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On the Russian side, another psychological
operation is being distributed. Allegedly,
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the Ukrainian liberation forces have begun
to liberate Horlivka and the AFU have made
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progress on the western outskirts of the city,
which has been under enemy control since 2016.
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I am of course with both hands "in favor",
but the theses spread by enemy propagandists
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have nothing to do with reality at all.
The aim of these Info-Psy Ops is to offer
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hope and later induce disappointment
when those hopes are not realized.
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The occupiers are trying to pass off local
tactical battles on the outskirts of the city,
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which have been going on there for almost 10
years, as a combined-arms offensive operation.
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Do you have any idea what kind of effort
it takes to liberate this huge city?
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After all, Horlivka is the 4th largest
city in Ukraine by area - 422 square
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kilometers! This is 20% more than the Gaza Strip.
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Several important highways pass through
or near the city. Including the M-03 as
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the main supply arm for the
occupiers from the Russia.
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Yes, the AFU are close, but this direction is
reliably covered by a network of terricons.
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And this means that it is necessary to
storm head-on, and no one will do that.
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To accomplish this task it is necessary to
free everything from Kreminna to Debaltseve.
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Including Bakhmut, Svitlodarsk, Vuhlehirsk. This
is a front several hundred kilometers wide, 15
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to 70 kilometers deep. This operation will be at
the level of the potential liberation of Crimea.
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In order to liberate the city, it is necessary
to conduct a strategic offensive operation and
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involve at least 150 thousand military personnel
along with thousands of pieces of equipment.
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Therefore, it is very funny to read from
the occupiers or an article on Time,
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which talked about the liberation of
Horlivka by the forces of one brigade.
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Liberation will happen, but one must understand
the details in order to distinguish enemy
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disinformation from reality. The reality is
somewhat different, and it is described above.
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Briefly on Avdiivka.
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Russian troops are preparing for
the third wave of the offensive,
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now there is a process of accumulation
of mechanized component. This is clearly
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evidenced by the redeployment of
the tank regiment and division.
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Predictably, the enemy will try within the
framework of this wave of the offensive to
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reach the right side of the railroad, gain
a foothold and develop the offensive in the
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direction and subsequent occupation of
the village of Stepove. This will allow
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them to take fire control of highway 0542 and
start moving in its direction and Berdychi.
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They will also try to break into
the Coke Plant industrial zone.
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Obviously, from the south the enemy will
attack from Vodiane to Sieverne in order
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to capture it and establish fire control over
Route 0542, followed by a move to Tonenke.
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I think that the Russian command more adequately
perceives its capabilities now, and therefore,
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physically cut 0542 and encircle Avdiivka
plan for the 4th wave of the offensive,
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which can be organized in early December.
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Two important points.
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The third wave of the offensive will not
come as a surprise to the Ukrainian command.
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Everything said earlier should have been
implemented by the enemy a week ago,
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during their first offensive by two echelons.
But, the encirclement of Avdiivka in a few days,
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turned into a battle of foreheads against
the Coke Plant fence for the second month.
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Therefore, no matter how gloomy the
scenario described above is perceived,
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it is not yet a fact that the enemy
will be able to fully realize it.
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