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The other day, a Russian Su-24M bomber was shot
down near Snake Island. A number of experts have
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already stated that the balance of forces on
the southern flank of the front has seriously
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changed in connection with this incident.
Most likely, in the course of their reasoning,
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they posit that in the Odesa region, Ukrainian
defense forces have deployed another Patriot
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anti-aircraft missile system. If it is capable of
effectively targeting objects at a distance of 140
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km and reaching Snake Island, then, operating at
its maximum range, it can also intercept aircraft
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at the point where the enemy drops guided
bombs targeting the left-bank bridgeheads.
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In general, this is a logical assumption,
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and it will work in the case that actually in
the Odesa region already deployed the said air
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defense system. But it is in this case that
the theory must be confirmed by practice.
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If it was really a Patriot near Odesa, then
bombing with aerial bombs must stop or we
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will soon learn that somewhere on the left
bank managed to shoot down another bomber.
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But there is no information yet about the
opponent ceasing the use of aerial bombs,
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as well as about any shot down
planes in the mentioned area.
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It is clear that it will take some time
to draw conclusions from the data that
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comes from the front, but for the time being the
situation remains in the 50/50 mode. Meanwhile,
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the enemy reported that yesterday
on the left bank in the direction
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of Krynky he dropped a record number of bombs.
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Nevertheless, it is on this section of the
front that the Ukrainian armed forces are doing
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something incredible and are slowly pushing the
enemy away from the Dnipro riverbed. Currently,
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the majority of Ukrainian artillery assets
remain deployed on the right bank. As a result,
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the AFU are compelled to operate within
the effective range of this artillery,
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so that it depletes the enemy forces.
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And near Avdiivka the enemy throws literally
everything into the attack and even that which
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cannot be called reserves by definition.
I once came across the revelation of one
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of the Russian commanders that the high
level of casualties does not upset anyone,
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as waves of attacks are calculated by the
timeline. They clearly understand how long
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a notional company can effectively advance
and how long it will take to be destroyed.
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At certain times, the notional company must
provide assault action for an hour while the
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second wave enters the attack line. The command
realizes that after an hour the company will no
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longer be able to attack due to the fact that
losses in killed and wounded will already be
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critical. As a unit, the company ceases to exist,
and therefore, to fulfill the assigned task. At
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this point, the next company is launched, and
the remnants of the first, retreat to the rear.
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They will be immediately manned into a new,
combined company to be sent to the next wave.
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But those who are physically unable to go into
battle are not released far away. There they
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quickly reject those who cannot go into
battle right now, after bandaging and
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injecting medications - they evacuate them to the
nearest rear, where they again try to patch them
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up quickly and return them to the front line,
even with crutches, bandages and other things.
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During the storming of Avdiivka, the
survivability of a company-like unit is
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determined by the Russian command within half an
hour to an hour and a half, but on average - an
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hour. If a company has survived an hour, it has
accomplished its task. And so day after day.
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