All language subtitles for 05-08-2023ghcxtyi

The New York Times has published an article
about the Ukrainian "counteroffensive," and

surprisingly, they are no longer writing about
the failure of the offensive.

In summary, in three sentences: "The Ukrainian
armed forces have stopped using U.S. tactics

as part of their counteroffensive.

The Ukrainian side is now focused on wearing
down Russian forces with artillery and long-range

missiles.

The Ukrainians may revert to the "American
way" of warfare if the AFU breaks through

Russian defenses."

Not if, but when ! And in general, I am surprised
that everyone counted on liberation of a huge

territory faster than it happened on the right
bank of Kherson region.

How quickly events that are not even a year
old are forgotten.

What is happening in Zaporizhzhya region,
what is the phase of the offensive there,

when will be the breakthrough of the second
line of defense?

It is in this context, I want to remember
the liberation of Kherson ... You remember

how quickly everything happened there ? But
there is a nuance, it was fast only in the

very last phase of the offensive.

We can talk about the offensive of the Ukrainian
defense forces in the Kherson region in full

after the Ukrainian units began to force the
Ingulets River and gain a foothold on its

left bank.

In fact, this process began in May 2022 and
it is fair to consider this starting point

as the beginning of the liberation of the
right bank.

Yes, according to official information, the
order to develop a plan for "de-occupation

of southern Ukraine" came from the president
on July 10, but the process itself started

in May, but its intensification took place
just in July, when the first strikes were

made on Antonov and Kakhovka bridges.

So, the start was in May, intensification
in July, activation of the main forces - August

29, preparation of Russian public opinion
for the inevitable flight from Kherson - October

and finally, the liberation of Kherson - November
11.

Total - almost half a year.

If someone is comfortable, you can divide
all this into so-called "phases".

And now, just superimpose the scenario of
liberation of the right-bank Kherson region

on the processes that are now taking place
in the Zaporizhzhya region.

Just like a year ago, the Ukrainian forces
started with combat reconnaissance and continue

to advance deep into the first line of defense,
then there were bridges.

Progressively something happens to the Crimean
bridge, the Chongar bridges and this is just

a prelude.

Alongside, mundane and routine daily burning
warehouses with ammunition, fuel and lubricants,

undermining logistics, disrupting the supply
of forward units and their management, degrading

logistics.

Yes, someone will rightly note that Zaporizhzhya
region, together with the left-bank Kherson

region, is a much larger area, and the group
of troops there is concentrated 6 times larger.

But at the same time, this mass has all the
same problems as the one that was knocked

out of the right bank.

And now, let's project the problems of the
25 thousand group, which compactly occupied

the bridgehead of the right bank, onto the
150 thousand group, the logistics of which,

among other things, stretches for hundreds
of kilometers, not dozens.

Look closely and you will notice that Colossus
is sagging under its weight.

Based on all of the above, one can make quite
realistic forecasts that consistently involve

September, October, and November, but this
note is not about that...

it's about critical thinking, equanimity,
and faith in Ukraine's defense forces.

I hope I didn’t confuse you very much, did
I manage to convey everything ? I look forward

to your comments, I read everything, I don't
always reply.