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So several scenarios for the end of the war have emerged.
But there is no one that would suit all sides.
The first one is Russian. To fix the results for today, a cease-fire, a long pause for preparation
and a new war in X years. And the Ukrainians and their partners understand this very well.
The least likely scenario, I would say zero.
The second is the Ukrainian scenario, supported by its partners as well. Russia withdraws its troops
to the borders of '91, negotiations begin about compensation, war criminals, further coexistence.
This does not suit Russia categorically.
This is also because after the liberation of the territories occupied before '22,
and especially after, such a horror will be uncovered there that we will all shudder.
And in Russia itself it will be perceived as a defeat, with relevant consequences: revanchism,
distemper and the like. It is not for nothing that everyone there rushed to get private armies.
The third is the Chinese scenario, which has replaced the Turkish one.
Russia withdraws its troops to the borders of a full-scale invasion, declares the goals of the
operation complete, and begins negotiations on further coexistence. Otherwise China threatens
to start providing military assistance to Russia. We will talk about this some time later or not.
The fourth is military. Ukraine is gathering the necessary reserves,
breaking through the front near Melitopol, reaching the Sea of Azov and creating
conditions for the isolation of Crimea and a threat to the separatist republics.
Judging by President Biden's visit, Ukraine's partners are betting on exactly this option.
If you have your own option - share in the comments below the video.
I also want to comment on one piece of news. "Serbia will refuse to buy Russian MiG-29s
for the sake of planes from France." There is a curious point in this story.
Serbia received six fighters from Russia in 2017. In 2019, Belarus handed them 4 more units. Both
of these deliveries were at the expense of the transmitting party, meaning Serbia paid nothing.
Moreover, Russia paid for a full training course for Serbian pilots, which cost the Russian budget
more than $2 million. And all this was done, of course, not because of deep fraternal feelings,
but in an attempt to tighten the leash around the neck of the Serbian president even tighter.
Supplies of spare parts and components for regular maintenance and scheduled
repairs in Serbia were also carried out regularly.
But since 2022 the deliveries have obviously stopped and the strength of the Serbian MiG-29s
was not enough for a long time. For a year there are no deliveries of spare parts to
Serbia and Belgrade is already ready to consider options for their replacement.
You know what the funniest thing is going to be?
The funniest thing will be if Serbia will be able to buy French fighters Dassault Rafale. But only
on the condition of transferring its MiG-29 to Ukraine, even though through third hands.
That is, Russia itself will transfer the MiG-29 to the AFU at its own expense.
This will be a completely different, newest level for the Russian lend-lease!
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