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It is very hot now on the Kupiansk
direction, but should we panic?
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After the Russian troops completed
the regrouping of the units of the
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"West" troop group responsible for this
location and reinforced the units of the
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79th motorized rifle and 11th tank
regiments in the Kupiansk direction,
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the process of increased pressure on the
positions of the Ukrainian defense forces began.
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The total number of the grouping of troops
"West" today is about 65 thousand personnel,
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but how much of the equipment corresponds
to the possibilities of offensive actions ?
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There are 700 tanks instead of 890, just
over 1 thousand Armoured fighting vehicles
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instead of 2,670; 650 barrel artillery
instead of 970 and MLRS - 200 units;
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As we can see, this is not the worst
understaffing among all enemy occupation
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groups. But it still limits the ability
to effectively break through the AFU's
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defense lines and advance deep into the
territories. This factor explains why,
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having launched the Lyman-Kupiansk axis offensive
at the end of May and the beginning of June,
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the Russians have not achieved any
significant result for six months.
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At the same time, since October they have
been sending the most combat-ready resources
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to Avdiivka from the "Center" group of
troops, which suggests that if Russian
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troops are unable to encircle and capture
Avdiivka before the New Year, then after the
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New Year they will have to pull resources
from other groups of troops. For example,
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from the Kupiansk direction, because the
Russian command does not have many options.
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Briefly on the situation on the left bank.
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The enemy units, which tried to displace the
Ukrainian defense forces southwest of Krynky,
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had a mass annihilation of personnel and
equipment. The enemy command still cannot
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find an optimal solution to the problem of the
left bank, where the AFU control is expanding. And
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while everyone's attention is focused on Krynky,
where Russian equipment is burning non-stop,
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interesting and very strange things
are taking place somewhat to the west.
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Therefore, the enemy continues to
transfer forces and means to the
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Kherson region to reinforce the Dniepr
group of troops. They are transferred at
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the expense of the resource of the groups
"Zaporizhzhya" and "Defense of Crimea".
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As of today, the group "Dniepr" exceeds
70 thousand personnel. Let me remind you
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that a little more than two weeks ago it was a
group of troops slightly more than 65 thousand.
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In addition, it has about 380 tanks, up
to a thousand Armoured fighting vehicles,
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500 artillery barrels and less than 100 MLRS.
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That is, in terms of equipment, the complement of
this group is from 30% to 40%. And if there is an
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increase in the amount of biomass, there
are no qualitative changes in equipment.
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Also, west of Oleshky, the enemy
forces took the defense. Perhaps
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this is due to those interesting and
very strange cases I mentioned earlier,
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and perhaps not, but the fact
of restless digging was noted.
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From this we can draw a simple conclusion that
the restlessness in the ranks of the command
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of the Dniepr Group is spreading, along the
greater and greater extent of the left bank.
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And it is not surprising, because practically
all those sections we mentioned above have
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extremely limited logistics, the cutting
of which is fatal for the Russian troops.
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