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Is Ukraine getting enough weapons to win?
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It is no secret that Ukraine's defense
capability is currently largely dependent on
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the supply of weapons and equipment from Western
partners. This is due to a number of factors,
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but nevertheless, from time to time the
question arises: do the Ukrainian Defense
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Forces receive enough weapons to not only keep
the defense, but also to successfully attack?
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This question is being asked more and more
frequently, especially given the results of
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the summer offensive campaign, which ended
with a serious depletion of Russian forces,
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but without large-scale liberation of territory.
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In his article for The Economist,
the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU,
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Valerii Zaluzhnyi, clearly pointed out the
main points that prevented the AFU from
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achieving its objectives, namely, the lack
of sufficient means for demining, questions
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of artillery and its provision, electronic
warfare, aviation and missile components.
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And just the other day, the former commander
of the U.S. Army in Europe, Ben Hodges,
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noted that the U.S. provides Ukraine
with sufficient assistance for defense,
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but not for offensive, emphasizing that an
offensive without total support from the
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air is fatal. For example, the U.S. Army
would never conduct such an offensive.
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Meanwhile, the large-scale
liberation of territories in
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2022 took place without total air
support, but there is a nuance.
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At some point, where it was possible to play
beyond common sense, it will no longer be
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possible to repeat, and realizing this, since
2022, Ukraine has regularly sent requests for
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the provision of the weaponry that may be
needed in the short term. In particular,
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we are talking about F-16s and ATACMS
missiles. But Ukraine received ATACMS of
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M39 modification only a year later, immediately
demonstrating the highest efficiency of use.
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Within the framework of the Dragonfly
operation alone, 22 Ka-52 attack
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helicopters and 9 Mi-8 multirole helicopters
were destroyed and rendered inoperable.
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A similar question arises with regard to the
F-16s. If we follow the logic, they require:
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- 4-6 months for the additional
training of already experienced
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pilots who could operate these
fighters at a basic level;
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- preparation of the airfield
and all infrastructure,
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as well as technical personnel, for maintenance;
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- creation of an air defense dome;
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Meanwhile, instead of starting in 2022,
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this process started only in
the second half of 2023....
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The other issue is tanks. Today, the
most reliable supplier of tanks for
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Ukraine is not the United States,
Germany, or the United Kingdom,
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but Poland, which has transferred
more than 320 main battle tanks.
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No other country has transferred as many tanks
to Ukraine as Poland. The question arises,
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why? Ukrainian tank crews are the most
experienced not only in Europe, but also
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in the world. What army in the world has such a
unique experience of destruction than Ukraine?
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One gets the impression that Ukraine's
partners are trying to help win the
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war with Russia with the least costs, but
alas, this is impossible. Only a complete,
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absolute return on all positions can crush
the underimperial anachronism called Russia.
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Unfortunately, the partners have yet to fully
realize this dogma. The parallel reality of the
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abstracted West remains much more monolithic than
Ukraine's actual and critical need for victory.
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