All language subtitles for 01-09-2023gctrdctr

Ukrainian pressure on the enemy
and what are the prospects?

Summer is over and we can summarize some results
of what the Ukrainian defense forces have done.

"Summer campaign" ended very productively,
but the enemy is not yet ready to flee,

and without an air advantage it is
inappropriate to act "American-style".

But the Defense Forces have demonstrated the
ability to adapt to any circumstances, to act

flexibly and perform tasks in ultra-complicated
conditions, and to act with foresight.

The Ukrainian Liberation Forces are successfully

carrying out three tasks at
once in southern Ukraine:

1. Caution is taken, but effective progress is
being made at key points of the Russian defense.

2. Deplete the Russian forces and reserves
on a wide front, luring and provoking the

enemy into counterattacks, in which he
is defeated and becomes even weaker.

3. They continue to destroy the forces
covering the main line of defense of

the enemy - artillery, air defense
systems, multiple launch rocket systems.

Overcoming the first enemy line gradually reveals
the main disadvantage of all static defense lines:

as soon as the integrity of the
fortification system is broken,

the best thing you can do is to retreat
to the next one. Because if the Ukrainians

expand their zone of control and eliminate the
natural threat from the flanks, the Russians

will find themselves sandwiched between their own
fortifications, minefields, and in the crossfire.

But the Russians are acting on a slightly
different logic, they are trying to retake

their positions. Because for the Russian
leadership, war is politics, and commanders

on the ground don't want to report bad news
upstairs. This depletes reserves and ensures

comparable losses for the occupation forces
in the Ukrainian offensive zone. Instead of

the "standard" offensive losses of 1 to 3, the
Ukrainians have at least parity in equipment,

but more often the enemy loses more equipment. The
shortage of manpower forces the enemy to use not

only the reserves available in the direction,
but also to pull forces from other directions.

Every kilometer of advance corrects the
capabilities of artillery, air defense and MLRS.

The Russian ones drop sharply,
while the Ukrainians' - increase.

After all, the AFU's means of defeat are on
average more long-range than the Russian ones.

Quite soon, it is a matter of a few kilometers,
there will be an opportunity to relatively safely

attack the Berdyansk airfield with GMLRS
missiles, as it was with Chornobaivka.

Why is this important? Because that
is where the Russian army aviation,

or more specifically helicopters, are based, which
seriously impede the advance of the AFU. This will

lead to an even greater narrowing of the Russians'
ability to maintain their lines of defense.

The intensification of Ukrainian sabotage groups
on the left bank of the Dnipro is also about

pressure. The Russians must increasingly fear for
their rear. Realize that one day an amphibious

operation could begin that would threaten the
Russian group's communications with Crimea.

The Russians will increasingly feel squeezed
between the sea and the offensive forces.

Also, attacks by Ukrainian drones on deep rear
areas are gaining momentum, and the main thing

is that the geography is expanding. Russia
is very large and there are not enough air

defenses to cover its strategic sites. They will
either have to pull it back from the front or get

MORE AND MORE strikes on painful and critical
targets. Again there is an unpleasant dilemma.

The AFU continues to concentrate its main efforts
in the south, where Russian logistics are more

vulnerable. The probability that this year the
Russian army will sprinkle and escape from Ukraine

is small. But the totality of trends could lead to
avalanche-like consequences at least in the south.

It is important not to forget that every
plot is given at a very great cost.

Just a few figures to understand what is a
security zone or the first line of defense, on the

example of one section of the front - Orikhiv. The
breakthrough here was carried out along a front of

up to 9 km, the density of mines was 45 thousand
mines per one km of depth, just for understanding.