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Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:01,160 --> 00:00:04,720 Many are now worried about a  somewhat apocalyptic scenario,   2 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:09,040 namely, what will happen if Ukraine  is left without Western assistance? 3 00:00:09,040 --> 00:00:14,760 In 2 years, Russia has lost its offensive  potential in the war against Ukraine. And   4 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,520 if in the beginning the enemy could conduct  a large-scale offensive along a front of   5 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:24,000 hundreds of kilometers, now the possibility  has fallen to the level of kilometers. 6 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,040 Even with the reduced combat effectiveness of   7 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:30,320 Ukraine's defense forces, Russia's  qualitative indicators won't change,   8 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:35,760 and they won't allow them to advance into  Ukrainian territory as quickly as two years ago. 9 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:40,800 Currently, the enemy is attacking mainly with  infantry forces due to the lack of equipment   10 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:46,360 and its endemic shortfall. If the Ukrainian  army does not have support from its allies,   11 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,800 the number of artillery shots  per day will drop to 1,000 or   12 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:54,920 less. Own ammunition production will help  maintain this level, but not enough for all   13 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:59,920 the artillery needs in defense. This could  give Russian forces an offensive advantage. 14 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:05,920 In 2023, Ukraine has accumulated enough  different weapons that have not been used   15 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:12,280 on the battlefield. We are talking about  Javelin, anti-tank NLAW and others. All   16 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:16,880 these means have been supplanted by various  drones, which have become a curse for Russian   17 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:22,360 equipment. Nevertheless, the stockpiles of  accumulated means will create problems for   18 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:28,040 the enemy's armored vehicles, even if the  concentration of artillery fire is reduced. 19 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:32,880 However, the defense potential of the  Ukrainian side is expected to decrease.   20 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:38,040 The main strongholds will not be defense  lines, but natural obstacles: rivers,   21 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:42,840 lakes, controlled heights,  forests, and settlements. 22 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,480 The Russian command will continue to  strive, first of all, to reach the   23 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:50,560 administrative borders of Luhansk and  Donetsk regions, as well as to develop   24 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:55,800 the offensive in Kharkiv region and with the  prospect of entering Dnipropetrovsk region. 25 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,760 The Russians' exit to the right  bank of the Kherson region under   26 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:03,480 such conditions is unlikely, but the AFU  bridgehead on the left bank will be left. 27 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:08,280 In Zaporizhzhya Oblast, the controlled  zone in the Verbove and Robotyne area,   28 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:13,840 achieved as a result of the summer offensive, will  be lost. This may encourage the Russians to take   29 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:19,360 more active steps in this area. Nevertheless,  they will not have enough resources to reach   30 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:24,360 Zaporizhzhya, given the defense lines  and boundaries formed in the region. 31 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:28,840 Lack of assistance from international partners  will have an extremely negative impact on the   32 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:33,440 situation in the war zone and within a year  Ukraine will lose a number of territories in   33 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,920 the east and south of the country. This  may strengthen Russia's position in the   34 00:02:37,920 --> 00:02:42,520 geopolitical arena, and Moscow will launch  an unprecedented campaign to force Ukraine   35 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:46,960 to negotiate on Russian terms against the  backdrop of the advance of its troops. 36 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,640 In fact, the lack of assistance from  partners will deprive Ukraine of the   37 00:02:50,640 --> 00:02:55,400 ability to build forces for counter-offensive  operations, and defense will be less reliable   38 00:02:55,400 --> 00:03:01,480 due to the lack of a full range of necessary  means. In turn, due to endless meat waves,   39 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:05,320 the enemy will suffer consistently high  losses, which will force them to conduct   40 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:10,720 regular regrouping and re-staffing of units, which  will also affect the pace of their advance, which,   41 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:16,320 if we are talking about plans to capture the  entire left bank, may take more than one year. 42 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:20,960 But this scenario is possible only in the  complete absence of assistance from the West,   43 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,040 and this is an incredible option  that does not correspond to the   44 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:28,600 state interests of both the United  States and the European Union. 45 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:29,738 Happy New Year ! 5522

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