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For Russia, Crimea has always been problematic
in defense and supply issues, and this was
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especially evident during the full-scale invasion
of Ukraine.
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But for the Russian leadership, the seized
peninsula was an element of reputation.
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A demonstration that Moscow could afford to
seize what it considered its own.
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Things changed dramatically in 2022, when
Crimea became the main logistical hub for
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the invasion of mainland Ukraine and a base
for Russian occupation troops.
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Great expectations were placed on it, but
the outcome was disappointment and a strategic
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deadlock.
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The Black Sea Fleet was supposed to play no
less important a role in the occupation of
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mainland Ukraine than the ground forces and
aviation component.
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But gradually the fleet lost its dominance
in the Black Sea, suffered losses, was driven
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away from Ukrainian waters, and at one point
began to burn in a spectacular and sparkling
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fashion.
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As a result, for almost two years the Black
Sea Fleet not only failed to show any effectiveness,
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but at the end of 2023 it was expelled from
the peninsula, and any call of its ships to
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the port may end with their total destruction....
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One of the real reasons for the occupation
of Crimea in 2014 was Russia's desire to dominate
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the Black Sea, and it was willing to make
any losses to maintain that dominance.
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However, it was ephemeral and dissipated as
soon as Russia entered into full-scale confrontation
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with a country that essentially had no fleet.
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Now Russia has no navy, only a flotilla.
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For Russia, it was a priority after the occupation
of Crimea to link it with the mainland territory
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by a bridge.
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This logistics was to simplify primarily military
transport.
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As a result of the strikes on the bridge,
logistics through Crimea proved unreliable,
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and in the second half of 2023 there were
attempts by the occupiers to start construction
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of a railroad on the Ukrainian mainland, which
only confirmed the enemy's lack of confidence
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in the future of the Kerch Bridge.
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To strengthen the security of airfields and
other facilities on the peninsula, the Russian
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occupation forces began to concentrate more
and more air defense equipment.
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Today, the peninsula has an echeloned air
defense system, which is the second densest
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after Moscow.
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But this sometimes even simplifies the tasks
for the Ukrainian Defense Forces to destroy
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the occupants' expensive air defense systems.
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In 2024, the story of the Black Sea Flotilla's
escape from Crimea to Novorossiysk may repeat
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itself for aviation, which Russian troops
will be forced to withdraw to Russian territory
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in order to protect from total destruction.
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For the Russian occupiers, Crimea was supposed
to be a bulwark and support in their occupation
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of all of southern Ukraine, but it has turned
into a burden that causes more problems and
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losses than profit.
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At some point, holding Crimea will become
even more problematic for the enemy than,
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for example, the right bank of the Kherson
region.
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The only difficulty is that for the Russian
command, Crimea is a matter of reputation
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and principle.
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Even when it protrudes as a bleeding bone
from the throat of the occupation regime,
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it will not be spat out, continuing to endure
the pain.
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Perhaps this is what will ultimately break
the regime.
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