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Crimean fetish of invaders...

Building defense lines, digging trenches and installing fortifications has recently become

something of a fetish in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Instead of "capture Kyiv

in 3 days" is being prepared for the defense of the occupied peninsula.

Of course, all this is done primarily for the internal Russian consumer, to show that the

"sacral" peninsula is protected and no sea landing or land counterattack threatens the cradle of the

Russian bacillus. But here's the question, what kind of sea landing force are they preparing for?

Ukraine does not have enough landing assets, in particular large, medium,

small landing ships and boats to implement such a landing.

In addition, the presence of the Russians mobile coastal defence missile system

"Bastion" threatens such a scenario with large losses, as well as the process of landing.

In other words, the Russians are preparing right now in the occupied Crimea for a scenario that

will not be realized under any circumstances. This leads one to believe that there is now a

banal embezzlement of budgetary funds in Crimea as if it were the last one.

Why "as the last time," though? That’s the last one.

In addition, it is funny that the coastline in a number of locations dig trenches where,

even theoretically, the landing would not be made, because it is not rational and stupid.

But still, if we talk about the liberation of Crimea, what will be the scenario?

I am of the opinion that it would be the Snake Island scenario, adapted for

a slightly larger territory. The scenario of complete isolation of the Crimean peninsula

from the outside world and methodical, systematic annihilation of the occupants.

The main task of the AFU to start the active phase of this scenario is to

reach the administrative border of the peninsula.

After that, the formation of a shock and fire capability will begin in order to carry out

the tasks of destroying all military facilities and military infrastructure on the peninsula.

In fact, the AFU can provide four defeat zones, taking into account the existing and prospective

means of defeat that the Ukrainian side can receive (or already receives).

And these zones are quite enough to force the Russian troops to total shrink in the southern

location, denuding or at least weakening the north and center of the peninsula.

In turn, an important point will be the infliction of critical damage to the only

logistic artery connecting mainland Russia and the peninsula - the Crimean bridge.

Thus, the contingent of Russian troops on the peninsula will find itself in isolation and will

suffer daily losses, which will not be possible to restore. That is, a daily minus, which will

lead after some time to a complete loss of combat effectiveness of the occupant units in Crimea.

This is just one of the scenarios that I see most clearly, but on the table at the

AFU General Staff, I’m pretty sure there are several of them and some of them far

more unexpected than this template sketch of a larger operation than was on Snake Island.

But overall, the fetish that Russian propaganda has created around Crimea looks pretty shabby,

given how the liberation of the peninsula is seen in reality.

Pack your bags, the trenches won't help. On the contrary, you will be buried in those trenches.