All language subtitles for Building Confidence in Trading

Our guys

What's going on it's been a couple days since I recorded my last video

So

Before I get into anything I kind of wanted to

Going a bit of a rant because I do I'm in a couple different trading groups

Right and

The more experienced traders in some of these groups are laying out

Where we believe certain markets are going to trade to

Longer term

Right so

Some of the newer users that come into these groups and it's usually a revolving door

I've been a part of a couple you know various trading groups through the years

But

A lot of the newer members they come in and

They often find themselves

Trading against

What some of the more experienced Traders are

Predicting in the markets

Right and I was there too right

I always wanted to hop into the lower time frames and figure that

This is where a certain reversal reversal is going to occur based on intraday price action right a lot of

Experience Traders are in the lower time frames trying to pinpoint

The highs and the lows in the market and they're losing sight of

What the overall narrative on the higher time frame is actually doing

Right because internet price action

Can be very volatile and it can get you caught in the wrong side of the move

Right so I kind of want to just talk a little bit about how you can how you build confidence and trading

And understanding

How time of day you know

The day of the month how all these factors play into understanding

What your narrative should be going into a certain day or a certain week or certain month

Right so a couple videos back I discussed how a specific

Channel forms right every candle forms

You know starts with an open

Then there's going to be a low a high and a close that's all you have that's how every Candlestick is formed

Now these right these candlesticks have been around since the 1800s

Japanese Traders used to

Track the price of the rice markets using these candlesticks they invented the candlestick

This concept has not gone anywhere

It's been around since

You know the 1800s right so with every candlestick

After the candle opens we're going to have some type of manipulation

One way or the other before

It possibly trades the opposite direction and then closes

All right so

Today's the first of the month

And

We're still calling the dollar higher

Right but

Overnight we had a huge sell-off

A couple users I'm not going to call anybody out but

You know I've seen this app I've seen this occur

You know it's not just these two groups either

It's really just how new Traders get trapped into thinking a mark is going to be bear

Or bullish

Right just having the inexperience to understand that the higher time frame

Is providing

The guidance on where the market should be going

Right and

When we lay out a bias

A lot of times internet price action or even price action that goes against our narrative

Will trick Traders into thinking that the market is now bearish

When really it's not so how does a monthly Candlestick form right a monthly candle

We'll typically open

And within the first week or two

Provide a manipulation

In the opposite direction of where it's going to close the month

Right so today we hope to open up on March 1st and have traded down

A significant amount

Overnight

And if we drop down into intraday chart we can look at that as well

But

If we're bullish on the dollar

This is telling me that

They're dropping price into a discount area before

It's allowed to run higher they will accumulate their long positions below the open

To then trade higher and that's where the WIC forms

As a traitor

You're really just trying to position yourself inside of a wick

Write my entire career is me trying to get better at positioning myself

Inside the wick before the candle forms

Or before the candle closes if you can position yourself inside of a wick right you are smart money

Who can position themselves inside of a wick

Before the market rallies or drops right smart money is positioning themselves inside

Of the wicks

Embarrass markets right it's more money is positioning inside the wick inside the wick so when the month open

Who's up

Bearish

That suggests that we are most likely

Going to be bullish or at some point this month

Will be bullish

Right now this is not it doesn't

Work

In a black and white way but more often not

If the price trades lower the probabilities of it

Reading back above the open are high if we are in the beginning half of the month

Okay

So

On the first day of the month why

Would you come into the marketplace and think that the market is now bearish

I saw a lot of tweets I saw a lot of messages

People are saying Dixie looks bearish Dixie looks bearish

Of course it should look bearish this is the best place to buy it if you want to get long right

Bearish day provides a new opportunity to go long in the marketplace

Right arguably if you're trying to go long on the market isn't this price better than this one

Or this price better than the one up here

Okay so if we want to position ourselves long in a market where if we're expecting bullish prices on the dollar

Wouldn't you want price to trade lower to then get long

Right so keep this in mind this is March 1st what did the first of February do

Let's just hop over the first of February

Right here

This was the first two days in February

Right what is it doing it's just trading lower to a discount to induce people into the market

They're inducing sellers into this Marketplace

And there's blue shaded area down here is the monthly fair value Gap

Okay so

When were trading if we have a bullish premise in mind

We want to see order flow against our bias

Because it lends areas for us then hunt setups

Right if the market trades higher already

I don't have a discount that I can buy

We need to return to some level of discount before it's allowed to go higher

Don't get caught up in

The Market's trading lower overnight I want to sell short

What is the higher time for telling us you cannot lose sight of what this is telling us right so we have

I have this bullish order blocked is Wick and then we have the 50% range

So right now

It's

You know this is the the March 2nd candle and

What yesterday's done are basically today what it's done is we've just retested this order block

Filled in this fair value Gap in here

And provided a nice Wick below

So what if this day trades higher

Well then we're going to have a swing

Pattern right look at the low on this candle right and then this

And we'll have a possibly a lower

I mean a higher low here

This candle doesn't have a wick right now which I find kind of inefficient but

Since we've already traded down here there really shouldn't be any more

Reason to go lower from here

I'm aiming for

Above here and this volume and balance

If I'm parenting some things that other ICT Traders are talking about

We're all leaning the same way

It's because we all see the same things at least the more experienced Traders see the same things

Okay

So

Just going back again and studying the Judas swing on the monthly open right this is

12:30 this is January 1st

At the Market's traded higher initially

And these are huge moves right these are inducing buyers

Into the marketplace

I have we measure this move right here

It's almost 2% now this is the dollar Index

And some other markets that might be more right crypto might that might be

5 10%

What is the still the same idea right the month will open induce people into the market on

On the wrong side before they take it in the opposite direction

Okay

Now this is December's open

All right so this is kind of our Target

I'm where we would like price to go to because

Ever since December's open price is traded lower

Okay so this could be just one giant accumulation phase before we test

December's open again

November

To go back to November

Trying to find the open

November 1st

Traded higher initially

Induced buyers into the marketplace and then took it the other direction so if we're bullish on a

Dollar we want to see

This trade lower initially

Right if you study your candles and you can do this on a one hour you can do this on a 4 Hour

It works on every single time frame

If

You're bearish typically candles will open trade above the open and then turn around

All right so

This is actually healthy for a bullish trend for the monthly to trade lower initially

To then go higher right and if we look at our

Are monthly Sharp

Last month closed bullish

Do we want to pick the top

After we've already rejected this level

No because we have all of this imbalance and if we measure the range from this high to

This law right we are deep discount still

There's a cell side imbalance in here

Right of equilibrium

You are likely to trade up there

Now this is all probabilities we're just playing a game probability that doesn't mean it has to go there

All right I'm leaning One Direction

And our higher time from narrative drives us to trade in One Direction

I want if I have a high time frame bias in mind

Rarely ever going against it

Okay I'm not so I'm in I'm more of an intraday Trader if when I'm planning my day out ahead

The time right

I'm not making my plan at night coming to the market in the morning and doing the opposite of what I planned

If I do then I'm not a good treat I'm not following my plan

All right so that's part of confidence you have to

Not only do you have to understand what you're looking for you have to follow

A strict process and stick to it

Okay I'm giving myself an opportunity during today

Or this week it doesn't really matter what time from your training right give yourself an opportunity

Create a bias a narrative

For you to trade

And trade in that direction

I have a good friend that I'm talking to

And I gave him my bias on the S&P I'm not going to call him out but he's you know he's new he's learning of course he's going to have questions

And of course

He's probably going to

Do things

Counter to

What should be done I mean it's normal I was doing the same thing people were telling me to go One Direction I was doing the opposite

Like I did that for a long time so

It's a learning lesson though

Right if I if I mention I'm short on the S&P

Right that doesn't mean you just use ICT Concepts and

You don't find

Reasons to buy it

Right and

Once I'm done with the dollar Index I'm going to hop over to my S&P trade and kind of walk you through How I build my

Narrative overnight and just stick to the same

Premise I'm not shifting my bias midday

Okay and this will save you a ton of headache

That's

This is our weekly open

On a weekly basis what should we typically do

As a weekly range profile right the higher the low of the week is either made Monday Tuesday or Wednesday

All right well this is

Hello from Wednesday that could possibly be the low of the week

Because we've traded lower straight from the open

And this could be an accumulation

To trade higher now we don't have to get above the weekly open

That's okay if you're swinging along we just need to draw on price

From here

Even up to yesterday's open would be a good enough move to trade long

You don't have to demand that this is going to get up here this week

Right our swing Target could possibly be there you know this we could get close to the weekly open then next week we'll push High

All right

So we have 50% of this

Rejection block

Right we tested that ran lower

What I'm looking at is all they've done is return it into a level of discount before we can possibly go higher

I have a swing Point here

This could possibly just return to the discount level to then go higher so what would our Target be

Fibonacci extension

Would be 106 152 so that what kind of bring us up into this bearish water block which is

You know if these three consecutive candles

Obviously you want to take some partials above here above here right and then run for a swing higher

That's I don't think there's really too much to dive into on the lower time frame I'm just going to hop over into S&P

I'll see

Don't have I got to go to ES

Right so

Just pretend like this candle has informed I'm going to go to replay actually

Remove this I'll go back on candle too

So this was

My

Daily analysis

Last night so right now it's March 1st it's 11:51 p.m.

I had a late gym session so I'm kind of up and I'm kind of wired so

On yesterday's clothes right this created a bearish order block because we closed below

The open here

We have Tuesdays open

And my drawing liquidity

Because this is traded lower right we have a swing point

Have a high

Get a high

That's we got a high a higher high and then a lower high so that's our swing that's so my drawing liquidity

Is last Friday's low

So I'm I was bearish on ES leading up to

New York session

Right so I have Tuesdays open plotted it's possibly trade higher up into here

It's Tuesday's open and then trailer

That's always dropping to a 1 hour

I'm going to jump to real time

Just so I save you

Go through this exit replay

So this was Tuesday's price action

This is the daily bearish order block this red shaded one and

I have

The Fibonacci drawn

From yesterday's Swing Swing point

Right from this high to this love

The overnight session provided

Retracement

Okay

So again this is March

First right the open is here

If I'm bearish on ES

Higher time frame

This is what I want to see I want to see a treat higher initially

So when I came to the market I saw that it was trading up into the premium level of yesterday

A swing

Right and it tapped this one hour fair value Gap

So that's all I needed to know this happened at 6:00 a.m. so at 7:00 a.m.

I entered a short

I might stop was I believe a little bit above

The 79% level

Because if it's going to reject here and this is a strong fair value Gap

It should not trade to the 50% level

All the fair value app

I actually was tighter let's see

Yeah

This was

I'm driving to a 5 minute cuz I actually did see this on a 5 minute

So that is the one hour fair value Gap right and this is the 5-minute Fair

Value Gap

That's the one I saw this reject

From both levels right that's a nested PD right we have a 5-minute Federal value Gap inside of a

1 hour fair value Gap

All right

So when this swing traded lower

I just sold short on a slight retracement higher

Okay and then I entered another position

Down here

So why did I answer it here well we have this 5 minute

I want to get this

So I'm going to change this color

So this was

This was a buy-side imbalance cell side inefficiency

As soon as we close below this low

That becomes a market structure break

So if we were bullish if this would have provided price to go higher this by side and balance

You should have not traded below an old low and close below the 50% level

That's already traded your multiple times now this fair value Gap becomes an inversion

Right so I entered short another contract here

And I was targeting February 24th low from the daily chart

Is there a I'm going to I'm going to show the executions cuz for some reason it doesn't look like my executions are showing

Even though I'm logged into my tradovate account

That's all I was just targeting that February 24th low

So my bias was already planned

Ahead of time

Okay I'm not coming into the market and saying oh this looks like a nice buy-side in Balance let me buy it

No that's against what my hard time from narrative is telling me

Mike is overnight this looks bullish

It's breaking Market structure here rights training higher

Right but it's only doing that to induce

Buyers into the market

Okay so everything that I do is driven off of a higher time frame

Narrative

So this was my a.m. session short I didn't get out all the way at the low I could have right

As soon as he got close I believe I just collapse my full position here

When this candle formed

Okay

But this was another opportunity on a 5-minute time frame right is doing the same thing as it would on a daily or

It's just returning to a premium

From this swing

To then go lower targeting

Diesel stops

And then I took another

Short

Around lunch time p.m. session

I got in at 12:30ish

I sold short here right so when you're looking at this

All you have to do is understand what this is doing

Okay what we were just running out

Buy stops so what what is that doing it's it's whoever shorted it here right and didn't

Exit here

Let me just put a short position

I'm going to put a short position on

So if I'm entering a cell

Right where's my stock going

Above the high so what kind of order is that

It's a buy stop

So when it gets up there again

I'm using that person's buy stop

To sell to

I'm selling that

I didn't get any here I got it right here but

This is what the market should look like

If you're higher time frame narrative is

Bearish

You want to see price trade higher

Okay and it feels scary when your first learning it because emotionally

It just doesn't feel right like you want to

A lot of times you want to trade in the direction that the Market's going

Right but

You have to trade against

The narrative

Where is the short term narrative I have to trade against

Those Traders

I'm using his buy stop to sell to

Stop goes above the high it shouldn't Purge this High because it's already done it

Look how perfect the retest was

So a lot of this

Is building confidence selling when the candle looks bullish

Okay and look how perfect it is on the retest

Right

If you want to label any type of

You know

Retail pattern that's your head and shoulders

Or short-term High

I and I just closed around 2:50 because there's a final hour macro that can

Chicken which is this one Higher

So I'll show you my entries in my exits here

So this was that fair value the five minute fair value Gap

The one hour

And is 5 minute busy inversion I sold short here

As soon as that candle broke I sold another one

Okay

And I'm holding this is the weekly open

And the Deli open is the smaller dotted line

So I sold it here and I'm holding

Okay so this run higher was the news

That came out at 10:00 a.m.

Sorry this was right before 10:00 a.m.

Having confidence in holding a trade right when I'm in it here

It's treating against me prior to the news

But it's only trading up to the weekly open

So I can use that as a line of defense and look how perfect this retest is right there's a five minute fairly value Gap

Hear that I see

And I'm holding for that February 24 low

I and I exit at 3955 I believe it's

Just a little bit higher

Then where does data line is

I'm on demanding that the price gets to my level because often times it won't

But this is good enough right I believe this trade was a one to six risk of War ratio

There's plenty of opportunity in here to scale in

Going short and then collapsing the full position lower

So this was my

Short in the PM session we had a liquidity Purge

I shorted it here

While the candle was bullish still

And then I might stop is above

That high

I didn't hold this one either for full Target but this was

Of one to four I believe

Okay now this was

A quick trade like these trades happen very quickly but

A lot of times you'll get caught up

If you're not paying attention to the higher time for immortal

You get chopped around in your thinking that the Mark is bullish when it's really not

I mean there's opportunity in here to go long

But unless you're really skillful

It's hard to do

And if you're taking losses right if you're going long in here expecting the highs to be ran out

You're going to take a loss and try and go long again like this one might have panned out

But you're you're wrestling you're wrestling the market

All right

So building confidence

It caught it really does come from higher time frame narrative understanding that

And only trading in that direction

Okay I don't

Come to the market and just all of a sudden just change what I'm going to do

That's why it makes it very

Once you understand what to look for as far as

You know time of day

Day of week

Those things become kind of second nature because

Every single week almost

Not 100% every week form is differently but the idea is still the same we want to see

Monday Tuesday or Wednesday trade

Against

Where we're trying to go

We're going to try and position ourselves somewhere in that swing point to go the other direction

Really all you have to understand is what is the next weekly candle going to do

Right and how should that week form

We have a day and 17 hours left

If this closes bearish

Why would you pick a bottom

The market is consistently showing you

That it wants to trade lower right it doesn't mean it can't trade higher

But if it does let's say if it comes up in here

You possibly have another opportunity to go short

But as long as their signatures in price that

It wants to go One Direction we might end up going down below these laws this rejection block kind of looks

If

And is the volume down here

So

On a monthly basis

All we've done is Purge liquidity

We've already traded above the open traded lower

This could still have room to run

Now there's this trend line here

But you're bias really does need to come from these higher time frames and

When I first started out I wanted to do the same thing I wanted to hop into the one hour or the 5 minute

And you just lose sight of what the hard time frame is doing

These daily charts and these weekly charts and these monthly charts

We'll make your life so much easier if you just stay on sides

With a specific Trend or order flow

I'm not going to try and buy it down here cuz you're trying to catch a falling knife

The market needs to show you it needs to break Market structure to the upside before you get long and it hasn't done that yet

We've had

Lower lows lower highs

Okay

So I think I kind of covered enough

Let's see if I can go into

Aussie

So

I'm looking at these laws in here as low resistance liquid you're wrong so what makes it

Low resistance liquidity run

What we've had higher lows in here

So anytime there is a

An area where there's a

Lower low in place

Right and makes it a high resistance liquidity run

And it's a lot harder for price to trade down into that level

You see how long it takes this Market

To trade down there

Once that's cleared out

Now we can Target low resistance and then we have a huge expansion

All right so it doesn't have as much

You know resistance is the path of least resistance

This daily for Value I provided an awesome intraday short opportunity

Look how perfect it was it just kind of

Touched it just a tiny bit

I went over by three Pips

Inside of a daily

Premium

And 50% of the daily fair value Gap is being respected nicely

So let's drop down into a 1 hour

So these black lines in here is our daily fair value app

Now on the 1 hour

What do we see

Yeah this this city in here

And this

Hi is where the daily

Fair value Gap is inside of that

Daily premium

So if we can time

This high

Right the market trades higher to start the month

We want to see that if we're bearish

This is the Judas swing

Higher manipulate buyers into market and then lower

That's our first Target

Asian session we've created this the Lord and this love so

The Target that I have in mind though as a swing position

Is actually this low down here

Now

Mathematically

Fibonacci

Is a great tool to measure out projections

Right this is

You know it's engineered

This price swing is engineered

All right so these

Target levels will line up typically

With old levels

Old important levels

Where does this fair value Gap

Why

Why does that are Target too

Which is a symmetrical swing of this price one

Symmetrical swing is basically

One standard deviation so

I should be about 130 Pips from

They're here

130 Pips

Can be a measured move down here

Possibly

So I don't think I really have too much else to cover I think I talked a good amount on

How to build confidence how to just stick to a plan you can't

Have a hard time frame premise of mind and just all of a sudden let Interstate price action fool you

Into placing positions that are against

Your plan right

So I hope that you guys found this insightful if you have any questions just leave me a comment or

Shoot me a message

Take care thanks