Original subtitles

Don't dig a trap, for you will fall into it yourself... Let me explain what this means

in the context of the Ukrainian offensive.

The Ukrainian General Staff officially reported that since the beginning of the offensive,

193 km have been liberated . 24 km in the Bakhmut direction, the rest in the southern

direction.

In the British intelligence reported that the AFU for a month were able to liberate

more territory than the enemy was able to capture during its 6-month campaign. The Ukrainian

General Staff data is the confirmed and assigned territory for the Ukrainian defense forces

and does not take into account the "advancement zone" or "gray zone," which is a significant

area. But now the success of the AFU's actions should be counted not in kilometers (although

this is undoubtedly important too), but in destroyed enemy reserves.

So, according to the latest calculation of analyst Oryx, the ratio of equipment losses

from July 1 to July 10 is -140 to 71 in favor of the AFU. The losses of the Russians in

the defense exceed 2 times the losses of the Ukrainian side in the offensive.

Frontline trends...

Earlier I emphasized that it is the destruction of the enemy's reserves and forward line that

will be decisive. At the same time, according to OSINT research the AFU has liberated up

to 70 km² over the last week, while suffering losses in equipment half as much as the enemy.

In the southern direction, the enemy began to move the main strategic reserve - the 35th

General Army. Some of the researchers believe that this is the last reserve of Russia in

the South, and further will only have to remove from other parts of the front. At the same

time, the enemy itself reports that the AFU has not yet put the newly formed army corps

into battle.

Why have the losses in equipment decreased and the advance increased?

It's all about reserves. The enemy forces are not as fresh, and quick operational reserves

have already been brought in. There is evidence when the advance of the Ukrainian defense

forces was stopped not by the enemy, but by the weather. Also, effective work within the

framework of counter-battery warfare, which even a skeptic cannot fail to notice. For

every 1 Ukrainian gun destroyed, there are 20 Russian ones.

And the third component - infantry, these are those Ukrainian titans who conduct several

operations a day for each dugout or wooded area, withstand artillery fire and pull the

enemy reserves to the front line.

Combined with all of this, identifying enemy firing positions and equipment allows Ukrainian

artillery to inflict a defeat. It is a difficult titanic labor of infantry. And quickly will

not be, but the pace must build up with the exhaustion of resources in the enemy.

And what countermeasure plan did the enemy hypothetically have in place?

According to General Gerasimov's plan, the main reserves of the AFU should be constrained

by the parallel and simultaneous advance of the enemy in the Svatove and Kreminna directions

and near Avdiivka. According to the enemy's plan, this should have drawn reserves from

the South, which in turn would not allow the AFU to gain "critical weight" under the now

created conditions of a breakthrough. On those directions it is very difficult now, but the

enemy can not realize its plan and therefore fell into a trap, which he himself was preparing.

What should he do with the significant forces concentrated there, but still not enough for

a breakthrough, and their transfer to the South is a significant logistical operation?

And logistics is the basis of war and time is now a critical factor....