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The victory in the war against Russia can be
considered only the complete liberation of the
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territories of Ukraine. But is the process of
releasing the territories a proof of victory,
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and their loss, on the contrary?
It sounds paradoxical, but no,
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and now we are entering just such a
paradoxical, at first glance, phase.
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The new phase of the war is not so much
about liberating new territories as about
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inflicting maximum damage on the enemy,
depleting his resource - with maximum
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preservation of our own forces and means.
That is, a war of attrition is beginning.
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As of today, Russians are critically
constrained in their ability to accumulate
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the technical and mechanized component,
and their military-industrial complex
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operates only to compensate for losses,
gradually slipping into the negative.
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The new phase of war and new
victories is to destroy the
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enemy in quantities that would not
allow them to recover, get stronger,
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and carry out operations not only of an
offensive but also of a defense nature.
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In his article for The Economist,
the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU,
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Valerii Zaluzhnyi, explained in the clearest
possible language why the summer offensive
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did not achieve the expected successes. It was
addressed first and foremost to the partners,
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from whom we would like to see more action
than we have seen for almost two years now.
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But still, we cannot say that the summer offensive
was not successful. It was during this period
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that we witnessed a number of records for the
destruction of armored vehicles, artillery,
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air defense, vehicles, etc. Russian troops
lost almost 150,000 personnel in manpower!
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All summer and throughout the fall, the
Russian group remained constrained in the
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Zaporizhzhya region and constantly demanded new
resources to contain the Ukrainian offensive.
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Now we can observe how the enemy
cannot block and neutralize the
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expansion of the AFU bridgehead on
the left bank of the Kherson region.
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That is, there is a result from the summer
campaign, the only thing is that it was planned
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as an offensive campaign with the liberation of
territories, and not as a campaign of exhausting
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and depleting the enemy. And, unfortunately,
this factor had its negative impact.
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The 2022 scenario no longer works, and this
changes absolutely everything in terms of the
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approach to planning subsequent operations and
reassessment of the situation at all levels.
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This does not mean that in the short term the AFU
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will not be able to attack and
will only exhaust the enemy, no.
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Yes, while the AFU will have only defense
bridgeheads and some positions and locations
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they will be forced to leave - and
this should also be taken adequately,
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without panic and depression. But there
are bridgeheads where the presence of the
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Ukrainian side may well expand, which
is gradually emerging in the future.
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The new phase of the war is not a
phase of principles and stubbornness,
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it is a phase of rationalism and endurance.
Weakening and exhaustion of the enemy to the
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stage when there will be enough forces to
deliver a crushing blow, and more than one.
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If you like, the concept of action in
the short term is not the liberation of
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as many square kilometers as possible,
but the elimination of as many invaders
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as possible and, more importantly,
the destruction of their equipment
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with maximum preservation of their
own lives and mechanized component.
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