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Prigozhin and the "Wagner" group will attack Ukraine through Belarus... Are you kidding me?

Sky News writes about it with a reference to a certain British Lord General,

whose analytics and level of awareness we should trust at our word, because he is a Lord General!

And here again this topic of threats from the territory of Belarus.

Previously, I have repeatedly parsed such reports,

which integrated the scare narrative of a re-invasion of Ukraine through Belarus

with an attempt to capture Kyiv, and almost always these scare stories had

no basis in fact. Now the narrative used for intimidation has changed somewhat.

To begin with, to get a sense of how realistic this all is,

I want to remind you of two episodes of this full-scale war.

When Russian troops invaded Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, a resource of

40,000 personnel was used. And these were not cons or recruits, they were Russia's most elite troops.

The 40,000 elite fighters, fully equipped with the most modern equipment by the

standards of the Russian army, even with experience of combat operations in Syria,

were exhausted and depleted in a matter of weeks during the rush to Kyiv. And a month later,

with colossal losses, they fled back to Belarus.

The second episode - Bakhmut. The Wagner group spent 10 months trying to capture a small town,

and as a result declared their capture, capturing 98% of the city. At the same time they never

managed to capture the "entrance gate" to the town on the highway 0504, through which the control of

Ukraine in the town is now returned. At that time, the Wagner PMC had their peak resource.

According to various estimates, at different

periods of the attack on Bakhmut, the Wagner PMCs had from 20 to 30

thousand or more personnel in their ranks. Most of this mass was buried near Bakhmut.

So, 2 episodes of this war to pay attention to in order to answer the question...

Even if Prigozhin does agree to an attack on Kyiv, as some publications write, what are his chances?

The chances are not of taking Kyiv,

but of being annihilated at the entrance to the Chernihiv region.

Actually there is nothing surprising that Sky News published such pickled rubbish.

But this rubbish is traditionally rebroadcast by others.

Yes, Prigozhin's attack on Moscow looked fantastic, but he won't be able to repeat

it in Ukraine. Remember the burned columns of Russian equipment in February 2022 and

imagine what will happen to the columns of armored vehicles and Wagner pickups.

That was enough for the Russian performance, but not for Kyiv.

On the way to Moscow, the Wagnerians met virtually no resistance; when they entered the Chernihiv

region, they would not travel fifty kilometers. If someone in the Kremlin is thinking of getting

rid of a bunch of rebels, then yes, this is the very option - to send them to take Kyiv.

In general, given those lines of defense and the resources that are now deployed in the northern

bridgehead of Ukraine, the Wagner PMC, even in alliance with the Belarusian army, have no way to

capture Kyiv, and the invasion for them will end even faster than for their "elite predecessors".