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Many are now worried about a
somewhat apocalyptic scenario,
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namely, what will happen if Ukraine
is left without Western assistance?
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In 2 years, Russia has lost its offensive
potential in the war against Ukraine. And
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if in the beginning the enemy could conduct
a large-scale offensive along a front of
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hundreds of kilometers, now the possibility
has fallen to the level of kilometers.
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Even with the reduced combat effectiveness of
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Ukraine's defense forces, Russia's
qualitative indicators won't change,
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and they won't allow them to advance into
Ukrainian territory as quickly as two years ago.
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Currently, the enemy is attacking mainly with
infantry forces due to the lack of equipment
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and its endemic shortfall. If the Ukrainian
army does not have support from its allies,
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the number of artillery shots
per day will drop to 1,000 or
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less. Own ammunition production will help
maintain this level, but not enough for all
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the artillery needs in defense. This could
give Russian forces an offensive advantage.
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In 2023, Ukraine has accumulated enough
different weapons that have not been used
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on the battlefield. We are talking about
Javelin, anti-tank NLAW and others. All
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these means have been supplanted by various
drones, which have become a curse for Russian
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equipment. Nevertheless, the stockpiles of
accumulated means will create problems for
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the enemy's armored vehicles, even if the
concentration of artillery fire is reduced.
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However, the defense potential of the
Ukrainian side is expected to decrease.
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The main strongholds will not be defense
lines, but natural obstacles: rivers,
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lakes, controlled heights,
forests, and settlements.
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The Russian command will continue to
strive, first of all, to reach the
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administrative borders of Luhansk and
Donetsk regions, as well as to develop
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the offensive in Kharkiv region and with the
prospect of entering Dnipropetrovsk region.
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The Russians' exit to the right
bank of the Kherson region under
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such conditions is unlikely, but the AFU
bridgehead on the left bank will be left.
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In Zaporizhzhya Oblast, the controlled
zone in the Verbove and Robotyne area,
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achieved as a result of the summer offensive, will
be lost. This may encourage the Russians to take
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more active steps in this area. Nevertheless,
they will not have enough resources to reach
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Zaporizhzhya, given the defense lines
and boundaries formed in the region.
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Lack of assistance from international partners
will have an extremely negative impact on the
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situation in the war zone and within a year
Ukraine will lose a number of territories in
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the east and south of the country. This
may strengthen Russia's position in the
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geopolitical arena, and Moscow will launch
an unprecedented campaign to force Ukraine
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to negotiate on Russian terms against the
backdrop of the advance of its troops.
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In fact, the lack of assistance from
partners will deprive Ukraine of the
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ability to build forces for counter-offensive
operations, and defense will be less reliable
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due to the lack of a full range of necessary
means. In turn, due to endless meat waves,
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the enemy will suffer consistently high
losses, which will force them to conduct
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regular regrouping and re-staffing of units, which
will also affect the pace of their advance, which,
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if we are talking about plans to capture the
entire left bank, may take more than one year.
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But this scenario is possible only in the
complete absence of assistance from the West,
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and this is an incredible option
that does not correspond to the
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state interests of both the United
States and the European Union.
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Happy New Year !
5522
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