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Yes, Avdiivka has been abandoned. There's
nothing to be done, the threat of encirclement,
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people need to be saved, there's no point in
clinging to the ruins of a destroyed city.
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Two years of heavy fighting, two years
of Russia beating against its walls,
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but still broke through. Neither artillery,
nor armor, nor meat assaults, nothing helped,
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but everything was decided by guided bombs. Air
bombs weighing half a ton to a ton demolished
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the fortifications, plus a severe shortage of
shells, and the troops had to be withdrawn.
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In Russian media and in comments under
my videos there is joy, Russians as if
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they had taken Berlin again, as if there were
no tens of thousands killed and hundreds of
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units of burned equipment. A new Verdun, but
really just a suburb of Donetsk. It's bad,
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but not fatal. Given the losses, the enemy will
not be able to build on the success. The nearest
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major city is like walking to the moon. There is
a continuous agglomeration, one village passes
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into another and so to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
or Pavlohrad, depending on which way to move.
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But in general - the situation
is difficult on the whole front,
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with ammunition problem, we need to change
something. Or they will continue to crawl,
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losses do not matter to them,
even 500 thousand, even a million.
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Military historians will study the events of the
war in Ukraine, including the Battle of Avdiivka,
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and the main question they will
be interested in is: What was it?
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When storming Avdiivka, the Russian side lost
50 thousand people and about a thousand tanks
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and armored vehicles, which gives some
idea of what kind of hell was there.
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But even given the absolutely cannibalistic
nature of the Russian regime, there must be
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some sense in such losses. And there doesn't
seem to be. Say, Avdiivka would have been
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the last stronghold of the AFU and behind it the
operational space opened up, and behind it Russian
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mechanized strategic reserves were waiting
for their turn to rush into the breakthrough
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along the diverging directions. For example, to
Kyiv and the Dnipro. But nothing of the sort,
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the AFU withdrew to the next line of defense,
the Donetsk agglomeration is indeed captured,
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but next will be Kramatorsk and Sloviansk
agglomerations, and this is 10 years of
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continuous construction of fortifications. 6
major cities and several hundred settlements,
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each of which must be stormed head-on, because the
front line is relatively stable and flank bypasses
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are not expected. And they don’t know how to do
these rounds. The simple calculation shows that to
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achieve, say, Pavlohrad it is necessary to spend
another half a million people, and even more.
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Or another scenario: negotiations are about to be
held, a peace agreement is about to be concluded
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and it is necessary to capture as much as possible
in time to bargain from more favorable positions?
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But there are no negotiations or even intentions,
and who will negotiate with them about what?
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Avdiivka cost Putin and his generals
three times more than 10 years of war
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in Afghanistan or twice as much as the two
Chechen wars combined. And this is despite the
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fact that at the most critical moment the allies
essentially left Ukraine without shells and aid.
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But that will change, and soon enough. Then every
"next Avdiivka" will be twice or three times more
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expensive. And this is only the South-East
of Ukraine, and there is much more. It is
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relevant to recall the story of Bakhmut, which the
enemy also considered a "great victory", having
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spent a huge amount of reserves there and barely
squeezed the Ukrainians out of the shattered city.
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