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This show is fictitious.
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00:00:07,586 --> 00:00:09,586
There is not actually
an asteroid
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headed to New York City today,
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00:00:11,379 --> 00:00:15,482
but this is based on
simulations of such an event.
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00:00:15,586 --> 00:00:18,620
We run simulations of
fictional asteroid strike
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00:00:18,689 --> 00:00:21,620
to prepare for
the worst-case scenario.
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[Mike Rowe]
November 4, 2029.
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We face a countdown
to catastrophe.
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A giant asteroid hurtles
towards Earth.
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It's heading straight for
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the eastern seaboard of
the United States.
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00:00:43,620 --> 00:00:48,000
The space rock could wipe out
an entire city
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00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,275
and cause
widespread devastation.
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00:00:53,517 --> 00:00:57,068
Can Earth survive?
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00:00:59,068 --> 00:01:00,586
[electricity crackles]
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00:01:01,931 --> 00:01:03,586
[explosion]
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00:01:12,172 --> 00:01:16,310
New York City,
November 4, 2029.
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The deserted metropolis waited
for the asteroid to strike.
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A giant space rock entered
the atmosphere,
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00:01:27,689 --> 00:01:31,172
heading straight for the eastern
seaboard of the USA.
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[Plesko] As it comes through
the atmosphere,
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we would see something as
bright as the sun getting
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00:01:37,689 --> 00:01:39,896
brighter and brighter
and brighter.
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00:01:41,172 --> 00:01:44,379
[Durda] At speeds of maybe
20 kilometers per second or so.
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That's something like
18 times faster than
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00:01:46,896 --> 00:01:50,482
the speed of a bullet
coming out of a rifle.
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00:01:50,586 --> 00:01:53,103
This asteroid was
headed towards
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00:01:53,172 --> 00:01:56,275
the most populous city
in America,
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00:01:56,275 --> 00:01:58,793
and when it impacts,
it would deliver
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00:01:58,896 --> 00:02:03,931
more energy than
1,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.
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00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:11,724
[ explosion ]
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00:02:14,586 --> 00:02:17,172
It would level some of the most
expensive real estate
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00:02:17,172 --> 00:02:19,000
in the world in seconds.
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00:02:27,689 --> 00:02:30,827
There would be a crater where
Central Park used to be.
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00:02:33,689 --> 00:02:36,827
I actually don't even like
thinking about this,
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00:02:36,896 --> 00:02:37,827
[ stammering ]
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00:02:37,896 --> 00:02:41,275
of how horrible it
would be.
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00:02:41,379 --> 00:02:44,000
[Plait] This is beyond the
worst disaster
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00:02:44,103 --> 00:02:45,724
the world has--
would have ever faced.
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00:02:45,793 --> 00:02:47,896
There's nothing in our history
that would have
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00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:52,482
done this much damage so
quickly and so devastatingly.
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00:03:01,689 --> 00:03:03,482
[Rowe]
The story of the asteroid
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00:03:03,482 --> 00:03:05,793
and the Earth's fight back
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00:03:05,793 --> 00:03:08,517
started seven years ago,
here in Arizona.
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00:03:14,482 --> 00:03:16,724
September 2022,
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the Catalina Sky Survey.
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00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,724
Guardian of heavens
Greg Leonard drives
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00:03:24,793 --> 00:03:28,103
to Mount Lemmon Observatory
near Tucson.
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00:03:28,172 --> 00:03:31,172
He's on the hunt
for asteroids and comets.
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00:03:32,793 --> 00:03:36,724
[Leonard] We are the watchers of
the skies for the planet.
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00:03:36,793 --> 00:03:41,000
We literally represent
the first line of defense
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00:03:41,068 --> 00:03:44,172
against potentially
incoming asteroids,
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00:03:44,275 --> 00:03:48,103
and I want to emphasize
the words planetary defense.
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00:03:48,172 --> 00:03:51,000
This is not in the benefit
for one nation.
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00:03:51,068 --> 00:03:53,896
This is for the entire planet.
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00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,379
[Rowe] Greg takes
a series of images
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00:03:56,482 --> 00:03:59,896
over a 20-minute period.
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00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,586
Stars don't move
in the photos,
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00:04:03,586 --> 00:04:06,068
but asteroids and comets do.
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00:04:08,172 --> 00:04:10,517
A-ha.
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00:04:10,586 --> 00:04:12,689
We can see
four points of light
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00:04:12,689 --> 00:04:16,379
tracking across the background
of the stationary stars.
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00:04:16,379 --> 00:04:21,689
This one is moving very
quickly across the sky.
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00:04:21,689 --> 00:04:22,724
So this tells me
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00:04:22,793 --> 00:04:26,793
this is a real
near-Earth asteroid candidate.
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00:04:29,689 --> 00:04:33,172
[Rowe] It's one of over 27,000
near-Earth asteroids,
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00:04:33,172 --> 00:04:37,000
or NEAs for short,
discovered by the early 2020s.
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00:04:40,793 --> 00:04:44,103
The huge gravity of Jupiter
can rip space rocks
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00:04:44,172 --> 00:04:47,068
from their home
in the asteroid belt.
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00:04:48,793 --> 00:04:51,793
Some race outwards,
away from the sun.
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00:04:53,620 --> 00:04:58,379
NEAs head inwards,
occasionally towards Earth.
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00:05:00,103 --> 00:05:03,827
We didn't know it
back in September of 2022,
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00:05:03,896 --> 00:05:06,379
but these were
our first images
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00:05:06,379 --> 00:05:08,896
of a deadly incoming asteroid.
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00:05:10,482 --> 00:05:14,172
[Leonard] It's relatively close
to Earth's neighborhood.
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00:05:14,172 --> 00:05:16,724
We don't know exactly
how far it is yet,
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00:05:16,793 --> 00:05:20,275
but it's close enough where
its motion across the sky
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00:05:20,275 --> 00:05:21,517
appears rapid.
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00:05:24,379 --> 00:05:27,000
[Rowe] The discovery
of an NEA set a series
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00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,689
of planet protection protocols
in motion.
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00:05:32,172 --> 00:05:35,172
Step one, enlist
a global team of experts
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00:05:35,172 --> 00:05:37,310
to investigate
the asteroid's orbit.
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[Plesko] We have
some of the brightest minds,
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00:05:43,379 --> 00:05:44,586
some of the best telescopes,
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00:05:44,689 --> 00:05:46,172
some of
the biggest supercomputers
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00:05:46,275 --> 00:05:48,000
working to protect Earth,
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00:05:48,068 --> 00:05:50,172
collaborating
across language barriers,
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00:05:50,172 --> 00:05:53,172
across international
borders to protect humanity.
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[Rowe] This international
planetary defense team
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00:05:57,482 --> 00:06:01,689
was tasked with discovering
if the distant object
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00:06:01,793 --> 00:06:04,379
would become
a serious threat to Earth.
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00:06:07,413 --> 00:06:08,689
Their first job--
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00:06:08,689 --> 00:06:13,000
determine if the NEA's orbit
would intersect with our own.
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00:06:14,689 --> 00:06:16,896
[Plait] Orbits are
a little like roads, right?
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00:06:16,896 --> 00:06:18,896
You've got a path
that something follows,
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00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,172
and they can intersect,
you can have a crossroads.
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00:06:21,275 --> 00:06:23,586
Now, typically, if only one
object is there,
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00:06:23,586 --> 00:06:24,896
that's not a big deal,
99
00:06:24,896 --> 00:06:26,689
but if you have two objects
approaching that intersection
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00:06:26,793 --> 00:06:28,793
at the same time,
they could collide,
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00:06:28,896 --> 00:06:30,793
and that's the danger
from asteroids.
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[Rowe]
The team of scientists
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track the asteroid
for four months.
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00:06:39,586 --> 00:06:43,310
[Chodas] Over time,
you can build up observations.
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00:06:43,379 --> 00:06:48,000
You can gradually narrow down
the possible number of orbits,
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00:06:48,068 --> 00:06:53,275
then determine whether there's
any chance of a future impact,
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00:06:53,275 --> 00:06:55,689
but if the asteroid
is orbiting the sun,
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the Earth is orbiting the sun,
and there's this dance going on.
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Sometimes the asteroid
is near the Earth,
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and we can observe it,
it's bright.
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00:07:03,379 --> 00:07:05,275
Other times
the asteroid is
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on the other side of the sun.
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We can't observe it at all.
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00:07:09,827 --> 00:07:10,965
[Rowe]
We were lucky.
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The asteroid was visible
throughout the fall of 2022.
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00:07:16,620 --> 00:07:20,310
However, our observations of
the space rock's orbit
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showed a very real possibility
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00:07:23,172 --> 00:07:26,413
that it would slam into Earth
in just seven years.
119
00:07:30,206 --> 00:07:32,206
[ whooshing ]
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00:07:32,275 --> 00:07:34,482
Astronomers gave
the incoming asteroid
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a suitably appropriate name, Apep.
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Apep was
the Egyptian god of chaos,
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00:07:43,482 --> 00:07:46,172
so that's a fairly good name
for an asteroid
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00:07:46,172 --> 00:07:47,482
that could
hit the Earth
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because that's exactly what
would happen.
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00:07:49,896 --> 00:07:52,379
You'd have chaos,
destruction, and death.
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00:08:01,310 --> 00:08:06,275
[Rowe] A catalog of devastation
to be unleashed on Earth.
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00:08:06,275 --> 00:08:09,206
But just how bad would
the impact be?
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[Rowe] January 2023.
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00:08:31,379 --> 00:08:34,689
Asteroid Apep was on
a collision course with Earth.
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00:08:36,620 --> 00:08:39,379
Step two in our
planetary defense--
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know your enemy and build up
a picture of the asteroid.
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Apep was 1,800 feet wide,
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00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,379
five times the length of
a football field.
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00:08:50,413 --> 00:08:54,586
Its huge size bumps it up into
a new category of asteroids.
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00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:57,896
Apep was what we refer to as
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a PHA, a potentially
hazardous asteroid.
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00:09:03,482 --> 00:09:04,620
We're talking about something
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00:09:04,689 --> 00:09:06,482
that is a third of a mile across.
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00:09:06,482 --> 00:09:07,896
This is enormous.
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00:09:10,689 --> 00:09:15,586
An 1,800-foot-wide asteroid is
about 112 million metric tons.
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00:09:15,689 --> 00:09:19,689
[Rowe]
That's over 300 times the weight of the Empire State Building.
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Computer simulations
of the impact
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of an asteroid that massive
hitting a city
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00:09:29,689 --> 00:09:33,379
revealed extraordinary levels
of destruction.
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An 1,800-foot-diameter asteroid,
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that
would create a crater
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that's 3 or 4 miles across,
1,600 feet deep.
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00:09:44,379 --> 00:09:49,000
It would have a radiation
blast wave that
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00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:53,000
would set things on fire
for about 20 miles,
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00:09:53,068 --> 00:09:56,275
but no sooner would things be
lit on fire,
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there would be
a 500-mile-an-hour wind
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radiating out,
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leveling buildings,
knocking down trees,
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destroying highways.
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100 miles away, you'd still feel
a magnitude seven earthquake.
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It's not easy to say what is
going to kill you first.
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It's probably going to be
simply the flash of energy.
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There's so much heat from this
thing that you can be vaporized.
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If you somehow survived that,
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then there's going to be
the blast wave that will
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pulverize anything in its path.
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[Rowe] To build
an accurate simulation,
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the scientists used
more than size and mass.
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They also studied
its composition
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and the speed of its orbit.
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[Fast] You need to know what
an asteroid is made of,
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the speed of that asteroid,
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00:10:44,793 --> 00:10:47,482
how large it is in order
to understand,
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will it make it through
Earth's atmosphere,
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and what might the impact
effects be?
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00:10:54,620 --> 00:10:59,482
[Rowe] Asteroids vary in
composition and structure.
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Some are loose collections
of small rocks,
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others rocky and compact.
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The most dangerous
are metallic.
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A metal asteroid can be five
times as dense
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as some of
the lower density asteroids,
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and so for the same speeds
on the same orbits
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they pack way more punch
when it comes to an impact.
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00:11:26,586 --> 00:11:27,586
[Thaller] If you want
to see exactly
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00:11:27,689 --> 00:11:30,103
what a metallic asteroid
can do,
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go no farther than
Barringer Crater in Arizona.
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Now that crater is about
a mile across,
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and the meteor that made it was
only about 150 feet across.
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[Rowe] Arizona,
50,000 years ago.
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00:11:44,275 --> 00:11:48,482
The last major asteroid strike
on present day North America,
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00:11:50,413 --> 00:11:52,689
a tiny metallic space rock
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00:11:52,793 --> 00:11:56,793
hits the ground
at 25,000 miles an hour,
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00:11:56,862 --> 00:12:02,206
releasing energy equivalent to
2.5 million tons of TNT.
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00:12:04,379 --> 00:12:08,758
Scale that up to the size of
1,800-foot Apep,
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00:12:08,758 --> 00:12:12,275
and it would create a blast
wave the size of Delaware.
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00:12:13,275 --> 00:12:16,172
If Apep were a metal
asteroid, it would tear through
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00:12:16,172 --> 00:12:18,482
the atmosphere
like a cosmic bullet.
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00:12:18,586 --> 00:12:21,068
In a modern city,
without warning,
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00:12:21,068 --> 00:12:22,896
it could kill a lot of people.
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00:12:24,896 --> 00:12:27,103
But although
they're very dangerous,
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they're also very rare.
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00:12:32,379 --> 00:12:36,379
[Rowe] More common are rubble piles,
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00:12:36,482 --> 00:12:40,896
loose collections of small
rocks held together by gravity.
200
00:12:48,482 --> 00:12:50,896
Rubble pile is kind of
the perfect name for them,
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00:12:50,896 --> 00:12:53,068
but you can think of them as
like a literally
202
00:12:53,068 --> 00:12:56,620
a pile of stuff out of a dump
truck in your driveway,
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00:12:56,689 --> 00:12:59,103
but if you take that and you
put that in space,
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00:12:59,172 --> 00:13:01,172
they don't have much gravity
but they have enough to stay
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00:13:01,275 --> 00:13:02,482
bound to each other,
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00:13:02,586 --> 00:13:04,931
and that's your rubble
pile asteroid.
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00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:09,413
They are just barely holding
on to themselves.
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00:13:09,482 --> 00:13:13,000
If you were to come and just
apply sufficient gravity,
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00:13:13,103 --> 00:13:16,413
you could rip it apart.
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00:13:20,172 --> 00:13:23,000
[Rowe] Pressure and heat from
entering our atmosphere
211
00:13:23,103 --> 00:13:26,793
can also tear a rubble
pile asteroid to pieces,
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00:13:30,689 --> 00:13:33,758
but that can be just
as dangerous to a city below.
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00:13:36,586 --> 00:13:38,000
The breakup of an asteroid in
214
00:13:38,068 --> 00:13:40,517
the upper atmosphere is--
is pretty devastating.
215
00:13:40,586 --> 00:13:43,275
It's like a nuclear weapon
going off in the atmosphere,
216
00:13:43,275 --> 00:13:45,896
flattening buildings
and breaking windows.
217
00:13:45,896 --> 00:13:47,413
There are going
to be mass casualties
218
00:13:47,482 --> 00:13:48,655
from an event like that
219
00:13:48,689 --> 00:13:51,103
due to just the injuries
from flying glass and debris.
220
00:13:56,413 --> 00:14:01,103
[Rowe] To discover what type of
asteroid Apep belonged to,
221
00:14:01,172 --> 00:14:03,103
the planetary protection team
222
00:14:03,172 --> 00:14:06,206
train their telescopes
onto the space rock.
223
00:14:09,379 --> 00:14:12,172
Analysis revealed that Apep
was a rocky,
224
00:14:12,275 --> 00:14:16,379
carbonaceous chondrite asteroid,
or C-type for short.
225
00:14:18,896 --> 00:14:21,000
C-type asteroids like Apep
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00:14:21,068 --> 00:14:23,586
are less dense
than metal asteroids,
227
00:14:23,586 --> 00:14:26,620
but more solid than
rubble piles.
228
00:14:26,689 --> 00:14:29,000
If a big enough
C-type asteroid
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00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,103
penetrates the Earth's
atmosphere,
230
00:14:31,172 --> 00:14:34,172
it has the chance to make it
all the way down to the surface.
231
00:14:34,172 --> 00:14:37,000
It doesn't necessarily burn up
in the atmosphere.
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00:14:44,896 --> 00:14:48,275
[Rowe] Apep's size, mass, and
composition told us
233
00:14:48,379 --> 00:14:51,931
it would punch through our
atmosphere and hit the surface.
234
00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,413
The final piece of information
needed to accurately predict
235
00:14:59,482 --> 00:15:02,103
the true amount of damage
from the impact
236
00:15:02,172 --> 00:15:06,310
was Apep's kinetic energy,
the amount of energy
237
00:15:06,379 --> 00:15:08,758
the asteroid would punch
into the ground.
238
00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,862
The kinetic energy of an object
depends on the mass,
239
00:15:14,862 --> 00:15:18,379
and it depends even
more strongly on the speed.
240
00:15:18,482 --> 00:15:21,413
More mass creates more
kinetic energy,
241
00:15:21,482 --> 00:15:25,758
but more velocity will
increase the kinetic energy by
242
00:15:25,758 --> 00:15:27,310
a squared factor.
243
00:15:27,379 --> 00:15:30,689
For example, if something has
twice the velocity,
244
00:15:30,758 --> 00:15:34,000
it will have four times
the same energy.
245
00:15:34,103 --> 00:15:38,068
[Rowe] Scientists calculated how
much energy Apep,
246
00:15:38,068 --> 00:15:41,482
weighing in at 123 million tons
247
00:15:41,586 --> 00:15:44,068
and traveling at 40,000
miles an hour,
248
00:15:44,068 --> 00:15:47,379
would transfer into the Earth.
249
00:15:47,482 --> 00:15:49,482
So what kind of energies
were involved here?
250
00:15:49,482 --> 00:15:52,689
Uh, you know,
1,800-foot diameter asteroid.
251
00:15:52,758 --> 00:15:54,862
It's 112 million tons,
252
00:15:54,862 --> 00:15:57,758
and it's traveling
at 40,000 miles per hour.
253
00:15:57,758 --> 00:15:59,000
That's something
on the order of
254
00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:01,482
10 to the 19th
joules of energy,
255
00:16:01,586 --> 00:16:04,103
a one followed by 19 zeros.
256
00:16:12,103 --> 00:16:18,172
1.8 times 10 to the 19 joules
is equivalent to 5,000 megatons.
257
00:16:18,172 --> 00:16:19,862
Take a one megaton nuke,
258
00:16:19,862 --> 00:16:25,172
a substantial nuclear weapon,
and then blow up 5,000 of them.
259
00:16:25,275 --> 00:16:29,068
That is roughly the same
amount as all the nuclear
260
00:16:29,068 --> 00:16:30,206
weapons on Earth,
261
00:16:30,275 --> 00:16:31,689
detonating all at once.
262
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,862
[Rowe] A strike this large would
affect the whole planet.
263
00:16:42,586 --> 00:16:44,896
[Sutter] This would have
global impacts.
264
00:16:44,896 --> 00:16:46,310
We would have to deal with
the fallout,
265
00:16:46,379 --> 00:16:49,172
the literal fallout
from this event for--
266
00:16:49,172 --> 00:16:51,000
for potentially
1,000 years.
267
00:16:55,068 --> 00:16:57,413
[Rowe] Spring, 2023.
268
00:16:57,482 --> 00:17:00,068
We had two choices--
269
00:17:00,068 --> 00:17:04,068
do nothing and face
a planet-changing catastrophe,
270
00:17:04,068 --> 00:17:06,586
or fight back.
271
00:17:06,586 --> 00:17:09,000
We chose to take on Apep.
272
00:17:10,517 --> 00:17:13,379
It was the first time
in human history
273
00:17:13,482 --> 00:17:16,931
that we might actually be able
to prevent a natural disaster
274
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,517
from happening.
275
00:17:18,586 --> 00:17:22,000
We could plan and launch
a response mission,
276
00:17:22,068 --> 00:17:23,517
so we don't have
to get out of the way.
277
00:17:23,586 --> 00:17:25,793
Make it get
out of the way instead.
278
00:17:28,689 --> 00:17:31,586
[Rowe] The mission's objective
was simple--
279
00:17:31,586 --> 00:17:35,310
stop the asteroid,
and save the world.
280
00:17:37,586 --> 00:17:40,379
We can't superglue
an earthquake fault shut.
281
00:17:40,482 --> 00:17:43,310
We can't cork volcanoes,
282
00:17:43,379 --> 00:17:46,103
but planning
for an asteroid impact
283
00:17:46,172 --> 00:17:47,931
is something
we really could do.
284
00:17:59,068 --> 00:18:01,275
[Rowe] June 2023.
285
00:18:03,275 --> 00:18:08,379
A large asteroid
was headed towards Earth.
286
00:18:08,448 --> 00:18:12,793
It was predicted to strike on
November 4, 2029.
287
00:18:20,137 --> 00:18:21,275
To protect our planet,
288
00:18:21,275 --> 00:18:29,068
A team of scientists plan to
deflect the asteroid.
289
00:18:29,137 --> 00:18:31,379
[Sutter]
An 1,800-foot wide asteroid
290
00:18:31,448 --> 00:18:33,172
was headed towards the Earth.
291
00:18:33,241 --> 00:18:38,275
We needed it to go in
literally any other direction.
292
00:18:38,344 --> 00:18:41,344
[Rowe] So how could we
push Apep off course?
293
00:18:42,862 --> 00:18:48,586
Scientists found a clue in
the asteroid belt.
294
00:18:51,586 --> 00:18:55,103
Sometimes the lumps
of space debris collide
295
00:18:55,172 --> 00:18:58,241
and change their trajectory.
296
00:18:58,241 --> 00:19:03,379
Maybe we could replicate this
and deflect Apep.
297
00:19:03,482 --> 00:19:05,896
We could try to deflect the
asteroid and change its orbit
298
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,275
so that it actually
misses the Earth.
299
00:19:08,379 --> 00:19:10,103
[Sutter]
If you do it early enough,
300
00:19:10,172 --> 00:19:14,103
it may not be much, less than
half a millimeter per second,
301
00:19:14,172 --> 00:19:16,655
but that is enough.
302
00:19:16,655 --> 00:19:21,482
These asteroids travel for
millions of miles, and so over
303
00:19:21,586 --> 00:19:23,344
the course of days, weeks,
304
00:19:23,344 --> 00:19:27,689
months, and years, it will have
a radically different orbit.
305
00:19:28,758 --> 00:19:30,275
[Rowe] Sounds simple.
306
00:19:30,344 --> 00:19:33,689
Send up a rocket with
a robotic space probe,
307
00:19:33,758 --> 00:19:38,275
travel millions of miles,
and knock Apep away from Earth.
308
00:19:39,551 --> 00:19:40,482
Piece of cake.
309
00:19:42,551 --> 00:19:43,655
In the movies,
310
00:19:43,689 --> 00:19:45,896
when there's a threatening
asteroid that's found,
311
00:19:45,965 --> 00:19:49,655
there's always a rocket on
the pad ready to go after that,
312
00:19:49,655 --> 00:19:52,482
and it's not the case
in real life.
313
00:19:52,551 --> 00:19:54,862
It takes years
to design the mission,
314
00:19:54,862 --> 00:19:57,103
to build the satellite,
to launch it,
315
00:19:57,172 --> 00:19:58,551
and then it has to get there,
316
00:19:58,551 --> 00:20:01,586
and that might be millions
of miles away from Earth.
317
00:20:02,689 --> 00:20:05,068
[Rowe] Fortunately,
Earth had a head start.
318
00:20:06,379 --> 00:20:08,689
We detected Apep early,
319
00:20:11,068 --> 00:20:15,758
and we'd already built
an asteroid deflector called
320
00:20:15,758 --> 00:20:18,965
the Double Asteroid
Redirection Test,
321
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,172
or DART for short.
322
00:20:23,172 --> 00:20:27,793
In 2021 we sent DART
6.8 million miles
323
00:20:27,862 --> 00:20:31,379
to rendezvous with
an asteroid called Didymos.
324
00:20:32,586 --> 00:20:35,172
Didymos posed
no threat to Earth,
325
00:20:35,275 --> 00:20:37,655
but allowed us
to test the technology.
326
00:20:39,172 --> 00:20:40,586
[Thaller]
The asteroid called Didymos
327
00:20:40,655 --> 00:20:43,896
has a small moon asteroid
going around it.
328
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,000
The point of the DART mission
329
00:20:45,068 --> 00:20:47,896
was to send an impactor
into this little moon
330
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,793
and see how much we nudge
it off the orbit that it's in.
331
00:20:52,379 --> 00:20:54,655
[Rowe] Lessons learned
from DART
332
00:20:54,655 --> 00:20:56,896
would inspire a new mission.
333
00:20:59,758 --> 00:21:02,448
November 2025.
334
00:21:02,448 --> 00:21:05,137
We launched
the DAAFE mission--
335
00:21:05,137 --> 00:21:09,758
deflect Apep
away from Earth.
336
00:21:09,758 --> 00:21:13,068
This wasn't a test run to
a safe asteroid.
337
00:21:13,137 --> 00:21:16,655
This was the real deal,
a mission to save our planet.
338
00:21:16,655 --> 00:21:20,793
It was an enormous
technical challenge,
339
00:21:20,862 --> 00:21:23,689
and we had no idea
if it would work.
340
00:21:24,896 --> 00:21:28,689
When you think about
a spacecraft going from Earth
341
00:21:28,758 --> 00:21:31,793
millions of miles away
to hit an asteroid
342
00:21:31,862 --> 00:21:33,448
at an exact point
in time,
343
00:21:33,448 --> 00:21:34,655
at an exact point in space.
344
00:21:34,655 --> 00:21:37,034
It's really
the ultimate bullseye.
345
00:21:37,103 --> 00:21:40,793
It's like trying to hit one
bullet with another bullet
346
00:21:40,896 --> 00:21:43,034
launched from the other
side of a continent.
347
00:21:45,379 --> 00:21:47,379
[Rowe] November 2028.
348
00:21:48,482 --> 00:21:53,689
After three years in space,
DAAFE arrived at Apep.
349
00:21:56,137 --> 00:21:58,034
This was our last chance.
350
00:21:58,103 --> 00:21:59,689
This was our only chance.
351
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:03,931
[Rowe] The kinetic impactor
352
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,896
smashed into Apep
at 14,000 miles an hour.
353
00:22:14,482 --> 00:22:17,896
On Earth, telescopes and radar
tracked the collision.
354
00:22:19,482 --> 00:22:20,655
Did it work?
355
00:22:20,655 --> 00:22:24,172
Did we push the asteroid
off course?
356
00:22:24,241 --> 00:22:26,172
At first glance, the
mission worked.
357
00:22:26,241 --> 00:22:29,482
We deflected Apep away
from us.
358
00:22:31,689 --> 00:22:33,344
[Rowe] It looked like the
mission worked.
359
00:22:36,482 --> 00:22:38,344
[Plait] As an astronomer,
and, you know,
360
00:22:38,344 --> 00:22:40,586
a human who has to live
on this planet,
361
00:22:40,655 --> 00:22:42,000
I was very happy, right?
362
00:22:42,068 --> 00:22:44,689
We've just literally
saved the world.
363
00:22:44,758 --> 00:22:47,344
[Rowe] But the happiness
was short-lived.
364
00:22:48,482 --> 00:22:49,689
There was a problem.
365
00:22:49,793 --> 00:22:53,482
The collision had pushed Apep
away from Earth,
366
00:22:56,965 --> 00:23:01,379
but it also sheared off
a 300-foot chunk of rock.
367
00:23:03,034 --> 00:23:07,103
This smaller asteroid,
called Apep 2.0,
368
00:23:07,172 --> 00:23:08,896
could still be
a significant threat.
369
00:23:11,965 --> 00:23:16,793
A 300-foot chunk of rock
is still very, very large.
370
00:23:16,862 --> 00:23:18,379
300 feet wide.
371
00:23:18,448 --> 00:23:20,689
That's almost
a football field.
372
00:23:21,793 --> 00:23:23,655
[Plesko] So the important things
we needed to know--
373
00:23:23,655 --> 00:23:25,275
was it going to hit us?
374
00:23:26,275 --> 00:23:28,482
And if so, where is it going
to hit us?
375
00:23:30,586 --> 00:23:34,758
[Rowe] March 2029,
we got our answer.
376
00:23:34,758 --> 00:23:37,000
Its point of impact--
377
00:23:37,034 --> 00:23:39,689
The east coast
of the United States,
378
00:23:41,275 --> 00:23:44,482
with New York City
in the firing line.
379
00:23:47,172 --> 00:23:49,758
SUTTER: A smaller chunk headed
for New York City.
380
00:23:50,896 --> 00:23:53,758
This was
the worst-case scenario.
381
00:24:04,482 --> 00:24:05,655
I want to emphasize,
382
00:24:05,655 --> 00:24:08,000
there's no asteroid
headed toward New York tonight.
383
00:24:08,034 --> 00:24:10,896
This is just
a discussion about
384
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,896
what this process would
be like.
385
00:24:21,103 --> 00:24:22,379
[Rowe] In 2028,
386
00:24:22,448 --> 00:24:25,448
we tried to deflect
Apep away from Earth.
387
00:24:27,689 --> 00:24:32,275
The mission wasn't
a complete success.
388
00:24:32,379 --> 00:24:34,275
Yes, we managed to
actually divert
389
00:24:34,344 --> 00:24:37,034
the large asteroid away from
hitting the Earth,
390
00:24:37,103 --> 00:24:39,896
but in doing so, we broke off
a clump big enough
391
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,862
to be very dangerous heading
toward the eastern seaboard.
392
00:24:45,172 --> 00:24:49,862
[Rowe] June 2029,
five months to impact.
393
00:24:51,896 --> 00:24:54,379
The future looked bleak for
New York,
394
00:24:54,482 --> 00:24:56,275
but it wasn't the time
to give up.
395
00:24:57,551 --> 00:24:59,172
They reassessed an idea
396
00:24:59,241 --> 00:25:05,482
first suggested to destroy
the original 1,800-foot Apep,
397
00:25:05,586 --> 00:25:07,000
a nuclear strike.
398
00:25:09,344 --> 00:25:10,793
It worked in Armageddon.
399
00:25:10,862 --> 00:25:12,793
Maybe it would work in
real life.
400
00:25:14,137 --> 00:25:17,793
However, studies revealed
that nuking an asteroid
401
00:25:17,896 --> 00:25:22,000
wasn't as simple as it looks
in a Hollywood movie.
402
00:25:22,034 --> 00:25:23,000
Hey, let's blow it up.
403
00:25:23,068 --> 00:25:24,172
Let's nuke it, right?
404
00:25:24,241 --> 00:25:26,172
Well, instead of one
big problem,
405
00:25:26,241 --> 00:25:28,034
now you have
slightly smaller problems,
406
00:25:28,103 --> 00:25:30,448
and they're radioactive,
by the way.
407
00:25:30,448 --> 00:25:31,689
So you don't want to do that.
408
00:25:33,482 --> 00:25:36,034
[Rowe]
Computer simulations revealed
409
00:25:36,103 --> 00:25:37,689
that even the world's largest
410
00:25:37,758 --> 00:25:41,896
nuclear weapon had only
1 percent of the energy needed
411
00:25:41,965 --> 00:25:45,793
to destroy the original
1,800-foot Apep.
412
00:25:47,689 --> 00:25:51,586
We needed the world's most
powerful nuclear weapon
413
00:25:51,689 --> 00:25:56,241
and 99 of its best friends,
launch them all simultaneously,
414
00:25:56,241 --> 00:25:59,758
and have them simultaneously
hit the asteroid.
415
00:25:59,758 --> 00:26:03,137
It was simply beyond our
technological capabilities.
416
00:26:05,862 --> 00:26:08,000
[Rowe] Fortunately,
thanks to the DAAFE mission,
417
00:26:08,034 --> 00:26:12,068
we only had to take out
the 300-foot Apep 2.0.
418
00:26:17,655 --> 00:26:20,689
Could we blow the smaller
asteroid out of the sky?
419
00:26:24,655 --> 00:26:28,172
Maybe, but launching
a nuclear Hail Mary
420
00:26:28,275 --> 00:26:30,034
would be
very controversial.
421
00:26:32,034 --> 00:26:36,689
Nuclear devices
are the most powerful,
422
00:26:36,758 --> 00:26:38,379
really, one of the
most emotional
423
00:26:38,448 --> 00:26:41,448
things that humans have
ever invented.
424
00:26:45,275 --> 00:26:48,862
[Rivkin] They are the most
powerful tool in our toolbox.
425
00:26:48,862 --> 00:26:51,896
We've got a hammer,
and it's a very big hammer,
426
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,275
but there are a lot of
concerns with them,
427
00:26:55,379 --> 00:26:58,793
so they cannot be
tested in space,
428
00:26:58,896 --> 00:27:00,482
according to international law.
429
00:27:02,068 --> 00:27:05,275
[Rowe] Without being able
to test nukes in space,
430
00:27:05,379 --> 00:27:07,172
they were considered
too big a risk,
431
00:27:11,655 --> 00:27:15,689
but New York had one final
potential savior,
432
00:27:16,965 --> 00:27:18,689
the Earth itself.
433
00:27:22,448 --> 00:27:25,482
2013, Chelyabinsk, Russia.
434
00:27:27,137 --> 00:27:29,793
An asteroid blew up
in the atmosphere.
435
00:27:32,137 --> 00:27:34,275
It didn't make it all the way
to the surface,
436
00:27:34,344 --> 00:27:37,000
and the people in Chelyabinsk
are very lucky because of that.
437
00:27:38,586 --> 00:27:41,586
[Rowe] The 60-foot-wide
Chelyabinsk asteroid
438
00:27:41,689 --> 00:27:43,689
was rocky like Apep,
439
00:27:44,482 --> 00:27:46,551
and it moved
at a similar velocity,
440
00:27:46,551 --> 00:27:48,551
around 40,000 miles an hour,
441
00:27:50,379 --> 00:27:56,137
but it met its match when it
entered Earth's atmosphere.
442
00:27:56,137 --> 00:27:58,172
Earth's atmosphere
doesn't look like much.
443
00:27:58,275 --> 00:28:00,172
You think, oh, it's just air,
it doesn't matter,
444
00:28:00,275 --> 00:28:02,896
but all of those molecules
actually exert pressure
445
00:28:02,965 --> 00:28:04,379
on the front edge
of the asteroid,
446
00:28:04,482 --> 00:28:07,793
slowing it down
and heating it up.
447
00:28:07,862 --> 00:28:09,017
Rock heated up
448
00:28:09,017 --> 00:28:13,275
and began to crumble and explode
as it came through.
449
00:28:13,379 --> 00:28:16,068
[Rowe] The midair explosion,
called an airburst,
450
00:28:16,137 --> 00:28:20,689
released more energy
than 440,000 tons of TNT.
451
00:28:27,034 --> 00:28:29,275
The shockwave traveled
100 miles,
452
00:28:30,344 --> 00:28:32,862
damaging 7,000 buildings
453
00:28:32,862 --> 00:28:34,793
and injuring 1,500 people.
454
00:28:36,241 --> 00:28:38,758
But a ground strike
hitting a city
455
00:28:38,758 --> 00:28:40,034
would have been a lot worse.
456
00:28:47,862 --> 00:28:52,034
Apep 2.0 was five times larger
than the Chelyabinsk Rock.
457
00:28:54,241 --> 00:28:55,896
Would it break up during its
458
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,379
10-second trip down
through the atmosphere,
459
00:28:59,482 --> 00:29:03,896
or would it pierce
right through?
460
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,034
The planetary defense team
ran simulations.
461
00:29:09,172 --> 00:29:12,551
As that comes through
Earth's atmosphere,
462
00:29:12,551 --> 00:29:15,482
some of that hot air can get
into the cracks.
463
00:29:16,586 --> 00:29:20,000
[Rowe] Friction and pressure
would heat Apep 2.0's
464
00:29:20,068 --> 00:29:23,379
surface to thousands of
degrees Fahrenheit.
465
00:29:24,655 --> 00:29:27,482
At those temperatures,
even rock burns.
466
00:29:28,862 --> 00:29:32,000
We would see this
flaming monster
467
00:29:32,068 --> 00:29:36,275
of death coming racing
through our atmosphere.
468
00:29:36,344 --> 00:29:39,689
There are gonna be pieces of
debris vaporizing
469
00:29:39,793 --> 00:29:41,068
and coming off of it.
470
00:29:41,137 --> 00:29:43,172
So you get these flashes of
light that happen
471
00:29:43,275 --> 00:29:44,896
one after another-- pop, pop,
pop, pop, pop, pop, pop,
472
00:29:44,965 --> 00:29:46,448
as these things
are blowing up.
473
00:29:52,172 --> 00:29:53,586
[Rowe]
The computer simulations
474
00:29:53,655 --> 00:29:55,551
showed that the extra bulk of
475
00:29:55,551 --> 00:29:59,275
Apep 2.0 would stop it from
blowing up.
476
00:30:02,586 --> 00:30:05,344
Some of the asteroid would
blast away,
477
00:30:05,344 --> 00:30:07,448
but most of the space rock
478
00:30:07,448 --> 00:30:11,137
would reach the
Earth's surface.
479
00:30:11,137 --> 00:30:13,344
So that close to the
actual impact,
480
00:30:13,344 --> 00:30:15,758
we pretty much just had to
hunker down and take it.
481
00:30:19,103 --> 00:30:21,965
[Rowe] The prospects for
New York City were grim.
482
00:30:23,586 --> 00:30:25,862
It was facing annihilation.
483
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,551
[Rowe] October 2029.
484
00:30:42,551 --> 00:30:46,758
Three weeks to impact.
485
00:30:46,758 --> 00:30:50,172
For the citizens of the New York
metropolitan area,
486
00:30:50,241 --> 00:30:55,172
there was only one goal--
Get out of the firing line.
487
00:30:59,965 --> 00:31:01,034
Now we had to have
488
00:31:01,034 --> 00:31:04,379
the plans in place
to evacuate these cities.
489
00:31:04,448 --> 00:31:08,896
It was a major emergency for
New York and its citizens.
490
00:31:08,965 --> 00:31:11,586
Time to move out of the way.
491
00:31:12,965 --> 00:31:15,862
[Rowe] To work out who
should evacuate and to where,
492
00:31:15,862 --> 00:31:18,000
Scientists ran detailed projections
493
00:31:18,034 --> 00:31:21,793
of the potential blast area.
494
00:31:21,862 --> 00:31:24,862
There's an ellipse there that
we call the hazard ellipse that
495
00:31:24,862 --> 00:31:29,000
says somewhere in this area is
where the asteroid will hit.
496
00:31:29,034 --> 00:31:30,862
That means there's
a little wiggle room
497
00:31:30,862 --> 00:31:33,482
and a range of areas
that are in danger.
498
00:31:35,379 --> 00:31:38,551
[Rowe] Based on the hazard
ellipse projections,
499
00:31:38,551 --> 00:31:41,482
the government issued
evacuation orders
500
00:31:41,551 --> 00:31:44,137
for the tri-state area,
501
00:31:44,137 --> 00:31:46,896
and as far south
as Philadelphia.
502
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:51,000
It was the biggest evacuation
in US history.
503
00:31:51,068 --> 00:31:53,965
Millions were displaced.
504
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,379
It was physically horrific.
505
00:31:58,689 --> 00:32:01,586
I live in the New York
metropolitan area.
506
00:32:01,689 --> 00:32:04,586
It was horrible for me and my
family and my friends,
507
00:32:04,689 --> 00:32:09,172
but we can't just sit here and
cross our fingers and hope that
508
00:32:09,241 --> 00:32:10,689
we don't get struck.
509
00:32:12,172 --> 00:32:14,689
[Rowe] The freeways out of the
city were jammed.
510
00:32:19,137 --> 00:32:21,379
Trains were packed.
511
00:32:21,448 --> 00:32:24,172
Over 23 million
people evacuated,
512
00:32:25,275 --> 00:32:27,965
leaving behind
a deserted city.
513
00:32:30,551 --> 00:32:33,103
Computer models
show that the epicenter
514
00:32:33,172 --> 00:32:35,172
of the strike
would be Manhattan.
515
00:32:38,344 --> 00:32:42,586
The blast would reduce
the city to rubble and ash.
516
00:32:43,586 --> 00:32:46,689
There would be a one-mile-wide
crater resulting from it,
517
00:32:46,758 --> 00:32:48,758
so deep that
it would actually take
518
00:32:48,758 --> 00:32:52,137
the entire subway system and
turn it upside down and lay it
519
00:32:52,137 --> 00:32:55,068
onto the rim of the crater.
520
00:32:55,137 --> 00:32:57,482
You would have
a magnitude 5 earthquake
521
00:32:57,586 --> 00:32:59,655
at even six miles away
from that,
522
00:32:59,655 --> 00:33:01,793
and there would be
a big air blast,
523
00:33:01,896 --> 00:33:03,689
400-mile-an-hour winds.
524
00:33:05,172 --> 00:33:07,793
Something as light as a pencil
could be a lethal weapon
525
00:33:07,862 --> 00:33:09,586
when picked up by a shock wave
like that.
526
00:33:11,172 --> 00:33:15,137
As the crater is blasting out
and excavating itself,
527
00:33:15,137 --> 00:33:20,862
there would be little blobs of
molten rock that get thrown out
528
00:33:20,862 --> 00:33:23,689
in this wave, going faster than
the speed of sound,
529
00:33:25,655 --> 00:33:27,068
Like drops a fiery rain,
530
00:33:27,137 --> 00:33:30,000
if you will, landing back miles
away from the crater.
531
00:33:35,137 --> 00:33:37,172
[Rowe]
The city would be on fire.
532
00:33:39,655 --> 00:33:42,965
So, um, there's just
no upside to this.
533
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:43,896
There's nothing good.
534
00:33:43,896 --> 00:33:46,275
It's just all
from bad to horrific.
535
00:33:48,275 --> 00:33:50,896
[Rowe]
But New York is by the ocean.
536
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:55,586
What would happen if Apep 2.0
hit the sea?
537
00:33:59,965 --> 00:34:03,344
Detailed simulations have
revealed two very
538
00:34:03,344 --> 00:34:04,482
different outcomes
539
00:34:04,586 --> 00:34:08,172
for an asteroid hitting
the ocean at high speeds.
540
00:34:11,793 --> 00:34:14,862
SUTTER: If a giant asteroid
strikes the deep ocean,
541
00:34:14,862 --> 00:34:17,000
less than 1 percent
of its energy
542
00:34:17,034 --> 00:34:18,793
gets converted into waves.
543
00:34:18,896 --> 00:34:21,137
Those waves quickly disperse.
544
00:34:21,137 --> 00:34:23,896
They quickly lose energy as
they travel.
545
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,793
By the time they reach
the coast, it might just be
546
00:34:27,896 --> 00:34:28,896
a little ripple,
547
00:34:28,896 --> 00:34:30,896
you might not even be able to
surf on it.
548
00:34:37,034 --> 00:34:39,862
[Rowe] If the asteroid hit
shallow coastal waters,
549
00:34:42,241 --> 00:34:45,068
it could cause significant
damage along the shoreline.
550
00:34:46,862 --> 00:34:50,689
If an asteroid, the size of
Apep hits the continental shelf
551
00:34:50,758 --> 00:34:52,689
where the water is
relatively shallow,
552
00:34:52,793 --> 00:34:55,862
then it could potentially
cause a tsunami.
553
00:35:00,068 --> 00:35:02,172
[Rowe] But that would just be
the start of the problems.
554
00:35:05,586 --> 00:35:07,172
With a shallow water impactor,
555
00:35:07,275 --> 00:35:10,586
huge amounts of steam are
generated basically by
556
00:35:10,655 --> 00:35:14,000
the energy of that impactor
vaporizing all the water.
557
00:35:14,068 --> 00:35:16,275
Well, all the water is then put
up into the atmosphere,
558
00:35:16,379 --> 00:35:19,655
and water is a really good
greenhouse gas.
559
00:35:19,655 --> 00:35:21,482
So you have warming from
the launch of water
560
00:35:21,586 --> 00:35:22,620
up into the atmosphere.
561
00:35:22,655 --> 00:35:25,172
You have cooling
from all of the ash and dust.
562
00:35:31,586 --> 00:35:32,655
[Rowe]
A short bout of warming
563
00:35:32,655 --> 00:35:35,000
would be followed
by a brutal winter.
564
00:35:36,551 --> 00:35:39,172
Crops would fail.
565
00:35:39,241 --> 00:35:45,172
This impact has so many
horrible follow-on consequences.
566
00:35:45,241 --> 00:35:48,137
That tells us how difficult
it would be to--
567
00:35:48,137 --> 00:35:51,034
to rebuild from an event
like this.
568
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:56,000
[Rowe] The eastern seaboard
569
00:35:56,068 --> 00:35:59,379
would suffer a serious economic downturn.
570
00:35:59,482 --> 00:36:01,551
It would take decades
to recover.
571
00:36:06,586 --> 00:36:08,482
November 3rd, 2029.
572
00:36:09,896 --> 00:36:11,896
One day until impact.
573
00:36:13,793 --> 00:36:17,034
The space rock was just
400,000 miles away,
574
00:36:18,034 --> 00:36:23,379
and traveling 13 times faster
than an F-15 fighter jet.
575
00:36:23,448 --> 00:36:27,758
It was first a dim star,
and then a brighter star,
576
00:36:27,758 --> 00:36:30,551
and then in the hours before,
you can actually see it
577
00:36:30,551 --> 00:36:31,689
approaching the Earth.
578
00:36:33,241 --> 00:36:36,068
[Rowe]
New York looked outmatched.
579
00:36:36,137 --> 00:36:39,068
It looked like Apep
would win,
580
00:36:39,137 --> 00:36:42,000
but this was not the end of
the game.
581
00:36:42,034 --> 00:36:44,793
Earth had one final card
to play.
582
00:36:58,655 --> 00:37:00,758
[Rowe]
November 4th, 2029.
583
00:37:02,689 --> 00:37:06,517
The 300-foot Apep 2.0
reached Earth.
584
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:10,551
The space rock pierced our
585
00:37:10,620 --> 00:37:14,379
atmosphere and hurtled
towards the surface.
586
00:37:27,275 --> 00:37:31,206
Then the asteroid passed
over Manhattan,
587
00:37:33,586 --> 00:37:36,241
over Brooklyn,
588
00:37:36,310 --> 00:37:37,965
and over Coney Island.
589
00:37:40,275 --> 00:37:44,620
It hit deep ocean,
350 miles off the coast.
590
00:37:51,413 --> 00:37:54,965
Apep 2.0 missed New York.
591
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:55,896
But how?
592
00:37:59,517 --> 00:38:01,413
Our 7-year battle with
the asteroid
593
00:38:01,482 --> 00:38:04,344
resolved in a matter
of seconds
594
00:38:04,413 --> 00:38:07,413
thanks to orbital dynamics.
595
00:38:08,517 --> 00:38:10,793
The orbit of the asteroid
and the orbit of the Earth
596
00:38:10,862 --> 00:38:14,620
and the way the Earth spins in
this great cosmic ballet
597
00:38:14,689 --> 00:38:15,965
means that
598
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:19,448
a few seconds earlier or later
makes the difference between
599
00:38:19,517 --> 00:38:21,620
hitting the ocean
and hitting land.
600
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,448
[Rowe] Earth rotates at
1,000 miles an hour
601
00:38:26,896 --> 00:38:31,758
and orbits the sun at close
to 65,000 miles an hour.
602
00:38:31,758 --> 00:38:35,896
Apep orbited
at 40,000 miles an hour,
603
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:40,655
but Apep 2.0 traveled
fractionally slower.
604
00:38:42,482 --> 00:38:45,379
The impact of the DAAFE mission
that sheared off
605
00:38:45,448 --> 00:38:50,586
the 300-foot chunk of rock
had also slowed it down.
606
00:38:50,655 --> 00:38:52,068
Slowing down Apep
607
00:38:52,137 --> 00:38:54,379
changed when it's going to
intersect the Earth.
608
00:38:54,448 --> 00:38:56,275
So New York spun out of
the crosshairs.
609
00:39:00,896 --> 00:39:05,241
[Rowe] Apep 2.0, hit
the ocean and exploded,
610
00:39:05,310 --> 00:39:06,896
breaking up instantly.
611
00:39:09,310 --> 00:39:12,655
The strike threw up a wall of
water into the air,
612
00:39:12,655 --> 00:39:14,896
followed by huge clouds
of steam.
613
00:39:16,689 --> 00:39:20,172
The impact created small
surface waves that quickly
614
00:39:20,241 --> 00:39:21,379
died away.
615
00:39:22,793 --> 00:39:26,896
It's like doing a gigantic
interplanetary belly flop.
616
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,965
It evaporates, it obliterates,
and it generates
617
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,689
an enormous amount of steam,
and it sets up shock waves.
618
00:39:32,793 --> 00:39:34,482
All that energy is still released,
619
00:39:34,551 --> 00:39:37,655
but the ocean is capable of
absorbing it.
620
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,793
[Rowe] New York dodged the
bullet and escaped unscathed
621
00:39:46,482 --> 00:39:49,620
thanks to the
dedication, ingenuity,
622
00:39:49,689 --> 00:39:57,413
and enterprise of a global
team of scientists.
623
00:39:59,689 --> 00:40:03,896
Apep was an
imaginary asteroid,
624
00:40:03,965 --> 00:40:07,896
but there are many potentially
hazardous space rocks out there.
625
00:40:10,655 --> 00:40:13,482
Thankfully,
this was a fictional scenario.
626
00:40:13,551 --> 00:40:17,068
It's a thought exercise, but
it's informed by our real,
627
00:40:17,137 --> 00:40:20,172
actual knowledge we've gained
over the years of dealing with,
628
00:40:20,241 --> 00:40:23,103
you know, potential close
approaches and the hazard from
629
00:40:23,172 --> 00:40:27,448
real asteroids that we actually
know about.
630
00:40:27,517 --> 00:40:31,068
Asteroid research is a good
insurance policy
631
00:40:31,137 --> 00:40:32,758
for our species.
632
00:40:32,758 --> 00:40:36,241
Hopefully we will never need
to carry these things out
633
00:40:36,310 --> 00:40:37,758
for real.
634
00:40:37,758 --> 00:40:40,068
[Rowe] Large
asteroid strikes are rare,
635
00:40:41,517 --> 00:40:43,241
but we cannot be complacent.
636
00:40:48,482 --> 00:40:51,896
The most important thing to
do in planetary defense
637
00:40:51,965 --> 00:40:53,620
is to find them early.
638
00:40:53,689 --> 00:40:55,965
If we find them early, we have
a chance to predict
639
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,793
the possible impacts and we
have a chance to mitigate them.
640
00:41:03,965 --> 00:41:05,793
[Rowe]
Our technology is improving,
641
00:41:07,241 --> 00:41:10,620
so we can detect incoming
space rocks earlier,
642
00:41:12,862 --> 00:41:15,413
but we need to be vigilant,
643
00:41:15,482 --> 00:41:19,965
because the threat from
asteroids is not going away.
644
00:41:21,241 --> 00:41:22,758
Apart from climate change,
645
00:41:22,758 --> 00:41:26,344
asteroid strikes are, in my
opinion, the most dangerous
646
00:41:26,413 --> 00:41:27,793
thing to life on Earth.
647
00:41:29,034 --> 00:41:31,000
[Plait] A lot of the times
the question I get is,
648
00:41:31,034 --> 00:41:33,000
"What are the chances of this
happening?"
649
00:41:33,034 --> 00:41:35,793
And they don't like the answer
because I say 100 percent.
650
00:41:37,896 --> 00:41:39,103
It takes time.
651
00:41:39,103 --> 00:41:42,172
It may not be for a week,
a month, a year, a century.
652
00:41:42,241 --> 00:41:44,655
But studying these asteroids
informs us on
653
00:41:44,793 --> 00:41:46,620
what we can do
to prevent an impact.
654
00:41:48,172 --> 00:41:50,448
There are a lot of natural
disasters that we can do
655
00:41:50,517 --> 00:41:52,620
nothing about--
earthquakes, hurricanes,
656
00:41:52,689 --> 00:41:53,586
that sort of thing.
657
00:41:53,620 --> 00:41:55,793
Here is
something way more devastating
658
00:41:55,862 --> 00:41:59,620
than any of those,
and we can prevent them.
659
00:41:59,689 --> 00:42:01,793
So we have to keep our eyes on
660
00:42:01,896 --> 00:42:04,000
the prize and our eyes on
the skies.
52417
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