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So, the Ukrainian armed forces have
begun fighting to take over the first
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positions of the enemy's main defense
line in the Tokmak-Melitopol direction.
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The advance units of the AFU have already managed,
at least in one section, to penetrate to a depth
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of up to 1 km into the first position
of the enemy's main line of defense.
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Let's try to understand how the
enemy can act in this situation,
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and what his reaction to
the recent events may be....
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The first thing that catches the eye is the
rather nervous reaction of the enemy command.
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That, in turn, resulted in an attempt to pull
to the Novoprokopivka area, as well as to the
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flanks of this area, the maximum possible number
of more or less combat-ready forces and means,
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which are still at the disposal of
the Russian command in this direction.
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After the liberation of the village of Robotino by
the advanced units of the AFU, a gap was created
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in the enemy's combat order in the direction of
the village of Kopani. Because after liberating
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the village, the AFU overcame the local enemy
fortifications, which were just located between it
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and the village of Kopani. Having found themselves
south of them, they got the opportunity to turn
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their right flank in the western direction and
start an attack on the village of Kopani....
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Precisely because of these circumstances,
the enemy began to move their battalions
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from Vasylivka direction to the area of Kopani
village. And now, hastily, with their help,
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is trying to organize the defense between
this village and already liberated Rabotino.
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And even this is not the main threat for the
enemy now. The most unpleasant things for
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him are happening somewhat to the east - between
Novoprokopivka and Verbove. Where, by coincidence,
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not only the first positions of the enemy's
main defense line "turned out", but also the
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main advance of the AFU advanced units in the
general southern direction is taking place.
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Which the enemy, obviously, cannot stop yet.
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The losses of the Russian forces in
this direction are very significant,
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and they are forced to urgently transfer
reinforcements from other places,
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while acting quite chaotically. The occupants
have also increased the number of air strikes,
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as artillery means are not enough
to stop the advance of the AFU.
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The enemy is faced with the problem: how and where
best to reinforce its main line of defense ? This
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is mainly due to the fact that Ukrainian troops
are constantly expanding their territory by
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wedging in, and it is difficult for the enemy to
decide how best to defend against this expansion.
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Forces and means at the enemy,
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in order to simply "stop" the advance of
the AFU towards Tokmak - not so much...
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I think the main question now is another - how
he will use them.... And whether the Russian
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command will find anything "substantial" to
hold the main defense line in the near future.
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For, the "crackling" in the
Novoprokopivka and Verbove
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area can already be heard quite clearly in
Tokmak, which is less than 30 km away...
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Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Attack
has canceled the "West 23" exercise.
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The exercise in 2021 was the
largest since the Soviet era.
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However, it has now become clear even to the
Russian leadership that they were held mainly for
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show, and no practical effect was expected from
them. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces have
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too few troops not involved in Ukraine to conduct
an exercise of this scale. And this is good news.
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