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The offensive on Lyman has choked,
the offensive on Borova has collapsed,
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the offensive on Kupiansk...
let's stop here in detail.
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For the Russian command, a critical
moment has arrived – strategic reserves
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are being activated in the South. It
shows that their defenses there are
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cracking at the seams and the only
way out is to reduce the pressure.
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To reduce the pressure, according to the enemy
command's plan, is possible by dispersing the
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resource of Ukrainian defense forces from
the south to the northeast. Otherwise, the
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strategic reserve of the occupants, at best, will
be enough until mid-September. Therefore, after
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losing the initiative to Lyman and Borova, the
Russians will persistently push through Kupiansk.
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But there is a nuance in this plan of pulling
back the resource and reducing pressure. The
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same units of limited functionality are
still operating in the South, rather than
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the main Ukrainian strike groups designed
to break through the main line of defense.
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The conclusion is self-evident.
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Meanwhile, the enemy command has started
moving units and subunits from the "newly
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formed" formations and associations to the South.
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And we are talking, most likely, about
the enemy's strategic reserves ... Namely,
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the combined arms armies of the Central
and Southern Military Districts of Russia,
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which the enemy has formed as part of his
declared increase in the size of his armed forces.
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It becomes clear that the enemy has quite
actively started the deployment of the
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second operational echelon of troops in
the defense zone of its group of troops
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"Dnepr" .... Moreover, he has engaged a
strategic reserve for this purpose....
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Such a decision of Russia's top military
command is not accidental or poorly reasoned.
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It is, in fact, forced.
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After all, it is obvious that strategic
reserves are put into action only in two
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cases - when they are preparing
a large-scale offensive, or when
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it has to be done out of "extreme necessity"
because somewhere begins to "crack and tear".
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It is obvious that the Russian side obviously
cannot launch an offensive in the south,
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and especially in the Kherson direction,
where the enemy is now transferring a
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"fresh" motorized rifle division
from its strategic reserves....
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Therefore, it is clear that this is happening
within the framework of strengthening the
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defense capabilities of the Dnipro group.
But, in this regard, there is a well-reasoned
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question - why exactly there and why exactly now?
Why this "fresh meat" does not go, for example,
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to Tokmak, or to Berdyansk direction,
where the Ukrainian offensive is going on?
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The answer is simple - because the recent events
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in the Crimean-Tauride direction have
really "worried" the Russian command.
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Here we need to "go into details" a bit...
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The fact is that the enemy still
can not stop a number of tactical
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bridgeheads of the Ukrainian defense
forces on the left bank of the Dnipro.
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Yes, I was not mistaken... there is
not one, but at least 2 of them...
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For example, during the previous few days, the
enemy tried at least three times to attack some
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"hard-to-define" positions of the AFU west of
Kozachi Laheri settlement on the occupied bank,
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and to no avail. In this regard,
I find it hard to believe that the
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Russian command is so "stupid" that it
can attack someone who is not there...
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Obviously, it is precisely to prevent the
Ukrainian bridgeheads from "expanding or
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connecting" that these reserves are arriving...
The expansion of the Ukrainian forces' bridgehead
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on the left bank of the Dnipro towards Armyansk
is a very "sensitive" nuisance for the enemy....
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While writing the scenario, BILD reported that
the AFU fighters are entrenched on the left
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bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region,
to the northern border of Crimea - 83 km.
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It's getting more and more interesting...
5896
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