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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:03,060 --> 00:00:04,650 Instructor: Welcome back. 2 00:00:04,650 --> 00:00:06,840 This video is going to be a practical example 3 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:08,640 where we showcase and apply 4 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:12,210 most of the knowledge gained in this section of the course. 5 00:00:12,210 --> 00:00:13,260 More precisely, 6 00:00:13,260 --> 00:00:16,020 we are going to use our newly acquired understanding 7 00:00:16,020 --> 00:00:17,370 of combinatorics 8 00:00:17,370 --> 00:00:19,710 to aid us in our quest of ordering something 9 00:00:19,710 --> 00:00:22,380 nobody has ordered before. 10 00:00:22,380 --> 00:00:24,540 So you and your friend, let's call her Amy, 11 00:00:24,540 --> 00:00:27,450 wanna get some Domino's Pizza for your night in. 12 00:00:27,450 --> 00:00:29,310 You open the Domino's app on your phone 13 00:00:29,310 --> 00:00:31,950 and see that the store which delivers to your home 14 00:00:31,950 --> 00:00:33,780 offers several deals. 15 00:00:33,780 --> 00:00:36,180 A One Person Combo Pack, 16 00:00:36,180 --> 00:00:37,230 a Family Deal, 17 00:00:37,230 --> 00:00:39,780 and Double Delight. 18 00:00:39,780 --> 00:00:41,910 The first one consists of a medium pizza, 19 00:00:41,910 --> 00:00:45,510 a small drink, and a dessert for 15.99. 20 00:00:45,510 --> 00:00:48,450 The Family Deal includes two medium-sized pizzas, 21 00:00:48,450 --> 00:00:53,450 a small drink, a large drink, and two desserts for 25.99. 22 00:00:53,670 --> 00:00:57,450 Lastly, Double Delight also includes two pizzas, 23 00:00:57,450 --> 00:00:58,800 two drinks, and two desserts, 24 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,260 and costs 27.99. 25 00:01:01,260 --> 00:01:04,712 The only difference being the two drinks are both large. 26 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,340 Before picking a specific deal, 27 00:01:08,340 --> 00:01:11,130 you pull up the menu to explore the options. 28 00:01:11,130 --> 00:01:14,490 You see they offer a variety of 26 different pizzas, 29 00:01:14,490 --> 00:01:16,050 4 distinct drinks, 30 00:01:16,050 --> 00:01:18,063 as well as 7 types of desserts. 31 00:01:18,900 --> 00:01:21,570 Initially, Amy says she isn't that hungry. 32 00:01:21,570 --> 00:01:24,093 So you look at the One Person Combo Pack. 33 00:01:25,260 --> 00:01:27,180 Now, to construct such a menu, 34 00:01:27,180 --> 00:01:29,340 you need to combine three elements, 35 00:01:29,340 --> 00:01:30,360 a pizza, 36 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:31,590 a small drink, 37 00:01:31,590 --> 00:01:32,793 and a dessert. 38 00:01:33,660 --> 00:01:36,420 Since all of these have distinct sample spaces, 39 00:01:36,420 --> 00:01:39,903 we consider every part of the menu as a separate position. 40 00:01:40,770 --> 00:01:42,990 Domino's offers 26 pizzas, 41 00:01:42,990 --> 00:01:44,910 so there are 26 different ways 42 00:01:44,910 --> 00:01:47,670 we can choose our single pizza. 43 00:01:47,670 --> 00:01:49,560 Similarly, we have four ways 44 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,210 of picking our preferred beverage 45 00:01:51,210 --> 00:01:53,223 and seven ways to pick our dessert. 46 00:01:55,020 --> 00:01:56,490 This scenario is identical 47 00:01:56,490 --> 00:01:59,670 to the diner example we explored a few lectures ago 48 00:01:59,670 --> 00:02:01,410 where we had to construct a lunch menu 49 00:02:01,410 --> 00:02:04,770 out of a sandwich, a side, and a drink. 50 00:02:04,770 --> 00:02:06,420 Therefore, we know how to find 51 00:02:06,420 --> 00:02:09,210 the total number of different combinations. 52 00:02:09,210 --> 00:02:12,540 We simply multiply the size of the sample space 53 00:02:12,540 --> 00:02:13,683 for each position. 54 00:02:14,550 --> 00:02:19,350 This would result in 26 times 4 times 7, 55 00:02:19,350 --> 00:02:22,620 or a total of 728 possible ways 56 00:02:22,620 --> 00:02:23,943 to fill out this deal. 57 00:02:24,990 --> 00:02:27,210 Now, we use multiplication here 58 00:02:27,210 --> 00:02:30,870 because regardless of which of the 26 pizzas we get, 59 00:02:30,870 --> 00:02:33,723 we can accompany it with any of the four beverages. 60 00:02:34,590 --> 00:02:36,000 Following the same logic, 61 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,130 for any of those pizza and drink combos, 62 00:02:38,130 --> 00:02:40,533 we have seven different dessert options. 63 00:02:41,790 --> 00:02:43,500 Fascinated by the huge variety, 64 00:02:43,500 --> 00:02:47,040 your friend reconsiders and decides to get some food, too, 65 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:48,360 not because she's hungry, 66 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,820 because she wants to play the combinations game 67 00:02:50,820 --> 00:02:53,340 and increase that number of options you have. 68 00:02:53,340 --> 00:02:56,490 Thus, you're compelled to get one of the two larger deals, 69 00:02:56,490 --> 00:02:59,403 the Family Deal or the Double Delight. 70 00:03:01,170 --> 00:03:03,600 Amy states that since you're getting two pizzas now, 71 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,930 you can get different ones and exchange slices. 72 00:03:06,930 --> 00:03:08,647 Furthermore, she proclaims that 73 00:03:08,647 --> 00:03:10,417 "Since we're ordering two of each 74 00:03:10,417 --> 00:03:12,097 "of the three parts of the meal, 75 00:03:12,097 --> 00:03:14,757 "we now have 8 times as many options." 76 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:17,940 Having recently mastered combinatorics, 77 00:03:17,940 --> 00:03:20,970 you decide to test if her statement holds true. 78 00:03:20,970 --> 00:03:21,840 To do so, 79 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,720 you must compute the number of different menus you can order 80 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,673 for each of the other two deals. 81 00:03:28,050 --> 00:03:30,900 You examine the Family Deal they offer first. 82 00:03:30,900 --> 00:03:33,210 Recall that it includes two pizzas, 83 00:03:33,210 --> 00:03:34,200 a small drink, 84 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:35,250 a large drink, 85 00:03:35,250 --> 00:03:36,210 and two desserts 86 00:03:36,210 --> 00:03:39,210 for the price of 25.99. 87 00:03:39,210 --> 00:03:41,520 Once again, you decided to get different pizzas 88 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,200 to get the most out of your deal. 89 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,870 Since the drinks vary in size and desserts are small, 90 00:03:45,870 --> 00:03:47,640 you decide to make no such commitments 91 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:49,263 about the other two ingredients. 92 00:03:50,490 --> 00:03:51,323 All right. 93 00:03:51,323 --> 00:03:53,700 Let's first look at the pizzas you can choose. 94 00:03:53,700 --> 00:03:55,650 Since you are splitting the two among one another, 95 00:03:55,650 --> 00:03:58,140 no order is involved in this decision. 96 00:03:58,140 --> 00:04:01,350 Thus, you would need to use combinations without repetition 97 00:04:01,350 --> 00:04:03,390 to determine the correct amount of pizza options 98 00:04:03,390 --> 00:04:04,623 this deal provides. 99 00:04:05,490 --> 00:04:07,950 You apply the formulas you learned already, 100 00:04:07,950 --> 00:04:12,480 which results in 26 factorial over 24 factorial 101 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:14,253 times 2 factorial. 102 00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:20,149 This simplifies to 25 times 26 over 1 times 2, 103 00:04:20,459 --> 00:04:21,873 or 325. 104 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,100 Your conclusion is that there are 325 different ways 105 00:04:26,100 --> 00:04:28,140 of picking the pizzas. 106 00:04:28,140 --> 00:04:30,900 Whoa, that is a much greater variety 107 00:04:30,900 --> 00:04:33,273 than the 26 we had available earlier. 108 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,240 Now, for the drinks. 109 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:37,950 You can both order the same one. 110 00:04:37,950 --> 00:04:39,423 So repetition is allowed. 111 00:04:40,350 --> 00:04:43,290 Furthermore, since it matters which drink is larger, 112 00:04:43,290 --> 00:04:46,350 this situation requires using variations. 113 00:04:46,350 --> 00:04:47,910 Therefore, we apply the formula 114 00:04:47,910 --> 00:04:50,070 for variations with repetition 115 00:04:50,070 --> 00:04:53,760 for picking two out of the four available options. 116 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:55,410 By plugging values into the formula, 117 00:04:55,410 --> 00:04:58,170 we see that we have 4 to the power of 2, 118 00:04:58,170 --> 00:05:00,483 or 16 options for the drinks. 119 00:05:01,860 --> 00:05:03,720 Alternatively, you can think of these 120 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:05,700 in terms of combinations of two events 121 00:05:05,700 --> 00:05:07,860 with separate sample spaces. 122 00:05:07,860 --> 00:05:10,080 By doing so, we get two events, 123 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,993 both of which have sample spaces of size 4. 124 00:05:13,830 --> 00:05:15,060 As we can expect, 125 00:05:15,060 --> 00:05:16,740 the answer would remain the same 126 00:05:16,740 --> 00:05:20,073 since 4 times 4 also equals 16. 127 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,490 We once again have much more variety 128 00:05:23,490 --> 00:05:24,903 compared to the first deal. 129 00:05:26,490 --> 00:05:29,010 Lastly, you reach the desserts. 130 00:05:29,010 --> 00:05:30,330 Just like with the drinks, 131 00:05:30,330 --> 00:05:32,520 you did not agree to get different ones, 132 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,950 so you can both get ice cream. 133 00:05:34,950 --> 00:05:36,690 If you end up ordering different ones, 134 00:05:36,690 --> 00:05:39,513 it matters to you who gets each one. 135 00:05:40,710 --> 00:05:43,860 For instance, if Amy wants the choco pizza 136 00:05:43,860 --> 00:05:45,690 and you want the brownie bites, 137 00:05:45,690 --> 00:05:47,910 it's crucial who gets each one. 138 00:05:47,910 --> 00:05:49,320 Therefore, we must use 139 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,623 variations with repetition here as well, right? 140 00:05:53,700 --> 00:05:55,290 Well, not really. 141 00:05:55,290 --> 00:05:57,000 Domino's doesn't need to know 142 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,740 who the two desserts are for. 143 00:05:58,740 --> 00:06:00,000 They just put them in the bag 144 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,790 and let you distribute them among yourselves. 145 00:06:02,790 --> 00:06:03,840 In such a case, 146 00:06:03,840 --> 00:06:07,200 you would order the choco pizza and the brownie bites 147 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,900 regardless of who prefers each dessert. 148 00:06:09,900 --> 00:06:13,530 Therefore, we are dealing with combinations with repetition, 149 00:06:13,530 --> 00:06:16,623 instead of variations with repetition. 150 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,130 Recall the formulas from the bonus lecture 151 00:06:20,130 --> 00:06:22,710 on combinations with repetition. 152 00:06:22,710 --> 00:06:24,690 The number of different ways we can use 153 00:06:24,690 --> 00:06:26,880 p elements out of n 154 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,700 with possibly recurring values equals 155 00:06:29,700 --> 00:06:33,810 n plus p minus 1 factorial 156 00:06:33,810 --> 00:06:38,253 over p factorial times n minus 1 factorial. 157 00:06:39,330 --> 00:06:42,600 Since we are picking two desserts out of a possible seven, 158 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:47,340 we can plug in these values to get 7 plus 2 minus 1, 159 00:06:47,340 --> 00:06:49,290 or 8 factorial, 160 00:06:49,290 --> 00:06:53,550 over 2 factorial times 6 factorial. 161 00:06:53,550 --> 00:06:54,900 After some simplifications, 162 00:06:54,900 --> 00:06:59,070 this equals 7 times 8 over 1 times 2, 163 00:06:59,070 --> 00:07:01,530 or 28. 164 00:07:01,530 --> 00:07:04,050 Therefore, there are 28 different ways 165 00:07:04,050 --> 00:07:06,483 to pick our two desserts out of the menu. 166 00:07:08,670 --> 00:07:12,450 Right, so far, we have found out that we have 325 ways 167 00:07:12,450 --> 00:07:13,710 of choosing our pizzas, 168 00:07:13,710 --> 00:07:15,390 16 options for our drinks, 169 00:07:15,390 --> 00:07:18,213 and 28 combinations of desserts we can order. 170 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,120 Therefore, we need to multiply these 171 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:25,680 to get a total of 325 times 16 times 28, 172 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:30,680 or 145,600 different options for this deal. 173 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,750 Whoa, that is a lot of variety! 174 00:07:33,750 --> 00:07:36,210 That is definitely more than 8 times greater 175 00:07:36,210 --> 00:07:39,870 than 728 options you could get with the first deal. 176 00:07:39,870 --> 00:07:42,933 So Amy was wrong after all. 177 00:07:43,770 --> 00:07:45,030 Before you place your order, 178 00:07:45,030 --> 00:07:46,800 you still go through the third deal 179 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:48,330 to make sure you're choosing the offer 180 00:07:48,330 --> 00:07:50,520 with the greatest variety. 181 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:52,140 The Double Delight contains 182 00:07:52,140 --> 00:07:54,510 the same number of pizzas and desserts 183 00:07:54,510 --> 00:07:56,250 as the Family Deal. 184 00:07:56,250 --> 00:07:59,340 Therefore, you already know you have 325 ways 185 00:07:59,340 --> 00:08:00,630 of choosing the pizzas 186 00:08:00,630 --> 00:08:03,243 and another 28 ways of picking the desserts. 187 00:08:04,110 --> 00:08:06,060 Thus, you only have to estimate 188 00:08:06,060 --> 00:08:08,280 the number of ways to pick the beverages 189 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:09,513 that go with your order. 190 00:08:10,830 --> 00:08:12,060 The drinks are large, 191 00:08:12,060 --> 00:08:13,770 so just like with the pizzas, 192 00:08:13,770 --> 00:08:15,450 you decide to get different ones, 193 00:08:15,450 --> 00:08:17,490 since you can share. 194 00:08:17,490 --> 00:08:19,320 Coca-Cola is still running the campaign 195 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,900 where they put names on the labels of each bottle, 196 00:08:21,900 --> 00:08:24,660 so it matters who gets each drink. 197 00:08:24,660 --> 00:08:26,610 For instance, if you want a Coke 198 00:08:26,610 --> 00:08:28,320 and your sister wants a Sprite, 199 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:29,970 you would not want the Coca-Cola label 200 00:08:29,970 --> 00:08:32,730 to have her name instead of yours. 201 00:08:32,730 --> 00:08:34,140 Therefore, it's important 202 00:08:34,140 --> 00:08:36,000 how you order the two beverages 203 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,852 and the special directions you leave for the delivery. 204 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,100 This suggests you must use variations without repetition 205 00:08:44,100 --> 00:08:46,773 to determine the appropriate number of possibilities. 206 00:08:48,660 --> 00:08:50,880 According to the formula we introduced earlier, 207 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,190 the number of ways of choosing your beverages 208 00:08:53,190 --> 00:08:57,450 would equal 4 factorial over 2 factorial. 209 00:08:57,450 --> 00:08:59,550 This results in you having 12 different ways 210 00:08:59,550 --> 00:09:00,700 of getting your drinks. 211 00:09:01,770 --> 00:09:05,010 Since there are 325 ways of picking the pizzas, 212 00:09:05,010 --> 00:09:06,480 12 ways of choosing the drinks, 213 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,090 and 28 ways of selecting the desserts, 214 00:09:09,090 --> 00:09:12,450 that makes up a total of 109,200 215 00:09:12,450 --> 00:09:15,840 distinct, possible orders you can make. 216 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:17,760 Just like with the Family deal offer, 217 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:19,740 the number of possible menus you can get 218 00:09:19,740 --> 00:09:21,750 is more than 8 times greater 219 00:09:21,750 --> 00:09:25,473 than the 728 available for the One Person Combo Pack. 220 00:09:26,610 --> 00:09:28,380 Thus, you showed your friend 221 00:09:28,380 --> 00:09:30,090 that ordering twice as much food 222 00:09:30,090 --> 00:09:32,340 results in having much greater variety 223 00:09:32,340 --> 00:09:33,890 than she had initially thought. 224 00:09:35,730 --> 00:09:39,850 Because 109,200 is less than 145,600, 225 00:09:41,430 --> 00:09:43,740 you decide to go with the Family Deal 226 00:09:43,740 --> 00:09:45,870 instead of the Double Delight 227 00:09:45,870 --> 00:09:48,020 because of the greater variety it provides. 228 00:09:48,990 --> 00:09:51,300 Even though the only difference between the two deals 229 00:09:51,300 --> 00:09:53,190 is the size of one drink, 230 00:09:53,190 --> 00:09:57,753 it results in us having 36,400 more options. 231 00:09:58,620 --> 00:10:00,900 This is a perfect example 232 00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:02,400 of how small changes 233 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:06,750 can severely expand the possible number of outcomes we have. 234 00:10:06,750 --> 00:10:08,160 This only goes to show 235 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,260 that when using combinatorics, 236 00:10:10,260 --> 00:10:11,970 the devil is in the details, 237 00:10:11,970 --> 00:10:14,223 because every small difference matters. 238 00:10:16,110 --> 00:10:17,880 Great job, everybody! 239 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:19,590 In this long, practical example, 240 00:10:19,590 --> 00:10:21,900 we manage to go over the various different parts 241 00:10:21,900 --> 00:10:23,220 of combinatorics, 242 00:10:23,220 --> 00:10:25,200 and when we use each one. 243 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,290 We put all the formulas from the section to good use 244 00:10:28,290 --> 00:10:30,570 and made sure we provide logical arguments 245 00:10:30,570 --> 00:10:33,210 before deciding which one to apply. 246 00:10:33,210 --> 00:10:34,920 The goal of this practical example 247 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,430 was to show you how to apply a probabilistic approach 248 00:10:38,430 --> 00:10:40,110 to everyday scenarios 249 00:10:40,110 --> 00:10:42,930 and get into an analytical mindset. 250 00:10:42,930 --> 00:10:45,630 That was also the end of this section. 251 00:10:45,630 --> 00:10:48,150 Next time, we are going to explore a completely new topic 252 00:10:48,150 --> 00:10:51,210 called Bayesian Inference. 253 00:10:51,210 --> 00:10:52,323 Thanks for watching. 18956

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