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British military analyst and retired British Air Vice Marshal Sean Bell gave

his assessment of the upcoming counterattack by the Ukrainian armed forces. In his opinion,

the Ukrainian offensive will be staggered and the preparations for it are almost complete.

He also voiced what we have been discussing for months, namely strikes on the enemy's logistics:

"Ukraine's first step will be a strike on Russia's logistics, with a high probability the main focus

of AFU strikes will be concentrated on the land corridor between Crimea and mainland Ukraine.

It is important to deprive enemy troops of a significant portion of logistical support,

so Russian supply routes and nodes like fuel depots will be destroyed first."

A few days ago, an oil depot in Sevastopol in temporarily occupied Crimea was hit by a

drone strike and burned badly. Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate said the explosions

and fire destroyed 10 tanks that could have contained up to 40,000 tons of fuel

for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The Russian side claims that only four tanks with spent

oil were destroyed and in general, they did not know what to do with it for a long time.

The Russian media insist that it was a Chinese commercial drone Mugin-5

that made it down.Assuming that it was indeed a Chinese Mugin-5,

such drones should be used by swarms, for the purpose of spam enemy air defense.

It seems that the Ukrainians launched a dozen drones simultaneously to attack the oil depot:

some of them the Russian air defense managed to shoot down, but several reached their targets.

There used to be a significant stockpile of Russian equipment in Crimea, but it has

recently been redeployed, and the bases are now empty. The Russians are seriously

fortifying the Zaporizhia nuclear complex, as if preparing to fight for it. "East of Zaporizhzhya,

the Russians have 1,120 kilometers of trenches: some of them can be seen from space,

you can see these 'dragon teeth' that have not been used since World War II...," Bell notes.

The analyst suggests that the most likely direction for the beginning of the AFU

offensive is the Donetsk region. Fierce fighting has already taken place there in the past,

and it will be difficult to regain this area in the short term. The defense of Crimea is

also sufficiently fortified, which makes its return to Ukraine a difficult task for the AFU.

He also believes that the main thrust of Ukrainian forces may be directed

at the land corridor between Russia and Crimea. Russia currently controls about 87% of Bakhmut,

but there is evidence that Russian forces are very nervous about a possible Ukrainian offensive.

Moreover, Russia has already lost more than 50% of the territory it captured.

"There has been no noticeable news from the battlefields in recent days.

But this is definitely the calm before the storm," the analyst concluded.

You may remember that my opinion regarding the start of the counteroffensive is quite

the opposite, and I consider the Donetsk direction the most difficult,

in consequence of the shorter logistical arm of the enemy's supply. No matter who turns

out to be right, the Ukrainians may surprise us with completely unexpected tactics, so we wait.