Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated:
1
00:00:00,179 --> 00:00:03,259
after this video you will likely tell me
2
00:00:03,259 --> 00:00:05,270
stick to aircraft
3
00:00:05,270 --> 00:00:09,260
[Music]
4
00:00:09,260 --> 00:00:11,880
in this video I'm going to do something
5
00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,580
that I rarely do Straight from aircraft
6
00:00:14,580 --> 00:00:17,340
into General military I have been asked
7
00:00:17,340 --> 00:00:19,380
to discuss the situation of Ukrainian
8
00:00:19,380 --> 00:00:22,320
offensive and give my opinion I'm
9
00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:24,300
flattered by the fact that someone
10
00:00:24,300 --> 00:00:27,420
actually values my opinion so I think I
11
00:00:27,420 --> 00:00:29,039
might give a small contribution to the
12
00:00:29,039 --> 00:00:31,019
debate in particular this is another
13
00:00:31,019 --> 00:00:33,840
subject that is highly divisive opinions
14
00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,260
range from ukrainians will get to Moscow
15
00:00:37,260 --> 00:00:40,320
soon to the Russians will soon be at the
16
00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,320
Polish border as usual reality is more
17
00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,020
than once than that and an interesting
18
00:00:46,020 --> 00:00:49,559
Nuance is that this is not a sport match
19
00:00:49,559 --> 00:00:52,980
this is not a Judiciary trial where low
20
00:00:52,980 --> 00:00:55,320
truth and ethics have all their role
21
00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,480
this is a wall where there is no ethics
22
00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,820
no low and the only price for winning is
23
00:00:59,820 --> 00:01:01,800
survive level there are plenty of
24
00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,080
channels that cater to this kind of
25
00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,299
polarized public this is a different
26
00:01:06,299 --> 00:01:10,640
place so let's get started
27
00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,659
there are plenty of YouTube channels
28
00:01:12,659 --> 00:01:14,880
that follow the operation day by day
29
00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,159
doing an excellent job for a detailed
30
00:01:17,159 --> 00:01:19,439
description I recommend following web
31
00:01:19,439 --> 00:01:22,500
Union and defense politic Asia while for
32
00:01:22,500 --> 00:01:25,500
an in-depth analysis of single events I
33
00:01:25,500 --> 00:01:27,780
suggest history Legends links in the
34
00:01:27,780 --> 00:01:30,360
description below here I will just give
35
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,040
some flashes functional to my
36
00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:36,240
interpretation so Ukraine prepared 18 to
37
00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:39,299
35 brigades for the summer offensive
38
00:01:39,299 --> 00:01:41,759
only few of them are equipped with
39
00:01:41,759 --> 00:01:44,280
Western systems the size of these units
40
00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,400
is relatively small with about 100 to
41
00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,000
150 combat Vehicles each and about 20 to
42
00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,119
30 artillery tubes however likely the
43
00:01:54,119 --> 00:01:58,200
forces beyond the first 1618 Brigade are
44
00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,360
just light infantry and while ukrainians
45
00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,579
were preparing the brigades the Russians
46
00:02:02,579 --> 00:02:04,799
prepared a defensive line that covers
47
00:02:04,799 --> 00:02:07,860
the whole length of the front with the
48
00:02:07,860 --> 00:02:10,500
different densities in the south in the
49
00:02:10,500 --> 00:02:13,440
West Western sector these defenses are
50
00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,200
three or four lines deep and they stand
51
00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,660
in depth behind the front line another
52
00:02:18,660 --> 00:02:21,120
areas for example in the north there is
53
00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,280
just a single line in front of the main
54
00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,560
lines in the South there is a large
55
00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:27,900
buffer area between 10 and 20 kilometers
56
00:02:27,900 --> 00:02:30,959
deep with a low density of defenses and
57
00:02:30,959 --> 00:02:34,140
units whose job is basically to slow
58
00:02:34,140 --> 00:02:36,780
down and attack him Force ukrainians
59
00:02:36,780 --> 00:02:39,000
started the operations on the 6th of
60
00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,459
June with a heavier artillery and an
61
00:02:41,459 --> 00:02:43,860
in-depth attack by ml arrest and storm
62
00:02:43,860 --> 00:02:45,959
shadows in the South which is commonly
63
00:02:45,959 --> 00:02:47,819
believed to be the main theater at least
64
00:02:47,819 --> 00:02:51,480
so far we can distinguish two stages in
65
00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,580
the first stage ukrainians try to
66
00:02:53,580 --> 00:02:56,040
conduct movement operations with company
67
00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,379
size mechanized units but this failed
68
00:02:58,379 --> 00:03:00,599
with fairly heavy losses on Ukrainian
69
00:03:00,599 --> 00:03:02,819
side in the second stage ukrainians
70
00:03:02,819 --> 00:03:04,800
resorted to small infantry operations
71
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,040
conducted by platoon size units that are
72
00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,319
basically still currently ongoing to
73
00:03:10,319 --> 00:03:12,120
have be in other attempts to conduct
74
00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,659
mobile operations more recently but they
75
00:03:15,659 --> 00:03:17,760
really didn't work out so the pressure
76
00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,920
is still on and in the last few weeks it
77
00:03:19,920 --> 00:03:21,360
actually seemed that ukrainians
78
00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,640
sometimes take some days off to pause
79
00:03:23,640 --> 00:03:26,459
and regroup the other major effort seems
80
00:03:26,459 --> 00:03:28,379
to be happening at the two sides of
81
00:03:28,379 --> 00:03:30,959
bakmut in what I would call the Second
82
00:03:30,959 --> 00:03:34,080
Battle of bakmut the ukrainians have
83
00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:35,879
regained some positions in there as
84
00:03:35,879 --> 00:03:38,519
north and south of the Town however
85
00:03:38,519 --> 00:03:41,220
probing all the core operations happened
86
00:03:41,220 --> 00:03:43,560
and keep happening along the entire
87
00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,019
contact line Ukrainian Air Force is
88
00:03:46,019 --> 00:03:47,879
having a limited role in the operations
89
00:03:47,879 --> 00:03:49,739
where perhaps the most important action
90
00:03:49,739 --> 00:03:52,319
is the delivery of the Storm Shadow
91
00:03:52,319 --> 00:03:55,500
missiles we have seen some activity of
92
00:03:55,500 --> 00:03:58,080
Ukrainian helicopters but definitely
93
00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,659
nothing major the Russian Air Force on
94
00:04:00,659 --> 00:04:03,540
the contrary it is very active at least
95
00:04:03,540 --> 00:04:05,819
if compared to the month in the
96
00:04:05,819 --> 00:04:08,580
beginning of 2023 helicopters in
97
00:04:08,580 --> 00:04:11,400
particular have been very effective in
98
00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,019
the first couple of weeks of operations
99
00:04:13,019 --> 00:04:15,120
to counter the Ukrainian mechanized
100
00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,120
forces their activity though was reduced
101
00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:19,918
when the main operating base was set
102
00:04:19,918 --> 00:04:21,600
destroying some machines and
103
00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,120
neutralizing several piles overall
104
00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,280
ukrainians have achieved some limited
105
00:04:26,280 --> 00:04:28,080
territorial gains in the South and
106
00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,300
around back mood but the Russians have
107
00:04:30,300 --> 00:04:32,340
gained territory in an offensive
108
00:04:32,340 --> 00:04:34,860
operation in the criminal area and in
109
00:04:34,860 --> 00:04:36,360
the last couple of days there has been
110
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,340
Russian pressure in the North in this
111
00:04:38,340 --> 00:04:40,800
vatave area and the moment I'm recording
112
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:45,259
this no breakthrough has happened
113
00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,440
the key is always their power either
114
00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,460
achieved or denied but in Ukraine it is
115
00:04:53,460 --> 00:04:56,400
not what everybody expected before the
116
00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,320
war there is a very high level of
117
00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,900
intelligence available to both size true
118
00:05:00,900 --> 00:05:03,840
air power albate of a strange kind
119
00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:06,720
Ukraine has benefited by a massive
120
00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,120
influx of intelligence from NATO fly
121
00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,759
near Ukrainian border there always 2aox
122
00:05:11,759 --> 00:05:14,280
aircraft and one or two electronic
123
00:05:14,280 --> 00:05:16,979
intelligence platforms like the ec-135
124
00:05:16,979 --> 00:05:19,020
above the Black Sea there are constantly
125
00:05:19,020 --> 00:05:20,940
other intelligence assets flying above
126
00:05:20,940 --> 00:05:23,280
international waters either high
127
00:05:23,280 --> 00:05:25,860
altitude long endurance unmanned
128
00:05:25,860 --> 00:05:28,320
Vehicles like the global hook or other
129
00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,380
smaller platforms like game q9 the RAF
130
00:05:31,380 --> 00:05:33,600
has ventured in the same area with their
131
00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:34,340
own
132
00:05:34,340 --> 00:05:37,860
rc-135 the p8a are Maritime surveillance
133
00:05:37,860 --> 00:05:39,840
and anti-submarine aircraft but their
134
00:05:39,840 --> 00:05:41,820
capability of conducting ailing
135
00:05:41,820 --> 00:05:44,940
operation is such that they can be used
136
00:05:44,940 --> 00:05:48,060
for intelligence surveillance and
137
00:05:48,060 --> 00:05:50,580
reconnaissance we also know that Mirage
138
00:05:50,580 --> 00:05:53,100
2000d and their National Authority flew
139
00:05:53,100 --> 00:05:54,780
intelligence missions above the Black
140
00:05:54,780 --> 00:05:58,380
Sea using the Aztec AirLand pod so the
141
00:05:58,380 --> 00:06:00,900
Russian order of battle is well known
142
00:06:00,900 --> 00:06:03,960
and this knowledge is passed on to
143
00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,479
Ukraine through a permanent structure
144
00:06:06,479 --> 00:06:09,720
operating in Germany however it seems
145
00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,419
that the information is not integrated
146
00:06:12,419 --> 00:06:14,460
with the operation of Ukrainian Armed
147
00:06:14,460 --> 00:06:17,220
Forces what I mean that there is no real
148
00:06:17,220 --> 00:06:19,500
time communication between NATO and
149
00:06:19,500 --> 00:06:21,900
actively operating assets of Ukrainian
150
00:06:21,900 --> 00:06:24,360
Armed Forces for example a piloting
151
00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,600
flight is not receiving queues or data
152
00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,120
from the aux planes this is an obvious
153
00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,340
measure to avoid escalation but other
154
00:06:32,340 --> 00:06:35,160
more risky activities are known to have
155
00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,759
taken place for example we know
156
00:06:38,759 --> 00:06:43,319
that the rq-170 stealth drones have
157
00:06:43,319 --> 00:06:47,039
violated the crimeans airspace at least
158
00:06:47,039 --> 00:06:49,620
nine times we can just hope that no
159
00:06:49,620 --> 00:06:51,660
incident like the one that happened in
160
00:06:51,660 --> 00:06:54,360
Iran in 2011 is going to happen this
161
00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,699
time however these flying assets are not
162
00:06:56,699 --> 00:06:58,680
the only source of intelligence the U.S
163
00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,840
has several hundreds of space-based
164
00:07:00,840 --> 00:07:03,000
satellites many are communication assets
165
00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,880
but many do provide all sort of
166
00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:07,919
intelligence they can do exactly what
167
00:07:07,919 --> 00:07:10,880
Endo atmospheric systems do they do
168
00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:12,900
electronic intelligence signal
169
00:07:12,900 --> 00:07:15,900
intelligence radar reconnaissance and so
170
00:07:15,900 --> 00:07:19,139
on moreover they do imagery with a
171
00:07:19,139 --> 00:07:21,360
resolution of 10 to 20 centimeters
172
00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:25,020
invisible light or infrared or who knows
173
00:07:25,020 --> 00:07:27,360
what else this is more than enough to
174
00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,180
map trenches and count every single
175
00:07:30,180 --> 00:07:31,979
Russian asset in the area of operations
176
00:07:31,979 --> 00:07:34,919
even more important is the capability to
177
00:07:34,919 --> 00:07:36,840
use artificial intelligence to analyze
178
00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:38,699
the information acquired this is some
179
00:07:38,699 --> 00:07:40,560
something that the military intelligence
180
00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,080
has been studying well before then
181
00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,060
commercial applications started popping
182
00:07:45,060 --> 00:07:48,180
up 10 or 15 years ago in the time of
183
00:07:48,180 --> 00:07:50,880
film or before artificial intelligence a
184
00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,880
human had to carefully watch every image
185
00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:55,979
and extract the information now
186
00:07:55,979 --> 00:07:58,440
algorithm can do that they can simply
187
00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:00,720
identify what is changed or classify the
188
00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,000
vehicles in a parking lot the decision
189
00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,039
maker receives only the relevant
190
00:08:05,039 --> 00:08:06,840
information without the noise of
191
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,960
hundreds of perfectly normal forests
192
00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,300
Lakes deserts prairies and town images
193
00:08:12,300 --> 00:08:14,460
don't get the impression that nothing
194
00:08:14,460 --> 00:08:16,259
could be hidden because it's not true
195
00:08:16,259 --> 00:08:18,479
the strip covered by the satellite is
196
00:08:18,479 --> 00:08:20,879
relatively narrow and orbital mechanics
197
00:08:20,879 --> 00:08:22,979
can't ensure that the satellite will be
198
00:08:22,979 --> 00:08:25,199
above the area of Interest exactly when
199
00:08:25,199 --> 00:08:27,419
it is needed satellite orbits are
200
00:08:27,419 --> 00:08:29,280
designed to keep the most interesting
201
00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,919
areas of the globe under surveillance at
202
00:08:31,919 --> 00:08:34,559
the price of a less thorough coverage of
203
00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,020
other areas satellites can maneuver and
204
00:08:37,020 --> 00:08:39,479
Vary their orbits but since they can be
205
00:08:39,479 --> 00:08:41,399
refueled this is an activity that
206
00:08:41,399 --> 00:08:43,979
requires careful consideration when the
207
00:08:43,979 --> 00:08:45,839
tank is empty they will be stuck in
208
00:08:45,839 --> 00:08:47,700
their final orbit for the rest of their
209
00:08:47,700 --> 00:08:49,800
useful life Russia has the advantage of
210
00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,200
being the country with the largest land
211
00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:55,019
surface on the planet it is very
212
00:08:55,019 --> 00:08:56,940
difficult to cover it thoroughly so
213
00:08:56,940 --> 00:08:59,519
hiding something in Siberia is
214
00:08:59,519 --> 00:09:02,220
definitely possible however covering the
215
00:09:02,220 --> 00:09:04,140
conflict zones they are immediate
216
00:09:04,140 --> 00:09:06,540
vicinity in the key logistic hubs is
217
00:09:06,540 --> 00:09:09,480
well within the capabilities of the U.S
218
00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,339
space-based reconnaissance and then
219
00:09:11,339 --> 00:09:14,040
there are the drones this word got us
220
00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,500
used to the large use of drones the
221
00:09:16,500 --> 00:09:18,420
medium altitude the long endurance
222
00:09:18,420 --> 00:09:21,540
drones like the baraktar that stole the
223
00:09:21,540 --> 00:09:23,459
stage at the beginning of the war have
224
00:09:23,459 --> 00:09:25,740
now been wiped from the sky by the air
225
00:09:25,740 --> 00:09:28,380
defenses of both sides they're simply
226
00:09:28,380 --> 00:09:30,899
too vulnerable what are still massively
227
00:09:30,899 --> 00:09:33,240
used though are the commercial drones
228
00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,120
Ukraine has literally bought everything
229
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:37,680
that was available on the commercial
230
00:09:37,680 --> 00:09:40,440
Market I was told by a source that a
231
00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:44,339
realistic estimate is from 50 000 to 70
232
00:09:44,339 --> 00:09:47,399
000 commercial drones acquired only for
233
00:09:47,399 --> 00:09:49,200
the summer offensive because they were
234
00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,240
acquiring even before obviously they
235
00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,339
need so many because these systems are
236
00:09:53,339 --> 00:09:55,380
quite short-lived some are turned into
237
00:09:55,380 --> 00:09:58,380
suicidal drones so by definition they
238
00:09:58,380 --> 00:10:00,420
don't survive the mission but those that
239
00:10:00,420 --> 00:10:01,740
are used for observational
240
00:10:01,740 --> 00:10:04,019
reconnaissance have an average life of
241
00:10:04,019 --> 00:10:06,000
only six missions because the Russian
242
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,580
electronic warfare is dense and capable
243
00:10:08,580 --> 00:10:10,860
and they have basically no defense
244
00:10:10,860 --> 00:10:13,200
against it the key element in my opinion
245
00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,959
is that they are available to almost any
246
00:10:15,959 --> 00:10:18,600
small unit being employed on the ground
247
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,000
the level of situational awareness that
248
00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,120
they can contribute is basically
249
00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:26,160
unprecedented in history so far we have
250
00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,980
talked about Ukraine but what about the
251
00:10:28,980 --> 00:10:31,260
Russians well it is basically the same
252
00:10:31,260 --> 00:10:34,140
thing word for word just to a lesser
253
00:10:34,140 --> 00:10:36,300
degree they do have exactly the same
254
00:10:36,300 --> 00:10:38,519
category of systems they're just few
255
00:10:38,519 --> 00:10:41,399
fewer of them and some also have
256
00:10:41,399 --> 00:10:44,579
inferior capabilities so there are fewer
257
00:10:44,579 --> 00:10:46,440
electronic intelligence aircraft there
258
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,180
are fewer a-wax there are fewer
259
00:10:48,180 --> 00:10:51,540
satellites and so on there are two
260
00:10:51,540 --> 00:10:53,640
differences though that partially
261
00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,940
compensate this lesser degree the
262
00:10:56,940 --> 00:10:59,339
Russians have a very large ground-based
263
00:10:59,339 --> 00:11:01,800
and helicopter-based electronic warfare
264
00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,260
and electronic intelligence capability
265
00:11:04,260 --> 00:11:06,540
this kind of capabilities are not so
266
00:11:06,540 --> 00:11:09,720
common in NATO service and even less in
267
00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,120
Ukraine they are either organic to
268
00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,399
Russian large units or they are
269
00:11:14,399 --> 00:11:16,620
organized an entire autonomous
270
00:11:16,620 --> 00:11:19,260
electronic warfare brigades these assets
271
00:11:19,260 --> 00:11:21,360
are largely unknown in the west at least
272
00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:24,720
to the general public and let's say the
273
00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,940
less focused analysts but there are
274
00:11:26,940 --> 00:11:30,300
dozens literal dozens of types each one
275
00:11:30,300 --> 00:11:32,579
with a specific function and they have
276
00:11:32,579 --> 00:11:34,800
proven their effectiveness in Ukraine
277
00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,079
several times the most notable element
278
00:11:37,079 --> 00:11:40,320
is the GPS Jam and spoofing capability
279
00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,779
that is compromising the effectiveness
280
00:11:42,779 --> 00:11:46,019
of basically anything GPS guided the
281
00:11:46,019 --> 00:11:48,060
other is the capability of Downing
282
00:11:48,060 --> 00:11:50,579
drones of any type and the commercial
283
00:11:50,579 --> 00:11:53,100
drones in particular personally find the
284
00:11:53,100 --> 00:11:55,040
Russian approach to electronic warfare
285
00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,140
fascinating and maybe we will cover it
286
00:11:58,140 --> 00:12:00,300
in the future even though well it's not
287
00:12:00,300 --> 00:12:02,339
aircraft the other important difference
288
00:12:02,339 --> 00:12:04,440
is the use of military light
289
00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,779
surveillance drones the Russian medium
290
00:12:06,779 --> 00:12:09,779
altitude long endurance systems the once
291
00:12:09,779 --> 00:12:12,079
more on the light side kept flying
292
00:12:12,079 --> 00:12:15,240
albeit with some difficulties the most
293
00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,339
interesting example is the Orlan it's
294
00:12:17,339 --> 00:12:20,100
just as multi-plane with a gimbal camera
295
00:12:20,100 --> 00:12:22,980
in reality it has allowed for very fast
296
00:12:22,980 --> 00:12:25,079
scale chains with the Russian Artillery
297
00:12:25,079 --> 00:12:27,360
there are two versions often used
298
00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,000
together one version is a reconnaissance
299
00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,640
vehicle and a communication relay and
300
00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:34,440
then there is a slightly bigger variant
301
00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,660
with a laser designator for precision
302
00:12:36,660 --> 00:12:38,940
fire it is used to identify Ukraine and
303
00:12:38,940 --> 00:12:40,620
moving targets and quickly react
304
00:12:40,620 --> 00:12:43,440
directing guided Munitions on them like
305
00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,899
the krasnapol round which seems to be
306
00:12:45,899 --> 00:12:48,420
available in large quantities these
307
00:12:48,420 --> 00:12:50,040
small drones have proven to be difficult
308
00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,139
to detect and attack because well
309
00:12:52,139 --> 00:12:54,240
there's more enough to fly high enough
310
00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,120
not to be easily visible with Optical
311
00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,820
systems and they have a very small radar
312
00:12:59,820 --> 00:13:02,279
cross-section having well few metal
313
00:13:02,279 --> 00:13:04,920
Parts they have been hit and they have
314
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,019
been downed of course but they turned
315
00:13:07,019 --> 00:13:11,160
out to be quite survivable now why I am
316
00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:12,779
telling you all of this
317
00:13:12,779 --> 00:13:15,120
because in Ukraine we are seeing
318
00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:18,540
something unprecedented the battlefield
319
00:13:18,540 --> 00:13:21,839
is transparent both sides have enough
320
00:13:21,839 --> 00:13:24,240
intelligence to know everything there is
321
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,060
to know about the enemy anything moving
322
00:13:27,060 --> 00:13:29,700
in a depth of say 20 kilometers from the
323
00:13:29,700 --> 00:13:32,880
contact line is detected and if possible
324
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,339
it is attacked the Russians have less
325
00:13:35,339 --> 00:13:38,040
intelligence at hand than ukrainians but
326
00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,260
they have enough to understand what is
327
00:13:40,260 --> 00:13:42,839
going on very clearly you must also
328
00:13:42,839 --> 00:13:44,820
remember that this is a war where a lot
329
00:13:44,820 --> 00:13:46,380
of information is publicly available
330
00:13:46,380 --> 00:13:48,600
much more than any other war in the past
331
00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,899
I mean there is enough information out
332
00:13:51,899 --> 00:13:54,720
there for an awesome organization to
333
00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:58,079
produce maps with relatively accurate
334
00:13:58,079 --> 00:14:01,079
orders of battle if civilians can do
335
00:14:01,079 --> 00:14:02,880
this I like to imagine what military
336
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,820
intelligence could do with access to all
337
00:14:05,820 --> 00:14:07,860
the assets we discussed above the
338
00:14:07,860 --> 00:14:11,160
consequence is that tactical Surplus is
339
00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,560
no longer possible manual say that the
340
00:14:13,560 --> 00:14:15,839
competent Commander should be able to
341
00:14:15,839 --> 00:14:18,000
achieve tactical surprise in most
342
00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,700
situations this is no longer true you
343
00:14:20,700 --> 00:14:22,680
can't for example attack frontal your
344
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,320
position to fix the forces and send a
345
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,839
unit around to attack from the flanks or
346
00:14:27,839 --> 00:14:31,019
from the back the unit going around will
347
00:14:31,019 --> 00:14:34,500
be spotted and the enemy will react so
348
00:14:34,500 --> 00:14:37,380
you may say if surprise is not possible
349
00:14:37,380 --> 00:14:40,440
what about speed and that is what
350
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:42,360
ukrainians try to do in the first few
351
00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,940
days of operations we heard times and
352
00:14:44,940 --> 00:14:47,459
again how ukrainians should operate more
353
00:14:47,459 --> 00:14:49,860
according to Nato Doctrine practicing a
354
00:14:49,860 --> 00:14:53,339
war of movement well they tried they
355
00:14:53,339 --> 00:14:55,860
sent company size Columns of combined
356
00:14:55,860 --> 00:14:58,440
arms against the Russian positions and
357
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,720
they were spotted and attacked by
358
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,240
artillery anti-tank mobile teams and
359
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,000
helicopters and this led to the loss of
360
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,540
some very high value Western assets I
361
00:15:09,540 --> 00:15:11,760
personally believe that ukrainians
362
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,940
always knew what was going to happen but
363
00:15:14,940 --> 00:15:16,800
they had to demonstrate to the Western
364
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,260
supporters that in the conditions of
365
00:15:19,260 --> 00:15:23,040
this war these tactics don't work so the
366
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,740
obvious question is what kind of tactics
367
00:15:25,740 --> 00:15:28,040
may work
368
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,720
the Russians have preponderant artillery
369
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,940
superiority but ukrainians are using
370
00:15:32,940 --> 00:15:35,459
artillery and precision systems with a
371
00:15:35,459 --> 00:15:37,920
great Effectiveness too they're probably
372
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,260
running out of ammunitions hence the
373
00:15:40,260 --> 00:15:41,180
entire
374
00:15:41,180 --> 00:15:44,639
depm's story but this is a different
375
00:15:44,639 --> 00:15:46,860
subject we had Russian Witnesses
376
00:15:46,860 --> 00:15:49,079
explaining how the density of Russian
377
00:15:49,079 --> 00:15:51,779
lines has always been very low much
378
00:15:51,779 --> 00:15:53,820
lower than expected in pre-war
379
00:15:53,820 --> 00:15:56,519
simulations units are split small teams
380
00:15:56,519 --> 00:15:59,339
of no more than 5 to 10 men who occupy a
381
00:15:59,339 --> 00:16:02,160
single position separated by at least
382
00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,980
100 meters from each other each of these
383
00:16:04,980 --> 00:16:08,519
positions is not a Target worthy of
384
00:16:08,519 --> 00:16:10,800
concentrated artillery fire a Russian
385
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:12,600
company after the reorganization is less
386
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,660
than 100 men and it may end up covering
387
00:16:15,660 --> 00:16:18,540
a kilometer of ground or even more if
388
00:16:18,540 --> 00:16:21,899
deployed in an isolated stronghold well
389
00:16:21,899 --> 00:16:24,000
in the first world war you could almost
390
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,699
fit a division in a kilometer of
391
00:16:26,699 --> 00:16:29,760
Frontage another consequence is that the
392
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,339
risk of staying out in the open is very
393
00:16:32,339 --> 00:16:34,320
high every time it is materially
394
00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:38,399
possible a unit must begin or seek some
395
00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:40,800
form of coverage and in fact the only
396
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,019
areas where some concentrations are
397
00:16:43,019 --> 00:16:45,180
possible are those where some coverage
398
00:16:45,180 --> 00:16:47,579
already exists that is urbanized areas
399
00:16:47,579 --> 00:16:49,980
and wooded areas the latter more in
400
00:16:49,980 --> 00:16:52,259
spring and summer than in autumn and
401
00:16:52,259 --> 00:16:55,259
winter for well obvious reasons in these
402
00:16:55,259 --> 00:16:56,880
areas collecting intelligence is
403
00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,220
somewhat more difficult simplifying the
404
00:16:59,220 --> 00:17:01,440
job of the units in there many planners
405
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,779
watch the Ukrainian theater mostly flat
406
00:17:03,779 --> 00:17:06,299
with relatively few natural obstacles
407
00:17:06,299 --> 00:17:09,000
and they see a territory ideal for
408
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,400
armored forces very difficult to defend
409
00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,160
because the defender has nothing to hide
410
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,419
behind this is no longer true this is
411
00:17:18,419 --> 00:17:20,520
World War II stuff the combination of
412
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,579
pervasive intelligence and Firepower on
413
00:17:23,579 --> 00:17:26,220
both sides make any movement in open
414
00:17:26,220 --> 00:17:29,720
terrain extremely dangerous particularly
415
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,120
for concentration of forces if you have
416
00:17:33,120 --> 00:17:35,039
the large gas and flexibility in the use
417
00:17:35,039 --> 00:17:37,440
of Mines particularly on the Russian
418
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:41,400
side well it appears that maneuver war
419
00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:46,080
is no longer possible open terrain has
420
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,960
become an almost impossible obstacle for
421
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,299
both sides and this is not limited to
422
00:17:51,299 --> 00:17:53,580
maneuver any concentration is just a
423
00:17:53,580 --> 00:17:55,559
Target and if you can't concentrate your
424
00:17:55,559 --> 00:17:56,640
forces
425
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,280
you can't really attack some will point
426
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,500
me to examples where attack was possible
427
00:18:01,500 --> 00:18:04,380
and Mobility paid off true it happened
428
00:18:04,380 --> 00:18:07,400
but this was the exception not the rule
429
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,020
and there were particular conditions
430
00:18:10,020 --> 00:18:12,480
that made it possible for example a very
431
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,080
low Force density on the defender side
432
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:20,100
so what is the solution then well there
433
00:18:20,100 --> 00:18:22,500
is one and we have seen it work since
434
00:18:22,500 --> 00:18:25,020
the so-called papasna breakthrough and
435
00:18:25,020 --> 00:18:27,179
during the so-called Russian winter
436
00:18:27,179 --> 00:18:29,580
offensive that included the first battle
437
00:18:29,580 --> 00:18:31,980
of bakmuth small infantry teams
438
00:18:31,980 --> 00:18:33,960
advancing areas where cover is available
439
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,480
Three Lions woods and developed land
440
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,240
with a massive fire support to suppress
441
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,640
and possibly destroy the defensive
442
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,980
strongholds before the attack if the
443
00:18:43,980 --> 00:18:46,320
attack is successful the attacking force
444
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,000
is joined by Engineers they gain
445
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,640
defensive positions and suppers clearing
446
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,740
the area from mines and other explosives
447
00:18:52,740 --> 00:18:55,380
tanks and other infantry vehicles are
448
00:18:55,380 --> 00:18:57,960
used only for transport and fire support
449
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,480
from a distance and the result of a
450
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,760
successful attack is in advance of a few
451
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,160
hundred meters or the conquest of a
452
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,340
small group of houses a slow grinding
453
00:19:08,340 --> 00:19:11,820
progress at best and it is a very costly
454
00:19:11,820 --> 00:19:14,700
progress too because losses are high on
455
00:19:14,700 --> 00:19:16,980
both sides this is a textbook definition
456
00:19:16,980 --> 00:19:19,260
of a meat grinder you also understand
457
00:19:19,260 --> 00:19:21,419
that since the advice can only be slow
458
00:19:21,419 --> 00:19:23,940
and methodical the possibility of a real
459
00:19:23,940 --> 00:19:26,100
breakthrough where the attacking Force
460
00:19:26,100 --> 00:19:28,500
finds itself with no more defendants in
461
00:19:28,500 --> 00:19:30,660
front and could penetrate deep into
462
00:19:30,660 --> 00:19:33,419
enemy territory well is almost
463
00:19:33,419 --> 00:19:35,880
non-existent there's always time for the
464
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:37,919
defender to move some reserves in the
465
00:19:37,919 --> 00:19:40,679
area and restart the process in all of
466
00:19:40,679 --> 00:19:43,140
the above is explaining what we have
467
00:19:43,140 --> 00:19:45,900
seen so far in this war the high losses
468
00:19:45,900 --> 00:19:48,120
the small movements of the front line
469
00:19:48,120 --> 00:19:52,500
the artillery war and so on so how is
470
00:19:52,500 --> 00:19:55,260
Ukrainian summer offensive developing in
471
00:19:55,260 --> 00:19:58,940
the light of this consider operations
472
00:19:58,940 --> 00:20:01,500
so while this is the part where quite
473
00:20:01,500 --> 00:20:03,720
uncomfortably I make my best impression
474
00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,940
of an Archer General and try to
475
00:20:05,940 --> 00:20:07,980
interpret what is happening in the first
476
00:20:07,980 --> 00:20:09,900
week ukrainians tried to break through
477
00:20:09,900 --> 00:20:12,000
the Russian defenses and failed with
478
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,039
heavy losses among the units involved
479
00:20:14,039 --> 00:20:16,200
some say there was just a series of
480
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,000
probing attacks but I don't think so
481
00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:19,980
they were well aware of how the Russians
482
00:20:19,980 --> 00:20:22,799
defensive positions were set up these
483
00:20:22,799 --> 00:20:24,780
attacks were supposed to roll over the
484
00:20:24,780 --> 00:20:27,120
advanced Russian defenses in the buffer
485
00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:29,160
zone and make contact with the main
486
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,100
defensive lines in a matter of days the
487
00:20:32,100 --> 00:20:34,260
decisive element that makes me think so
488
00:20:34,260 --> 00:20:37,679
is that they have been using some of the
489
00:20:37,679 --> 00:20:39,600
high value Western assets they were
490
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,360
given just for this task what both
491
00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:45,539
cursed and partially saved them was the
492
00:20:45,539 --> 00:20:47,220
attempt to go through the minefields
493
00:20:47,220 --> 00:20:49,620
since the number of the mining systems
494
00:20:49,620 --> 00:20:52,740
is limited they couldn't deploy entire
495
00:20:52,740 --> 00:20:55,020
battalions in combat formations but they
496
00:20:55,020 --> 00:20:57,419
had to resort to company size columns
497
00:20:57,419 --> 00:21:00,960
moving behind the D mining systems or
498
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,539
the narrow demand corridors when at
499
00:21:03,539 --> 00:21:05,580
first they were pounded by the Russian
500
00:21:05,580 --> 00:21:08,640
Artillery and by anti-tank missiles well
501
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,100
they stopped in this way only some
502
00:21:11,100 --> 00:21:14,280
elements of the advances forces suffered
503
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,620
heavy losses to those who say that we
504
00:21:16,620 --> 00:21:18,720
know of just a couple of cases where
505
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,520
this happened I replied that
506
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,100
statistically for each specific case we
507
00:21:23,100 --> 00:21:25,320
know of for each vehicle we see
508
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,539
destroyed there are many more that we
509
00:21:27,539 --> 00:21:29,640
don't see one thing is keeping track of
510
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,799
the social media posts to identify where
511
00:21:31,799 --> 00:21:33,480
the units are an entirely different
512
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,419
thing is tracing each and every movement
513
00:21:36,419 --> 00:21:38,159
on the battlefield this is something
514
00:21:38,159 --> 00:21:40,440
that the two opposing militaries can do
515
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,799
but we as civilians can't and the ones
516
00:21:43,799 --> 00:21:46,140
you don't see well depend on the side
517
00:21:46,140 --> 00:21:48,480
you are taking your news from I tend to
518
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,460
take the hosts into organizations that
519
00:21:50,460 --> 00:21:53,039
produce lists of lost assets with a
520
00:21:53,039 --> 00:21:55,140
boulder of salt since I believe that
521
00:21:55,140 --> 00:21:58,020
there are a good reasons to adapt up
522
00:21:58,020 --> 00:22:01,140
their impartiality but this is just me I
523
00:22:01,140 --> 00:22:03,720
don't expect you to agree so very
524
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,600
reasonably ukrainians change tact and
525
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,400
resorted to the tactics we have
526
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,740
described before which brought some
527
00:22:10,740 --> 00:22:13,020
success as a record is the deepest
528
00:22:13,020 --> 00:22:14,940
penetration from the beginning of the
529
00:22:14,940 --> 00:22:17,400
offensive in the south is around six to
530
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,280
eight kilometers so nothing particularly
531
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,919
exciting moreover we have seen that
532
00:22:22,919 --> 00:22:24,720
sometimes the still try some small
533
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,600
mechanized operations but well nothing
534
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,299
major paradoxically in the area around
535
00:22:30,299 --> 00:22:32,520
bakmut and other areas of the contact
536
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,460
line where ukrainians did not try a
537
00:22:35,460 --> 00:22:37,799
mechanized operation but they started
538
00:22:37,799 --> 00:22:40,320
with the tried and tested tactics the
539
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,380
progress has been slow but steady in the
540
00:22:43,380 --> 00:22:45,900
last two or three weeks it seems that
541
00:22:45,900 --> 00:22:48,240
ukrainians are also focusing on reducing
542
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,460
the Russian overwhelming artillery
543
00:22:50,460 --> 00:22:52,500
superiority with counter battery
544
00:22:52,500 --> 00:22:55,200
operations and precision guided weapons
545
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,020
like guide the artillery rounds or
546
00:22:58,020 --> 00:23:00,299
rockets and it seems that they are
547
00:23:00,299 --> 00:23:02,640
obtaining some successes if we have to
548
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,039
trust the words of the just sect Russian
549
00:23:05,039 --> 00:23:08,280
general even Popov however considering
550
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,320
the disparity of the tortillary forces
551
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,380
is definitely an uphill battle for
552
00:23:13,380 --> 00:23:16,020
ukrainians so is defensive succeeding
553
00:23:16,020 --> 00:23:19,020
well it depends on the expectations of
554
00:23:19,020 --> 00:23:21,900
whom you ask surely they are not doing
555
00:23:21,900 --> 00:23:24,720
better or worse than my expectation even
556
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:26,880
though nobody cares of my expectations
557
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,600
and rightly so some time ago I published
558
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,539
a few shorts where I was discussing in
559
00:23:33,539 --> 00:23:36,900
summary the subject I am covering here
560
00:23:36,900 --> 00:23:40,140
and I sort of predicted the situation so
561
00:23:40,140 --> 00:23:43,020
I know it's not polite to say so but I
562
00:23:43,020 --> 00:23:45,299
told you so however this offensive was
563
00:23:45,299 --> 00:23:47,520
sold to the general public as something
564
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,960
out of World War II or Iraq 2003 and
565
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,080
that did not materialize and probably is
566
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,419
also going worse than actual NATO
567
00:23:57,419 --> 00:24:00,240
expectations they were like expecting to
568
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,640
be at the main line of resistance in
569
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,820
three or four days if I had to guess the
570
00:24:05,820 --> 00:24:08,039
Western intelligence was convinced that
571
00:24:08,039 --> 00:24:09,960
the morale of the Russian forces was
572
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,179
very low and they were expecting to see
573
00:24:12,179 --> 00:24:15,059
units just melting away and refusing to
574
00:24:15,059 --> 00:24:15,900
fight
575
00:24:15,900 --> 00:24:18,539
this of course did not happen on the
576
00:24:18,539 --> 00:24:21,240
contrary maybe for the first time since
577
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,340
the beginning of the war we have seen
578
00:24:23,340 --> 00:24:26,700
Ukrainian units surrendering or refusing
579
00:24:26,700 --> 00:24:29,220
to attack it is not a large-scale
580
00:24:29,220 --> 00:24:32,159
phenomenon by any means but it is
581
00:24:32,159 --> 00:24:34,860
happening sometimes so if we look at the
582
00:24:34,860 --> 00:24:37,260
general picture in the south ukrainians
583
00:24:37,260 --> 00:24:39,600
in a month and a half just managed to
584
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,720
barely Dent the Russian buffer zone as
585
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,220
under the Russians themselves were
586
00:24:44,220 --> 00:24:46,440
expecting to lose in few days of combat
587
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,640
and that is not a success at all if the
588
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,860
objective was to regain control of the
589
00:24:52,860 --> 00:24:55,440
land bridge and reach the coast of the
590
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,260
Sea of azov well it is clearly failing
591
00:24:58,260 --> 00:25:00,659
if the objective though was to inflict
592
00:25:00,659 --> 00:25:04,559
losses to the Russian forces then we may
593
00:25:04,559 --> 00:25:07,200
argue that they had some success so far
594
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,299
and this is taking us to three very
595
00:25:09,299 --> 00:25:11,700
strange considerations that we have to
596
00:25:11,700 --> 00:25:14,340
do about the events that are unfolding
597
00:25:14,340 --> 00:25:16,380
in front of our eye the first that
598
00:25:16,380 --> 00:25:18,480
ukrainians seem to be adopting an
599
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,360
apprition strategy but being on the
600
00:25:21,360 --> 00:25:23,340
offensive they are taking more losses
601
00:25:23,340 --> 00:25:25,080
than the Russians since they have less
602
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,720
resources than the Russians this doesn't
603
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,120
seem to be a strategy that could pay off
604
00:25:30,120 --> 00:25:32,640
in the medium long term I really don't
605
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:33,900
know what to think it could be
606
00:25:33,900 --> 00:25:36,059
desperation but I don't think so or it
607
00:25:36,059 --> 00:25:38,580
could be that there is a reserve and
608
00:25:38,580 --> 00:25:40,559
accounted for ready to enter the
609
00:25:40,559 --> 00:25:43,380
operations that nobody knows about in a
610
00:25:43,380 --> 00:25:45,900
way or another I have the Sensation that
611
00:25:45,900 --> 00:25:48,720
I am missing something on this subject
612
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,820
the second is that the Russians are
613
00:25:50,820 --> 00:25:53,159
fighting for the buffer zone way more
614
00:25:53,159 --> 00:25:55,200
than it should be expected they are
615
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,120
defending the area they do counter
616
00:25:57,120 --> 00:25:59,400
attacks and the Frontline units have
617
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,380
been completely involved in this fight
618
00:26:01,380 --> 00:26:03,299
if I have to believe the maps that show
619
00:26:03,299 --> 00:26:05,279
the military units the Russian Reserve
620
00:26:05,279 --> 00:26:08,460
is still intact and in position so only
621
00:26:08,460 --> 00:26:10,980
the front line units have been involved
622
00:26:10,980 --> 00:26:13,279
so far but I can't explain this either
623
00:26:13,279 --> 00:26:16,380
maybe the Ukrainian attack was so weak
624
00:26:16,380 --> 00:26:18,000
that this option was indeed practical
625
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,059
but I don't believe so maybe they're not
626
00:26:21,059 --> 00:26:23,159
confident that the main line of defense
627
00:26:23,159 --> 00:26:25,559
is capable of being a serious obstacle
628
00:26:25,559 --> 00:26:28,260
but I don't think so as well so I
629
00:26:28,260 --> 00:26:30,720
suppose we will have to wait and see the
630
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,799
third Oddity is well three months ago
631
00:26:33,799 --> 00:26:35,940
ukrainians were running out of their
632
00:26:35,940 --> 00:26:38,520
defenses so
633
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,919
where is the Russian Air Force the
634
00:26:40,919 --> 00:26:42,720
Russians are indeed flying more than at
635
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,120
the beginning of 2023. helicopters and
636
00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:46,799
their to ground aircraft are an
637
00:26:46,799 --> 00:26:48,360
important component of the Russian
638
00:26:48,360 --> 00:26:50,760
reaction to Ukrainian offensive however
639
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,039
a large portion of the Russian Air Force
640
00:26:53,039 --> 00:26:55,400
is still not involved in the operations
641
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,580
while other units are overworked why are
642
00:26:59,580 --> 00:27:01,260
we not seeing an increase of the
643
00:27:01,260 --> 00:27:03,120
operation of the Russian Air Force as
644
00:27:03,120 --> 00:27:06,419
Ukrainian missile Supply is running out
645
00:27:06,419 --> 00:27:08,820
I have an idea about this because I've
646
00:27:08,820 --> 00:27:11,640
heard unconfirmed news so take this with
647
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,880
that Boulder of salt that Ukraine
648
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,460
received through Shady International
649
00:27:17,460 --> 00:27:21,059
channels a substantial supply of s300
650
00:27:21,059 --> 00:27:23,640
missiles but this is as I said totally
651
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,919
unconfirmed uh particularly considering
652
00:27:25,919 --> 00:27:28,620
that ukrainians and to a lesser extent
653
00:27:28,620 --> 00:27:31,320
the Russians have vacuumed all the
654
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,320
available International resources of the
655
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,860
type of weapons that were just available
656
00:27:37,860 --> 00:27:39,779
OB usually they didn't do this
657
00:27:39,779 --> 00:27:42,240
themselves there have been several
658
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,760
intermediaries so I will be keeping a
659
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,740
close eye on the air operations despite
660
00:27:46,740 --> 00:27:49,799
the scarcity of news in the last few
661
00:27:49,799 --> 00:27:52,320
weeks so this is a picture of what is
662
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,779
happening basically a high technology is
663
00:27:54,779 --> 00:27:57,779
stalemate between the two sides is there
664
00:27:57,779 --> 00:28:00,419
any way are there any circumstances that
665
00:28:00,419 --> 00:28:02,700
could change the situation
666
00:28:02,700 --> 00:28:07,039
well I personally believe so
667
00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:09,480
there are two types of events that could
668
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,179
change the situation on the battlefield
669
00:28:11,179 --> 00:28:14,400
military or political from the military
670
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,600
perspective the question is how could
671
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,179
ukrainians achieve their objectives and
672
00:28:21,179 --> 00:28:23,460
I think there are two possibilities but
673
00:28:23,460 --> 00:28:25,799
let's proceed with order I have seen
674
00:28:25,799 --> 00:28:27,900
different numbers in different analysis
675
00:28:27,900 --> 00:28:30,600
but so far no more than a few brigades
676
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,419
of the four set apart for the offensive
677
00:28:33,419 --> 00:28:35,880
has been used the losses have been quite
678
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,919
heavy in the order of 20 30 percent of
679
00:28:37,919 --> 00:28:39,900
the force which means that those
680
00:28:39,900 --> 00:28:43,260
brigades that were earmarked as the can
681
00:28:43,260 --> 00:28:47,120
opener for the offensive are basically
682
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:51,360
no longer operational as large units you
683
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:52,679
always need to remember that the
684
00:28:52,679 --> 00:28:55,140
strength of a large unit like Brigade or
685
00:28:55,140 --> 00:28:57,600
division is more of the sum of its parts
686
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,059
and it derives from the combination of
687
00:29:00,059 --> 00:29:02,100
the different elements since these
688
00:29:02,100 --> 00:29:04,440
elements are never worn down uniformly
689
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,679
even at 10 percent of losses might alter
690
00:29:07,679 --> 00:29:10,380
the composition in such a way that makes
691
00:29:10,380 --> 00:29:12,960
the unit way less effective and
692
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,000
according to Nato doctrina unit that has
693
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,279
suffered 10 percent losses should be
694
00:29:17,279 --> 00:29:20,820
retired and refitted however the bulk of
695
00:29:20,820 --> 00:29:23,100
Ukrainian offensive forces are still
696
00:29:23,100 --> 00:29:26,039
intact and at least according to the
697
00:29:26,039 --> 00:29:28,440
ukrainians the big push Is Yet To Come
698
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,320
is there any way to use them to break
699
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:32,820
through the Russian lines and do
700
00:29:32,820 --> 00:29:35,820
something well maybe yes the sector
701
00:29:35,820 --> 00:29:38,580
around the town of Novel Michael is
702
00:29:38,580 --> 00:29:41,159
quite strange this is where the front
703
00:29:41,159 --> 00:29:43,100
line turns North from the general
704
00:29:43,100 --> 00:29:46,799
East-West orientation in the South there
705
00:29:46,799 --> 00:29:49,140
is just one line of defense quite close
706
00:29:49,140 --> 00:29:51,360
to the line of contact and there are no
707
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,640
Russian Reserve units behind the line
708
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,980
north of the era there's the donax
709
00:29:55,980 --> 00:29:58,080
metropolitan area where the most of the
710
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,020
forces are actually part of the exodonix
711
00:30:01,020 --> 00:30:03,659
militia which is definitely not the best
712
00:30:03,659 --> 00:30:06,539
part of the Russian forces it seems that
713
00:30:06,539 --> 00:30:08,220
the Russian Alliance here are thinner
714
00:30:08,220 --> 00:30:11,520
than in the North or in the South and it
715
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,320
seems that there is no backstop in case
716
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,260
of penetration maybe it has maybe always
717
00:30:16,260 --> 00:30:17,940
considered that I'm just an Armature
718
00:30:17,940 --> 00:30:21,240
General maybe an infantry push executed
719
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,880
ignoring the losses could open a bridge
720
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,940
wide enough for the mechanized units to
721
00:30:26,940 --> 00:30:28,559
penetrate there's going to be no
722
00:30:28,559 --> 00:30:30,840
surprise as we said before but Ukrainian
723
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,360
reserves should be able to reach the
724
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,059
area quite quickly while the Russian
725
00:30:36,059 --> 00:30:39,120
reserves will have a longer route and
726
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:41,940
might get there late there are no major
727
00:30:41,940 --> 00:30:44,460
roads leading to this point but a few
728
00:30:44,460 --> 00:30:46,559
kilometers in the Russian occupied
729
00:30:46,559 --> 00:30:48,899
territory there is a Motorway going
730
00:30:48,899 --> 00:30:51,360
south to marjupon the railway going
731
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,399
through the land bridge is also not far
732
00:30:53,399 --> 00:30:56,580
off so even a moderate penetration could
733
00:30:56,580 --> 00:30:59,220
really create logistical problems to the
734
00:30:59,220 --> 00:31:00,840
forces in the land bridge they will be
735
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,520
reduced with basically with the code
736
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,220
Post Road moreover moving south
737
00:31:05,220 --> 00:31:07,919
Ukrainian forces would have the pre-war
738
00:31:07,919 --> 00:31:10,260
fortifications on their Left Flank which
739
00:31:10,260 --> 00:31:12,539
would help in the advance or another
740
00:31:12,539 --> 00:31:15,000
possibility is rather than pointing
741
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,220
straight South there could be an upper
742
00:31:17,220 --> 00:31:19,980
count around volada menacing the side
743
00:31:19,980 --> 00:31:21,720
and the rear of the Russian defensive
744
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:23,940
line This sector so far hasn't been
745
00:31:23,940 --> 00:31:26,340
really active here there is that famous
746
00:31:26,340 --> 00:31:29,340
stronghold The Menagerie but that's
747
00:31:29,340 --> 00:31:32,640
basically it the ukrainians though have
748
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,720
a number of heavy units right behind it
749
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,380
or in the nearby Valley canovo silica
750
00:31:40,380 --> 00:31:42,600
does this mean anything
751
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,000
we'll see with this option is also
752
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,640
possible that since ukrainians have
753
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,460
received some little known amphibious
754
00:31:50,460 --> 00:31:53,220
capabilities that a diversionary attack
755
00:31:53,220 --> 00:31:55,640
may happen across the niepe river
756
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,020
exactly at the opposite end of the front
757
00:31:58,020 --> 00:32:00,960
line and this may cause a really bad
758
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,659
headache to the Russian reserves so it
759
00:32:03,659 --> 00:32:06,299
seems a possibility to me well what do
760
00:32:06,299 --> 00:32:07,679
you think let me know in the comments
761
00:32:07,679 --> 00:32:10,320
below anyhow in the same way and noticed
762
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:12,720
it the Russians probably noticed it as
763
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,240
well so there's probably something else
764
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,840
going on that I don't know and
765
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,480
we'll see but this is not everything I
766
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,279
personally see another possibility that
767
00:32:23,279 --> 00:32:25,740
is even more interesting so behind the
768
00:32:25,740 --> 00:32:28,020
northern front which by the way in the
769
00:32:28,020 --> 00:32:30,360
last couple of days is actually moving a
770
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,120
little bit there is a large Russian
771
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,220
heavy force that has been there for
772
00:32:35,220 --> 00:32:37,740
months uh since the end of Ukrainian
773
00:32:37,740 --> 00:32:40,980
offensive doing basically nothing or
774
00:32:40,980 --> 00:32:42,899
better they have been re-equipped and
775
00:32:42,899 --> 00:32:45,720
they have been training uh what are they
776
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,440
going to do well nobody knows they look
777
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,279
like a theater reserved to me and sooner
778
00:32:53,279 --> 00:32:55,679
or later it will be used we also know
779
00:32:55,679 --> 00:32:57,960
that they are being used as a training
780
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:01,260
ground for mobilized units but the same
781
00:33:01,260 --> 00:33:03,600
units are also receiving all the most
782
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,940
modern equipment so this is a Potential
783
00:33:05,940 --> 00:33:08,039
Threat and makes the northern front a
784
00:33:08,039 --> 00:33:10,520
bad candidate for an offensive
785
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,700
but what if
786
00:33:13,700 --> 00:33:17,360
Ukrainian tried a quick attack
787
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,460
beyond the Russian border toward Belgard
788
00:33:20,460 --> 00:33:23,039
the Russian border is not as heavily
789
00:33:23,039 --> 00:33:25,320
defended as the front line in Ukraine
790
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,019
and Belgard is just 20 kilometers inside
791
00:33:28,019 --> 00:33:30,720
Russia and it is an extremely important
792
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,419
logistic hub for the entire Northern
793
00:33:33,419 --> 00:33:36,600
front the Russians must protect it and
794
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,880
it would be assured that this reserved
795
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,880
will be moved to counter the attack and
796
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,320
once their serves have moved the
797
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,480
northern front becomes vulnerable and
798
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,640
the second attack in the areas Batavia
799
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,820
could penetrate very deep potentially
800
00:33:50,820 --> 00:33:53,279
maybe moving the front line back of
801
00:33:53,279 --> 00:33:57,120
another 50 to 100 kilometers and undoing
802
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,120
the conquest of a large part of the
803
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:03,539
lugansko blast okay okay okay I'm well
804
00:34:03,539 --> 00:34:05,700
aware of the political consequences that
805
00:34:05,700 --> 00:34:07,679
such an operation may have but they
806
00:34:07,679 --> 00:34:10,619
can't stop thinking that threatening one
807
00:34:10,619 --> 00:34:13,379
of the major enemies logistic hubs is
808
00:34:13,379 --> 00:34:16,560
the move that makes more sense the
809
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,480
ukrainians have shown a constant
810
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,339
willingness to bend the rules and
811
00:34:20,339 --> 00:34:23,460
limitations imposed by us and NATO and I
812
00:34:23,460 --> 00:34:25,560
suppose that when you are desperate for
813
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:26,719
survival
814
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:30,359
Nothing Else Matters anyway the same
815
00:34:30,359 --> 00:34:32,040
applies I believe that the Russians have
816
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,980
thought about this possibility too and
817
00:34:34,980 --> 00:34:38,699
yeah let's wait and see so these are the
818
00:34:38,699 --> 00:34:40,260
two military options that I see
819
00:34:40,260 --> 00:34:42,719
ukrainians may have to conclude this
820
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,540
offensive with a success however I don't
821
00:34:45,540 --> 00:34:47,879
think that any of them has a high
822
00:34:47,879 --> 00:34:50,339
probability of being successful they may
823
00:34:50,339 --> 00:34:53,580
be but is difficult
824
00:34:53,580 --> 00:34:55,800
and the reason I think so is quite
825
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,680
simple these units that Ukraine has
826
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,200
prepared for the offensive are probably
827
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,660
the last units available Ukrainian
828
00:35:03,660 --> 00:35:06,780
population is now depleted the losses
829
00:35:06,780 --> 00:35:09,420
are high 12 million of ukrainians are
830
00:35:09,420 --> 00:35:12,780
abroad and there are press gangs in the
831
00:35:12,780 --> 00:35:15,540
street forcing people in the Army then
832
00:35:15,540 --> 00:35:17,280
there are not much more assets that the
833
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,980
West could give maybe if we wait a
834
00:35:19,980 --> 00:35:21,599
couple of years the Western industrial
835
00:35:21,599 --> 00:35:24,780
production will catch up but governments
836
00:35:24,780 --> 00:35:27,119
change the popular sentiment in the west
837
00:35:27,119 --> 00:35:30,839
is not as compact as the governments are
838
00:35:30,839 --> 00:35:33,420
in supporting Ukraine and the new
839
00:35:33,420 --> 00:35:36,300
governments May reflect this attitude if
840
00:35:36,300 --> 00:35:38,880
ukrainians burn all of these forces in
841
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,099
an offensive then there will be little
842
00:35:41,099 --> 00:35:44,400
less remaining the Russian reserves will
843
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,800
keep growing and then it will be the
844
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,079
Russian turn I think that ukrainians
845
00:35:49,079 --> 00:35:51,839
would be better off trying defensive but
846
00:35:51,839 --> 00:35:54,660
saving a good proportion of their most
847
00:35:54,660 --> 00:35:58,440
modern systems and best trained forces
848
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,579
to form a strategic Reserve in being
849
00:36:02,579 --> 00:36:05,400
like a fleeting being just to hold a
850
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:06,720
position till
851
00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:09,720
something else happens and this brings
852
00:36:09,720 --> 00:36:11,880
us to the possible political events that
853
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,040
could cause a successful Ukrainian
854
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,800
offensive sure the most effective but
855
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,260
least likely would be a Russian change
856
00:36:19,260 --> 00:36:21,540
of regime this seem to have happened a
857
00:36:21,540 --> 00:36:23,460
few weeks ago but it turned out to be an
858
00:36:23,460 --> 00:36:26,520
enormous farce that actually left Putin
859
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,280
stronger than before I know that many
860
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:30,839
will not share this opinion but this
861
00:36:30,839 --> 00:36:32,820
video is already very long so I won't go
862
00:36:32,820 --> 00:36:35,460
in any more detail the other possibility
863
00:36:35,460 --> 00:36:37,440
is the intervention of some of the
864
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,780
Eastern European countries in the world
865
00:36:39,780 --> 00:36:43,079
under National Authority while two or
866
00:36:43,079 --> 00:36:45,420
three polish divisions could do wonders
867
00:36:45,420 --> 00:36:48,119
for the offensive I am not sure that the
868
00:36:48,119 --> 00:36:50,280
Russians will appreciate the difference
869
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,880
between NATO and National Authority I
870
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:55,859
suspect that in this case we will have
871
00:36:55,859 --> 00:36:59,220
the answer of some of the questions that
872
00:36:59,220 --> 00:37:02,160
we have or at least I have I think that
873
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,200
we will learn very quickly where the
874
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,480
Russian Air Force is we will learn how
875
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,060
many any cruise and ballistic missiles
876
00:37:09,060 --> 00:37:10,619
are remaining in the Russian
877
00:37:10,619 --> 00:37:13,380
availability and spoiler alert I believe
878
00:37:13,380 --> 00:37:15,660
the Russians stopped firing Cruz and
879
00:37:15,660 --> 00:37:18,420
ballistic missiles just short of the
880
00:37:18,420 --> 00:37:21,000
number necessary for a massive attack on
881
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:24,359
European airfields I may be wrong
882
00:37:24,359 --> 00:37:27,079
but I hope I will never be proven right
883
00:37:27,079 --> 00:37:30,900
but finally the most impactful political
884
00:37:30,900 --> 00:37:34,680
event could be a cease-fired followed by
885
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,839
negotiations and this is the options
886
00:37:36,839 --> 00:37:39,660
that I personally favor again I'm sure
887
00:37:39,660 --> 00:37:41,700
many won't agree with me but I believe
888
00:37:41,700 --> 00:37:44,300
that saving lives is a priority
889
00:37:44,300 --> 00:37:47,099
ukrainians have already done a lot they
890
00:37:47,099 --> 00:37:49,800
already inflicted several defeats to the
891
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,140
Russians they should be realistic and
892
00:37:52,140 --> 00:37:54,740
accept open negotiations while they can
893
00:37:54,740 --> 00:37:58,560
if nothing else to rebuild their forces
894
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,200
and be ready in the future for a second
895
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,260
round I would prefer not I think
896
00:38:04,260 --> 00:38:06,420
everyone would prefer not but I would
897
00:38:06,420 --> 00:38:09,240
understand ukrainians I really really
898
00:38:09,240 --> 00:38:11,640
would like to wake up one morning and
899
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,579
discover that the Gans are now silent
900
00:38:14,579 --> 00:38:16,800
and I can go back doing videos about
901
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,760
flight dynamics that nobody watches
902
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:22,680
thank you very much for watching this
903
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,619
video so far please if you can do the
904
00:38:25,619 --> 00:38:28,320
usual YouTube stuff that is subscribe
905
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,599
like hit the Bell to get all the
906
00:38:30,599 --> 00:38:33,119
notifications the algorithm lately
907
00:38:33,119 --> 00:38:36,240
hasn't been really kind to me so any
908
00:38:36,240 --> 00:38:38,820
help is really appreciated and if you
909
00:38:38,820 --> 00:38:40,380
like this show and if you want to
910
00:38:40,380 --> 00:38:42,540
contribute to keep it going while there
911
00:38:42,540 --> 00:38:44,579
is pattern you can become a member you
912
00:38:44,579 --> 00:38:46,920
can do a one-off donations you can buy a
913
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:48,540
model for your models there is an
914
00:38:48,540 --> 00:38:49,980
affiliate link below I have a small
915
00:38:49,980 --> 00:38:52,260
percentage there is no extra cost for
916
00:38:52,260 --> 00:38:54,720
you final thought for all those who are
917
00:38:54,720 --> 00:38:57,119
supporting the channel already I would
918
00:38:57,119 --> 00:38:59,520
like to hug you all you are in my heart
919
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:04,560
you have no idea how important you are
920
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,920
so thank you very much for watching
921
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,680
and see you next time
922
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,760
and stop
66916
Can't find what you're looking for?
Get subtitles in any language from opensubtitles.com, and translate them here.