Original subtitles

Not so long ago I explained that the bulk of Russian forces and resources in the South

are concentrated in such a parallelogram. Its purpose is to provide escape routes to Crimea.

But then Chonhar happened... Or rather a missile or drone strike on one of

the two main arteries leading to the peninsula.

As you remember, the main idea of the "parallelogram" was to ensure the most

comfortable escape of Russian forces from the mainland South of Ukraine, in the event of a

breakthrough of the defense lines by the Ukrainian army. Such a structure ensured the withdrawal of

the Russian troops to the Crimea through two main logistic nodes - Armiansk and Chonhar.

But, now, "something has happened" at Chonhar,

and this "something" is probably only a prelude to a much more serious action.

In fact, in the near future a group of Russian troops may be left without one of the escape

routes, and withdrawing the entire group of troops through Armiansk is logistical hell.

Look carefully at the structure of the parallelogram again.

You see the same thing I do, right? A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

And this means that a colossal grouping of Russian troops may be closed down in southern Ukraine,

an event unparalleled in modern warfare history.

It is now time for the Russian command to organize the flight of its entire horde from the South.

Because any delay could be fatal for them. I can advise you from me - just run away...

As for the strike. The Russian media showed the wreckage of the Storm Shadow missile, which,

according to them, struck the Chonhar bridge. There was also another strike

on the backup bridge over Lake Syvash, which is next to the Chonhar bridge.

Judging by the hole in the canvas, it was something impressive,

probably a proven HIMARS, but it doesn't matter what at all.

Three or four more arrivals like that and the equipment won't be able to pass.

A familiar story, don't you think?

The Kherson scenario comes into play. Gradual and methodical knocking out of logistics and

communications, creating such a tension that they would remove themselves, if possible.

And there are massive reports in the Russian media that the Ukrainians have broken through here,

advanced there. It is impossible to say yet which of them is true and which is

imaginary. But fear has many eyes, and fear is a bad adviser in tactical matters.

And to the north of Armiansk a new line of defense is urgently erected. One would think, why?

If the counterattack has already "completely failed"?

That means that they do not rule out a breakthrough by the AFU into the peninsula.

But I would like to pay attention to another point in this context,

and for this purpose I will mention the Israeli Air Force.

When the Israel Defense Forces destroy terrorist targets in multi-storey buildings, they initially

launch a blank bolt onto the roof of the building. This is how they warn of a strike.

This "knocking" gives the occupants an opportunity to evacuate within 10-15 minutes.

Then a missile or bomb is struck. Actually, what happened in Chonhar should be perceived as

a "knocking". After all, today the logistics are destroyed near you, and what will happen tomorrow?

Thus, while the connection of the peninsula with the mainland South of Ukraine is cutting

off, which creates a threat to the southern grouping of Russian troops,

the residents of temporarily occupied Crimea have figuratively the very 10-15 minutes to evacuate.

For after that, only swimming.