Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated:
1
00:00:03,060 --> 00:00:04,650
Instructor: Welcome back.
2
00:00:04,650 --> 00:00:06,840
This video is going to be a practical example
3
00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:08,640
where we showcase and apply
4
00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:12,210
most of the knowledge gained in this section of the course.
5
00:00:12,210 --> 00:00:13,260
More precisely,
6
00:00:13,260 --> 00:00:16,020
we are going to use our newly acquired understanding
7
00:00:16,020 --> 00:00:17,370
of combinatorics
8
00:00:17,370 --> 00:00:19,710
to aid us in our quest of ordering something
9
00:00:19,710 --> 00:00:22,380
nobody has ordered before.
10
00:00:22,380 --> 00:00:24,540
So you and your friend, let's call her Amy,
11
00:00:24,540 --> 00:00:27,450
wanna get some Domino's Pizza for your night in.
12
00:00:27,450 --> 00:00:29,310
You open the Domino's app on your phone
13
00:00:29,310 --> 00:00:31,950
and see that the store which delivers to your home
14
00:00:31,950 --> 00:00:33,780
offers several deals.
15
00:00:33,780 --> 00:00:36,180
A One Person Combo Pack,
16
00:00:36,180 --> 00:00:37,230
a Family Deal,
17
00:00:37,230 --> 00:00:39,780
and Double Delight.
18
00:00:39,780 --> 00:00:41,910
The first one consists of a medium pizza,
19
00:00:41,910 --> 00:00:45,510
a small drink, and a dessert for 15.99.
20
00:00:45,510 --> 00:00:48,450
The Family Deal includes two medium-sized pizzas,
21
00:00:48,450 --> 00:00:53,450
a small drink, a large drink, and two desserts for 25.99.
22
00:00:53,670 --> 00:00:57,450
Lastly, Double Delight also includes two pizzas,
23
00:00:57,450 --> 00:00:58,800
two drinks, and two desserts,
24
00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,260
and costs 27.99.
25
00:01:01,260 --> 00:01:04,712
The only difference being the two drinks are both large.
26
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,340
Before picking a specific deal,
27
00:01:08,340 --> 00:01:11,130
you pull up the menu to explore the options.
28
00:01:11,130 --> 00:01:14,490
You see they offer a variety of 26 different pizzas,
29
00:01:14,490 --> 00:01:16,050
4 distinct drinks,
30
00:01:16,050 --> 00:01:18,063
as well as 7 types of desserts.
31
00:01:18,900 --> 00:01:21,570
Initially, Amy says she isn't that hungry.
32
00:01:21,570 --> 00:01:24,093
So you look at the One Person Combo Pack.
33
00:01:25,260 --> 00:01:27,180
Now, to construct such a menu,
34
00:01:27,180 --> 00:01:29,340
you need to combine three elements,
35
00:01:29,340 --> 00:01:30,360
a pizza,
36
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:31,590
a small drink,
37
00:01:31,590 --> 00:01:32,793
and a dessert.
38
00:01:33,660 --> 00:01:36,420
Since all of these have distinct sample spaces,
39
00:01:36,420 --> 00:01:39,903
we consider every part of the menu as a separate position.
40
00:01:40,770 --> 00:01:42,990
Domino's offers 26 pizzas,
41
00:01:42,990 --> 00:01:44,910
so there are 26 different ways
42
00:01:44,910 --> 00:01:47,670
we can choose our single pizza.
43
00:01:47,670 --> 00:01:49,560
Similarly, we have four ways
44
00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,210
of picking our preferred beverage
45
00:01:51,210 --> 00:01:53,223
and seven ways to pick our dessert.
46
00:01:55,020 --> 00:01:56,490
This scenario is identical
47
00:01:56,490 --> 00:01:59,670
to the diner example we explored a few lectures ago
48
00:01:59,670 --> 00:02:01,410
where we had to construct a lunch menu
49
00:02:01,410 --> 00:02:04,770
out of a sandwich, a side, and a drink.
50
00:02:04,770 --> 00:02:06,420
Therefore, we know how to find
51
00:02:06,420 --> 00:02:09,210
the total number of different combinations.
52
00:02:09,210 --> 00:02:12,540
We simply multiply the size of the sample space
53
00:02:12,540 --> 00:02:13,683
for each position.
54
00:02:14,550 --> 00:02:19,350
This would result in 26 times 4 times 7,
55
00:02:19,350 --> 00:02:22,620
or a total of 728 possible ways
56
00:02:22,620 --> 00:02:23,943
to fill out this deal.
57
00:02:24,990 --> 00:02:27,210
Now, we use multiplication here
58
00:02:27,210 --> 00:02:30,870
because regardless of which of the 26 pizzas we get,
59
00:02:30,870 --> 00:02:33,723
we can accompany it with any of the four beverages.
60
00:02:34,590 --> 00:02:36,000
Following the same logic,
61
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,130
for any of those pizza and drink combos,
62
00:02:38,130 --> 00:02:40,533
we have seven different dessert options.
63
00:02:41,790 --> 00:02:43,500
Fascinated by the huge variety,
64
00:02:43,500 --> 00:02:47,040
your friend reconsiders and decides to get some food, too,
65
00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:48,360
not because she's hungry,
66
00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,820
because she wants to play the combinations game
67
00:02:50,820 --> 00:02:53,340
and increase that number of options you have.
68
00:02:53,340 --> 00:02:56,490
Thus, you're compelled to get one of the two larger deals,
69
00:02:56,490 --> 00:02:59,403
the Family Deal or the Double Delight.
70
00:03:01,170 --> 00:03:03,600
Amy states that since you're getting two pizzas now,
71
00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,930
you can get different ones and exchange slices.
72
00:03:06,930 --> 00:03:08,647
Furthermore, she proclaims that
73
00:03:08,647 --> 00:03:10,417
"Since we're ordering two of each
74
00:03:10,417 --> 00:03:12,097
"of the three parts of the meal,
75
00:03:12,097 --> 00:03:14,757
"we now have 8 times as many options."
76
00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:17,940
Having recently mastered combinatorics,
77
00:03:17,940 --> 00:03:20,970
you decide to test if her statement holds true.
78
00:03:20,970 --> 00:03:21,840
To do so,
79
00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,720
you must compute the number of different menus you can order
80
00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,673
for each of the other two deals.
81
00:03:28,050 --> 00:03:30,900
You examine the Family Deal they offer first.
82
00:03:30,900 --> 00:03:33,210
Recall that it includes two pizzas,
83
00:03:33,210 --> 00:03:34,200
a small drink,
84
00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:35,250
a large drink,
85
00:03:35,250 --> 00:03:36,210
and two desserts
86
00:03:36,210 --> 00:03:39,210
for the price of 25.99.
87
00:03:39,210 --> 00:03:41,520
Once again, you decided to get different pizzas
88
00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,200
to get the most out of your deal.
89
00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,870
Since the drinks vary in size and desserts are small,
90
00:03:45,870 --> 00:03:47,640
you decide to make no such commitments
91
00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:49,263
about the other two ingredients.
92
00:03:50,490 --> 00:03:51,323
All right.
93
00:03:51,323 --> 00:03:53,700
Let's first look at the pizzas you can choose.
94
00:03:53,700 --> 00:03:55,650
Since you are splitting the two among one another,
95
00:03:55,650 --> 00:03:58,140
no order is involved in this decision.
96
00:03:58,140 --> 00:04:01,350
Thus, you would need to use combinations without repetition
97
00:04:01,350 --> 00:04:03,390
to determine the correct amount of pizza options
98
00:04:03,390 --> 00:04:04,623
this deal provides.
99
00:04:05,490 --> 00:04:07,950
You apply the formulas you learned already,
100
00:04:07,950 --> 00:04:12,480
which results in 26 factorial over 24 factorial
101
00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:14,253
times 2 factorial.
102
00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:20,149
This simplifies to 25 times 26 over 1 times 2,
103
00:04:20,459 --> 00:04:21,873
or 325.
104
00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,100
Your conclusion is that there are 325 different ways
105
00:04:26,100 --> 00:04:28,140
of picking the pizzas.
106
00:04:28,140 --> 00:04:30,900
Whoa, that is a much greater variety
107
00:04:30,900 --> 00:04:33,273
than the 26 we had available earlier.
108
00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,240
Now, for the drinks.
109
00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:37,950
You can both order the same one.
110
00:04:37,950 --> 00:04:39,423
So repetition is allowed.
111
00:04:40,350 --> 00:04:43,290
Furthermore, since it matters which drink is larger,
112
00:04:43,290 --> 00:04:46,350
this situation requires using variations.
113
00:04:46,350 --> 00:04:47,910
Therefore, we apply the formula
114
00:04:47,910 --> 00:04:50,070
for variations with repetition
115
00:04:50,070 --> 00:04:53,760
for picking two out of the four available options.
116
00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,410
By plugging values into the formula,
117
00:04:55,410 --> 00:04:58,170
we see that we have 4 to the power of 2,
118
00:04:58,170 --> 00:05:00,483
or 16 options for the drinks.
119
00:05:01,860 --> 00:05:03,720
Alternatively, you can think of these
120
00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:05,700
in terms of combinations of two events
121
00:05:05,700 --> 00:05:07,860
with separate sample spaces.
122
00:05:07,860 --> 00:05:10,080
By doing so, we get two events,
123
00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,993
both of which have sample spaces of size 4.
124
00:05:13,830 --> 00:05:15,060
As we can expect,
125
00:05:15,060 --> 00:05:16,740
the answer would remain the same
126
00:05:16,740 --> 00:05:20,073
since 4 times 4 also equals 16.
127
00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,490
We once again have much more variety
128
00:05:23,490 --> 00:05:24,903
compared to the first deal.
129
00:05:26,490 --> 00:05:29,010
Lastly, you reach the desserts.
130
00:05:29,010 --> 00:05:30,330
Just like with the drinks,
131
00:05:30,330 --> 00:05:32,520
you did not agree to get different ones,
132
00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,950
so you can both get ice cream.
133
00:05:34,950 --> 00:05:36,690
If you end up ordering different ones,
134
00:05:36,690 --> 00:05:39,513
it matters to you who gets each one.
135
00:05:40,710 --> 00:05:43,860
For instance, if Amy wants the choco pizza
136
00:05:43,860 --> 00:05:45,690
and you want the brownie bites,
137
00:05:45,690 --> 00:05:47,910
it's crucial who gets each one.
138
00:05:47,910 --> 00:05:49,320
Therefore, we must use
139
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,623
variations with repetition here as well, right?
140
00:05:53,700 --> 00:05:55,290
Well, not really.
141
00:05:55,290 --> 00:05:57,000
Domino's doesn't need to know
142
00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,740
who the two desserts are for.
143
00:05:58,740 --> 00:06:00,000
They just put them in the bag
144
00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,790
and let you distribute them among yourselves.
145
00:06:02,790 --> 00:06:03,840
In such a case,
146
00:06:03,840 --> 00:06:07,200
you would order the choco pizza and the brownie bites
147
00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,900
regardless of who prefers each dessert.
148
00:06:09,900 --> 00:06:13,530
Therefore, we are dealing with combinations with repetition,
149
00:06:13,530 --> 00:06:16,623
instead of variations with repetition.
150
00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,130
Recall the formulas from the bonus lecture
151
00:06:20,130 --> 00:06:22,710
on combinations with repetition.
152
00:06:22,710 --> 00:06:24,690
The number of different ways we can use
153
00:06:24,690 --> 00:06:26,880
p elements out of n
154
00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,700
with possibly recurring values equals
155
00:06:29,700 --> 00:06:33,810
n plus p minus 1 factorial
156
00:06:33,810 --> 00:06:38,253
over p factorial times n minus 1 factorial.
157
00:06:39,330 --> 00:06:42,600
Since we are picking two desserts out of a possible seven,
158
00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:47,340
we can plug in these values to get 7 plus 2 minus 1,
159
00:06:47,340 --> 00:06:49,290
or 8 factorial,
160
00:06:49,290 --> 00:06:53,550
over 2 factorial times 6 factorial.
161
00:06:53,550 --> 00:06:54,900
After some simplifications,
162
00:06:54,900 --> 00:06:59,070
this equals 7 times 8 over 1 times 2,
163
00:06:59,070 --> 00:07:01,530
or 28.
164
00:07:01,530 --> 00:07:04,050
Therefore, there are 28 different ways
165
00:07:04,050 --> 00:07:06,483
to pick our two desserts out of the menu.
166
00:07:08,670 --> 00:07:12,450
Right, so far, we have found out that we have 325 ways
167
00:07:12,450 --> 00:07:13,710
of choosing our pizzas,
168
00:07:13,710 --> 00:07:15,390
16 options for our drinks,
169
00:07:15,390 --> 00:07:18,213
and 28 combinations of desserts we can order.
170
00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,120
Therefore, we need to multiply these
171
00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:25,680
to get a total of 325 times 16 times 28,
172
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:30,680
or 145,600 different options for this deal.
173
00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,750
Whoa, that is a lot of variety!
174
00:07:33,750 --> 00:07:36,210
That is definitely more than 8 times greater
175
00:07:36,210 --> 00:07:39,870
than 728 options you could get with the first deal.
176
00:07:39,870 --> 00:07:42,933
So Amy was wrong after all.
177
00:07:43,770 --> 00:07:45,030
Before you place your order,
178
00:07:45,030 --> 00:07:46,800
you still go through the third deal
179
00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:48,330
to make sure you're choosing the offer
180
00:07:48,330 --> 00:07:50,520
with the greatest variety.
181
00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:52,140
The Double Delight contains
182
00:07:52,140 --> 00:07:54,510
the same number of pizzas and desserts
183
00:07:54,510 --> 00:07:56,250
as the Family Deal.
184
00:07:56,250 --> 00:07:59,340
Therefore, you already know you have 325 ways
185
00:07:59,340 --> 00:08:00,630
of choosing the pizzas
186
00:08:00,630 --> 00:08:03,243
and another 28 ways of picking the desserts.
187
00:08:04,110 --> 00:08:06,060
Thus, you only have to estimate
188
00:08:06,060 --> 00:08:08,280
the number of ways to pick the beverages
189
00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:09,513
that go with your order.
190
00:08:10,830 --> 00:08:12,060
The drinks are large,
191
00:08:12,060 --> 00:08:13,770
so just like with the pizzas,
192
00:08:13,770 --> 00:08:15,450
you decide to get different ones,
193
00:08:15,450 --> 00:08:17,490
since you can share.
194
00:08:17,490 --> 00:08:19,320
Coca-Cola is still running the campaign
195
00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,900
where they put names on the labels of each bottle,
196
00:08:21,900 --> 00:08:24,660
so it matters who gets each drink.
197
00:08:24,660 --> 00:08:26,610
For instance, if you want a Coke
198
00:08:26,610 --> 00:08:28,320
and your sister wants a Sprite,
199
00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:29,970
you would not want the Coca-Cola label
200
00:08:29,970 --> 00:08:32,730
to have her name instead of yours.
201
00:08:32,730 --> 00:08:34,140
Therefore, it's important
202
00:08:34,140 --> 00:08:36,000
how you order the two beverages
203
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,852
and the special directions you leave for the delivery.
204
00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,100
This suggests you must use variations without repetition
205
00:08:44,100 --> 00:08:46,773
to determine the appropriate number of possibilities.
206
00:08:48,660 --> 00:08:50,880
According to the formula we introduced earlier,
207
00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,190
the number of ways of choosing your beverages
208
00:08:53,190 --> 00:08:57,450
would equal 4 factorial over 2 factorial.
209
00:08:57,450 --> 00:08:59,550
This results in you having 12 different ways
210
00:08:59,550 --> 00:09:00,700
of getting your drinks.
211
00:09:01,770 --> 00:09:05,010
Since there are 325 ways of picking the pizzas,
212
00:09:05,010 --> 00:09:06,480
12 ways of choosing the drinks,
213
00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,090
and 28 ways of selecting the desserts,
214
00:09:09,090 --> 00:09:12,450
that makes up a total of 109,200
215
00:09:12,450 --> 00:09:15,840
distinct, possible orders you can make.
216
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:17,760
Just like with the Family deal offer,
217
00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:19,740
the number of possible menus you can get
218
00:09:19,740 --> 00:09:21,750
is more than 8 times greater
219
00:09:21,750 --> 00:09:25,473
than the 728 available for the One Person Combo Pack.
220
00:09:26,610 --> 00:09:28,380
Thus, you showed your friend
221
00:09:28,380 --> 00:09:30,090
that ordering twice as much food
222
00:09:30,090 --> 00:09:32,340
results in having much greater variety
223
00:09:32,340 --> 00:09:33,890
than she had initially thought.
224
00:09:35,730 --> 00:09:39,850
Because 109,200 is less than 145,600,
225
00:09:41,430 --> 00:09:43,740
you decide to go with the Family Deal
226
00:09:43,740 --> 00:09:45,870
instead of the Double Delight
227
00:09:45,870 --> 00:09:48,020
because of the greater variety it provides.
228
00:09:48,990 --> 00:09:51,300
Even though the only difference between the two deals
229
00:09:51,300 --> 00:09:53,190
is the size of one drink,
230
00:09:53,190 --> 00:09:57,753
it results in us having 36,400 more options.
231
00:09:58,620 --> 00:10:00,900
This is a perfect example
232
00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:02,400
of how small changes
233
00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:06,750
can severely expand the possible number of outcomes we have.
234
00:10:06,750 --> 00:10:08,160
This only goes to show
235
00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,260
that when using combinatorics,
236
00:10:10,260 --> 00:10:11,970
the devil is in the details,
237
00:10:11,970 --> 00:10:14,223
because every small difference matters.
238
00:10:16,110 --> 00:10:17,880
Great job, everybody!
239
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:19,590
In this long, practical example,
240
00:10:19,590 --> 00:10:21,900
we manage to go over the various different parts
241
00:10:21,900 --> 00:10:23,220
of combinatorics,
242
00:10:23,220 --> 00:10:25,200
and when we use each one.
243
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,290
We put all the formulas from the section to good use
244
00:10:28,290 --> 00:10:30,570
and made sure we provide logical arguments
245
00:10:30,570 --> 00:10:33,210
before deciding which one to apply.
246
00:10:33,210 --> 00:10:34,920
The goal of this practical example
247
00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,430
was to show you how to apply a probabilistic approach
248
00:10:38,430 --> 00:10:40,110
to everyday scenarios
249
00:10:40,110 --> 00:10:42,930
and get into an analytical mindset.
250
00:10:42,930 --> 00:10:45,630
That was also the end of this section.
251
00:10:45,630 --> 00:10:48,150
Next time, we are going to explore a completely new topic
252
00:10:48,150 --> 00:10:51,210
called Bayesian Inference.
253
00:10:51,210 --> 00:10:52,323
Thanks for watching.
18956
Can't find what you're looking for?
Get subtitles in any language from opensubtitles.com, and translate them here.