Original subtitles

"Decisive battles await Ukraine from the middle to the end of spring, and this will

be a turning point in the war. If you apply the soccer analogy to the 12th month of the war,

the score is now 1 to 1, and the minute is 70. This is a subjective vision," the

head of Ukrainian intelligence told Budanov in an interview with Forbes.

Ukrainian forces are holding their ground, although heavy fighting is

taking place all along the line. The most difficult now is to the north of Bakhmut.

Under Bakhmut, the enemy is throwing more and more forces, just to achieve at least some result.

For the most part, they are working in the form of combined brigades - convicts from

the Wagner Group, regular units of the Russian army,

and there are even already militants from the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk republics.

The Russians have a strategic goal of reaching the

administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31 at any cost.

That, the previously announced "big Russian offensive" has begun and is already underway.

But it is going on in such a way that it does not look like a big offensive.

It's like that bad movie - the trailer was better than the work itself. Yes, there are difficult

sections, but otherwise - nothing that Ukrainian army fighters have not previously encountered.

Near Bakhmut, the occupants are changing tactics. Infantry is coming in wave after wave,

and Russian artillery now supports only rare units of armored vehicles. Remember we used to talk

about the enemy's shell hunger? This is it, not in all directions, but the trend is already clear.

For two months now Russian troops have been living in the most ammunition-saving mode.

They are now being used more or less normally only in Bakhmut and Limansk direction.

Russia's artillery stockpile has reached 30 percent, the remnants of missiles are

almost exhausted, and the entire Russian defense industry can produce about 40 missiles a month.

Russia produces far fewer shells than it uses and it will not be possible

to deploy more production because Russia is not even the Soviet Union.

After victory, Ukraine should create a "security zone" around its border.

A demilitarized zone with permanent control. From 40 to 100 km deep into Russian territory.

I will also read the fresh statements of two other intelligence agencies.

German intelligence believes that the Kremlin leadership can mobilize up to a million more

people for the war against Ukraine. The main thing to understand is that they cannot do it all at

once, only in 3-4 stages. The usual replacement of the recycled occupiers, nothing new.

British Intelligence: "Putin in his speeches continues to say that the

war is an existential threat to Russia, while also claiming that all is well and

is going according to plan. The simultaneous use of these theses

makes both meaningless. You'd think he was saying something logical before that.