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Okay, so good evening.
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For those of you that are new,
quick introduction.
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Right, that's me.
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I don't normally introduce myself, but I
know I got a boost of followers recently.
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Probably because I didn't actually open my
mouth for most of July, which always helps.
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But anyway, I figured it's
probably one of the most
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outspoken people you're
going to hear for a while.
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I might as well tell you that I do have
experience.
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I've been trading, well, since the year
2000, so just over 16 years, made every
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mistake in the book, lost a lot of money,
made a bit more than I've lost.
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Once, cried my eyes out on the bust and
morgue after a particularly bad copper trade.
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I went full-time in 2007,
now trade my own account
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and trade for a Chicago-based
prop firm as well.
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I should add that I do swear a fuck of a
lot and sometimes joke about religion.
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But I do believe in God, I'm not
misogynistic.
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Only other thing I'd say is that Jimmy
Savile was a sick, sick man.
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So that brings me to the hearing now.
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I wanted to go through some charts
tonight.
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But then I thought I'd have a rant because
looking at a chart and working out the
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best place to buy and sell doesn't make
you profitable.
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Only one thing makes you profitable,
which is execution.
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So how you act will determine your success
and ultimately longevity in this game.
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So I want to dwell on that.
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So with that in mind, here is my little
checklist to tell if you're a cunt.
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Seriously, six steps, not
the only ones mine, but six
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steps to tell if you're the
weak hand at the table.
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Let's go through them.
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So number one, do you
regularly pun to trade with
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real money out of sheer
boredom due to inactivity?
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Everybody does this at some point in their
career.
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It usually doesn't end well.
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00:02:04,330 --> 00:02:08,550
But such is the nature of
markets that sometimes you
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do actually get rewarded
for trading like a turd.
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And you know, that keeps you doing it.
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If you think about it, if
you lost money every time
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you did something, you'd
stop doing it pretty quickly.
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But sometimes because you make money doing
something dumb, it just keeps you cracking
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it over time and it's incredibly
insidious.
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But anyway, if you are getting into trades
with little reasoning other than I haven't
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done anything for a while and I'm bored,
then that is a problem that should be solved.
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And I bring this up because I'm so sick of
seeing traders going through their trades
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with me and saying, oh, this trade was
good and I made four R on this.
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And then I gave it all back as the next
four or all shit.
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And I asked them, why were they in those
trades?
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And they come up with things like, I don't
even know why I was in it looking back on it.
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I guess I was just bored.
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And that says it all, you know,
we're all traders, okay?
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And we all want to trade, obviously.
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00:03:02,175 --> 00:03:08,350
But you have to understand
that the work in this job is
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identifying, watching and
waiting for a prime opportunity.
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You know, the sniper theme is getting a
little old now.
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But, you know, it's as good as any cliche.
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So, what I would advise on this is go
through your trades and if it's genuinely
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a boredom trade that you've
made, log the outcome and watch
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it over time so that you've
got black and white results.
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But I would add here that don't talk your
book, okay, because this is a mistake as well.
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I spoke to a guy only the
other day that said they
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lost money on a trade
they took out of boredom.
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And I said to this guy, oh, you mug,
you know, where did you get in?
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And he said, oh, price broke a decent
level on the hourly time frame.
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And I saw the market come back into that
level.
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And the level lined up with the VWAP.
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And I thought it was a good chance it
would bounce, so I got in.
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And I'm like, well, hold on, that sounds
relatively calculated to me.
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And he said, yeah, but it lost money.
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The bottom line is this.
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Only you know if it's something you should
have done or not.
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Only you know if it's a boredom trade,
or it's a trade that fit your plan.
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But don't be clouded by the outcome.
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Sometimes trades lose because that's what
happens.
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You just get, you know, to use the old
poker terminology a bad beat.
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So point number two here,
have you risked more than
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usual because your last
few trades were losers.
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This is a classic gambler's mistake.
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You know trying to take more risk on to
make them money back quicker.
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Has this ever ended well for anyone?
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No, I thought not.
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Let's go on to point number three.
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A lot of people get this.
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This recently bias, something hasn't
worked for a few trades.
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They stop using it and they look for the
next flavor of the month.
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I'm not saying stick with something for
years and years.
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There comes a point where if it's not
working and you've been sticking to the
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rules and you know you've
been executing well, you've got
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to knock it on its head and
say it doesn't fucking work.
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But at the end of the day, a lot of people
are way too quick to ditch things.
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And sometimes you've got to understand
that certain strategies aren't
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particularly good in certain market
conditions.
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But they could work amazingly with other
conditions.
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And sometimes that's half the game.
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You know working out what market phase
you're in.
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Point number four here.
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If you've been around
Twitter for five minutes,
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you'll know exactly
what I'm talking about.
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A lot of people out there
obsessed with who's making
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what and how much
percentage return they've made.
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Just understand one thing.
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Anyone can make 40 fucking percent in a
week if they're risking 20% of trade.
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No serious trader will ever boast a return
like this unless it was a black swan event.
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Unless they happen to, you
know, for some reason, to
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get short the Euro swissi
on the day the floor broke.
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Unless they were short cable just before
Brexit.
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You know, something like that.
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Yeah, you can come up and you can say I
made 40% in a week.
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But you've got these cuts on Twitter.
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You know, acting like this is a regular
weekly occurrence.
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And it's the biggest red flag of all that
someone is not legit.
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And by the way, just a little aside here.
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This is a good old 50% here with bundles
of money in the background.
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And a quote from him on the right.
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I won't try and do his accent.
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But here we go.
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Just because I'm photographed in or next
to a certain vehicle wearing an article of
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clothing, holding a product, sitting next
to what appears to be large sums of money
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or modeling expensive piece of jewelry
doesn't mean I own everything in those photos.
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Yeah, no shit.
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So, you know, stop believing these fucking
demo ballers on Instagram.
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I actually get emails from people,
okay.
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Saying things like, hey Tom, I just been
checking out this guy on Instagram.
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You know, the guy that drives the
Lamborghini and he's been saying he makes
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100 % a week, pretty much week in,
week out.
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Is this realistic?
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How many of these emails can I answer
saying, get a fucking grip?
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Number 5, have you
thought about stopping for the
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day after a winner for
fear of giving it all back?
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What I would say to people here is,
is your conviction in your own skill so
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low that being up on the days are reason
to stop.
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I've found, speaking from personal
experience here, that with very,
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very little exception, days
that start out good invariably
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get better and days that start
out bad invariably get worse.
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Okay, so what I'm trying to say there is
if my days starts out with a couple of
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losers, it's fairly rare for me to get back
to break even, let alone to get into profit.
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But if my days starts out with a couple of
winners usually I go from strength to
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strength and I'm going to have an
incredibly good day.
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So it's quite rare for me to
get a couple of trades up and be
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doing well and then to give it
all back in the afternoon session.
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Now, that's just me, but I
have found, from speaking
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to many people, that a
lot of people are the same.
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Some days you're just not feeling it and
you dig yourself into a real big hole if
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you don't stop relatively quickly and
other days the market is particularly
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conducive for what you're doing or you're
running hot and you don't want to stop.
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Now, I would say, you know, play to that
but naturally this presumes you're not the
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kind of turd that, you know, has a winner
and thinks he's fucking pulled you to
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Jones and starts taking a hand for the
shit trades left-right and center.
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But as long as you can stay calm and you
can execute your edge, don't be afraid,
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you know, if the market's rewarding you
either held you want to stop early.
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I mean, grow a pair of fucking balls.
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So, number six, have you
moved the stop to break
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even for the only reason
that you cannot now lose?
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I mean, everybody does this, don't they?
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Sometimes I think I'm the only one that
doesn't.
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So, the question I would
put out there in relation to this
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is, are you trading the market
or are you trading your P&L?
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It's very, very simple.
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People sell a level and
the market moves to a
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new low, like you can
see on the slide here.
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And they move their stop to break even,
which in this case is the last swing high.
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And then the market gets up there and they
get stopped out and this happens.
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And you say to them, I don't understand,
why did you buy back at resistance?
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And they say, because I didn't want to
lose.
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And it doesn't make any sense.
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You know, that person
is literally moved their
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stop there because they
don't want to lose money.
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But nothing to do with
technicals and yet they're
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telling me they're a
fucking technical trader.
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00:09:26,740 --> 00:09:30,470
So, I've come to realize over time,
as I'm sure many of you have, that markets
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often punish those that enter the market
at obvious pattern trigger points.
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So, for example, typically, if I'm going
to sell in an area like this, what I'm
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almost always going to do is offset the
position and buy back as the market looks
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particularly weak.
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So as it breaks the low, we're using some
of the available liquidity to buy back up
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positions and wait and see what happens
under there.
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00:09:59,411 --> 00:10:03,050
Because a lot of the time when the market
breaks prior swing lows on momentum,
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there is often a stitch up.
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00:10:04,770 --> 00:10:06,130
Oftentimes, there'll be a squeeze.
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00:10:06,270 --> 00:10:10,530
It's just enough to try
and take out the weak
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00:10:10,531 --> 00:10:11,531
hands that enter at
this advantageous price.
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00:10:12,030 --> 00:10:15,710
So, you know, for me, I get out and wait
and see if we get acceptance underneath
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00:10:15,810 --> 00:10:20,410
these areas, then you'll find that a lot of
the time you can get back in on a retest.
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00:10:20,411 --> 00:10:20,910
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Because, again, what happens here,
the infamous break even move, the even if
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00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:30,770
you sell underneath here, and it does keep
going, before long, it's usually going to
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00:10:30,771 --> 00:10:34,330
come back as the market often does and
retest the pattern trigger point.
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00:10:34,730 --> 00:10:38,450
And again, a lot of these guys that have
seen their profits are not going to want
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00:10:38,451 --> 00:10:40,331
to lose, so they're going to move to break
even.
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00:10:40,730 --> 00:10:43,566
And of course, they're going to be buying
straight back into the prior low,
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00:10:43,590 --> 00:10:46,630
and oftentimes you see the
market do this, and then people
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00:10:46,631 --> 00:10:47,831
whining about how they've
got stocked out of break even.
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00:10:49,560 --> 00:10:52,170
So, think about why you're moving to break
even.
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00:10:52,190 --> 00:10:55,590
I know there'll be times when you can move
to break even, then it's fine to do so,
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00:10:55,710 --> 00:10:59,830
but are you moving to break even just
because you don't want to lose money?
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00:11:00,070 --> 00:11:02,070
And I would say that is the wrong decision
to make.
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00:11:05,020 --> 00:11:12,870
So, now we are going to move on to things
I have actually received via email.
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These are from people that genuinely want
to succeed.
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00:11:20,900 --> 00:11:25,390
I can tell because they've
been at it for months, in
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00:11:25,391 --> 00:11:26,471
some cases years, and I've
known them for a long time.
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00:11:26,810 --> 00:11:31,910
And that is why I call this little slide
soul-destroying snippets, because every
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00:11:31,911 --> 00:11:36,810
time I read one of these fucking comments,
a little bit of me dies, and that's why I
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00:11:37,035 --> 00:11:38,635
want to try and give this reality check.
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00:11:38,740 --> 00:11:43,510
So, people say this, I want the big money.
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00:11:46,510 --> 00:11:50,010
You want the big money,
but you've got an account
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00:11:50,110 --> 00:11:51,110
smaller than Donald
Trump's dick for fuck's sake.
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00:11:51,390 --> 00:11:56,230
I mean, it will invariably mean that you
take too much risk and blow the account.
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00:11:56,550 --> 00:11:57,790
There's no two ways about it.
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00:11:57,910 --> 00:11:59,190
I did this for years.
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00:12:00,010 --> 00:12:04,190
I wanted the big money, and it caused a
lot of problems in my trading,
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00:12:04,390 --> 00:12:07,170
and it manifested itself actually in two
ways.
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00:12:07,245 --> 00:12:13,310
The first was that try and make big money,
I always bet too large for my account.
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00:12:13,550 --> 00:12:17,650
And as we all know, if you do that,
a string of losers is going to wipe you
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00:12:17,651 --> 00:12:20,230
out, and you are going to get a string of
losers.
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00:12:20,650 --> 00:12:22,950
It's as guaranteed as fucking death and
taxes.
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00:12:23,450 --> 00:12:26,170
The only people that don't get strings of
losers are Twitter traders.
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00:12:26,330 --> 00:12:30,850
Everybody else that is trading for a
living, including the top professional
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00:12:30,851 --> 00:12:35,450
traders, working for fucking banks,
institutions, proffers, hedge funds...
223
00:12:35,451 --> 00:12:39,270
You're going to have strings of losers,
several losers in a row.
224
00:12:39,470 --> 00:12:42,730
Sometimes you're going to lose the
periods, several weeks in a row.
225
00:12:43,030 --> 00:12:47,310
I know pro traders that have
made millions in this game, that
226
00:12:47,311 --> 00:12:49,450
have had periods where they've
lost several months in a row.
227
00:12:50,220 --> 00:12:52,770
It happens, but it's like a taboo subject
out there.
228
00:12:52,830 --> 00:12:56,390
People don't want to talk
about it, obviously, because
229
00:12:56,391 --> 00:12:57,530
it's in a front to your
ego, but it will happen.
230
00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,690
So, if you get that when you're trading too
large, you're going to blow that account.
231
00:13:01,691 --> 00:13:02,010
232
00:13:02,410 --> 00:13:07,010
But the thing is, when I used prudent risk
management, and I thought, okay,
233
00:13:07,130 --> 00:13:11,310
Tom, look, you can't go 10% on every
single trade trying to build an account
234
00:13:11,460 --> 00:13:12,690
because you're going to blow it all...
235
00:13:12,691 --> 00:13:17,910
You got to do 1% risk
of trade, then I found
236
00:13:17,911 --> 00:13:18,911
that I just mismanaged
all my winning trades.
237
00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:24,590
The reason I'm mismanaged the winning
trades is because I would sit there with a
238
00:13:24,591 --> 00:13:30,930
swing trading strategy looking for my three
or four high probability trades a week.
239
00:13:30,931 --> 00:13:31,110
240
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,770
So, day one, I might sit
there and I'm watching
241
00:13:34,771 --> 00:13:35,290
the market move, but
I don't get a trade on.
242
00:13:35,670 --> 00:13:39,630
Day two, I'm watching the market move,
nothing in the morning, in the afternoon,
243
00:13:39,970 --> 00:13:40,970
the trade sets up.
244
00:13:41,190 --> 00:13:44,950
I crack it with my fucking 500 pound
account at 1% risk.
245
00:13:45,170 --> 00:13:48,330
I'm basically risking pennies per pit on
the trade.
246
00:13:48,730 --> 00:13:52,090
And I get in and the trade works,
and it goes up 50 pips, or what have you.
247
00:13:52,420 --> 00:13:54,970
And I look at my P&L, I've made 20 fucking
pounds.
248
00:13:56,070 --> 00:13:59,110
And you think to yourself, Jesus Christ,
I've waited a day and a half, and I've
249
00:13:59,111 --> 00:14:00,991
made 20 pounds, I'm never going to get
anywhere.
250
00:14:01,335 --> 00:14:03,470
And people say, oh, we'll think in
percentages.
251
00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:05,880
Think of the percentage increase in your
account.
252
00:14:06,070 --> 00:14:09,650
I mean, this is just a thing that people
say that has no fucking bearing on reality.
253
00:14:09,651 --> 00:14:10,110
254
00:14:10,330 --> 00:14:13,550
Because it's all well and good to say, think
of the percentage return, but we don't.
255
00:14:13,610 --> 00:14:15,010
We look at the money.
256
00:14:15,390 --> 00:14:19,010
And we feel debilitated
because we feel like we spend
257
00:14:19,011 --> 00:14:20,106
a lot of time, and we
haven't seen a lot of money.
258
00:14:20,130 --> 00:14:22,670
And so, what I would do is I would try and
run everything.
259
00:14:23,090 --> 00:14:26,330
And I would say, you know what,
at the small size I'm on, I got to run
260
00:14:26,331 --> 00:14:29,370
this fucking 300 pips to make any kind of
decent money.
261
00:14:29,371 --> 00:14:33,610
Which means that suddenly, one minute I'm
on an hourly chart, the next minute I'm on
262
00:14:33,611 --> 00:14:37,170
a weekly and a fucking monthly chart,
trying to find reasons to run that trade.
263
00:14:37,410 --> 00:14:41,050
And all the time I would
just see these winners,
264
00:14:41,051 --> 00:14:41,450
come back to losers
as I try to run them.
265
00:14:41,750 --> 00:14:45,090
And of course, on top of that,
I'm getting the natural losers that occur
266
00:14:45,091 --> 00:14:47,430
on any strategy, so all I'm doing is I'm
losing money.
267
00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:48,960
So, I'm fucked either way.
268
00:14:49,010 --> 00:14:50,330
I take too much risk, I'm fucked.
269
00:14:50,590 --> 00:14:52,410
I take prudent risk, I'm fucked.
270
00:14:52,725 --> 00:14:56,130
But it all comes from the fact that you're
trading with a small account.
271
00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:58,080
There's two things that you can do.
272
00:14:58,270 --> 00:15:02,590
One thing that you can do
that will work, most likely,
273
00:15:02,591 --> 00:15:04,110
is funding a decent size
account with meaningful money.
274
00:15:04,390 --> 00:15:07,370
But most people just don't have that money,
that they can commit to a trading account.
275
00:15:07,371 --> 00:15:07,730
276
00:15:08,290 --> 00:15:11,730
So, the only other thing you can do is
just commit to the long haul.
277
00:15:12,110 --> 00:15:15,130
And it's easy for me to say it,
but it's hard, because you've got to start
278
00:15:15,131 --> 00:15:18,490
looking at this business in terms of
years.
279
00:15:18,590 --> 00:15:23,550
Okay, not fucking days,
not weeks, and no, not even
280
00:15:23,551 --> 00:15:24,970
months before you get
what you want to be, years.
281
00:15:25,290 --> 00:15:28,890
If you start with a thousand dollar
account, I'm sorry, but you're looking at
282
00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,090
years before you're going to be making any
kind of decent money.
283
00:15:32,430 --> 00:15:34,350
And people don't want to hear it,
but it is true.
284
00:15:34,490 --> 00:15:35,490
It's true.
285
00:15:37,190 --> 00:15:41,990
The other thing I would
say regarding the money in
286
00:15:41,991 --> 00:15:43,510
general is stop thinking
about the money all together.
287
00:15:43,985 --> 00:15:47,930
Money gravitates towards those who don't
dream about it.
288
00:15:48,370 --> 00:15:54,010
I got an email from someone the other day
that said, I want to dare to dream.
289
00:15:54,940 --> 00:15:56,110
I want to dare to dream.
290
00:15:56,450 --> 00:15:57,630
Stop fucking dreaming.
291
00:15:57,890 --> 00:15:58,890
Bunch of fucking fairies.
292
00:15:59,030 --> 00:16:00,390
Dreaming all day about being rich.
293
00:16:00,910 --> 00:16:04,150
Oh, wouldn't it be
nice if I could afford a
294
00:16:04,250 --> 00:16:04,750
flatland beginning with
number plates, ledge one?
295
00:16:05,110 --> 00:16:07,770
No, it won't be nice, because you won't
have a fucking time to drive it.
296
00:16:07,771 --> 00:16:09,890
You'll be too busy working to maintain
your edge.
297
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:11,766
If you're new, let me get this straight.
298
00:16:11,790 --> 00:16:13,610
This is insanely hard work.
299
00:16:15,170 --> 00:16:17,530
And you will work until you drop.
300
00:16:17,690 --> 00:16:18,846
You'll probably lose your health.
301
00:16:18,870 --> 00:16:21,530
You'll get fucking back pain, eye strain,
headache, stress.
302
00:16:21,950 --> 00:16:23,566
Then there's the money you're going to
lose.
303
00:16:23,590 --> 00:16:27,170
The strain on your relationships,
as you become gradually more introspective
304
00:16:27,171 --> 00:16:30,330
and moody, with this rollercoaster of a
market taking its toll.
305
00:16:30,650 --> 00:16:32,630
And after all of that, you might not make
it.
306
00:16:32,631 --> 00:16:36,330
And if you do make it, if you're lucky
enough to be one of the few that makes it,
307
00:16:36,390 --> 00:16:39,590
you've got to remember that the market
will likely change at some point.
308
00:16:39,905 --> 00:16:42,705
So this will cause you even more stress as
you try and keep up with it.
309
00:16:42,940 --> 00:16:46,870
And I'm sorry that a lot
of you guys don't want to
310
00:16:46,871 --> 00:16:47,871
hear this, but nobody
else is going to tell you this.
311
00:16:47,930 --> 00:16:51,270
And I'm not saying it, because,
you know, I don't think you should get
312
00:16:51,271 --> 00:16:55,290
into trading, but I'm
saying be fucking real
313
00:16:55,291 --> 00:16:55,890
about the business if
you're going to get into it.
314
00:16:56,140 --> 00:17:01,010
And stack the odds in your favor by not
wasting time with shit, okay?
315
00:17:01,230 --> 00:17:02,410
Like point number two here.
316
00:17:02,930 --> 00:17:03,510
Point number two.
317
00:17:03,590 --> 00:17:07,270
This is a real email, but I got in the
last couple of weeks.
318
00:17:07,470 --> 00:17:08,470
I shit you not.
319
00:17:08,950 --> 00:17:11,770
I'm scouting pound yen for five to ten
pips.
320
00:17:12,030 --> 00:17:17,770
It's not easy, because my spread is four
pips, but it's going well so far.
321
00:17:18,715 --> 00:17:22,310
How many trades has that guy done if he's
saying that's going well so far?
322
00:17:22,610 --> 00:17:25,630
If he's done more than ten fucking trades,
I saw my own dick off.
323
00:17:25,990 --> 00:17:27,450
I mean, get a fucking grip.
324
00:17:27,930 --> 00:17:32,110
Scalping the pound yen for five to ten
pips with the spread of four pips.
325
00:17:32,430 --> 00:17:35,650
This is the most ridiculous thing I've
ever heard.
326
00:17:36,270 --> 00:17:39,510
I mean, you lift the offer and you're out
half to one already.
327
00:17:40,210 --> 00:17:44,070
And a person that sent
me this is probably watching
328
00:17:44,071 --> 00:17:45,071
this and thinking this
bounty is a fucking cunt.
329
00:17:45,460 --> 00:17:50,710
Well, maybe I am, but I'm just trying to
lay it out there, because it's painful for
330
00:17:50,711 --> 00:17:53,850
me seeing people write to me and say these
things.
331
00:17:56,655 --> 00:17:57,655
This is another one.
332
00:17:57,980 --> 00:17:59,430
Someone text me this the other day.
333
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:05,450
I got a loser, but I was
getting my hair cut and
334
00:18:05,451 --> 00:18:06,451
couldn't see the charts
properly on the phone.
335
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:08,120
I mean, don't get me wrong.
336
00:18:08,190 --> 00:18:09,890
I actually check markets for my phone.
337
00:18:10,510 --> 00:18:16,250
And, you know, you can use
the phone to adjust orders,
338
00:18:16,251 --> 00:18:17,510
but trying to scout whilst
in the fucking barbers.
339
00:18:18,150 --> 00:18:20,431
I mean, you'd lose in the head to head
with Stevie Wonder.
340
00:18:21,010 --> 00:18:22,010
Get out.
341
00:18:22,820 --> 00:18:25,426
Get out to that person that just said
they're using a watch to trade.
342
00:18:25,450 --> 00:18:26,770
What is this fucking night rider?
343
00:18:27,275 --> 00:18:28,755
But you know why people are doing it?
344
00:18:28,810 --> 00:18:32,990
Because once again, they're
using Twitter and they're
345
00:18:32,991 --> 00:18:34,250
using Instagram and they're
looking at all these ballers.
346
00:18:34,251 --> 00:18:36,291
You're trying to trade pound dollar off
their phone.
347
00:18:36,530 --> 00:18:37,850
And they think that's acceptable.
348
00:18:38,330 --> 00:18:39,330
It's not acceptable.
349
00:18:39,370 --> 00:18:42,710
Real traders, professional traders aren't
trading off a fucking phone.
350
00:18:43,810 --> 00:18:45,110
Or a watch.
351
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:47,320
Right, number four.
352
00:18:50,140 --> 00:18:51,780
This doesn't make any sense to me at all.
353
00:18:52,350 --> 00:18:54,550
I will get confident when I'm profitable.
354
00:18:55,990 --> 00:18:58,030
Like, as often say to people, you need
confidence.
355
00:18:58,940 --> 00:19:00,810
So I will get confident when I'm
profitable.
356
00:19:00,811 --> 00:19:02,910
No, it doesn't work like that.
357
00:19:03,150 --> 00:19:09,290
You have to be confident
or at least trade with
358
00:19:09,291 --> 00:19:10,291
confidence to get
profitable in the first place.
359
00:19:10,460 --> 00:19:15,390
There is like, this kind of circular logic
that you can see on the screen.
360
00:19:15,510 --> 00:19:19,230
So a lot of people say,
listen, I'm not confident
361
00:19:19,231 --> 00:19:20,750
at the moment because
I'm not making any money.
362
00:19:21,050 --> 00:19:23,630
But I will be as soon as I see results.
363
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:25,410
And this leads to this.
364
00:19:25,590 --> 00:19:29,950
I'm so unconfident that I
keep second guessing myself
365
00:19:29,951 --> 00:19:31,350
on trades and badly
managing those that I take.
366
00:19:31,630 --> 00:19:34,590
But hey, shit, I'm not confident,
but I will be as soon as I see results.
367
00:19:35,130 --> 00:19:36,990
And it goes round and round and round.
368
00:19:37,425 --> 00:19:43,490
If you procrastinate when you're about to
pull the trigger, if you have three losing
369
00:19:43,491 --> 00:19:47,530
trades and you shit
yourself and won't step up for
370
00:19:47,531 --> 00:19:48,750
the fourth one, these
are all confidence issues.
371
00:19:48,850 --> 00:19:52,850
And it's not going to magically work that
one morning you're going to wake up and
372
00:19:52,851 --> 00:19:55,171
you're going to be profitable and brimming
with confidence.
373
00:19:55,580 --> 00:19:57,250
You have to be confident first.
374
00:19:57,630 --> 00:20:03,370
I'll tell you that all the guys that I've
known that have either got profitable with
375
00:20:03,371 --> 00:20:07,250
or without my help have been extremely
confident people.
376
00:20:07,251 --> 00:20:11,990
They've been the people that have been
saying, I'm going to make it in this game
377
00:20:11,991 --> 00:20:14,191
and they've put their head down and
they've worked hard.
378
00:20:14,650 --> 00:20:17,490
But you haven't been able to knock their
spirit.
379
00:20:18,070 --> 00:20:21,290
And they'll be able to go through drawdown
and remain strong.
380
00:20:21,930 --> 00:20:23,570
It's not a game for people that are weak.
381
00:20:23,810 --> 00:20:26,470
To be honest with you, the
market will take its pound of
382
00:20:26,471 --> 00:20:27,791
flesh, you have to be strong,
you have to be confident.
383
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,900
Three stupid fucking mistakes to be making
in your trading.
384
00:20:36,420 --> 00:20:39,300
Well, these are probably the most common.
385
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,320
I actually did a peristope on this
relatively recently.
386
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,080
But we'll go through them again now.
387
00:20:46,470 --> 00:20:50,080
Number one, letting a bias infect your
thinking.
388
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,420
So basically getting hooked on a bias.
389
00:20:54,330 --> 00:20:56,440
So there's nothing wrong with having a
bias.
390
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:57,740
I use one when I trade.
391
00:20:57,980 --> 00:21:00,840
Sometimes I look at the
charts and say, right, I've
392
00:21:00,841 --> 00:21:01,960
got a strong feeling
we're going to go up today.
393
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,721
And I'll get along and I'll try and hold
my long position.
394
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,920
But it becomes a problem when you start
talking your book.
395
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:13,300
You need to watch the price action and
watch how it's responding to your belief
396
00:21:13,900 --> 00:21:15,340
that it is going to go up.
397
00:21:15,940 --> 00:21:20,620
So in this example that I've got here, the
trader gets long on the break of resistance.
398
00:21:20,621 --> 00:21:21,020
399
00:21:21,530 --> 00:21:22,880
The market makes a double top.
400
00:21:23,140 --> 00:21:25,880
And they start saying something like, ah,
it's just going to be a temporary double top.
401
00:21:25,881 --> 00:21:26,881
402
00:21:27,120 --> 00:21:28,440
You know, nothing to worry about.
403
00:21:29,260 --> 00:21:32,120
Then should bounce here off the price
support level.
404
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:33,820
Oh no, it's broken lower.
405
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,900
But don't worry, this is just a flush of
those that bought the previous double bottom.
406
00:21:36,901 --> 00:21:37,220
407
00:21:37,340 --> 00:21:38,220
It's going to bounce here.
408
00:21:38,221 --> 00:21:42,220
Actually, once it's flushed out everyone
that's long apart from me, because I'm not
409
00:21:42,221 --> 00:21:45,141
a cunt, it'll flush everyone else out,
and then it's going to go vertical.
410
00:21:45,950 --> 00:21:47,580
Fucking hell, I can't get out down here.
411
00:21:47,740 --> 00:21:49,420
There's no way I'm losing this much money.
412
00:21:49,540 --> 00:21:51,440
Shit, I'm really doing my ass here.
413
00:21:51,820 --> 00:21:52,980
Fuck, I've got to go out.
414
00:21:54,810 --> 00:21:56,880
And then, of course, the age old classic.
415
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,240
I swear I won't do this again for at least
a month.
416
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,780
But again, there's nothing
wrong with having a bias, but
417
00:22:03,781 --> 00:22:07,080
you need to make sure that
you are watching the market.
418
00:22:08,020 --> 00:22:10,400
And reacting to the price action.
419
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,280
Now, there's a grey line between reacting
and overreacting.
420
00:22:14,500 --> 00:22:16,020
You don't want to micromanage a chart.
421
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,420
I saw somebody the other
day that took a trade off
422
00:22:19,421 --> 00:22:20,421
a daily chart, and was
managing it on a one minute.
423
00:22:20,540 --> 00:22:21,620
You're dense, I'm sorry.
424
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:22,920
That is just stupid.
425
00:22:23,590 --> 00:22:26,380
I've seen people doing many different
varieties of that.
426
00:22:26,860 --> 00:22:32,100
One guy was justifying a trade off a
monthly chart that he was looking to run,
427
00:22:32,220 --> 00:22:34,540
but managing it on a 15 minute stupidity.
428
00:22:34,541 --> 00:22:36,740
Absolute stupidity, as far as I'm
concerned.
429
00:22:36,741 --> 00:22:39,700
I mean, tell me if you
think I'm being harsh
430
00:22:39,701 --> 00:22:40,000
here, but I honestly
think that he's stupid.
431
00:22:40,460 --> 00:22:41,460
Maybe it's just me.
432
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,520
But anyway, what I'm saying
is that you can't micromanage,
433
00:22:45,521 --> 00:22:47,120
but you've got to generally
watch the price action.
434
00:22:47,121 --> 00:22:50,281
On the time frame you've got in and think,
is this looking good for my position?
435
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,880
So letting a bias effect
you're thinking lead to large
436
00:22:55,900 --> 00:22:56,920
losses, unnecessary losses,
and it's very dangerous.
437
00:22:57,730 --> 00:22:58,800
The next one, FOMO.
438
00:22:59,460 --> 00:23:02,380
I'm not even going to dwell too much on
this, because I don't understand this.
439
00:23:02,381 --> 00:23:06,940
I like to think that I'm quite
understanding of problems in general.
440
00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:10,240
You know, traders can
come to me and say, I've got
441
00:23:10,241 --> 00:23:10,640
this issue, and I'll try
and help them with it.
442
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:12,580
But I don't understand FOMO.
443
00:23:12,620 --> 00:23:17,460
I can't even really be
sympathetic with FOMO,
444
00:23:17,461 --> 00:23:17,880
which is, of course,
fear of missing out.
445
00:23:18,190 --> 00:23:22,380
So, on something like
this, in my hypothetical
446
00:23:22,381 --> 00:23:23,200
example here, it looks
like it's rolling over.
447
00:23:23,201 --> 00:23:24,620
Trader wants to sell a pullback.
448
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,960
He's praying for a pullback, thinking it's
the short of a lifetime.
449
00:23:27,961 --> 00:23:29,220
It's getting away from them.
450
00:23:29,340 --> 00:23:31,176
They're sitting there saying, fuck,
fuck, fuck.
451
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:31,980
There's no pullback.
452
00:23:32,100 --> 00:23:33,280
Look how relentless this is.
453
00:23:33,500 --> 00:23:34,280
It's down 100.
454
00:23:34,460 --> 00:23:37,160
And finally, they just throw in the towel
and go bulls deep short.
455
00:23:38,070 --> 00:23:39,230
And, of course, this happens.
456
00:23:39,360 --> 00:23:42,260
Which always happens, when a market is
down massively.
457
00:23:42,620 --> 00:23:44,580
And you can't bear it anymore.
458
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,100
Seeing the market that you
thought was going to go down,
459
00:23:48,101 --> 00:23:49,301
get away from you and
you just steam in and sell it.
460
00:23:49,705 --> 00:23:54,020
And I speak to people all day that can't
control themselves.
461
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:58,360
They're whining like a little bit, right,
saying, oh, I miss this 100-tip move.
462
00:23:58,361 --> 00:23:58,640
463
00:23:58,940 --> 00:23:59,800
If only I got it.
464
00:23:59,900 --> 00:24:00,480
Yes, of course.
465
00:24:00,700 --> 00:24:02,640
If only you got it, but you didn't get it.
466
00:24:03,820 --> 00:24:05,180
And then there's a moment silence.
467
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:10,000
And they say, Tom, do you think it'll
carry on?
468
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,780
And you know at this point, they either
want to get on board down here with the
469
00:24:13,781 --> 00:24:16,960
momentum or they want to fade it because
they miss the original drive.
470
00:24:17,410 --> 00:24:20,370
And I know at that point that they're
almost certainly going to get fucked.
471
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:21,400
You know, it's sod's law.
472
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,626
Fade a strong trend there, you're going to
get carted.
473
00:24:23,650 --> 00:24:26,900
If you sell it, it's going to squeeze just
enough to take you out.
474
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:33,260
But I know as well that when
people that are supposed to know
475
00:24:33,261 --> 00:24:35,080
their edge are asking me what
to do, I really know their fucked.
476
00:24:35,710 --> 00:24:40,560
But going off on a slight tangent here,
I know a guy who tries to fade everything.
477
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:42,080
And that's fine.
478
00:24:42,260 --> 00:24:45,406
I mean, I think you guys
saw in the last webinar when
479
00:24:45,430 --> 00:24:46,820
I went over the stats that
were sent to me by my...
480
00:24:46,821 --> 00:24:50,780
Prop firm, we get 22 page booker stats
every month and all our trades.
481
00:24:50,940 --> 00:24:54,200
And as I was showing you guys,
I make all my money fading.
482
00:24:54,360 --> 00:24:57,020
The minute I go with the trend,
I get fucked, which is quite weird,
483
00:24:57,145 --> 00:24:59,025
because it goes against what everybody's
taught.
484
00:24:59,145 --> 00:25:01,416
But anyway, that's just me and it might
not work for everyone.
485
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:05,801
But this guy that I'm talking about,
he tries to fade everything, bit like I do.
486
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,980
But he tries to fade everything,
calling it an overreaction.
487
00:25:09,660 --> 00:25:10,900
Sometimes that's going to work.
488
00:25:11,100 --> 00:25:14,620
But like the other day, NFP comes out
massively out of line.
489
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:16,520
Euro dollar starts tanking.
490
00:25:17,180 --> 00:25:20,640
And the market slumps and he's straight on
the fucking bid trying to buy it up and
491
00:25:20,641 --> 00:25:24,501
he's getting host and he's going...
I've got to buy it here, it's overreacting.
492
00:25:25,360 --> 00:25:28,900
And I say to him, well, what was the
figure for NFP?
493
00:25:30,260 --> 00:25:31,260
And he doesn't know.
494
00:25:32,230 --> 00:25:33,630
He doesn't know what the figure is.
495
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,440
Now, you might be sitting there thinking,
is that a massive problem?
496
00:25:37,441 --> 00:25:39,320
You know, we trade the price action.
497
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,280
I don't know what the NFP figure is you
might be thinking.
498
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:43,440
That's fine.
499
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:48,420
But how can you say the market's overreacting
if you don't know what the figure is?
500
00:25:48,421 --> 00:25:50,760
This is literally so fucking stupid.
501
00:25:51,250 --> 00:25:52,890
I couldn't even believe what I'm hearing.
502
00:25:53,220 --> 00:25:55,080
How in the name of Christ the Carpenter?
503
00:25:55,540 --> 00:25:57,300
Can you tell if it's overreacting?
504
00:25:57,530 --> 00:25:59,290
You don't know what it's fucking reacting
to.
505
00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:00,800
Imagine it like this, right?
506
00:26:00,900 --> 00:26:05,060
If you saw a man
screaming and crying in the
507
00:26:05,061 --> 00:26:05,780
street, would you just
go eyes overreacting?
508
00:26:05,781 --> 00:26:09,340
Or would you say, I wonder what he's
screaming and crying about?
509
00:26:09,580 --> 00:26:11,980
Oh, his entire family just been wiped out
in a plane crash.
510
00:26:12,100 --> 00:26:12,760
Yeah, that makes sense.
511
00:26:12,860 --> 00:26:14,140
I'd be screaming and crying too.
512
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,280
Or, oh, his bag just split and he spilt
his fucking baked beans on the floor.
513
00:26:18,380 --> 00:26:19,540
I was bit of an overreaction.
514
00:26:19,780 --> 00:26:21,196
And so it just doesn't make sense to me.
515
00:26:21,220 --> 00:26:24,220
It doesn't make sense to be fading
everything, calling it an overreaction
516
00:26:24,221 --> 00:26:26,540
when you don't know what the market's
reacting to.
517
00:26:29,155 --> 00:26:31,340
Number three, trading your plan.
518
00:26:32,155 --> 00:26:33,940
God, we're all guilty of this.
519
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:36,700
So a level might break.
520
00:26:37,710 --> 00:26:40,780
Your plan for the day, short this level if
it retests.
521
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,360
But it doesn't retest, does it?
522
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:44,940
And the market's moving down.
523
00:26:45,660 --> 00:26:47,300
And it's about 11 a.m.
524
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,260
You want to get some trades on, moves
to a new low here, train continuation.
525
00:26:50,261 --> 00:26:51,261
526
00:26:51,750 --> 00:26:53,380
Short as we break the new low.
527
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:54,140
Why not?
528
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:54,660
No.
529
00:26:55,260 --> 00:26:56,900
Fucking market goes straight back up.
530
00:26:57,500 --> 00:26:59,240
And you get your first stop out of the
day.
531
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,976
Starts to break long here and you think,
right, it's coming back to my level.
532
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,220
I'm prepared to sell that.
533
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:05,576
I'll be able to make my money back.
534
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,320
But is this an inverse head and shoulders
here?
535
00:27:09,940 --> 00:27:12,380
I reckon I might be able to get long here
and make some money.
536
00:27:12,700 --> 00:27:15,820
Oh no, it plunges to a new low and you get
fucking stopped out again.
537
00:27:16,140 --> 00:27:17,260
Now you're down two for two.
538
00:27:17,770 --> 00:27:20,540
Okay, then the market moves to a third
low.
539
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:22,780
Down through triple bottom support here.
540
00:27:22,940 --> 00:27:23,680
It's got to go now.
541
00:27:23,820 --> 00:27:25,820
It's definitely not coming back to test
this level.
542
00:27:25,860 --> 00:27:28,880
So they give it a short and immediately
off side we go.
543
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,860
And it goes absolutely fucking parabolic
into the level.
544
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:36,480
And at this point,
invariably, absolutely
545
00:27:36,481 --> 00:27:38,180
invariably, because I
speak to people all day long.
546
00:27:38,630 --> 00:27:40,820
The person in question will go,
fuck this man.
547
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:42,560
I'm not trading anymore today.
548
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:44,040
I've done my fucking ass.
549
00:27:44,370 --> 00:27:45,540
I lost three trades.
550
00:27:46,100 --> 00:27:48,620
I completely did the wrong thing at the
wrong time.
551
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,280
I got to conserve capital.
552
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,080
And I'm just nervous, man.
553
00:27:52,140 --> 00:27:54,500
I don't want four losers and they stand
out the way.
554
00:27:55,340 --> 00:27:58,740
I mean, you don't need me to tell you what
happens next because that's what happens next.
555
00:27:58,741 --> 00:27:59,741
556
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,880
So I make this joke on Twitter sometimes
that if you want some entertainment,
557
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:12,920
ask a new trader what their
plan is at the beginning of the day,
558
00:28:12,921 --> 00:28:14,780
then at the end of the day,
ask them what they actually did.
559
00:28:15,170 --> 00:28:16,570
You'll piss yourself with laughter.
560
00:28:17,060 --> 00:28:20,380
It's really sad, but you'll piss yourself
with laughter because they'll have a plan.
561
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,160
And sometimes you'll get a
trader that's relatively new, and
562
00:28:24,161 --> 00:28:25,860
maybe he's not that great,
but he'll have a fairly good plan.
563
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:26,640
He's sat down.
564
00:28:26,780 --> 00:28:28,740
He's made it when he's emotionalist in the
market.
565
00:28:28,790 --> 00:28:30,230
It's been very quiet in the morning.
566
00:28:30,270 --> 00:28:32,460
He's got a decent plan of where he wants
to interact.
567
00:28:32,860 --> 00:28:36,360
If you think he can stick to that fucking
plan, you've got another thing coming.
568
00:28:37,110 --> 00:28:41,180
You know, and like I said,
you get to the end of the day,
569
00:28:41,181 --> 00:28:42,900
seriously, you feel like some
entertainment, asking what he did.
570
00:28:43,550 --> 00:28:45,070
There's no way the trade did his plan.
571
00:28:45,300 --> 00:28:46,300
That's for sure.
572
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,200
And if you ended up making money on the
day, it'll have been very lucky.
573
00:28:52,970 --> 00:28:57,660
So I'll give you four things to remember
when you trade.
574
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,420
These are not the only four things you
need to remember, but there I think four
575
00:29:02,270 --> 00:29:03,340
pretty important things.
576
00:29:03,341 --> 00:29:08,060
You will have heard me talk about all of
them before, and you'll probably be bored
577
00:29:08,460 --> 00:29:12,060
with some of the rants I've had about
these things before, but hey, the reason
578
00:29:12,061 --> 00:29:16,260
I'm coming back here every week to rant is
because people don't fucking listen.
579
00:29:16,650 --> 00:29:18,460
I can sit here and rant till I'm blue in
the face.
580
00:29:18,461 --> 00:29:23,360
I'm going to get a handful
of emails next week, with
581
00:29:23,361 --> 00:29:24,361
people saying these
things that I'm ranting about.
582
00:29:24,940 --> 00:29:28,220
So, these are the four things.
583
00:29:31,010 --> 00:29:37,520
Number one, there is no such thing as a
fucking free trade.
584
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:39,260
I can't bear it, guys.
585
00:29:39,585 --> 00:29:41,500
I can't bear seeing people say this.
586
00:29:41,820 --> 00:29:43,440
I think I will literally shoot myself.
587
00:29:43,740 --> 00:29:48,140
If another bell end tells me that they're
plus 100 on a trade, looking for 20 ticks,
588
00:29:48,475 --> 00:29:50,920
and it's therefore a free trade because
they're at break even.
589
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:52,200
No, cunt.
590
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:53,500
You are plus 100.
591
00:29:53,980 --> 00:29:57,480
And if it comes back on you, you've just
lost 100 ticks.
592
00:29:57,980 --> 00:30:00,100
You haven't got a free trade.
593
00:30:02,220 --> 00:30:06,440
How can I tell that even
the trader that is doing this
594
00:30:06,441 --> 00:30:07,980
knows that they're being
dense, but they won't accept it.
595
00:30:08,100 --> 00:30:10,060
I'll tell you a simple test.
596
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:16,640
Wait for a trader to
say, hey man, I'm rp80
597
00:30:16,641 --> 00:30:17,641
ticks, and I'm just looking
for my 100 tick move.
598
00:30:17,820 --> 00:30:20,300
I only got 20 ticks to go, and I'm break
even.
599
00:30:20,700 --> 00:30:24,140
Okay, I can't lose now, so I'm just going
to let this trade go.
600
00:30:25,860 --> 00:30:26,940
Right, that's fine.
601
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,516
And you'll tell them,
well, you're being a bit of
602
00:30:29,540 --> 00:30:30,100
a cunt there, but they'll
say, no, no, I'm not.
603
00:30:30,220 --> 00:30:31,220
It's a free trade.
604
00:30:31,260 --> 00:30:32,260
Do this.
605
00:30:33,020 --> 00:30:36,500
Just lean over their shoulder,
and close them out of the trade,
606
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,600
and then say, oh shit, I'm so sorry.
607
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:41,200
Don't worry, it's easy fixed.
608
00:30:41,510 --> 00:30:43,780
Just get back in with your original stop
and target.
609
00:30:46,285 --> 00:30:47,285
They won't do it ever.
610
00:30:47,780 --> 00:30:49,500
They will never, ever do that.
611
00:30:49,930 --> 00:30:53,660
Because when they're not in the market,
i.e., when they've had their position
612
00:30:53,661 --> 00:30:58,140
closed out, they will look
at it logically, and they will
613
00:30:58,141 --> 00:31:01,320
say, what kind of a cunt would
now risk 80 ticks to make 20?
614
00:31:02,610 --> 00:31:03,970
Right, what kind of a cunt indeed?
615
00:31:05,210 --> 00:31:10,240
Number two, momentum does not necessarily
indicate a force.
616
00:31:10,950 --> 00:31:12,680
This is not fucking physics.
617
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:17,460
If I had a penny, every time someone
bottled a trade, because the market went
618
00:31:17,510 --> 00:31:20,160
parabolic into the level, I swear I'd
never need to trade anymore.
619
00:31:20,580 --> 00:31:24,400
People shit themselves for no
apparent reason, just because
620
00:31:24,401 --> 00:31:25,841
it's a big green candle
coming into their cell level.
621
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,160
I get it, it's a bit nerve-wracking.
622
00:31:28,260 --> 00:31:31,156
It's a bit nerve-wracking when you're new,
but as I've said so many times,
623
00:31:31,180 --> 00:31:33,740
it's the drift that you need to shit
yourself over.
624
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:38,120
If that market is just grinding up into
your level, you want to be nervous.
625
00:31:38,810 --> 00:31:42,040
But if the market's going absolutely
vertical into your level, and you know it
626
00:31:42,041 --> 00:31:46,120
is a good area to do business at,
then you need to step in front of it.
627
00:31:46,445 --> 00:31:49,240
The key there is if you know it's a good
level.
628
00:31:49,340 --> 00:31:54,000
I don't mean I as a fucking hundred-pip
green candle to the upside go balls deep
629
00:31:54,050 --> 00:31:58,060
short, but I mean if you've
committed to a good level, don't
630
00:31:58,061 --> 00:31:59,620
be scared because the
market's coming into it violently.
631
00:32:00,850 --> 00:32:02,780
Will you occasionally get steam while
doing that?
632
00:32:02,940 --> 00:32:05,300
Yes, but you've got to look at the long
term.
633
00:32:05,740 --> 00:32:10,680
And I'm telling you, I've probably lost
more money in terms of opportunity cost
634
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,700
from shitting myself and
pulling orders because
635
00:32:14,701 --> 00:32:15,701
of market volatility than
probably anything else.
636
00:32:16,010 --> 00:32:19,060
In my career, and I'm not exaggerating at
all when I say that.
637
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,340
So that's why I'm really laboring the
point.
638
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,396
And again, I see students
writing to me all the time
639
00:32:25,420 --> 00:32:26,740
saying, oh shit, you know, I
should never report that order.
640
00:32:30,270 --> 00:32:32,780
Number three, this gets me down quite a
lot.
641
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:37,900
Traders that get very excited with new
found profitability.
642
00:32:38,300 --> 00:32:40,180
They said I've been killing it for three
months.
643
00:32:41,820 --> 00:32:44,680
Actually, what's happened is that they're
profitable in a niche.
644
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:49,200
So what I mean by that is they've been
selling the Euro dollar with no stop.
645
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:53,640
Euro dollar's been in a
fucking massive downtrend
646
00:32:53,641 --> 00:32:54,100
and hemorrhaging every
day for three months.
647
00:32:54,505 --> 00:32:58,320
That's why they've been making money,
but they've confused that with the fact
648
00:32:58,420 --> 00:33:01,480
that they now think they're
a profitable trader because
649
00:33:01,481 --> 00:33:03,760
they're successfully trading
a downward trending market.
650
00:33:05,570 --> 00:33:09,540
To make it in this game,
you need to be able
651
00:33:09,541 --> 00:33:09,960
to trade in all different
market conditions.
652
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,700
That's why I usually say to people, don't
worry about how many trades you've done.
653
00:33:12,701 --> 00:33:12,840
654
00:33:13,180 --> 00:33:15,780
People say, I've done 50 trades,
Tom, and I'm ahead.
655
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:17,240
Does that mean I'm a
ledge? No, it doesn't.
656
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:18,800
657
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:23,600
Personally, if I was going to back you
with my capital, I'd rather see 30 trades
658
00:33:24,150 --> 00:33:29,060
over six months than 50 trades over three
weeks.
659
00:33:29,061 --> 00:33:32,380
Because it is about different conditions.
660
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:36,400
I'd like to know that you can hold your
own in a trending market, in a sideways
661
00:33:36,401 --> 00:33:41,420
market, in a low volatility market,
in a high volatility market, in a market
662
00:33:41,421 --> 00:33:45,720
with big outlier events, like Brexit,
like the Euro Swiss floor going,
663
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:52,360
like a flash crash, something
very, very big, a range where
664
00:33:52,361 --> 00:33:54,140
we do 4 ATR in a day and
that you're not fucking insolven.
665
00:33:56,770 --> 00:34:01,000
There's nothing wrong with only being able
to trade one type of market.
666
00:34:01,765 --> 00:34:06,420
So you might be someone that's great in a
trend and you do your arsonist sideways market.
667
00:34:06,421 --> 00:34:06,880
668
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,640
It's better if you can trade all types of
markets because the market transitions.
669
00:34:11,300 --> 00:34:16,260
But if you can trade
one type, that's fine if
670
00:34:16,310 --> 00:34:17,740
and I mean if you can
sit on your fucking hands.
671
00:34:18,230 --> 00:34:19,800
Okay, it's no good if you can't.
672
00:34:19,930 --> 00:34:23,880
If you're a trend trader, you need to be
able to step up during the trend and then
673
00:34:23,881 --> 00:34:29,240
be able to recognize this is not a trend,
I don't have an edge, I'm not trading now,
674
00:34:29,340 --> 00:34:31,260
I'm going to do my arsonist, most people
can't.
675
00:34:31,660 --> 00:34:34,060
Don't get me wrong, if you're a trend
trader, you're going to give back some money.
676
00:34:34,061 --> 00:34:34,400
677
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,600
As you realize, hold on a minute shit,
we're not in a trending market anymore.
678
00:34:38,780 --> 00:34:43,500
But if you can basically sit on your hands
when you know the market is not conducive
679
00:34:43,650 --> 00:34:46,440
to what you do, then this is very good for
you.
680
00:34:47,270 --> 00:34:50,600
You find your niche over
time, but once you know your
681
00:34:50,601 --> 00:34:52,100
niche, you want to make
sure that you play it out.
682
00:34:53,940 --> 00:34:56,000
Number four, and the final point.
683
00:34:57,420 --> 00:34:59,846
You are gambling for a
living, don't listen to anyone
684
00:34:59,870 --> 00:35:01,271
that says you're not, you
are gambling for a living.
685
00:35:02,910 --> 00:35:07,100
I do get trolled, occasionally on Twitter,
I got trolled relatively recently by
686
00:35:07,101 --> 00:35:11,320
somebody that said, no sorry,
sorry Dante, we're not gambling
687
00:35:11,321 --> 00:35:12,761
for a living actually because
there's no edge in gambling.
688
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,480
Yeah, there is an edge in gambling.
689
00:35:16,740 --> 00:35:19,360
If you have an edge, then you have
something that works over time,
690
00:35:19,500 --> 00:35:24,160
but since the outcome of
a trade of even a string of
691
00:35:24,161 --> 00:35:25,460
trades is unknown, then I
consider it to be gambling.
692
00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:30,820
So I would say to people that are trying
to get into this game, try to come from a
693
00:35:30,821 --> 00:35:35,960
position of strength, try to stack the
odds in your favor, make sure that you've
694
00:35:35,961 --> 00:35:39,680
got time to commit to this game,
make sure that you've got money,
695
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,440
make sure you're not fucking studying for
something important in your life,
696
00:35:43,441 --> 00:35:46,820
I had that rant on
periscope the other day
697
00:35:46,821 --> 00:35:47,821
about students, you
know what I had that rant?
698
00:35:50,070 --> 00:35:53,440
Because of that, that's why I had that
rant.
699
00:35:54,300 --> 00:35:59,240
I get irritated with things like this,
university, it's the answer to nothing,
700
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,460
it's the answer to fucking nothing when
you're selling courses to students,
701
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:04,160
that's for sure.
702
00:36:04,810 --> 00:36:06,840
Don't get me wrong, okay, don't get me
wrong.
703
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,920
I agree that having a degree is not the
answer to everything.
704
00:36:11,180 --> 00:36:15,440
I know people that have been to Oxford
University, and they have got firsts that
705
00:36:15,441 --> 00:36:19,640
are now working in a
fucking coffee shop, earning
706
00:36:19,641 --> 00:36:20,640
seven pounds an hour,
but that's besides the point.
707
00:36:20,641 --> 00:36:23,820
University is not just about a piece of
paper, it's about a life experience,
708
00:36:24,470 --> 00:36:28,480
learning time management, learning to work
independently, surviving, moving out at
709
00:36:28,481 --> 00:36:32,720
home, having an amazing social life,
and getting a degree is not guaranteed to
710
00:36:32,721 --> 00:36:36,040
help you, but it will never fucking hinder
you, that is for sure.
711
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:41,200
I haven't heard anyone that has had a
degree ever go, oh fucking hell,
712
00:36:41,300 --> 00:36:43,020
I wish I never bothered getting this
degree.
713
00:36:44,410 --> 00:36:49,760
So if you're a student, please,
please, please, I'll say this one final
714
00:36:49,761 --> 00:36:54,420
time, don't write to me, and
tell me that you want to get
715
00:36:54,421 --> 00:36:55,821
into trading, you're going to
do your ask with all likelihood.
716
00:36:56,260 --> 00:36:59,440
And I say this, and it came to the
forefront, because I got an email from
717
00:36:59,441 --> 00:37:03,220
someone not long ago, that literally
sounded like they were about to top
718
00:37:03,470 --> 00:37:06,820
themselves, and they were saying that they
had spunked their entire student loan.
719
00:37:07,270 --> 00:37:11,300
They brought an extra 30 grand off their
parents and lost all of that, they were so
720
00:37:11,301 --> 00:37:14,600
debilitated and stressed over losing the
money that they couldn't concentrate on
721
00:37:14,601 --> 00:37:17,401
their lessons anymore, and their whole
life was going down the shitter.
722
00:37:19,510 --> 00:37:23,040
And I basically think that,
you know, that's trading
723
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,100
for a lot of the time, it's
an all-consuming focus.
724
00:37:26,740 --> 00:37:29,660
If I've been trading whilst having my
degree, I've completely done my ask.
725
00:37:30,050 --> 00:37:34,020
I was trading whilst having
a full-time job, and let me
726
00:37:34,021 --> 00:37:35,221
tell you, I didn't do my
work particularly effectively.
727
00:37:38,460 --> 00:37:43,080
So, I just think that if you want to get
into this game, then you want to come into
728
00:37:43,081 --> 00:37:46,420
it when you're a little bit more stable,
when you're not studying for something,
729
00:37:46,720 --> 00:37:49,596
when you've got a little
bit of money behind you,
730
00:37:49,620 --> 00:37:50,620
when you've got some free
time to be able to sit down.
731
00:37:52,580 --> 00:37:55,620
What you're saying, Eric, about going into
any business is gambling.
732
00:37:55,820 --> 00:37:58,060
Well, I do believe it is in a way.
733
00:37:58,420 --> 00:38:02,580
I mean, casinos are gambling,
but you don't see many fucking
734
00:38:02,581 --> 00:38:03,960
casinos go out of business,
but they're definitely gambling.
735
00:38:03,961 --> 00:38:08,441
You or I walk into a casino tonight and
walk out with money, they've done their ask.
736
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:13,180
So, if you've got an edge, then you can
take money at the table over time,
737
00:38:13,230 --> 00:38:16,310
but I personally see it as a gamble,
and I'm always surprised that some people
738
00:38:16,355 --> 00:38:18,260
don't, but I think it's because it's taboo
word.
739
00:38:18,380 --> 00:38:20,780
People don't like to think their career is
based on a gamble.
740
00:38:21,900 --> 00:38:22,900
I think it is.
741
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:28,920
Anyway, ledges, that's
my rant for the evening,
742
00:38:28,921 --> 00:38:29,160
and next week we'll
get onto some charts.
743
00:38:29,161 --> 00:38:34,200
But, like I said at the
beginning, really, these
744
00:38:34,201 --> 00:38:35,201
are the things that will
make you profitable.
745
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,320
I see these mistakes time and time again,
which is why I flagged them all up.
746
00:38:39,035 --> 00:38:42,240
And, ultimately, me looking at a chart of
the euro dollar tonight, and saying,
747
00:38:42,241 --> 00:38:44,900
hey guys, I'm going to buy it here, and I'm
going to put my stock there and my target.
748
00:38:44,901 --> 00:38:45,220
749
00:38:45,340 --> 00:38:47,396
There doesn't really mean shit at the end
of the day.
750
00:38:47,420 --> 00:38:49,820
It might be a winner, it might be a
fucking loser, who knows?
751
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,380
You wouldn't know
unless you followed me for
752
00:38:52,381 --> 00:38:52,700
six months, whether
I've got an edge or not.
753
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:54,340
But it's the execution.
754
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,960
It's how you handle yourself that makes
all the difference.
755
00:38:57,985 --> 00:39:00,145
It's not whether you call one fucking
trade that works.
756
00:39:01,990 --> 00:39:06,981
So, I'm going to leave it there for tonight,
and I'm sorry if I offended anybody.
757
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,180
Hopefully I haven't, you never know,
probably get a barrage of emails now.
758
00:39:13,850 --> 00:39:17,800
But yeah, thank you very much for coming,
and next week we will go through some charts.
759
00:39:17,801 --> 00:39:18,801
760
00:39:19,060 --> 00:39:21,100
But cheers, ledges, we'll speak again
soon.
70216
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