Original subtitles

About the connection between the counteroffensive, the Wagner rebellion, and the desperation

of Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Many European leaders, despite their own statements, sometimes slip that "Russia cannot be defeated.

Over three decades Russia has successfully created a propaganda myth that its military

might and reserve capabilities are identical to those of the Soviet Union in WWII.

But the recent convulsive redeployment of personnel in police vans against mechanized

units, pulling units by planes thousands of kilometers near Moscow, mobilization of conscripts,

undermining bridges, destroying roads showed that Russia has a problem with reserves.

It turned out to be a problem to stop the advance of 20,000 Wagner troops, but there

are opinions that there were no more than 5,000 of them.

As expected, the Western community perceived the events in Russia as a demonstration of

weakness by Putin personally:

Italian Foreign Minister: "The attempted mutiny by the Wagnerians means that the 'myth of

Putin's Russia's unity is over.

French President Macron: "This situation reinforces the importance of Western support for Ukraine.

All this should make us even more attentive and fully justify our support for Ukraine.

European Union chief diplomat Borrell: " The Wagner crisis shows that Ukraine is "breaking

Russia's power.

Why am I bringing up the Prigozhin situation again and quoting it?

I do so because of the context of the Ukrainian offensive.

The fact is that, despite various "insiders," no one is removing Shoigu and Gerasimov, perhaps

not yet.

On the contrary, the Russian media are trying to whitewash their reputations as much as

possible.

An example of one such substitution of notions about Shoigu: "he went to hear reports," rather

than running with his tail between his legs.

The Ukrainian armed forces managed to stretch the enemy's reserves along the front from

the Dnipro to Siversk with relatively limited forces.

If we take the map, we see a number of wedges into the enemy's defensive orders.

All of these potential challenges that the AFU has created for the enemy in a few weeks

need a "response," which the enemy can only accomplish by using reserves and trying to

counterattack.

But these reserves are either moved to disadvantageous areas of defense, or they oversaturate the

defense line and increase losses.

At the same time, the Ukrainian command has not yet brought in the main reserves and can

play the lined front as they wish.

And the enemy has recently begun unpacking operational and strategic reserves in the

south.

Why does the enemy act in a way that makes no sense?

All because of the politicization of the front, which has been intensified by the Wagner clowning.

The enemy's defense system is built competently, but this sovietism in the head of Russia's

political leadership - "not one step back" - makes things difficult for the military.

Therefore, where it is better to withdraw forces quickly, the enemy tries to counter-attack

under the Ukrainian artillery, which surpasses them in quality and counter-battery struggle.

So what does this have to do with the Wagner mutiny?

Imagine Gerasimov and Shoigu doing a real regrouping in certain non-critical areas overall.

Howling of their opponents against the background of the situation with wagner will become critical

for their image and no one will listen to "objective reasons".

So the only option available to them is to unpack the reserves and counterattack to level

the front, hoping for the best.

In essence, the "Wagner rebellion," complete with the weak legitimacy of the military command,

leads to the politicization of the front, which in turn leads to the "cumulative effect

of disaster.