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As I noted earlier, the Russian occupiers
in southern Ukraine have an acute shortage
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of personnel to provide a full defense along
the entire front line, which is now convulsing.
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Therefore, they are reinforcing only certain
locations.
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If we look at what kind of resources, from
where and where they have been moving over
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the last 2 weeks, a very interesting "geometric
phenomenon" emerges, namely - I will conventionally
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call it a "parallelogram of Russian occupants".
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Basically, the concentration of forces and
means of the enemy takes place within the
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2nd and 3rd lines of defense of Zaporizhzhia
region.
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But at the same time, given the density of
defense lines and concentrated personnel,
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this entire mass is resting on the administrative
border of the temporarily occupied peninsula
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of Crimea.
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Even from the left bank of the Kherson region,
they are pulling in units to reinforce this
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particular parallelogram.
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From all of the above, the question arises,
but what will happen to the weakened areas
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that remain outside of this figure?
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After all, it would seem that that is where
the most impenetrable defense of the Russian
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troops will be.
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But there is a nuance.
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And who says that this geometry is precisely
for defense?
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Despite the concentration of forces and resources
there, this whole geometry is designed not
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so much for defense to the last drop of blood,
but rather, for the safest, unhurried, systematic,
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but escape.
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And the defense lines that are now being built
on the territory of Crimea are direct proof
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of that.
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There is no way the Russian contingent on
the peninsula will be able to hold those defense
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lines that are being built in Crimea.
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But on the other hand, this entire defense
architecture will make at least some sense
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only if they receive an inflow of up to 100,000
personnel.
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That is why it is obvious that the Russian
command has long realized that they will not
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be able to hold the South, but they will try
to imitate a desperate "heroic" defense for
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as long as possible, which is why they see
a parallelogram as the best way to stretch
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the process.
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I'd also like to make a note of the increase
in the number of enemy Ka-52 attack helicopters
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destroyed.
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In May the enemy had a record 553 artillery
pieces destroyed.
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In the first half of June the Ukrainian forces
have already destroyed 373 units.
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It would seem that what does artillery have
to do with attack helicopters?
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It has something to do with it.
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In a month and a half the Russians have lost
a huge number of artillery pieces, without
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which they are not only unable to attack,
but even to defend.
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Naturally, they urgently need compensation
for the losses, which can not be compensated
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through withdrawal from storage and lame logistics.
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And therefore helicopters come into play.
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A similar scheme worked on the right bank
of the Kherson region, when the Ukrainian
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defense forces began to destroy Russian artillery
non-stop, and logistics did not allow them
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to compensate for losses.
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Attack helicopters began to act as artillery,
launching attack missiles at Ukrainian positions
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using the method of a sharp climb with a nose
up.
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And so a similar tactic began to work in the
South.
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There is a critical shortage of artillery,
which means that attack helicopters, which
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more and more often have to come close to
the front line and get into the coverage of
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Ukrainian air defense and mobile groups with
MANPADs, are coming into play.
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The enemy's situation is consistently bad,
and these fools were going to war with NATO.
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And if anyone thinks that it is not bad, I
would like to remind you that the stage of
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"capturing Kiev in three days" has changed
to the stage of "AFU advances and something
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happens on Russian territory".
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