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The completely destroyed town of
Marinka has been lost and the last
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groups of Ukrainian defense forces
have withdrawn to prepared lines.
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Right now, the situation is becoming
critical on the outskirts of neighboring
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Novomikhailovka. Abandoning this
village is a highly undesirable step,
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but unfortunately it is only a matter of
time before this decision has to be made.
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The main events in the future will
unfold on the Marinka-Vuhledar highway,
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including the activation of the
enemy in the Vuhledar direction.
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The stubborn desire of the Russian command to take
control at any cost of the Marinka ruins, which
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Russian troops have been storming for more than a
year and a half, was due not only to the desire to
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"report a great victory", but also to utilitarian
operational and tactical considerations.
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Here's the thing: the Ukrainian bridgehead,
located east of the Marinka - Vuhledar road,
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had long been a bone in the throat. In
fact, it was a convenient "launching
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pad" for possible active actions of the
AFU towards Volnovakha and Mariupol.
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In addition, the presence of this
bridgehead allows the AFU to exercise
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fairly tight fire control over the
railroad that leads to Volnovakha
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from the north and further west. This
railroad "branch line" could potentially
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play an important role for the enemy's
"Zaporizhia" and "East" troop groups.
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But as long as this Ukrainian bridgehead exists,
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the use of the railroad in
significant amounts is complicated.
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I think, based mainly on these two considerations,
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the Russian command is trying to
realize a certain plan to eliminate it.
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What is the essence of this plan?
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Stage one is to take control of the Marinka area.
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Stage two - to concentrate and deploy forces
in Marinka, to carry out assault operations in
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the direction of the village of Pobeda. At the
same time, begin an offensive towards Vodiane.
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Stage three - counter-offensive of two
flank attack tactical groups of the enemy,
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in order to simultaneously reach the
boundary Antonivka - Kostiantynivka.
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This is if briefly and maximally schematic.
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In reality, the situation in this
area developed and is developing,
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to put it mildly, a little "in a different way".
About a month and a half or two months ago,
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the enemy tried to attack from the south for
a week. However, these attacks ended in vain.
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The same happened on the northern flank
- the "liberation of Marinka was slightly
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delayed." Thus, the possibility of
organizing a full-fledged offensive
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towards the village of Pobeda
from that side was also delayed.
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And soon the "Avdiivka operation" and a number
of other Russian winter "activities" began,
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so the Russian command could
not attract significant forces.
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This clearly triggered a revision of
the meaning and content of the enemy
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plan to solve the "Vuhledar protrusion problem".
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And the enemy command organized for
several weeks active offensive actions
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on Novomykhailivka. At the moment, the enemy has
managed to break through close to the village.
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As for further prospects in this area:
- Obviously, we should expect an "assault"
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on Novomykhailivka in the near future.
- Also the enemy will continue its
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attempts to break through from the north
to the south, towards Konstantynivka.
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But the Ukrainian defense forces
are already ready to meet them.
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