Original subtitles

will hisbah launch an allout war on

Israel the Lebanese armed group has

exchanged fire with the Israeli military

but it stopped short of using the most

powerful missiles in its Arsenal so what

could happen if it launches a full

offensive this is Inside

[Music]

Story

hello again I'm James Bay an escalation

in skirmishes between hisbah and Israeli

forces is Raising fears of a wider

conflict Saturday marked the worst day

in recent fighting along Israel's

northern border with Lebanon after six

hisbah Fighters were killed the Iranian

back group and Israel have been

exchanging fire across that border since

Hamas attacked Southern Israel on

October the 7th and the Israeli Prime

Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned hisb

against opening a second warfront with

Israel Netanyahu said that would bring

imaginable Devastation upon Lebanon

Victoria gatenby has our

report the personal possessions of

people living in fear many are

Sheltering in schools like this after

fleeing their homes in southern Lebanon

fighting around the border with Israel

has escalated since Hamas launched its

assault on Southern Israel on October

the 7th the conflict between the

Palestinian groups Ally and the Israeli

Army is Raising fears of a wider War

that's as Israel is massing it forces

for a possible ground Invasion inside

the Gaza

Strip we are concerned and we are part

of this battle let it be clear that

whenever events unfold and something

arises that requires our intervention to

be greater we will do

so Hezbollah is seen as a significant

force in Lebanon wielding both political

and military power the Shia movement

rallied public opinion against the

Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon

after being founded in the early

1980s and despite Israel's withdrawal in

2000 Hezbollah has retained its strength

with financial and Military Support from

Iran for Iran the group is crucial for

deterring any attack by Israel and

exerting influence in Lebanon and the

region Hezbollah has highly skilled

Fighters they helped Syrian president

Bashar alassad during the country's

Civil War and its Arsenal is reported to

contain Iranian Precision guided Iles

Israel considers Hezbollah its most

formidable foe since both sides fought

to a standstill in a 34-day long war in

2006 and now with the United States

deploying two aircraft carriers and

several warships to the Eastern

Mediterranean the risk of an escalation

in fighting in the region is growing

Victoria gate and B for Inside

Story let's bring in in our panel of

guests to discuss this further in Athens

it's Nicholas no editor editor-in-chief

of the Beirut based middle east.com and

News website he's also editor of voice

of Hezbollah the statements of SED

Hassan nasala in Tel Aviv it's Yuri

dromy founding president of the

Jerusalem Press Club he's also a retired

colonel in the Israeli Air Force in

Brussels is Elijah mager military and

political analyst he's covered military

conflict in the Middle East for the past

30 years a warm welcome to you all thank

you very much for talking to us um if I

could start perhaps with you Nicholas

you're today in Athens but you've been

based for many years in Beirut you speak

to people in Lebanon all the time it's

where you're permanently based can you

tell me what is the reaction so far from

people Ordinary People you speak to to

what's going on in Gaza well I actually

just returned from Tunisia where the

outpouring of tunisians onto the streets

in support of Palestinians is tremendous

the largest street protest that they've

seen since the fall of the Ben Ali

regime in 2011

in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Arab

world I'll let Lebanese and Arabs speak

for themselves but I think what we're

seeing and me as an observer someone 20

years in Lebanon H is is seeing and

speaking with friends and trying to find

my way back there right now is uh is

really uh two things one is great anger

over the scenes that are unfolding over

the death and destruction uh great anger

as well and frustration that there seems

to be little to stop uh the devastation

moving forward and I think amongst

Lebanese friends and loved ones and

colleagues a great fear amongst many of

them uh you know most of whom are of

course civilians or unaffiliated or

affiliated with political parties that

have a quite different position than

hasbalah do and they are quite concerned

that a devastated country which is

currently Lebanon could see even wider

Devastation if indeed the border

skirmishes which now many of us are

considering a kind of de facto state of

War if those expand and if they do

expand I think the the general consensus

is that the destruction in Lebanon and

likely in Israel and perhaps elsewhere

is going to be tremendous certainly in

Lebanon and that's exactly what the

Israelis have of course promised Yori

you're a former uh spokesperson for

Israeli governments but you're also a

military man in the past um I want your

assessment Nicholas just used the word

skirmishes other people say clashes what

would you say how would you describe

what's been going on in the north to

this point I

thinkal actually is testing the water uh

we debate among ourselves whether there

was a master plan that Hamas starts

first and then hasbalah moves in when

Israel is sucked in into the Gaza

Quagmire uh but this way or another

um obviously needs to show some

solidarity but I think Nala is still

licking the wounds from and so many

Lebanese as well are licking the wounds

from 2006 and then I think he settles

with those skirmishes I would call call

them indeed uh

and hoping perhaps that Israel will make

the first move and then the blame could

lie on the Israeli side can I get your

assessment of what you think's going on

um because it has been getting slowly

worse slowly more intense in fact

Saturday was the worst day of violence

so far in the north I think Hezbollah is

already in the war which the Israelis

are not realizing yet first of all heah

attacked the Radar Site taking the

initiative in the Shah Farms that is

occupied by the Israelis and considered

as a Lebanese territory

it's imposing an unspoken rules of

engagement on the Israelis

secondly hasah expanded the scope of its

attack targeting area along the borders

with Israel which are 100 kilometers

from the nakura to the Mount of Hermon

on all the borders including to the

Golan height the Syrian occupy Goan

height thirdly hisbah is engaged in

fighting inside the territory controlled

by Israel rather than defending itself

in a Lebanese soil that means for the

first time in the history of

Israel the battle has been moved to the

other territory and not happening on the

territory that is under the attack of

the Israeli Army because normally it's

Israel that takes initiative to start a

war fourthly heah has engaged by

mobilizing ing all its Elite forces

along the border showing that they have

evacuated all the training camps all the

military

facilities and leaving only

concentration area to engage with the

Israelis that is an indication for the

Israeli militaries on the other side of

the borders that hisbah is already at

War and starting within first two

kilometers and now it has EXP ended to 5

kilomet fifth hisbah is

already blinding all these released

electronic surveillances capability by

removing them bombing them using snipers

removing all the thermal surveillance

cameras the sensor the spying devices

communication Towers Etc that is forcing

the Israeli Army to rely on drones and

on physical patrols exposing them to

hisbah laser guided missiles and hitting

so far more or less 40 Israelis between

killed and wounded by starting all this

military operation hisbah had drawn to

itself three Israeli division including

Special Forces to make sure that they

are not going all to Gaza and they are

engaged there forcing the Israeli Army

to create two lines of Defense on the

borders with Lebanon the war has started

already but it's in a different way okay

let me bring in Nicholas on that because

Nicholas you literally wrote the book on

the words of his bu's leader so can I

perhaps give you the words of his bu's

Deputy leader uh Naim kasim shik Naim

kasim um we are trying to weaken the

Israeli enemy and let them know we are

ready he was speaking at a funeral for a

fighter and he went on that they were

keeping three Israeli Army divisions

tied up in the north instead of

preparing to fight in Gaza exactly the

point that Elija just

made what's your comment on those

words yeah I would I would say I mean

first of all you know we we translated

uh and and communicated some of these uh

speeches and interviews over the years

which I think provide the basis for the

Tactical and strategic moves that Elijah

and others are describing right now that

we're seeing and I think one of the most

important things if you actually look at

what hasbalah leaders uh have said

actually quite publicly or in private as

well I think what you need to do as a

first order of business is push back

against what what Yuri just said which

is that healah somehow is still licking

its wounds from the 2006 War I think

quite in reverse that is regarded as a

Divine Victory indeed that's what Nas

Allah has called it that's what you

cited Naim kasum the deputy head has

called it that was actually viewed and

continues to be viewed as a major

strategic victory for Hezbollah and I

would actually also agree with some

analysts who say that that really marked

a turning point where Israel's

qualitative military Edge we can see a

steady decline Visa the military forces

that hez balah has been able to build up

that they have developed through the war

in Syria whether they are for it or

against it they have ex they have

extraordinary battle hardened experience

there

and to say that they look back at 2006

as a kind of something that where they

it cost a tremendous amount indeed it's

quite the reverse and hasbalah leaders

are actually very let's say boyed by the

experiences of 2006 and afterwards in

fact they view that as having been a

victory that lays the framework for what

comes in what they call this next Great

War if we're there right now today we

are not at that moment but I think all

of us probably agree that the factors

kind of that might spark this off or

lead it to an acceleration into an even

deeper conflict um are all building up

by the hour unfortunately if I can bring

you in Yuri um do you yes Yuri do you

think do you think Israel is

underestimating the strength of

hisbah no no I don't think so but I

think hisbah is underestimating the

strength of Israel and the fact that

they look at the uh

what Nicholas Joseph said about looking

at the 2006 campaign as a victory

reminds me of the Egyptians who have a

museum of the uh victory in the Ramadan

war in the Ono war and if you remember

it started with them both the syrians

and Egyptians taking us by surprise and

in one week uh or 10 days we were in the

outskirts of Damascus and 101 kilometer

not from Tel Aviv but from Cairo now 50

years have pass since uh so the question

is is indeed as was said the the quality

edge of uh of Israel is declining uh I

think uh both Hamas and probably will

find out very soon that this is not the

case and uh the IDF has really learned

the lessons and

um if I'm not mistaken then asala

himself is in the bunker for 17 years I

believe and if he used to boast being

the defender of Lebanon I don't think

that many in Lebanon treats him like

that and and in general the idea that

that nalize promoting that Israel is

weakened Israel is like the spiders web

Theory Etc this is misinterpreting what

democracy is and they saw they looked at

the protest uh here in Israel in the

last six or nine months and and and took

it to be a kind of a week of Israel

rather than seeing how vibrant the

Israeli Society is so they're going to

test us again and I think they will be

uh up to big

surprises Elijah I'd like to move on

from 2006 but before we do that that was

a 34 day war and hisbah fired some 4,000

Rockets I remember the Kia Rockets not

very accurate at all just quickly bring

us up to date how has hezbollah's Force

how has its weapons changed since

2006 since 2006 head Port like I think

Iran as well there's nothing can beat

two things first the Israeli Air Force

that is very modern and very powerful

secondly the unlimited support from the

Americans because without the Americans

Israel will never engage in a war

because the war needs a lot of

ammunition and a lot of money to top up

the the Dreadful economy in the state of

War

nobody would go to war without making

sure that they will have a lot of money

and they will be supported and they

create a bridge as the Israelis always

create a bridge with the Americans and

Europeans this time in 2006 VI via isand

to supply the Israelis lack of bombing

because they need a lot of bomb I mean

it's not easy to bomb for 14 days a

small City like Gaza and to achieve the

killing of

1,837 children and 12,23 women it

requires a lot of effort really in a lot

of bombs Now we move on by saying that

hisbah understood that and to compensate

it needs a long range message and if we

look at the distance between Aur andat

that is more or less 400

kilometers that is heah starts fighting

and launching uh missiles from the

borders which is not going to be the

case because hisbah has moved outside

the residential areas to take away from

Israel the excuse of bombing civilians

which is I don't think is going to

happen because the Israelis will bomb

The Villages anyway so because of that

heah needs only a distance to Target haa

and T Aviv where all the

concentration of the Israeli industrial

economic and critical infrastructure is

in hi and tabib which are between 30 to

60 kilometers and because of that with

all this Precision long range missiles

hisbah needs to reduce the range of the

missiles and to increase the explosive

by having half a ton or one ton of

explosive for each

missiles now people will argue that the

Iron Dome will intercept we've seen how

the Iron Dome when flooded with missiles

and Rocket is not capable of

intercepting 100% but it is always

between 55 to 60% which is more than

enough for Hezbollah for 40 out of 100

missiles and according to the Israeli

information heah has

250,000 missiles and Rockets and all his

Rockets have been modified with a very

cheap amount of money to Precision

rockets and we're talking about here to

from 7 to 25 kilometers only so I don't

think hisbah is underestimating the

Israeli power fire fire power it is of

course underestimating the Army itself

when fighting manto man because we have

seen the Invincible Army becoming very

vulnerable after only few hours of Hamas

attack in against

the Gaza Division and in few

uh hours only making so many hundreds

soldiers as hostages or prisoners

including four generals so because of

that and because the damage that is

going to be inflicted of is on

Israel I think Israel needs to think

twice before thinking I'm going to start

the fighting against Israel and I think

it is doing so because For the First

Time in the history of Israel it has

accept to fight on a demarcation line it

is not exceeding a certain kilometer

distance imposed by hisbah by a

non-state actor against the most

powerful Army in the Middle East in just

a few days so the Drone capability of

hisbah the anti-ship missiles the

Precision missile that can hit all the

energy platform hia Harbor all the

airports in Israel will not only [ __ ]

the economy in Israel but will destroy

it totally even if Biden will inject $4

billion doar we see today there are no

more rooms and hotels in Israel they are

starting with stent so for the first

time they are moved to become internally

displaced this is not something very

usual for the Israelis not to find a

place for them and the war on the

Northern front has hasn't started yet

okay let me bring in let me bring in

Yuri there um Elijah paints a picture of

a very sophisticated military force I'd

like to um bring up with you some

reporting which I think is interesting

um comments from the Israeli defense

minister yav Galant uh he seems to be

worried about hisbah he says Hezbollah

is 10 times stronger than Hamas and also

and I'm going to quote where this comes

from the New York Times it says that in

the early days after October the 7th um

Mr Galant the defense minister um

apparently told us Secretary of State

Anthony blinkin that he had advocated a

preemptive strike on Hezbollah but he

was overruled by other Israeli um

officials in your view was he

right

uh I wouldn't Advocate a pre meditated

attack against I would deal thoroughly

with Hamas

first and

keep at Bay I don't

share

Elijah's uh pessimistic or or Bak view

of what's going to happen in a in a war

withal for the simple reason

that if a war

starts uh of course it will begin with

the barrage of missiles and Rockets Etc

and he's right they're going to cause us

a lot of damage but in the few hours of

such war in the few hours definitely in

the day or two uh Israel will inflict on

Lebanon such a a dramatic ER damage that

not only Lebanon or other Lebanese will

uh rise up in but but the whole world

will call for a stop and then we will uh

insist on going on

until steps back uh so I don't think it

will be a protracted War like in 2006 it

will be very very

dramatically uh different from from the

from the other and as as for what Gan

said uh yes some people in Israel

probably G himself believe that uh uh

this is the right moment and we

shouldn't repeat the mistake we did with

Hamas that we let it grow and arm itself

and and become such a huge threat to

Israel and we should deal with it now

because later it will be even more

difficult um I doubt it as I said Israel

should uh keepa at Bay uh and if dragged

into war as I said uh the price Lebanon

will pay would be will be dramatic and I

said it with sorrow because look in the

past we fought army army versus army uh

and and and and but but they leave us no

other choice because they really uh take

all of Lebanon as human shield and this

is what going to happen to Lebanon

unfortunately okay well let's let's

let's bring in Nicholas on that um

Nicholas what is your view I mean leban

is suffering already you had that apping

um Port blast in in Beirut in 2020 it's

suffering one of the worst economic

crisis Any Nation in modern times has

faced not everyone definitely not

everyone in Lebanon supports isbah they

have very passionate supporters but as

you know it's a very divided Society

what would be the reaction in Lebanon

across Lebanese Society if his hisbah

did get

involved well again I'm not Lebanese so

let's let Lebanese speak on behalf of

themselves but what we do know is

previous and there's a long history that

shows I think that Yuri is making a

grave analytical error here in assuming

that if Israel implements its

operational fighting Doctrine known as

the D Doctrine which considers civilian

populated areas and civilian

infrastructure as lawful enemy

combatants and a wide destruction as

they've said they'll turn Lebanon into a

parking lot if they think that that's

going to then turn other communities

against Lebanon we have example after

example through the last 20 30 40 Years

of where actually the opposite happens

it leads to National solidarity and

support against an outside enemy that's

so widely destructive so the notion that

Lebanese are going to rise up wildly or

massively and create a kind of military

balance against Hezbollah is dangerous

fantasy in my view simply because of the

history but again Lebanese can speak to

that better than I can I think also

there's a grave error here in thinking

that it will will just be a bunch of

rockets for example this is not 2006

there are very likely going to be

significant ground incursions by

Hezbollah which have been telegraphed

and telescoped over the last 15 years

I'll also remind everyone that it was

more than 10 years ago that Hezbollah

successfully flew a drone undetected

over Israel's main nuclear power

facility in deona undetected and that

was a long time ago the different of

I'd like to bring in Elijah one more

time if there is a ground intervention a

ground Invasion by Israel do you think

hisa will act a brief answer

please um I don't think it's going to be

immediate reaction to interfere on a

contrary I can share share some

insightful information through my

sources within the group so I think

today it is inah's Advantage for Israel

to break into Gaza and to be in engage

in Gaza so the weaker the Israelis are

the lack of security the Israeli Society

has with its Army and its intelligent uh

um forces and the engagement in Gaza

with all their might will give the

possibility for hisbah to take advantage

of the situation because it's an

opportunity and then be in

lli even if it's going to be to a larger

War

that is going to be deadly for both but

the question is is Israel ready for that

is are the Americans ready because they

have also bases in the area and they are

starting to be targeted is

Israel prepared to have a mass in

internally displaced people being so

deadly wounded that starting to

crumbling already there is no support

for the government even if in case of

War everybody supports netan but they

can't wait the moment to kick him out of

the government so today there's a lack

of security in Israel after what

happened in Gaza and outside Gaza in the

first hours on the 7th of October and

this confidence is going to be

deteriorate even more as 50,000 people

have been evacuated in the last 72 hours

from the borders with Lebanon and more

are going to be evacuated to where is

this what the Israeli government

promising to the Israelis bringing them

from all over the world to give them

security of course not and when the bomb

start falling that nobody is going to

count the bomb but everybody is going to

look at the screaming and as your guest

from Israel rightly said they want the

world to interfere to stop it because

someone else need to bring everybody

down the tree because they stuck there

and they know what are the consequences

that are going to be detrimental for

Israel for the first time in its life

since 1948 Elijah thank you very much

thank you to our panel of guests that's

where we have to leave it our guest

today were Yuri dromy Nicholas no and

Elijah magnier if you want to go back

and see this or any of our other

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story from me James Bay and the inside

story team please stay safe I'll see you

again

soon