Original subtitles

@Learnetrade we just triggered a monthly sell signal with that one take

which i think is interesting i mentioned yesterday

here's the monthly chart

oh we did not okay we have to get below a little bit lower

this green line is the bottom of the month last month

five minute chart bear channel head and shoulders top bear flag and we're trying to trigger

the monthly sell by falling below last one slow which is monday's low here's the monthly chart

we had a sell signal bar in july excuse me in august we i'm sorry july

we traded in august then we had a second sell signal

in september ended yesterday and we're very close to triggering

a tail on the bottom makes it a little less reliable

a small pullback will trend means that the selloff probably will go more sideways than down

i think we're going to get down to the moving average because of how overbought we are but

we may take a year or two before we get there we may get much more overbought before we get there

however to me this looks like a possible setup that could get us there

possible trend from the open um bear possible trend for the open bull um right now

for a bear bar but not not particularly big also we did not gap below yesterday's low

so the bears so far are not as strong as they might have been

so bears are shorting here for a swing knowing the probability is not high but

the risk is not big either the bulls are buying betting that this is a failed breakout below

yesterday's low and that we will not go straight down below the low of september

as you know i'm bearish on the daily chart

over the next month or so because the monthly chart is so overbought and we're at the top of

the channel on the weekly chart and we're turning down and we're turning down in a low four

we tried to top our here instead we got a bull breakout and two more pushes up

the bottom of the nearest weekly channel is here around 1952 or so

and that is also where the moving average is here's the daily chart the same for the trend line

oh it was in long or short i think we're always in short but if we rehearse up sharply

we could form the low of the day

here are two lines close together and they are this gap on the daily chart

the minimum that the bulls need for a reversal bar is a close above the midpoint

for a bull a reversal bar that need a build body monthly chart i'd say 90 chance we're going to

trigger the sell you know it looks like we're trying to trigger it in the next few bars

clearly always in short

but a possible sell vacuum test of support and the low of the day

we triggered the monthly sell we went below the low of last month

and it's a second entry sell so it makes it a higher probability short

so a possible exhaustion bar

bulls want exhaustion and the low of the day we have this double top here yesterday

so if i use that we're not quite there if i use this high then we're close to the target

low probability by but okay swing possible mode of the day

the final the close of this bar is important

if it closes on this high tick higher probability that this is the low of the day

if it has a two or three take tail higher probability that we will fall further

i think we're going down to the 1900 area i don't know the path that will take to get there

i mentioned that we could rally back up to this high in the 60 minute chart although it does

not look like it right now we keep breaking out below lows pullbacks only go halfway up

and we go down to a new low so this is a bear channel 60 minute chart and we just keep working

lower all of these reversal attempts are failing uh increases the chances that we'll get a big

gap and then a measured move down which takes us to around the 1900 area

not a good signal bar for the bulls so probably going at least a little lower

possible low of the day but low probability

in a situation like this where the context is good for the bulls and we close the gap on the

daily chart we triggered the monthly sell and we might be reversing up creating failed breakouts

you know that context is good for the bulls but if you have a signal bar that looks like

three i usually do not take the buy i wait for either a strong reversal up and then by

you know like bar nine yesterday or bar 60 61 yesterday or i wait for sideways move and then

in some kind of a double bottom here we had a micro double bottom here we had a double bottom

for the bears if they're shorting here everyone knows the stop is up here so they're risking a lot

you could use a tighter stock like 6.7 points you're just a money stock somewhere above the

midpoint of the big bear bar far from the moving average everyone sees that is a sign

of excess r2 a sign of excess but five bars without a bull body makes this a low probability

by

16 minute chart another breakout we've closed this gap on the daily chart this is the 60 minute chart

we have a trend line just below so we'll probably go at least a little bit lower even if we bounce

here so trend from the open bear 5 bar bear micro channel on the open probably sellers above

but fbearly climactic open far from the moving average

and we fell below obvious targets so we may bounce here going into seven o'clock

not high enough probability for a scalp but you can take it for a swing for a possible low of

the day bar does not look very big but in fact it is a big bar right so if you buy this you have to

trade small everyone knows the math on this you know low probability but relatively low reward

we have the uncertainty of a seven o'clock report right first

pull back and a trend from the open bear usually sellers above

but we're far from the moving average and that usually limits the downside so we'll probably

start to go sideways or up either here or soon this is i think an interesting situation for the

bulls everyone understands the trunk of the open uh bear but sell vacuum down to support

um so we may reverse at seven o'clock and go below the low of five however i suspect more buyers

there than sellers so this is a difficult trade for especially people starting out right um so

theoretically the way to trade it if you had the ability to do it is buy small at the five high

add on at the five low and then maybe risk three or four points below the five low

alternatively buy small stop out below five if it reverses up again by the bears it's always in

short but their stop is above two and um so they're risking you know eight points or so

and they also know the probability is we'll get closer to the moving average

so the bears are not worried about shorting down here because the chance of the market

falling far from far below where we are here without first pulling back is small

so they'll take their chances and wait to sell higher buyers or sellers below i think probably

buyers below but a very strong bear trend and still always in short so certainly okay too short

best case for the bulls would be a second reversal bar here for a micro double bottom

i still don't think that the upside is all that good but it is a realistic second entry buy if we

get it remember i'm bearish on the daily chart and i think we're going down to 1900 but we can have

sharp rallies along the way you know we've had several right very strong rather yesterday here

and here that's very common and bear trends to have extremely strong valleys just like

in bull trends it's very common to have extremely strong bear days the market's always trying to

generate confusion the purpose of the market is to find a price where most traders will trade

and it doesn't know where the price is exactly and it usually has to go too far up or too far down

to hone in on the range you know so the market's always trying to go to a trading range

can the bears tighten their stop to above seven or above six um i would not but if seven closes

on its high tick it's probably worth uh getting out of shorts or at least taking partial profits

and then looking to sell closer to the moving average

if seven closes on its high tick and looks like five probably an okay swing by

we still have a trend line just a little bit below so i think we will get there

on maybe within the next few bars i might do not have it drawn in here

is that trend line on the weekly chart here

uh

uh

let's see where that line is okay we're just about we just went through it

no not not according to this this is a 240 minute chart

here's the weekly chart

daily chart we're just about there very climactic open

so probably a trading range before

too long it's forcing traders to sell very far below the moving average

this is the measured move for that head and shoulders top bear flat so left shoulder

complex head right shoulder measure move down here maybe it's using this low as the

measured move projection

um this is so overdone that i think the probability is we'll

bounce here or very soon so i'll probably buy eight if it looks like a decent signal bar

even though i'm buying a very strong bear

this is just so climactic and we're at

we've hit a whole bunch of support levels targets 60 minute chart

i think we're right around that mine still room to it weekly chart we fell through the line

let me turn this into a 240 minute chart

do i have it anchored correctly looks like it

so i do have it anchored correctly so it is um

sometimes the lines on the 60 minute chart are different from those on the

daily and weekly charts and sometimes the lines on the five minute chart are different from the

60 minute and 15 15 minute charts it's because the five minute chart for example

within the 60 minute chart there are 12 5 minute bars

and when you look at the 60 minute chart you're just using the lowest of the 12 bars

in that lowest of the 12 5 minute bars and if you're looking at the five minute chart um

you know you may be looking at a different low and it can be higher or lower than the

60 minute one or it could be to the right or the left of it

suppose it's a doji bar what about buying above it it makes it a lower probability buy right

realistically today's probably not going to be a bull trend day we've fallen 15 points

right

but we may get a bounce that is high enough for at least a scalp scalp at this point

not one point i would not be trading for one point so if you're buying you're looking

for two to four points and for the bears um they have a gap here five below eight high

i know the gap's filled by a ticker saw but it's a potential small negative gap

we may have to get down to that 60 minute trend line below

here's that trendline in the 60 minute chart

so if you're buying about eight i would buy small but i would also hold for at least two points

to the four points it's a possible low of the day but um with this kind of an open

i think we're probably not going to have a bull trend we could channel up for the rest of the day

right so we could channel up for 10 points and get back above the previously previous support levels

but we've fallen i think too far for a a bull trend day

can you short here put a stop above six or stop above three

it's always in short i think the tightest stop that anyone should use

is a couple ticks above three which would be about the moving average

that's the buy everyone knows the probability is not all that good but the math probably works out

the key is management what about shorting below eight betting a lot of bulls will exit

um at this point i'm only willing to short a rally you know maybe around the six high

the seven high i take that versions chart that i showed before okay here's the lower low and price

higher low and ticks right so you have fewer ti fewer stocks going down so that's a bullish sign

so we're getting new lows in price but we're doing it with fewer and fewer stocks so that's one sign

that the selling is drying up so the market may have to go higher to find traders willing to sell

buyers were sellers below nine i would never take that short no matter what nine looks like

right we we've hit all of our targets below and we've done it with sell climaxes

we're trying to get a second reversal up from the bottom of a

channel most bear breakouts of bear channels fail so we have a bear channel a trend channel

line we have a bear breakout bounce a bear breakout bounced so you know usually like

70 of bear breakouts of bear channels fail and the market bounces so we have a bear breakout attempt

a second bear breakout attempt so odds are will bounce at least a little bit

when we get to that 60 minute trend line below um i think we will but we may get there tomorrow

or the next day hesitation six ticks up so it looks like some bulls are scalping for one point

i think if you're taking this long it's probably worth trying to go for more

for the bears double top six and ten so low too short below ten but um

i personally would not take that short this is a possible of the day but i would take probably

at least half off at two points for the bears couple top six but the sell climax down to many

key support levels so the odds are at least two legs sideways to up so probably buyers below 11

but not much enthusiasm right not a strong signal bar 8 not a strong enter bar 9 10 okay bar but not

strong follow through 11. so it looks like we're probably going to go sideways here

are we always in long or short well yeah you know we're still always in short but i think

we're going to get a second leg sideways to up and get closer to the moving average and we may end

up going sideways here for three or four hours for the bears double top always in short but

you know i think fbearly climactic selling down to support so i think that um probably buyers below

do they buy the 12 low or they try to buy more in the midpoint of the range i don't know it depends

on what size they're willing to trade if they can trade very small they can buy here otherwise it's

probably better to be buying somewhere down here eight high 10 log or wait for a stop entry by

60 minute bar just closed and this seven point rally put a tail on the bottom of the bar

all right you can see we're at the bottom of a trend channel line

not perfect but the bears are the bulls are hoping this is the bottom of the channel

um i'm still bearish right so even though i think we'll probably get a second leg up here

um you know i think bar 2 may end up being a measuring gap on the 60 minute chart

here's the 60 minute chart we've fallen below prior lows repeatedly and reversed up but the

breakouts have been very strong and i mentioned that we have a wedge bull flag we may get a bear

breakout and then a measured move down which is what i think is going to happen and that

will take us down to the august low around 1900 i think that's probably what's going to

happen testing the 10 low all right the bottom of the bull breakout since the trading range

is likely you'd expect it to fall below 10 but if we reverse on 14 we might get a second leg up

i think we're probably entering a trading range

but i am bearish on the daily chart and i would not be surprised if we

just trend down all day today and form a spike in channel bear trend so bear breakout and then

first pull back so start of a channel and then just channel down all day i think more likely

we're going to enter a trading range and then the market will decide between a trend resumption

down later in the day second leg down and a major trend reversal and trend reversal up

buyers are sellers below eight

i think probably fires below below two they bought enough for a scalp below five they

bought enough for a scalp um if we fall below eight which i think we will not

without first pulling back if we fall below eight i suspect buyers there as well

60 minute chart i'm just looking to see if i am missing anything some buyers here mine low

bearers taking profits betting on a trading range so they're buying back near the bottom

of the range some bulls looking to buy below obvious support 10 low 9 low 9 to the entry bar

those bulls a double bottom when you look at it you say well i'm not sure and that's exactly

right that's trading range type of price action leaving you uncertain traders want to buy low but

the market is forcing traders to buy in the middle of the range they want to sell high

this is probably a little bit low for selling even though we're always in short

so if you buy above 14 or above 15 and if you do how do you manage

um trading range confusing right it's forcing traders to buy fbearly high up in the developing

range right now the odds are against the market from going up very far might get up

to the six high and the moving average swing bulls probably have to wait for a strong bull breakout

you know which could be one bar like yesterday part of 60 it could be two bars like yesterday

eight nine sometimes it takes you know four or five bars for the bears 15 is a pullback from the

14 breakout of this bear flag here's a bear flag here or you can call it a double top bear flag

but we have climactic selling down to obvious support

so the chance of the market falling

much at this point without more sideways is not high so low probability short below 15.

so if it's a low probability short then it's a high probability by right but the high

probability comes with uh increased risk you know where is your stock right if you buy the 15 low

you know does your stop have to be below a measured move down it might have to be right

for the bulls they have smaller risk if they buy above 15 saw below 15 or 14

but they also have lower reward and lower probability

i think it's true to be buying for a swing

if we break strongly to the upside then

then i would consider swinging lungs but right now um i would only uh right now i'm in scalping mode

you know we have a lot of dojis a lot of reversals in here you know down and up and

down and up and down and up right so trading range price action you can see the tail

telling us that a lot of the bulls are scalping i'm scalping

if it breaks strongly to the upside um you know i'll switch to swinging um i think i probably will

not look to swing longs today unless we get a very violent upside reversal which we might if this

is to become a stronger trend we probably would not reach the moving average

on the first reversal up like this so it makes me think that um it's not going to be a stronger

trend it's possible that we're forming the low of the day and that we get a measured move up

for the bears another double top 12 test of the moving average 20 gap bar shorts you can say

well it's only 17 bars into the day how can it be a 20 gap hour short there's nothing magical

about 20 you know sometimes 15 sometimes 30 or 40 right you can also say well why not include

these three bars and that makes it exactly 20. it doesn't matter to me if there's a strong trend

which there was bar two right and you come back to the moving average

there are usually sellers there you'll have bull scalpers taking profits and you will have bears

shorting betting that the first reversal up will fail to get very far above the moving average

the bulls bought the nine low we fell below it reversed up

bears will sell the 12 high betting that on the upside breakout will fail so

trading range you know buying above 14 buying above 12 failures selling below on

5 selling below 10 selling below nine failures

right so breakouts are failing and reversing trading range price action

so can you short below 17 low 2 moving average

i think it's not that easy right

i've taken several trades today but this is one that um here's my problem with this

right yeah clearly we're trying to just look at the screen right but you know

this is very close to the moving average after an extremely strong bear breakout

usually in a very strong bear trend the market doesn't get

back to the moving average this quickly so it makes me think that this is not an extra

extremely strong fbear trend and that we're probably um at the top of a trading range

extremely strong bear trend took 26 bars and still missed the moving average here by two points

you know here we're two ticks away from the moving average and just 17 bars

here are 40 bars to before we get to the moving average

here we turn down um two points or six ticks below

so something's not right here for the bears so buyers are sellers below 17.

since i would not sell i suspect there are buyers below

the bodies 15 16 17 shrinking upside momentum getting less as the market's going up

still always in short but something's not right for the bears so i think sideways possibly up

about about 20 gap hours short shorting the moving average top six level top three i think

um the odds right now are that um we'll probably go more sideways

so you know this is probably a trading range but if we get a strong enough breakout here

this could be the low of the day um it's not going to be a bull trend day right we fell

17 points on the open but we could channel up all day and get you know back near yesterday's low

it's possible not likely at the moment but we've had several big reversals in this channel down

you know yesterday i'm big up big down

big

you know down big up big gap down up big you know up and down and up and down

down and maybe up potential final flag 15 minute chart

so i bought the gaps right so what do i do now well i would consider buying again if um

if we get a strong enough breakout and i would consider selling but right now

something's wrong with the bears after this much selling

we should not be coming back to the moving average this quickly and with four consecutive bull bars

gap 18 close 17 high possible measuring gap i think it'll be interesting if the 19 low holds at

or above the 17 high that would be a surprising sign of strength on the part of the bulls

bears want double top three

about four consecutive bull bars um

i think that lowers the probability of this being a profitable short we're trying the

bulls are trying to get this to become always in long you know maybe they need one or two more

bull bars if they do those will buy pullbacks stop below 14 or 15 looking for a second leg up every

tick matters right um so far 19 low holding above 17 high so potential measuring gap i think if 19

closes near its high the market's probably always in long and any selloff will probably be bought

this is not how bear trends typically look so it's probably not a bear trend if it's

not a bear trend it's probably a trading range it's possible that we end up rallying

all the way back to the open of the day and form another large trading range today for a bull trend

day you know let's say getting all the way back to the 60 minute moving average well above the open

it's possible especially since we've had so many big reversals over the past couple of weeks

but right now i suspect that um the day will end up more as a trading range day this is similar to

the bears yesterday through here through 28 right this is the bull version of it you know it's it's

up enough so that bulls feel confident buying um at the market buying closes buying for any reason

putting a stop below uh 14 15 or 18 and looking to add on lower

suppose 19 is a bear reversal bar low 212. um since this is not behaving

well for the bears i probably would wait for a second entry short if you're buying up here

i think you need a swing stop and trade small enough so that you can add on you

know somewhere in the middle of the little leg you know 18 low area i think rose and long right

but i also think that we might pull back below the 12 high the breakout point

but i think probably buyers there if we get there

can bear scalp betting that we will not get far above the moving average

without testing down they probably can right but i think it's better to be looking to buy

a pullback or you know buying at the market and buying a pullback

but you have to trade small if you're doing that we're just doing this i'm scalping

i'm buying taking profits buying taking profits and um i will look to buy a pullback

still always in loan right if you're buying here buying below 20

i think you still need a swing stop and i would only do it trading very small again the bear is

short here and scale in higher i'm betting that we'll come down to the breakout point the 12 high

um i think they probably can but when a market becomes always in long i think it's better to

focus on buying rather than scalping shorts i still think a trading range day is most likely

so even if we rally 10 points we've almost grown 10 points already we have gone 10 points

um i still think it'll end up as a big trading range today so for the bulls the target by we

saw the gap on 18 19 low is at or above the 17 high so that could lead to a measured move up

so the bulls will try to maintain that gap as a sign of strength they'll try to prevent the

market from falling below the 17 high however because i think a trading range is likely

i suspect that we'll close the gap and maybe even fall below the 12 high the breakout point

so if you're long you know you need a wide stop you have to be patient 60 minute bar closes in 15

minutes every time we break below a low we're reversing up broke low here reversed up broke

below here trying to reverse up same with here right so no surprise that we're reversing up again

you can see it's trying to hold the gap is trying to avoid falling below the 17 high

i think the trading range day is most likely at this point the reversal up is so big that

there's probably not going to be much left if we do sell off

but trading range day typically falls below support obvious support 17 high 12 low

so i suspect you'll fall a little bit more so if you're buying here for any

reason you know below 20 the 21 bear close above 22 i would do it trading very small

right now we're working on the appearance of the 60 minute bar closes in 13 minutes bears want a

big tail on top of the bar they prefer a bear body the bulls would like the bar to close on its high

uncertainty buildings right we're trying to get the double bottom

with 19 but i think a trading range is more likely than a trend so i think we probably

will fall below the 17 high and maybe the 12 high as well

trading ranges you're always going to be thinking disappointment right and what would

be disappointing if the bulls allow that gap to close the 18 gap if they allow the market to fall

below the 12 high since i think the market is in a trading range i expect that the bulls will be

disappointed just like the bears were disappointed with seven and fourteen bar twenty three

the six bar closes with bar 24 so we may get a brief quick move on bar 24.

remember the bar

in a higher time frame often has a big move bar two

um there's a big move at the end of the bar here's the one minute chart

you see right the in the bar two we had a very big bear bar so a very very big one minute move

just before the five minute bar closed and we're right before the 60 minute bar closing

so the final five minute bar might have a sharp move up or down

to me it looks like we're probably just going to go sideways a little bit here

putting a big tail on top of the 60 minute bar weakening it as a buy signal bar

bar 12 is the end of the first hour

bar 13 is the beginning of the second hour so the open of the 60 minute bar is the opener bar 13.

and bulls want a bull bar bears want a gear bar so you can see we're testing that open

in the final minutes of the 60 minute bar i don't know if my microphone was on we closed

the gap we fell below the 17 high we fell below the 12 high which i thought we would do as well

so now we're in the buy zone 60 minute bar opened with bar 13 so the open of bar 13 is

the open of the 60 minute bar and it looks like that's what the fight is right now

you know whether or not the 60 minute chart has a bull body or a bear body

doesn't matter whether the 60 minute bar has a small bull bar or a small bear body um i don't

think it matters i think more importantly is that it's a doji bar whether or not it has a small bull

body or a small bear body bears had that breakout on the first hour so they want to get a bear body

on the second hour as follow through here's this enough to flip the market to always in short

i think probably not we had the 18 breakout now the bears want to fall below the 18

low the breakout bar bulls will try to get a double bottom with the 18 low and then

a second leg up we're in thebuyzone here so i'm not looking to sell here

the middle of the most recent bull breakout bears will take profits here

bears one i measured moved down they might get it they want to do low of the day right

but i think we're in a buying area here's the bottom of the bull breakout the bulls can argue

14 or 15 are also a potential bottom 60 minute chart we have a breakout below a prior low and

then a pullback so it's a breakout pullback short below this bar by the big goji bar

prior bar big tail i think low probability short more likely buyers may and sellers down there

might be entering a trading range big doji a doji's one bar trading range

so how many bars do the bears need to flip this too short um i think they need to get

below the bottom of 15 or 14 trading ranges full blacks are often very deep

here right we came all the way back down to the sixth low

and then we got a second leg up

so the strong bull breakout but test all the way down to the bottom of it i bought the 24 clues

and added on one point lower and just get off break even even though it did not go

above the 24 closed that makes me think we're going higher i'm back to flat i just did a scalp up

i still think always in long bear is trying to get a gap 22 low 26 high but

i also think that our trading range is likely and that we make them all the way down to the 15

low

so next i'll wait to see if we double bottom around the 15 low and looking

back there why am i not selling gap bar 20 because of the of six bars up five bull bars

makes me think trading range is more likely and if it's going to be a trading range i don't want

to be selling or in the bottom half i only want to look to buy in the bottom half and what about

buying above 26 two legs down 19 25. um i think it's a confusing picture we're in the middle

of a trading range and traders buying or selling probably need swing stops even if they're scalping

in general the worst location for entering

is in the middle of a trading range i think the bulls probably will test up to the 19

close area by the closed bar but i'm not confident that the bears have finished with this leg down

so bulls and bears i think need swing stops and probably better if they can scale

or if they can um look for second entry buys with uh or strong stop entries

i think 26 is not a strong buy stop entry uh it's also not a strong sell stop entry below

the bulls can be swinging betting that we'll get back up to the two high in the 60 minute moving

average not likely the bears can be swinging betting that will stay below the 20 high

i think this looks like a trading range since bar 3 and at this point i'm only looking for

scalps

everyone in our trading range wants to buy low and sell high trading images tend

to spend a lot of time in the middle giving very little opportunity to do what you want

you know the market's always forcing traders to do what they do not want to

do

right now what are the chances that we'll get back to the 19 closed

right now i'd say 60 what are the chances that we'll get down to the 14 close

probably 60 percent as well but i think we'll probably first try to go up to the 19 close

here's the sds which is the inverse of the e mini and spider two times the leverage but basically

uh it looks like an upside down e mini chart

well the bull's strong break out two legs down abuybut the rally is weak and that

increases the chances that we have to test out remember that's the opposite of the

e mini so if we're going to test down on the sds then we'll probably test up on the e mini

i'm looking to buy lower or maybe we'll get a double bottom with 25

setting up a stop entry buy and i'm also looking to sell higher maybe a double top with 23.

right here i think traders can buy or sell if they scale in and use a swing stop for the bulls below

14 or 15 for the bears above 20 or 23. it looks like we're trying to get a little bit more down

maybe down to the 15 low if we double bottom there it would be a buy scalp

big enough bear bar so probably we're going down to the 15 low at a minimum possible new

low of the day but anytime you're in a bear trend strong bear trend and you get a gap bar

you have to be thinking that whatever selloff follows will lead to a major trend reversal gap

bars are a sign of strength the bulls had to be strong to lift a bar all the way up entirely above

the moving average if the bulls are strong enough to do that usually they'll be strong enough to

reverse the market on a test of the pbear model so gap bars usually lead to the final leg of a trend

before a major trend reversal so this sell off will probably lead to a major trend reversal not

always sometimes the gap are um you know we can get a measure we could break strongly below the

low of the day and get a measured move down right

right now it's more likely that we'll try to form a double bottom with 14 or 15

gap close below 25 there's one a measuring gap

and bulls want an exhaustion gap so the bulls want the 28 bear breakout to fail

it's a strong enough bear bar to make me wait for at least a bar or two before looking to buy

and traders can sell betting on the measuring gap but they'll probably be wrong

right we've already closed the gap we've already gone above the 27 the 25 low that is a reminder

that the market's probably in a trading range rather than in a bear trend

if the market's going to have a breakout and then go back above support or resistance at this point

you know that's much more common within trading ranges than in trends for the

bulls higher low major trend reversal wedge both leg three pushes down 21 25 double bottom on

15 but a fbearly tight bear channel that means that the first reversal up probably

will result in sideways rather than a strong bull breakout

so it looks like we may go sideways in here and try to form a low too short

29 is a reminder that the trading range is more likely than a trend up or down

bear breakout followed by a bull bar much more common in a trading range

low major trend reversal wedge bear wedge bull flag

but tight enough channel so sideways is more likely than up so stop for the bulls below 14

or 15. i think if you want higher probability you have to wait this is not a strong buy

for the bears i'm 29 a pullback from the 28th bear breakout about the bottom of a

trading range low probability short

probability favors the bulls right we've sold off for 10 bars or so

and what is probably a trading range but is the probability high enough to justify a scalp buy

um i think if you're using a stock below 28 or 29 the answer is no so do you want to buy below 30

or are they're more likely to join a sub low 30 or are there more likely buyers below looks like

we're starting to form a small trading range here so i think probably more buyers below than sellers

also we're in the bottom half of the trading range

for the bears double top 26 29 or 30. but i think more likely more sideways here

right now i'm looking to buy but i'm hoping that we start to go sideways a little bit

i think it's okay to buy the 30 low right but i suspect that we'll get a stop entry by

you know your personal radar is telling you that um the probabilities are just not high

either for selling here or for buying here and that is a sign that the days

were probably in the trading range bear trend yes but probably in a trading range maybe until

11 o'clock or 11 30. then the bulls will try to get a major trend reversal

and up to the 60 minute moving average high of the day bears will try to get trend resumption down

i am bearish over the next month or two right however every bear trend has many big rallies

so i would not be surprised if um we rally for example friday unemployment report that could

lead to a big bear breakout a gap down measured move or it could lead to a big reversal up

next outside target 14 low maybe 15 low

if we double bottom here and get a decent bull bar probably an okay buy scalp despite potential

tight trading range can you buy above 31. um you know in general buying above a bear bar is a lower

probability thing to do spike and channel better breakout 24 three pushes 25 28 20 uh excuse me 32

and a um higher low major trend reversal but because we're in a trading range

you have to expect that everything will be disappointing that things

will not look as good as you want them to look looks like a limit order market here

i scalped again i bought the 30 low and then the 28 low

now i'm back to break even but i'm looking to buy again

suppose we got a bear ioi um i probably will wait you can short

sometimes low two shorts at the bottom of trading ranges lead to big bear trends

what to do here i'm currently flat i'm looking to buy

because we're at the bottom of the trading range and the rally to 19 was strong enough to make me

think we'll probably test the 19 close can you simply buy at the market put a stop below 14

and then take profits up here so you're risking two points to make uh four points the math is

probably okay i'm hoping that we get a stop entry by maybe a perfect double bottom with 14

with a bull reversal bar and for the bears um i'm not shorting down here um

the rally to 19 was strong enough to make me think that we'll try to get a second leg

up and try to get back up there gap bar 20 also makes me think that whatever selloff

we get here will result in a major trend reversal either a higher low or a lower low

suppose we break strongly below the low of the day and have follow through then clearly my premise is

wrong and i may start to sell closes i think that is less likely than the market trying to get some

kind of a bounce in this general area key price right the bottom of the bull leg either 15 or 14

the bulls will buy aggressively here trying to prevent the market from falling below the bottom

of their little leg 60 minute chart the last hour is a pullback from the first hours breakout

but it's a big doji bar so a low probability sell signal bar

the bulls will try to convert this hour into a doji

so they want to get back to the first to the open of the

power every 12 bars bar 24 is the close of the last r bar 25 is the open of this hour

so that is a target over the next of the three bars for the bulls so let's say we've got a

three or four typical body closing on its high is it high enough probability for a scalp i think

it's an okay swing looking for a test of the 19 close but because of all of this trading range

it's more likely we'll go sideways in here so what about scalping um

you know i'm not i'm not as confident i guess i feel like it's probably okay if it closes

on its high tick we still have room to the 14 low so the bulls probably should trade small

whenever you have a small signal bar like this a 50 50 chance if it triggers

it quickly reverses and goes back below the signal bar and then reverses up again

for the bulls higher low major trend reversal double body 14 but i am

concerned that we did not get closer to the 14 low makes me think this is a trap

we felt one tick below the 15 low which is good

right for trading range traders they like to see the market fall one take below obvious support

and then reverse off that's the entry certainly okay swing possibly a scalp but possibly a trap

we're in the buy zone the bottom of a trading range

so for me i would only be buying here i would not be selling for the bears i'll pull back from

the 33 breakout but bottom of a two hour trading range low probability short down here so i think

it's better either to be swinging along

which i think it's not all that good or to be flat and waiting which i think is

the best choice or swinging a short stop above one of these lower highs

betting that will successfully break out below the low of the day and then get a measured move down

or wait for clarity i think that's the best choice buyers are someone with low

probability losses a little property so i really think buyers there we get we have

some bull bodies and we're at the bottom of a trading range final minute of the 60 minute bar

will's trying to change theirs at the bar we're trying to get back above the open of the bar

the 25 open i don't know if they'll get there 60 minute chart a pbear of dojis three bars with tails

below for the bears it's still a breakout pullback short below the last hour's low

but with all of this buying each one of these channels represents buying the market went down

and up down and up down and up all right that makes shorting down here a low probability short

this quick pullback tells you that a lot of the goals were scalping rather than swinging so they

do not have a lot of conviction can you short below 36 or 34 betting traps bulls will get up

we're getting too many bull bodies at the bottom of a developing trading range

and that makes shorting with stops at the bottom a low probability bet

so in a situation like this i would wait to see if we get a stronger breakout and then short after i

see the strong bear break off rather than shorting with the stock bears want the breakout but

too many tails on the bottom of bars too many bull bars for me to take that short

i'm only looking to buy unless we get a very big bear breakout you know bar like um seven or two

if the bulls get a good little inside bar closing this high tick i think

reasonable buy double bottom 14 we came to a thinner tick of it which is better than 34

and then 3 pushes down 28 34 37 but i would need the good signal bar otherwise i'll wait

we may break level 14 if we do we may fall very fast so i'll watch for that

markets deciding between a trading range and a better trend i think trading range is more likely

but i'd like to see a decent bull signal bar for the boy not a good bar for the bulls not

a good bar for the bears breakout below 14 but not a very big bar not a very not a beard bar

we're probably always in short and we fell below the bottom of the bull breakout

sometimes breakout bar on the second or third bar

i think the downside is limited i think we're trying to form a bottom here

so i'm still looking to buy unless we get a strong bear breakout

um the bulls keep buying well we keep getting

reversals everything on the market possible or something

at some point either the bears give up and we start to work higher

or the bulls give up and we get a breakout and the measure moved down the odds still favored

the bulls because of all the trading range price action that we've had since bar three

and we're at the bottom of that area we finally got to that 60 minute trend line down here

now do you sell a 40 or do you wait to sell 41. i think it's higher probability if 40

becomes a huge bear bar then traders will sell it but if it does not get much bigger than this

a lot of traders will wait to see if we get a follow through bar before showing

good bar for the bears we'll buy the first reversal up so we'll probably at least

minimum stop above 40. so minimum target probably at least a measured move down from there

bulls want the failed breakout and the reversal up bears probably need one more

bar you know bull buying every breakout all day long

and they will buy this as well but

um to me it's a big enough bear bar to make me think the odds are we'll get a second leg down

so the reversal that i will not buy

i think the odds are it's a strong enough breakout so that we'll get at least a little bit more down

so now i'm stuck on the sidelines or

you know i could short i thought about shorting but i chose not to so now still flat

if 41 closes on its low probably an okay short looking for a measured move down

60 minute chart a breakdown pullback short iii but both doji's

low probability short all right does that look like a strong sell setup far from the

moving average a pbear of dojis to me that's a weak sell setup more likely limited downside

bad for the bears 40 is one of those need one more bar all types of bars

you know it's a bear breakout but the bears probably need confirmation they probably need one

more bar and whenever you have those need one more barb situations bulls buy the closes betting that

they uh the bears will not get their one more bar failed bear breakout but a fbearly tight channel

lowers the probability of buying above 41. for the bears 41 is too big a bull

bar for me to be shorting either above 41 or below 41. so that means right now i'm stuck

i'm stuck on the sidelines

swing bears minimum stop 40 high probably 36 high

this is not um the way strong bear breakouts behave

gap 41 high 39 low

but the channel down is not all that strong and we have that moving average gap bar here which

represents good buying pressure so right now lower low major trend reversal but a very tight channel

so low probability better to wait for either a strong bull breakout or second entry buy

for the bears they're shorting they'll solve the 41 closed they'll solve the 41.

they'll sell in the middle of the this bear leg stop above 37 or 36. they'll sell below 41 as well

right now i'm trapped out there's just enough buying pressure to make me

not want to sell at the low but not yet enough buying pressure for me to

buy i'm drawing the gap even though i think it's not going to lead to the measured move

but it might micro double bottom failed breakout let's say 43 closes on its high tick at the 42

high probably okay swing by looking for a test up to the top of this range there's one

a low too short here two pushes up 41 43 and then a bear bar for a breakout pullback short

we're trending down we've been trending down since bar 20 and since bar one

but the trend is not all that strong it's covering a lot of points

but it looks like a bear trend in what will ultimately become a trading range

not a good looking signal for the bulls for the bears they're still short minimum stop above

40 probably above 35 36 the bears have a breakout on 40 but terrible follow through for the next

four bars at some point the bears get uh impatient and they buy back their shorts if they don't get

followed through at some point right and some bears it's one or two bars other bears four or

five bars but at some point if this does not break strongly to the downside will start to reverse up

this is not um doing what the bears want so they will decide that their premise of a bear breakout

and measure move down is wrong and they'll buy back their shorts and wait to sell again higher

bulls will see the same thing and bet that the bears will get out and they will look to

buy but i'd like to see a decent bull signal bar before by bears getting their follow through here

still not ideal right i don't want to be selling here so i'm trapped out waiting either to sell

higher or to buy if we get a decent reversal if i buy i probably initially will buy only for a scalp

to me this is just not doing what i want for me to be shorting at the bottom

every bear bar is getting a reversal so this is probably ultimately going to be a

bear channel full flag and will probably end up rallying i do not think it will be

a bull trend a i think the best the bulls can get is a bull leg and a trading range

you know first target would be prior lows the breakout points

and then these highs and then possibly the 20 high so i'd like to see 45 close on this high

of the buy otherwise it's still on the short i have the measurement of drawings

in the 20. the market might simply be using one of the highs in this range

micro 140 44 46 weak follow through from the bear breakout 40.

but to buy um on a stop um i think the bulls need a decent bull bar those obviously are buying below

bars and scaling and lower and scalping but no stop entry by yet i suppose we got a huge bear

trend bar at this point well that would be a sign that the bulls have given up

but for me we're just too many reversals after every

bear bar so i'm missing this i'm not i don't want to be selling it below

possible leg one leg two measured move i'm using the one high the market might be using the 74 high

weekly chart below that initial trend line at the moving average

minimum target i think is this august slope 1900 but i think ultimately we'll come down here

and ultimately you know within you know i don't know one year five years we'll come down here

this is rising five years from now it might be up there eighteen hundred

so it's the channel 2 type micro channel too many bars to buy above 47

right now it's a 12 bar bear micro channel no pullbacks and 12 bars

usually the first reversal does not go very far despite a wedge 40 44.

so not high enough probability for a swing by above 47 you can do it for excuse me not high

enough probability for a scalp you could do it for a swing i would wait to see a strong

bull break out or for the market to go sideways for a few bars first and for the bears it keeps

channeling down but it's not getting very far here we are seven bars after the 40 closed and

we're only three ticks below that close reversal bar close above the midpoint about a bear body

lower probability tight channel 12 bar bear micro channel but still possible swing by

probably higher probability to wait to see a bull break out and then buy

what about buying and using maybe a five point stop six point stop

and scaling in lower that could be okay but um in a channel like this a fbearly

tight channel small pullback channel this can go a long long way before it um reverses

first target the breakout point the 8 low if we do turn up my concern is when channels are this tight

reversals usually do not go far and the market usually ends up going more sideways rather than up

look at it from the bears perspective you know do you want to be shorting down here

is it strong enough to be shorting at the bottom

and for me it's not i am willing to short higher maybe if we get a double top 41

but here i would either be buying or waiting to buy or waiting to sell higher

the bears failed wedge bottom for the bulls wedge bottom but very tight channel so

probably the best of those we get is sideways let me check a measured move based on this initial

comes in again around the leg one leg two measured move so we might have to go a little bit further

very often the first break out of a bear micro channel

is a trap but then the market goes down for one two or three more bars and creates a

more reliable buy setup so if we do come down to those targets and reverse again that would be a

higher probability buy buyers or sellers here i'm not going to be buying and um or waiting

even though we're in a beards with no sign of a bottom

because i will convert into a trading range we have a couple of targets just a little bit below

sorting on a stop below 48 um i'm not willing to do that you know obviously we're in a bear trend

but we have a lot of two sided trading on the way down and this probably will end up

being a bull flag bear channel full flag and then some kind of a bounce to a trading range

remember for this gap 39 low 41 high we had several choices for the measured move

we don't know which of those choices the market will use the closest target is based

on the 36 high the market might be using the 25 high or even the 20 high very tight

channel makes it difficult to buy but with all the bull bars and the limited progress it makes

it difficult to sell as well unless you're willing to sell bull closes and above bars

next measure move projection this gap i think is important next one would be using the um

27 high and we're already there and then the final one would be using the um 20 high

it's not using this measured move next leg one leg two would be using this which is

much further down from where we are

the scale and bulls are giving up and they're deciding that

it's not worth holding onto the lungs

i've been flat for a while

waiting to see if we would get a reasonable buy setup so i chose not to sell 41 close 47

high sell the closes here but a risk of exhaustive sell climax so right now i'm flat and i'm waiting

i still think that this is going to end up turning into a trading range

but we do not have a convincing buy setup yet

let me look at other measured move projections

bear trends are always forming wedge bottoms girltrend's always bulltrend is always

for me which tops here's a wedge bottom here um here and then here and then here

and then here and then here and then here right most wedge bottoms fail in trends

but when the trend finally ends it usually ends with the wedge bottom

that's why it's constantly forming them everyone is trying to front run everyone

knows the probability of buying a bear is low so traders trying to buy early they try to front

run before the pattern sets up to reduce their risk but they're also reducing their probability

so is uh this bear breakout 41 50 51 more likely a measuring gap or a an exhaustion gap

i don't think it'll end up as a measuring gap but the channel down is so tight that the probability

for the bulls is not yet very high and the best the bulls probably can hope to get is a

trading range confusing picture here right that also increases the chances of a trading range

strong enough bear breakout so at least a little bit more down but an exhaustive move

close to a measured move um so i think the downside from here is probably limited

bears stop above the most recent breakout the 49 high i think we're probably too much the

vision i mentioned at the time that i thought it was significant that we did not get back above

the 39 low and that there was the potential for a measuring gap 52 a pullback from this

breakout measure move target below but musical shares everyone sees that this is extreme

behavior

right now i will probably um bounce at that measured move projection

let me see if i have it drawn in

accurately

that's reasonably accurate

i don't know that we'll get there but it looks like that's what the market is trying to do

we may bounce first and then get there after a bounce

not a good looking sell setup so it might be buyers below

i tried to buy it but i was too slow i was looking at crude oil

had i been filled i would have only scalped it for one point

suppose we got a bull reversal bar here what about buying for a box um

i think it's difficult to do you know obviously everyone knows that this is overdone

but um when you have a tight channel like this um

you got to be really careful if you're buying

because the first reversal usually does not go very far

however if we go sideways and then fall to the measured move projection and then reverse up

we might get a decent final flag by good for a couple points maybe more i think that

there will be buyers here can you place a limit order a tick or something above

and risk four ticks or something like that and try to make a two three or four points on the bounce

the math is probably okay let me check that leg one leg two measurement again

i'm assuming leg one ended at eight but i may have ended at um five or even two

so if we get a bull reversal bar here 56 we have our second leg down from the sprayer breakout

but where is the stop for the bulls i'd say you could put it below 54 right but um

you know it might be better putting it a few ticks below the measured move projection buying above 54

uh their body i don't like to do that

especially in a bear trend right now i'm taking a chance and i have a limit order to buy

one tick above the measuring move projection for selling um i'll wait for probably i probably won't

sell unless we get a couple legs off all right for buying as an alternative traders can buy

here above 54 but stock placement is tricky so if they're buying i would probably put a stop

below the measured move projection and possibly add on right above the measurement projection

the bears are trying to get a double top bear flag and a measured move down

it takes us below the measured move projection

i don't know that the measured move projection will lead to a reversal but whenever you

have big trends like this um i would say you know maybe fifty percent of the time it does

does this qualify for a qualifier has a major trend reversal all in that gap bar no i think it

went down too many bars below that low major trend reversal is simply a test of the low

this is not a test of the eight low right this is a strong enough bear breakout

so moving uh major trend reversal traders need a new break of the bear trend line and then a new

major trend reversal so yes the market's trying to reverse here

but i would not call it a major trend reversal we went too far below this low so the process starts

over so now we got another bear trend trying to get a bull breakout and then from there

traders have to look for the major trend reversal the bearish double top 52

close to the moving average but the selloff has been so

relentless that it is probably unsustainable

and therefore climactic and we're probably going to go sideways to up for a couple of legs

so buyers of sellers below 57 um probably fires below and more

sideways

buyers or sellers here i think we're probably entering a trading range it's a little bit high to

buy but probably more buyers than sellers i think there will be sellers down at the measured move

target excuse me i think there will be buyers at the measured move target if we get there

for the bears swings we're back into the middle of the prior bear leg so you always have bears

selling here you always have bears selling bull closes near the moving average in a bear trend

you have a double top 52 of 57 so you have the low two short bears

stop for the bears above 49 i suspect that they're probably more buyers than sellers here

but we're still always in short

and we still have i think an obvious target below so right now i think you know 60 chance

we'll get there today 16 minute bar closes in 10 minutes a week looking signal bar here this iii

with a pbear of dojis but the market still fell for a lot of points about 10 points

below it 60 minute chart that's not a lot five minute chart it is a lot

bulls want some kind of a wedge several choices for the first push one

one one one one and then second and third but a very tight channel usually does not lead to

a sharp reversal usually the best the bears can't the best the bulls can get

is some kind of a trading range we're very far below the moving average just like we were here

and that usually limits the downside

bulls would low to get back above the eight low the breakout point the bottom of the upper range

bears trying to get a low too short maybe a bear ioi at the moving average

wedge bear flag three pushes up 52 56 58 and then a test down to that

measured move if we get down there i probably will buy

for the bears the winch bear flag at the moving average failed break out top of the channel

but a fbearly tight channel just like the bulls were limited because the bear channel was tight

now the bears are limited because the bull channel is tight also i think we got two

legs up you can say well al there are two legs 57 and then 61 or 60 yes but when the two legs

are within a very tight channel like this they usually are part of a larger first leg

so i think this is probably the first leg up so a pullback and then a second leg up

pull back might be below um below the day down at that measured move can you buy up here are

we always in lown i would not you know i scalp i bought and i scalped out selling flat i want

to buy low i don't want to buy high until i'm convinced that we have a bull trend and we do

not yet have a bull trend the bulls probably need a major trend reversal like a test down and then a

reversal up or they could simply get a very strong full breakout which is less likely bears i think

realize trading bear channels usually evolve into trading ranges so a short for the bears here is

probably more of a scalp right you're selling high in what is probably a trading range what about

20 gap bar short we've been 20 bars without touching the moving average and therefore

bears will short this and they will but as i said this is extreme behavior so therefore climax and

climaxes usually are followed by a couple clear legs up this is not enough bars for two legs

after this many bars down so i think that if we do sell off there will be um a second leg up so

what to do here um it's not easy right um i think it's okay to buy low especially if we get down to

the measured move for the bears i think it's harder the second leg up is likely that lowers

the probability of shorting below 60. so they can short for a swing hoping that we get down to the

target that would give them more than four points but i don't i do not think it's a good enough

setup for a scalp for sure and for the bulls um to me this is where you scalp out of lungs and

we do not have a convincing bottom for a swing so for me the bulls are flat waiting to buy lower and

the bears are short stop above 49 and uh they can swing a short low 60 but sideways is more likely

than down so i do not think it's a good scalp short can you buy above 60 failed wedge fbear flag

i would not if we break strongly above 60 you know i would consider buying

right now we have a wedge 52 57 we have a low two 57 60. probably we'll get a couple small

legs sideways to down and then a larger second leg up

i would feel more confident about the bulls if we get down to that measured move target

or if we drop for five or ten bars in a week sell off and form a major trend reversal

we had a couple measuring gap days the past few weeks

this was a perfect measured move if i remember from that low to this high

maybe from the low of the day to that high maybe this low yeah so that low to that high

we had other ones as well here there's another gap this high that pullback

so the measured move would be the middle of that gap there's the low that's the approximate middle

of the gap that low this high and went right to a measured move we had a bear one also a week or two

ago yep uh here negative gap the pullback overlaps the breakout point let's check the measured move

so you take the midpoint of the gap

the pullback overlap the breakout so i take the midpoint of that and project down

so that's why i'm thinking about a possible measured move down here for a reversal up

what do i need to buy here like i said um i'm not willing to buy here if we break

strongly to the upside um i'll buy if we form a major trend reversal i might buy

especially if we reverse up off the measured move projection we might get a sharp sell up

here we're running out of time on the day and the scale and bulls will get desperate

if they're not able to get back to their original entry prices most who bought up here

got out through here but you had others buying in here and they're hoping to get back up there

and if we don't get up there soon we'll go down we'll sell off those scale involves will give up

as you can tell from what i'm saying i think we're going to have to test down

because the chance of the stronghold breakout without the major trend reversal

is small it can happen but it's um you know it's more often that you'll get a major trend reversal

when you have a trend this strong bears have a potential measuring gap

we're in a tight trading range so it's really not that meaningful

i sold and scalped and i'm flat again

my concern was that we might form a higher low here and get a second leg

sideways to up both the double bottom major trend reversal i still think we're going to

go down to that measured move so i would need a pretty good looking bull bar to take this by

you have the bull scalpers here buying one tick above the target is it a strong enough step

for a second leg down it looks like it but we're also at i think an obvious

magnet so we may bounce here 60 minute chart or below

on obvious support for that top maybe that's the neckline down here

so the measured move would be a little bit lower i still think we're going down here

you can see the bulls just scalps for one point

the bulls with the limit order one took above the measured move

the reason why well obviously you know i mean it's obvious that's what happened

right they bought we got the bounce and they sold and then we went down

again do i think we have a lot more down left no i think we'll try to get the major trend reversal

that crude oil trade i thought it was clever

selling up here getting out down here and i missed all of this

we had a small pullback there test of the moving average and now a potential lower low major trend

reversal 65 66 too strongly down i think to buy the first reversal up but we're at the target

that i've been talking about for well over an hour so i think the bears probably will stop selling

here at least for a while let me look at the daily chart finally we got well below the moving average

also got below the trend line we're below the 100 moving average here's the 50 100 150 200.

weekly chart we're trying to break below the moving average and the trend line

60 minute chart strong breakout

difficult to buy when it looks like this we make it all the way down to that leg one leg two target

if that's leg one there's leg two looks like that's what the market is trying to

do

very big volume today thirty thousand contracts there twenty seven thousand contracts there

you know forty uh three thousand contracts here

so to me this looks like the bull is finally giving up on the daily chart

heavy heavy buying we tried to bottom failed broke out so we should fall for a measured move based

upon the height of that full flag right so at a minimum we should get down here nineteen hundred

does this qualify for a lower low major trend reversal um it might but with the four consecutive

bars six bars without a bull body one bull body and nine bars that makes it less reliable

so let's say it closes on its high tick you know is the probability high enough for a scalp

probably not is the probability high enough for a swing looking for a test of the 60 high

moving average maybe or if it does not close on its high kick i would not bother with it

for the bears we're far below the moving average and even though it's selva closed through here

once you see a bar like 69 a lot of the bears will scale in and try to get out break even

so there probably will be buyers at the 68 close and we'll probably bounce here

so we have bear selling closes selling closes selling closes oops all right so they sold the

68 closed they sell more one point higher two points higher and they're trying to get

out break even at the 68 closed so if it comes down to the 68 closed in the next bar or two

will probably reverse back up again not a strong my signal bar especially after this

many bear bars but i do think you'll have scale endeavors buying back shorts around the 68 closed

so if we go up for a few ticks and then try to sell off again

there probably will be buyers around the 68 close we might get profit taking into the close

you know we got all of the targets except maybe this leg one like two target

the scale and bears have bought who sold 68 and scaled in higher are probably covering their

shorts here this is bouncing more than they want you know maybe with the bars as big as they are

instead of selling one and two points higher they're selling two four and six points higher

six points tickle and all that so a lot of the bulls 69 went for one point

i still think uh rally uh possibly into the close wedge bottom um very climactic selling

um what i sell down here um i would not buyers or sellers below 70.

i think buyers the bears who sold 68 and scaled in higher probably feel like

there's not much downside left so they're trying to buy back their shorts um with as

small a loss as possible instead of trying to get out 68 they may try to get out break even

so maybe they sold 68 and two points higher trying to sell four points higher

and then break even is right around here halfway up

we're in the area where bears will probably buy back shorts

i don't know that we'll get down to the 68 close because a lot of the bears will decide you know

wedge bottom you know possibly more up so a lot of the bears instead of trying to get out

break even on their first entry and with profits on their second and third entries

we'll just try to get out um maybe there's a few ticks profit on the entire position

and that might be what's taking place here so what are the bulls do about the 70 low scalper swing

they certainly can scalp right but it might be okay to try to swing or test up to the 60 high

you know i definitely would scalp out part right but you might be okay trying to swing part as well

for the bears a little too short 70 72 at the moving average but a wedge bottom

and a pretty good reversal um i would not take the short

are we always in long you know i don't know i think the bulls need to do more

but um i suspect that um i will not look to take any more shorts today

i think this was important information here

we had sell the closed bears they scaled in and they were so eager to get out that they exited

before the market got down to their original entry price the 68 close so that means the bears are

not confident about the market going down any further

i just went flat a lot of the bulls who bought the 70 low have four points

here we went up 17 ticks above that low i may try to buy one more time

but some of this hesitation right here is four point bulls and what the 70 low

taking partial profits at four points they needed the market to go 17 ticks above their entry price

to get their four points the bears look too short at the moving average but we have a wedge bottom

should get two legs up we have two but it's not enough bars for a wedge that has this many bars

so um i would not take the short that does not mean i'll buy the 73 low you know just get out

right but it does mean that i will not sell it in a bear trend like this i sometimes buy um the low

one here i usually do not buy the low two um because i don't like to buy low twos and bear

trends maybe that means the bulls failed twice i think we'll probably go more up and it might

be okay to buy this but here we have a big tail at the moving average we have a lower high um and

we're running out of time on the day

so um and it looks like a lot of the bulls get out at four points

so the bulls will get out at four points they're probably not looking to buy again um three minutes

later four minutes later i'll probably wait and see what the market does over the next part or

two or three might go outside up here and create a gap for a measured move up into the close that

takes us back above the eight low not likely but we might get there the measured move instead might

be from the um 72 low still takes us back to the breakout point the 8 low the market tried to form

a base here lots of bull bars instead we got a bear breakout and a measured move down trending

trading range today upper range lower range market often tries to get back to the upper range

it's also a spike in channel bear trend a small pullback bear trend

a wedge on the bottom you know so there are many things many ways to look at it

we're probably always in long at this point i said i would not take any more shorts today five of the

past six bars have full bodies plus we have a wedge bottom and the wedge is big it's 60 bars

so it's unlikely that seven or eight bars will be enough to um end the wedge we'll probably get two

legs off this rally is probably the first of two legs so maybe tomorrow we'll come down here and

form a double bottom or a higher low for a second leg up 60 minute high excuse me see high is um

bar 60 of the prior hours high so that's the 60 minute high over here bull's trying to get

above a 60 minute high that's the target to get back up into that upper trading range

i'm flying it looks like that's what the market is trying to do bulls creating gaps 70 close above 69

72 75 76 all gaps signs of buying pressure only one bear bar in the past um seven bars eight bars

so probably not worth shorting the bulls can still be swinging along but um i think it's risky

right to 60 high so just like there was profit taking by the bears down here

there might be some proper taking by the bulls up here so probably better to do

nothing until tomorrow they bought the 70 low 73 low will they buy the 76 slope i would not

you're into the time of day when computers just totally dominate things happen quickly

you know we're getting thirty thousand forty thousand contracts per bar

this is not individual traders trading this is heavy heavy institutional trading a lot

of this is profit taking into the close after a huge bear trend day some of it so you get value

buyers who think that it's overdone and that will get a bounce remember the daily chart

i think is our trading range since june we have a bear breakout so what will tomorrow look like

probably a bull bar right and um trading ranges every time you get a breakout bar the next bar

usually makes you doubt that the breakout will go very far

parabolic wedge here so probably two legs sideways to down low probability by

we may end up just going sideways into the close very interesting day

i've been writing for a while about the higher time frame charts monthly chart um september a

sell signal bar july sell signal bar we triggered a short here and then a second entry short here

minimum target is the bottom of this august bar which is around 1900. i suspect that we'll then

go sideways and maybe fall for a measure move down based upon the height of that developing trading

range and get us down to the monthly moving average at some point over the next several months

the monthly chart is so strongly bullish that i think the downside is limited however

if it corrects down to the moving average um it would create a bull flag

might be 100 200 points down on the daily chart that would be a bear trend but on

the monthly chart it would just be a bull flag coming into today

we opened within

yesterday's range but yesterday was the last day of september and we had a sell signal bar

in september i think the target was the green line there was a gap on the daily chart a pbear

of pink lines and then we had a measured move down based upon the head and shoulders pool bear flag

five minute shark left left shoulder head right shoulder so measure move down here we bounced

for a couple of legs and then sold off into a wedge bottom probably will get two legs up

and we've probably had the first leg up when you look at the size of the wedge the number

of bars in it it's unlikely that this is both the first and second legs it's more likely that

you can argue first leg second leg but when the wedge has this many bars the

correction has more bars than that first part of the day possible high of the day

more likely sideways right but i thought we would soon fall below the um monthly

last month's low

because it was a decent looking sell signalr and the monthly chart of silver bull

bar two huge bear bar closing on its low um probably always in short probably will

fall for some kind of a measured move three bear body confirming bar two

sellers above five um expanding triangle bottom bottom of a trend channel line

reversal up from last month's low reversal up from the gap on the daily chart

good looking bull bar possible low of the day but i do not think it's enough to reverse two

so probably sellers above scaling and higher stop above two or above one

six a pullback from the breakout below the gap below the monthly low

but a doji following a pretty good bull bar i suspect that will

bounce and maybe bottom around that measured move target below so if you're shorting here

you know you'd be ready to exit if it solves which it did at eight eight final flag six

at the measured move target put the sell off two is so strong that uh the first reversal up here

probably will not get very far so if you're buying here you're buying for a scalp 12 double top six

we might break below eight and fall for a measured move i suspect that we'll go sideways since we're

at a lot of support levels you know the gap on the daily chart the measured move the monthly low and

also we're far from the moving average so i think we'll have to get closer to the moving average

um 15 a double bottom might break above the 12 neckline for measure move up i'm

not convinced that we'll even get to the moving average you know two is so strong but we might

and then we went up for six bars five bull bars gaps uh 18 closing above 17 19 closing about 18.

we're probably always in long and probably buyers below the bears see 20 as a gap bar

first bar low above the moving average and they think we'll test the um the bear low they low the

bulls see the rally as strong enough so that we'll probably get a higher low and go more sideways

so swing sell only bear breakout 24 25 three consecutive bear bars

looks like we're probably going at least a little lower i suspect that we're going to go sideways

here maybe a double bottom pullback but probably sellers above 25. 27th breakout pullback sell we

might find support we fell below 18. might find support the sixth entry bar low the seven um

excuse me the the 16 entry bar low the third of the 15 signal bar low or the 14

uh bottom of the uh bull breakout trading range so we may dip below and then reverse up

29 wedge three pushes down 21 25 but a fbearly tight bear channel i think a low probability buy

i would rather wait to see if it goes sideways then create more buying pressure or wait for a

strong goal breakout for the bears they're still betting that the bear trend will continue down i

think more likely we're going to go more sideways here we have a lot of bull bars since bar five

32 wedge 25 28 32 but and also bottom developing trading range

but um i want to wait for a strong bull breakout or a better looking bottom the bottoms just don't

look right we have a lot of bull bars and that decreases the chances of the bitter breakout

34 a better looking bottom three pushes down 25 28 a lot of reversal attempts 26 29 32 34

might get a higher low major trend reversal but i do think this is an okay buy for a swing might be

okay for a scalp bad entry bar 35 okay follow through 36 terrible follow through 37. bears

now are viewing this as a double top 32 36 at the moving average not a great looking short maybe a

short below eight maybe a short below on 14. at the bottom of a trading range low probability

too short on a stop i usually wait for the breakout and if the breakout looks good then short

40 a decent looking bear breakout might end up as a measuring gap okay swing short stop above 40.

also hoping for a major trend reversal from that 20 moving average gap bar 41 lower low major

trend reversal but channel down from 20 is pretty tight i think it's better to wait for an upside

breakout and then look to buy the brc41 has a pullback from the 40 breakout and they're looking

for a second leg down 41 is big enough i think to make the thing make the situation confusing but i

think rose in short and the odds slightly favored the bears 42 or breakout pullback short i i

swing only right you're at the bottom of a bear channel and the bottom of a trading range and

we may be failing on the bear breakout but we may also fall for a measured move down

44 bear breakout possible iii final flag 42

45 not a strong enough signal bar for the bulls so it looks like we're channeling down on a fbearly

tight channel um the market's always trying to give you an opportunity to sell at the low

and it's difficult to sell above bars because the market's constantly trying to reverse

you know something about 34 29 26 right any of these bars it's always trying to reverse

so it's hard to uh to sell but the bottom is just not good enough another bottom temp to 46

i think it's a bad bottom another one 47 wedge 40 44 47 wedge 28 40 right but

this is becoming a small pullback uh bear trend an endless bear pullback um

we have a potential gap 30 41 high 39 low although right now it does not look like

it'd be a measuring gap it might be you have to keep that in mind

how to trade this you're either buying blow bars and scaling in lower or you are selling above bars

and using swing stops or you can be selling with stops using swing stops bear breakout 49.50

possible measuring gap i think the measuring gap is going to be

the bar 40. so this is probably going to be an exhaustion gap

51 a strong enough bear breakout 49 50 51 so probably a second leg down probably sells about 51

but we may soon bottom we're close to that measured move target based upon that 40 gap

52 53 a pullback from that bear breakout

i think probably not much more down before we enter a trading range so if you're selling

here you're going to be pretty quick to get out i think bulls will start to buy

55 2 bar reversal possible low of the day but a fbearly tight channel the bulls probably will need

a major trend reversal before they can bounce very far um so if we do go up here there probably will

be sell those around the moving average to the top of the channel the top of the bear leg the 49 high

if we break strongly to the upside i'll change my mind but right now the market probably

needs either a big wedge bottom or a major trend reversal and we do not have either yet

57 double top 52 but not quite to the moving average and we got to the moving average on 18

and again on 36 so probably buyers below 57 for a move up to the moving average

60 low 257 wedge 52 56. um at the trendline fail breakout about the trend line okay swing short

fbearly tight channel might get a second leg up

64. um bear i o i at the below the moving average on a swing short we're in a tight trading range

not high enough probability to scalp whatever selloff we get if we get a selloff probably

would lead to a major trend reversal maybe around the measured move target

bear breakout 64 65 probably more down 66 i mean

probably a second leg down but you got to be really careful we're right at that measured

move target that i've been talking about for over an hour and uh at least 50 percent

of the time you get a bounce when you get such an obvious measured move as uh 40 was

68 another bear break off we're near the leg one leg two move we fall below the measured move

it's theoretically sell to close but i think we might get a major trend reversal here or

wedge bottom so you know i first thing would not sell that close i would be looking to buy

69 excuse me wedge bottom i think it's probably an okay buy four consecutive bear bars might go

sideways some if you want you can wait for a bull breakout um or for a second entry buy

70 i thought was very interesting very important

now we have consecutive bull bars and we went above the 54 low breakout point so this last

selloff probably is an exhaustion gap rather than a measuring gap i think probably buyers below

70. we have a big wedge bottom we hit my target target i've been talking about it for over an hour

and we might get some profit taking into the close so i think buyers below 70.

and you can see what happened you had sell the closed bears sold 68 they sold

two points higher four points higher and they were so afraid of not being able to get out

of the profit that they bought on the 71 close which is good for the bulls

bull reversal 72 probably two legs up so probably after 72 so probably buyers below but top of the

channel and at the moving average end of the day it's okay to wait for tomorrow four points up here

i think it's near the 60 high i think if the bulls are still long maybe they should get out

wedge parabolic wedge 70 73 but a lot of bull bars low probability short

and sideways into the close really interesting day stop entries you know below one not really

that good below three if you're willing to swing below six if you're willing to swing below 14 um

maybe scalp definitely swing and then above five i would not above eight uh i would only

scalp looking for a trading range above 15 um double bottom we should go up a little bit more

that's okay below 21 excuse me below 20 the low 2 12 moving average gap bar i did not i

was i thought we were going to get a higher low major trend reversal we tried repeatedly

over here 25 29 um 34 but nothing quite looked strong enough and we started to form an endless

uh pullback and endless uh bear pull back we got a breakout on 40 and then the measured move down

uh stop entry buys you know maybe on 55 right uh 69 and then if you have the stomach for buying

above 71 you can do that i thought better to buy below 70 or maybe even the 71 closed

for the bears stopwatch entries were not all that easy you know 20 low probability

23 higher probability second entry short and then all below these bars you're shorting at

the bottom of the trading range low probability okay swing 42 i thought okay swing same with 48 i

48 i did not short below it if i were shorting below it i probably would have shorted below 47

on the wedge bottom 40 44 looking for a measured move down

and then 52 i switched to buy mode i thought it was an exhaustion gap

up here i did short but i scalped uh i should have swung

a major trend reversal was likely so there was room down there for four points and then here 70

i definitely would not have shorted i shorted for scalp up here not with a stop um for limit orders

the first one that made sense was about five but i would i didn't do it because of the possibility of

an opening reversal at the pullback to support the gap the pink lines on the daily chart

and a pretty good looking bull bar and then beyond that um gosh it's tough with limit orders in here

um because if you're buying 12 you may be double top six might break below eight fall

for a measured move so buying is not all that good selling about five is not all that good

selling above eight i thought we would go up enough for a scalp so it's probably better to buy

and same with above 15. and then in here um bulls were buying blow bars for scalps you know below

25 below 28 below 34 right although i would not buy below 34 because of the failed wedge bottom

and then they were selling about bars um to me if you're selling about bars you have to be doing it

for a swing you're shorting in the bottom half of a trading reach and um even with a limit order

you know i don't like to do that for scalps and the same with down here if you're taking the sell

side you know you're selling above bars especially bull closes near the moving average 48 41 did not

get that close to the moving average um 56 maybe 59 and then here you know after the wedge bottom

i think you don't want to sell until um you know you move up at least for a couple of legs to a

resistance area like the 60 high potential bubble top buy the closes sell the closes

sell the closes one aggressive two makes sense three four makes sense um and then

through here i thought buy the closes on 18 19 but when you see 20. i think you got to say

time to get out sell the closes maybe 24 25.

40 yes 44 yes 49 50 yes 51 i was starting to get concerned about an exhaustion move 56 if you're

aggressive you could buy that for the scalp to the moving average then on the way down here 65 66

or even 67 sell the closes i would not sell 66.67 you know frankly i was but i was buying

right i thought we were going to bounce at that measured move and 68 i definitely would not sell

um you can it's a sell the closed bar but it required fast decisions and good management

so you sell the 68 close you add on two points higher you add on two points above that and then

once you see 69 and 70 you're saying oh i'm in trouble this is not going down it's going out

wedge bottom so you have to make quick decisions and it's really not that easy to do

so i'd rather be looking to buy in that situation then buy the close 72 maybe 73 74 75 i

i stopped by 76 five consecutive bull bars but double top 60 moving average gap bar 76

i'm only looking to sell at this point

um really interesting day lot of trading trades there probably were 50 trades in here

let me take a look at questions

did you underestimate the past on the power of two for a long time you're making a trading range

case but in hindsight i did um i thought two was you know the dominant bar of the day

but as often happens when you get situations like that the market does whatever it can to

trap you out and at least make you start looking for something that's higher probability but on

lower reward and through here we had a lot of buying pressure right it uh i thought

the probability favored a more trading range maybe until 10 30 11 o'clock 11 30 and then

trend resumption down or trend reversal up we have a lot of bull bars here right

but 2 was strong enough to be the dominant bar of the day

and the bears succeeded but through here i think the correct

way to look at this is as a trading range instead of a bear trend however once you see

that the trading range goes out the window it's possible it's a failed breakout

right but to me at this point i'm starting to think measuring gap

and measured move down but until then i think the probability favored um

more trading range

we look at the nasdaq

to be honest i didn't even look at the nasdaq today looks more bearish than the e mini

to me sell sell sell i would not buy a possible exhaustive sell climax i would have bought that

for a scalp i would have bought this uh for both a scalp and hold for a swing had i held

for a swing i would have gotten out on below 20 or 23. if i was flat i would have shorted 22 um

i would not have bought that i would have not bought that and then here to me is sell mode

now i would have either sold that close or sold this low or that close

here that's a lot of bearishness for me to be buying i would not buy that i might

have sold that or below 64. here i i would have bought below 70 just like the e mini

i took can you go over your e mini tracer i took a whole bunch of e mini trades today i don't even

remember i sold on two um i don't remember if i bought on eight for scalp i think i bought on

15 for scalp i probably bought one more time in here and then through here i kept waiting for a

buy and they're just we're not good enough i may have bought 34 i don't remember i sold on 40.

and i think i took one scalp here for sure i bought

i forgot what i did i know i had a limit order to buy here i ended up getting filled over here

i canselled the order and i put it back in and whatever i buy i think i bought i bought

in here um i bought the 57 low i sold where did i sell i sold somewhere up in here for a scalp

i sold for a scalp i bought the 70 low i bought and then i sold somewhere around 76.77

those are the trades that i remember i probably took several others as well but those are the ones

that i remember anyway fascinating i think today is a game changer on the daily chart

we attempted to get a bottom a bull flag here and we have a big bear breakout yes a tail that

weakens it we may go sideways for a few days but i think we're falling for a measured move down

takes us to around 1900 from there maybe we'll bounce

and form a right shoulder for a head big head and shoulder stop

then break below that and get down to the monthly moving average six months from now

all right hope everybody has a good night wedge bottom probably second leg

up tomorrow so maybe we'll sell off test today's low and then get a second leg up