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What's the word on Ramstein?
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I will say right away that the final resultsĀ
of the Ramstein meeting will be known closerĀ Ā
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to February 24, when most of the countries in theĀ
group plan to announce their military assistance.
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But some things can already be announced.
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Firstly, the head of the PentagonĀ
Austin has confirmed the thesis,Ā Ā
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that America will not block theĀ
countries, wishing to transfer F-16s,Ā Ā
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but will not transfer the planes themselves,Ā
because there are more urgent demands inĀ Ā
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armament. They are now covering Ukraine's needsĀ
in air defense, armored vehicles, and training.
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Secondly, there is talk about the planes andĀ
the process is moving, but we will not alwaysĀ Ā
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see this movement. The head of the NetherlandsĀ
Defense Ministry said that the negotiations onĀ Ā
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fighter jets will go on in a closed format. AsĀ
the phrase goes "all in good time". The GermanĀ Ā
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Minister of Defense clearly has a better sense ofĀ
the conjuncture regarding the terms of assistanceĀ Ā
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to Ukraine than his predecessor. That is why heĀ
changed his position "under no circumstances" toĀ Ā
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"we will consider it in 3-4 months afterĀ
Ukraine's air defense is strengthened".
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Third, Sky News reports that the US governmentĀ
will provide Ukraine with a package of budget aidĀ Ā
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of $ 10 billion and separately another largeĀ
package of military aid until February 24.Ā Ā
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I think this $10 billion will be usedĀ
primarily to maintain the stability ofĀ Ā
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payments to the military, andĀ
secondarily to free up budgetĀ Ā
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funds so that Ukraine can buy itsĀ
own weapons for "non-escalation."
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Fourthly, Sweden confirmed that there wasĀ
a request from Ukraine for Gripen fighters,Ā Ā
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but again stressed that there areĀ
restrictions and air defense priority.
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Now to the informal.
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For me, the behavior of Ukrainian DefenseĀ
Minister Reznikov was interesting - uncovered joy,Ā Ā
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performance with a handkerchief on which wasĀ
depicted the plane even before RamsteināsĀ Ā
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decisions. It says either there is a reason toĀ
be optimistic, or the man is an optimist in life.
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In general, notice an interestingĀ
thing - how little the press coveredĀ Ā
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the long-awaited Ramstein, how restrained andĀ
very balanced everyone is in their comments.Ā
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Reznikov: "They talked about tanks".
Austin: "Working on immediate needs."Ā
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Stoltenberg: "What matters is the speed atĀ
which fighters can be provided to Ukraine.
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I have a feeling that there is a very strongĀ
security information control going on rightĀ Ā
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now in order to outplay Moscow. EverythingĀ
is going on within the framework of the USĀ Ā
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statement that they will create conditions forĀ
Ukraine to go on a spring counteroffensive.Ā Ā
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F-16s, Gripen obviously will not make it by theĀ
date, so they will limit themselves to FlankersĀ Ā
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and Fulcrums, which will become known only whenĀ
they are already in Ukraine as it was with theĀ Ā
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Polish disassembled MiGs. And the priority now isĀ
faster armored support capabilities, artillery,Ā Ā
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accumulation of the necessary amount ofĀ
ammunition, high-precision projectiles,Ā Ā
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and other things that could potentiallyĀ
be delivered in a couple of months.Ā Ā
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All this with a gradual strengthening ofĀ
air defenses to protect future aircraft.
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No one expected a conflict ofĀ
such intensity and duration,Ā Ā
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as it had not been since theĀ
end of the Second World War.Ā Ā
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And in a few days it will be a year sinceĀ
the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
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