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It is likely that the Russian command of
the Dnieper Group has begun to implement a
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plan to eliminate the tactical bridgeheads of
the AFU on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
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Quite logically decided to start with the
most menacing - what is in the area of Krynky.
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As far as I understand, the plan is as follows....
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To create an advantage in forces and means
in the form of 3 tactical groups. And then,
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two flanks, from the areas
of Korsunka and the village
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of Kozachi Laheri to attack along the
coastal road Oleshky - Nova Kakhovka...
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While the third, frontal one will
operate through the forest south of
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Krynky trying to push back the advanced
AFU units from the northern part of the
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forest first to the village itself and
then to the floodplain of the river....
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According to the volume and number of enemy forces
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and means only against one Ukrainian
bridgehead near the village of Krynky
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the enemy has concentrated almost
2 full-fledged "combat" brigades.
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I am not going to predict now
whether they will succeed or fail....
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But the new commander of the "Dnieper" Group
is acting reasonably, avoiding the formation
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of "columns of troops" in front of the
Ukrainian bridgehead. It tries not to
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expose its troops to the effective fire of
Ukrainian artillery in the areas and at the
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borders of their concentration and deployment.
Admittedly, this distinguishes him from other
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operational-level commanders. Unlike many
butchers, who often recklessly send their
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troops into offensives beyond reasonable norms,
aiming to crush the enemy through sheer force.
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But how exactly Russian troops will act is mostly
clear. Another thing is the actions of the AFU,
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which will be forced to flexibly and quickly solve
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a whole set of rather complex tasks to
hold and preserve their bridgeheads.
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Another factor is no less obvious and important
- the enemy will have to make do with rather
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limited resources to solve the task set before it.
Heavy and intense fighting in the Tokmak direction
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does not stop, near Avdiivka, Bakhmut and in the
Kupiansk direction as well. That is why there is
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no free army or division, not even a regiment
or a brigade for this direction right now....
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they'll have to gather forces piece by piece
here and there or make do with what's available.
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- And one more thing... Many military experts
and analysts quite falsely imagine the REAL
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immediate tasks and meaning of the AFU's actions
on the left bank of the Dnipro. In this respect,
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for some reason, they mostly fall
into some extremes from "PR on
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blood" to "prospects of a breakthrough
towards Crimea". But at this stage,
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the main meaning is not this... and the
desire to get a sufficiently wide on the
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front of the Dnipro coast on the right bank
of the river, where the bulk of the enemy
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artillery will not reach. There's no talk about
something bigger at the moment, not at all.
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I would also like to remind you that
the distance along the right bank,
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with all the twists and "bends" of the
front is 250 kilometers. Therefore,
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I suggest you to think about how
many forces the enemy needs to hold
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such a section and secure it from active
actions of the Ukrainian defense forces?
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Especially in conditions when
you are significantly limited
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in the organization and use of mobile reserves...
5024
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