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About new opportunities in the liberation
of Crimea and Putin's "new wunderwaffle".
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Literally 2 months ago on the channel there was
a video in which I demonstrated how a firing zone
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can be implemented in Crimea, when the Ukrainian
defense forces come to its administrative borders.
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That is, even at that time, the presence on the
territory of the temporarily occupied peninsula
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of the Crimea of a large number of defense lines,
fortifications and other "placebo", absolutely
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will not create a sense of security under the
sounds of regular "claps" from drone strikes.
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Since 2022, I have consistently held the
view that the liberation of Crimea would
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follow the Serpent Island scenario,
adapted for a slightly larger area.
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A scenario of complete isolation of the Crimean
peninsula from the outside world and methodical,
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systematic annihilation of the occupants.
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The main task of the AFU to start the active phase
of this scenario is to reach the administrative
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border of the peninsula. After that, it will begin
to form a shock and fire capability to carry out
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the task of destroying all military facilities
and military infrastructure on the peninsula.
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But if, as of March 2023, I was considering the
4 zones of destruction that the AFU can provide,
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taking into account the existing and prospective
means of destruction that they can receive (or
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already receive), now we should make
adjustments and declare the 5th zone.
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I should note in advance that the kill zones
are specified taking into account the safety
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buffer for means of destruction up to
20 km and without taking into account
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the specifics of the shots, with
an averaged value of the range.
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That is, conventionally, up to 20%
in range to the specified values.
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In turn, an important point will be restoring full
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control over the Sea of Azov and causing
incomparable damage to the only logistic
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artery connecting mainland Russia and
the peninsula - the Crimean bridge.
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Preservation of the ferry service is
possible only for civilian purposes,
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but in case it is used to provide the
peninsula with forces and means of the
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Russian troops, such ferries must be
destroyed, either at sea or in ports,
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because they can and will be covered by
civilians during transportation of troops.
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Thus, the occupant contingent on the
peninsula will find itself in isolation
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and will suffer daily losses, which will
not be possible to restore. In other words,
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a daily minus, which will lead after
some time to a complete loss of the
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combat effectiveness of the units
of the Russian forces in Crimea.
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This is just one of the scenarios I see most
clearly. At the same time, on the table in the
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General Staff of the Army, I am sure, there are
several similar scenarios and some of them are
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much more unexpected than this template sketch
of a larger operation than was on Snake Island.
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Taking into account the transfer of long-range
missiles to Ukraine and the emergence of the
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5th zone of influence, we can safely
say that the Russian occupiers on the
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temporarily occupied peninsula of Crimea will
have absolutely no peace in any corner of it.
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Meanwhile, Russia plans to begin production of a
new configuration of the Yars-M intercontinental
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missile. The product is planned to be made much
more difficult to detect, improve accuracy, and
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generally expand capabilities. Moscow has already
tested a new version of the Yars in the past, but
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only now are they ready to begin mass production
of the missiles. Now a number of enterprises on
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Russian soil are modernizing their capabilities,
among other things. These enterprises are busy
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producing missiles, the control system
and other important parts of the missile.
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But there is nothing good in this
news for the Russian armed forces.
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The more resources a poor and degraded Russian
military-industrial complex will spend on any
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hangar, senseless, but insanely expensive and
resource-consuming wunderruffle, the better.
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This war has shown that they will only
be able to build another obsolete,
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"unparalleled" Soviet archaism, designed only
for the domestic consumer of Russian propaganda.
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