All language subtitles for 18-08-2023ersteryt

Russia is preparing a big offensive....

Today all tapes are full of an article in
Newsweek that Russia is preparing its big

offensive in Ukraine. The publication
was informed about it by some unnamed

but very reliable sources.... Well, as always.

But, despite this, I think it is still
worth considering this issue in detail.

Is Russia really capable of preparing for
a major offensive by the spring of 2024?

Since the second half of 2022, the
Russian occupation forces have lost

the offensive potential of broad front operations.

That is, already in the summer of last year
the Russian army was so exhausted that it was

not capable of advancing along a broad front,
but only in narrow directions and locations.

Such a narrow direction and a
separate location was Bakhmut.

The small town is the main achievement of the
Russian side since the second half of 2022.

And this is a very controversial achievement,

which the Russian occupants are now losing
every day, and have not captured it to the end.

At the same time, having numerical superiority, in
terms of personnel, equipment and missile strike

capabilities, the enemy was unable to hold
the captured territories. That is, after the

loss of offensive potential, the question arose
about the completeness of defense capabilities.

And this question is just as relevant now.
Having strong defense lines fortified in the

Zaporizhzhya region, which had no analogues
in modern conflicts, the Russian armed forces

had a numerical advantage over the Ukrainian
troops by three or even more times. However,

they were forced to use their reserves, including
strategic reserves, losing ground in defense.

At the same time, Russia is sending to Ukraine
to compensate for losses practically everything

that it takes out of preservation and recovers,
and even this is not enough to cover the losses.

The combat effectiveness of all
this mass goes into the minus.

In the east, since the end of June,
along the Lyman-Kupiansk axis,

the Russian command has decided
to play an imitation offensive.

They have been imitating for the second month,
and what result have they achieved? Two groups

of troops, numbering 100 thousand, are treading
on the ground without any significant results.

That is, in the South 150 thousand people
can not hold the defense, in the East 100

thousand people can not attack
in three narrow directions.

So then how many men does the Russian army
need to successfully offensive? For example,

in 2022 just over 300 thousand were mobilized,
and the result? The answer is simple - none.

Offensive potential is not just people, it is
also their skills, but in addition to skills,

it is also a technical component. And Russia
does not have the ability to form new units,

armies, strike groups, which would
correspond to offensive functionality.

For example, they will gather 500,000
men. What is 500,000 personnel?

It is 625 Battalion tactical groups. And for
these 625 BTGs to successfully attack, they

must be equipped with 6,875 tanks, 20,625 Armored
fighting vehicles, 7,500 pieces of artillery and

Multiple rocket launchers, and so on. Will Russia
be able to provide all this before spring? No.

Russian troops are now losing an average of
600 pieces of artillery per month, and Russia's

military-industrial complex is capable of removing
200 to 300 from storage in the same month.

Every month Russia can send to
the war zone from 100 to 150 tanks

of different modifications,
mainly T-62, T-54 and T-55.

So the question arises, what big
offensive can Putin's army prepare ?

Currently Russian military-industrial
complex is not working to provide new units,

but feverish compensation of losses. In
2022 Russian troops lost the ability to

carry out offensive on a wide front, in 2023 their
limited capacity on narrow fronts was confirmed.

So draw conclusions, and in
the meantime we continue to

watch the offensive of the Ukrainian side.

By the way, Marcus has been
transferred from 47 Magurа Brigade,

I can't understand which one yet,
he's not a master sergeant now.