Original subtitles

all right Alexander let's talk about the

grain deal we have yet to do a video on

uh the grain deal me and you but a lot

has happened

where should we begin do you want to

start with the actual uh breaking down

of the grain deal which from what I

understand is not so much Russia pulling

out of the great deal but it's just

letting the grain deal the three months

letting it expire and there's another

three months

that the according to Putin the

collective West Ukraine and the

collective West the EU they can get

their act together and agree to to the

terms that the Russians have and maybe

at the end of three months the grain

deal can resume other than that I

believe it's it's terminated officially

I'm I'm maybe I'm summarizing the

details of of the contract the

agreements

too simply but that's my general

understanding so we have the grain deal

we have the afterwards of the after the

the grade deal which is what I for lack

of a better word you can call it a

blockade maybe of of the Black Sea I

don't know maybe there's another word

that can describe what the Russian

Ministry of Defense said with the ships

transiting into Odessa and then we have

the response from the collective West to

the announcement for the ministry of

Defense so let's let's start from the

the beginning and work our way up to to

where we are today yeah let let's do

that so let's start from the absolute

beginning I mean the grain deal was

initially agreed between the Russians

the ukrainians turkey and the UN and it

started on the 2nd of July last year and

it was originally for six months and it

was a reciprocal deal so the the deal

was that the Russians would not

interfere with shipping leaving Odessa

and other Ukrainian ports carrying grain

now now the Russians up to this point

and this is an important point to say

and to stress they had not up to that

point interfered with Ukrainian grain

ships

from the moment the special military

operation had started and they had not

imposed a formal blockade on Ukrainian

boards Ukraine's ships weren't leaving

Odessa at that time

for various reasons and one of them may

have been that they planted lots of sea

mines in the approaches to Odessa in

anticipation of a Russian amphibious

Landing which never happened and their

ships weren't really Keen to travel

through these minefields so there was no

no blockade at that time but the

Russians did this deal they said right

the Ukrainian ships can leave the

minefields can be cleared Ukraine can

clear its own mine feels and in return a

number of conditions firstly the EU will

lift all restrictions on the re-export

of Russian grain fertilizer and other

agricultural products through EU ports

the EU will lift Insurance

sanctions on ships transporting Russian

grain from Russian ports and EU ports

and

there will be a mechanism created

whereby one Russian Bank

the Russian agricultural bank is Recon

reconnected to the Swift into bank

payment system so that it can receive

payments the Russia can receive payments

for the food which it is exporting so

that was the original deal and it was

for six months it was a six month deal

what happened is what has happened so

often

over the course not just to this

particular conflict that we're in now

but ever since the start of the

Ukrainian crisis way back in 2014 or you

could go back even further to the orange

Revolution a deal is done terms are

agreed

Ukraine

doesn't Implement its side of the deal

nor does nor does the EU

so six months come up

the Russian agricultural bank has not

been reconnected to Swift

insurance cover for Russian ships has

not been provided there's still problems

getting food and fertilizer through uh

EU ports Russian food and fertilizer

through EU ports but in the meantime

Ukrainian ships are sailing from Odessa

another Ukrainian ports now what I've

just said is not controversial

the UN Secretariat has agreed that the

terms of the deal were not implemented

the EU Ukrainian side of the deal was

not implemented

and so has kavasovlu who was the former

foreign minister of turkey but anyway

erdogan who played an important role

brokering the deal and whose ships

played warships played an important role

clearing the mines and escorting these

Ukrainian ships he'd invested an awful

lot in this deal he persuaded Putin at

the end of the first six month extension

to extend the deal for another three

months and this is all done on promises

that this time all the problems with a

deal would be sorted out they weren't

sorted out

nonetheless after three months the

Russians agreed to extend it again they

got exactly the same promises they also

I think by this point

wanted to help erdogan because of course

he had a difficult election coming and

he was able to use the fact that the

grain deal was operating as part of his

election platform

so they agreed a further extension in

other words for another six months but

they made it very clear that that was

the last extension so unless these

problems were resolved the problems

would not resolved

and Putin has said we're tired of being

strong along we're not prepared to

extend the grain deal any further and

that was what happened on Monday it was

not Russia pulling out of the grain deal

exactly or canceling the grain deal it

was the Russians simply saying we are no

longer agreeing to extend it we are not

participating it any longer there's been

another twist to this because as part of

the grain deal

safe corridors were created for

Ukrainian grain ships to pass through

the Black Sea as a Ukrainian grain ships

these are grain ships from various

countries but they're traveling to and

from Ukrainian ports now the problem is

the Russians say that what happened was

that totally contrary to the original

terms of the original grain deal Ukraine

was using those corridors to smuggle

weapons both into and out of Ukraine

they say the explosives that were used

in the first attack on the Kirch Bridge

back in September for example was

smuggled through this Corridor this

precise Corridor went to Turkey went to

Georgia from Georgia they went in back

into Russia this circuit is through they

also say that Ukraine has been using

this area of sea

to send motherships from which these

seaborne drones are launched which have

carried out attacks on sevastable or

tried to carry out attacks

non-serviceable upon Russian warships

controlling the pipelines and which also

attacked on Monday successfully the

Kirch bridge for a second time so the

Russians have said not only are they not

prepared to renew the grain deal

third time

but they are no longer

going to allow Ukraine or any ship of

any kind to operate in these Waters so

when you said that they've imposed the

blockade that is exactly what they have

effectively done they have said that

this area of seas contested any ship of

any nationality that is navigating in

this area body of water does so at its

own risk in effect that means that

insurance companies in the west will not

ensure ships

into it to travel through this area of

water and of course the other thing that

the Russians have done is that they have

launched a

absolutely massive sustained

bombardment with missiles and drones

of all of these ports a desk

um nikolaev other ports in this area

they've apparently destroyed all the

port facilities which in effect makes

these these ports essentially unusable

and that's going to stop obviously

export of grain through Ukrainian ports

and it's also according to the Russians

going to stop motherships leaving these

ports with these drones and launching

attacks on Russian installations again

in future so this is where we are

uh what do you make of the U.S and

Turkish response because both the U.S

and turkey in their own different ways

they've said essentially that there's

nothing they can do they're not going to

escort ships into uh Odessa that's

exactly what's happening now I should

say that there's been a constant media

barrage particularly in Britain about

the West intervening sending warships

into the Black Sea

escorting Ukrainian ships in other words

going head-to-head with the Russians now

the US hasn't got any warships in the

Black Sea and the Turks have closed the

Dardanelles and I think that they mean

that for real they're not going to

reopen the Dardanelles these Straits in

order to allow American warships to

enter the Black Sea so it's not

technically possible at the moment and

even if it was the United States doesn't

want to send its warships up against

Russian warships and missiles and

aircraft in the Black Sea I mean that

would risk world war three and turkey

also is not prepared to take that risks

for itself there's as we've discussed in

many programs a limit

to how far erdogan himself is prepared

to go in order to pull Putin's tail he

understands that he needs to work with

Putin in the end he's not prepared to do

this either now the worst threats before

at the time when the grain deal was

first extended that if the Russians

didn't agree to the extension the

ukrainians and the Turks would continue

with it by themselves and the Turks

would escort grain ships

it's now absolutely clear that that was

a bluff and the bluff has been called

and besides with the destruction of the

ports I mean it doesn't even make any

sense to allege that because to to you

know to make that kind of bluff anymore

because the port facilities are in no

condition to handle grain carcos or

anyone else anything else

yeah there's one thing that you uh left

out actually

which is that Putin announced that he's

gonna give grain to countries that need

it for free yes so what I listen to you

and what you've what you've explained my

question to you is the way you've

explained how the Russians have have

game planned this out

it sounds to me like uh

the the Russians were 10 steps ahead of

of Ukraine and the collective West as

they were maneuvering in this uh this

grain deal because they've

they it seems like they understood that

Ukraine is going to take another another

shot at Crimea or the courage Bridge it

seems like they understood that

and sure enough they did

and

knowing that Ukraine the collective West

we're not going to be able to restrain

themselves because they're absolutely

obsessed with uh with hidden Crimea they

then game planned it out

so that they can create the the Dynamics

so so that the the port Odessa and and

launching these uh these attacks towards

Crimea and shipping this this grain out

of Odessa and bringing weapons in you

know weapons in Grain out uh it seems

like the game plans this so that it

would be a non-issue going forward they

uh

they created this blockade okay so

Ukraine attacks Odessa they go to the

International Community to their

Partners they say you see

we gave them a warning we extended out

of good faith and trust they broke that

agreement even after we warned them not

to hit creme again uh China India Brazil

what can we do we're gonna have to put a

blockade those countries say we

understand I mean they're they're

hitting your territory you have to do

what you have to do

they put a blockade they then say okay

well the insurance companies they're uh

they're not going to want Insurance

ships but it's the United States maybe

the United States will ensure the ships

or maybe they'll find a way to to work

around the insurance company so we'll

destroy the ports and then they

understood that okay they're going to do

all these things to make it so that the

the ships cannot uh enter the Odessa

Port they're interested that they're

going to have an information war on

their on their uh hands and it's going

to be that Russia starving the world and

so Russia says okay well free grain I

mean do you get what I'm asking you

absolutely do you think that the

Russians understood where this is going

to go to a certain extent and they and

they planned this all out their moves

they planned them out they've learned

them out very thoroughly and they

understood everything and they planned

their every move and they anticipated

every step that the West would take now

first of all can I just uh say that

again Ukraine and the West especially

Ukraine has acted very foolishly in this

affair because the grain deal was

working well for Ukraine it was

providing Ukraine with 500 million

dollars of Revenue every year every

month every month six billion dollars of

Revenue bear in mind that Ukraine is

currently running a trade deficit of 11

billion dollars

um a year so it's got a big trade

deficit it's economies being entirely

propped up by the United States 60 to 70

percent of its exports are food products

so it's lost

essentially that vitally important money

stream which is one of the few money

streams left that Ukraine had which is

independent of the West now it's gone

and why is it gone because they couldn't

resist the he uh temptation to cheat on

the deal so they they did what they

always do they they

take

but they don't give the Minsk agreement

it's the same story if you think about

it all the way back to you know the

maidan events and the result is that the

Russians planned it all extremely

carefully so the Russians renewed the

deal again and again they were talking

to their friends all the time around the

global South Putin had a long

conversation with Cyril ramaphosa the

South African president in which he

explained it all to him very carefully

they've hosting an African Summit

they're very very careful to prepare

their friends including by the way even

the Turks about what was coming

the other one wasn't pleased but he

wasn't taken by surprise

and then as you absolutely right he say

they anticipated every single move so

first of all Putin says well we're

pulling we're not renewing but you've

got three months if you're prepared to

go ahead and uh um you know do all the

other things that you promised

then you know we'll reconsider our

decision but of course everybody knows

that many of the things that

were Pro all of the things that were

promised are simply not going to happen

I mean the most important one of which

the two most important one of which were

not even in Ukraine's Power by the way

they were the reconnection of the

Russian agricultural back to Swift

and the uh lifting and sanctions on

insurance of Russian shippers exporting

grain and the EU

like Ukraine has never complied with

that it's not complied with that because

Ukraine has objected and by the way so

has the United States so Putin on the

one hand says look

if you prepare to come back in three

months we'll reconsider in the meantime

he's military I'm making absolutely sure

that the seas are blocked these Miss are

these drone attacks are prevented in

future and by the way they're making

absolutely sure that the grain deal

cannot be reactivated because the ports

are destroyed and then when as an

attempt to stir up an outcry Putin comes

back and says look we're prepared to

provide you with all the grain you need

for free we produce far more food than

Ukraine does anyway their Harvest this

year is going to be smaller much smaller

than it was last year so you know the

extent to which they can fulfill their

commitments anyway is beginning to

become problematic we will step in we

will provide you with all the food you

need we're prepared to do it for free

and of course in terms of insurance

cover well it's different from what it

was last year because we've now sorted

it out we've got our own insurance

operating to provide cover for our own

ships so they did plan it out they

planned it out meticulously and they

also very very thoroughly planned out

the attacks on these ports and the

military side of the operation has been

extremely thoroughly planned and

executed as well

and it just all comes down to the point

you made earlier which is the Russians

understood that

the uh the olensky regime and and the

West

they would not be able to resist a

strike another attempt to strike at

Crimea yeah and and what did they gain

out of it they lost so much and what did

they gain out of it

but okay nothing I mean they've long

they've gained absolutely I mean right

they've damaged the bridge it will take

a few weeks to repair and then it will

be repaired and be back in operation

whereas Ukraine has completely lost

operation of its ports

and can no longer export food which

there is major export

and of course everyone is now talking

about how this this opens up The Path

towards uh towards Odessa which

absolutely exactly right now everyone

views as one of the big prizes

moves that yeah crisis moves that Russia

is going to make in the future we don't

we don't know if they're going to and if

they do we don't know when but obviously

Odessa is what are the cities that

everybody talks about as far as conflict

is concerned correct

and of course um all of this at a time

when Ukraine's offensive remains stuck

but yeah if that were Ukraine's air

defenses well this is this is right yeah

okay this is this is this is another

twist in this because of course

um uh as we all know when Russians

launched missile strikes against

Ukrainian cities

um Ukraine invariably and always claims

that it's shot down

90 of the missiles and drones that have

been launched and they try to do that

initially as this particular strike was

underway but the damage on this occasion

was far too extensive to conceal so

they've now had to admit that most of

the missiles are in fact getting through

most of the drones are getting through

it's the first time they've ever done

that and they're saying that them

defenses in the Odessa area which were

the strongest by the way apparently

outside of Kiev itself that their

defenses their air defenses have been

massively depleted and have essentially

broken down which is why the Russians

are able to launch these missile attacks

and drones drone attacks with all this

deadly effect I personally think that

this is

and admission of what has been true all

along and it should again act as the

warning to all of those people who take

all of these claims by Ukraine to

intercept uh missiles and things so

seriously I mean notice for example that

Ukraine says that they have I mean what

are the missiles that the Russians have

used two of the missiles that the

Russians have used in these attacks on

Odessa the Onyx missile which is

Supersonic and the kh-22 which is

supersonic the ukrainians have admitted

that they don't have the means to

intercept them

and yet Ukraine simultaneously is

claiming that it is able to shoot down

Hypersonic missiles which is so much

faster they can't shoot down Onyx

missiles and kh-22 missiles and they

didn't say that they can't shoot them

down over a desk they suggest they said

that they can't shoot them down at all

then realistically they're not shooting

down Hypersonic in gel missiles either

and yet there are still Western

reporters and commentators and

journalists who are taking those claims

that Ukraine shot down those kinshaw

missiles with Patriot Mist systems in

Kiev is true well this this episode in

Odessa should be a warning to people not

to take these claims Ukraine makes about

these successful interceptions as

um you know real

yeah all right let's uh wrap up the

video also by the way uh before I wrap

up the video uh from what I understand

the Eastern European countries the

Poland and uh

I believe Bulgaria Romania that imposed

blocks on Ukraine food I understand

they're not going to lift those blocks

either even though you have the

situation in Odessa now so it doesn't

look like they're going to be coming to

Ukraine's uh Aid either no the null I

mean this is going to be a massive blow

to Ukraine's agriculture which is

already in deep crisis unsurprisingly

given that there is a war on now it's

not going to result in an immediate

collapse of the Ukrainian economy

because what's going to happen is

Ukraine has lost six to ten billion

dollars of export Revenue

but

it's friends in Washington and Brussels

will try to make that up and they will

to some degree but of course it

increases Ukraine's dependence on the

west and if money flows from the West

start to slack and which they probably

will by the way then of course Ukraine

risks descending into a big crisis

because it is still importing Goods but

it doesn't have exports with which to

earn Revenue to pay for those Imports

yeah all right we'll uh leave it there

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