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Avdiivka... The situation continues to develop.
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So, it is tentatively confirmed that after the
failure of the first wave of the offensive,
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the Russian command started the process of
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transferring units from the
Luhansk region to Avdiivka.
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Recently, the Russian command sent a platoon
of suicide bombers to the Avdiivka slag heap,
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whose combat task was to plant a flag as a symbol
of Russian troops' control over the site. They
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completed the task, but the control over the
terraicon as it was not, and not. The enemy
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could not entrench, set up positions, or control
the site. The terricon remains a gray zone.
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On the other hand, they are not just bringing
such diverse forces to Avdiivka from other
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bridgeheads for no reason. New waves of
offensives are expected in the near future,
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although they will have their own nuance,
which can play in favor of the Ukrainian
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Liberation Forces. Namely, the lack
of the necessary technical component.
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That is, in terms of staffing of offensive units,
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what we will see in the near future in the area
of Avdiivka will not be similar to what we saw
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on October 10. Marching battalions will
predominantly go on the offensive. This,
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in a certain sense, simplifies the
process of defeating the enemy's manpower.
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In fact, in the 3rd week of
the offensive on Avdiivka,
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the Russian command switched to
the tactics of storming Bakhmut,
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which was used by the enemy in the 4th month
of the offensive on the city. That is, in the
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near future we will see under Avdiivka what we
observed under Bakhmut from November to December.
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At the moment, the situation
in the Avdiivka, Kupiansk,
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and Lyman directions increasingly reminds
me of the Russian command going all in.
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This is evident from the speed at which the
understaffed 25th Combined Arms Army was sent
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to the front, the fact that hidden mobilization
does not cover the enemy's losses, and the pace
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of modernization and equipment production does
not compensate for its losses. What will happen
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to them at the end of the fall-winter campaign?
All of this does not seem to concern them.
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They want to get a break in the war in their
favor, so they have taken out of storage what
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can drive and shoot. That is why they are now
so actively "shuffling" units from one area to
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another. That is why they have set the task of
gaining the strategic initiative at any cost.
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The Russian command believes that the capture
of Avdiivka, Marinka, Lyman, and Kupiansk will
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be enough to force the Ukrainian side to agree
to negotiations. Their goal is to recognize the
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occupied territories in favor of Russia and
to gain time to prepare for a possible new
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war with Ukraine. But the Russian side will
not be able to realize its strategic goal.
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During the last week we have observed maximum
activity of the enemy in the north, in the area
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of the slag heap and the railroad. However, in
general, the fate of the defense of the Avdiivka
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area is likely to be decided not in the north, but
to the south of it. Where, the extent to which the
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enemy troops can bypass the main positions of
the AFU in Avdiivka is much greater than in the
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north. In fact, they to the south have already
gone "for the flank" of the Ukrainian defense
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area in Avdiivka, and they only need to break
through to its rear in the area of Orlivka.
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The enemy's main forces are concentrated
to the south ... I think that another
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attempt to break through from the
south to the rear of the Avdiivka
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defense will obviously take
place in the near future....
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