Original subtitles

What is happening now in the south of the front and what to expect in the east in the near future.

The south of Ukraine, Zaporizhzhya region, is the main theater of military operations.

The three main locations are Piatykhatky, Robotyne and Staromlynivka.

Piatykhatky now play a role very similar to Bakhmut,

they are pulling the resource of the enemy trying to repel the village.

The main resource donor is Vasylivka,

which in turn is the top of a powerful defense triangle Vasylivka-Tokmak-Melitopol.

Uniform grinding of the enemy forces is in progress, we do not expect fast action.

Robotyne is, in fact, the main stronghold of the occupants,

behind which the main line of defense opens. In fact, it is the headboard of the second line,

the peculiarity of which is that if this head is cut off, the collapse of the bulky construction

along Highway 0408: Novoprokopivka, Ilchenkove, Solodka Balka will occur.

Currently, the flanks are being aligned in the location, which makes it difficult to saturate the

terrain with enemy units. As meat for slaughter in this location very actively used reservists BARS.

It is noteworthy that the counterattacks of the occupiers have been dramatically reduced.

Staromlynivka. Unlike Robotyne, the intensity of counterattacks is not reduced here.

Very tight close-quarters combat. At the same time, compared to June,

there is a decrease in the intensity of fire, which indicates the effect

of destroying enemy artillery from the second line and warehouses in the rear.

In general, here the process of aligning the flanks with the progressive pushing

of the supply line towards the main defensive line also takes place. As noted earlier, the

occupation troops had to use additional reserves, which indicates a shortage of forces for defense.

Bottom line: This bridgehead now serves two main functions.

The first is a slow, very cautious pushing of the Russian supply line

up to the 2nd line. The second function is to "exsanguinate" the Russian troops.

Both goals are being achieved. But the essence of the process is not haste, the essence of the

process is the process itself. And the Kherson resource in Staromlynivka is an indicator of this.

In the east of Ukraine, namely in the Lugansk direction,

the group of Russian troops "West" is operating. This group is one

of the most combat-ready and has recently become excessively active.

After fleeing from Kharkiv region, the occupiers began to form a group for revenge.

And according to their preliminary plans, in early 2023 they were supposed to launch a decisive

counteroffensive. But something went wrong, and the "West" group didn’t move until July.

A brief analysis and what we should expect from it in the foreseeable future.

Its strength is 50 thousand men, which is equal to 63 full-fledged Battalion tactical groups,

but there is a nuance. It is understaffed just like the others we've looked at earlier,

though not as critically.... They do not have the ability to fully perform their combat function.

Secondly. In an offensive, one fully manned BTG, with an established supply and control system,

can cover a front of 2 to 4 kilometers. Otherwise, the functionality decreases,

efficiency decreases and 1 to 4 BTGs are required per 1 km of front.

That is, in order to fully offensive in this area, the enemy needs to have about 90 BTGs,

and fully staffed. Their offensive potential on the wide front is limited,

and on the narrow front, requires the concentration of significant forces.

Yes, even this limited mass can move and operate, but.....

But the Ukrainian defense was formed taking into account the expected offensive in winter

2023, which never happened, which allowed the defense to strengthen.

What's the result? The enemy's only goal is to draw the defense forces into a protracted,

but very active and intense confrontation in several locations in the "East",

dispersing and drawing away Ukrainian forces. For more than that, they are clearly not capable.