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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:00,179 --> 00:00:03,259 after this video you will likely tell me 2 00:00:03,259 --> 00:00:05,270 stick to aircraft 3 00:00:05,270 --> 00:00:09,260 [Music] 4 00:00:09,260 --> 00:00:11,880 in this video I'm going to do something 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,580 that I rarely do Straight from aircraft 6 00:00:14,580 --> 00:00:17,340 into General military I have been asked 7 00:00:17,340 --> 00:00:19,380 to discuss the situation of Ukrainian 8 00:00:19,380 --> 00:00:22,320 offensive and give my opinion I'm 9 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,300 flattered by the fact that someone 10 00:00:24,300 --> 00:00:27,420 actually values my opinion so I think I 11 00:00:27,420 --> 00:00:29,039 might give a small contribution to the 12 00:00:29,039 --> 00:00:31,019 debate in particular this is another 13 00:00:31,019 --> 00:00:33,840 subject that is highly divisive opinions 14 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,260 range from ukrainians will get to Moscow 15 00:00:37,260 --> 00:00:40,320 soon to the Russians will soon be at the 16 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,320 Polish border as usual reality is more 17 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,020 than once than that and an interesting 18 00:00:46,020 --> 00:00:49,559 Nuance is that this is not a sport match 19 00:00:49,559 --> 00:00:52,980 this is not a Judiciary trial where low 20 00:00:52,980 --> 00:00:55,320 truth and ethics have all their role 21 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,480 this is a wall where there is no ethics 22 00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,820 no low and the only price for winning is 23 00:00:59,820 --> 00:01:01,800 survive level there are plenty of 24 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,080 channels that cater to this kind of 25 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,299 polarized public this is a different 26 00:01:06,299 --> 00:01:10,640 place so let's get started 27 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,659 there are plenty of YouTube channels 28 00:01:12,659 --> 00:01:14,880 that follow the operation day by day 29 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,159 doing an excellent job for a detailed 30 00:01:17,159 --> 00:01:19,439 description I recommend following web 31 00:01:19,439 --> 00:01:22,500 Union and defense politic Asia while for 32 00:01:22,500 --> 00:01:25,500 an in-depth analysis of single events I 33 00:01:25,500 --> 00:01:27,780 suggest history Legends links in the 34 00:01:27,780 --> 00:01:30,360 description below here I will just give 35 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,040 some flashes functional to my 36 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:36,240 interpretation so Ukraine prepared 18 to 37 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:39,299 35 brigades for the summer offensive 38 00:01:39,299 --> 00:01:41,759 only few of them are equipped with 39 00:01:41,759 --> 00:01:44,280 Western systems the size of these units 40 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,400 is relatively small with about 100 to 41 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,000 150 combat Vehicles each and about 20 to 42 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,119 30 artillery tubes however likely the 43 00:01:54,119 --> 00:01:58,200 forces beyond the first 1618 Brigade are 44 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,360 just light infantry and while ukrainians 45 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,579 were preparing the brigades the Russians 46 00:02:02,579 --> 00:02:04,799 prepared a defensive line that covers 47 00:02:04,799 --> 00:02:07,860 the whole length of the front with the 48 00:02:07,860 --> 00:02:10,500 different densities in the south in the 49 00:02:10,500 --> 00:02:13,440 West Western sector these defenses are 50 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,200 three or four lines deep and they stand 51 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,660 in depth behind the front line another 52 00:02:18,660 --> 00:02:21,120 areas for example in the north there is 53 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,280 just a single line in front of the main 54 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,560 lines in the South there is a large 55 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:27,900 buffer area between 10 and 20 kilometers 56 00:02:27,900 --> 00:02:30,959 deep with a low density of defenses and 57 00:02:30,959 --> 00:02:34,140 units whose job is basically to slow 58 00:02:34,140 --> 00:02:36,780 down and attack him Force ukrainians 59 00:02:36,780 --> 00:02:39,000 started the operations on the 6th of 60 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,459 June with a heavier artillery and an 61 00:02:41,459 --> 00:02:43,860 in-depth attack by ml arrest and storm 62 00:02:43,860 --> 00:02:45,959 shadows in the South which is commonly 63 00:02:45,959 --> 00:02:47,819 believed to be the main theater at least 64 00:02:47,819 --> 00:02:51,480 so far we can distinguish two stages in 65 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,580 the first stage ukrainians try to 66 00:02:53,580 --> 00:02:56,040 conduct movement operations with company 67 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,379 size mechanized units but this failed 68 00:02:58,379 --> 00:03:00,599 with fairly heavy losses on Ukrainian 69 00:03:00,599 --> 00:03:02,819 side in the second stage ukrainians 70 00:03:02,819 --> 00:03:04,800 resorted to small infantry operations 71 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,040 conducted by platoon size units that are 72 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,319 basically still currently ongoing to 73 00:03:10,319 --> 00:03:12,120 have be in other attempts to conduct 74 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,659 mobile operations more recently but they 75 00:03:15,659 --> 00:03:17,760 really didn't work out so the pressure 76 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,920 is still on and in the last few weeks it 77 00:03:19,920 --> 00:03:21,360 actually seemed that ukrainians 78 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,640 sometimes take some days off to pause 79 00:03:23,640 --> 00:03:26,459 and regroup the other major effort seems 80 00:03:26,459 --> 00:03:28,379 to be happening at the two sides of 81 00:03:28,379 --> 00:03:30,959 bakmut in what I would call the Second 82 00:03:30,959 --> 00:03:34,080 Battle of bakmut the ukrainians have 83 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:35,879 regained some positions in there as 84 00:03:35,879 --> 00:03:38,519 north and south of the Town however 85 00:03:38,519 --> 00:03:41,220 probing all the core operations happened 86 00:03:41,220 --> 00:03:43,560 and keep happening along the entire 87 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,019 contact line Ukrainian Air Force is 88 00:03:46,019 --> 00:03:47,879 having a limited role in the operations 89 00:03:47,879 --> 00:03:49,739 where perhaps the most important action 90 00:03:49,739 --> 00:03:52,319 is the delivery of the Storm Shadow 91 00:03:52,319 --> 00:03:55,500 missiles we have seen some activity of 92 00:03:55,500 --> 00:03:58,080 Ukrainian helicopters but definitely 93 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,659 nothing major the Russian Air Force on 94 00:04:00,659 --> 00:04:03,540 the contrary it is very active at least 95 00:04:03,540 --> 00:04:05,819 if compared to the month in the 96 00:04:05,819 --> 00:04:08,580 beginning of 2023 helicopters in 97 00:04:08,580 --> 00:04:11,400 particular have been very effective in 98 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,019 the first couple of weeks of operations 99 00:04:13,019 --> 00:04:15,120 to counter the Ukrainian mechanized 100 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,120 forces their activity though was reduced 101 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:19,918 when the main operating base was set 102 00:04:19,918 --> 00:04:21,600 destroying some machines and 103 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,120 neutralizing several piles overall 104 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,280 ukrainians have achieved some limited 105 00:04:26,280 --> 00:04:28,080 territorial gains in the South and 106 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,300 around back mood but the Russians have 107 00:04:30,300 --> 00:04:32,340 gained territory in an offensive 108 00:04:32,340 --> 00:04:34,860 operation in the criminal area and in 109 00:04:34,860 --> 00:04:36,360 the last couple of days there has been 110 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,340 Russian pressure in the North in this 111 00:04:38,340 --> 00:04:40,800 vatave area and the moment I'm recording 112 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:45,259 this no breakthrough has happened 113 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,440 the key is always their power either 114 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,460 achieved or denied but in Ukraine it is 115 00:04:53,460 --> 00:04:56,400 not what everybody expected before the 116 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,320 war there is a very high level of 117 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,900 intelligence available to both size true 118 00:05:00,900 --> 00:05:03,840 air power albate of a strange kind 119 00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:06,720 Ukraine has benefited by a massive 120 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,120 influx of intelligence from NATO fly 121 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,759 near Ukrainian border there always 2aox 122 00:05:11,759 --> 00:05:14,280 aircraft and one or two electronic 123 00:05:14,280 --> 00:05:16,979 intelligence platforms like the ec-135 124 00:05:16,979 --> 00:05:19,020 above the Black Sea there are constantly 125 00:05:19,020 --> 00:05:20,940 other intelligence assets flying above 126 00:05:20,940 --> 00:05:23,280 international waters either high 127 00:05:23,280 --> 00:05:25,860 altitude long endurance unmanned 128 00:05:25,860 --> 00:05:28,320 Vehicles like the global hook or other 129 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,380 smaller platforms like game q9 the RAF 130 00:05:31,380 --> 00:05:33,600 has ventured in the same area with their 131 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:34,340 own 132 00:05:34,340 --> 00:05:37,860 rc-135 the p8a are Maritime surveillance 133 00:05:37,860 --> 00:05:39,840 and anti-submarine aircraft but their 134 00:05:39,840 --> 00:05:41,820 capability of conducting ailing 135 00:05:41,820 --> 00:05:44,940 operation is such that they can be used 136 00:05:44,940 --> 00:05:48,060 for intelligence surveillance and 137 00:05:48,060 --> 00:05:50,580 reconnaissance we also know that Mirage 138 00:05:50,580 --> 00:05:53,100 2000d and their National Authority flew 139 00:05:53,100 --> 00:05:54,780 intelligence missions above the Black 140 00:05:54,780 --> 00:05:58,380 Sea using the Aztec AirLand pod so the 141 00:05:58,380 --> 00:06:00,900 Russian order of battle is well known 142 00:06:00,900 --> 00:06:03,960 and this knowledge is passed on to 143 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,479 Ukraine through a permanent structure 144 00:06:06,479 --> 00:06:09,720 operating in Germany however it seems 145 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,419 that the information is not integrated 146 00:06:12,419 --> 00:06:14,460 with the operation of Ukrainian Armed 147 00:06:14,460 --> 00:06:17,220 Forces what I mean that there is no real 148 00:06:17,220 --> 00:06:19,500 time communication between NATO and 149 00:06:19,500 --> 00:06:21,900 actively operating assets of Ukrainian 150 00:06:21,900 --> 00:06:24,360 Armed Forces for example a piloting 151 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,600 flight is not receiving queues or data 152 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,120 from the aux planes this is an obvious 153 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,340 measure to avoid escalation but other 154 00:06:32,340 --> 00:06:35,160 more risky activities are known to have 155 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,759 taken place for example we know 156 00:06:38,759 --> 00:06:43,319 that the rq-170 stealth drones have 157 00:06:43,319 --> 00:06:47,039 violated the crimeans airspace at least 158 00:06:47,039 --> 00:06:49,620 nine times we can just hope that no 159 00:06:49,620 --> 00:06:51,660 incident like the one that happened in 160 00:06:51,660 --> 00:06:54,360 Iran in 2011 is going to happen this 161 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,699 time however these flying assets are not 162 00:06:56,699 --> 00:06:58,680 the only source of intelligence the U.S 163 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,840 has several hundreds of space-based 164 00:07:00,840 --> 00:07:03,000 satellites many are communication assets 165 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,880 but many do provide all sort of 166 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:07,919 intelligence they can do exactly what 167 00:07:07,919 --> 00:07:10,880 Endo atmospheric systems do they do 168 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:12,900 electronic intelligence signal 169 00:07:12,900 --> 00:07:15,900 intelligence radar reconnaissance and so 170 00:07:15,900 --> 00:07:19,139 on moreover they do imagery with a 171 00:07:19,139 --> 00:07:21,360 resolution of 10 to 20 centimeters 172 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:25,020 invisible light or infrared or who knows 173 00:07:25,020 --> 00:07:27,360 what else this is more than enough to 174 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,180 map trenches and count every single 175 00:07:30,180 --> 00:07:31,979 Russian asset in the area of operations 176 00:07:31,979 --> 00:07:34,919 even more important is the capability to 177 00:07:34,919 --> 00:07:36,840 use artificial intelligence to analyze 178 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:38,699 the information acquired this is some 179 00:07:38,699 --> 00:07:40,560 something that the military intelligence 180 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,080 has been studying well before then 181 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,060 commercial applications started popping 182 00:07:45,060 --> 00:07:48,180 up 10 or 15 years ago in the time of 183 00:07:48,180 --> 00:07:50,880 film or before artificial intelligence a 184 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,880 human had to carefully watch every image 185 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:55,979 and extract the information now 186 00:07:55,979 --> 00:07:58,440 algorithm can do that they can simply 187 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:00,720 identify what is changed or classify the 188 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,000 vehicles in a parking lot the decision 189 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,039 maker receives only the relevant 190 00:08:05,039 --> 00:08:06,840 information without the noise of 191 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,960 hundreds of perfectly normal forests 192 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,300 Lakes deserts prairies and town images 193 00:08:12,300 --> 00:08:14,460 don't get the impression that nothing 194 00:08:14,460 --> 00:08:16,259 could be hidden because it's not true 195 00:08:16,259 --> 00:08:18,479 the strip covered by the satellite is 196 00:08:18,479 --> 00:08:20,879 relatively narrow and orbital mechanics 197 00:08:20,879 --> 00:08:22,979 can't ensure that the satellite will be 198 00:08:22,979 --> 00:08:25,199 above the area of Interest exactly when 199 00:08:25,199 --> 00:08:27,419 it is needed satellite orbits are 200 00:08:27,419 --> 00:08:29,280 designed to keep the most interesting 201 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,919 areas of the globe under surveillance at 202 00:08:31,919 --> 00:08:34,559 the price of a less thorough coverage of 203 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,020 other areas satellites can maneuver and 204 00:08:37,020 --> 00:08:39,479 Vary their orbits but since they can be 205 00:08:39,479 --> 00:08:41,399 refueled this is an activity that 206 00:08:41,399 --> 00:08:43,979 requires careful consideration when the 207 00:08:43,979 --> 00:08:45,839 tank is empty they will be stuck in 208 00:08:45,839 --> 00:08:47,700 their final orbit for the rest of their 209 00:08:47,700 --> 00:08:49,800 useful life Russia has the advantage of 210 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,200 being the country with the largest land 211 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:55,019 surface on the planet it is very 212 00:08:55,019 --> 00:08:56,940 difficult to cover it thoroughly so 213 00:08:56,940 --> 00:08:59,519 hiding something in Siberia is 214 00:08:59,519 --> 00:09:02,220 definitely possible however covering the 215 00:09:02,220 --> 00:09:04,140 conflict zones they are immediate 216 00:09:04,140 --> 00:09:06,540 vicinity in the key logistic hubs is 217 00:09:06,540 --> 00:09:09,480 well within the capabilities of the U.S 218 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,339 space-based reconnaissance and then 219 00:09:11,339 --> 00:09:14,040 there are the drones this word got us 220 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,500 used to the large use of drones the 221 00:09:16,500 --> 00:09:18,420 medium altitude the long endurance 222 00:09:18,420 --> 00:09:21,540 drones like the baraktar that stole the 223 00:09:21,540 --> 00:09:23,459 stage at the beginning of the war have 224 00:09:23,459 --> 00:09:25,740 now been wiped from the sky by the air 225 00:09:25,740 --> 00:09:28,380 defenses of both sides they're simply 226 00:09:28,380 --> 00:09:30,899 too vulnerable what are still massively 227 00:09:30,899 --> 00:09:33,240 used though are the commercial drones 228 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,120 Ukraine has literally bought everything 229 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:37,680 that was available on the commercial 230 00:09:37,680 --> 00:09:40,440 Market I was told by a source that a 231 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:44,339 realistic estimate is from 50 000 to 70 232 00:09:44,339 --> 00:09:47,399 000 commercial drones acquired only for 233 00:09:47,399 --> 00:09:49,200 the summer offensive because they were 234 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,240 acquiring even before obviously they 235 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,339 need so many because these systems are 236 00:09:53,339 --> 00:09:55,380 quite short-lived some are turned into 237 00:09:55,380 --> 00:09:58,380 suicidal drones so by definition they 238 00:09:58,380 --> 00:10:00,420 don't survive the mission but those that 239 00:10:00,420 --> 00:10:01,740 are used for observational 240 00:10:01,740 --> 00:10:04,019 reconnaissance have an average life of 241 00:10:04,019 --> 00:10:06,000 only six missions because the Russian 242 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,580 electronic warfare is dense and capable 243 00:10:08,580 --> 00:10:10,860 and they have basically no defense 244 00:10:10,860 --> 00:10:13,200 against it the key element in my opinion 245 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,959 is that they are available to almost any 246 00:10:15,959 --> 00:10:18,600 small unit being employed on the ground 247 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,000 the level of situational awareness that 248 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,120 they can contribute is basically 249 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:26,160 unprecedented in history so far we have 250 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,980 talked about Ukraine but what about the 251 00:10:28,980 --> 00:10:31,260 Russians well it is basically the same 252 00:10:31,260 --> 00:10:34,140 thing word for word just to a lesser 253 00:10:34,140 --> 00:10:36,300 degree they do have exactly the same 254 00:10:36,300 --> 00:10:38,519 category of systems they're just few 255 00:10:38,519 --> 00:10:41,399 fewer of them and some also have 256 00:10:41,399 --> 00:10:44,579 inferior capabilities so there are fewer 257 00:10:44,579 --> 00:10:46,440 electronic intelligence aircraft there 258 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,180 are fewer a-wax there are fewer 259 00:10:48,180 --> 00:10:51,540 satellites and so on there are two 260 00:10:51,540 --> 00:10:53,640 differences though that partially 261 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,940 compensate this lesser degree the 262 00:10:56,940 --> 00:10:59,339 Russians have a very large ground-based 263 00:10:59,339 --> 00:11:01,800 and helicopter-based electronic warfare 264 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,260 and electronic intelligence capability 265 00:11:04,260 --> 00:11:06,540 this kind of capabilities are not so 266 00:11:06,540 --> 00:11:09,720 common in NATO service and even less in 267 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,120 Ukraine they are either organic to 268 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,399 Russian large units or they are 269 00:11:14,399 --> 00:11:16,620 organized an entire autonomous 270 00:11:16,620 --> 00:11:19,260 electronic warfare brigades these assets 271 00:11:19,260 --> 00:11:21,360 are largely unknown in the west at least 272 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:24,720 to the general public and let's say the 273 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,940 less focused analysts but there are 274 00:11:26,940 --> 00:11:30,300 dozens literal dozens of types each one 275 00:11:30,300 --> 00:11:32,579 with a specific function and they have 276 00:11:32,579 --> 00:11:34,800 proven their effectiveness in Ukraine 277 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,079 several times the most notable element 278 00:11:37,079 --> 00:11:40,320 is the GPS Jam and spoofing capability 279 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,779 that is compromising the effectiveness 280 00:11:42,779 --> 00:11:46,019 of basically anything GPS guided the 281 00:11:46,019 --> 00:11:48,060 other is the capability of Downing 282 00:11:48,060 --> 00:11:50,579 drones of any type and the commercial 283 00:11:50,579 --> 00:11:53,100 drones in particular personally find the 284 00:11:53,100 --> 00:11:55,040 Russian approach to electronic warfare 285 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,140 fascinating and maybe we will cover it 286 00:11:58,140 --> 00:12:00,300 in the future even though well it's not 287 00:12:00,300 --> 00:12:02,339 aircraft the other important difference 288 00:12:02,339 --> 00:12:04,440 is the use of military light 289 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,779 surveillance drones the Russian medium 290 00:12:06,779 --> 00:12:09,779 altitude long endurance systems the once 291 00:12:09,779 --> 00:12:12,079 more on the light side kept flying 292 00:12:12,079 --> 00:12:15,240 albeit with some difficulties the most 293 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,339 interesting example is the Orlan it's 294 00:12:17,339 --> 00:12:20,100 just as multi-plane with a gimbal camera 295 00:12:20,100 --> 00:12:22,980 in reality it has allowed for very fast 296 00:12:22,980 --> 00:12:25,079 scale chains with the Russian Artillery 297 00:12:25,079 --> 00:12:27,360 there are two versions often used 298 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,000 together one version is a reconnaissance 299 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,640 vehicle and a communication relay and 300 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:34,440 then there is a slightly bigger variant 301 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,660 with a laser designator for precision 302 00:12:36,660 --> 00:12:38,940 fire it is used to identify Ukraine and 303 00:12:38,940 --> 00:12:40,620 moving targets and quickly react 304 00:12:40,620 --> 00:12:43,440 directing guided Munitions on them like 305 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,899 the krasnapol round which seems to be 306 00:12:45,899 --> 00:12:48,420 available in large quantities these 307 00:12:48,420 --> 00:12:50,040 small drones have proven to be difficult 308 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,139 to detect and attack because well 309 00:12:52,139 --> 00:12:54,240 there's more enough to fly high enough 310 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,120 not to be easily visible with Optical 311 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,820 systems and they have a very small radar 312 00:12:59,820 --> 00:13:02,279 cross-section having well few metal 313 00:13:02,279 --> 00:13:04,920 Parts they have been hit and they have 314 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,019 been downed of course but they turned 315 00:13:07,019 --> 00:13:11,160 out to be quite survivable now why I am 316 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:12,779 telling you all of this 317 00:13:12,779 --> 00:13:15,120 because in Ukraine we are seeing 318 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:18,540 something unprecedented the battlefield 319 00:13:18,540 --> 00:13:21,839 is transparent both sides have enough 320 00:13:21,839 --> 00:13:24,240 intelligence to know everything there is 321 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,060 to know about the enemy anything moving 322 00:13:27,060 --> 00:13:29,700 in a depth of say 20 kilometers from the 323 00:13:29,700 --> 00:13:32,880 contact line is detected and if possible 324 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,339 it is attacked the Russians have less 325 00:13:35,339 --> 00:13:38,040 intelligence at hand than ukrainians but 326 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,260 they have enough to understand what is 327 00:13:40,260 --> 00:13:42,839 going on very clearly you must also 328 00:13:42,839 --> 00:13:44,820 remember that this is a war where a lot 329 00:13:44,820 --> 00:13:46,380 of information is publicly available 330 00:13:46,380 --> 00:13:48,600 much more than any other war in the past 331 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,899 I mean there is enough information out 332 00:13:51,899 --> 00:13:54,720 there for an awesome organization to 333 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:58,079 produce maps with relatively accurate 334 00:13:58,079 --> 00:14:01,079 orders of battle if civilians can do 335 00:14:01,079 --> 00:14:02,880 this I like to imagine what military 336 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,820 intelligence could do with access to all 337 00:14:05,820 --> 00:14:07,860 the assets we discussed above the 338 00:14:07,860 --> 00:14:11,160 consequence is that tactical Surplus is 339 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,560 no longer possible manual say that the 340 00:14:13,560 --> 00:14:15,839 competent Commander should be able to 341 00:14:15,839 --> 00:14:18,000 achieve tactical surprise in most 342 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,700 situations this is no longer true you 343 00:14:20,700 --> 00:14:22,680 can't for example attack frontal your 344 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,320 position to fix the forces and send a 345 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,839 unit around to attack from the flanks or 346 00:14:27,839 --> 00:14:31,019 from the back the unit going around will 347 00:14:31,019 --> 00:14:34,500 be spotted and the enemy will react so 348 00:14:34,500 --> 00:14:37,380 you may say if surprise is not possible 349 00:14:37,380 --> 00:14:40,440 what about speed and that is what 350 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:42,360 ukrainians try to do in the first few 351 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,940 days of operations we heard times and 352 00:14:44,940 --> 00:14:47,459 again how ukrainians should operate more 353 00:14:47,459 --> 00:14:49,860 according to Nato Doctrine practicing a 354 00:14:49,860 --> 00:14:53,339 war of movement well they tried they 355 00:14:53,339 --> 00:14:55,860 sent company size Columns of combined 356 00:14:55,860 --> 00:14:58,440 arms against the Russian positions and 357 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,720 they were spotted and attacked by 358 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,240 artillery anti-tank mobile teams and 359 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,000 helicopters and this led to the loss of 360 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,540 some very high value Western assets I 361 00:15:09,540 --> 00:15:11,760 personally believe that ukrainians 362 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,940 always knew what was going to happen but 363 00:15:14,940 --> 00:15:16,800 they had to demonstrate to the Western 364 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,260 supporters that in the conditions of 365 00:15:19,260 --> 00:15:23,040 this war these tactics don't work so the 366 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,740 obvious question is what kind of tactics 367 00:15:25,740 --> 00:15:28,040 may work 368 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,720 the Russians have preponderant artillery 369 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,940 superiority but ukrainians are using 370 00:15:32,940 --> 00:15:35,459 artillery and precision systems with a 371 00:15:35,459 --> 00:15:37,920 great Effectiveness too they're probably 372 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,260 running out of ammunitions hence the 373 00:15:40,260 --> 00:15:41,180 entire 374 00:15:41,180 --> 00:15:44,639 depm's story but this is a different 375 00:15:44,639 --> 00:15:46,860 subject we had Russian Witnesses 376 00:15:46,860 --> 00:15:49,079 explaining how the density of Russian 377 00:15:49,079 --> 00:15:51,779 lines has always been very low much 378 00:15:51,779 --> 00:15:53,820 lower than expected in pre-war 379 00:15:53,820 --> 00:15:56,519 simulations units are split small teams 380 00:15:56,519 --> 00:15:59,339 of no more than 5 to 10 men who occupy a 381 00:15:59,339 --> 00:16:02,160 single position separated by at least 382 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,980 100 meters from each other each of these 383 00:16:04,980 --> 00:16:08,519 positions is not a Target worthy of 384 00:16:08,519 --> 00:16:10,800 concentrated artillery fire a Russian 385 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:12,600 company after the reorganization is less 386 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,660 than 100 men and it may end up covering 387 00:16:15,660 --> 00:16:18,540 a kilometer of ground or even more if 388 00:16:18,540 --> 00:16:21,899 deployed in an isolated stronghold well 389 00:16:21,899 --> 00:16:24,000 in the first world war you could almost 390 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,699 fit a division in a kilometer of 391 00:16:26,699 --> 00:16:29,760 Frontage another consequence is that the 392 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,339 risk of staying out in the open is very 393 00:16:32,339 --> 00:16:34,320 high every time it is materially 394 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:38,399 possible a unit must begin or seek some 395 00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:40,800 form of coverage and in fact the only 396 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,019 areas where some concentrations are 397 00:16:43,019 --> 00:16:45,180 possible are those where some coverage 398 00:16:45,180 --> 00:16:47,579 already exists that is urbanized areas 399 00:16:47,579 --> 00:16:49,980 and wooded areas the latter more in 400 00:16:49,980 --> 00:16:52,259 spring and summer than in autumn and 401 00:16:52,259 --> 00:16:55,259 winter for well obvious reasons in these 402 00:16:55,259 --> 00:16:56,880 areas collecting intelligence is 403 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,220 somewhat more difficult simplifying the 404 00:16:59,220 --> 00:17:01,440 job of the units in there many planners 405 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,779 watch the Ukrainian theater mostly flat 406 00:17:03,779 --> 00:17:06,299 with relatively few natural obstacles 407 00:17:06,299 --> 00:17:09,000 and they see a territory ideal for 408 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,400 armored forces very difficult to defend 409 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,160 because the defender has nothing to hide 410 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,419 behind this is no longer true this is 411 00:17:18,419 --> 00:17:20,520 World War II stuff the combination of 412 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,579 pervasive intelligence and Firepower on 413 00:17:23,579 --> 00:17:26,220 both sides make any movement in open 414 00:17:26,220 --> 00:17:29,720 terrain extremely dangerous particularly 415 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,120 for concentration of forces if you have 416 00:17:33,120 --> 00:17:35,039 the large gas and flexibility in the use 417 00:17:35,039 --> 00:17:37,440 of Mines particularly on the Russian 418 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:41,400 side well it appears that maneuver war 419 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:46,080 is no longer possible open terrain has 420 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,960 become an almost impossible obstacle for 421 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,299 both sides and this is not limited to 422 00:17:51,299 --> 00:17:53,580 maneuver any concentration is just a 423 00:17:53,580 --> 00:17:55,559 Target and if you can't concentrate your 424 00:17:55,559 --> 00:17:56,640 forces 425 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,280 you can't really attack some will point 426 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,500 me to examples where attack was possible 427 00:18:01,500 --> 00:18:04,380 and Mobility paid off true it happened 428 00:18:04,380 --> 00:18:07,400 but this was the exception not the rule 429 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,020 and there were particular conditions 430 00:18:10,020 --> 00:18:12,480 that made it possible for example a very 431 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,080 low Force density on the defender side 432 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:20,100 so what is the solution then well there 433 00:18:20,100 --> 00:18:22,500 is one and we have seen it work since 434 00:18:22,500 --> 00:18:25,020 the so-called papasna breakthrough and 435 00:18:25,020 --> 00:18:27,179 during the so-called Russian winter 436 00:18:27,179 --> 00:18:29,580 offensive that included the first battle 437 00:18:29,580 --> 00:18:31,980 of bakmuth small infantry teams 438 00:18:31,980 --> 00:18:33,960 advancing areas where cover is available 439 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,480 Three Lions woods and developed land 440 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,240 with a massive fire support to suppress 441 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,640 and possibly destroy the defensive 442 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,980 strongholds before the attack if the 443 00:18:43,980 --> 00:18:46,320 attack is successful the attacking force 444 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,000 is joined by Engineers they gain 445 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,640 defensive positions and suppers clearing 446 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,740 the area from mines and other explosives 447 00:18:52,740 --> 00:18:55,380 tanks and other infantry vehicles are 448 00:18:55,380 --> 00:18:57,960 used only for transport and fire support 449 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,480 from a distance and the result of a 450 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,760 successful attack is in advance of a few 451 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,160 hundred meters or the conquest of a 452 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,340 small group of houses a slow grinding 453 00:19:08,340 --> 00:19:11,820 progress at best and it is a very costly 454 00:19:11,820 --> 00:19:14,700 progress too because losses are high on 455 00:19:14,700 --> 00:19:16,980 both sides this is a textbook definition 456 00:19:16,980 --> 00:19:19,260 of a meat grinder you also understand 457 00:19:19,260 --> 00:19:21,419 that since the advice can only be slow 458 00:19:21,419 --> 00:19:23,940 and methodical the possibility of a real 459 00:19:23,940 --> 00:19:26,100 breakthrough where the attacking Force 460 00:19:26,100 --> 00:19:28,500 finds itself with no more defendants in 461 00:19:28,500 --> 00:19:30,660 front and could penetrate deep into 462 00:19:30,660 --> 00:19:33,419 enemy territory well is almost 463 00:19:33,419 --> 00:19:35,880 non-existent there's always time for the 464 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:37,919 defender to move some reserves in the 465 00:19:37,919 --> 00:19:40,679 area and restart the process in all of 466 00:19:40,679 --> 00:19:43,140 the above is explaining what we have 467 00:19:43,140 --> 00:19:45,900 seen so far in this war the high losses 468 00:19:45,900 --> 00:19:48,120 the small movements of the front line 469 00:19:48,120 --> 00:19:52,500 the artillery war and so on so how is 470 00:19:52,500 --> 00:19:55,260 Ukrainian summer offensive developing in 471 00:19:55,260 --> 00:19:58,940 the light of this consider operations 472 00:19:58,940 --> 00:20:01,500 so while this is the part where quite 473 00:20:01,500 --> 00:20:03,720 uncomfortably I make my best impression 474 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,940 of an Archer General and try to 475 00:20:05,940 --> 00:20:07,980 interpret what is happening in the first 476 00:20:07,980 --> 00:20:09,900 week ukrainians tried to break through 477 00:20:09,900 --> 00:20:12,000 the Russian defenses and failed with 478 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,039 heavy losses among the units involved 479 00:20:14,039 --> 00:20:16,200 some say there was just a series of 480 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,000 probing attacks but I don't think so 481 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:19,980 they were well aware of how the Russians 482 00:20:19,980 --> 00:20:22,799 defensive positions were set up these 483 00:20:22,799 --> 00:20:24,780 attacks were supposed to roll over the 484 00:20:24,780 --> 00:20:27,120 advanced Russian defenses in the buffer 485 00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:29,160 zone and make contact with the main 486 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,100 defensive lines in a matter of days the 487 00:20:32,100 --> 00:20:34,260 decisive element that makes me think so 488 00:20:34,260 --> 00:20:37,679 is that they have been using some of the 489 00:20:37,679 --> 00:20:39,600 high value Western assets they were 490 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,360 given just for this task what both 491 00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:45,539 cursed and partially saved them was the 492 00:20:45,539 --> 00:20:47,220 attempt to go through the minefields 493 00:20:47,220 --> 00:20:49,620 since the number of the mining systems 494 00:20:49,620 --> 00:20:52,740 is limited they couldn't deploy entire 495 00:20:52,740 --> 00:20:55,020 battalions in combat formations but they 496 00:20:55,020 --> 00:20:57,419 had to resort to company size columns 497 00:20:57,419 --> 00:21:00,960 moving behind the D mining systems or 498 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,539 the narrow demand corridors when at 499 00:21:03,539 --> 00:21:05,580 first they were pounded by the Russian 500 00:21:05,580 --> 00:21:08,640 Artillery and by anti-tank missiles well 501 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,100 they stopped in this way only some 502 00:21:11,100 --> 00:21:14,280 elements of the advances forces suffered 503 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,620 heavy losses to those who say that we 504 00:21:16,620 --> 00:21:18,720 know of just a couple of cases where 505 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,520 this happened I replied that 506 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,100 statistically for each specific case we 507 00:21:23,100 --> 00:21:25,320 know of for each vehicle we see 508 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,539 destroyed there are many more that we 509 00:21:27,539 --> 00:21:29,640 don't see one thing is keeping track of 510 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,799 the social media posts to identify where 511 00:21:31,799 --> 00:21:33,480 the units are an entirely different 512 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,419 thing is tracing each and every movement 513 00:21:36,419 --> 00:21:38,159 on the battlefield this is something 514 00:21:38,159 --> 00:21:40,440 that the two opposing militaries can do 515 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,799 but we as civilians can't and the ones 516 00:21:43,799 --> 00:21:46,140 you don't see well depend on the side 517 00:21:46,140 --> 00:21:48,480 you are taking your news from I tend to 518 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,460 take the hosts into organizations that 519 00:21:50,460 --> 00:21:53,039 produce lists of lost assets with a 520 00:21:53,039 --> 00:21:55,140 boulder of salt since I believe that 521 00:21:55,140 --> 00:21:58,020 there are a good reasons to adapt up 522 00:21:58,020 --> 00:22:01,140 their impartiality but this is just me I 523 00:22:01,140 --> 00:22:03,720 don't expect you to agree so very 524 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,600 reasonably ukrainians change tact and 525 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,400 resorted to the tactics we have 526 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,740 described before which brought some 527 00:22:10,740 --> 00:22:13,020 success as a record is the deepest 528 00:22:13,020 --> 00:22:14,940 penetration from the beginning of the 529 00:22:14,940 --> 00:22:17,400 offensive in the south is around six to 530 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,280 eight kilometers so nothing particularly 531 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,919 exciting moreover we have seen that 532 00:22:22,919 --> 00:22:24,720 sometimes the still try some small 533 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,600 mechanized operations but well nothing 534 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,299 major paradoxically in the area around 535 00:22:30,299 --> 00:22:32,520 bakmut and other areas of the contact 536 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,460 line where ukrainians did not try a 537 00:22:35,460 --> 00:22:37,799 mechanized operation but they started 538 00:22:37,799 --> 00:22:40,320 with the tried and tested tactics the 539 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,380 progress has been slow but steady in the 540 00:22:43,380 --> 00:22:45,900 last two or three weeks it seems that 541 00:22:45,900 --> 00:22:48,240 ukrainians are also focusing on reducing 542 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,460 the Russian overwhelming artillery 543 00:22:50,460 --> 00:22:52,500 superiority with counter battery 544 00:22:52,500 --> 00:22:55,200 operations and precision guided weapons 545 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,020 like guide the artillery rounds or 546 00:22:58,020 --> 00:23:00,299 rockets and it seems that they are 547 00:23:00,299 --> 00:23:02,640 obtaining some successes if we have to 548 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,039 trust the words of the just sect Russian 549 00:23:05,039 --> 00:23:08,280 general even Popov however considering 550 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,320 the disparity of the tortillary forces 551 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,380 is definitely an uphill battle for 552 00:23:13,380 --> 00:23:16,020 ukrainians so is defensive succeeding 553 00:23:16,020 --> 00:23:19,020 well it depends on the expectations of 554 00:23:19,020 --> 00:23:21,900 whom you ask surely they are not doing 555 00:23:21,900 --> 00:23:24,720 better or worse than my expectation even 556 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:26,880 though nobody cares of my expectations 557 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,600 and rightly so some time ago I published 558 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,539 a few shorts where I was discussing in 559 00:23:33,539 --> 00:23:36,900 summary the subject I am covering here 560 00:23:36,900 --> 00:23:40,140 and I sort of predicted the situation so 561 00:23:40,140 --> 00:23:43,020 I know it's not polite to say so but I 562 00:23:43,020 --> 00:23:45,299 told you so however this offensive was 563 00:23:45,299 --> 00:23:47,520 sold to the general public as something 564 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,960 out of World War II or Iraq 2003 and 565 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,080 that did not materialize and probably is 566 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,419 also going worse than actual NATO 567 00:23:57,419 --> 00:24:00,240 expectations they were like expecting to 568 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,640 be at the main line of resistance in 569 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,820 three or four days if I had to guess the 570 00:24:05,820 --> 00:24:08,039 Western intelligence was convinced that 571 00:24:08,039 --> 00:24:09,960 the morale of the Russian forces was 572 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,179 very low and they were expecting to see 573 00:24:12,179 --> 00:24:15,059 units just melting away and refusing to 574 00:24:15,059 --> 00:24:15,900 fight 575 00:24:15,900 --> 00:24:18,539 this of course did not happen on the 576 00:24:18,539 --> 00:24:21,240 contrary maybe for the first time since 577 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,340 the beginning of the war we have seen 578 00:24:23,340 --> 00:24:26,700 Ukrainian units surrendering or refusing 579 00:24:26,700 --> 00:24:29,220 to attack it is not a large-scale 580 00:24:29,220 --> 00:24:32,159 phenomenon by any means but it is 581 00:24:32,159 --> 00:24:34,860 happening sometimes so if we look at the 582 00:24:34,860 --> 00:24:37,260 general picture in the south ukrainians 583 00:24:37,260 --> 00:24:39,600 in a month and a half just managed to 584 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,720 barely Dent the Russian buffer zone as 585 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,220 under the Russians themselves were 586 00:24:44,220 --> 00:24:46,440 expecting to lose in few days of combat 587 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,640 and that is not a success at all if the 588 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,860 objective was to regain control of the 589 00:24:52,860 --> 00:24:55,440 land bridge and reach the coast of the 590 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,260 Sea of azov well it is clearly failing 591 00:24:58,260 --> 00:25:00,659 if the objective though was to inflict 592 00:25:00,659 --> 00:25:04,559 losses to the Russian forces then we may 593 00:25:04,559 --> 00:25:07,200 argue that they had some success so far 594 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,299 and this is taking us to three very 595 00:25:09,299 --> 00:25:11,700 strange considerations that we have to 596 00:25:11,700 --> 00:25:14,340 do about the events that are unfolding 597 00:25:14,340 --> 00:25:16,380 in front of our eye the first that 598 00:25:16,380 --> 00:25:18,480 ukrainians seem to be adopting an 599 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,360 apprition strategy but being on the 600 00:25:21,360 --> 00:25:23,340 offensive they are taking more losses 601 00:25:23,340 --> 00:25:25,080 than the Russians since they have less 602 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,720 resources than the Russians this doesn't 603 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,120 seem to be a strategy that could pay off 604 00:25:30,120 --> 00:25:32,640 in the medium long term I really don't 605 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:33,900 know what to think it could be 606 00:25:33,900 --> 00:25:36,059 desperation but I don't think so or it 607 00:25:36,059 --> 00:25:38,580 could be that there is a reserve and 608 00:25:38,580 --> 00:25:40,559 accounted for ready to enter the 609 00:25:40,559 --> 00:25:43,380 operations that nobody knows about in a 610 00:25:43,380 --> 00:25:45,900 way or another I have the Sensation that 611 00:25:45,900 --> 00:25:48,720 I am missing something on this subject 612 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,820 the second is that the Russians are 613 00:25:50,820 --> 00:25:53,159 fighting for the buffer zone way more 614 00:25:53,159 --> 00:25:55,200 than it should be expected they are 615 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,120 defending the area they do counter 616 00:25:57,120 --> 00:25:59,400 attacks and the Frontline units have 617 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,380 been completely involved in this fight 618 00:26:01,380 --> 00:26:03,299 if I have to believe the maps that show 619 00:26:03,299 --> 00:26:05,279 the military units the Russian Reserve 620 00:26:05,279 --> 00:26:08,460 is still intact and in position so only 621 00:26:08,460 --> 00:26:10,980 the front line units have been involved 622 00:26:10,980 --> 00:26:13,279 so far but I can't explain this either 623 00:26:13,279 --> 00:26:16,380 maybe the Ukrainian attack was so weak 624 00:26:16,380 --> 00:26:18,000 that this option was indeed practical 625 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,059 but I don't believe so maybe they're not 626 00:26:21,059 --> 00:26:23,159 confident that the main line of defense 627 00:26:23,159 --> 00:26:25,559 is capable of being a serious obstacle 628 00:26:25,559 --> 00:26:28,260 but I don't think so as well so I 629 00:26:28,260 --> 00:26:30,720 suppose we will have to wait and see the 630 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,799 third Oddity is well three months ago 631 00:26:33,799 --> 00:26:35,940 ukrainians were running out of their 632 00:26:35,940 --> 00:26:38,520 defenses so 633 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,919 where is the Russian Air Force the 634 00:26:40,919 --> 00:26:42,720 Russians are indeed flying more than at 635 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,120 the beginning of 2023. helicopters and 636 00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:46,799 their to ground aircraft are an 637 00:26:46,799 --> 00:26:48,360 important component of the Russian 638 00:26:48,360 --> 00:26:50,760 reaction to Ukrainian offensive however 639 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,039 a large portion of the Russian Air Force 640 00:26:53,039 --> 00:26:55,400 is still not involved in the operations 641 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,580 while other units are overworked why are 642 00:26:59,580 --> 00:27:01,260 we not seeing an increase of the 643 00:27:01,260 --> 00:27:03,120 operation of the Russian Air Force as 644 00:27:03,120 --> 00:27:06,419 Ukrainian missile Supply is running out 645 00:27:06,419 --> 00:27:08,820 I have an idea about this because I've 646 00:27:08,820 --> 00:27:11,640 heard unconfirmed news so take this with 647 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,880 that Boulder of salt that Ukraine 648 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,460 received through Shady International 649 00:27:17,460 --> 00:27:21,059 channels a substantial supply of s300 650 00:27:21,059 --> 00:27:23,640 missiles but this is as I said totally 651 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,919 unconfirmed uh particularly considering 652 00:27:25,919 --> 00:27:28,620 that ukrainians and to a lesser extent 653 00:27:28,620 --> 00:27:31,320 the Russians have vacuumed all the 654 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,320 available International resources of the 655 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,860 type of weapons that were just available 656 00:27:37,860 --> 00:27:39,779 OB usually they didn't do this 657 00:27:39,779 --> 00:27:42,240 themselves there have been several 658 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,760 intermediaries so I will be keeping a 659 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,740 close eye on the air operations despite 660 00:27:46,740 --> 00:27:49,799 the scarcity of news in the last few 661 00:27:49,799 --> 00:27:52,320 weeks so this is a picture of what is 662 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,779 happening basically a high technology is 663 00:27:54,779 --> 00:27:57,779 stalemate between the two sides is there 664 00:27:57,779 --> 00:28:00,419 any way are there any circumstances that 665 00:28:00,419 --> 00:28:02,700 could change the situation 666 00:28:02,700 --> 00:28:07,039 well I personally believe so 667 00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:09,480 there are two types of events that could 668 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,179 change the situation on the battlefield 669 00:28:11,179 --> 00:28:14,400 military or political from the military 670 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,600 perspective the question is how could 671 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,179 ukrainians achieve their objectives and 672 00:28:21,179 --> 00:28:23,460 I think there are two possibilities but 673 00:28:23,460 --> 00:28:25,799 let's proceed with order I have seen 674 00:28:25,799 --> 00:28:27,900 different numbers in different analysis 675 00:28:27,900 --> 00:28:30,600 but so far no more than a few brigades 676 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,419 of the four set apart for the offensive 677 00:28:33,419 --> 00:28:35,880 has been used the losses have been quite 678 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,919 heavy in the order of 20 30 percent of 679 00:28:37,919 --> 00:28:39,900 the force which means that those 680 00:28:39,900 --> 00:28:43,260 brigades that were earmarked as the can 681 00:28:43,260 --> 00:28:47,120 opener for the offensive are basically 682 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:51,360 no longer operational as large units you 683 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:52,679 always need to remember that the 684 00:28:52,679 --> 00:28:55,140 strength of a large unit like Brigade or 685 00:28:55,140 --> 00:28:57,600 division is more of the sum of its parts 686 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,059 and it derives from the combination of 687 00:29:00,059 --> 00:29:02,100 the different elements since these 688 00:29:02,100 --> 00:29:04,440 elements are never worn down uniformly 689 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,679 even at 10 percent of losses might alter 690 00:29:07,679 --> 00:29:10,380 the composition in such a way that makes 691 00:29:10,380 --> 00:29:12,960 the unit way less effective and 692 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,000 according to Nato doctrina unit that has 693 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,279 suffered 10 percent losses should be 694 00:29:17,279 --> 00:29:20,820 retired and refitted however the bulk of 695 00:29:20,820 --> 00:29:23,100 Ukrainian offensive forces are still 696 00:29:23,100 --> 00:29:26,039 intact and at least according to the 697 00:29:26,039 --> 00:29:28,440 ukrainians the big push Is Yet To Come 698 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,320 is there any way to use them to break 699 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:32,820 through the Russian lines and do 700 00:29:32,820 --> 00:29:35,820 something well maybe yes the sector 701 00:29:35,820 --> 00:29:38,580 around the town of Novel Michael is 702 00:29:38,580 --> 00:29:41,159 quite strange this is where the front 703 00:29:41,159 --> 00:29:43,100 line turns North from the general 704 00:29:43,100 --> 00:29:46,799 East-West orientation in the South there 705 00:29:46,799 --> 00:29:49,140 is just one line of defense quite close 706 00:29:49,140 --> 00:29:51,360 to the line of contact and there are no 707 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,640 Russian Reserve units behind the line 708 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,980 north of the era there's the donax 709 00:29:55,980 --> 00:29:58,080 metropolitan area where the most of the 710 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,020 forces are actually part of the exodonix 711 00:30:01,020 --> 00:30:03,659 militia which is definitely not the best 712 00:30:03,659 --> 00:30:06,539 part of the Russian forces it seems that 713 00:30:06,539 --> 00:30:08,220 the Russian Alliance here are thinner 714 00:30:08,220 --> 00:30:11,520 than in the North or in the South and it 715 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,320 seems that there is no backstop in case 716 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,260 of penetration maybe it has maybe always 717 00:30:16,260 --> 00:30:17,940 considered that I'm just an Armature 718 00:30:17,940 --> 00:30:21,240 General maybe an infantry push executed 719 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,880 ignoring the losses could open a bridge 720 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,940 wide enough for the mechanized units to 721 00:30:26,940 --> 00:30:28,559 penetrate there's going to be no 722 00:30:28,559 --> 00:30:30,840 surprise as we said before but Ukrainian 723 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,360 reserves should be able to reach the 724 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,059 area quite quickly while the Russian 725 00:30:36,059 --> 00:30:39,120 reserves will have a longer route and 726 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,940 might get there late there are no major 727 00:30:41,940 --> 00:30:44,460 roads leading to this point but a few 728 00:30:44,460 --> 00:30:46,559 kilometers in the Russian occupied 729 00:30:46,559 --> 00:30:48,899 territory there is a Motorway going 730 00:30:48,899 --> 00:30:51,360 south to marjupon the railway going 731 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,399 through the land bridge is also not far 732 00:30:53,399 --> 00:30:56,580 off so even a moderate penetration could 733 00:30:56,580 --> 00:30:59,220 really create logistical problems to the 734 00:30:59,220 --> 00:31:00,840 forces in the land bridge they will be 735 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,520 reduced with basically with the code 736 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,220 Post Road moreover moving south 737 00:31:05,220 --> 00:31:07,919 Ukrainian forces would have the pre-war 738 00:31:07,919 --> 00:31:10,260 fortifications on their Left Flank which 739 00:31:10,260 --> 00:31:12,539 would help in the advance or another 740 00:31:12,539 --> 00:31:15,000 possibility is rather than pointing 741 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,220 straight South there could be an upper 742 00:31:17,220 --> 00:31:19,980 count around volada menacing the side 743 00:31:19,980 --> 00:31:21,720 and the rear of the Russian defensive 744 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:23,940 line This sector so far hasn't been 745 00:31:23,940 --> 00:31:26,340 really active here there is that famous 746 00:31:26,340 --> 00:31:29,340 stronghold The Menagerie but that's 747 00:31:29,340 --> 00:31:32,640 basically it the ukrainians though have 748 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,720 a number of heavy units right behind it 749 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,380 or in the nearby Valley canovo silica 750 00:31:40,380 --> 00:31:42,600 does this mean anything 751 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,000 we'll see with this option is also 752 00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,640 possible that since ukrainians have 753 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,460 received some little known amphibious 754 00:31:50,460 --> 00:31:53,220 capabilities that a diversionary attack 755 00:31:53,220 --> 00:31:55,640 may happen across the niepe river 756 00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,020 exactly at the opposite end of the front 757 00:31:58,020 --> 00:32:00,960 line and this may cause a really bad 758 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,659 headache to the Russian reserves so it 759 00:32:03,659 --> 00:32:06,299 seems a possibility to me well what do 760 00:32:06,299 --> 00:32:07,679 you think let me know in the comments 761 00:32:07,679 --> 00:32:10,320 below anyhow in the same way and noticed 762 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,720 it the Russians probably noticed it as 763 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,240 well so there's probably something else 764 00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,840 going on that I don't know and 765 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,480 we'll see but this is not everything I 766 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,279 personally see another possibility that 767 00:32:23,279 --> 00:32:25,740 is even more interesting so behind the 768 00:32:25,740 --> 00:32:28,020 northern front which by the way in the 769 00:32:28,020 --> 00:32:30,360 last couple of days is actually moving a 770 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,120 little bit there is a large Russian 771 00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,220 heavy force that has been there for 772 00:32:35,220 --> 00:32:37,740 months uh since the end of Ukrainian 773 00:32:37,740 --> 00:32:40,980 offensive doing basically nothing or 774 00:32:40,980 --> 00:32:42,899 better they have been re-equipped and 775 00:32:42,899 --> 00:32:45,720 they have been training uh what are they 776 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,440 going to do well nobody knows they look 777 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,279 like a theater reserved to me and sooner 778 00:32:53,279 --> 00:32:55,679 or later it will be used we also know 779 00:32:55,679 --> 00:32:57,960 that they are being used as a training 780 00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:01,260 ground for mobilized units but the same 781 00:33:01,260 --> 00:33:03,600 units are also receiving all the most 782 00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,940 modern equipment so this is a Potential 783 00:33:05,940 --> 00:33:08,039 Threat and makes the northern front a 784 00:33:08,039 --> 00:33:10,520 bad candidate for an offensive 785 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,700 but what if 786 00:33:13,700 --> 00:33:17,360 Ukrainian tried a quick attack 787 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,460 beyond the Russian border toward Belgard 788 00:33:20,460 --> 00:33:23,039 the Russian border is not as heavily 789 00:33:23,039 --> 00:33:25,320 defended as the front line in Ukraine 790 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,019 and Belgard is just 20 kilometers inside 791 00:33:28,019 --> 00:33:30,720 Russia and it is an extremely important 792 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,419 logistic hub for the entire Northern 793 00:33:33,419 --> 00:33:36,600 front the Russians must protect it and 794 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,880 it would be assured that this reserved 795 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,880 will be moved to counter the attack and 796 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,320 once their serves have moved the 797 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,480 northern front becomes vulnerable and 798 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,640 the second attack in the areas Batavia 799 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,820 could penetrate very deep potentially 800 00:33:50,820 --> 00:33:53,279 maybe moving the front line back of 801 00:33:53,279 --> 00:33:57,120 another 50 to 100 kilometers and undoing 802 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,120 the conquest of a large part of the 803 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,539 lugansko blast okay okay okay I'm well 804 00:34:03,539 --> 00:34:05,700 aware of the political consequences that 805 00:34:05,700 --> 00:34:07,679 such an operation may have but they 806 00:34:07,679 --> 00:34:10,619 can't stop thinking that threatening one 807 00:34:10,619 --> 00:34:13,379 of the major enemies logistic hubs is 808 00:34:13,379 --> 00:34:16,560 the move that makes more sense the 809 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,480 ukrainians have shown a constant 810 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,339 willingness to bend the rules and 811 00:34:20,339 --> 00:34:23,460 limitations imposed by us and NATO and I 812 00:34:23,460 --> 00:34:25,560 suppose that when you are desperate for 813 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:26,719 survival 814 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:30,359 Nothing Else Matters anyway the same 815 00:34:30,359 --> 00:34:32,040 applies I believe that the Russians have 816 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,980 thought about this possibility too and 817 00:34:34,980 --> 00:34:38,699 yeah let's wait and see so these are the 818 00:34:38,699 --> 00:34:40,260 two military options that I see 819 00:34:40,260 --> 00:34:42,719 ukrainians may have to conclude this 820 00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,540 offensive with a success however I don't 821 00:34:45,540 --> 00:34:47,879 think that any of them has a high 822 00:34:47,879 --> 00:34:50,339 probability of being successful they may 823 00:34:50,339 --> 00:34:53,580 be but is difficult 824 00:34:53,580 --> 00:34:55,800 and the reason I think so is quite 825 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,680 simple these units that Ukraine has 826 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,200 prepared for the offensive are probably 827 00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,660 the last units available Ukrainian 828 00:35:03,660 --> 00:35:06,780 population is now depleted the losses 829 00:35:06,780 --> 00:35:09,420 are high 12 million of ukrainians are 830 00:35:09,420 --> 00:35:12,780 abroad and there are press gangs in the 831 00:35:12,780 --> 00:35:15,540 street forcing people in the Army then 832 00:35:15,540 --> 00:35:17,280 there are not much more assets that the 833 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,980 West could give maybe if we wait a 834 00:35:19,980 --> 00:35:21,599 couple of years the Western industrial 835 00:35:21,599 --> 00:35:24,780 production will catch up but governments 836 00:35:24,780 --> 00:35:27,119 change the popular sentiment in the west 837 00:35:27,119 --> 00:35:30,839 is not as compact as the governments are 838 00:35:30,839 --> 00:35:33,420 in supporting Ukraine and the new 839 00:35:33,420 --> 00:35:36,300 governments May reflect this attitude if 840 00:35:36,300 --> 00:35:38,880 ukrainians burn all of these forces in 841 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,099 an offensive then there will be little 842 00:35:41,099 --> 00:35:44,400 less remaining the Russian reserves will 843 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,800 keep growing and then it will be the 844 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,079 Russian turn I think that ukrainians 845 00:35:49,079 --> 00:35:51,839 would be better off trying defensive but 846 00:35:51,839 --> 00:35:54,660 saving a good proportion of their most 847 00:35:54,660 --> 00:35:58,440 modern systems and best trained forces 848 00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,579 to form a strategic Reserve in being 849 00:36:02,579 --> 00:36:05,400 like a fleeting being just to hold a 850 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:06,720 position till 851 00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:09,720 something else happens and this brings 852 00:36:09,720 --> 00:36:11,880 us to the possible political events that 853 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,040 could cause a successful Ukrainian 854 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,800 offensive sure the most effective but 855 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,260 least likely would be a Russian change 856 00:36:19,260 --> 00:36:21,540 of regime this seem to have happened a 857 00:36:21,540 --> 00:36:23,460 few weeks ago but it turned out to be an 858 00:36:23,460 --> 00:36:26,520 enormous farce that actually left Putin 859 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,280 stronger than before I know that many 860 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:30,839 will not share this opinion but this 861 00:36:30,839 --> 00:36:32,820 video is already very long so I won't go 862 00:36:32,820 --> 00:36:35,460 in any more detail the other possibility 863 00:36:35,460 --> 00:36:37,440 is the intervention of some of the 864 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,780 Eastern European countries in the world 865 00:36:39,780 --> 00:36:43,079 under National Authority while two or 866 00:36:43,079 --> 00:36:45,420 three polish divisions could do wonders 867 00:36:45,420 --> 00:36:48,119 for the offensive I am not sure that the 868 00:36:48,119 --> 00:36:50,280 Russians will appreciate the difference 869 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,880 between NATO and National Authority I 870 00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:55,859 suspect that in this case we will have 871 00:36:55,859 --> 00:36:59,220 the answer of some of the questions that 872 00:36:59,220 --> 00:37:02,160 we have or at least I have I think that 873 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,200 we will learn very quickly where the 874 00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,480 Russian Air Force is we will learn how 875 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,060 many any cruise and ballistic missiles 876 00:37:09,060 --> 00:37:10,619 are remaining in the Russian 877 00:37:10,619 --> 00:37:13,380 availability and spoiler alert I believe 878 00:37:13,380 --> 00:37:15,660 the Russians stopped firing Cruz and 879 00:37:15,660 --> 00:37:18,420 ballistic missiles just short of the 880 00:37:18,420 --> 00:37:21,000 number necessary for a massive attack on 881 00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,359 European airfields I may be wrong 882 00:37:24,359 --> 00:37:27,079 but I hope I will never be proven right 883 00:37:27,079 --> 00:37:30,900 but finally the most impactful political 884 00:37:30,900 --> 00:37:34,680 event could be a cease-fired followed by 885 00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,839 negotiations and this is the options 886 00:37:36,839 --> 00:37:39,660 that I personally favor again I'm sure 887 00:37:39,660 --> 00:37:41,700 many won't agree with me but I believe 888 00:37:41,700 --> 00:37:44,300 that saving lives is a priority 889 00:37:44,300 --> 00:37:47,099 ukrainians have already done a lot they 890 00:37:47,099 --> 00:37:49,800 already inflicted several defeats to the 891 00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,140 Russians they should be realistic and 892 00:37:52,140 --> 00:37:54,740 accept open negotiations while they can 893 00:37:54,740 --> 00:37:58,560 if nothing else to rebuild their forces 894 00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,200 and be ready in the future for a second 895 00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,260 round I would prefer not I think 896 00:38:04,260 --> 00:38:06,420 everyone would prefer not but I would 897 00:38:06,420 --> 00:38:09,240 understand ukrainians I really really 898 00:38:09,240 --> 00:38:11,640 would like to wake up one morning and 899 00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,579 discover that the Gans are now silent 900 00:38:14,579 --> 00:38:16,800 and I can go back doing videos about 901 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,760 flight dynamics that nobody watches 902 00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:22,680 thank you very much for watching this 903 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,619 video so far please if you can do the 904 00:38:25,619 --> 00:38:28,320 usual YouTube stuff that is subscribe 905 00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,599 like hit the Bell to get all the 906 00:38:30,599 --> 00:38:33,119 notifications the algorithm lately 907 00:38:33,119 --> 00:38:36,240 hasn't been really kind to me so any 908 00:38:36,240 --> 00:38:38,820 help is really appreciated and if you 909 00:38:38,820 --> 00:38:40,380 like this show and if you want to 910 00:38:40,380 --> 00:38:42,540 contribute to keep it going while there 911 00:38:42,540 --> 00:38:44,579 is pattern you can become a member you 912 00:38:44,579 --> 00:38:46,920 can do a one-off donations you can buy a 913 00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:48,540 model for your models there is an 914 00:38:48,540 --> 00:38:49,980 affiliate link below I have a small 915 00:38:49,980 --> 00:38:52,260 percentage there is no extra cost for 916 00:38:52,260 --> 00:38:54,720 you final thought for all those who are 917 00:38:54,720 --> 00:38:57,119 supporting the channel already I would 918 00:38:57,119 --> 00:38:59,520 like to hug you all you are in my heart 919 00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:04,560 you have no idea how important you are 920 00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,920 so thank you very much for watching 921 00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,680 and see you next time 922 00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,760 and stop 66916

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