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Once again, Avdiivka. Yes, it's
currently the hottest spot,
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but today we'll discuss what
sets it apart from Bakhmut.
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Many people are now drawing parallels between the
Russian troops' offensive in Avdiivka and last
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year's offensive in Bakhmut. But I believe that
this is not quite correct for a number of reasons.
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Yes, the Russian troops are now trying to press
the flanks at Avdiivka, similar to Bakhmut, and
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as they lost a significant amount of equipment,
they switched to the predominant use of infantry.
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But Avdiivka, despite the fact that it is
a fundamental fortified area, has a number
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of vulnerabilities compared to Bakhmut. For
example, it is only one logistical artery west
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of the city. Yes, in addition to it, there are
a dozen dirt roads, but as the weather worsens,
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they will be difficult to pass through and are
not the main supply arteries. But in Bakhmut,
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control over the two arteries was maintained,
not to mention the dirt roads between them.
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In Avdiivka, Route 0542 is a high-risk
logistics route, and the main one,
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so the defense is complicated by
the presence of additional risks.
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Also, in the offensive on Avdiivka applied
breakthrough tactics used under Vuhledar,
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which could not be seen under Bakhmut.
Thanks to this suicidal tactic Avdiivka
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has already surpassed Vuhledar and Bakhmut
in the number of destroyed enemy manpower
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and equipment for three weeks. And this
should also be given special attention.
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The fact is that after the failure of the first
wave on October 10, the Russian command ordered
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to pull everything that is available under
Avdiivka. And this "all" as of today are the
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units of at least 3 combined arms armies. They
are now involved in the offensive on the small
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town of Avdiivka, with an area of less than 12
square miles and a frontline of about 18 miles.
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In addition, various assault units are already
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involved in the offensive or are
being brought in additionally.
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That is, as of now, the quantitative pressure
per unit area and length of the front in Avdiivka
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is many times greater than what we have
seen for 10 months at Bakhmut. Similarly,
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in terms of the losses that the Russian
troops are suffering, it's just a non-stop
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recycling of the enemy. But, you have to be
realistic and understand that any defense can
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eventually be broken through. Similarly, any
fortified area, over time, but is breached.
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The only question is what resources the
Russian command is ready to spend on this,
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especially considering that they are already
experiencing depletion in terms of equipment,
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but not in men. In turn, it will
not be possible to realize the
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encirclement of Avdiivka
with human resources alone.
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In fact, Avdiivka turns into a colossal
disgrace for the Russian troops,
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even more than Bakhmut. And if this fact would
stop any other commander in order to avoid
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worsening their position and not to expend
another thousands lives of their soldiers,
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for the Russian command, this serves as an
incentive to continue the meat grinder...
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The coming weeks may be decisive for Avdiivka,
because they will clearly show what resources
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the enemy command is ready to operate, more
precisely - sacrifice, to achieve their goals.
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