All language subtitles for 07-12-2023-fghfcfhgeeee

Avdiivka, I would like to talk about it
now. In general, what is happening near

Avdiivka and what are the main risks.

because this is the main task for
the Russian occupation forces. And

they use a huge resource to realize
this combat task. Whether they will

be able to realize it, there are
many factors that can affect it.

Any fortified area or any line of defense can
be breached, and this works in both directions.

Right now, the Russians have used
their main strike potential from

the amount of forces and means they
have concentrated near this city.

Namely the seizure of Avdiivka heap,
cutting of the railroad in the north,

access to Stepove, where they can't get a
stable foothold, because the AFU forces them

to withdraw from certain positions with their
counterattacks. They have also advanced in the

south in the area of the almost destroyed
industrial zone. But even in this area,

there are still clashes. That is, we
cannot say that they control it 100%.

They have used up their resources, and to talk
about further advancement with the capture of

Stepove or Sieverne, access to Tonenke
and Berdychi, they need more resources.

Do they have this resource? Yes, they do.
They can continue to pull this resource,

for example, from the Luhansk region.
But if they use these reserves and manage

to advance in the Stepove area and in the
Sieverne-Tonenke area, what will happen next?

Following this, there may be an attempt to
gain fire but not physical control over the

sole logistical artery leading to Avdiivka. The
issue lies in the fact that after this, if they

find a way to redirect additional resources for a
new wave, it could result in a physical control.

Unfortunately it's variability, either they can't
do it or they can, the scenarios can be different.

And if you analyze any situation that occurs in
a combat zone, any location, this is variability.

They are advancing, they can have both success
in the offensive and a complete fiasco.

We remember when we were told in the summer that
they were launching a large-scale offensive on the

Lyman-Kupiansk axis. That they had 100,000
troops and almost a thousand tanks. So,

if we consider this situation in terms of
the staffing and capabilities of this group,

it had no chance of a successful,
effective offensive. This is exactly

how it all ended. It's one thing when
they try to scare you with numbers,

it's quite another when you assess what
they can do on a 170-kilometer front line.

So, we should never panic, but we should always
understand that if they had concentrated all these

resources exclusively in one point, for example,
in the Kupyansk direction, and hit Kupyansk with

at least 50% of this resource, we would have had
a completely different situation. But they didn't,

they stretched the resources of their two
groups of troops from Liman to Kupyansk. And

the same is true near Avdiivka. Depending
on how they act with their resources,

we can say that Avdiivka can either stand
in 2024 or be unfortunately surrounded

before the so-called elections in Russia,
to strengthen Putin's electoral position.