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I will start with intelligence from BritishĀ
intelligence and the AFU General Staff.
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British intelligence: VuhledarĀ
is under heavy artillery fire.Ā Ā
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It is likely that the occupiers will makeĀ
another assault attempt. Russian General Muradov,Ā Ā
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who is responsible for this area, is under greatĀ
political pressure and will certainly do so,Ā Ā
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despite the fact that he clearly lacks theĀ
strength to make a significant breakthrough.
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AFU General Staff: due to the huge losses atĀ
Vuhledar, the so-called "Cossack volunteerĀ Ā
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detachment", which plugged the holes ofĀ
the 155th Marine Brigade after its defeat,Ā Ā
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refuses to participate further in the offensive.
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The Russian Armed Forces have been developingĀ
an offensive in the areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka,Ā Ā
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Marinka, Vuhledar, Kreminna andĀ
Kupyansk for about a month now.Ā Ā
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This is the "major offensive" of which they haveĀ
been talking so much, calling it a "big offensive.
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The idea of the enemy General Staff was to developĀ
the offensive in many directions, creating theĀ Ā
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most difficult situation in the Bakhmut directionĀ
and solving the problem of disposing of the WagnerĀ Ā
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group at the same time. To force the UkrainianĀ
General Staff to throw reserves into the BakhmutĀ Ā
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direction, and in the meantime to strikeĀ
the main blow in the Vuhledar direction.
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Vuhledar, unlike Bakhmut or otherĀ
directions, is a key point and itsĀ Ā
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capture is of paramount importance for theĀ
further occupation of the Donetsk region.
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To create a sense of a large offensive inĀ
the directions of Kupyansk and Kreminna theĀ Ā
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forces of special operations were involved.Ā
They were not supposed to break through theĀ Ā
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front or occupy new territories, but toĀ
ensure the intensity of combat operations,Ā Ā
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thereby creating an alarming situation for theĀ
Ukrainian General Staff from these directions.
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Many Russian actions in the aforementionedĀ
directions were not so much a full-fledgedĀ Ā
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offensive as an imitation offensive with theĀ
sole purpose of confusing the Ukrainian command.
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The offensive at Vuhledar, which wasĀ
the main effort, followed strictly theĀ Ā
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Soviet military doctrine. First the mechanizedĀ
infantry tried to break through the defenses,Ā Ā
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and when they thought they had succeeded,Ā
a tank battalion was introduced.Ā Ā
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The plan was to finally break through theĀ
defenses and bypass the city by encircling it.
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We have all seen the result. In the end, all theseĀ
attempts were a failure; the tanks were burned,Ā Ā
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and the infantry was eventually knockedĀ
out and pushed back from the city.
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The tank offensive was supportedĀ
by the Russian special forces,Ā Ā
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which was also beaten, losing not only part ofĀ
its personnel, but also its senior commanders.
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That defeat effectively nullifiedĀ
the entire Russian offensive,Ā Ā
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which had been in preparation for months.
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There is an important remark here: despite theĀ
failure of the operation, the Russian GeneralĀ Ā
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Staff of the Armed Forces did not dare to activateĀ
its reserve of tens of thousands of mobilized men.Ā Ā
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This is true in terms of the art of war - youĀ
only use the reserves to develop success inĀ Ā
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case of a successful offensive, or to useĀ
them during active defense to plug holes.
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The Russian General Staff is now waitingĀ
for a retaliatory Ukrainian counterattackĀ Ā
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and will use this reserve precisely to containĀ
the Ukrainian assault and mechanized brigades.
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