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About the production of thousands of
Russian drones... Not so long ago,
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Russian propaganda released a report from its
Lancet barrage munitions production facility with
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the false narrative that its production capacity
is tens of thousands of Lancets per month.
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Russian top propagandists gave
incredible production figures of
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45,000 Lancets per month, and a number
of Russian media even claimed 200,000.
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Although the report was a psychological operation,
panic-mongers in many countries fell for this lie.
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Now, as the information space begins
to actively discuss the story about
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the Shahed-136 kamikaze drone factory, there
are reports that this factory will be able
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to produce thousands of kamikaze drones per
month. But there is a nuance here as well.
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First of all, Russia does not have the
technical and technological capability
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to produce thousands of drones of any
type per month in a fully closed cycle.
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For example, back in October 2021, Putin
said that the Russian Defense Ministry has
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2,000 various drones in service. He said it
proudly, as if it was a mega-achievement.
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That is, during the time without hyper-sanctions
and active hostilities, the level of a full-scale
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war, in a relatively working economy, only
2 thousand different drones were assembled.
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Not 20 thousand or 10 thousand, but 2
thousand over several years of production
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by different companies and different types
in a country that was preparing for invasion.
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Second, even in Iran, as of the fall of 2022
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an average of 50 Shahed-136 drones
were being produced. By early 2023,
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it was able to approach a production
rate of up to 100 Shahed-136s per month.
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This is production in a country where everything
for this process is set up and fine-tuned.
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Thirdly. From words to numbers, if we talk about
the Lancet, their every strike is videotaped and
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shown on all propaganda platforms with foaming
at the mouth and euphoria. But how many such
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videos are published per month? 40 thousand,
maybe 20 thousand or 2 thousand, at least 200?
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Less than 100 videos of Lancet strikes
are published in open sources in a month.
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Now let's approach the question empirically.
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In May 2023, 655 Russian various drones
were shot down, 377 of which are Shahed-136.
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That is, 278 of them are different types of
drones of Russian and non-Russian manufacture.
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In June, 414 drones were shot
down, of which 166 are Shahed-136,
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that is - 248 of them are different
types of Russian and not only production.
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In July, 448 drones were shot
down, 193 of them Shahed-136,
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that is - 255 of them are different types of
Russian and not only of Russian production.
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What conclusions can be drawn from this?
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As we can see, from month to month, the
average number of non-Shahed-136s shot down,
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as well as Orlan, Lancet and others,
is practically unchanged. These are
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reconnaissance drones, these are drones with
drop containers, these are barrage munitions,
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and the sum total of all of them
every month is about the same amount.
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Therefore, when someone starts another
conversation about the fact that Russia
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can produce tens of thousands of drones and
that soon Ukraine will be attacked daily
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by hundreds of Shahed-136 and Lancet...
Well, you know what to do in that case.
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Sometimes an panic-mongers is
worse than a monkey with a grenade.
5033
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