated with information
332
00:21:49,780 --> 00:21:54,800
coming back from voyages make it safer to
go looking for cargos out in the east of
333
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:55,860
China and Japan.
334
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,540
Guys coming back from there with tea and
porcelain come back to Amsterdam and
335
00:22:00,540 --> 00:22:04,240
profit levels of something between six and
seven hundred percent.
336
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:06,260
Everybody wants in on the game.
337
00:22:06,820 --> 00:22:08,020
The problem is cash.
338
00:22:08,660 --> 00:22:13,280
So a new thing is invented called a land
register to register title to your land so
339
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:14,440
you can borrow money against it.
340
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,480
So another new thing has to be invented
called a mortgage company.
341
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,120
Most of the borrowing goes into another
new thing set up to take the risk out of
342
00:22:21,120 --> 00:22:22,580
shipwrecks called insurance.
343
00:22:23,100 --> 00:22:24,600
Now things are safe, safer.
344
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,880
Another new thing is invented to get more
money in called a limited joint stock
345
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:29,280
company.
346
00:22:29,460 --> 00:22:31,860
So there's another new thing called the
stock market.
347
00:22:32,660 --> 00:22:36,260
Running with the help of another new thing
necessary for the purpose invented called
348
00:22:36,260 --> 00:22:37,560
a national bank.
349
00:22:38,120 --> 00:22:41,480
Providing more money through yet another
new thing invented for the purpose called
350
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:42,740
a credit agency.
351
00:22:42,740 --> 00:22:46,820
The whole shebang running thanks to
another new thing invented for the purpose
352
00:22:46,820 --> 00:22:48,800
called a business contract.
353
00:22:49,500 --> 00:22:52,440
Which finds its way into political
arrangements in the contract between
354
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:57,400
citizen and state embodied in another new
thing called the constitution of the
355
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:58,070
United States.
356
00:22:58,860 --> 00:23:01,180
The ultimate ripple effect of printed
maps.
357
00:23:02,360 --> 00:23:03,180
Kind of.
358
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:10,790
The reason ripple effects surprise people
is because if some institutional procedure
359
00:23:10,790 --> 00:23:14,030
works very well, you want to set it in
concrete.
360
00:23:14,910 --> 00:23:17,710
So nothing can prevent it from doing its
valuable work.
361
00:23:17,930 --> 00:23:21,030
Which very soon becomes blocking all
further change.
362
00:23:21,630 --> 00:23:23,690
Because change might bring
destabilization.
363
00:23:24,150 --> 00:23:27,670
That's why people in any institution all
the way from ancient Egypt to the latest
364
00:23:27,670 --> 00:23:31,890
internet startup can very soon find
themselves with one aim in life.
365
00:23:32,450 --> 00:23:37,290
Perpetuating themselves and the procedure
which their institution enshrines.
366
00:23:37,510 --> 00:23:42,010
Whether or not those procedures have been
rendered outdated by events outside the
367
00:23:42,010 --> 00:23:42,470
institution.
368
00:23:43,570 --> 00:23:47,070
And institutional thinking can be a very
powerful tool for ignoring the obvious.
369
00:23:47,910 --> 00:23:51,550
Let me give you a not very serious example
of that kind of tendency from the history
370
00:23:51,550 --> 00:23:52,170
of technology.
371
00:23:53,790 --> 00:23:56,550
Back in Europe at the end of the so called
dark ages.
372
00:23:57,190 --> 00:23:58,290
Late 10th century.
373
00:23:59,510 --> 00:24:01,350
The European economy kicks back into high
gear.
374
00:24:01,390 --> 00:24:04,550
It is generally agreed thanks to the
arrival from one of the Arab countries.
375
00:24:05,110 --> 00:24:07,730
Sicily or Spain of a new kind of loom.
376
00:24:07,730 --> 00:24:11,550
The thing about the new loom is it has
foot pedals freeze the weaver's hands to
377
00:24:11,550 --> 00:24:13,770
throw the shuttle back and forward much
more quickly.
378
00:24:14,130 --> 00:24:17,310
So to produce much more cloth much more
quickly much more cheaply.
379
00:24:17,990 --> 00:24:21,670
The Dutch weaver is the best on the
continent smash every one of these new
380
00:24:21,670 --> 00:24:22,590
looms they can find.
381
00:24:23,150 --> 00:24:26,350
On the ground that quote it will put
people out of work unquote remarkably
382
00:24:26,350 --> 00:24:28,050
modern thinking for the 11th century.
383
00:24:30,110 --> 00:24:33,330
However a generation later when the dust
is settled the loom is in use and now the
384
00:24:33,330 --> 00:24:34,950
trouble is with the traditional thread
makers.
385
00:24:34,970 --> 00:24:38,430
They can't keep up with the old manual
methods because this loom is really making
386
00:24:38,430 --> 00:24:38,770
cloth.
387
00:24:39,430 --> 00:24:43,290
Until the answer comes unexpectedly in the
form of the spinning wheel probably from
388
00:24:43,290 --> 00:24:43,750
China.
389
00:24:44,310 --> 00:24:47,370
You put the wheel and the loom together
and the production of cloth goes up like a
390
00:24:47,370 --> 00:24:47,770
rocket.
391
00:24:48,470 --> 00:24:49,430
More riots.
392
00:24:50,130 --> 00:24:54,430
Because the cloth now for a mass market is
linen made from plants which are cheap
393
00:24:54,430 --> 00:24:57,250
rather than wool made from sheep which are
now expensive.
394
00:24:57,630 --> 00:25:01,370
So the rioters this time are in the well
established woolen industry.
395
00:25:02,010 --> 00:25:05,490
However soon everybody is wearing this
linen and when they wear it out throwing
396
00:25:05,490 --> 00:25:06,010
it away.
397
00:25:06,610 --> 00:25:10,070
So all over 13th and 14th century Europe
there's this gigantic and growing pile of
398
00:25:10,070 --> 00:25:10,730
linen rag.
399
00:25:11,650 --> 00:25:14,530
So the price of paper drops like a stone.
400
00:25:15,530 --> 00:25:18,310
Linen rag is the best raw material you can
get and it's now free.
401
00:25:19,010 --> 00:25:19,890
More riots.
402
00:25:20,830 --> 00:25:25,150
Traditional wool industry again because
parchment is sheep skin and now it's too
403
00:25:25,150 --> 00:25:26,130
expensive to use.
404
00:25:27,050 --> 00:25:28,990
However here we are with enough paper to
stick on the walls.
405
00:25:29,470 --> 00:25:33,090
The scribes are overworked and in demand
and pretty soon the writer's guilds are
406
00:25:33,090 --> 00:25:34,570
going out and shouting in the streets.
407
00:25:34,830 --> 00:25:38,630
They want more wages because suddenly the
pressure is on.
408
00:25:38,850 --> 00:25:41,910
The black death knocks off one third of
the population.
409
00:25:43,070 --> 00:25:45,510
The remaining two thirds are inheriting
like crazy and there is not enough writing
410
00:25:45,510 --> 00:25:48,010
ability to go around for all the
documentation required.
411
00:25:49,590 --> 00:25:52,730
Until Gutenberg solves the problem by
automating it around 1450 with the
412
00:25:52,730 --> 00:25:53,410
printing press.
413
00:25:54,230 --> 00:25:58,130
Riots in that most conservative wool
institutions the Vatican.
414
00:25:58,910 --> 00:26:02,970
The Pope needs a printing press like a
hole in the head because it will encourage
415
00:26:02,970 --> 00:26:04,970
what we would today call free thinking.
416
00:26:05,910 --> 00:26:09,870
Until somebody in the Curia realises that
you can use a printing press to print
417
00:26:10,430 --> 00:26:11,310
indulgences with.
418
00:26:12,410 --> 00:26:14,610
Now for those of you who are not Catholic
let me explain.
419
00:26:14,930 --> 00:26:17,690
An indulgence was a kind of spiritual
credit note.
420
00:26:20,450 --> 00:26:22,110
Pay now, sin later.
421
00:26:24,690 --> 00:26:27,970
Anyway with all the demand for instant
printed salvation that follows Rome makes
422
00:26:27,970 --> 00:26:31,570
a million money to build the Vatican pay
Michelangelo's bill and generally get
423
00:26:31,570 --> 00:26:36,550
involved in certain prestige projects that
make certain simple German clerics madder
424
00:26:36,550 --> 00:26:38,430
than hell with this cash and carry view of
salvation.
425
00:26:38,710 --> 00:26:42,990
One of whom nails up a few mild remarks on
the subject and there thanks to advances
426
00:26:42,990 --> 00:26:46,550
in textile technology and fought every
step of the way is the Protestant
427
00:26:46,550 --> 00:26:47,330
Reformation.
428
00:26:48,850 --> 00:26:52,050
It is a trifle over simplified but you get
my drift.
429
00:26:59,790 --> 00:27:04,830
What I'm saying is standard operating
procedure doesn't like having to handle
430
00:27:04,830 --> 00:27:06,310
ripple effects or the unexpected.
431
00:27:07,050 --> 00:27:09,650
Like the woman who gets into an elevator
as the doors close a man gets in she
432
00:27:09,650 --> 00:27:13,110
doesn't know, the elevator begins to rise
out of the corner of his mouth he says
433
00:27:13,110 --> 00:27:18,710
your room or mine baby and she says if
you're going to argue about it forget it.
434
00:27:23,490 --> 00:27:27,970
The institutionally conservative attitude
to change, to new ways of doing things is
435
00:27:27,970 --> 00:27:32,210
very powerful because once you start on
the institutional path there isn't
436
00:27:32,210 --> 00:27:35,990
supposed to be any deviation from standard
operating procedure and the further from
437
00:27:35,990 --> 00:27:39,490
the start you get the more difficult it is
made to deviate.
438
00:27:39,630 --> 00:27:44,070
Thus socially we live with institutions
and ways of thinking that link us firmly
439
00:27:44,070 --> 00:27:49,090
to that start point because they haven't
changed since they were set up in the past
440
00:27:49,090 --> 00:27:52,710
with the technology of the past to solve
the problems of the past.
441
00:27:53,070 --> 00:27:56,810
So they act like signposts telling us
we're going the right way by obliging us
442
00:27:56,810 --> 00:27:58,730
to look backwards most of the time.
443
00:27:59,130 --> 00:28:04,130
However increasingly these days standard
operating procedure SOP is not necessarily
444
00:28:04,130 --> 00:28:05,090
a good idea.
445
00:28:05,450 --> 00:28:08,910
Tradition and practice has knocked off
more institutions and organisations than
446
00:28:08,910 --> 00:28:10,010
you could shake a stick at.
447
00:28:10,670 --> 00:28:12,530
Don't get me wrong I am not knocking
tradition.
448
00:28:13,110 --> 00:28:15,670
We put a crown on it and live off the
tourist revenue.
449
00:28:20,700 --> 00:28:22,300
So what have we got so far?
450
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,440
The process of innovation makes knowledge
management and prediction difficult
451
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:30,320
because of the way reductionist thinking
puts us all in separate boxes and because
452
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,960
the process of change causes one and one
to make three and because innovation is
453
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:37,340
produced by noodlers who thanks to
reductionism don't know what each other is
454
00:28:37,340 --> 00:28:38,120
up to.
455
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:43,800
So innovation brings unexpected change
very reluctantly accepted by social and
456
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,840
business institutions which are often
inflexible and incapable of encouraging
457
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:48,560
change.
458
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,540
And the problem about the social
institutions it seems to me is that by
459
00:28:52,540 --> 00:28:54,400
definition they can't keep up.
460
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:59,160
Innovation is driven by the relentless
demands of the marketplace and that rate
461
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,140
of innovation as I said before accelerates
through history.
462
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,380
In general somewhere the marketplace is
innovating all the time because entities
463
00:29:07,380 --> 00:29:12,200
that cannot or will not innovate get
replaced by entities that can or will.
464
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:18,020
And there is no way so far that any status
quo preserving backward looking social
465
00:29:18,020 --> 00:29:23,100
institution could ever get too close to
that kind of dynamic future oriented rate
466
00:29:23,100 --> 00:29:23,760
of change.
467
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:28,940
The result may be that we are heading into
the virtual world of the 21st century with
468
00:29:28,940 --> 00:29:34,260
attitudes and social structures that
haven't really changed since the caves and
469
00:29:34,260 --> 00:29:38,700
an ability to manage unexpected
technological change severely hampered by
470
00:29:38,700 --> 00:29:41,600
the specialism generated by Descartes
reductionism.
471
00:29:42,140 --> 00:29:45,460
If this is the case should we all jump out
of the window?
472
00:29:46,740 --> 00:29:47,800
I think not.
473
00:29:48,580 --> 00:29:52,860
For a number of reasons the most important
of which is the killer app every one of us
474
00:29:52,860 --> 00:29:59,540
has called The Brain which it is beginning
to be realized may not do its best work in
475
00:29:59,540 --> 00:30:04,420
the way that has been SOP ever since the
Flint axe froze its development back in
476
00:30:04,420 --> 00:30:05,560
prehistory.
477
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:10,580
What I'm referring to is the sheer scale
of the processes which seem to be involved
478
00:30:10,580 --> 00:30:12,080
in what we call thinking.
479
00:30:12,980 --> 00:30:18,420
Recent guess every healthy brain on the
planet has about 100 billion neurons each
480
00:30:18,420 --> 00:30:22,260
one of which could have up to 50,000
dendrites each one of which could be in
481
00:30:22,260 --> 00:30:24,580
contact with up to 50,000 other dendrites.
482
00:30:24,940 --> 00:30:28,600
Somebody calculated that's about 10
trillion connections.
483
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,540
If you're into combinatorial mathematics
that tells you that the total potential
484
00:30:33,540 --> 00:30:38,240
number of ways a thought can go through
the brain is larger than the number of
485
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:42,820
atoms in the known universe and every one
of you has one.
486
00:30:43,740 --> 00:30:47,660
If you're looking for massively parallel
processing it's between your ears.
487
00:30:48,420 --> 00:30:53,120
So maybe there are one or two things it
can do as well as go down the ever more
488
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:54,760
narrow reductionist path.
489
00:30:55,280 --> 00:31:00,720
Maybe Einstein was right when he said we
are all born with magnificent brains which
490
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,140
formal education then slowly destroys.
491
00:31:10,310 --> 00:31:14,470
I think what he was really talking about
was a strange way that innovative thought
492
00:31:14,470 --> 00:31:19,230
is very often not linear, very often
doesn't happen according to the step by
493
00:31:19,230 --> 00:31:20,010
step procedure.
494
00:31:20,330 --> 00:31:23,630
I mean Einstein himself said he dreamt up
relativity because he had a dream of
495
00:31:23,630 --> 00:31:24,690
riding on a beam of light.
496
00:31:25,130 --> 00:31:29,710
Very often the most innovative solutions
seem to come when the brain is kind of
497
00:31:29,710 --> 00:31:34,410
freed from the nuts and bolts,
defocused, not concentrating on a problem.
498
00:31:34,690 --> 00:31:39,330
So the last thing much creative thinking
appears to be is step by step.
499
00:31:39,970 --> 00:31:47,030
Which explains of course why you are
successfully achieving solving the
500
00:31:47,030 --> 00:31:49,750
enormously complex problem of
understanding me.
501
00:31:50,910 --> 00:31:54,310
I am not referring to my accent because
you are the ones with the accent.
502
00:31:57,170 --> 00:31:59,170
I'm talking about this speak listen event.
503
00:31:59,370 --> 00:32:05,090
If you think about it, if what you were
doing was hearing each sound I said,
504
00:32:05,270 --> 00:32:08,670
going into some kind of lexicon in your
head, running through from top to bottom
505
00:32:08,670 --> 00:32:12,770
each time to identify that sound,
bringing it out and matching it with the
506
00:32:12,770 --> 00:32:15,910
memory of the sound you heard,
saying yep that's it, sticking that on the
507
00:32:15,910 --> 00:32:19,530
end of the sound stream that went before
and saying to yourself that makes sense
508
00:32:19,530 --> 00:32:24,850
and then coming out and listening for the
next sound I was making, then if all you
509
00:32:24,850 --> 00:32:29,250
were accessing in there was a lexicon the
size of the average high school graduate's
510
00:32:29,250 --> 00:32:37,950
vocabulary, wait for this, 12,500 words,
the English language has 414,812 words,
511
00:32:38,490 --> 00:32:39,530
something's wrong somewhere.
512
00:32:40,470 --> 00:32:45,070
However if what you were accessing was the
average high school graduate's vocabulary
513
00:32:45,070 --> 00:32:50,190
of 12,500 words at one millisecond per act
of neural retrieval it would be taking you
514
00:32:50,190 --> 00:32:54,690
12.5 seconds to understand each word I'm
saying and you're not doing that are you?
515
00:32:56,210 --> 00:32:56,710
Good.
516
00:32:59,110 --> 00:33:00,250
So what are you doing?
517
00:33:00,710 --> 00:33:05,910
You are running multiple simultaneous
scenarios ahead of me using the grammar
518
00:33:05,910 --> 00:33:10,650
and the syntax and the content and so on
of my speech so far to power up all the
519
00:33:10,650 --> 00:33:13,810
probable alternatives and in all ways I
will end the word phrase, sentence,
520
00:33:14,170 --> 00:33:17,450
paragraph and as I come on through
powering down the ones you got wrong and
521
00:33:17,450 --> 00:33:21,110
powering up the next set of probable
alternates and powering them down and so
522
00:33:21,110 --> 00:33:23,790
on and doing that as long as I utter
sounds.
523
00:33:24,250 --> 00:33:28,670
What that means of course is that you are
all giving this speech before I am.
524
00:33:31,030 --> 00:33:34,010
And any other speech I might have given.
525
00:33:36,670 --> 00:33:38,170
One wonders why you came.
526
00:33:45,830 --> 00:33:49,510
But that ability to put things together
and run scenarios and stay ahead of the
527
00:33:49,510 --> 00:33:54,310
game which is what survival is all about
what the brain is best at, that seems to
528
00:33:54,310 --> 00:33:57,850
be, you'll be happy to know, why brains
appear to like jokes.
529
00:33:58,610 --> 00:34:03,610
The punch line brings together two
concepts in a way that's new to you and
530
00:34:03,610 --> 00:34:06,630
since that's what the connective structure
of the brain appears to be for,
531
00:34:06,910 --> 00:34:09,910
you laugh in pleasure at having your
connections enriched.
532
00:34:11,250 --> 00:34:13,090
Let me try it on you.
533
00:34:14,730 --> 00:34:20,530
Every brain in this theatre has the
concept bird and the concept fruit in it
534
00:34:20,530 --> 00:34:23,210
and like everything in the brain it's
connected in some way.
535
00:34:23,490 --> 00:34:28,630
Your connection may be bird tree fruit,
bird colour fruit, bird season fruit,
536
00:34:28,950 --> 00:34:29,890
bird eat fruit.
537
00:34:30,090 --> 00:34:35,650
See if I can put a new connection in there
and if I do you will laugh in pleasure at
538
00:34:35,650 --> 00:34:37,090
connectivity enhancement.
539
00:34:38,890 --> 00:34:40,130
Bird fruit.
540
00:34:40,690 --> 00:34:45,110
A drunk goes up to his host at a party and
says with that terrible seriousness of
541
00:34:45,110 --> 00:34:51,430
totally plastered adults and very serious
small children excuse me and the host
542
00:34:51,430 --> 00:34:54,630
turns around and there is the drunk,
plastered, I mean glassy eyed out of it
543
00:34:54,630 --> 00:34:57,110
and the host think there's something wrong
and says yes what's the problem,
544
00:34:57,210 --> 00:35:03,290
what's the problem and the drunk says can
you answer a question and the host says
545
00:35:03,290 --> 00:35:13,450
sure fire away and speaking very carefully
the drunk says do lemons whistle and the
546
00:35:13,450 --> 00:35:16,690
host says no lemons do not whistle why do
you ask and the drunk staggers back and
547
00:35:16,690 --> 00:35:20,490
smacks his forehead in chagrin and says oh
my god in that case I have squeezed your
548
00:35:20,490 --> 00:35:22,130
canary into my gin and tonic.
549
00:35:35,870 --> 00:35:37,370
Enjoy it there are no more jokes.
550
00:35:39,490 --> 00:35:43,590
You see how innovative thinking may act in
some ways just like a good joke but I make
551
00:35:43,590 --> 00:35:48,170
a serious point the brain appears to be
naturally configured for change to work in
552
00:35:48,170 --> 00:35:52,990
the one plus one equals three mode to have
new ideas because its job is to put
553
00:35:52,990 --> 00:35:57,510
together information in new ways and
innovate as that great American Claude
554
00:35:57,510 --> 00:36:02,770
Shannon the inventor of information theory
once said information causes change if it
555
00:36:02,770 --> 00:36:08,130
doesn't it's not information example no
information you are sitting in a seat
556
00:36:08,130 --> 00:36:18,010
information the person next to you has a
communicable disease nobody moving okay so
557
00:36:18,010 --> 00:36:21,570
what I'm saying is that every brain then
is a natural innovator capable a million
558
00:36:21,570 --> 00:36:25,710
times over of managing change so one of
the ways to think innovatively to manage
559
00:36:25,710 --> 00:36:30,370
creatively to second guess the future if
you had the technology back up might be to
560
00:36:30,370 --> 00:36:33,830
use your brain in the way it appears to
have been designed to be used before the
561
00:36:33,830 --> 00:36:39,390
flint axe froze it if that's the case why
have we not done so because of what I said
562
00:36:39,390 --> 00:36:43,450
about technology back up up to yesterday
there was never enough technology
563
00:36:43,450 --> 00:36:48,270
available to involve more than a very few
people in the innovative process and whose
564
00:36:48,270 --> 00:36:53,790
prime job was to keep the political social
or commercial power structure in power and
565
00:36:53,790 --> 00:36:59,230
the community safe well supplied and
stable the argument I am making is that
566
00:36:59,230 --> 00:37:04,750
because the technology of the time shapes
the culture of the time up to now without
567
00:37:04,750 --> 00:37:09,310
the means to offer open access and the
tools to go with it we've been obliged to
568
00:37:09,310 --> 00:37:14,950
live to a certain extent with what I would
call a culture of scarcity in which 99% of
569
00:37:14,950 --> 00:37:19,890
the human race remained illiterate and
excluded and in which it was taken for
570
00:37:19,890 --> 00:37:23,950
granted therefore that only a very few
people would have their say or do their
571
00:37:23,950 --> 00:37:28,690
thing and therefore of course that such
talents were exceedingly rare in the human
572
00:37:28,690 --> 00:37:33,950
race the result of that limitation of
access on the tools of innovation and
573
00:37:33,950 --> 00:37:40,190
self-expression then generated what we
call standards the self-expression by a
574
00:37:40,190 --> 00:37:43,970
very small number of people with access
that set the benchmark that the rest of us
575
00:37:43,970 --> 00:37:49,170
would aim for if we ever got the chance
and in a culture of scarcity we stuck to
576
00:37:49,170 --> 00:37:54,030
those benchmarks for centuries I mean our
educational systems at least where I come
577
00:37:54,030 --> 00:37:58,030
from have not essentially changed since
they were set up in the middle ages to
578
00:37:58,030 --> 00:38:03,310
train priests many of our legal systems
certainly where I come from still use
579
00:38:03,310 --> 00:38:08,430
processes basically unaltered since the
13th century and as good reductionist
580
00:38:08,430 --> 00:38:14,190
followers of Descartes we still admire
people who have a mind like a knife but
581
00:38:14,190 --> 00:38:18,550
consider the possibility that this
apparent aristocracy of rare talent the
582
00:38:18,550 --> 00:38:24,070
people who set those standards those
benchmarks and the product of their brains
583
00:38:24,070 --> 00:38:28,690
I mean the output of people like
Michelangelo Einstein Confucius Newton
584
00:38:28,690 --> 00:38:34,970
Galileo Jefferson were no more than what
you get when only 1% of you gets to do
585
00:38:34,970 --> 00:38:38,830
anything we don't know how many other
kinds of genius there were out there at
586
00:38:38,830 --> 00:38:44,270
the time up to the 20th century because
they were out of the loop illiterate
587
00:38:44,270 --> 00:38:49,750
unconnected and in the country of the
blind the one-eyed man is king what I'm
588
00:38:49,750 --> 00:38:54,570
suggesting by that is that the innovative
process itself may also have been so far
589
00:38:54,570 --> 00:38:58,870
denied the benefit of the kind of ideas
that might have come from non reductionist
590
00:38:58,870 --> 00:39:02,910
approaches like at the very simplest level
what you might get if you relax the
591
00:39:02,910 --> 00:39:08,490
division of labor rule and encourage cross
discipline between disciplines between
592
00:39:08,490 --> 00:39:14,830
professions or accepted input from from
non reductionist abilities like the very
593
00:39:14,830 --> 00:39:20,290
shadowy area the penumbra around
everybody's core competence that we call
594
00:39:20,290 --> 00:39:26,810
experience valuable but informal talent
the trouble with this unquantifiable but
595
00:39:26,810 --> 00:39:31,170
maverick resource was that in the old
world there was no way even if you had the
596
00:39:31,170 --> 00:39:36,170
bandwidth to let it loose to nail it down
to a formal procedure so that you could
597
00:39:36,170 --> 00:39:40,590
harness it encourage it to conform and be
productive when somebody's penumbra
598
00:39:40,590 --> 00:39:44,730
somebody shadowy area of expertise crossed
over somebody else's and that happens all
599
00:39:44,730 --> 00:39:49,150
the time you couldn't do that in a
division of labor world shaped by Adam
600
00:39:49,150 --> 00:39:53,690
Smith but could it be that what's
happening here at the start of the 21st
601
00:39:53,690 --> 00:39:58,530
century is that in kicking off the
scientific revolution Descartes first
602
00:39:58,530 --> 00:40:02,230
great knowledge management tool triggered
a chain of events that has finally given
603
00:40:02,230 --> 00:40:06,890
us the second great knowledge management
tool the kind of information technology
604
00:40:06,890 --> 00:40:12,570
that may enable us to change the way we
solve our problems radically alter the
605
00:40:12,570 --> 00:40:17,810
knowledge management infrastructure and
above all enfranchise some of that talent
606
00:40:17,810 --> 00:40:23,010
out there for the first time if that's the
case what kind of effect will that have on
607
00:40:23,010 --> 00:40:28,050
the general culture well for a start the
potential demand for the technology is
608
00:40:28,050 --> 00:40:34,330
gigantic if the price is right and at a
recent conference I attended run by the
609
00:40:34,330 --> 00:40:39,990
real gurus in the trade the general belief
was that within 15 years or so the most
610
00:40:39,990 --> 00:40:45,610
expensive thing in a computer will be the
plastic housing as for where the demand
611
00:40:45,610 --> 00:40:50,530
for the technology is well I know there
are 6.1 billion people on the planet but
612
00:40:50,530 --> 00:40:56,170
when did you last hear from the other 5.4
like the kid retorts when his mother says
613
00:40:56,170 --> 00:41:04,450
eat your cereals thousands are starving
out there name one thanks to technology
614
00:41:04,450 --> 00:41:08,470
shortfall we in the industrializing
nations have lived on a kind of silent
615
00:41:08,470 --> 00:41:12,850
planet those people out there in the third
world the inner city ghettos outside the
616
00:41:12,850 --> 00:41:17,090
universities never had the means to
express themselves and their wish list
617
00:41:17,090 --> 00:41:21,730
because as I said they were out of the
loop but soon they won't be and I think
618
00:41:21,730 --> 00:41:27,650
the word we're going to hear more than any
other is more it's happened before if you
619
00:41:27,650 --> 00:41:31,070
look at history you see that even in the
technologically advanced communities there
620
00:41:31,070 --> 00:41:35,750
are periods following times like today
when you get major advances in the ability
621
00:41:35,750 --> 00:41:41,270
to generate store and disseminate
information when massive information surge
622
00:41:41,270 --> 00:41:46,270
was triggered followed by high innovation
rates and then major social change and
623
00:41:46,270 --> 00:41:51,390
also there seems to be a kind of shake out
period that follows innovation surge a
624
00:41:51,390 --> 00:41:55,150
kind of period of transitional confusion
while people get used to what the new
625
00:41:55,150 --> 00:41:59,470
technology will allow them to do and then
settle down to as it were codify what it
626
00:41:59,470 --> 00:42:04,670
should do and accept the new shape that it
gives society and this happens as I said
627
00:42:04,670 --> 00:42:10,610
in the past it's not easy I mean after the
printing press came along and you no
628
00:42:10,610 --> 00:42:14,970
longer needed a good memory and years of
living to know anything within a
629
00:42:14,970 --> 00:42:19,150
generation or two of Gutenberg young
people who could read and learn took over
630
00:42:19,150 --> 00:42:24,470
and old people lost their authority and
never got it back here in the United
631
00:42:24,470 --> 00:42:29,610
States today at a society wide level the
present version of that period of
632
00:42:29,610 --> 00:42:35,330
transitional confusion is being called
dumbing down I'd like to argue that we are
633
00:42:35,330 --> 00:42:41,590
not dumbing down most of our community is
being for the first time informationally
634
00:42:41,590 --> 00:42:46,650
enfranchised and we are going through a
long and massive learning curve as a
635
00:42:46,650 --> 00:42:51,950
result and anyway dumbing down happens
frequently in history too back in the 16th
636
00:42:51,950 --> 00:42:55,490
century it was said about the printing
press this gizmo, well they didn't say
637
00:42:55,490 --> 00:43:00,790
gizmo this gizmo will make reading the
infatuation of people who have no business
638
00:43:00,790 --> 00:43:07,310
reading a rumpf in the 18th century Mozart
got kicked down the stairs because they
639
00:43:07,310 --> 00:43:12,530
thought a lot of people thought what he
was doing was junk the school I went to 50
640
00:43:12,530 --> 00:43:18,490
years ago that school Latin stopped being
mandatory and it was said that our brains
641
00:43:18,490 --> 00:43:26,330
would turn to porridge I don't think it
has this may be why our generation is
642
00:43:26,330 --> 00:43:29,990
finding it so difficult to predict change,
first of all because there are more of us
643
00:43:29,990 --> 00:43:34,090
interested in and involved with the
process than ever before but the process
644
00:43:34,090 --> 00:43:38,910
is now moving much faster than the old
modern social systems can handle and
645
00:43:38,910 --> 00:43:42,910
second of all because the so called
information revolution we are supposed to
646
00:43:42,910 --> 00:43:49,030
be going through hasn't even got into
first gear yet if you look at it from
647
00:43:49,030 --> 00:43:54,430
inside the box from the old model point of
view things look pretty scary I mean
648
00:43:54,430 --> 00:43:59,490
sometime in the next 15 years they are
talking about semi-intelligent neural nets
649
00:43:59,490 --> 00:44:04,310
multimedia up the yin yang massively
parallel computing, operating systems
650
00:44:04,310 --> 00:44:08,770
using DNA or light or quantum or all of
the above super computing systems capable
651
00:44:08,770 --> 00:44:13,330
of recreating a virtual human being down
to cellular level and above all write your
652
00:44:13,330 --> 00:44:18,950
own ticket software for virtually every
activity that used to require a human PhD
653
00:44:18,950 --> 00:44:23,230
and all this that will allow the
individual, if they wish, to do everything
654
00:44:23,230 --> 00:44:27,710
from bridge building to non-invasive
surgery to balancing the books to painting
655
00:44:27,710 --> 00:44:33,790
better than Michelangelo or playing better
than Agassi the coming technologies what
656
00:44:33,790 --> 00:44:38,890
I'm saying offer the possibility of
enfranchising the individual's brain way
657
00:44:38,890 --> 00:44:41,410
beyond the access we even boast about
today.
658
00:44:42,270 --> 00:44:46,430
The hot topic in the business community
now is the way the culture is beginning to
659
00:44:46,430 --> 00:44:50,770
demand customisation of product like never
before as people wake up to what the
660
00:44:50,770 --> 00:44:54,570
technology will do for them in ways they
never thought about but the logical
661
00:44:54,570 --> 00:45:00,530
outcome of that is an intriguing thought
the consumer as designer the consumer
662
00:45:00,530 --> 00:45:03,990
whose electronic agent becomes involved in
the process of customising.
663
00:45:04,430 --> 00:45:10,230
Perhaps goods and services entities like
supermarkets or universities will end up
664
00:45:10,230 --> 00:45:15,710
as virtual warehouses where the tools and
materials are available for the consumer's
665
00:45:15,710 --> 00:45:20,670
electronic agent to come and put together
a customised package of what it is the
666
00:45:20,670 --> 00:45:26,870
agent's owner wants if so then what the
new softwares may ultimately mean is to
667
00:45:26,870 --> 00:45:32,450
some extent the end of the intermediary
for centuries in a culture of scarcity
668
00:45:32,450 --> 00:45:36,190
there was so little access and tools
around that if you wanted something done
669
00:45:36,190 --> 00:45:40,890
you had to go to the guy who had the tools
and ask him to make for you a horse shoe
670
00:45:40,890 --> 00:45:48,990
or a sword or a house or an education
today thanks to the reductionist hangover
671
00:45:48,990 --> 00:45:51,990
and the fact that we're only at the start
of this information revolution we still
672
00:45:51,990 --> 00:45:57,430
operate like that through intermediaries
take representative democracy if you think
673
00:45:57,430 --> 00:46:03,290
about it a perfect 18th century solution
to an 18th century problem lousy dangerous
674
00:46:03,290 --> 00:46:08,230
roads and no telecommunications so what
you do is you find a couple of fools with
675
00:46:08,230 --> 00:46:12,610
time to spare and a horse and you send
them up to the capital to represent the
676
00:46:12,610 --> 00:46:16,770
local hayseeds now the roads are much too
dangerous for them to come back the next
677
00:46:16,770 --> 00:46:21,110
day and say have you changed your
political minds so return journeys not too
678
00:46:21,110 --> 00:46:25,350
frequent but regular return journeys are
arranged after a number of decades these
679
00:46:25,350 --> 00:46:29,710
horse-owning fools become known as
politicians and their return journeys
680
00:46:30,430 --> 00:46:35,570
elections 300 years later we have perfect
roads and telecommunications coming out of
681
00:46:35,570 --> 00:46:41,550
your ears and the same lumbering 18th
century system and as for political choice
682
00:46:41,550 --> 00:46:46,070
would we ever accept only two flavors from
Baskin Robbins
683
00:46:54,590 --> 00:46:58,230
representative democracy and any other
form of intermediary infrastructure and
684
00:46:58,230 --> 00:47:03,510
that pretty much relates to every social
and business institution will not survive
685
00:47:03,510 --> 00:47:07,010
in a world where individualism will have
real meaning for the first time in history
686
00:47:07,010 --> 00:47:12,910
centralized authorities over simple right
or wrong ideologies charismatic leaders
687
00:47:12,910 --> 00:47:18,250
with silver tongues and well hidden track
records won't survive when it's easy for
688
00:47:18,250 --> 00:47:24,770
your electronic agent to take a very close
look persuasion is a lot harder when the
689
00:47:24,770 --> 00:47:30,430
audience is well informed as I know to my
cost and it's going to become even harder
690
00:47:30,430 --> 00:47:35,210
you give people an inch they take a mile
and the only systems we've had in
691
00:47:35,210 --> 00:47:39,250
operation up to now in our culture of
scarcity have offered less than an inch
692
00:47:39,250 --> 00:47:44,010
people's electronic agents are going to
want more than that they're going to want
693
00:47:44,010 --> 00:47:49,530
in on the game all the way in and that
will cause the biggest social changes in
694
00:47:49,530 --> 00:47:54,790
history and if history is anything to go
by it isn't going to be easy first because
695
00:47:54,790 --> 00:47:59,070
the institutions are not going to want to
give up power willingly or in a hurry and
696
00:47:59,070 --> 00:48:02,730
second because of that transitional phase
I mentioned before the fact that through
697
00:48:02,730 --> 00:48:07,650
history the technology always moved a bit
faster than the social processes could
698
00:48:07,650 --> 00:48:11,970
keep up many institutions are handling
this problem today in what you might
699
00:48:11,970 --> 00:48:14,650
describe a skyscraper mode you know the
story of the man who falls off the top of
700
00:48:14,650 --> 00:48:17,730
the skyscraper as he falls past the 77th
floor somebody calls out to ask him how
701
00:48:17,730 --> 00:48:23,850
he's doing he shrugs and replies now
falling past the 54th floor so far so good
702
00:48:24,830 --> 00:48:29,770
surprising how many institutions are
ignoring the upcoming sidewalk the other
703
00:48:29,770 --> 00:48:33,290
way to handle it of course is with an
attempt to catch up with innovation by
704
00:48:33,290 --> 00:48:36,250
matching the brain and the technology a
bit better because now the technology is
705
00:48:36,250 --> 00:48:40,750
beginning to mimic the capabilities of the
brain it's becoming semi-intelligent
706
00:48:40,750 --> 00:48:46,250
holistic distributed low power high
storage cheap the catch up approach I'm
707
00:48:46,250 --> 00:48:49,610
talking about involves the other key
effect of the new technologies that I
708
00:48:49,610 --> 00:48:52,850
haven't mentioned yet it's the way the new
technologies can bring any kind of
709
00:48:52,850 --> 00:48:59,290
education to people anywhere from a Dallas
high rise to a mud hut outside Bangalore I
710
00:48:59,290 --> 00:49:02,610
won't go on about distant learning because
I'm sure you know all about that but maybe
711
00:49:02,610 --> 00:49:08,070
we need to introduce some new educational
modes the product in a sense of what the
712
00:49:08,070 --> 00:49:14,270
new technologies allow us to do to lay
alongside our reduction systems to support
713
00:49:14,270 --> 00:49:17,790
them in a different way you see the reason
I say that is because most of the
714
00:49:17,790 --> 00:49:21,530
environmental and cultural problems that
we face in the world today are the product
715
00:49:21,530 --> 00:49:25,550
of what reductionism and technology
shortfall have done over the centuries
716
00:49:25,550 --> 00:49:31,210
solved a million problems one at a time by
taking them apart that's given us the
717
00:49:31,210 --> 00:49:36,310
highest standard of living in history and
the destruction of the Amazon rainforest
718
00:49:36,310 --> 00:49:41,030
greenhouse effect acid rain the ozone hole
depletion of oil and fish stocks a world
719
00:49:41,030 --> 00:49:45,890
shaped and motivated by the effects of
past colonialism and all the short term
720
00:49:45,890 --> 00:49:50,810
view effect that result from not seeing
the holistic forest for the reductionist
721
00:49:50,810 --> 00:49:56,010
trees inevitable historically we didn't
have the technology to think any other way
722
00:49:56,010 --> 00:50:01,050
but soon in terms of what people do with
their lives as I said the technology will
723
00:50:01,050 --> 00:50:05,090
be doing most of the old reductionist
things that used to take human beings a
724
00:50:05,090 --> 00:50:10,390
pencil chewing lifetime and it seems to me
the worst way to prepare for what comes
725
00:50:10,390 --> 00:50:16,190
after that is to go on limiting education
to the kind that used to train medieval
726
00:50:16,190 --> 00:50:20,710
priests in which you were judged
intelligent or stupid because you passed
727
00:50:20,710 --> 00:50:25,750
or failed a set of tests of literacy and
numeracy designed to exclude all but the
728
00:50:25,750 --> 00:50:32,910
very few and that very few as in western
very few any minute now technology is
729
00:50:32,910 --> 00:50:36,510
going to make the whole shebang I've been
talking about a really global matter not
730
00:50:36,510 --> 00:50:41,010
the irrelevant small scale matter of how
much of the global market your company
731
00:50:41,010 --> 00:50:44,410
will get or how you sell your stuff in a
hundred different cultures but the
732
00:50:44,410 --> 00:50:49,570
humongous possibility that the global
community won't necessarily lie down and
733
00:50:49,570 --> 00:50:55,730
do it the western way the vast illiterate
majority out there are still a
734
00:50:55,730 --> 00:51:00,810
kaleidoscope of diversity with their roots
firmly in their own cultures and
735
00:51:00,810 --> 00:51:06,230
information technology is going to enhance
that diversity empower it, support it
736
00:51:06,230 --> 00:51:10,670
foster it, make it viable however small
the group in ways we never could before
737
00:51:10,670 --> 00:51:14,890
when the best we could do was pretty crude
stuff colonise a country, make them speak
738
00:51:14,890 --> 00:51:20,970
British and wear wigs in their law courts
except you guys for some strange reason
739
00:51:22,650 --> 00:51:26,970
you wouldn't have won if it hadn't been
for French money you know that don't you?
740
00:51:27,950 --> 00:51:31,030
anyway I think diversity is a really good
thing because if you think about it that's
741
00:51:31,030 --> 00:51:34,910
how nature has solved the problem of
change since the very beginning I don't
742
00:51:34,910 --> 00:51:39,370
know if you've ever noticed but in the way
organic life seems to evolve to become
743
00:51:39,370 --> 00:51:43,330
more and more ordered in the way for
example you are born as a blob and you end
744
00:51:43,330 --> 00:51:48,070
life as a very sophisticated adult and not
very often the other way around in the way
745
00:51:48,070 --> 00:51:52,210
this happens life seems to treat the
second law of thermodynamics you know the
746
00:51:52,210 --> 00:51:56,570
one that says everything left alone falls
apart, decays things left alone,
747
00:51:56,670 --> 00:52:01,470
hot things left alone go cold,
cups of coffee intimate friends should you
748
00:52:01,470 --> 00:52:06,110
be here life seems to treat this
fundamental law of thermodynamics much the
749
00:52:06,110 --> 00:52:09,970
same way as my Italian friends treat
government regulations
750
00:52:14,550 --> 00:52:18,910
I love Italy, it's not a country it is a
disease for which happily there is no cure
751
00:52:20,250 --> 00:52:23,510
but anyway what I'm talking about this
attitude towards thermodynamics is
752
00:52:23,510 --> 00:52:28,550
manifested in the way that the very
successful life forms the ones that
753
00:52:28,550 --> 00:52:32,510
develop beyond what you might describe as
the primeval Southern California life form
754
00:52:33,330 --> 00:52:41,370
get born, lie on the beach die seem to
succeed in direct relation to their own
755
00:52:41,370 --> 00:52:45,410
ability to appear to at least temporarily
dodge the implications of thermodynamics
756
00:52:45,410 --> 00:52:50,570
and handle environmental change by
changing themselves becoming more complex
757
00:52:50,570 --> 00:52:57,650
as a species by developing varieties of
themselves each one each one adapted to
758
00:52:57,650 --> 00:53:02,130
many different location specific kinds of
forms of energy so that no matter how bad
759
00:53:02,130 --> 00:53:06,830
the bad weather gets and no matter how
long it lasts one of the varieties will
760
00:53:06,830 --> 00:53:11,310
survive and through that the species in
other words the more complex the species
761
00:53:11,310 --> 00:53:15,150
is the better its response to change
repertoire is likely to be and the better
762
00:53:15,150 --> 00:53:22,710
its chances diversity being basically good
for survival it seems to me that the
763
00:53:22,710 --> 00:53:27,130
diversity I'm talking about in the social
sense in the near future won't work the
764
00:53:27,130 --> 00:53:33,190
old way there's just no time we can in the
time available give everybody a PhD and
765
00:53:33,190 --> 00:53:37,910
anyway it's too late for that I think what
we need as I said are some new additional
766
00:53:37,910 --> 00:53:43,590
educational modes that are more inclusive
and less exclusive because we have to get
767
00:53:43,590 --> 00:53:48,370
the knowledge out there fast and it's got
to be knowledge with a new shape first of
768
00:53:48,370 --> 00:53:50,990
all because the technology is going to
make it possible to express your talents
769
00:53:50,990 --> 00:53:55,950
perhaps especially in the virtual reality
world in ways that aren't just words and
770
00:53:55,950 --> 00:54:00,810
numbers and anyway in the chaotic and
innovative environment of tomorrow if we
771
00:54:00,810 --> 00:54:05,590
try to organise ourselves by the old
representative division of labour top down
772
00:54:05,590 --> 00:54:11,150
way there'll be anarchy because that old
culture of scarcity way only maintain
773
00:54:11,150 --> 00:54:16,690
stability through the application of what
we call mushroom management keep them in
774
00:54:16,690 --> 00:54:18,510
the dark and feed them a lot of manure
775
00:54:21,610 --> 00:54:26,330
it's too late for that people everywhere
already know just enough to know that
776
00:54:26,330 --> 00:54:32,510
there's one hell of a lot that they should
know now some of us are working on ways of
777
00:54:32,510 --> 00:54:35,790
making that knowledge more available in
what you might describe if you wanted to
778
00:54:35,790 --> 00:54:39,650
use fancy words as post reductionist forms
that kind of match the kind of thinking
779
00:54:39,650 --> 00:54:43,370
and what you can do with the new
technology ways that don't necessarily cut
780
00:54:43,370 --> 00:54:48,710
and slice the material into isolated
specialist segments I'd like to show you a
781
00:54:48,710 --> 00:54:53,450
couple of seconds you better answer that
I'd like to show you a couple of seconds
782
00:54:53,450 --> 00:54:57,770
of what I'm doing I'm working on a thing
which you could crudely call a sort of
783
00:54:57,770 --> 00:55:01,790
small knowledge web in which all the
elements of various kinds of data from
784
00:55:01,790 --> 00:55:06,350
widely differing fields humanities arts
and sciences as it were are all connected
785
00:55:06,350 --> 00:55:11,050
all in some way to all a little bit like
the brain works so whatever subject area
786
00:55:11,050 --> 00:55:16,730
or target data you choose to go to to get
to it you travel along a path to the data
787
00:55:16,730 --> 00:55:21,430
that reveals several things about your
target it's wider context the way it is
788
00:55:21,430 --> 00:55:25,750
not necessarily the product of a linear
sequence of events the ripple effects it
789
00:55:25,750 --> 00:55:30,730
could cause the advantage of such an
approach I suppose I would argue is that
790
00:55:30,730 --> 00:55:36,070
entering the web is easy it's not
frightening it doesn't require special
791
00:55:36,070 --> 00:55:40,910
qualifications but any gateway will do so
you come at the material in a way that
792
00:55:40,910 --> 00:55:45,770
suits your particular background if you
want to get at it through ice cream start
793
00:55:45,770 --> 00:55:49,230
with ice cream if you want to go at it
through high energy physics go at it
794
00:55:49,230 --> 00:55:53,030
through high energy physics I'll just show
you this for a couple of seconds I have to
795
00:55:53,030 --> 00:55:56,430
tell you that what I'm going to show you
is not the software I will be using
796
00:55:56,430 --> 00:56:03,130
finally because I'm not anywhere near
finished this web consists of 2,200 people
797
00:56:03,130 --> 00:56:08,970
linked 17,000 ways and I've done about
1,600 but I have a skeleton structure of
798
00:56:08,970 --> 00:56:14,110
the web I can show you and maybe just give
a vague feel for how you'll be able to
799
00:56:14,110 --> 00:56:19,670
journey through it the final software will
give it an appearance and a mode of
800
00:56:19,670 --> 00:56:25,030
function after we have gone out in
gigantic number of focus groups to talk to
801
00:56:25,030 --> 00:56:29,350
teachers about if they had a tool like
this how they would expect it to work for
802
00:56:29,350 --> 00:56:35,650
them and for the kids in the school so
this is not that this is just a skeleton
803
00:56:35,650 --> 00:56:40,470
on which to hang some of the early work
this is what you might describe as the
804
00:56:40,470 --> 00:56:44,790
kind of standard knowledge we've been
using up until now and the thing about it
805
00:56:44,790 --> 00:56:51,310
is that if you know this guy Ferdinand de
Lesseps then you know about either
806
00:56:51,310 --> 00:56:57,330
engineering or canal building or 19th
century French engineering and canal
807
00:56:57,330 --> 00:57:01,570
building because this guy Ferdinand de
Lesseps built the Suez Canal okay now if
808
00:57:01,570 --> 00:57:04,630
you're the kind of person who knows about
Ferdinand de Lesseps the chances are
809
00:57:04,630 --> 00:57:08,310
you're not the kind of person who knows
about this one that is a woman called
810
00:57:08,310 --> 00:57:12,910
Jenny Lind she was known as the Swedish
nightingale in the middle of the 19th
811
00:57:12,910 --> 00:57:16,550
century and she people claim that she
possibly had the greatest voice of all
812
00:57:16,550 --> 00:57:22,050
time if you know all about her the chances
are you don't know anything about this guy
813
00:57:22,050 --> 00:57:27,130
Saint Simon 19th century French thinker
invented a new kind of Christianity for
814
00:57:27,130 --> 00:57:32,330
businessmen strange man shot himself in
the head six times and missed
815
00:57:35,450 --> 00:57:41,010
if you know about him the chances are you
don't know much about this one Alston one
816
00:57:41,010 --> 00:57:46,530
of the great early American romantic
painters what I'm saying is that what we
817
00:57:46,530 --> 00:57:51,790
tend to do in the old way is to silo put
knowledge into silos so that you know
818
00:57:51,790 --> 00:57:55,710
about one lot but you tend not to know
about another now the name of my game of
819
00:57:55,710 --> 00:58:00,930
course as you'd expect is to show ways in
which these people are actually linked so
820
00:58:00,930 --> 00:58:04,370
let's take a look at this particular bunch
I won't go right through it because you'll
821
00:58:04,370 --> 00:58:10,470
get bored you're probably bored already
that's tough luck okay take Mr Brewster
822
00:58:10,470 --> 00:58:14,090
Brewster is a 19th century early 19th
century crystallographer he invented the
823
00:58:14,090 --> 00:58:18,190
kaleidoscope as a matter of interest but
his work was very valuable when it came to
824
00:58:18,190 --> 00:58:22,870
Marie Curie trying to measure the charge
above the pitch blend that she was working
825
00:58:22,870 --> 00:58:27,550
on before she discovered radioactivity her
father-in-law was a follower of that
826
00:58:27,550 --> 00:58:31,150
nutcase I told you about who shot himself
in the head Monsieur Saint-Simon and one
827
00:58:31,150 --> 00:58:36,250
of his followers also was this guy who
built the Suez Canal for which Verdi was
828
00:58:36,250 --> 00:58:41,670
invited to write the opening music a
little number called Aida he wrote this
829
00:58:41,670 --> 00:58:45,030
some time after he wrote an absolutely
dreadful little number called Imaz Nadieri
830
00:58:45,030 --> 00:58:50,790
so that this lady could sing the lead role
Jenny Lind made a bomb we say it in
831
00:58:50,790 --> 00:58:54,030
English you say that a million she made
millions of dollars because P.T.
832
00:58:54,230 --> 00:58:55,870
Barnum remember him P.T.
833
00:58:55,870 --> 00:58:59,630
Barnum three ring circus person invited
her to come to America on a tour that he
834
00:58:59,630 --> 00:59:03,190
would organize well she made so much money
she got married and retired and I'll
835
00:59:03,190 --> 00:59:07,290
finish in a second Barnum who kicked off
the great you know the greatest show on
836
00:59:07,290 --> 00:59:14,530
earth three ring circus blah blah blah
turned down one day a fail safe high wire
837
00:59:14,530 --> 00:59:21,710
act which was a gyroscopically controlled
wheelbarrow designed by Elmas Berry who of
838
00:59:21,710 --> 00:59:26,190
course invented the gyroscope now if you
take a second look at these people yes
839
00:59:26,190 --> 00:59:29,830
they're linked and they're linked of
course in more ways than one oh god I hate
840
00:59:29,830 --> 00:59:36,710
doing this hang on a minute here we go yes
now you see for example I'll be quick
841
00:59:36,710 --> 00:59:41,490
Brewster came up also with Pisa
Electricity Marie Curie's lover Langevin
842
00:59:41,490 --> 00:59:46,330
invented the sonar down here Jenny Lind do
you see this guy Hans Christian Anderson
843
00:59:46,330 --> 00:59:50,430
when he wasn't writing children's stories
he was writing pornographic letters to
844
00:59:50,430 --> 00:59:51,050
Miss Lind
845
00:59:55,210 --> 01:00:03,350
okay she ignored them now what you get
when you take that process to its absurd
846
01:00:03,350 --> 01:00:09,990
conclusion which is what I've done is this
this this is not the real software but
847
01:00:09,990 --> 01:00:14,030
it'll give you a smell now I'm sorry the
guy's way back there you can't read the
848
01:00:14,030 --> 01:00:17,510
little words and there's nothing I can do
about that I'm really sorry but here for
849
01:00:17,510 --> 01:00:23,350
example we're looking at Lister see this
this guy Lister L-I-S-T-E-R and here are
850
01:00:23,350 --> 01:00:27,290
Lister's immediate important contacts the
people he worked with the people he
851
01:00:27,290 --> 01:00:34,690
influenced and so on one of whom was let's
say I don't know Pasteur here is Pasteur
852
01:00:34,690 --> 01:00:39,970
and he has Pasteur's local contacts and
people one of whom was a man called Koch
853
01:00:39,970 --> 01:00:45,310
the man who discovered the tubercle
bacillus Koch was knew a lot of people one
854
01:00:45,310 --> 01:00:49,810
of whom was a man called Liebich and
Liebich was a real mover and shaker you
855
01:00:49,810 --> 01:00:54,750
can tell look at the number of people he
knew and worked with and every time we're
856
01:00:54,750 --> 01:00:57,850
looking at that of course all these little
yellow people are the people that they
857
01:00:57,850 --> 01:01:05,750
knew and this is one page out of 2,200 so
you see what I'm hoping is that it will
858
01:01:05,750 --> 01:01:11,590
probably exhaust a teacher's desire to
it'll probably give a teacher enough so
859
01:01:11,590 --> 01:01:15,850
that she won't he won't exhaust that web
in a whole year I mean to say of course
860
01:01:15,850 --> 01:01:20,670
that each one of those nodes obviously
comes with a potted biography and you know
861
01:01:20,670 --> 01:01:27,490
pictures and graphics and if relevant
paintings, music recordings and so on and
862
01:01:27,490 --> 01:01:32,610
so forth the thing about this business of
making the material more accessible is
863
01:01:32,610 --> 01:01:36,030
really you're talking about transferring
power and knowledge out to the individual
864
01:01:36,030 --> 01:01:41,530
much more than ever before as a virtual
unlimited bandwidth really kind of
865
01:01:41,530 --> 01:01:46,230
fragments information media into a
thousand sources that really leads to a
866
01:01:46,230 --> 01:01:51,110
few final questions when almost every
aspect of life goes virtual what will
867
01:01:51,110 --> 01:01:55,470
happen to the nation state when frontiers
of local laws and customs no longer have
868
01:01:55,470 --> 01:02:00,370
any meaning if I can buy my goods anywhere
on the planet who taxes the purchase who
869
01:02:00,370 --> 01:02:04,770
makes the goods who has the jobs in which
case what happens to my national
870
01:02:04,770 --> 01:02:08,850
commercial structures my national
employment strategies my national ability
871
01:02:08,850 --> 01:02:15,070
to provide social services my nation when
I can educate myself in any classroom on
872
01:02:15,070 --> 01:02:19,370
earth through distant learning exposed to
influences and information from a thousand
873
01:02:19,370 --> 01:02:24,410
different sources what happens to my local
cultural values when online electronic
874
01:02:24,410 --> 01:02:30,210
agents working 24 hours a day to represent
me go out onto the web and bring back what
875
01:02:30,210 --> 01:02:34,070
my profile tells the agent I want will I
ever get anything other than
876
01:02:34,070 --> 01:02:39,430
self-gratification will I ever emerge from
starring in my own utterly personal
877
01:02:39,430 --> 01:02:44,950
virtual reality paradise and if all I hear
is the news I want to hear what does that
878
01:02:44,950 --> 01:02:49,210
do to my political and social opinions and
in any case how do you run a country when
879
01:02:49,210 --> 01:02:53,490
every individual's electronic agent is
inputting every individual's political
880
01:02:53,490 --> 01:02:57,890
opinion on every issue in every section of
the country every second of the day a
881
01:02:57,890 --> 01:03:03,150
night 186,000 times a second what happens
to the old pre-internet structures like
882
01:03:03,150 --> 01:03:07,130
the European Union or United States when
the internet removes the limitations of
883
01:03:07,130 --> 01:03:10,330
time and space from international
commercial and political relations and on
884
01:03:10,330 --> 01:03:16,770
the international level whose law operates
in cyberspace moving from a culture of
885
01:03:16,770 --> 01:03:20,550
scarcity to a culture of abundance isn't
going to be easy to leave behind the
886
01:03:20,550 --> 01:03:24,970
comfort of believing that only specialists
are valuable or of living by standards
887
01:03:24,970 --> 01:03:30,330
established for you by somebody else my
guess is the first effect of that open
888
01:03:30,330 --> 01:03:34,130
access that period of transition I
mentioned will show itself in some ways
889
01:03:34,130 --> 01:03:37,710
that are turbulent and perhaps negative at
the artistic level during this transition
890
01:03:37,710 --> 01:03:44,510
will it be a world of home videos and
illiterate scribblings and in science how
891
01:03:44,510 --> 01:03:48,530
will the average person even with access
to global databases make a meaningful
892
01:03:48,530 --> 01:03:52,390
contribution to whether or not to spend
billions of dollars in one aspect or other
893
01:03:52,390 --> 01:03:57,150
of invertebrate paleozoology in other
words will open access and the closing of
894
01:03:57,150 --> 01:04:00,930
the gulf between the ordinary person and
the world of information also bring with
895
01:04:00,930 --> 01:04:06,290
it at least temporarily a welter of
mediocrity instability, mindlessness and
896
01:04:06,290 --> 01:04:15,230
self-gratification the like of which has
never been seen before yes this side of
897
01:04:15,230 --> 01:04:20,470
the educational revolution which it will
also bring meanwhile maybe we could try a
898
01:04:20,470 --> 01:04:26,170
few moves relax the division of labour
rule become more flexible realise that
899
01:04:26,170 --> 01:04:30,330
already an institution that is utterly
satisfied with what it's doing is probably
900
01:04:30,330 --> 01:04:36,990
dead and doesn't know it see that if as an
institution or an individual you stand
901
01:04:36,990 --> 01:04:40,710
still for too long now just as in the
jungle sooner or later something will eat
902
01:04:40,710 --> 01:04:45,730
you recognise that in the virtual mobile
individualistic demanding marketplace of
903
01:04:45,730 --> 01:04:49,370
tomorrow there will be so many
alternatives washing around in that sea of
904
01:04:49,370 --> 01:04:53,470
information that the newly enfranchised
individual will be just like Admiral
905
01:04:53,470 --> 01:04:59,390
Shovel in desperate need of a lighthouse
in desperate need of an education tailored
906
01:04:59,390 --> 01:05:04,750
to give the specific tools for their
specific problems now our brains,
907
01:05:04,750 --> 01:05:08,690
quintessential examples of innovative
convergence at work have always been able
908
01:05:08,690 --> 01:05:13,830
to handle these issues and now thanks to
our technology perhaps so will our social
909
01:05:13,830 --> 01:05:18,930
and cultural institutions if we don't use
the technology to open a crack in that box
910
01:05:18,930 --> 01:05:23,230
that Descartes put us into we will not be
ready for the upheaval as we shift from a
911
01:05:23,230 --> 01:05:28,310
culture of information scarcity to the
free for all that will be the first free
912
01:05:28,310 --> 01:05:34,550
for all in history the situation we face
reminds me very much of things something
913
01:05:34,550 --> 01:05:37,290
that happened to me when I was covering
the Apollo missions the space missions for
914
01:05:37,290 --> 01:05:42,830
the BBC 100 years ago in the stone age I
used to find myself with my colleagues in
915
01:05:42,830 --> 01:05:48,130
Moscow from time to time and in a dark bar
somewhere a long way from the commissars
916
01:05:48,130 --> 01:05:52,410
one of the locals would sidle up to us and
engage us in conversation and sooner or
917
01:05:52,410 --> 01:05:57,170
later they asked the same question they
said how do you guys in the western
918
01:05:57,170 --> 01:06:02,790
capitalist world survive all that
dangerous confusion and anarchy and we
919
01:06:02,790 --> 01:06:07,930
said what dangerous confusion and anarchy
and they used a word that encapsulates
920
01:06:07,930 --> 01:06:15,690
everything that challenges us in future
they said choice I am an optimist in this
921
01:06:15,690 --> 01:06:20,790
matter because pessimists jump out of the
window and are no longer concerned and I
922
01:06:20,790 --> 01:06:24,930
am an optimist because years ago during
that part of my career I came across
923
01:06:24,930 --> 01:06:28,930
something about you guys that made me feel
extremely optimistic about the future
924
01:06:28,930 --> 01:06:35,430
because if you sneeze we catch a cold I
was covering Apollo and the mandate from
925
01:06:35,430 --> 01:06:38,890
the BBC is tell the great British public
why the Americans keep doing the same
926
01:06:38,890 --> 01:06:43,290
thing go to the moon, bounce around,
come back go to the moon, bounce around,
927
01:06:43,310 --> 01:06:48,910
come back what they really meant was
what's different between one mission and
928
01:06:48,910 --> 01:06:52,330
another and please they said go and spend
as many months as you like in Houston and
929
01:06:52,330 --> 01:06:56,790
other Cape, find out well it was wonderful
it was the most exciting five years of my
930
01:06:56,790 --> 01:07:00,230
television career and I got to meet a lot
of wonderful people they were really
931
01:07:00,230 --> 01:07:04,910
special people those guys anyway I got
hate mail for one aspect of my work I
932
01:07:04,910 --> 01:07:08,950
think I did fairly well because I am here
but there was one thing I got hate mail
933
01:07:08,950 --> 01:07:11,810
from and all the mail said you know you
paid lots of money to stand on that
934
01:07:11,810 --> 01:07:14,650
television up there on the television
screen and explain this stuff to us what
935
01:07:14,650 --> 01:07:16,190
are they looking at?
936
01:07:16,990 --> 01:07:21,610
I didn't explain because I couldn't
explain on the lunar surface sometimes
937
01:07:21,610 --> 01:07:25,330
they referred to what is called a cuff
checklist and a cuff checklist was a kind
938
01:07:25,330 --> 01:07:28,570
of aid memoir now this is not because
astronauts are stupid because you know
939
01:07:28,570 --> 01:07:33,090
they are not it's because on the surface
of the moon you have that much oxygen and
940
01:07:33,090 --> 01:07:37,770
you have to do that much work you don't
have that much oxygen so you get the work
941
01:07:37,770 --> 01:07:42,770
right or you blow it so on special
occasions when really complex matters were
942
01:07:42,770 --> 01:07:46,330
concerned there would be a cuff checklist
that they could refer to now I never
943
01:07:46,330 --> 01:07:50,450
explained this because I couldn't I'll
just invent what it was suppose you are on
944
01:07:50,450 --> 01:07:53,650
the surface of the moon first time in
human history 240,000 miles from the
945
01:07:53,650 --> 01:07:58,830
nearest work bench you take a piece of
white hot technology some poor slob of a
946
01:07:58,830 --> 01:08:02,510
science engineer has spent his or her
adult life you lay it reverently in the
947
01:08:02,510 --> 01:08:08,650
lunar dust and you press its little button
and it doesn't work as Carl would have
948
01:08:08,650 --> 01:08:15,130
said billions of people are watching you
you have got to fix it now so you refer to
949
01:08:15,130 --> 01:08:18,250
your cuff checklist and these cuff
checklists never got explained by any of
950
01:08:18,250 --> 01:08:22,390
us I'll have to pretend it would say
something like if the LR cubed fails
951
01:08:22,390 --> 01:08:28,910
option 1 press the out mode squelch PCM to
2 and disengage XYZ if option 1 fails
952
01:08:28,910 --> 01:08:35,550
option 2 if option 2 fails option 3
squared and there would be something like
953
01:08:35,550 --> 01:08:39,950
half a dozen instructions designed to
stave off the possibility of a very
954
01:08:39,950 --> 01:08:44,070
embarrassing technological gaff on the
surface of another planet for the first
955
01:08:44,070 --> 01:08:50,310
time in human history right at the end of
each of these came a phrase that made me
956
01:08:50,310 --> 01:08:54,630
an instant optimist about you and your
relationship with your technology very
957
01:08:54,630 --> 01:08:59,050
healthy relationship because the phrase at
the end of each one of these little sheets
958
01:08:59,050 --> 01:09:03,630
of instructions could never have been
written by a British space agency or a
959
01:09:03,630 --> 01:09:07,530
French space agency or a Chinese space
agency or anybody else because at the end
960
01:09:07,530 --> 01:09:12,250
of each one of these things it said if all
technological repair options to this point
961
01:09:12,250 --> 01:09:15,050
have failed kick with lunar boot
962
01:09:27,070 --> 01:09:33,650
well we started a bit late and I over ran
I can't see you can we have the lights up
963
01:09:33,650 --> 01:09:39,430
I'm informed that we have a few minutes
for questions those of you who teach will
964
01:09:39,430 --> 01:09:44,850
recognise this technique you put up a hand
or you go to the microphone and I choose
965
01:09:44,850 --> 01:09:51,290
the people who look least dangerous
re-voice the question in my favour and
966
01:09:51,290 --> 01:09:57,290
duck it your teachers recognise that don't
you so I can't see anything is there any
967
01:09:57,290 --> 01:10:02,790
more light available out there she whizzes
Bonneville is up the road isn't it oh
968
01:10:02,790 --> 01:10:07,310
there you are now you can either put up a
hand and shout or you can find a
969
01:10:07,310 --> 01:10:11,050
microphone I can't tell you where they are
there's one up here there's one up where
970
01:10:11,050 --> 01:10:22,310
the voice of god oh hello okay you got
there first make it easy is terrorism one
971
01:10:22,310 --> 01:10:27,170
of these social upheavals that you think
are going to happen now is terrorism one
972
01:10:27,170 --> 01:10:30,610
of the social upheavals you mean part of
the transitional confusion I don't think
973
01:10:30,610 --> 01:10:35,410
it's been generated by advances in
technology kiddo I think it's been
974
01:10:35,410 --> 01:10:40,510
generated by something it went way before
any advances in technology so no I do not
975
01:10:40,510 --> 01:10:43,310
think it's part of the transitional
confusion generated by the use of
976
01:10:43,310 --> 01:10:48,850
technology no more than that I can't say
without ruffling feathers next question
977
01:10:48,850 --> 01:10:55,410
sir yes can you comment on any of the
current collaborative projects going on on
978
01:10:55,410 --> 01:11:01,390
the internet such as wikipedia which is a
encyclopedia project is done by the great
979
01:11:01,390 --> 01:11:07,350
masses attempting to build a encyclopedia
from scratch or other similar types of
980
01:11:07,350 --> 01:11:12,270
projects I think I saw that they put an ad
didn't they you want to build an
981
01:11:12,270 --> 01:11:17,630
encyclopedia come to with us and we'll do
it together yes yes it could be the
982
01:11:17,630 --> 01:11:24,050
greatest potential for obfuscation ever
since Noah Webster reinvented the english
983
01:11:24,050 --> 01:11:32,450
language ha ha H O N O U R we say you have
put your finger of course as you know very
984
01:11:32,450 --> 01:11:36,610
well and everyone else on the key problem
of the internet how do you know you can
985
01:11:36,610 --> 01:11:41,830
trust it I'm sure you do too I'm whizzing
along and I think I need a quick fact
986
01:11:41,830 --> 01:11:45,830
instead of going to the British library I
save some time by going in the net the
987
01:11:45,830 --> 01:11:51,310
stuff that I know is inaccurate is legion
legion I don't know how you deal with that
988
01:11:51,310 --> 01:11:54,770
well I do know but nobody's invented it
yet there's a lovely woman up at MIT
989
01:11:54,770 --> 01:12:01,310
called Patti Maas who is not only a genius
but also beautiful and she's working on
990
01:12:01,310 --> 01:12:07,070
these electronic agents and the kind of
thing she's talking about is being able to
991
01:12:07,070 --> 01:12:12,970
have an agent that can tell margarine from
butter do you say that here?
992
01:12:12,990 --> 01:12:18,890
no perhaps you don't in other words the
electronic agent can work fast enough to
993
01:12:18,890 --> 01:12:23,950
track down the sources of what's there and
say no this is crap and not bring it to
994
01:12:23,950 --> 01:12:28,950
you but short of that I think we're in for
a period of transitional confusion in
995
01:12:28,950 --> 01:12:34,350
spades yes but it happens all the time
look at the junk that was printed not long
996
01:12:34,350 --> 01:12:41,310
after Gutenberg we had to winnow our way
through that stuff I will manage filtering
997
01:12:41,310 --> 01:12:49,510
is part of the great oh gosh yes madam yes
that's you yes oh my god I can't it's a
998
01:12:49,510 --> 01:13:01,530
man sorry thanks a lot buddy I can't see
okay okay in some of your other works you
999
01:13:01,530 --> 01:13:06,790
made statements about some of your other
works you made statements about main
1000
01:13:06,790 --> 01:13:10,010
philosophers coming around and really
influencing people like corrupted
1001
01:13:10,010 --> 01:13:15,450
Darwinism and stuff but I want to know
what you think about the main distribution
1002
01:13:15,450 --> 01:13:19,990
of information shifting from governments
distributing information to corporations
1003
01:13:19,990 --> 01:13:24,990
distributing information to how you think
that's going to affect us I don't agree
1004
01:13:24,990 --> 01:13:27,550
with you that the main source of
information comes from either governments
1005
01:13:27,550 --> 01:13:32,610
or corporations the main source of
information comes from libraries I mean
1006
01:13:32,610 --> 01:13:38,490
that's a plain fact you mean propaganda or
selective elements of information but by
1007
01:13:38,490 --> 01:13:43,150
no means the main source of information I
mean the information in your Library of
1008
01:13:43,150 --> 01:13:49,670
Congress is a little bit larger than what
Mr Bush says sorry
1009
01:13:54,040 --> 01:13:59,300
or any other member of any government
anywhere on the planet it's just that he's
1010
01:13:59,300 --> 01:14:00,100
more amusing
1011
01:14:03,620 --> 01:14:11,740
so I can't really I don't know well I mean
I'm not sure I don't care actually I don't
1012
01:14:11,740 --> 01:14:19,000
think I think one of the aspects of the
internet and the general growing rising
1013
01:14:19,000 --> 01:14:22,480
standards of education in general is that
people are fooled a lot less than they
1014
01:14:22,480 --> 01:14:28,540
used to be even in my lifetime people are
a lot a lot less easily fooled people are
1015
01:14:28,540 --> 01:14:32,780
waking up to realizing that you know what
we've called transparent democracy for
1016
01:14:32,780 --> 01:14:37,760
five six hundred years has been anything
but and the sooner we recognize that the
1017
01:14:37,760 --> 01:14:43,180
better you know we now accept that in a
world of rail politic your government has
1018
01:14:43,180 --> 01:14:49,300
been assassinating people for a hundred
years so has ours it happens and one day
1019
01:14:49,300 --> 01:14:53,740
it won't but it's far better that we know
about it and then try to bring about a
1020
01:14:53,740 --> 01:14:59,460
world where it doesn't happen then believe
that so what I'm saying to you is I think
1021
01:14:59,460 --> 01:15:03,840
the end of the 19th century it mattered a
great deal what the government told you
1022
01:15:03,840 --> 01:15:08,240
but I think less and less so now but then
that's because I'm Pollyanna-ish I suppose
1023
01:15:08,240 --> 01:15:17,540
yes sir I'm only joking I can let you get
away with it I'm kidding I'm kidding I
1024
01:15:17,540 --> 01:15:22,200
guess my question was do you give a lot of
stock into the ideas like I guess what
1025
01:15:22,200 --> 01:15:27,400
Topper called future shock do you think
that people will ultimately be able to
1026
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:31,420
adjust to it because of what's occurred
historically or do you think that there's
1027
01:15:31,420 --> 01:15:36,320
some kind of limit that people will
eventually approach because of so much
1028
01:15:36,320 --> 01:15:40,260
information I guess will there ever be an
information overload in the effects of all
1029
01:15:40,260 --> 01:15:45,860
this psychologically on the individual and
society no ok
1030
01:15:49,180 --> 01:15:55,260
I don't think that we have come remotely
close to tapping what's between your ears
1031
01:15:55,260 --> 01:16:01,740
not remotely close and the matter of
information overload is simple ignore it I
1032
01:16:01,740 --> 01:16:06,900
mean ignore it I mean find ways to we've
filtered throughout our existence whether
1033
01:16:06,900 --> 01:16:10,820
it's whether it's what the shaman tells
you and you know you ignore all other
1034
01:16:10,820 --> 01:16:17,360
bones except these or feathers or whether
it's whether it's a librarian saying don't
1035
01:16:17,360 --> 01:16:20,640
waste your time on that muck over there if
you want the horse's mouth it's over here
1036
01:16:20,640 --> 01:16:25,060
I mean there are ways that we but I don't
think I wouldn't believe there's any
1037
01:16:25,060 --> 01:16:30,100
danger of the human being being overloaded
because you can ignore things I do all the
1038
01:16:30,100 --> 01:16:42,480
time sir oh wait excuse me sorry sorry the
gods I'll come back to you yes sir pardon
1039
01:16:42,480 --> 01:16:46,400
me if I've misunderstood but it seemed
like you were saying that with the spread
1040
01:16:46,400 --> 01:16:51,700
of knowledge through the internet that it
will increase diversity and it appears to
1041
01:16:51,700 --> 01:16:57,060
me that that if we all have access to the
same knowledge will eventually all become
1042
01:16:57,060 --> 01:17:01,540
more and more alike such that eventually
in the future hundred couple of hundred
1043
01:17:01,540 --> 01:17:07,440
years if we survive the current crisis
that the only the real difference we're
1044
01:17:07,440 --> 01:17:11,960
going to need to find is you know another
species from outer space or something yes
1045
01:17:11,960 --> 01:17:14,880
I understand that point of view and
forgive me saying so it's old fashioned
1046
01:17:15,940 --> 01:17:19,360
what I'm talking about when I talk about
diversity is the ability of each
1047
01:17:19,360 --> 01:17:23,520
individual to express themselves that's
never happened there are 6.1 billion
1048
01:17:23,520 --> 01:17:26,680
people out there if they all express
themselves it's going to be pretty
1049
01:17:26,680 --> 01:17:30,400
difficult to make them conform number one
number two
1050
01:17:33,420 --> 01:17:39,180
I forgot what I was going to say damn it
was a brilliant thought
1051
01:17:44,670 --> 01:17:48,970
I lived in Bologna I told you that I
thought Italy was like dying and going to
1052
01:17:48,970 --> 01:17:53,330
heaven I lived for a number of years in
Bologna back in the early 60s teaching and
1053
01:17:53,330 --> 01:17:59,410
Bologna you may not know this some of you
may do know it Bologna's language is a
1054
01:17:59,410 --> 01:18:02,210
form of dialect of Italian that is almost
incomprehensible to anybody who doesn't
1055
01:18:02,210 --> 01:18:06,090
live in Bologna I'll give you a tiny
example of it one phrase in Italian when
1056
01:18:06,090 --> 01:18:10,650
you say see you tomorrow you say ci
vediamo domani now I'll say that again and
1057
01:18:10,650 --> 01:18:17,610
then I'll repeat it in Bolognese ci
vediamo domani assabdankmang when
1058
01:18:17,610 --> 01:18:20,910
television came along in the early 60s the
people in Bologna were really upset they
1059
01:18:20,910 --> 01:18:26,870
said our culture will be destroyed we'll
be talking like bloody Romans well today
1060
01:18:26,870 --> 01:18:31,630
there is a there are two Bolognese dialect
television stations and the culture is
1061
01:18:31,630 --> 01:18:37,010
stronger than it ever was before so I
think what we're going to do is as I said
1062
01:18:37,010 --> 01:18:40,930
in the middle of my words that the
technology is going to empower that
1063
01:18:40,930 --> 01:18:45,590
diversity because it's going to make it
easier for it to express itself and the
1064
01:18:45,590 --> 01:18:50,210
only way that cultures die out which they
did when the Bible was not printed in
1065
01:18:50,210 --> 01:18:54,070
their language in the 16th century is
because there's an incredibly limited
1066
01:18:55,270 --> 01:19:04,350
amount of the ability to express yourself
thank you hi I'm from we are actually
1067
01:19:04,350 --> 01:19:08,630
teaching a course called cyber millenium
cyber what?
1068
01:19:08,870 --> 01:19:14,870
millenium yeah so what you have said it's
very very pertinent but I'm actually was
1069
01:19:14,870 --> 01:19:18,830
actually thinking about the same question
and let me repeat it a little bit on the
1070
01:19:18,830 --> 01:19:24,090
question of whether the information
technology will enhance cultural and
1071
01:19:24,090 --> 01:19:28,970
linguistic diversity and where I know I'm
very happy that you think that it will but
1072
01:19:28,970 --> 01:19:34,270
some of us are still having the nagging
suspicion because it's probably not so
1073
01:19:34,270 --> 01:19:38,430
much the idea of information technology
but there is another trickster involved
1074
01:19:38,430 --> 01:19:44,050
that's the capital the commodification of
cultures and languages and knowledge
1075
01:19:44,050 --> 01:19:49,110
systems that are again when you look into
it you'd rather go to the pharmaceutical
1076
01:19:49,110 --> 01:19:54,390
company or it will go to the cultural
entertainment industry so virtually I'm
1077
01:19:54,390 --> 01:19:58,150
talking more about the indigenous people
and peasants and all those people out
1078
01:19:58,150 --> 01:20:05,610
there that what would we how would they
really keep their processes of cultural
1079
01:20:05,610 --> 01:20:11,230
production I think I'm really troubled by
that fact because once it begins to become
1080
01:20:11,230 --> 01:20:16,670
modified then they might be seeing their
own dance actually through a video rather
1081
01:20:16,670 --> 01:20:21,270
than through their own ritual performance
of daily life you're not talking about the
1082
01:20:21,270 --> 01:20:26,230
internet I think you're talking about what
happens with normal human interaction one
1083
01:20:26,230 --> 01:20:30,630
group next to another have influences on
each other one individual has an influence
1084
01:20:30,630 --> 01:20:35,650
on the other I still don't think that
homogenizes us all far from it it may be
1085
01:20:35,650 --> 01:20:39,850
that the production of the interaction is
yet another addition to the cultural
1086
01:20:39,850 --> 01:20:44,610
diversity mix I would hope so and I'm
afraid on that note I'm beginning signal
1087
01:20:44,610 --> 01:20:48,030
to stop so thank you very much indeed for
coming and good night
1088
01:21:01,790 --> 01:21:09,330
well if you have no questions I'll sit
down oh damn yes sir easy question good
1089
01:21:09,330 --> 01:21:10,570
I'll duck it
1090
01:21:19,450 --> 01:21:23,510
what newspapers or magazines do I read to
get current input on current events well
1091
01:21:23,510 --> 01:21:29,110
of course the Times of London are rump
actually it's a question of what you can
1092
01:21:29,110 --> 01:21:34,290
get really I suppose yes in England I read
the Times because it's the best newspaper
1093
01:21:34,290 --> 01:21:40,470
in England but perhaps the world I would
read the New York Times if I could get it
1094
01:21:40,470 --> 01:21:46,710
but it isn't that easy in the sticks where
I live outside London magazines The
1095
01:21:46,710 --> 01:21:49,110
Economist because I'm basically a fascist
1096
01:21:52,270 --> 01:21:55,990
I used to read Scientific American but
since I stopped writing for it I don't
1097
01:21:55,990 --> 01:22:02,110
read it anymore actually the magazine was
bought by people somebody came up to me
1098
01:22:02,110 --> 01:22:07,030
tonight and said what happened to you and
Phil Morrison eminent physicist and
1099
01:22:07,030 --> 01:22:12,710
general good guy and because we wrote you
know he wrote the column before and after
1100
01:22:12,710 --> 01:22:17,810
mine sometimes before sometimes after and
they were bought by new people and
1101
01:22:17,810 --> 01:22:22,870
everyone was fired including us and now
the magazine looks different I'm biased I
1102
01:22:22,870 --> 01:22:27,930
think it's not very good thank you thank
you horrible so those are the magazines I
1103
01:22:27,930 --> 01:22:34,330
used to read what else history today is
pretty good if you like the recent stuff
1104
01:22:34,330 --> 01:22:38,850
it spends a lot of time on the Nazi period
but doesn't everyone these days it seems
1105
01:22:38,850 --> 01:22:43,370
to be the cheapest thing to teach children
because it has movies attached so those
1106
01:22:43,370 --> 01:22:47,230
are the magazines and things I read I tend
not to read magazines I tend to go and sit
1107
01:22:47,230 --> 01:22:53,370
in the British Library and read books
because it's nice and fun and they pay me
1108
01:22:53,370 --> 01:22:59,330
to do it you know somebody it's better
than real work no more questions thank you
1109
01:22:59,330 --> 01:23:03,930
oh damn yes sir is it correct to say that
one of your thesis is
1110
01:23:15,190 --> 01:23:23,610
is my thesis that everyone will finally
have access to everything ah if that is
1111
01:23:23,610 --> 01:23:29,990
the case here comes his question most
people I know don't
1112
01:23:34,670 --> 01:23:39,130
most people he says you don't mind if I
repeat this because people can't hear he's
1113
01:23:39,130 --> 01:23:41,890
saying that most people come home from
work too tired to go to the internet
1114
01:23:50,870 --> 01:23:55,790
it's much easier to turn on the tube you
mean the august body for which I do my
1115
01:23:55,790 --> 01:24:03,890
work I hope that is no longer true because
I think television is dead and doesn't
1116
01:24:03,890 --> 01:24:12,590
know it I think saving your presence sir
my god I apologize in general centralized
1117
01:24:12,590 --> 01:24:16,050
sources of information I think are dead
and don't know it it's just a matter of
1118
01:24:16,050 --> 01:24:20,210
time until they've gone we're there on the
vine I think the great thing about the
1119
01:24:20,210 --> 01:24:22,910
internet is that it will cause that to
happen and actually if you look at history
1120
01:24:22,910 --> 01:24:26,310
that's exactly what happens throughout
history there's a constant diffusion
1121
01:24:26,310 --> 01:24:30,950
outwards of information and sources of
information constant diffusion outwards of
1122
01:24:30,950 --> 01:24:40,890
means of what Tom Kuhn described as the
hacker winning through so that's my answer
1123
01:24:40,890 --> 01:24:49,570
to your question yes I can't answer
questions from you you're my hero I'm too
1124
01:24:49,570 --> 01:24:50,910
scared to speak
1125
01:24:55,460 --> 01:25:06,100
oh yes for frippery it's okay and that's
all it's okay for I think with limited
1126
01:25:06,100 --> 01:25:12,380
exception from time to time of PBS I think
most of it's gone down the tubes I think
1127
01:25:12,380 --> 01:25:17,080
if it has any sense I think it will
migrate across to the screen of my laptop
1128
01:25:18,320 --> 01:25:21,780
there are a couple of people I know in the
business who have moved out of television
1129
01:25:21,780 --> 01:25:27,600
and who got to know those funny software
people and who are writing programs that
1130
01:25:27,600 --> 01:25:31,880
will put a background against you that
will be indistinguishable from the real
1131
01:25:31,880 --> 01:25:37,820
thing only an engineer will know that you
did this not walking on a beach in Tahiti
1132
01:25:37,820 --> 01:25:43,580
but walking up and down your living room
in Portland, Oregon and only an engineer
1133
01:25:43,580 --> 01:25:46,260
will know because these things,
and that's going to be wonderful because
1134
01:25:46,260 --> 01:25:50,580
it's going to make it cheaper to make
exciting looking television programs and
1135
01:25:50,580 --> 01:25:55,320
you know, go around the world like I used
to for real, but never leave your living
1136
01:25:55,320 --> 01:25:59,500
room in Portland and what we'll see will
be the products of your fertile
1137
01:25:59,500 --> 01:26:05,100
imagination unconstrained by this filthy
business called Budgets there aren't any
1138
01:26:05,100 --> 01:26:06,760
more anywhere are there any more?
1139
01:26:07,200 --> 01:26:12,640
where I come from there aren't any more
yes ma'am
1140
01:26:20,720 --> 01:26:24,020
you'd like me to talk a bit more about
what I think education should be today
1141
01:26:24,740 --> 01:26:27,120
have you ever asked anybody that question
before?
1142
01:26:28,200 --> 01:26:30,460
and if you have, have they ever answered
it?
1143
01:26:31,880 --> 01:26:33,100
this is not fair
1144
01:26:36,320 --> 01:26:39,880
the only reason I went on and on about
reductionism as I did a bit tonight was
1145
01:26:39,880 --> 01:26:45,000
because while it's fine and dandy,
and while I would never let a dentist into
1146
01:26:45,000 --> 01:26:50,260
my mouth without a degree in dentistry or
I would never cross a bridge if it weren't
1147
01:26:50,260 --> 01:26:55,020
built by an engineer who knew how to build
bridges reductionism has its place and up
1148
01:26:55,020 --> 01:26:59,560
until now in history it has had a very
important place in providing us with the
1149
01:26:59,560 --> 01:27:02,680
goods and services that give us the
highest standard of living in the world
1150
01:27:02,680 --> 01:27:09,020
and in history but I think as I said
tonight I think education has to start
1151
01:27:09,020 --> 01:27:12,740
concerning itself with all these other
people out there we've lived a really
1152
01:27:12,740 --> 01:27:20,880
comfortable luxurious little life in the
west us first then you second and I think
1153
01:27:21,700 --> 01:27:26,360
recent events have shown that that causes
more problems than it solves I think we
1154
01:27:26,360 --> 01:27:30,360
have to urgently begin to try and get the
material out to the rest of the world and
1155
01:27:30,360 --> 01:27:36,580
I don't mean propaganda, I mean raw data
and let them make of it what they will and
1156
01:27:36,580 --> 01:27:40,620
I think the way in which we do that the
vehicle, the educative vehicle for doing
1157
01:27:40,620 --> 01:27:46,940
that cannot be the reductionist method
it's too slow it's too complex and it
1158
01:27:46,940 --> 01:27:52,000
functions for the kind of society in which
we live and not they we have to find ways
1159
01:27:52,000 --> 01:27:57,620
I think as I said in my talk tonight of
transmitting the data to them in different
1160
01:27:57,620 --> 01:28:02,420
forms that make it easier that make it not
easier in the sense that they are stupid
1161
01:28:02,420 --> 01:28:10,920
but that I mean if all of you go to Italy
I presume that most people in this country
1162
01:28:10,920 --> 01:28:16,740
do not in this room do not speak fluent
Italian if you go to Italy you will be
1163
01:28:16,740 --> 01:28:20,780
regarded as stupid because you don't speak
the language very well I mean I don't know
1164
01:28:20,780 --> 01:28:24,440
if you've come across people foreigners
who come here and say I would like very
1165
01:28:24,440 --> 01:28:31,360
much and you think this guy is really dumb
you know he has seven PhDs in quantum
1166
01:28:31,360 --> 01:28:35,480
physics but simply because he doesn't
speak your language means that he can't
1167
01:28:35,480 --> 01:28:40,800
explain himself well and you judge him so
I think the people out there are not
1168
01:28:40,800 --> 01:28:45,040
stupid we have to find ways of getting the
knowledge out to the rest of the world so
1169
01:28:45,040 --> 01:28:51,140
that oh boy I stick my foot in it here so
that they no longer live in the stone age
1170
01:28:52,120 --> 01:28:53,960
but in something slightly different
1171
01:29:12,710 --> 01:29:21,870
yes yes oh yes yes you're absolutely right
sir I was really only talking about the
1172
01:29:21,870 --> 01:29:26,510
fact that television doesn't have any
money anymore well hang on you've got to
1173
01:29:26,510 --> 01:29:29,490
deal with that first I mean either
television doesn't have any money anymore
1174
01:29:29,490 --> 01:29:32,450
and we can no longer make these
intellectually challenging programs
1175
01:29:32,450 --> 01:29:35,950
because we can't travel around the world
or we find alternate ways of making the
1176
01:29:35,950 --> 01:29:38,370
programs so that they look just as good as
they ever did and people have
1177
01:29:38,370 --> 01:29:43,870
intellectually challenging programming to
watch that's a specifically western issue
1178
01:29:43,870 --> 01:29:50,410
that I'm addressing the issue of what we
Brits and you Americans watch on your tube
1179
01:29:51,710 --> 01:29:55,750
as to whether or not people in the rest of
the world living in their unpleasant
1180
01:29:55,750 --> 01:29:58,690
circumstances in squatter camps or
whatever it is, dying of starvation and
1181
01:29:58,690 --> 01:30:01,730
having no electricity and no water and no
hygiene and nothing else whether they know
1182
01:30:01,730 --> 01:30:05,450
they're living in the stone age it's
neither here nor there, they are I mean in
1183
01:30:05,450 --> 01:30:13,470
our terms this is not politically correct
but if you can give people drugs that will
1184
01:30:13,470 --> 01:30:18,330
save them from dying why not do so if it
comes, happens to come from a I suppose
1185
01:30:18,330 --> 01:30:24,410
it's correct I suppose it's historically
correct to say that it just so happens
1186
01:30:24,410 --> 01:30:29,910
that gosh I don't even know if I want to
say this because it's going to sound wrong
1187
01:30:29,910 --> 01:30:32,830
it wouldn't sound wrong in England because
we're not religious
1188
01:30:36,290 --> 01:30:41,290
the consciousness of stewardship inherent
in Christianity that says the planet
1189
01:30:41,290 --> 01:30:46,930
belongs to you and you must do what you
can to make it better is what has driven
1190
01:30:46,930 --> 01:30:52,150
western what we call progress it seems to
me, that in the middle ages people were
1191
01:30:52,150 --> 01:30:56,310
told the planet belongs to you,
it is your stewardship, you're in charge
1192
01:30:56,310 --> 01:30:58,990
of it and you must make it better when you
die it should be a better place than when
1193
01:30:58,990 --> 01:31:04,350
you left so therefore go out and change it
so in a sense western the Judeo-Christian
1194
01:31:04,350 --> 01:31:11,330
ethic allows you to change the environment
for the better other entities in other
1195
01:31:11,330 --> 01:31:14,910
countries don't have this particular
dynamic view of the interaction between
1196
01:31:14,910 --> 01:31:20,610
the human being and the environment that's
not our fault it's an accident of history
1197
01:31:21,270 --> 01:31:23,330
but it does end up with me having
1198
01:31:28,470 --> 01:31:33,130
ampicillin when I have respiratory disease
which I can take and it stops me from
1199
01:31:33,130 --> 01:31:40,370
dying that's marginally better than the
other throwing the bones into the air to
1200
01:31:40,370 --> 01:31:47,170
see whether or not I'll live so I make no
apology for saying that accidentally we
1201
01:31:47,170 --> 01:31:52,270
have a society that is capable of doing
wonderful things to keep people alive and
1202
01:31:52,270 --> 01:32:01,430
make them better informed and in that
sense I use the word stone age I see
1203
01:32:01,430 --> 01:32:08,410
little value every understanding of the
universe has its own relative values I
1204
01:32:08,410 --> 01:32:12,770
can't say that anybody's view of God is
any better than mine since I have no view
1205
01:32:13,630 --> 01:32:18,770
so it sort of doesn't matter it's an
irrelevant discussion to me but that I can
1206
01:32:18,770 --> 01:32:23,490
keep a child alive or let it die is a
major difference between my society and
1207
01:32:23,490 --> 01:32:29,010
theirs I make no apology for thinking that
mine is better if I can keep that child
1208
01:32:29,010 --> 01:32:32,870
alive that's all I have to say about that
Sir
1209
01:32:59,090 --> 01:33:03,630
there are at least two things to be said
about this one, most linguists would agree
1210
01:33:03,630 --> 01:33:09,230
that English is an extremely efficient
tool it is the kind of I think synthetic
1211
01:33:09,230 --> 01:33:13,370
structure that is better than
non-synthetic structures which are most
1212
01:33:13,370 --> 01:33:17,670
other languages on the planet however the
other thing to be said about it is ask any
1213
01:33:17,670 --> 01:33:23,590
Frenchman if he agrees with you and he'll
say you're talking garbage as somebody
1214
01:33:23,590 --> 01:33:27,070
once said in a joke, if English was good
enough for Jesus Christ it's good enough
1215
01:33:27,070 --> 01:33:35,030
for us and as far as the French are
concerned God invented French so I think
1216
01:33:35,030 --> 01:33:37,950
your question in a sense in the nicest
possible sense of the word is irrelevant
1217
01:33:38,690 --> 01:33:43,850
there are certain structures I suppose
within what one describes as I suppose the
1218
01:33:43,850 --> 01:33:47,610
way the English language functions the way
the English language works, I'm not sure
1219
01:33:47,610 --> 01:33:51,430
that it's any better than anything else,
languages describe reality as we see it we
1220
01:33:51,430 --> 01:33:57,390
see it I suppose most of the 414,812 words
in the English language were there before
1221
01:33:57,390 --> 01:34:03,190
the scientific revolution no, 99.9
recurring of them were there before the
1222
01:34:03,190 --> 01:34:07,390
scientific revolution so that doesn't
really prove much that ours was better
1223
01:34:07,390 --> 01:34:10,350
than theirs or anybody else's sir
1224
01:34:16,080 --> 01:34:23,080
oh dear I'll stop after this because I
think I should would I comment on the
1225
01:34:23,080 --> 01:34:28,600
state of affairs after September the 11th
gee whiz this is very very difficult as a
1226
01:34:28,600 --> 01:34:35,720
foreigner Europeans don't see it the same
way you do and I'll ruffle feathers and
1227
01:34:35,720 --> 01:34:40,180
you've been so kind to look after me and
you've been such good hosts that I feel
1228
01:34:40,180 --> 01:34:48,900
like a churl saying these things yes the
rest of the world is has for many many
1229
01:34:48,900 --> 01:34:56,140
decades been appalled at your profligacy
not not just the prof your profligacy
1230
01:34:56,140 --> 01:35:01,460
doesn't cause people to be poor and die of
starvation and disease and malnutrition in
1231
01:35:01,460 --> 01:35:07,380
various parts of the world of course it
doesn't that doesn't stop them thinking it
1232
01:35:07,380 --> 01:35:11,200
does you know as long as I can remember I
never forget the first time I met
1233
01:35:11,200 --> 01:35:14,980
Americans when I was a young man at Oxford
and my first impression was that they
1234
01:35:14,980 --> 01:35:20,000
threw things away and you're going to
laugh at this but back in the early 60s we
1235
01:35:20,000 --> 01:35:25,120
didn't have you know when you pick up a
glass with a napkin, a paper napkin we
1236
01:35:25,120 --> 01:35:28,680
didn't have paper napkins, nobody had them
except you and I remember thinking good
1237
01:35:28,680 --> 01:35:32,680
grief you know we were given a drink at
somebody's house an American household in
1238
01:35:32,680 --> 01:35:36,760
England and we were given these glasses
with these paper things so we said what's
1239
01:35:36,760 --> 01:35:40,820
this for everybody was holding them
because you didn't want the condensation
1240
01:35:40,820 --> 01:35:45,620
to make your hand cold or wet and we
thought good god how effete how wonderful
1241
01:35:45,620 --> 01:35:52,760
you know and then people get another drink
and throw it away now I now know that this
1242
01:35:52,760 --> 01:35:56,100
is a silly thing to think but back then I
didn't, I thought this was extraordinary
1243
01:35:56,620 --> 01:36:01,700
multiply that a million times and you get
close to the kind of you in some squatter
1244
01:36:01,700 --> 01:36:07,020
camp in the middle east about you and your
culture and the luxury life you live and
1245
01:36:07,020 --> 01:36:13,400
the apparent lack of concern about the
rest of the world and sometimes it's not
1246
01:36:13,400 --> 01:36:18,360
just apparent I was in Lincolnville
Nebraska ten years ago and I met a very
1247
01:36:18,360 --> 01:36:22,120
nice woman the British film crew visiting,
the mayor gave a party it was really kind
1248
01:36:22,120 --> 01:36:24,780
of all the people in the town to give us a
party and a woman came up and said where
1249
01:36:24,780 --> 01:36:29,880
do you come from and I said London and she
said which state is that and I said it's
1250
01:36:29,880 --> 01:36:36,600
not a state, it's in England and she said
uh huh, which state is that and I think
1251
01:36:37,280 --> 01:36:42,880
that kind of is an absurd example of what
the rest of the world sees you're very
1252
01:36:42,880 --> 01:36:49,780
rich and you're very you don't have to
give a rat ass about the rest of us why
1253
01:36:49,780 --> 01:36:54,360
should you and in a way, if you closed
your borders and said get on with it you
1254
01:36:54,360 --> 01:37:00,120
people, we don't care we'd kind of
understand it because we're like that but
1255
01:37:00,120 --> 01:37:05,640
you are this incredible dichotomy,
you are very rich very powerful and you
1256
01:37:05,640 --> 01:37:10,940
make all these caring noises and we don't
know what to make of that because we
1257
01:37:10,940 --> 01:37:15,320
wouldn't I mean the British didn't do that
they enslaved everyone and made them wear
1258
01:37:15,320 --> 01:37:20,720
wigs in their courts as I said so you're a
very confusing bunch of people,
1259
01:37:20,840 --> 01:37:24,100
especially when you then say well we'll
solve this problem with tomahawks that
1260
01:37:24,100 --> 01:37:33,440
really really confuses us so I think that
so many people died on September the 11th,
1261
01:37:33,480 --> 01:37:37,780
I really hardly want to talk about it but
if I have to, I have to say that in
1262
01:37:37,780 --> 01:37:42,560
Britain we have IRA bombs every two or
three weeks and you know 5,000 people have
1263
01:37:42,560 --> 01:37:46,440
been killed in the last 30 years in my
country, and you learn to live with it and
1264
01:37:46,440 --> 01:37:50,900
that's the way life is and maybe what
happened was a wake up call in the sense
1265
01:37:50,900 --> 01:37:53,720
that for the first time you were
experiencing what the rest of the world
1266
01:37:53,720 --> 01:37:58,920
has been too poor and too vulnerable to
avoid and the rest of us have lived with
1267
01:37:58,920 --> 01:38:03,600
it it's a terrible thing to say and I
apologize for it but I believe it to be
1268
01:38:03,600 --> 01:38:10,880
true if it means that we all start to
think more about why these things occur
1269
01:38:10,880 --> 01:38:17,160
and go to the root causes which are almost
always corruption and poverty those things
1270
01:38:17,160 --> 01:38:21,240
can be cured very easily you can poison
the wells you can poison the wells out
1271
01:38:21,240 --> 01:38:27,540
there easily by giving them what they
haven't got which is food and electricity
1272
01:38:28,120 --> 01:38:33,380
and above all information I was saying on
that radio program a smoker in a few years
1273
01:38:33,380 --> 01:38:37,160
time cell phones will be so cheap you
could parachute them into the rest of the
1274
01:38:37,160 --> 01:38:43,140
world and that will do it the minute those
people I was in the eastern block before
1275
01:38:43,140 --> 01:38:47,500
the wall went down in eastern Germany the
first time people started to be able to
1276
01:38:47,500 --> 01:38:51,140
see western German television,
same language and the effect was
1277
01:38:51,140 --> 01:38:54,420
electrified and they never looked back
that's all
140937
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