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Don't dig a trap, for you will fall into it
yourself... Let me explain what this means
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in the context of the Ukrainian offensive.
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The Ukrainian General Staff officially reported
that since the beginning of the offensive,
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193 km have been liberated . 24 km in the
Bakhmut direction, the rest in the southern
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direction.
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In the British intelligence reported that
the AFU for a month were able to liberate
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more territory than the enemy was able to
capture during its 6-month campaign. The Ukrainian
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General Staff data is the confirmed and assigned
territory for the Ukrainian defense forces
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and does not take into account the "advancement
zone" or "gray zone," which is a significant
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area. But now the success of the AFU's actions
should be counted not in kilometers (although
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this is undoubtedly important too), but in
destroyed enemy reserves.
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So, according to the latest calculation of
analyst Oryx, the ratio of equipment losses
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from July 1 to July 10 is -140 to 71 in favor
of the AFU. The losses of the Russians in
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the defense exceed 2 times the losses of the
Ukrainian side in the offensive.
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Frontline trends...
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Earlier I emphasized that it is the destruction
of the enemy's reserves and forward line that
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will be decisive. At the same time, according
to OSINT research the AFU has liberated up
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to 70 kmĀ² over the last week, while suffering
losses in equipment half as much as the enemy.
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In the southern direction, the enemy began
to move the main strategic reserve - the 35th
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General Army. Some of the researchers believe
that this is the last reserve of Russia in
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the South, and further will only have to remove
from other parts of the front. At the same
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time, the enemy itself reports that the AFU
has not yet put the newly formed army corps
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into battle.
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Why have the losses in equipment decreased
and the advance increased?
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It's all about reserves. The enemy forces
are not as fresh, and quick operational reserves
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have already been brought in. There is evidence
when the advance of the Ukrainian defense
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forces was stopped not by the enemy, but by
the weather. Also, effective work within the
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framework of counter-battery warfare, which
even a skeptic cannot fail to notice. For
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every 1 Ukrainian gun destroyed, there are
20 Russian ones.
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And the third component - infantry, these
are those Ukrainian titans who conduct several
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operations a day for each dugout or wooded
area, withstand artillery fire and pull the
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enemy reserves to the front line.
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Combined with all of this, identifying enemy
firing positions and equipment allows Ukrainian
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artillery to inflict a defeat. It is a difficult
titanic labor of infantry. And quickly will
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not be, but the pace must build up with the
exhaustion of resources in the enemy.
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And what countermeasure plan did the enemy
hypothetically have in place?
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According to General Gerasimov's plan, the
main reserves of the AFU should be constrained
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by the parallel and simultaneous advance of
the enemy in the Svatove and Kreminna directions
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and near Avdiivka. According to the enemy's
plan, this should have drawn reserves from
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the South, which in turn would not allow the
AFU to gain "critical weight" under the now
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created conditions of a breakthrough. On those
directions it is very difficult now, but the
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enemy can not realize its plan and therefore
fell into a trap, which he himself was preparing.
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What should he do with the significant forces
concentrated there, but still not enough for
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a breakthrough, and their transfer to the
South is a significant logistical operation?
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And logistics is the basis of war and time
is now a critical factor....
5336
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