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Let's talk about enemy reserves and prospects.
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The occupiers have probably learned the rule
badly since last year - if you pull reserves
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from one area, you weaken another.
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And we are not even talking about tactical
reserves.
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Now they have a dilemma - where to move them?
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Sometimes they lack the strength and resources
for a full-fledged execution of tasks in Kupiansk
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and Lyman, then they want to fully capture
Marinka, then to encircle Avdiivka.
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Or to hold positions in Bakhmut and Staromlynivka,
or in other locations.
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But there will come a moment when they will
be forced to get into not operational, but
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strategic reserves.
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And in principle, there is not much left there.
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After all, their main reserves are still tactical.
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There are still a certain number of operational
ones, which cover the 3rd line and what is
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behind it.
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From these reserves, the enemy is already
slowly employing units.
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It should be understood that the deeper the
Ukrainians go into the enemy's orders, the
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fewer minefields there are.
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This means that even to delay the advance
of the Ukrainian defense forces, the Russians
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will have to suffer fantastic losses.
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In other words, to disperse and deplete reserves.
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And when one side enters an operational space
that is not covered by reserves, it ends sadly
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for the other side.
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But the enemy is still very strong and has
a sufficient margin of safety.
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The stakes are now at their highest, and the
price of error is also at its maximum.
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In such conditions we see such rates of advancement,
which we have now.
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But it will not be like this all the time,
that very moment will come at some point.
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But it will not end the war, it is still for
a long time, the war will not stop even after
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reaching the borders of 1991.
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And this is important to realize!
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Everything, literally everything, will depend
on the success of this year.
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But this is about detailed planning, balanced
decisions and prompt response, not about when
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the Ukrainians will march on Moscow or seize
any Russian territories.
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This will not happen in principle, it is important
to transfer fire to the enemy's territory
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and wage war there, but it will be done by
Russians, for example Freedom of Russia Legion.
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And from the Ukrainian side they will have
someone to cover them.
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I am sure that the Ukrainian command has such
competencies, which has been proven many times.
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But conducting large-scale all-arms operations,
which have not happened for almost 80 years
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all over the world - this thing is extremely
difficult.
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On the fingers of one hand you can count on
the fingers of one hand those people who will
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be able to organize and implement it.
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There are such people in Ukraine, and this
is good.
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Now we would have to wait for modern aviation
and remove the taboo on the use of Western
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weapons on the territory of Russia.
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The conclusions are very simple, in fact,
and I have already said it more than once.
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We all need patience and understanding that
the war will not end tomorrow, and the most
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important thing is that the war is not somewhere
"out there", only in Ukraine.
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It is close to all of us, but it is hard to
imagine and I understand that.
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Well said Dr. Jack Watling of the Royal United
Services Institute in his piece criticizing
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the decision-making process at the level of
Western governments:
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"The war in Ukraine has highlighted significant
shortcomings in the machinery of government
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in NATO capitals, and it is vital that these
are corrected to ensure that the Alliance
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is prepared for future threats.
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The most glaring flaw is the failure of Ukraine's
partners to appreciate the time lag between
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decisions and their desired effect.
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The delay between knowing what was needed
and deciding whether to provide assistance
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was very costly.
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Russian incompetence in conducting offensive
operations in January 2023 saved Ukraine's
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allies from all the consequences of their
indecision.
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The Ukrainian offensive may yet succeed.
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But its cost has risen sharply because of
Western lethargy."
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