Original subtitles

Today I will tell you about the important, about the reserves of the occupiers in the

South.

That is where the main battle reconnaissance is taking place before the decisive phase

of the counterattack.

In the south of Ukraine, the main forces of the Russian command "East" are involved and

they have almost completely entered the battle in this operating zone.

The Russian command faces a difficult choice: either request reinforcements or reorganize

its forces by combining combat formations.

However, this option could leave gaps in the main line of defense, making it vulnerable

to enemy breakout.

For now, powerful minefields, with a density of 2 mines per meter, artillery and aviation

save them from a breakthrough.

One thing confuses me.

Quantitatively, the Russian troops are in no way inferior to the Ukrainian troops trying

to advance here... neither in the number of personnel, nor in the amount of major weapons

and military equipment deployed in this operational zone.

Moreover, the enemy here is defending rather than advancing, and they need less troops

than the AFU.

Also the enemy has an advantage in the air and quantitatively prevails in volumes of

artillery and means of air defense.

Let me remind you, all the ground forces of Russia have only 11 combined arms and one

tank army deployed...

That is, the enemy is now trying to hold the southern regions of Ukraine that it occupies

with half of all its ground troops.

And still it is given to him with great difficulty...

As of today, he has not yet introduced up to two motorized rifle brigades and certain

forces and means of the 18th Division into the battle....

And that's it, at this point the enemy's strategic reserve in the Southern operating zone runs

out.

However, it is also essential not to forget that some of these forces are already engaged

in the operational zones of other directions.

So, in the event of a breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the main defense

line of the enemy, somewhere between Hola Prystan in the Kherson region and Volodymyrivka

in the Donetsk region, the enemy would be able to deploy up to three brigades simultaneously

to attempt to "contain" the breach.

However, even in the best-case scenario, it would take them up to two days to do so.

. And this is quite a likely scenario, given the fact that so far he has not been able

to completely stop the AFU in the Southern Operational Zone.

What am I getting at with all this...?

And to the fact that it is already obvious that the enemy's intention to organize and

strike at a convenient moment "a sudden and powerful blow" in an operational direction

that is unexpected for the AFU... may well lose any strategic sense...

After all, it may so happen that the enemy will have to urgently "patch up" operational

"holes" in the south with the forces and means that he prepares for this offensive...

Therefore, in my opinion, the conclusion is obvious...

The result of the whole summer campaign will depend mostly not only on how the parties

will manage their reserves in operational and strategic sense.

But how many of them will remain in combat-ready condition at the right moment and in the right

direction.

And as far as I understand, the AFU has now engaged no more than 20% of this component...

In fact, the Brownian movement between the groups of Russian troops points to what has

long been said - the "shortage of meat" in the Russian occupation troops creates global

problems for the Russian General Staff.