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Today we will talk about the "Summer Dissection"
of the Russian forces, what to expect from
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the fall campaign and about the strange business
in the Rabotyno area.
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In the north-eastern sector of the village
of Novoprokopivka, the enemy forces lost their
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combat capability, were knocked out of the
dominant heights and were forced to flee into
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the village.
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Earlier, in the area of Ilchenkovo village,
Russian units were also withdrawn to the village.
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Of course, they were withdrawn due to the
loss of combat effectiveness and what is most
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interesting is that in the area of Ilchenkovo
is the last dominant height in the location.
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Beyond that, there is a descent into lowlands.
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Some kind of unexpected wave of loss of combat
effectiveness of Russian troops, or...?
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quite expected?
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A classic loss of combat effectiveness of
a unit is when losses reach 30% of the number
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of personnel and equipment.
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When a unit loses combat capability, it's
removed from the combat zone to recover.
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But, back in 2022, Russian commanders abandoned
the 30% threshold and increased it to 60%.
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It was quite difficult to surpass the effectiveness
of the June and July battles, but in August
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the Ukrainian side set an absolute record
for the number of Russian artillery they destroyed
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- 691 units!
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This, in turn, allows maintaining an average
level of losses that exceeds the capacity
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of the Russian defense industry to replenish
them.
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To simplify, the Ukrainians destroy more Russian
artillery than the enemy produces and removes
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from storage.
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Also in August was the second indicator for
the entire period of full-scale war on the
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destruction of Russian logistics vehicles
- 685 units.
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Previously, more were burned only in March
2022, when Russian logistics convoys were
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destroyed non-stop.
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That month, 865 units were burned.
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I made a table of how much Russian troops
lost equipment and personnel during the summer
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campaign.
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Who is interested, put the video on pause.
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It is my strong belief that in September the
emphasis will shift more to Armoured fighting
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vehicles and tanks.
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In August, a tendency was noticed, and closer
to October, its catalyzing is not excluded.
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We are likely to have almost the most intensive
month in terms of news.
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September will determine what the fall will
be like, and the fall may answer what the
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war will be like next.
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And - if we're very lucky - roughly orient
how quickly it will all be over.
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It probably won't be the month of the biggest
battles.
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But it could be a month of small but crucial
operations.
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Operations by a team of neurosurgeons, led
by Ukrainian commanders....
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So, what can we expect?
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A cautious continuation of the offensive in
the south and the destruction of Russian defense
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infrastructure.
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Over the summer, Ukrainian Liberation Forces
inflicted a serious defeat on Russian defensive
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positions.
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They successfully overcame minefields and
important fortification nodes along several
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strategically important Russian defense lines.
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These actions potentially brought the Ukrainian
Armed Forces closer to Tokmak and Melitopol
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on one side, and Mariupol and Berdyansk on
the other.
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And in September, the Ukrainian Armed Forces
will continue to work to expand offensive
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bridgeheads and make further advances.
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This fall will show how depleted the enemy's
defenses are and how demoralized are their
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personnel.
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And the Ukrainians, having dismantled the
Russians sufficiently, will strike properly.
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Time will tell how close to victory this strike
will be.
5585
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