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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:01,189 --> 00:00:04,960 Let's talk about enemy reserves and prospects. 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:09,380 The occupiers have probably learned the rule badly since last year - if you pull reserves 3 00:00:09,380 --> 00:00:12,240 from one area, you weaken another. 4 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:15,750 And we are not even talking about tactical reserves. 5 00:00:15,750 --> 00:00:18,870 Now they have a dilemma - where to move them? 6 00:00:18,870 --> 00:00:23,890 Sometimes they lack the strength and resources for a full-fledged execution of tasks in Kupiansk 7 00:00:23,890 --> 00:00:27,849 and Lyman, then they want to fully capture Marinka, then to encircle Avdiivka. 8 00:00:27,849 --> 00:00:34,300 Or to hold positions in Bakhmut and Staromlynivka, or in other locations. 9 00:00:34,300 --> 00:00:38,231 But there will come a moment when they will be forced to get into not operational, but 10 00:00:38,231 --> 00:00:40,640 strategic reserves. 11 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,239 And in principle, there is not much left there. 12 00:00:44,239 --> 00:00:47,930 After all, their main reserves are still tactical. 13 00:00:47,930 --> 00:00:52,370 There are still a certain number of operational ones, which cover the 3rd line and what is 14 00:00:52,370 --> 00:00:54,000 behind it. 15 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:59,280 From these reserves, the enemy is already slowly employing units. 16 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,140 It should be understood that the deeper the Ukrainians go into the enemy's orders, the 17 00:01:03,140 --> 00:01:05,800 fewer minefields there are. 18 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:10,090 This means that even to delay the advance of the Ukrainian defense forces, the Russians 19 00:01:10,090 --> 00:01:12,869 will have to suffer fantastic losses. 20 00:01:12,869 --> 00:01:16,590 In other words, to disperse and deplete reserves. 21 00:01:16,590 --> 00:01:22,079 And when one side enters an operational space that is not covered by reserves, it ends sadly 22 00:01:22,079 --> 00:01:24,200 for the other side. 23 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:28,560 But the enemy is still very strong and has a sufficient margin of safety. 24 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:33,890 The stakes are now at their highest, and the price of error is also at its maximum. 25 00:01:33,890 --> 00:01:39,240 In such conditions we see such rates of advancement, which we have now. 26 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:44,140 But it will not be like this all the time, that very moment will come at some point. 27 00:01:44,140 --> 00:01:49,020 But it will not end the war, it is still for a long time, the war will not stop even after 28 00:01:49,020 --> 00:01:52,250 reaching the borders of 1991. 29 00:01:52,250 --> 00:01:54,719 And this is important to realize! 30 00:01:54,719 --> 00:02:00,080 Everything, literally everything, will depend on the success of this year. 31 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:04,810 But this is about detailed planning, balanced decisions and prompt response, not about when 32 00:02:04,810 --> 00:02:09,440 the Ukrainians will march on Moscow or seize any Russian territories. 33 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:13,810 This will not happen in principle, it is important to transfer fire to the enemy's territory 34 00:02:13,810 --> 00:02:19,790 and wage war there, but it will be done by Russians, for example Freedom of Russia Legion. 35 00:02:19,790 --> 00:02:23,129 And from the Ukrainian side they will have someone to cover them. 36 00:02:23,129 --> 00:02:29,310 I am sure that the Ukrainian command has such competencies, which has been proven many times. 37 00:02:29,310 --> 00:02:33,900 But conducting large-scale all-arms operations, which have not happened for almost 80 years 38 00:02:33,900 --> 00:02:38,180 all over the world - this thing is extremely difficult. 39 00:02:38,180 --> 00:02:42,060 On the fingers of one hand you can count on the fingers of one hand those people who will 40 00:02:42,060 --> 00:02:45,099 be able to organize and implement it. 41 00:02:45,099 --> 00:02:48,930 There are such people in Ukraine, and this is good. 42 00:02:48,930 --> 00:02:53,040 Now we would have to wait for modern aviation and remove the taboo on the use of Western 43 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,800 weapons on the territory of Russia. 44 00:02:55,800 --> 00:03:01,610 The conclusions are very simple, in fact, and I have already said it more than once. 45 00:03:01,610 --> 00:03:05,799 We all need patience and understanding that the war will not end tomorrow, and the most 46 00:03:05,799 --> 00:03:10,120 important thing is that the war is not somewhere "out there", only in Ukraine. 47 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:15,989 It is close to all of us, but it is hard to imagine and I understand that. 48 00:03:15,989 --> 00:03:20,629 Well said Dr. Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in his piece criticizing 49 00:03:20,629 --> 00:03:23,629 the decision-making process at the level of Western governments: 50 00:03:23,629 --> 00:03:28,319 "The war in Ukraine has highlighted significant shortcomings in the machinery of government 51 00:03:28,319 --> 00:03:32,519 in NATO capitals, and it is vital that these are corrected to ensure that the Alliance 52 00:03:32,519 --> 00:03:34,959 is prepared for future threats. 53 00:03:34,959 --> 00:03:39,569 The most glaring flaw is the failure of Ukraine's partners to appreciate the time lag between 54 00:03:39,569 --> 00:03:42,520 decisions and their desired effect. 55 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:46,640 The delay between knowing what was needed and deciding whether to provide assistance 56 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:48,799 was very costly. 57 00:03:48,799 --> 00:03:53,739 Russian incompetence in conducting offensive operations in January 2023 saved Ukraine's 58 00:03:53,739 --> 00:03:57,189 allies from all the consequences of their indecision. 59 00:03:57,189 --> 00:04:00,430 The Ukrainian offensive may yet succeed. 60 00:04:00,430 --> 00:04:03,409 But its cost has risen sharply because of Western lethargy." 6285

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