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The Kremlin has accepted the inevitability of defeats at

the front and is preparing to pass them off as victories.

According to various sources, several scenarios are being written for this purpose.

I will dwell on two, one more real, as it seems to them, the second for a critical situation.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov described a critical scenario in which

there could be a serious catastrophic problem caused by a technological accident in Russia.

This would require immediate attention from the government; they would have to mobilize resources,

including soldiers. That is, they will have to voice a "goodwill gesture" under the guise

of some cataclysm on Russian territory." Knowing how Vladimir Putin came to power,

it is not surprising that they themselves will provoke it.

One agrees with Reznikov that such a "goodwill" scenario might have occurred to Putin as a backup.

This is a "last resort" scenario if the Ukrainian counteroffensive gets

the situation completely out of Putin's control.

U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes shared her findings about Putin's

possible actions. Despite the Ukrainian accusations that the Kremlin is trying to

eliminate Putin through drone attacks on the Kremlin, Haines said that according to the

current assessment of the intelligence community, Putin's use of nuclear weapons is "very unlikely.

She also believes that Russia does not have the resources for a new offensive.

Putin is more likely to focus on strengthening control over already

occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine and preventing it from joining NATO.

Russian propaganda has already begun to prepare Russians for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The Putin administration instructed the media "not to underestimate expectations of the announced

Ukrainian counteroffensive with NATO support. On the contrary, they should emphasize that

Western countries are supplying Kyiv with arms and supporting Ukraine in every possible way.

If the Ukrainian counteroffensive is unsuccessful, the Russian army can be said to have skillfully

repelled a superior attack, and the price of that victory will increase dramatically. If

Ukraine achieves some successes with the help of its allies' weapons and liberates part of

its territories, Russian propagandists will say that the entire West has concentrated enormous

efforts on the front, but its successes are very modest compared to these efforts.

That is, the Kremlin hopes to sell military defeats to Russians as their own victories.

Of course, here I would like to say that Putin has already moved to the stage of accepting the

inevitable, but let us not engage in self-deception. For now, the Kremlin

is still far from acknowledging the need to withdraw from all the occupied territories.

Now the enemy is hoping to get by with small defeats on the front,

after which it will be possible to consolidate in the rest of the occupied territories and

wait for the United States, Europe and China to advocate a cease-fire and negotiations.

It is this scenario that is most dangerous for Ukraine strategically.

For it is a freezing of the war and nullification of hopes for accession

to NATO, as well as hopes for investment inflows and a peaceful life in general.

Ukraine's armed forces have already thwarted all

previous Kremlin scenarios - let's trust that they will thwart this one as well.