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OSINT researchers have long analyzed Russian
resources, where obituaries of Russian military
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personnel eliminated in Ukraine have
been published since the beginning of
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the full-scale invasion. Dynamics, geography
and designation of the units led them to the
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following conclusions regarding the situation of
live force in the occupation troops in Ukraine:
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Russia managed to hide its losses quite
well in 2022, when most of the liquidated
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occupiers were contract soldiers. However,
live-force losses in the first year of a
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full-scale war were generally lower than
in 2023. The Wagner Group began employing
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recruited prisoners as early as 2022, but the
operational secrecy of mercenaries, in general,
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was higher than that of the Russian armed forces,
so their obituary losses are much worse recorded.
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From the beginning of 2023 the losses increase
dramatically. In particular - at the expense of
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the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Navy,
defeated in an attempt to attack Vuhledar,
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as well as among fighters from the
temporarily occupied territories of
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Ukraine. Russian commanders during this period
began to more actively mix experienced fighters
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with mobilized fighters, regardless of the
compatibility of the units. Subsequently,
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units from occupied territories again began
more actively participating in assaults,
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leading to a gradual wear down of both categories
– experienced militants and mobilized ones.
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As the Ukrainian offensive began, Russian
casualties again increased . Losses were recorded
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not only on the main axis of the offensive, but
also on islands on the Dnipro River and near
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Bakhmut. It is confirmed that the Russian command
drowned some of its own troops when Kakhovka Dam
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was blown up. In the southern direction, the
Russians relied more and more on replenishing
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their lost units with mobilized troops. At the
same time, their ability to move new units to this
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section of the front was limited. Near Bakhmut,
the occupiers relied even more on undertrained
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personnel to supplement the battered units.
Many of these replacements, especially those
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recruited among convicts, had only 2-3 weeks
of combat training before being sent to the
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front line. This tactic of plugging holes with
new recruits resulted in very high casualties.
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The current situation in the Russian armed forces
has deteriorated even further. The current level
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of mobilization is just about enough to keep up
the intensity of the fighting and to advance at
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an extremely slow pace little by little.
However, to achieve this, it is necessary
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to continue replenishing battered units with
poorly trained recruits. At the same time,
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some individual units created back in 2022
are still kept in reserve - no casualties
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among them have been recorded. In order to
increase the intensity of combat operations,
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the Russian command needs to launch a larger
mobilization wave like the one that took place
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in the fall of 2022 - but the Russian
leadership still does not dare to do so.
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The situation with experienced units in the
enemy's armed forces is very bad - there are
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very few of them left, but Russia has
enough manpower in the general mass.
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